STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 11

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 11, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 129
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2790 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2515 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2806
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 10, 2008

Dow... 11,268.92 +38.19 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq... 2,228.70 +18.89 (+0.85%)
S&P 500... 1,232.04 +7.53 (+0.61%)
Gold future... 762.50 -29.50 (-3.87%)
30-Year Bond 4.23% +0.03 (+0.79%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.64% +0.05 (+1.25%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

When the Transmission is Broken, Call a Tow Truck
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Oh, what a tangled mess we have! The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the latest attempt to bring stability to the housing and financial markets. But the question remains, is it enough? We have a crumbling housing market and massive financial deleveraging going on at the same time Bernanke, Paulson & Co. are trying to plug all the holes. A friend of mine aptly described the state of the markets in the following quote:

Actually, the situation is more akin to a patient bleeding to death simultaneously being given a transfusion. Every one's hoping the blood going in keeps pace with the blood going out.

In terms of housing, this situation of blood going in and blood going out also applies. Blood going into the housing market is a reduction in supply in the form falling construction to bring demand and supply more in line with each other to arrest falling prices, with the decline in construction being a major positive to the housing market. For example, the number of housing permits relative to the number of households in the US has fallen to 0.8%, tying the second lowest number in 43 years, with 0.8% also reached in 1990. Additionally, sales activity relative to the number of households has also reached a low that has often marked previous housing bottoms.

.....

Rising foreclosures are occurring throughout the nation, swelling the pool of available homes for sale and offsetting declines in newly constructed homes. Rising foreclosures are the symbolic hemorrhaging going on in housing and are prolonging the housing downturn. Perhaps the most disturbing chart is what you see below. Current supply relative to the number of households is nowhere near previous cycle bottoms. In fact, we are still at a 25 year high and have only come down 40% from the peak seen in July of 2006 and need a further 35.5% drop in the ratio from current levels to reach previous housing cycle lows.

.....

What is clearly evident is that the Federal Reserve has tried to revive the economy and stabilize the markets by cutting interest rates drastically and making credit readily available to financial institutions as well as swapping its balance sheet for those of commercial banks, taking on illiquid mortgage backed securities and exchanging its US Treasuries. Banks are tapping the Fed’s discount window but their borrowings are being used to replace their losses, not to make new loans. The continued losses on all loan categories and fear of more to come is leading the banks to tighten their belts, raising lending standards on all types of loans and reducing overall bank credit, particularly to the consumer.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.8%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.9%

08:30 Initial Claims 09/06
Briefing.com 430K
Consensus 440K
Prior 444K

08:30 Trade Balance Jul
Briefing.com -$56.0B
Consensus -$58.0B
Prior -$56.8B

14:00 Treasury Budget Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -$105.0B
Prior -117.0B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

28. Initial claims at 445k; continuing to 3.52 million; trade deficit $62.2billion

50% chance of Fed rate cut in Dec

[UpInArms]

29. Initial Claims @ 445,000 - last wk rev'd up 7,000 - lots of fugly reports now in:

03. U.S. July real trade deficit widens 2.7% from 7-year low
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

04. U.S. July volume of imported petroleum highest in 4 years
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

05. U.S. July imports rise 3.9% to record $230.3 billion
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

06. U.S. July exports rise 3.3% to record $168.1 billion
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

07. U.S. July trade gap bigger than $58.6 billion expected
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

08. U.S. July trade deficit $62.2 billion vs. $58.8 billion June
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

09. U.S. August petroleum import prices fall 12.8%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

10. U.S. August import prices fall 0.3% excluding petroleum
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

16. U.S. August import prices rise 0.2% excluding fuels
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

17. U.S. August import prices up 16% year over year
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

18. U.S. August import price index falls 3.7%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

19. U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims up 36,750 to 3.43 mln
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

20. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 122,000 to 3.53 mln
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

21. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 250 to 440,000
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

22. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims down 6,000 to 445,000
8:30 AM ET, Sep 11, 2008

[UpInArms]

31. Trade deficit surged to 16-month high in July

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/trade

WASHINGTON - America's trade deficit shot up in July to the highest level in 16 months as oil imports hit an all-time high, offsetting strong export growth. The deficit with China climbed to the second highest level on record.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the deficit rose by 5.7 percent to $62.2 billion in July, much worse than the $58 billion deficit that Wall Street expected. It pushed the gap between what America imports and what it sells abroad to the highest level since March 2007.

The trade deterioration reflected the fact that crude oil prices hit a record in July, pushing America's foreign oil bill to an all-time high of $51.4 billion, up 13.7 percent from June.

The big rise in oil prices, with the average barrel of imported crude jumping to a record $124.66, pushed overall imports up by 3.9 percent to a record $230.3 billion.

That increase offset another strong showing for U.S. exports which rose by 3.3 percent to a record $168.1 billion, reflecting big gains in overseas sales of commercial aircraft, computers and U.S.-made cars. Exports have been the major bright spot for the U.S. economy in a year when the country has been battered by a prolonged slump in housing, rising unemployment and a severe credit crunch.

The Bush administration points to the export gains as justification for its support of free trade. However, Democrats contend the administration's pursuit of free-trade agreements left U.S. workers exposed to unfair competition from low-wage countries with poor environmental records such as China.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. US mortgage rates weekly drop most in over 28 yrs

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1147261620080911?sp=true

NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Interest rates on U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 0.42 percentage point in the latest week, the biggest weekly drop in more than 28 years, according to a survey released on Thursday by home funding company Freddie Mac.

The drop, which drove 30-year fixed rates to an almost five-month low, was driven by the U.S. government's rescue effort for the mortgage finance company and its larger sibling Fannie Mae, analysts say.

Interest rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.93 percent for the week ending Sept. 11, down from the previous week's 6.35 percent, Freddie Mac said in its weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

It was the largest weekly drop since May 1980 when interest rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 14.68 percent, down from 15.90 percent.

Interest rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are at their lowest level since the week ended April 17, when the rate averaged 5.88 percent.

The U.S. government seized control of Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Sunday, launching what could be its biggest federal bailout ever, to support the U.S. housing market and ward off more global financial market turbulence.

...more...

