STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 10 - Thread #2

[UpInArms]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 10, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 102
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2817 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2542 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2833
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES


AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBorder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 9, 2008

Dow... 8,579.19 -675.97 (-7.30%)
Nasdaq... 1,645.12 -95.21 (-5.47%)
S&P 500... 909.92 -75.02 (-7.62%)
Gold future... 886.50 -20.00 (-2.21%)
30-Year Bond 4.12% +0.06 (+1.40%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.83% +0.12 (+3.20%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver



PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!

Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government



Read more: du

---

(UIA filling in for Ozy and making executive decisions)

[blueclown]

1. Thank goodness Shrub didn't speak for more than 5 minutes.

We were on the verge of massive bank runs.

[Dr.Phool]

2. Did they stop trading or something?

I just got back from taking the Fudd to the dog park, and MSNBC etc, son't have any numbers.

Did Chimpolini scare the hell out of everyone?

[Warpy]

4. He's always good for a market dive

At least today it was a drive by press conference, blissfully brief. He answered no questions, of course. His gang are out of glib answers. They're busted, folks.

[blueclown]

6. Chimpolini?

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

[progressive_realist]

3. Think we'll reach three threads today?

We still have five long hours to go...

:hide:

[Dr.Phool]

5. I'll save space.

I'm going to head down to Costco for essentials.

[TalkingDog]

10. Every time you leave, you cuss when you come back.

Should I ready my cotton wool?

[Robbien]

8. Those of us on dialups are very grateful

even more so on a day such as today

Opening up yesterday's thread is painful on this computer of mine.

[UpInArms]

7. 10:55 EST numbers

Dow 8,350.68 228.51 (2.66%)
Nasdaq 1,606.34 38.78 (2.36%)
S&P 500 882.68 27.24 (2.99%)
10-Yr Bond 3.884% 0.05

NYSE Volume 3,131,005,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,135,709,250

[Roland99]

9. No word yet, that I'm aware of, from the Lehman CDS auction. Timeline >>>>

9:45 a.m.-10 a.m. Auction participants will submit bids and offers for the debt backing the credit default swaps, which will be used to determine the initial recovery rate of the swaps.

10:30 a.m. Auction administrators Creditex and Markit will publish the initial recovery price and the open interest for the contracts will be published. The open interest reflects the amount of bids and offers that have been made, and will show if there are more buyers than sellers, or vice versa.

12:45 p.m. -1 p.m. Participating dealers will submit limit orders for the debt on behalf of themselves and their clients to fill the open interest

2 p.m. The final price of the auction will be published.

[Roland99]

12. Lehman default swaps may recover 9.75 pct area

Lehman default swaps may recover 9.75 pct area
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN1038718020081010

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Banks, hedge funds and other sellers of protection on Lehman Brothers LEH.N (LEHMQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are facing losses in the area of 90.25 percent of the insurance they sold, based on the initial results of an auction on Friday to determine the value of the credit default swaps.

There are also substantially more sellers than buyers of the debt in the auction, indicating that the final price of the swaps may be even lower than the initial recovery levels of 9.75 percent, according to results published by auction administrators Creditex and Markit.

The net open interest to sell the debt is $4.92 billion, they said.

The auction to settle Lehman's credit default swaps will be one of the largest settlements of contracts in the $55 trillion market, with around $400 billion in contract volumes estimated on Lehman's debt.

[Tansy_Gold]

14. Okay. Now explain that in terms a real person can understand

Does this mean that "investors" who "bought" these credit default swaps then paid additional sums to "protect" their "investment" against a Lehman default?

Like buying a house and then buying insurance in case the house is built on top of a toxic waste dump?

Only now the investments are turning toxic and the insurance is just as toxic?

I still wanna know -- WHERE DID ALL THE REAL MONEY GO???? WHO'S GOT IT AND HOW DO WE GET IT BACK???




Tansy Gold :grr:

[Roland99]

16. I believe they're mostly 3rd party transactions. CDS can involve no one involved in...

the original transaction at all.

Sorta like betting on games in Vegas.

[Tansy_Gold]

37. Okay, so it's like ----

I sell my house in Buckeye, AZ for 340K. I bet with Friend A that the value is going to drop to $125K in less than 36 months. I then pay Friend B to "insure" that bet in case it does go down to $125 but Friend A can't pay on the bet? Payment to friend B is based on his determination of how trustworthy/creditworthy friend A is on paying on his bets, rather than on the actual likelihood of either of us winning the bet?

Are we getting close here?

And we're relying on our tax dollars to pay off on the bet if either friend A or friend B can't/won't?




Tansy Gold, looking for a larger and hotter :grr:

[Roland99]

42. I believe you have it in a nutshell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap


Sorta like gap insurance when you buy or lease a new car but the person buying the gap insurance could be some random stranger from the other side of the country.

[DemReadingDU]

21. I'm thinking everything is toxic

I don't know if there is anything of material value anymore. I don't know where all the real money went, probably to the super-wealthy 1%.

Family and friends/neighbors, that is what it all is coming down to.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

117. Collectives are the answer!

[Robbien]

27. Who has it

Just look at the Forbes 400 list. Five to ten years ago only the top five people were billionaires. Now, to get on the list you have to have more than just one billion dollars.

Then look at private equity companies such as Carlyle. Well, you can't really see how much they have because they are private, but by the amount of business they are doing their worth is dramatically increased.

[AnneD]

136. Tansy

The money on Wall Street has been washed more times that a Las Vegas hooker's undies by now.....


Please consider this for a Duzzy, it does get funny in here at times

[Tansy_Gold]

161. Might not be any more times than

a Wall Street trader's undies these days.


:evilgrin:

[AnneD]

197. At least a hooker...

puts in an honest days work:evilgrin: Those girls that work the Strip work hard for their money. I have an immense amount of respect for them-esp after I went there with Mom and Dad for the family vaca and watched them work.

[Robbien]

18. Bloomberg is reporting that bets on this auction

were trading at an average of 13 cents on the dollar, indicating credit swap sellers would have to pay 87 cents.

[Roland99]

22. That appeared to be referring to yesterday. >>>>>

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiMj9KoKg_CM&refer=home

Preliminary results of the auction to determine the size of the settlement on Lehman credit-default swaps set an initial value of 9.75 cents on the dollar for the debt, according to Creditfixings.com, a Web site run by auction administrators Creditex Group Inc. and Markit Group Ltd. A final price is scheduled to be announced at 2 p.m. New York time.

The payment would be higher than indicated by trading in Lehman's $128 billion of bonds yesterday. The debt was trading at an average of 13 cents on the dollar, indicating credit swap sellers would have to pay 87 cents.

More than 350 banks and investors signed up to settle credit-default swaps tied to Lehman. No one knows exactly how much is at stake because there's no central exchange or system for reporting trades. It's that lack of transparency that has increased the reluctance of financial institutions to do business with each other, exacerbating the global credit crisis and prompting calls for regulation of the market.

The list of participants includes Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's largest bond fund, Chicago-based hedge fund manager Citadel Investment Group LLC, and American International Group Inc., the New York-based insurer taken over by the government, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association in New York.

[Roland99]

52. Brief update >>>>>>

Due to the large open interest, the secondary bidding period for the Lehman auction opened a few minutes early, and is to be extended to 1:30pm. Final results will be published at 2pm as expected.

[Roland99]

86. Final Results of the Lehman Brothers Auction, Friday 10th October 2008

This doesn't bode well.

http://www.creditfixings.com/information/affiliations/fixings/auctions/current/lehbro-res.shtml

Final Results of the Lehman Brothers Auction, Friday 10th October 2008
Final Price: 8.625

On Friday 10th October 2008, 14 dealers submitted inside markets, physical settlement requests and limit orders to the Lehman Brothers auction administered by Creditex and Markit to settle trades across the market referencing Lehman Brothers.