[UpInArms]

63. U.S. federal deficit $483B year-to-date, vs. $274B 2007

01. U.S. on-budget deficit $669.5 billion year-to-date
2:01 PM ET, Sep 11, 2008

02. U.S. federal deficit $483B year-to-date, vs. $274B 2007
2:01 PM ET, Sep 11, 2008

03. U.S. Aug. federal budget deficit $111.9B vs. $117B
2:01 PM ET, Sep 11, 2008

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steady in Asia as Ike strengthens toward Texas

SINGAPORE - Oil prices were steady near a 5-month low Thursday in Asia as Hurricane Ike strengthened as it headed through the Gulf of Mexico toward crude drilling and refining operations on the Texas coast.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 10 cents to $102.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell 68 cents overnight to settle at $102.58, the lowest close since April 1.

Ike, coming on the heels of last week's Hurricane Gustav, was expected to blow ashore early Saturday somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston, with some forecasts saying it could become a Category 4, with winds of at least 131 mph.

....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 1.84 cents to $2.9208 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained 4.84 cents to $2.71 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery rose 16.8 cents to $7.561 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

11. Reining In the Oil Speculators

Institutional investors drove oil prices to all-time highs this summer, and the same players are also responsible for much of the $44-per-barrel loss since then, according to a Sept. 10 report that is being used to bolster calls for greater trading regulation.

The report from a hedge fund investor who has grown prominent in the oil speculation debate, Michael Masters, comes as crude oil has staged a 28% retreat in the past two months. But Masters and backers of his report—including many congressional Democrats—say prices could return to previous highs if reform legislation isn't passed. "Americans won't stand for being held up at the pump by these Wall Street scoundrels every time they fill up their gas tank," Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said on Sept. 10 at the report's release. She was joined by Masters, Adam K. White of White Knight Research & Trading, Senator Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), and Representative Bart Stupak (D-Mich.).

According to Masters' report, an influx of "long-only" investors—large investors like pension funds and endowments that bet prices would rise—poured into the oil market in recent years. Their investments reached a peak on July 11, when oil prices hit an all-time high above $147 per barrel. Then, beginning on July 15, institutional investors "began a mass stampede for the exits" of commodities indexes like the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, according to Masters. Investors withdrew about $39 billion from the index, resulting in the selling of about 127 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate crude futures. The report says that crude futures have dropped by about $29 per barrel as a result of this selling.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/sep2008/db20080910_687148.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis

[AnneD]

43. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Looks like we'll be having a serious hurricane party Saturday morning. They are predicting it hitting maybe Matagorda and that puts us on the dirty side. They called a press conference this AM and Mayor White was announcing evacuations of low lying coastal areas by this evening. Houstonians have been asked to stay off the freeways as much as possible until tomorrow. Non essential employers and employees are asked to stay home tomorrow and make preparations.

I will be staying with some friends tomorrow night. I am responsible for the fruit and I think I'll bring in some liquor too. We will try to make the best of it. I do not relish the thought of staying in a travel trailer with high winds about. It is hard to tell what damage is done etc, but downtown, the port, the oil platform, and the refineries are at risk. We had a hard time after Alisha. We had flooding, wind damage, rain. No power for weeks. All we can do is watch, prepare and pray.

Hubby is flying in tonight. He just took sis back to NJ. He will be stuck in the hospital for the duration.

But today, it is a beautiful late summer day. The sun is shining and the children are playing, and Obama is tweaking the GOP. They are looking really stupid, like a pig, with lips stick on.

Happy hunting, watch out for the bears, and take some time today to remember our dead and count our blessings.

[Hugin]

44. Please be careful, AnneD.

Ike's a whopper.

[Dr.Phool]

57. Be careful, but enjoy the party.

I'll be with you in spirits. I'm headed for the liquor store too.

[AnneD]

59. What's your fav hurricane drink.....

I like Margurita's but I like Mojitos and Cuba Libres. You have to just get down to basics when the power is out.

A teacher went out today and she said there were real long lines at the gas stations. I have 3/4ths but think I'll top off any way. I stayed during Rita and I an gratefull I had a full tank. It was over a week before we got gas in.

[Dr.Phool]

73. Stoli on the rocks

Or, Dr. Phools Magical Lemonade. Use a cheaper vodka.

Take 1 can frozen lemonade

substitute 2 cans vodka for 2 cans of water (2 cans of each). The other 1/3 can is optional, either water or vodka. refrigerate, and serve over ice in a tall glass.

You'll never know what hit you.



:toast:

[ozymandius]

4. Washington Mutual shares plunge to 17-year low

NEW YORK - Washington Mutual Inc. shares plunged to their lowest point in nearly two decades Wednesday after Lehman Brothers announced plans to sell off assets, leaving Wall Street on edge that other financial firms may be forced to take extreme measures in order to survive.

WaMu shares dove 98 cents, or 29.7 percent, to close at $2.32 — a 17-year low. Shares hit as low as $2.30 earlier in the session.

Lehman said early Wednesday that it plans to sell a majority stake in its investment management unit, spin off its commercial real estate assets and slash its dividend. The nation's fourth-largest investment bank also said it lost $3.9 billion during its fiscal third quarter.

...

One indicator that the bank could be in trouble is the widening of its credit spreads, an indication that investors believe the debt is riskier.

Washington Mutual's spreads are greatly wider than Lehman's — and Lehman's spreads are already wider than those of Bear Stearns Cos. shortly before its demise in March, according to Len Blum, managing director at investment bank Westwood Capital.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_bi_ge/washington_mutual_stock

[Demeter]

8. This Is a Real Case of Domino Theory

and I have a feeling it's going to be rather quick from here on in.

http://www.videovat.com/videos/7108/cool-dominoes-and-pool-trick.aspx

[DemReadingDU]

16. That was cool!

I wonder how long it took to setup all those dominoes and pool balls!

[AnneD]

62. It's a metaphor for life...

It's not the dominoes that gets you-it's the ball that came out of nowhere that will nail you every time.

[UpInArms]

49. Washington Mutual plummets below $2 a share

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1031492220080911?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Washington Mutual Inc (WM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares plunged as much as 25 percent to less than $2 for the first time since 1990 as investors worried about the credit loss and survival prospects for the largest U.S. savings and loan.

The thrift's shares fell 43 cents, or 18.5 percent, to $1.89 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, after earlier falling to $1.75. They began the week at $4.12, and their 52-week high of $39.25, was set last September 19.

Washington Mutual did not immediately return calls and e-mails seeking a comment.

Investors are losing confidence that Washington Mutual, like Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), may not have time to right itself after soaring losses tied to mortgages. They fear Chief Executive Alan Fishman will not find a buyer or raise enough capital for the Seattle-based thrift.

<snip>

Killinger built Washington Mutual into a $309.7 billion-asset company that remains heavily exposed to the nation's housing downturn. Regulators ordered the thrift to improve risk management, but Washington Mutual this week said this would not require new capital or bolstered liquidity.

Washington Mutual has said mortgage losses could reach $19 billion through 2011. Some analysts have said the number could be larger. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is said to have approached Washington Mutual early this year about a merger, but Killinger rejected the overture.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. U.S. regulator says is monitoring Washington Mutual

http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSN1125885620080911

WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision said it is monitoring the condition of Washington Mutual Inc (WM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), whose shares sank below $2 a share on Thursday for the first time since 1990.

"We're fully aware of the situation and we're monitoring it," OTS spokesman William Ruberry told Reuters.

Investors are worried about mortgage losses, capital needs and survival prospects at the largest U.S. savings and loan.

[ozymandius]

5. Lehman must convince Wall Street it can deliver

NEW YORK - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has presented its rescue plan, now it has to convince Wall Street it can make good on its promises.

On Wednesday, the 158-year-old investment bank outlined a blueprint to sell off its well-respected investment management unit and spin off its commercial real estate assets. The strategy is part of a last-ditch effort to rescue the investment bank from bad bets on real estate-related holdings that have already laid low other storied Wall Street firms.

....

The nation's fourth-largest investment bank plans to sell a 55 percent stake in its investment management division, which includes its prized Neuberger Berman asset management unit. Lehman said it is in advanced talks with several bidders, but refused to give a timeline about when a deal would take place.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_bi_ge/lehman_brothers

[UpInArms]

32. Lehman falls 40%, drags sector along with it

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/lehman-falls-40-drags-sector/story.aspx?guid=%7B3A7B614A%2D9A27%2D4884%2DA363%2D0544EE0CFFCE%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc (LEH: 4.28, -2.97, -41.0%) fell almost 40% Thursday as investors and analysts weighed in with their disappointment in the company's survival plan unveiled yesterday. Analysts at Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs downgraded the shares. The Amex Securities Brokmer/Dealer Index (XBD: 128.86, -7.16, -5.3%) fell 4.5% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF: 20.25, -0.72, -3.4%)

[UpInArms]

33. Lehman plunges as investors doubt survival

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_bi_ge/lehman_brothers;_ylt=AojFWhn46bCK.48z01B04muyBhIF

NEW YORK - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s rescue plan is getting a dismal reception from Wall Street with shares of the battered bank plunging 41 percent.

The stock price unraveled in early trading Thursday after analyst reports cast doubt that the nation's fourth-largest investment bank can survive.

Shares fell $2.99, or 41 percent, to $4.26 — down more than 94 percent from their 52-week high of $67.73.

Other financial stocks were also pulled lower amid fear that banks and brokerages still have more pain to go before the year-old credit crisis begins to wane.

...more...

[Roland99]

58. CNBC reporting that Lehman is looking for a "white knight" to buy the entire firm.

[ozymandius]

6. Oil brokers sex scandal may affect drilling debate

WASHINGTON - A scandal involving sex, drugs and — uh, offshore oil drilling. It's a strange mix, and it couldn't have come at a worse time for those in Congress pressing to expand oil and gas development off America's beaches while trying to stave off an election-year rush by Democrats to impose new taxes and royalties on the oil industry.

An Interior Department investigation describing a "culture of substance abuse and promiscuity" by workers at the agency that issues offshore drilling leases and collects royalties hit lawmakers Wednesday just as they prepared for votes next week on expanding offshore drilling.

Between 2002 and 2006, 19 oil marketers — nearly a third of the Denver office staff — received gifts and gratuities from oil and gas companies, including Chevron Corp., Shell, Hess Corp. and Denver-based Gary-Williams Energy Corp., the investigators found.

"Employees frequently consumed alcohol at industry functions, had used cocaine and marijuana, and had sexual relationships with oil and natural gas company representatives" who referred to some of the government workers as the "MMS Chicks."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/interior_oil_scandal

---

Why is he smiling?

[Ghost Dog]

19. House Democrats Expand Proposed Oil, Gas Drilling (chanting "drill, drill,")

Source: WSJ

WASHINGTON -- House Democrats, some chanting "drill, drill," embraced a plan to open the door for more oil and natural-gas exploration along the entire U.S. coastline, in a shift showing the power of the energy issue in this election.

Under a compromise bill hammered out in a series of closed-door meetings Wednesday on Capitol Hill, the House Democratic leadership agreed on a plan that would authorize drilling along the entire coastline, though new production would hinge on states agreeing to participate. Previously, Democrats proposed opening the door to expanded drilling along only a portion of the Atlantic seaboard, from Virginia to Georgia, and the Gulf Coast of Florida.

The new proposal would potentially open areas off the coast of California that have been closed to new oil drilling for more than two decades. The measure could be voted on as soon as Friday.

The Democrats' turnabout marks a victory for the oil industry and Republicans, who have seized on the drilling issue in recent months. With gasoline prices still high at the pump, polls show Americans in favor of expanded oil production at home, and Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has made the issue central to his campaign, as have congressional Republicans.

/... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3482693

[Pale Blue Dot]

21. Fuck the chanters.

Sorry if I offended anyone. :grr:

[UpInArms]

61. four legs bad, two legs good!

:hi:

[MUAD_DIB]

25. "MMS Chicks..."

I sit here shaking my head on this one, and I have been shaking my head for the past seven years with all the shit that has gone on.

Is it a reach to imagine that these "oil and natural gas company representatives" were nothing more than paid hookers: on the bankroll of these companies?

I just can't imagine that one would pimp themselves out sexually so their oil company bosses could make large profits.


How does everyone else feel about this?

[Hugin]

35. I took special note of the "Pay-for-Performance" program and how it was referenced in this situation

How can anyone claim it's the way-to-go?

The entire US Government has been converted to a pay-to-play system... or a spoils-system where everyone is
beholding to the chief.

It's disgusting and as long as we are a Abramoff "K" Street Corporatist Lobbiostocracy it isn't going to change. No matter who's nominally in charge.