Dealer Bid Offer Dealer
Banc of America Securities LLC 9.5 11.5 Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Bank PLC 8 10 Barclays Bank PLC
BNP Paribas 9 11 BNP Paribas
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.25 11 Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC 8 10 Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Deutsche Bank AG 8 10 Deutsche Bank AG
Dresdner Bank AG 9.5 11.5 Dresdner Bank AG
Goldman Sachs & Co 8.875 10.875 Goldman Sachs & Co
HSBC Bank USA, National Association 10 12 HSBC Bank USA, National Association
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association 9 11 JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated 8 10 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated 8.25 10.25 Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
The Royal Bank of Scotland PLC 9.25 11.25 The Royal Bank of Scotland PLC
UBS Securities LLC 8.75 10.75 UBS Securities LLC

[bemildred]

90. Damn! nt

[Roland99]

98. Markets responding by bouncing like a chihuahua on crack.

[bemildred]

125. Yep. Massive conniption fit. nt

[paparush]

11. The Post-Bush** Address Plunge (tm) is ON! -359 4.1%

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. You noticed that too? Stupid speaks and it goes down

[JNelson6563]

13. Good call UIA.

A crazy day on the Street and lots of info for the Stock Thread. :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. 11:28 EST falling back again - almost 400 points down

Dow 8,189.63 389.56 (4.54%)
Nasdaq 1,581.61 63.51 (3.86%)
S&P 500 865.09 44.83 (4.93%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 3,875,692,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,395,053,125

[Hugin]

17. ~11:30 EMT: Medic!

Dow 8,165.02 -414.17 (-4.83%)
Nasdaq 1,578.69 -66.43 (-4.04%)
S&P 500 862.90 -47.02 (-5.17%)

10y bond 3.85% -0.01 (-0.26%)

:hide:

:happyplace:

[Roland99]

19. -371. I think range trading is gone for a while.

[Roland99]

31. I say that but then look at the symmetry in today's chart.

http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?style=1043&size=1&type=256&uf=8192&time=1dy&freq=1mi&sid=&symb=indu

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. If the witching hour does not play a role

we may have found a floor

[Mojorabbit]

55. down -423.57 at 1:18pm nt

[54anickel]

20. So when do Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley take over for the Federal Reserve "Bank"?

http://www.cnbc.com//id/27114651

As the financial crisis threatens to spiral out of control, it’s more likely Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will take extraordinary steps through the extensive authority granted to him under emergency rescue legislation, say analysts.

With the legislation’s main mechanism—an auction system to purchase bad mortgage-based securities—still weeks away from implementation, Paulson may have to inject capital into any number of financial institutions—even non-depository ones like investment banks, insurers and hedge funds.

“I don't wish to spread alarm on the line people but the big issue confronting the market is I'm afraid the health and sustainability of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs ," Hugh Hendry, Partner and CIO at Eclectica, told CNBC. "It is unimaginable that they can be allowed to go, I suspect that they will nationalized at some point today or over the weekend," he add.

Some say the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008’s vague language gives Paulson almost unlimited power to intervene.

“He’s free to just strike deals, to do special deals,” says Lawrence White, a former White House economist and savings and loan regulator, who adds Congress was aware of the powers being given to Paulson and thus pressed hard for an oversight board.

more...


edit to add thread on this article

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3537120

[mile18blister]

23. A 450 page bill

and they couldn't figure out a way to restrict Paulson's powers.:banghead:

[Robbien]

92. Interesting Article: Financial Warfare and the Future of Global Bank Power

By F. William Engdahl
http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_28467.shtml

There is serious ground to believe that US Goldman Sachs ex CEO Henry Paulson, as Treasury Secretary, is not stupid. There is also serious ground to believe that he is actually moving according to a well-thought-out long-term strategy. Events as they are now unfolding in the EU tend to confirm that. As one senior European banker put it to me in private discussion, ‘There is an all-out war going on between the United States and the EU to define the future face of European banking.’

In this banker’s view, the ongoing attempt of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and France’s Nicholas Sarkosy to get an EU common ‘fund’, with perhaps upwards of $300 billion to rescue troubled banks, would de facto play directly into Paulson and the US establishment’s long-term strategy, by in effect weakening the banks and repaying US-originated Asset Backed Securities held by EU banks.

Using panic to centralize power

[Pooka Fey]

102. Thanks Robbien, this looks interesting. nt

[Karenina]

106. Yep, yep!!!

[54anickel]

198. Thanks Robbien. Something more to chew on.n/t

[Dr.Phool]

213. bookmarked that for later tonight.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Capitulation day? It is acting like it

so lets see how this goes

[bemildred]

26. Crude drops back below $80 in late morning trading

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude dropped to $79.50 a barrel, down $7.09, or 8.2%, late Friday morning in electronic trading on Globex. The contract touched a one-year low of $78.61 earlier. "Global economic fears and uncertainty continue to plague everything," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial. "This is a liquidity crisis, and oil is right in the middle of it." November reformulated gasoline lost 8.6% to $1.853 a gallon and November natural gas fell 2.3% to $6.67 per million British thermal units.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crude-drops-back-below-80/story.aspx?guid=%7BE1B24D8A%2DA36E%2D4366%2DB033%2D4E5E147B284A%7D

[hunter]

34. I hate it when I'm right.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3287805&mesg_id=3288186

"Show me $60 bbl oil again and I'll show you a U.S. economy that's a smoldering ruin."

-- hunter, April 28, 2008

[bemildred]

38. Me too.

Bubbles pop. If that was not a bubble, I don't know bubbles. I dunno if we're going to see $60 again, but we might.

Oh, and an attaboy for you.
:applause:

[Roland99]

41. Retail gas still $1 - $1.20/gal over wholesale, though. GOUGING!

[UpInArms]

71. Nov. crude down 9.4% to $78.49/brl after 1-yr. low of $78.14

1:44 p.m.
Crude futures steepen losses in afternoon Globex trading

1:44 p.m.
Nov. crude down 9.4% to $78.49/brl after 1-yr. low of $78.14

well, look what happens when the investment banks can't keep manipulating the price higher

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

75. Nov. crude down 10.4% at $77.62/brl on Globex

01. Nov. crude below $78/brl on Globex, lowest since Sept.'07
1:50 PM ET, Oct 10, 2008

02. Nov. crude down 10.4% at $77.62/brl on Globex
1:50 PM ET, Oct 10, 2008

[Roland99]

28. 11:51am - Full stats update. Falling down after a piehole opening

DJIA 8,127.90 -451.29 -5.26%
Nasdaq 1,574.81 -70.31 -4.27%
S&P 500 857.69 -52.23 -5.74%
Dow Util 310.84 -33.47 -9.72%
NYSE 5,452.17 -357.81 -6.16%
AMEX 1,267.27 -103.55 -7.55%
Russell 2000 478.62 -20.58 -4.12%
Semcond 237.96 -10.47 -4.21%
30-Year Bond 4.13% +0.01 +0.17%
10-Year Bond 3.86% +0.03 +0.70%
Oil $80.90 -$5.69
Gold future 895.60 +9.10 +1.03%

[Lasher]

32. How does he manage to do that every single time?

If I still owned any stock I would sell right before his piehole explodes on the scene yet again.

[Roland99]

33. Not just him. Bernanke and Paulson have managed to trigger big dips, too.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. Hoover had that gift too

the few times he went on national radio

[bread_and_roses]

29. Is anyone else finding commercials for investment houses grimly hilarious these days?

I am particularly entranced by the Morgan-Stanley commercial (even more so in light of today's headline re: nationalization here in LBN) - "the markets! the marketplace! the flow of information, money! cities! factories! serious men and women in suits! lush suites! boardrooms! ALL YOUR WORLD BELONG TO US!"

The other firms commercials are amusing as well, but Morgan-Stanley - Oh My!

And being a TB racing enthusiast, I noticed on the Bloodhorse the other day that one of the big TB sales was down down down....that's some real money that plays around at those sales - are even they "economizing?". And if I remember aright, AIG has been a commercials buyer on the few big network racing broadcasts - along with other investment houses. Find myself wondering how much time they'll be buying next May for the KD?

(on edit - not sure "investment houses" is the right term - I honestly can't be bothered learning the terminology - so apologies and mea culpas etc in advance if so

[specimenfred1984]

45. Always have. Remember the guy who said "I like stress"?

That douchebag went bankrupt. America is full of jerks who "put on a suit and lie".

[Roland99]

48. Won't be seeing Wachovia or WaMu by then. But, as an aside....

Went to Keeneland this past Sunday on a date. Was opening weekend and the place was packed!