Please, let me extend your question...

How much of a connection does everyone think there is between this example of extreme corruption and the
"Drill, Baby, Drill" coming from the Republicans as a whole and the McCain/Palin team in particular?

It's obvious to me that they're pretty tightly coupled.

[Hugin]

36. Where'd you find the cool picture of Jabba-the-Hut? n/t

[ozymandius]

84. Just do a google image search for Lee Raymond.

Mr. Rich Filth's jowls are all over the internet.

[UpInArms]

52. from Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1043918820080911?sp=true

He said many of the employees did not believe federal government ethics standards and department policies applied to them because of their "unique" role.

"Employees said they felt that in order to effectively perform their official duties, they needed to interact in social settings with industry representatives to obtain 'market intelligence,'" he said.

One agency worker went so far as to say that a goal of the royalty-in-kind program was to be "part of the industry," Devaney said.

Rep. Nick Rahall, chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, said the activities of the Minerals Management Service staff "are so outlandish that this whole IG report reads like a script from a television miniseries -- and one that cannot air during family viewing time."

Rahall, a West Virginia Democrat, said it was no wonder the Minerals Management Service was doing a poor job of overseeing the government's oil royalty program.

"Clearly the employees had 'other' priorities in that office," he said.

[Dr.Phool]

55. Some real James Bonds there.

Trying to gain intelligence. Did they have any in the first place?

sigh. All the good jobs are taken.

[TalkingDog]

56. Where's the brain bleach? Mineral Oil.....

One assumes they weren't using condoms then?


*wondering why I don't have a switch in my brain that prevents it from "going there"?*

[AnneD]

64. There were always working girls...

at any of these gathering, but I always thought they were 'independent contractors'.

Naughty Oil Terms

Sucker well
laying pipe
What fluid are you using?
Abnormal pressure
acid fracture and stimulation
Air hoist-it gets kinky
annular blowout preventor
backbite
bent sub
blowout-too many connected to this-like preventor, ring, etc
bottomhole plug-pressure assembly, pump
casing head
circulating head
come out of the hole
coupling
crooked hole
Going into the hole
lost pipe, circulation
make up a joint
Night tool pusher
packer squeeze method ram blowout preventer
rate of penetration
rod blowout preventor
tool pusher
trip in, trip out, tripping

It's a macho culture.

[Demeter]

95. You Reminded Me of a Very Suggestive Rendering of Maxwell's Equations

which I haven't seen in 30 years or so....and probably couldn't understand today!

[NeoConsSuck]

7. Looking at the futures

it looks like another day of tourniquets and bandages.

I think Obama has the 401k vote locked up :)

[ozymandius]

14. Futures at 6:25am ET: Lehman death watch edition

S&P futures vs fair value: -12.20.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.00.

[ozymandius]

9. Senate report says dividend taxes being dodged

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. financial institutions are using stock swaps and intricate loan transactions to help foreign investors avoid paying billions of dollars in taxes on dividends paid by U.S. companies, according to a Senate report to be released on Thursday.

....

The committee estimates that using offshore entities to avoid paying U.S. taxes costs the federal treasury about $100 billion annually. The report did not put a specific amount on tax losses due to stock swaps and loans transactions with offshore entities, but said the amount is "substantial."

....

The report provided case studies of transactions by six financial institutions: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG, Merrill Lynch & Co Inc and Citigroup Inc.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1050690820080911

[NeoConsSuck]

10. Fed May Expand Funding Aid to Banks in a `Mother of Year-Ends'

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may have to increase the cash it provides to banks and brokers, already a record, to help them balance their books at the end of the year.

Six bank failures in the past two months and rising concern about Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s capital levels pushed lenders' borrowing costs to near a four-month high yesterday. They may climb further as companies rush for cash to settle trades and buttress their balance sheets at year-end.

``This could be the mother of year-ends,'' said Brian Sack, vice president of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington, who used to serve as head of monetary and financial market analysis at the Fed. ``The markets will need extraordinary actions to get through it.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aavHtPEY4aCc&refer=home

[ozymandius]

12. Santa Claus rally? Year-end bonuses?

Somehow I feel these are destined for "good ol' days" stories.

[Dr.Phool]

20. If there's any money lift in the treasury at the end of the year

Chimp and Cheney are going to make sure their cronies get it.

[ozymandius]

13. Slope Of Bailouts Is Slippery And Expensive ("What has Paulson Wrought?")

Inquiring minds are asking "What has Paulson Wrought?"

That's a good question. So let's see what we can find starting with a look at the unintended consequences of the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) taxpayer sponsored bailout forced down our throats by Treasury Secretary Paulson.

.....

Slope Of Bailouts Is Slippery And Expensive

Not only are taxpayers on the hook for $200 billion dollars, but the Paulson sponsored bailout has caused even more mistrust and resentment of the system.

A quick check of my calendar shows next week is options expirations week. What stunt might Bernanke and the SEC pull now? Eliminate naked shorting across the board through the end of the year? Conduct a séance? Howl at the moon?

.....

Printing Presses Are Ready To Roll

The zombified banks will sit there pretending they have cash to lend and the Fed will pretend that banks are well capitalized. Inflationists will be screaming inflation and they will still be wrong. Bank credit marked to market will continue to collapse at a rate far greater than the printing for quite some time.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/slope-of-bailouts-is-slippery-and.html

[UpInArms]

23. Big fund firms among top holders in sinking stocks

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080910/bs_nm/funds_losers_dc

BOSTON (Reuters) - Some of America's biggest and best-known mutual fund companies likely suffered heavy losses multiple times this week because they had large holdings in the market's worst performing stocks.

AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB.N), which invests $675 billion, may have been the biggest casualty. It ranked as the top shareholder in ailing investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N), where it owned 65.6 million shares, and crippled mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM.N), where it owned 134.2 million shares, at the end of June.

At Fannie's cousin Freddie Mac (FRE.N), AllianceBernstein was the third biggest holder with 41 million shares.

On Tuesday, Lehman's stock tumbled 46 percent, while Fannie Mae cratered 90 percent, and Freddie Mac plunged 85 percent on Monday. While the companies' share prices have recovered somewhat, losses remain enormous overall, with Fannie having given up early all of its value in the last 52 weeks, for example.

Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund company with $1.5 trillion invested had also loaded up on this week's losers. The privately held company ranked as the third largest investor in Lehman and the fourth biggest owner at Fannie. At Freddie, Fidelity ranked in 10th position.

Capital Group, which runs the popular American Funds, was the second biggest investor in Freddie Mac and the third biggest in Fannie Mae. And Legg Mason Inc, home to Bill Miller who was ranked as America's best stock picker for 15 years, held more Freddie shares than anyone else, while Legg's ClearBridge unit was the second biggest owner of Lehman stock.

"Fidelity and Capital Group are so big that they are bound to be among the biggest owners in whatever they own," said Morningstar analyst Christopher Davis.

...more...

[TalkingDog]

40. Let them eat cake

The Independent Community Bankers of America are "mad as hell" and they're not going to take it anymore.

http://www.icba.org/advocacy/index.cfm?ItemNumber=48798


Well, given that it's seemingly only a problem when it affects them, my bonnet suddenly developed a rather substantial number of bees....

So I found the President's email addy and penned a note thusly:

Regarding your article of 9/10/08 "Let Them Eat Cake":

I may not be the first, nor the last "civilian" to say to you: "Welcome to our world, bankster."

You and yours sat back and let the products of Reagan's "deregulation" line your pockets quite nicely for the last 20 years. You remember the "Trickle Down Theory of Economics", don'tcha? Sucking up all the gains the middle and lower classes have made since the advent of the New Deal and putting it in the pockets of the top 1%. Gutting access to education, advancement and mobility for all us poor working schmoes so that all we had left was borrowing against your "exotic financial vehicles".

Well, honey, guess what? Now it's your turn. The logical end result of Regan's great Ponzi Scheme is falling apart and the 1%-ers are thirsty for just a little bit more. They are determined to take every last bit of change out of everybody's pocket; now including yours.

Regan's famous "Welfare Queen" showed us all that poverty and need are not just financial failings, they are moral failings. That providing charity and aide to the undeserving poor is immoral, since it rewards and even encourages sloth, licentious behaviour, and other "sins". That in the narrative of Manifest Destiny being labeled a member of the undeserving poor in the "can-do" United States of America, is an especially painful stigma. Because in rhetoric, if not always in reality, America is supposed to be "the best poor man's country," a place where ambitious individuals were not bound by rigid socioeconomic hierarchies and can ALWAYS radically transform themselves through the merits of hard work.

So, I'm going provide you the same trite Horatio Alger based idioms you and yours have tacitly given us for the past 20 years:

Poor people want to be poor, otherwise they'd be rich.

If you want to make it, you can. All it takes is hard work. Just pull yourself up by your bootstraps.
(.....Oh, you don't have boots? Well, use your leg hairs then.)

All it takes is a good idea and a little effort and anyone can succeed.

So buck up, there sport. Things will get better. You just need to keep your nose to the grindstone, don't ask too many questions and do some constructive things, like develop a budget. That will surely get you through the hard times.

Cynically yours

Talking Dog

[Hugin]

42. Great!

But, you forgot... "Let's run the Government like a Business!" :sarcasm:

[Demeter]

46. Thing Is, They DID!

Using all the latest cockamamie theories of Harvard, Yale and Chicgo. And both business and govt. went down the chute.

[Hugin]

48. My point exactly...

They obviously don't know how to run either.


Edit to add: They didn't run either one in the wider interests of the Public... Only their own wallet or so they
thought. Turns out it was in the interest of Have More's wallets.

[UpInArms]

47. woot! woot!

:applause:

[Zenlitened]

54. "...next week is options expirations week..."

Quadruple witching, isn't it?

[ozymandius]

87. Yessiree.

It happens on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. That's the day I chose in the pool when the market averages will retrace their levels when President Stupid took office.

[Dr.Phool]

92. Ding! Ding! Ding!

You may have a winner. It's getting close.

You might even see Ed McMahon pull up out front.

[ozymandius]

15. European Stocks Fall, Led by Home Retail; U.S. Futures Decline

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell for a third day as concern deepened the economic slowdown will hurt earnings for retailers and financial firms, overshadowing a rebound in mining and oil shares. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also declined.

Home Retail Group Plc sank 7.5 percent after the home- improvement chain reported lower sales. William Morrison Supermarkets Plc tumbled the most in eight months after Chief Executive Officer Mark Bolland said he expects ``a tough second- half.'' Bank of Ireland Plc fell 3.5 percent after Dresdner Kleinwort warned of rising bad-debt levels.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 1.1 percent to 274.20 as of 11:03 a.m. in London, extending this year's drop to 25 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.2 percent, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 2.6 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQevqT0BcIM&refer=worldwide

[Ghost Dog]

17. World equities at 2-yr low, dollar surges

* MSCI world equity index down 0.8 pct at 313.35

... Emerging sovereign debt spreads were trading around their widest levels in more than three years at 331 basis points over U.S. Treasuries 11EMJ, while benchmark emerging equities .MSCIEF fell 2 percent to the lowest since Nov 2006.

Emerging economies are sensitive to demand in developed markets, and the larger ones have also been a driver of global demand.

"The market has completely switched its focus to the global growth slowdown," said analysts at BNP Paribas in a client note. "The market believes global growth will no longer hold up asset prices."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLB10936920080911?rpc=44&sp=true


Nikkei hits 6-month closing low, banks down on Lehman

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei average fell 2 percent to a nearly six-month closing low on Thursday, with banks like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) suffering after Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) failed to alleviate worries about its ability to survive the credit crisis.

Blue-chip exporters such as Canon Inc (7751.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped amid uncertainty about the health of the global economy, while slides in other Asian equity markets during the afternoon added impetus to the Nikkei's decline.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUST33558020080911

[Ghost Dog]

18. FACTBOX-Asian economies get billions in fiscal stimulus

Sept 11 (Reuters) - Several Asian governments have launched multi-billion dollar plans to help their economies in the face of weakening domestic demand and as business with their key export markets, Europe and the United States, deteriorates.

Following is a list of how much countries are spending and what steps they are taking:

China has increased value added tax rebates to textile exporters, and state newspapers say contingency planning for a fiscal stimulus package is under way.

...

Hong Kong's government, awash with cash after a four-year economic boom boosted public revenues, announced a HK$45 billion ($5.8 billion) package of concessions and handouts in its annual budget in February -- including a one-off cut in income tax and temporary waivers on public housing rent.