[bain_sidhe]

30. The Pool remains locked...

and we might even see a winner today. It's already below the target value; if it stays there, Ghost Dog and I win! If we do, I'll post my very own Hard Times Recipe from the time in my life when $5 worth of food had to last a week. (Of course, that was many, many years ago, when $5 bought a lot more food! Canned soup was 35 cents, a package of rice was under $1.00.)

(And I can't believe we're already on thread 2!!!!)

---

The Rules, per Prag:

Guess the date for when the Dow will close down 20% of it's value from the Great Reset value of 10,578. That would be 8462.59. I doubt anyone could claim there isn't a recession at that value.

Similar rules to AnneD's pool apply... HARSH REGULATION WILL BE OBSERVED! The pool will lock at 500 points above the target value or 8963.59.

---

The Pool will reopen if a miracle recovery happens and the Dow goes above the "lock" target of 8462.59

Anyway, as the pool stands now:

bain_sidhe... 10/10/08
Ghost Dog... 10/10/08

Tansy_Gold... 10/13/08 (Note: Happy Birthday, Tansy!)
MadinMo... 10/14/08
dweller... 10/15/08
Demeter... 10/15/08
loudsue... 10/16/08
Birthmark... 10/17/08
Karenina... 10/20/08
whrab... 10/23/08
CatholicEdHead... 10/23/08 (IBTL!!)
AnneD... 10/24/08 (Note: AnneD is a Sentimentalist)
Neshanic... 10/24/08
Roland99... 10/27/08
UpInArms... 10/28/08
TBUSA...10/29/08 (Note: In before the weekend rush!)
Dr.Phool... 10/30/08
MsLeopard... 10/31/08 (Note: BOO!)
Wednesdays... 11/05/08
krispos42... 11/6/08
Pigwidgeon... 11/17/08

---

ACK! Edited for grammatical errors!

[TalkingDog]

35. You fixed the Pool? Shocking!

no, really...good luck(?)

or something.....

[bain_sidhe]

39. I know! You'd think I was a banker or something!

Seriously, though, I'm only running it because Prag's graphics card is having fits. It's really his pool. Besides I picked this date several days ago--thinking I was being silly!

[bain_sidhe]

205. And we have winners!

I posted below, too, but in case you're looking here for it:

To repeat the rules from Prag:

---

Guess the date for when the Dow will close down 20% of it's value from the Great Reset value of 10,578. That would be 8462.59. I doubt anyone could claim there isn't a recession at that value.

Similar rules to AnneD's pool apply... HARSH REGULATION WILL BE OBSERVED! The pool will lock at 500 points above the target value or 8963.59.

---

Picking today were:

bain_sidhe... 10/10/08
Ghost Dog... 10/10/08

The DJIA closed at 8,451.19, which is –128.00.

Um... now what (I'm new at this...)?

Oh, yeah, and on edit:

As promised, my "hard times" recipe from my own hard times:

1 can of condensed soup
1 can of water
about 2/3 can of rice

simmer for 20 minutes or until all water is absorbed and viola! a reasonably nutritious casserole that feeds a single person for two days, with a little left over for the dog (not cats though, they require more protein). The soup doesn't really matter (I personally liked Minestrone, but vegetable beef works too. Just make sure you have some veggies and at least a little bit of meat, for nutritional purposes. Also, you might need to adjust the rice depending on how much liquid is in it. Generally, rice needs two times as much liquid as rice to cook properly.

[Roland99]

43. 12:40pm - 75-100pt swings are nothing anymore.

Dow 8,213.84 -365.35
Nasdaq 1,574.99 -70.13
S&P 500 864.75 -45.17
10-year 3.85% +0.01
Oil $80.90 -$5.69
Gold $895.00 $8.50

[bemildred]

44. VIX hit 74 today. Up 15%. nt

[Lasher]

46. The S&P got down to 815 in 2002 during the first Bush 43 recession

Approaching that now. It's back to 867 right now.

[TrogL]

47. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie TSE

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-08-29 Friday, August 29 0.949938 USD
2008-09-01 Monday, September 1 0.940645 USD
2008-09-02 Tuesday, September 2 0.934754 USD
2008-09-03 Wednesday, September 3 0.942507 USD
2008-09-04 Thursday, September 4 0.93985 USD
2008-09-05 Friday, September 5 0.940115 USD
2008-09-08 Monday, September 8 0.935104 USD
2008-09-09 Tuesday, September 9 0.936593 USD
2008-09-10 Wednesday, September 10 0.931532 USD
2008-09-11 Thursday, September 11 0.926183 USD
2008-09-12 Friday, September 12 0.942863 USD
2008-09-15 Monday, September 15 0.937207 USD
2008-09-16 Tuesday, September 16 0.931359 USD
2008-09-17 Wednesday, September 17 0.926956 USD
2008-09-18 Thursday, September 18 0.934929 USD
2008-09-19 Friday, September 19 0.955201 USD
2008-09-22 Monday, September 22 0.963113 USD
2008-09-23 Tuesday, September 23 0.965717 USD
2008-09-24 Wednesday, September 24 0.96609 USD
2008-09-25 Thursday, September 25 0.967305 USD
2008-09-26 Friday, September 26 0.965997 USD
2008-09-29 Monday, September 29 0.962186 USD
2008-09-30 Tuesday, September 30 0.943663 USD
2008-10-01 Wednesday, October 1 0.942774 USD
2008-10-02 Thursday, October 2 0.928591 USD
2008-10-03 Friday, October 3 0.924642 USD
2008-10-06 Monday, October 6 0.906865 USD
2008-10-07 Tuesday, October 7 0.904568 USD
2008-10-08 Wednesday, October 8 0.889205 USD
2008-10-09 Thursday, October 9 0.870853 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8605 0.8605 0.8447 0.8447 -0.0298 -3.41% 11:02 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8585 0.8585 0.8360 0.8360 -0.0408 -4.65% 11:15 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8375 0.8375 0.8375 0.8375 -0.0414 -4.71% 11:14 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8796 -0.0169 -1.92% set 15:09 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8797 -0.0162 -1.84% set 15:09 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.9845 0.9845 0.9845 0.8798 -0.0162 -1.84% set 15:09 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8799 -0.0162 -1.84% set 15:09  

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7965 0.7965 0.7965 0.7965 +0.0403 +5.06%  
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.7075 1.7175 1.6987 1.6996 -0.0204 -1.20%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.7953 0.7954 0.7953 0.7954 +0.0026 +0.33%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 136.53 136.53 132.86 133.45 -3.08 -2.27%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.3562 1.3641 1.3498 1.3498 -0.0189 -1.38% %   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline, weekly support crossing at 85.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.51. Second resistance is broken support marked by September's low crossing at 92.22. First support is the overnight low crossing at 86.01. Second support is weekly support crossing at 85.97.

Analysis

I've added the TSE graph above. It's crashing again today, down over 400 points. The loonie's fallen two cents since opening - no idea why.

[54anickel]

49. Hey UIA, wonder what's going round Dimson's pea brain head these days. And where's Poppy and Baker

been through all this? The cocky lil sumabitch blew them off when they started buttin' in about Iraq. I can't believe they aren't somewhere in the background on this meltdown.

[UpInArms]

62. hiya 54anickel!

well, I suppose those nefarious folks are crouching in a corner working on their escape plan.

This ponzi scheme played out poorly, didn't it?

Have you enjoyed the loverly game of chicken in the past week? If you don't give me all your money, we'll lose 25% of the stock market.

Well, that worked out so very well for someone didn't it? and isn't it handy that oil is dropping now that the investment banks are not bidding it up and up and up and ....

those of us who called "manipulation" were shouted down with the "but China's using all our oil!" and it reminds me of Enron gutting California and when we called "manipulation" we were shouted down with "it's so expensive because of the environmentalists!"

oh well

:sigh:

just wonder how much my little town will be affected since they already lost the race back in the 80s

:hi:

[54anickel]

131. Definitely don't think this was part of the plan. Dimson seemed so resigned and

beaten down when handing the reins to Paulson, almost like he pouting while again following orders from Poppy and Uncle Jimmie.

[UpInArms]

135. rumor is that they have quit dying his hair and he's doing the "poor me"

routine on purpose - working on the sympathy vote

[54anickel]

165. Heh-heh, sympathy vote for who/what? (Sorry my last post was incoherent, took a phone call

in the middle of changing thoughts.)

Anyway, is what's happening to the economy evidence of Dimson yet again being a miserable failure or is he the mastermind of the greatest heist to date?

I think he fucked up (like every other time in his life), others say it's going as planned. What say ye oh wise sage?

[UpInArms]

217. was it planned?

well, Thomas Franks says it best in his book, The Wrecking Crew -

As I was reading the book, one thing I kept coming back to was the issue of incompetence. 'The Wrecking Crew' makes the point that much Republican incompetence is purposeful, for two reasons: One, when there are agencies whose goals they disagree with — the EPA or the Department of Labor, say — they purposely subvert them by doing a bad job. At other times they purposely do a bad job to convince people that government can't do anything.

Right.


But looking at the wreckage of Iraq and New Orleans and the subprime market — and the seemingly dismal prospects for the Republicans in November — I can't help but think that some of this incompetence is just ... incompetence. Is some of it unintentional?

Of course, some of it is just incompetence. But it's not just bad luck. It's not just that incompetent people happened to be hired. This is a movement that distrusts competence, that distrusts capable public servants. One of the most telling things that I found when I was researching the book was this essay from 1928, where this former president of the chamber of commerce made this amazing remark: "The best public servant is the worst public servant" — that having good people in government is a bad idea because they lead people to think that government works, and once people think that, you know, it's a slippery slope to communism. What's funny about that is it's not just this one lone crank saying this back during the Coolidge years. This is something that is repeated by the right all the time. They don't think that there should be competent people in government. They think that's a terrible mistake. It's not that they wanted to screw up in the aftermath of Katrina; it's that they had just mismanaged this agency into the ground.

[54anickel]

219. Sort of planned incompetence, so Bush's absolute mastery of incompetence was serendipity, a

doublegoodbonusplus!

I found this part of your article intriguing...

snip>

Well, that's the thing — ultimately, what they want is unpopular at the end of the day. Privatizing Social Security — that's a terrifically unpopular idea. Botching the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina — that turns out to have been a terrific blunder. The Iraq war — another one. I mean, all of their great moves have turned out to be disasters.

Do you think they'll retool their ideology or their plans for the next time around?

The thing is, they don't run on that stuff anyway — when they present themselves to the public, it's culture wars. They'll come up with something. You've got to remember, public cynicism toward government is very high right now. ... And the funny thing about cynicism is that it doesn't necessarily mean that the Democrats will get in. It might mean that in the short term, but in the long term it might also very well mean that the party that speaks to public cynicism best will profit from it. And that party, I'm sorry, that is the conservatives.

[UpInArms]

233. here's an early poll on how people are responding to the bailout:

(sorry about the source)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,436041,00.html

<snip>

When it comes to gauging the overall impact of the rescue package, one-third (33 percent) think it will help the economy at large — while most feel it will either have no impact (29 percent) or will end up hurting the economy (26 percent). Even fewer people (16 percent) think the bailout will help their own family’s financial situation — while nearly half (47 percent) think it will have no impact and almost one-third (28 percent) think it will hurt their personal finances.

How about our elected officials? The news is not good. A majority of voters (53 percent) thinks the bailout package shows that government leaders "have no idea what they’re doing." More remarkably, only 6 percent believes officials "know exactly what they’re doing and how the rescue plan will affect the economy." While the continued low ratings of both the president and Congress indicate a lack of confidence in Washington, these results are nevertheless staggering.

This new poll also shows that, philosophically, Americans of all stripes are averse to using taxpayer money to bail out financially troubled companies. More than 80 percent of Democrats, Republicans and independents agree on this view — a rare example of consensus this election year. Solid majorities in all three voter groups also believe that, given the current financial environment, lower taxes and smaller government are preferable to the alternative (66 percent of Democrats; 91 percent of Republicans; 72 percent of independents).

These data suggest that voters are highly displeased with the response of the federal government to the financial crisis that erupted over the last several weeks. Given the general agreement across party lines, it’s unclear what impact all of this will have on the presidential race.

<snip>

[Roland99]

50. Something re: the bank selloffs/takeovers I've been meaning to mention. A better solution?

I've been wondering why the large national banks that have failed haven't been divvied up to our regional banks. Seems we're just building up some more banks that are "too big to fail" to replace the ones that were already "too big to fail".

Why not shore up strong or moderately strong regional banks instead of creating more Frankensteins?

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. Sherman Antitrust... I suspect a version will come in the not to distant future

and will break some of these... as is we are going to nationalize the sector before this is over

[Roland99]

53. That'll stop the abusive and greedy practices.

:eyes:

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. So breaking up the banks is not a good idea?

As to the bank nationalization, got any better idea to unstick LIBOR?

[Roland99]

58. I meant the nationalization of them. Don't trust Congresscritters much more than CEOs

:)

[nadinbrzezinski]

61. Unfortunately it will have to happen

and in some circumstances it works wonders

We partially did that in the 1930s... Sweden did it to great effect as well

It truly depends on who is in charge and what are the motives.

Now if it goes wrong... Mexico comes to mind.

:-)

So it is not a cure all

But this is the only way to get banks that don't trust each other to lend to each other

[Roland99]

64. I suppose if it was an Obama administration, he'd have better cabinet pics

And can he give Bernanke a pink-slip after inauguration? :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. Bush signed the transition EO yesterday

way early

I suspect there is a gentleman's agreement to do the same that was done in '32.... FDR's people took over treasury within days... this time will be hours

[Wednesdays]

TED Spread at 4.62

Gotta love the little advertisement above the chart: "You've worked, you've saved, now PROTECT your nest egg." :rofl:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

On edit, maybe the "rofl" smilie isn't the most appropriate for this situation. Pick any one of the following:

:cry: :grr: :( :hide: :yoiks: :banghead: :argh: :puke: :mad: :scared: :hurts: :hangover: :shrug:

2nd edit: Holy crap! Down 600 already...if this is the beginning of another drop like yesterday, the Dow will lose 1500 points by close today! :wow:

[Roland99]

60. It sucks that we've all been mostly right in SMW... it's gonna have to burn itself out.

Nothing is going to fix this all.

Re-capitalizing banks would cost how many trillions? And is the resulting inflation worth that?

I don't see any way to avoid a hard crashing landing and substantial job losses.

[specimenfred1984]

67. There's only 1 way, start arresting a few corrupt (R)s

That's the only thing that would show the markets and the world that the U.S. is serious about reigning in the corruption. The markets would turn around in just a few days after that happened. Of course for that to happen, it'd take a legitimate gov't who's willing to admit and act on widespread corruption.

[Tansy_Gold]

201. Arrest them and seize assets, under RICO laws.

Start returning some of these fraudulently-acquired bazillions into the economy.

[Dr.Phool]

63. I'll choose the flushing.

It looks like that's where this whole thing is heading.

[UpInArms]

66. here's my new favorite:

[AnneD]

188. Oh...

let's get them to add that one....I like it. I also like the Jesus on a pogo stick too

[specimenfred1984]

54. G7 is talking about shutting world markets down for a while

Have fun trying to pull money out when the entire world markets have been Enron-401k'd.

[CatholicEdHead]

56. Shutting down markets will probably just delay the fall

It would have to be a long shutdown to let the fear drain from the markets.

[Roland99]

59. And what about people needing to sell stocks to survive!

[CatholicEdHead]

109. Only time will tell

There does not seem to be any silver bullet right now. What we apparently have is a crisis of trust between banks with Trojan Horse Credit Default Swaps.

We could do it but we would need to work hard to deal with the CDS during the shutdown so the floor is cleaned up a bit when it opens.

Any idea on how many Trillions of CDS are left on the world market? Around $40-50T?

[UpInArms]

65. U.S. exchanges considering temporary circuit breaker: WSJ

02. U.S. exchanges considering temporary circuit breaker: WSJ
1:24 PM ET, Oct 10, 2008

[nadinbrzezinski]

70. They ... should... not... have ... opened today

good, I feel better now

[UpInArms]

68. wow! you gotta read this to see how stupid people think and continue to be stupid

the lights are not coming on the vacant house

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/grasping-tea-leaves-1929-market/story.aspx?guid=%7BDAB94197%2DFAE3%2D4641%2D9B90%2DFD7A5A0319E6%7D&dist=hplatest

Those of us belonging to the Boomer generation were taught that the Depression had been so devastating to the nation and the economy that the government put safeguards in place to ensure it could never happen again.