In addition, it abolished tax on wine and cut salaries tax and corporate tax by one percentage point each.

In July, the government announced a further HK$11 billion of measures to help lower income groups and the elderly cope with inflation, which is now above 6 percent.

Measures included extending a waiver on public housing rent, assistance to buy food and extra subsidies to help pay utility bills. The total HK$56 billion package is equivalent to around 3.5 percent of last year's GDP.

- JAPAN

Asia's biggest economy and the world's second largest compiled a package of steps to help small businesses and individuals cope with high oil and food prices late last month, including 1.8 trillion yen ($16.8 billion) in new spending -- roughly 0.4 percent of GDP.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP6205520080911?rpc=44&sp=true

[Roland99]

24. Dollar at 80.12. Euro below 1.40

[UpInArms]

22. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.072 Change -0.047 (-0.06%)

Pound Breaks Below 1.75, Inflation Expectations Hits New Record

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/top_fx_market_movers/9_11_FXH_1221131426644.html

• GBPUSD – The BoE’s August Inflation Attitudes Survey showed that the inflation expectations surged to a new record high of 4.4% from 4.3% in May. Furthermore, BoE Governor Mervyn King said that the recent depreciation of the British Pound may fuel upside inflation risks going forward, which suggests that the MPC will not lower the benchmark interest rate until next year. However, David Blachflower continued to hold a dovish outlook as he expects unemployment conditions to worsen over the coming months, and anticipates economic activity to remain subdued for the rest of the year. For more news and resources, visit our GBP/USD Forum.

• EURUSD - The European Commission lowered their growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.7% for the Euro-Zone, and expects Germany and Spain to slip into a technical recession later this year. Despite the dour outlook held by the commission, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber dissented on the views, stating that ‘there is no need to see the medium-term outlook in an overly gloomy light or even raise the specter of a deep recession.’ Furthermore, the ECB bulletin stated that inflation remains at a ‘worrying level,’ noting that upside prices pressures will likely keep inflation above the central bank’s 2% target until 2010. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell more than expected to 7.4% from the record high reading of 9.9% in July on the back of falling oil prices. For more news and resources, visit our EUR/USD Forum.

• AUDUSD – Inflation expectations for the $1T economy slipped to 4.4% from 4.9% in August as economic activity cools amid falling oil prices. The downward revision for inflation suggests that the RBA may hold a dovish outlook for inflation, which could lead to potential rate cuts in the near future. Meanwhile, the Australian economy added 14.6K jobs in August, which beat expectations of a 5.9K increase. The bigger than expected rise in employment helped the to lower the jobless rate to 4.1% from 4.3% in July. For more news and resources, visit our Australian Dollar Currency Room



...more...

Dollar Advance May Taper As Speculation Of Fed Cut Resurfaces

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/Dollar_Advance_May_Taper_As_1221075493134.html

The dollar pushed to an 11-month high today as crude prices approached $100/barrel and fears in the financial sector were quieted. However, dark clouds are gathering.



The Economy And The Credit Market



The dollar pushed to an 11-month high today as crude prices approached $100/barrel and fears in the financial sector were quieted. However, dark clouds are gathering. While other fundamental drivers may be sustaining the short-term drive, Fed forecasts may ultimately decide the dollar’s fate through the end of this year. With consumer spending threatening to send the US economy into a genuine recession through the second half and the financial sector averting monumental crashes through government bailouts alone, traders are seeing greater (albeit modest) scope for the FOMC to turn once again to rate cuts. Looking out to the December 16th meeting, Fed fund futures are pricing in a 19 percent chance that policy makers could cut 25 basis points to 1.75 percent. Overnight index swaps confirm these fears. For reference, the last time we saw such dour forecasts was in April.



<snip>

The Financial And Capital Markets

There is clear conflict in the capital market between short-term reassurance and long-term growth fears. Keeping the benchmark equity and bond yield indexes buoyant so far this week, the FHA’s takeover of the United State’s two largest lenders (accounting for nearly 50 percent of all mortgages) has cooled fears that lending would seize and access to credit would disappear. What’s more, key commodity prices have maintained their steady descent. Despite news that OPEC would be cutting production and Hurricane Ike was passing through the Gulf of Mexico, crude has steadily moved towards $100/barrel. This certainly removes one of the key weights on global activity going forward. However, with a number of the world’s largest economies looking at recessions, there is more than enough reason to move out of risky assets. The US, Euro-Zone and UK are three major industrialized economies expected to be suffering from recession by year’s end.



...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Reasons to be cautious on wave of dollar optimism

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSLB3306120080911?sp=true

LONDON (Reuters) - Just as investors and forecasters form a consensus on the dollar entering a period of prolonged strength that could last for years, the caveats are materializing in tandem and some experts urge caution.

From shorter-term factors like the market's lopsided positioning to longer-term concerns over the perilous state of the U.S. economy, housing sector, banks and fiscal position, sustained dollar strength is by no means a given, contrarians argue.

The dollar has shown remarkable resilience in recent days to a jump in the U.S. unemployment rate to a five-year high above 6 percent and the de facto nationalization of mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which potentially adds hundreds of billions of dollars to the U.S. budget deficit.

The dollar is on track for its biggest quarterly rise versus a basket of six major currencies .DXY since 1992 as investors repatriate foreign asset holdings en masse amid a renewed crisis of confidence in U.S. banks like Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

But in uncertain times, some argue, scared money comes home -- at least U.S. money. Having piled into foreign assets and markets during the dollar's decline in recent years, U.S. investors are now cutting those positions and bringing their cash back home.

But in a report titled "Has the World Gone Mad? Part 3: 'Liquidation', the Dollar and Geopolitics", Bernard Connolly at Banque AIG in London argues that the case for further dollar appreciation is still in the balance.

...more...

[UpInArms]

53. more information:

"If Fannie and Freddie hit the federal budget, the dollar rally may hit the rails," said Neal Kimberley, head of FX sales at BTM-UFJ in London.

For the dollar, whose lifeblood is deficit financing from abroad, this is a worry. The current repatriation stampede back into the dollar may soon fizzle out, leaving few fundamental reasons to remain a long-term buyer of the currency.