And we believed it, convinced that our parents and grandparents were smart enough and cared enough about the nation's future to protect it from the Wall Street recklessness that landed the country in so much trouble back in President Hoover's day.

As added security, we took comfort from the fact that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is an avowed expert on the Depression. He could certainly keep the economy on track, even if we had some gnawing doubts.

All this made it easier for us to accept the move away from the promise of Social Security and defined pensions to the world of 401(k)s. It made it easier for us to buy into Wall Street's upbeat vision of a nation of investors, each of us a part of the big capitalist engine propelling us toward an affluent retirement the likes of which our parents could not have imagined.

Now, we're numb. The engine's sputtering, and we don't know what to do.

When President Bush asks the public to believe that the government has a "comprehensive strategy" for dealing with the crisis, as he did from the Rose Garden earlier Friday, is it any wonder Boomers are skeptical? Or is it any wonder our kids are now asking us whether they should turn their back entirely on this treacherous market and buy gold?

How ironic.

this guy was run over by the clue bus and died

:shrug:

[TrogL]

122. He's a Gold Bug. Ignore him.

[antigop]

158. "...easier for us to accept the move away from promise of SS and defined pensions to..401(k)'s--NOT!

I hope defined benefit pensions come back--the real kind, not the cash balance baloney.

Defined benefit pensions, actuarially funded with a real trust fund behind it,and COLAs--that's what I want to see.

[54anickel]

184. Maybe he forgot the sarcasm tag? n/t

[llmart]

230. Well, I'm a boomer.....

and not once did I buy into the notion that 401K's were better than a guaranteed pension. And my parents and grandparents never taught me any of that crap. My grandfather was a Socialist:)

[bemildred]

231. Yes. And it's worth mentioning that the "greatest generation" took damn fine care of themselves.

And they seemed to lose interest in us when we didn't support their stupid war in Vietnam.

[llmart]

234. AMEN!

I am so sick of the meme "greatest generation" that that stupid Tom Brokaw started. Talk about a sense of entitlement! When they came home they got everything handed to them through the GI bill. A lot of them now act like they just worked harder than our generation did. BS. No one gave us free college education and low cost mortgages.

[UpInArms]

72. 1:48 EST and it's time to say "goodbye 8000, we hardly knew you"

Dow 8,048.57 530.62 (6.18%)
Nasdaq 1,550.09 95.03 (5.78%)
S&P 500 848.84 61.08 (6.71%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 6,572,631,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,373,429,750

[UpInArms]

74. 1:50 EST - thar she blows! stand back, it's going to get messy!

Dow 7,986.69 592.50 (6.91%)
Nasdaq 1,546.79 98.33 (5.98%)
S&P 500 842.24 67.68 (7.44%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 6,629,974,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,383,895,750

[Hugin]

73. ~13:49 EMT: Cripes!

Dow 8,032.80 -546.39 (-6.37%)
Nasdaq 1,552.26 -92.86 (-5.64%)
S&P 500 848.84 -61.08 (-6.71%)

10y bond 3.85% -0.01 (-0.26%)

I just heard Crude is at approx $78.00/bbl.

Gas is down approx 11.0%

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. circuit breaker, circuit breaker... circuit breaker

they need to stop thinking bout it

[Dr.Phool]

87. Real brokers don't need circuit breakers.

They prefer firing squads or high buildings.

[AnneD]

191. no blindfoled...

and smoking unfiltered cigarette-Camels to be exact.:smoke:

[progressive_realist]

77. I predict today will end with the biggest drop so far this year.

Unfortunately, I have to leave for a lunch date and won't be back until after markets close, but I'm calling this as Black Friday. Since it is already down 500+ points with three hours to go and Fridays tend to end badly, it seems a fairly safe prediction.

:nuke:

[progressive_realist]

224. Woo-hoo! It worked.

Every time I make a prediction about anything, it proves false. You can thank me later. :P

[nadinbrzezinski]

78. Floor at 8000.... talking head on CNBC...

testing, testing, testing....

[Roland99]

82. Floor for today maybe. My gut-instinct floor was about 8,300 but that's destroyed.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 7,000 broken.

[nadinbrzezinski]

84. Well we still have the witching hour to go

but I am caustiously hopeful that we may find a floor

And MONDAY IT IS CLOSED, federal holiday

That will be good... mine was 8500... based on previous fibonachi... current is in the 7000 territory

[bemildred]

89. We do seem ot have a bounce ... nt

[Dr.Phool]

94. If Monday's a holiday, you can bet the tanking is yet to come.

[nadinbrzezinski]

96. Columbus day, it is...

[CatholicEdHead]

104. Exactly

I am waiting for 3pm CT/4pm ET to see if any automatic sell orders go off like yesterday. :yoiks: :hide:

[UpInArms]

91. 2:13 EST it's rising from the ashes - looks like a burn out phoenix

Dow 8,264.66 314.53 (3.67%)
Nasdaq 1,585.51 59.61 (3.62%)
S&P 500 866.56 43.36 (4.77%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 7,236,965,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,637,504,500

[Roland99]

93. Uncertainty removed from Lehman auction relieving the markets?

[UpInArms]

Lehman CDS will recover 8.625 pct after auction

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1038084520081010

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Sellers of protection on bankrupt Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (LEHMQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) will have to pay out 91.375 percent of the insurance they sold, based on the results of an auction on Friday to determine the value of the credit default swaps.

The final value of the contracts, which are estimated to be around $400 billion in volume, will be 8.625 percent, according to results published by auction administrators Creditex and Markit.

[Roland99]

99. That is sure going to leave a mark. And what about other expirations coming up?

Surely this isn't the only one.

[nadinbrzezinski]

101. OUCH

[nadinbrzezinski]

97. And bush shot his mouth early enough?

[MsLeopard]

79. Can someone tell me

what's up with gold and silver? Why is it tanking too? :shrug:

[UpInArms]

80. selling the good stuff to cover losses

is my guess

all the commodities are tanking along with the markets

[MsLeopard]

83. Thank you

I thought precious metals were a good hedge against everything else tanking. Now I'm starting to worry - I've been buying it for a few years in preparation for this mess. I'm hoping like hell it recovers....

[nadinbrzezinski]

85. It will, we've lost a lot less than others

and overall actually made some

[bemildred]

88. A hedge can be something that doesn't lose as much.

It "retains value" better.

[Roland99]

81. Moving to dollars to cover asses.

[TalkingDog]

95. you mean like this guy?

stolen from:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4210897

*tip of the hat to 20score*

[Roland99]

100. Leveraged Loan Indexes Drop to Record as Credit Turmoil Deepens

Leveraged Loan Indexes Drop to Record as Credit Turmoil Deepens
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax4FjKE3j1hU&refer=home

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The value of U.S. and European high risk, high-yield loans fell to a record low as banks tried to sell holdings of the debt.

Markit LCDX, a benchmark credit-default swap index used to hedge against losses on U.S. leveraged loans, which falls as credit risk increases, dropped 2.5 percentage points to a mid- price of 82.75 percent of face value, paring an earlier decline to 82, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The Markit iTraxx LevX index of European loans fell 2 to 86.5, Deutsche Bank AG prices show.

Prices of leveraged loans tumbled on concern that banks and hedge funds are being forced to sell assets in the wake of the collapse of Iceland's banks this week and the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. Rapid declines in the value of loans will make it more expensive for companies to raise capital.

``Selling pressure is likely to continue as nobody really knows how many more loans are going to be dumped on the market,'' said Robert Jaeger, a high-yield debt analyst at Societe Generale SA in London.

[Dr.Phool]

103. She's headin' south again. -474.

[Roland99]

107. Continued fear stepped in to dig a hole filled in by the end of the Lehman auction?

Or the faeries ran out of pixie dust.

[nadinbrzezinski]

105. Signs that the credit squeeze is begining to thaw... talking head on the cnbc

that is what we need

Can I have a chorus of hallelujahs?

[Roland99]

108. uhh...what was the sign?

[UpInArms]

111. ...

[Roland99]

118. he he. Yeah...I like that one.

[nadinbrzezinski]

112. LIBOR seems to be a tad lower

And she was saying that the rates of CDs and other stuff is an indicator that they have the money to start lending

Of course David Shuster has no fucking clue to ask pointed questions like oh... commercial or private loans?

[Roland99]

114. They were reporting certain LIBOR rates were lower back about 7am today.

Look at what the market's done today.


Clueless bastards.

[nadinbrzezinski]

119. I just took a peek, been monitoring them

I keep telling my dad... the dow jones is a late indicator, check lending rates

That said... 20 minutes to witching hour

If this does not go down the rapids, we may have a floor (at least for the day)

It will take the G -7 during the weekend

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

110. CNBC is here to save us!

Hallelujah!

[nadinbrzezinski]

113. AMEN

They are covering this in kindergarden terms...

That said, this is the kind of baby explanations that need to be done

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

120. bee boo default credit swap gaw gaw goo goo

Elect that baby!

[nadinbrzezinski]

121. RLOL

I needed that

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

123. Chill! I've got this shit!

[snot]

211. love the photo --

source?

[UpInArms]

115. 2:35 EST and the market steps into Monsieur's bucket

Dow 8,060.20 518.99 (6.05%)
Nasdaq 1,549.73 95.39 (5.80%)
S&P 500 848.33 61.59 (6.77%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 7,776,766,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,814,632,000

[Dr.Phool]

116. I can't count all the jabbering "experts" on TV lately.

Yesterday, at about 10 min. to six, I turned on our local CBS affiliate to catch the local news.

Dr Phil (not to be confused with Dr. Phool) was thanking his panel of economic experts for being on the show. Jim Cramer, "Economist" Ben Stein, and some other moran.

I wonder how many more misinformed millions are running around today because of this idiot.

[Roland99]

126. A bevy of trickle down lovers.

nice.

[Yavin4]

124. These Threads Should Be Renamed STOCK MARKET DEATH WATCH

I've never seen so much carnage in my life.

[nadinbrzezinski]

127. Buckle up... witching hour is here

[Mojorabbit]

128. -529.34 at 2:57 pm nt

[Dr.Phool]

129. Should get nastier than a Sarah Palin rally.

[Roland99]

133. 160 point bounce up so far.

[Roland99]

134. Only down 194 on the day now.

:wtf:

[Mojorabbit]

137. Very weird.....nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

138. We MIGHT have found the floor

[Roland99]

140. My guess was 8,300.... At 8,444 now. -132

[UpInArms]

141. 3:20 EST and the faeries are making their move - now down 143

Dow 8,436.30 142.89 (1.67%)
Nasdaq 1,617.50 27.62 (1.68%)
S&P 500 889.74 20.18 (2.22%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 8,958,596,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,283,626,250

[CatholicEdHead]

142. Hanging around -50 to -90 for the day right now

Lots of time left. Lots of cheers were heard on the floor.

[Wednesdays]

143. The faeries always come out between 3:00 and 3:30

They were out yesterday big time, but were shot down in the last few minutes.

[Roland99]

130. How to describe market movements lately? Go to the 2:40 mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTYgM6oPZCQ

[snot]

214. LoL (amp'd by hysteria) -- thanks, i needed that.

[bemildred]

132. Treasurys down; supply concerns outweigh equities drop

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices fell Friday, sending yields up for the fourth straight session, amid concern that the government's continued initiatives to stabilize the flailing financial system will lead to more debt issuance, reducing the value of holding bonds.

---

The Securities and Financial Market Association recommends bond trading close at 2 p.m. EDT on Friday and remain closed Monday for Columbus Day.

"We still have the looming threat of further supply pressure," said William O'Donnell, U.S. government bond strategist at UBS Securities, in a note to clients.

UBS Securities estimates the federal deficit for fiscal 2009 will reach $1 trillion, which would represent "a veritable paradigm shift up" from the government's $163 billion deficit in fiscal 2007.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasurys-down-supply-concerns-outweigh/story.aspx?guid=%7B0A43EDA7%2DCDC9%2D4EFB%2D97DA%2DE1701AF989AC%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&

[readmoreoften]

139. Wait? The market jumped 3% in 15 minutes for no reason?

The PPT is getting a little obvious...

[Hugin]

144. You should've seen it this morning...

800+ points in a half an hour.

[Roland99]

145. Fannie Mae to stop collecting on mortgage-backed securities

Fannie Mae to stop collecting on mortgage-backed securities
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fannie-mae-stop-collecting-mortgage-backed/story.aspx?guid=%7BB9ACBB03%2D9607%2D44FA%2D8EA4%2D110138703CA6%7D&dist=hplatest

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fannie Mae said Friday it will stop collecting the principal and interest payments on loans from institutions servicing its mortgage-backed securities in a bid to free up additional liquidity for these institutions. The move comes in line with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's new policy which effectively safeguards these principal and interest payments. End of Story

Maybe that sparked it?

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

146. What's going on?

This is nuts.

[bemildred]

147. It's the magic hand of the market.

You gotta really believe or it does not work though.

[UpInArms]

148. 3:26 EST It's a Miracle! Barely a scratch! What great body work!

Dow 8,546.45 32.74 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,636.91 8.21 (0.50%)
S&P 500 895.52 14.40 (1.58%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 9,230,047,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,394,616,500

[UpInArms]

153. 3:30 Bursting into the Green with almost 10 billion shares traded

Dow 8,635.02 55.83 (0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,653.83 8.71 (0.53%)
S&P 500 907.30 2.62 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 9,367,674,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,448,321,500

3:00 pm : The major indices trade with substantial losses.

A total of 1.84 billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE so far, already outpacing the average daily volume of 1.47 billion in 2007. Market breadth is bearish, decliners outpace advancers by 32-to-7 on the NYSE and by 23-to-5 on the Nasdaq.

CBS (CBS 8.90, -1.24) said that it expects third quarter earnings per share to decline as much as 17.7% year-over-year due to advertising revenue being adversely impacted by the U.S. economic slowdown. Specifically, CBS expects to earn between $0.42 and $0.44 per share in the third quarter, which is ahead of the consensus estimate of $0.41.DJ30 -445.16 NASDAQ -81.64 SP500 -55.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 494/2.96 bln/2264 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 333/1.84 bln/3078

2:30 pm : Stocks attempted to recover some losses but were quickly met with selling pressure.

Wachovia (WB 4.60, +1.00) was put on CreditWatch positive and had is counterparty credit rating raised at Standard & Poor's in response to Wells Fargo (WFC 26.39, -0.84) announcing that it will complete its acquisition of Wachovia. Wells Fargo remains on CreditWatch negative.

According to data from Creditfixings.com, firms that sold protection against default on Lehman Brothers debt, known as credit default swaps, will have to pay 91.37 cents on the dollar to those who bought the debt protection. This means that the firms that sold the CDS will face steep losses.DJ30 -507.42 NASDAQ -89.86 SP500 -60.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 477/2.77 bln/2288 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 303/1.72 bln/3093

[The Magistrate]

152. The Bottom-Feeders Are Coming Out, My Friend

They may be doing so a little early, but it is not like people do not make mistakes in this.

Give me a Blackjack layout any day....

[bemildred]

199. Possible. The theory does seem to be "buy low".

And it has crossed my mind that one might want to think about taking up some new bets in here somewheres.

But they seemed very enthusiastic about it. I would not think one need be in such a hurry to get back in. It might go down some more. You could wait until it stops jumping around and stuff.

[The Magistrate]

202. Not Suggesting They Are Wise To Do, Sir, Only That Some Think They See Opportunity

But it is not my belief that market actions are in any sense rational, and that just about everything proclaimed as 'the reason why' is merely a tribute to the human capacity to detect patterns, which is so powerful it is quite capable of imposing them on random and chaotic events that in fact contain no pattern at all. 'Analyzing markets' is gauging the mood of a mob, and from this trying to deduce the direction in which it will lurch, between the poles of greed and fear.