"I am not suggesting that once the market is out of risk it will be a return to a record dollar low versus the euro, but I do think we are due to see a healthy retracement of the 20-cent move from $1.60 (per euro) to $1.40 in eight weeks," said David Gilmore, partner at FX analytics in Essex, Connecticut.

[Roland99]

69. Is that maybe where all the money is heading to out of commodities?

[UpInArms]

26. SEC's New York attorney to leave: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080911/bs_nm/markschonfeld_sec_dc

(Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's top New York enforcement attorney is expected to leave next month for a law firm, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.

Mark Schonfeld, 45, has been the top cop at the SEC's New York regional office since 2004 and has overseen and investigated some of the biggest cases to have crossed Wall Street.

One person familiar with the matter told the Journal that Schonfeld was heading to Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP.

...a very itty bit more...

[UpInArms]

27. City National to take $12-$13 mln charge in Q3

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG24958120080911

Sept 11 (Reuters) - City National Corp (CYN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the parent of City National Bank, said it expects to incur a non-cash charge of $12 million to $13 million in the third quarter related to its exposure to the mortgage giants.

In a filing with U.S. regulators, City National said its perpetual preferred investments in Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are included in securities available for sale at a cost of $23.6 million, which accounts for about 1 percent of its investment portfolio.

City National added it does not hold any common stock or other equity securities issued by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

City National's move follows the U.S. government's bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Sunday, in what could be its biggest bailout ever in a bid to support the U.S. housing market and ward off more global financial market turbulence.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Today's bailouts find roots in the Greenscam's handling of LTCM

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/birth-wall-streets-bailout-culture/story.aspx?guid=%7B3603B663%2DEF7F%2D4556%2D842E%2D5EF80525476A%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- In less than two weeks, Wall Street will pass a milestone that on the surface probably doesn't seem to have much relevance today: the 10th anniversary of the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management.

But the LTCM near-collapse and rescue set in motion Wall Street's unchecked rush to risk during the decade by signaling to the market that the government would ultimately come to the rescue.

Wall Street is a kids' game, so let's refresh our memories. Everyone born before 1990 can skip ahead a couple of paragraphs.

LTCM was a hedge fund run by former Salomon Brothers bond whiz John Meriwether and a half dozen other traders. They raised $1.01 billion in 1994 and ended up with derivative positions of about $1.25 trillion, built on leverage, when the bets turned bad and lenders started asking for their money in the summer of 1998.

LTCM was strapped for cash. So, rather than unwind its positions and send the market into turmoil, the Federal Reserve Board of New York organized a $3.75 billion bailout paid for by Wall Street banks. The cash allowed LTCM to meet its obligations as it unwound its trades.

<snip>

The unwritten message, what the bankers call moral hazard, was simple: come a crisis, the government will do everything it can to avoid a collapse. The leverage at Wall Street banks remains high. At Lehman, the ratio of debt to equity is 10.6, and this is after the bank spent nine months reducing its leverage. At the time of the LTCM meltdown the ratio at Lehman was 6.2.

...more...

[burf]

38. I think was

Charles Walters of the Ag publication Acres USA put it best. (I paraphrase) In the Great Depression, they let the banks fail to save the dollar. In this crisis, they are destroying the dollar to save the banks.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

34. Where the Asian Pixies Play

It goes up overnight, it comes down during the day.

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude Future 103.09 .51 .50 09:09
Dated Brent Spot 97.25 -.38 -.39 09:39
WTI Cushing Spot 102.63 .05 .05 09:19


PETROLEUM (¢/gal)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Heating Oil Future 297.12 6.88 2.37 09:08
Nymex RBOB Gasoline Future 280.17 14.01 5.26 09:09


NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Henry Hub Future 7.54 .15 2.02 09:09
Henry Hub Spot 7.66 .37 5.08 09/10
New York City Gate Spot 8.02 .30 3.89 09/10


ELECTRICITY ($/megawatt hour)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Mid-Columbia, firm on-peak, spot 59.23 2.73 4.83 09/10
Palo Verde, firm on-peak, spot 58.08 1.95 3.47 09/10
Bloomberg, firm on-peak, day ahead spot/West Coast 69.45

[Dr.Phool]

37. Talk about a spin job. "Jobless claims down less than expected".

Yeah, you fucking assholes. They were actually up more than expected.

Pathetic.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26656420/

Jobless claims down less than expected
Struggling U.S. economy continues to take a toll on workers




updated 51 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - New applications for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week, the U.S. government said Thursday, as the struggling economy continues to take a toll on workers.

The Labor Department reported that applications for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 445,000, down by 6,000 from the prior week. That is above analysts’ expectations of 440,000.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, rose slightly to 440,000.

(snip)

[UpInArms]

39. AIG has $600 million Fannie, Freddie preferred: source

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN794220080911

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's largest insurer, holds between $550 million and $600 million in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred shares, according to a source familiar with the investment.

Investors have been biting their nails over companies' holdings of the agencies' preferred shares, with concern that the recent government takeover of the giant home-funding companies could wipe out value.

Insurers in total own about $4 billion in Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) preferred stock, according to earlier figures compiled by rating agency A.M. Best.

[Dr.Phool]

45. I wonder how much insurers, such as State Farm and Allstate are holding.

With a major hurricane bearing down on Houston, all I can say is "ruh roh".

[AnneD]

65. Even though you are driving less...

and having fewer rates-look for them to go up. Same with malpractice ins. The Insurance companies NEVER take a hit that they don't pass along.

[Dr.Phool]

76. It's homeowners that I'm worried about.

Rates are legalized extortion in Florida. And State Farm just had the nerve to ask for a 47% increase.

[UpInArms]

50. Goldman may take $2 billion mark-to-market loss: Deutsche

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSBNG35455020080911

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) may incur mark-to-market losses of about $2 billion from its remaining exposure to troubled assets, said Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo, who cut his third-quarter earnings outlook for the company.

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette, Woods also cut their quarterly profit forecast on the largest U.S. securities firm.

Shares of Goldman Sachs fell as much as 5 percent in morning trade on Thursday, after analysts cut their estimates and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) weak third-quarter results sparked worries over the health of the financial sector.

"Given the fall-off of volumes in the latter part of the quarter, drop in commodities prices, derivative volatility and poor performance for hedge funds in the quarter, we believe Goldman equities trading business could be one of the worst in years," KBW analysts Lauren Smith and Joel Jeffrey said.