[bemildred]

206. Largely an exercise in herd behavior, true.

However it is also true that markets are subject to gaming and manipulation, and that sort of thing goes on all the time. Sometimes it gets quite egregious. Companies buying their own stock to keep the price up for example. A good trader is like a good professional gambler, he has an edge, and he uses it. It's not even illegal if you follow the rules. And the people who run markets make their money when things go up or things go down, like gamblers they want "action", lots of trading going on.

There is a middle ground between randomness and rigid order, and that is where the markets operate.

[The Magistrate]

209. True Enough, My Friend

And in this situation, I expect, whatever our tastes and preferences, we really have to root for the coldest of the professionals to get a lock on the herd of hoopleheads and get them moving in an orderly manner.

[bemildred]

212. Yes, I think you could say it's gone far enough, nt

[The Magistrate]

149. People Are Bouncing Off The Figure 7.500, Colonel

It is a nice round number, and as it nears, it makes things look awfully cheap to some people, and so worth beginning to buy.

The thing will charge down at that number all next week, is my gambler's guess. Maybe it will break it, maybe that will hold it...

[Dr.Phool]

159. Nah, I think they were passing out extra Prozac at lunch.

With a side of PCP.

[TheWatcher]

154. The Powers That Be are doing the only thing that has worked for the past few months

Blatant Banging of the close in the last 1/2 hour with such severity that it cannot be sold.

What should scare people is that even with all the blatant manipulation (Which ironically has only served and will only serve to make things worse) going on today, they till have not been able to overcome the enormous selling pressure.

At least they have to be transparent about it now, because you certainly can't hide the kind of shenanigans we have seen today.

The rule is simple. The Market must never be allowed to correct on it's own.

This is not a good thing, and could in all probability make things worse.

[Mojorabbit]

175. I can't see what else it can be

Nothing really has fundamentally changed within the problems that have caused this crash. At least not enough to make the market move up by this much today.

[TheWatcher]

185. You are indeed correct, this is all a BS show of force and Carnival Of Stupidity.

A word of caution to any that would cheer this on like it is something good, heroic, or helpful.

It is NOT. It is one of the elements that got the system so unstable to begin with.

It did not work in 1998, it did not work in 2002-2003, and it will NOT WORK NOW.

It does nothing but stave off the inevitable.

This is not helping the Market find a floor, it is ultimately fucking it up even worse. The Market needs to find a legitimate floor, and this is not helping.

No more Bubbles, no more Manipulation, no more Artificial Booms and Busts, no more BULLSHIT.

Don't cheer on the idiots that helped get us into this mess.

[Ghost Dog]

182. Been selling gold and silver with which to finance this, too, perhaps.

:puffpiece:

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

150. Alright, that's it!

I'm done with this shit. I already know I'm losing money for the year, I don't care any more. Watching this market is actually painful it's so ridiculous. I'm out.

[UpInArms]

155. ah, come on Colonel!

the show's only just begun and we have great 'toons and sometimes we have pool parties and every once in a while someone brings this great cart by and we have



:hi:

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

181. Well, I managed to stay away from the thread for about 5 minutes

what the hell happened? Up 200, the down again? Forget the popcorn, I need a stiff whiskey.

[Dr.Phool]

186. I just picked up a fresh bottle of Stoli.

Come on over!

[Hugin]

151. ~15:30 EDT: Happy Happy Joy Joy...

Dow 8,635.89 +56.70 (0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,654.68 +9.56 (0.58%)
S&P 500 907.30 -2.62 (-0.29%)

10y bond 3.84% -0.02 (-0.52%)

[Roland99]

156. +213!!!!!!!!!

[Hugin]

160. +295!!!i!1!!!

[UpInArms]

171. Get your shoes and let's party like it's 1929!!!!!

:bounce:
:party:
:bounce:

[theDash]

157. this is incredible

gained 600 pts in a little over a half hour here

[Hugin]

163. 12% today. n/t

[Ghost Dog]

162. European Markets and a glimpse of G7 finance ministers draft:

LONDON - (Forbes) After a historic week in which European indexes saw some of their biggest losses in years, investors in Europe were looking to the week ahead for reassuring news.

On Friday, London's FTSE 100 closed down 8.5%, Germany's Dax ended the day down 8.7% and the Cac-40 of Paris closed down 8.8%.

European investors were looking for decisive government action at a meeting between G7 finance ministers in Washington this weekend.

/... http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/2008/10/10/europe-week-ahead-markets-equity-cx_po_1010markets21.html
________

Italy won't sign G7 draft statement as stands

Fri, Oct 10 2008, 18:37 GMT ROME, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Italy will not sign a G7 draft statement as it stands because it does not contain strong enough commitments to address the global financial crisis, Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said on Friday.

"We see a text that is written in the old style, as if nothing has happened. We are not going to sign that text," Tremonti said on Italian telivision from Washington.

"Or there is a new text with stronger commitments (otherwise Italy won't sign). We will try to convince them."

/. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=c1e28484-c9ac-4602-b476-82ecaaadc16e
________

[Roland99]

167. Rumors apparently of G7 guaranteeing overnight loans.

[Roland99]

169. dupe

[CatholicEdHead]

164. +237, almost time to open the pool again

[Wednesdays]

174. Then again, maybe not.

:wtf:

[UpInArms]

166. 3:35 EST Yahh--Freakin'--HOOO!!! We're gonna have ponies and Christmas bonuses and well -- WHEEEEEE!

Dow 8,719.37 140.18 (1.63%)
Nasdaq 1,674.71 29.59 (1.80%)
S&P 500 919.67 9.75 (1.07%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 9,581,141,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,546,232,250

[UpInArms]

168. 3:38 EST up 238 points!!!! Party PARTY PARTY!!!!

Dow 8,815.50 236.31 (2.75%)
Nasdaq 1,690.77 45.65 (2.77%)
S&P 500 930.56 20.64 (2.27%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 9,668,559,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,559,901,000

[Roland99]

170. whoops. +5.65

[Roland99]

173. -149

[Hugin]

180. Looks to me like the selling pressure is still there...

Man, this really reminds me of '87.

[UpInArms]

178. 3:41 EST On Noes! Someone let the air out the tires! The wheels are coming off my party!

Dow 8,590.26 11.07 (0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,668.26 23.14 (1.41%)
S&P 500 908.75 1.17 (0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.861% 0.027

NYSE Volume 9,788,690,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,655,534,750

[Dr.Phool]

172. Pump and Dump anybody?

[Roland99]

176. that's usually pump on one day and dump the next...not w/in half an hour

[CatholicEdHead]

177. 13min left, anything can happen

[Dr.Phool]

179. Those last 15 minutes have been murder lately.

[Roland99]

183. U.S. stocks surge higher into the close on hopes for G7 move

U.S. stocks surge higher into the close on hopes for G7 move
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-surge-higher-close/story.aspx?guid=%7B2F91E538%2D905A%2D40FC%2D8F8F%2D7A0086C79CEA%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock indexes on Friday rallied sharply on expectations that the G7 meeting now under way in Washington would result in measures to bring the intra-bank spending rate back down.

[TheWatcher]

187. AGAIN the Power Of Bullshit.

This is why we have a Casino that passes for a Market. "Expectations", "Rumor that ect will happen".

Always some Magical Rumor, some news of a scheme, plan, notion, tonic, promise, bailout, handout, soothing words, etc, etc, etc.

And all the while REALITY STAYS THE SAME.

THIS. IS. NOT. GOING. TO WORK.

IT. HAS. NOT. WORKED.

This foolishness has got to stop.

And with all the bullshit, all the manipulation, it still didn't close the Market Green.

This isn't a Floor. It's just another Farce.

[Roland99]

189. 4:00pm - At the bell. Russell2K is ecstatic over something.

DJIA 8,503.12 -76.07 -0.89%
Nasdaq 1,642.82 -2.30 -0.14%
S&P 500 902.85 -7.07 -0.78%
Dow Util 326.53 -17.78 -5.16%
NYSE 5,715.52 -94.46 -1.63%
AMEX 1,285.44 -85.38 -6.23%
Russell 2000 521.79 +22.59 +4.53%
Semcond 246.18 -1.19 -0.48%
Gold future 859.00 -27.50 -3.10%
30-Year Bond 4.14% +0.02 +0.41%
10-Year Bond 3.86% +0.02 +0.60%

[theDash]

190. there may be a pool winner (or two)

once the dust settles here

yahoo is showing 8462.18

[Dr.Phool]

192. I was wrong, I thought it was done.

[CatholicEdHead]

193. Settling down below the level

It looks to be the Pool Day, right now it is 10pts below the level.

[Ghost Dog]

196. Ah, so that's why they had to pump so hard today!

But me, I still believe in the predictive power of bain-sidhes, ever since I was first invited across that bridge into Erris, West Co. Mayo. :hippie:

ed. Heading to the (home) cinema (Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood"), back later. Meanwhile, virtual moonshine's on me! :(

[bain_sidhe]

208. Aww :blush:

I actually thought I was being alarmist when I picked this date! Shows to go you, what awesome powers a banshee and a ghost can have when they get together!

So, where's your "hard times" recipe? (I admit, I made that up an the last moment... it wasn't part of the original pool deal, but it looks like it wouldn't hurt to have a few to fall back on!)

[Hugin]

216. Serve up that Hard Times recipe!

:9

Congrats on your prescience and mega-thanx for your outstanding efforts in keeping this leg
of the Pool afloat!

:bounce:

Alas, it's time to come up with something else to hedge on... A recovery perhaps?

I put it at three months after they start bracing the bottom tiers of the pyramid. Regulated of course.

[bain_sidhe]

223. Did that already. but maybe I'll repost on thread 3 (eom)

[AnneD]

226. I haven't been able to channel

Jimmy the Greek since the last pool-he can be such a prick at times.

I'll dig up my gas-less bean recipe and post it on the week end economist. Let's share depression era recipes. I actually have a Depression/WWII cook book. Tells you great substitutions etc. Do you want a pressure cooker or regular version of the beans? I have some wild game recipes. Squirrel can be tasty.

[bain_sidhe]

227. Regular, please

I love bean soup, but the older I get, the worse the gas bothers me!

And I'll be on the lookout for the weekend economist thread. Is it in LBN, or another forum? I don't recall ever seeing it!

**edit: stupid fingers**

[Demeter]

228. You Rang?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x392231

[Roland99]

194. 4:11pm - I think they've stopped settling.

DJIA 8,451.19 -128.00 -1.49%
Nasdaq 1,649.51 +4.39 +0.27%
S&P 500 899.25 -10.67 -1.17%
Dow Util 324.52 -19.79 -5.75%
NYSE 5,701.88 -108.10 -1.86%
AMEX 1,290.70 -80.12 -5.84%
Russell 2000 522.37 +23.17 +4.64%
Semcond 246.11 -2.17 -0.87%
Oil $77.70 -$8.89
Gold future 859.00 -27.50 -3.10%
30-Year Bond 4.14% +0.02 +0.41%
10-Year Bond 3.86% +0.02 +0.60%

[MsLeopard]

195. We have a pool winner n/t

[bain_sidhe]

204. Two winners!

Sorry I'm late guys, first I got stuck by a train parked across the street, then my router decided to get lost in (cyber)space.

Anyway, as MsLeopard says, we have winners:

To repeat the rules from Prag:

---

Guess the date for when the Dow will close down 20% of it's value from the Great Reset value of 10,578. That would be 8462.59. I doubt anyone could claim there isn't a recession at that value.

Similar rules to AnneD's pool apply... HARSH REGULATION WILL BE OBSERVED! The pool will lock at 500 points above the target value or 8963.59.

---

Picking today were:

bain_sidhe... 10/10/08
Ghost Dog... 10/10/08

The DJIA closed at 8,451.19, which is –128.00.

Um... now what (I'm new at this...)?

Oh, and as promised, my "hard times" recipe from my own hard times:

1 can of condensed soup
1 can of water
about 2/3 can of rice

simmer for 20 minutes or until all water is absorbed and viola! a reasonably nutritious casserole that feeds a single person for two days, with a little left over for the dog (not cats though, they require more protein). The soup doesn't really matter (I personally liked Minestrone, but vegetable beef works too. Just make sure you have some veggies and at least a little bit of meat, for nutritional purposes. Also, you might need to adjust the rice depending on how much liquid is in it. Generally, rice needs two times as much liquid as rice to cook properly.

[MadinMo]

218. Your hard times recipe sounds pretty good, actually!

I can buy several varieties of condensed soup (chicken noodle, beef vegetable, chicken w/ rice, etc) at Dollar General for 50 cents a can. They have 10 lbs of long grain rice for $4.75. With the variety of soups available, the recipe might not get old over a months time and certainly would be cheap. Thanks for sharing!

[bain_sidhe]

222. Forgot to mention

You should simmer it covered... the rice actually cooks from the steam. And you're right, you can put some variety into it so that it doesn't seem like the same-old, same-old every damn day (unlike bean soup, which I love, but not every day!) You can also do the same thing with the "sauce-like" soups (my favorite was beefy mushroom) and make a nice side dish to go with meat instead of potatoes. It's lower calorie, and fairly healthy, too. YOu have to reduce the rice depending on how thick the sauce is. If it's nearly gelled (like cream of mushroom or cream of chicken) I'd go with a half a can of rice. (That feeds less, of course.)

[Robbien]

200. Is anyone else wishing for a third thread ?

Damn this dialup of mine

[Dr.Phool]

207. Yeah might as well.

If it helps you load faster.

[fedsron2us]

203. Bear Market Rally coming in next two weeks?

I can feel it in my bones. Followed, of course, by the final wipe out.

Elliot wave enthusiasts will know what I am rambling about.

True secular bear markets in stocks (I don't count 1987 as that was in the midst of a secular bull market) very rarely bottom after spectacular falls such as took place last week. The one I remember from the early 1970s rumbled on for months often recording week after week of more modest declines which eventually squeezed every vestige of life and hope from the market. In the UK when the market reached its nadir in 1974 losing 73% of its value they even had prayers said for its recovery in the Queen Mothers chapel at Windsor. Amazingly they appear to have worked because the market recovered all the losses within a year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash_of_1973%E2%80%934

Back then they were lucky that the banking system did not rely on the 'chaos theory' financial chicanery so beloved of the current management and they had rampant inflation to wipe away the losses over a couple of years. We may not be so fortunate this time.

[Dr.Phool]

210. You might see an occasional sucker rally.

But I think the trend is slowly down to 7,000 or so.

The market used to have fundamentals, that all the theories, or hypotheses as I prefer, could use to try to predict the market. All you've got now is greed and drugs. And hopefully some RICO indictments.

[ozone_man]

220. I believe you are correct.

I don't think the reversal today was it though. It might be, but I think we might have some more downside potential next week.

But there will be a bear market rally coming soon. And that would be a wave 4 up? ;)

I think the whole downside thing is going to last fairly long, two years at least. P/E's may look just a bit high now, but when earnings drop further in a severe recession/depression, prices will have to come down, just to maintain the same P/E. So, I would look more toward what the P/E ratios will be further into the recession, one or two years from now.

And it is generally accepted that the end of large bear markets sees a P/E of 7-10. So, even if the stock market kept the same earnings, which I highly doubt, it would still have to drop a factor of two in price. A downward spiral of earnings and price will land us at a 7 - 10 P/E eventually. We've been living in a bubble economy that is finally bursting.

[fedsron2us]

221. An article on Elliot Waves at Mish Shedlock's site today

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count.html

Most of the time I am pretty cynical about technical analysis but these big market crises do seem to follow a pattern. I am old enough to remember the 1973-74 crash and it did seem to have the same inexorable momentum that we have today. The big difference then was that the banking system was not overrun by charlatans and Nixon, for all his faults, was not a complete idiot like Bush.

[ozone_man]

225. That's a great crash course in EWT.

I take that (EWT) with a dose of scepticism too. But we can see that the market doesn't always pay attention to fundamentals. It seems to be based more on sociology and psychology than fundamentals, and a lot of herd behavior.

[Roland99]

232. I was thinking about the wave theory the other day. Thanks for that.

[UpInArms]

215. Thread #3 by special request - link here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3538231&mesg_id=3538231

[Demeter]

229. The Weekend Economists Have Convened!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x392231

Ye gluttons for punishment, fender-bender gawkers, morbidly curious and the occasional innocent bystander meet and greet and commiserate at the link!