Smith and Jeffrey cut their earnings estimates on Goldman to $1.40 a share from $2.17 for the third quarter and to $13.57 a share from $14.35 for fiscal 2008.

The analysts cut their price target on the shares to $184 from $200. They have an "outperform" rating on the stock.

Deutsche's Mayo cut his third-quarter earnings view for Goldman to $1.60 a share from $2.40 to reflect negative markdowns on principal investments and weaker-than-expected capital markets, according to a brokerage note dated September 10.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

66. Maine: Bank and Credit Union want to merge

9/10/08 Two Augusta-based financial institutions -- a federal credit union and a state-chartered savings bank -- announced plans Tuesday to merge in a move to boost efficiency and position themselves for growth in a crowded banking market.

The merger -- if it gains regulatory approval -- would mark a first in Maine and it would be among the first instances nationally of a credit union combining with a savings bank.

The institutions, Kennebec Savings Bank and KV Federal Credit Union, have long discussed the possibility of a merger, said Mark L. Johnston, President and Chief Executive Officer of Kennebec Savings Bank. Those discussions have accelerated in recent months, he said.

The companies have set June 30, 2009, as a "loose target" for completing the merger, Johnston said.

The merged bank, which would carry Kennebec Savings Bank's name, would have combined assets of approximately $702 million, according to the companies. Kennebec Savings Bank counts $651 million in assets while KV Federal Credit Union has $51 million on the books.

The combined bank's headquarters would be located at Kennebec Savings Bank's State Street offices in Augusta. Other company locations would remain open, the officials said. Kennebec Savings has offices in Winthrop and Waterville while the credit union has offices in Augusta and Oakland. Customers would also have access to both companies' ATMs.

more...
http://kennebecjournal.mainetoday.com/news/local/5393706.html

[Joanne98]

67. Who do u think is going to buy Lehman?

Any guesses?

[Roland99]

68. Doesn't appear to be Goldman. Wonder if Carlyle Group is in the running?

[Joanne98]

70. Cramer said Bank of America for Lehman. Wells Fargo for WaMu

[Roland99]

71. Cramer, eh? I'd take that with the world's largest grain of salt.

[Joanne98]

72. Yeah I know, but he's the only one who has speculated yet.

[Demeter]

96. Arabs

There's a couple of nephews who need a title and salary....

[Joanne98]

74. Carry Trade Rout Continues

The Central Bank of New Zealand Cut Benchmark Lending Rate 50 Basis Points and announced "We have room to move".


New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a half point to 7.5 percent, more than forecast by most economists, saying the economy is in a recession and inflation will slow.

The nation's currency dropped to a 22-month low, and bond yields fell after the decision. "We've got room to move, "Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in an interview from Wellington today "We're in a loosening mode."

Bollard, 57, said the economy is in its first recession since 1998 as the jobless rate rises, housing slumps, retail sales drop and a drought cuts farm exports. The New Zealand dollar, a favorite of the so-called carry trade, has dived 13 percent since July 24, when Bollard cut the benchmark for the first time in five years from a record.

New Zealand's dollar fell to as low as 64.95 U.S. cents from 66.26 cents immediately before the decision. That's the lowest since Oct. 2, 2006. It traded at 65.15 cents at 5:10 p.m. in Wellington. The three-year bond yield fell 19 basis points to 5.72 percent.

Retail sales fell by the most in at least 13 years in the second quarter as consumer confidence slumped and record-high gasoline prices left households with little to spend on discretionary goods.

House sales fell to a 16-year low in June and residential construction dropped for three consecutive quarters.

The jobless rate rose to a two-year high in the second quarter.

The Reserve Bank of Australia this month lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in seven years as economic growth weakens. Governor Glenn Stevens said this week it may be six months before inflation eases.
Carry Trade Hell

In spite of what the ECB says about inflation, expect it to start cutting rates just as New Zealand and Australia did. Such action will further support the carry trade route. It's only a matter of time before the ECB cuts rates and Europe will be fully entrenched in a recession when they do.

Dollar Rises to One-Year High Against Euro

Bloomberg is reporting Dollar Rises to One-Year High Against Euro on Growth Outlook

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest level in a year against the euro on speculation that economic growth in Europe will be slower than in the U.S., prompting the region's central bank to lower interest rates.

The U.S. currency climbed for a second day as traders raised bets that the European Central Bank will cut borrowing costs before a government report tomorrow likely to show industrial production in the euro area shrank. New Zealand's dollar dropped to its lowest level since October 2006 after Alan Bollard, governor of the nation's central bank, reduced interest rates by more than economists expected.

"We've got this dollar strength for several weeks now that is driving currency markets and the fundamental picture is underpinning this," said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender. "The euro-zone economy is going into recession. This is a growth-differential story."
Fundamental Picture Is Underpinning The Dollar

Let's emphasize that last paragraph because it is something commodity bulls simply fail to see.

"We've got this dollar strength for several weeks now that is driving currency markets and the fundamental picture is underpinning this," said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender. "The euro-zone economy is going into recession. This is a growth-differential story."

Technical Nonsense

ECB's Wellink Says Too Soon to Say Slower Growth to Damp Prices

European Central Bank Governing Council member Nout Wellink said it's too soon to conclude that a possible recession in the euro region will damp inflation.

"I think you can't rule out a technical recession, but I think we concentrate too much on precise GDP figures," Wellink told reporters in Nice, France today. Asked if slower growth would bring down inflation, he said "it's too early to draw conclusions on this."
Talk of a "technical recession" is technically nonsense just as the talk of the US not being in a recession (also based on GDP) is technically nonsense.

Note: Bloomberg has changed the above link. The text and comments are accurate as is the headline. The original article is gone.

Japan In Recession

In Japan Machine Orders Fall 3.9%, Second Monthly Drop.

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell for a second month in July, signaling manufacturers expect the global slowdown to crimp demand into next year.

Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, declined 3.9 percent from June, when they slid 2.6 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.

Japan's economy probably shrank last quarter more than initially estimated as business spending fell, the government is expected to report tomorrow. Slowdowns in the U.S. and Europe have taken a toll on Japanese exports, the engine that drove growth over the past six years, while stagnating wages and the worst inflation in a decade have subdued consumer spending.
Rupee Falls to 2-year Low

In India the Rupee Falls to 2-year Low as Dollar Gains Spur Importer Demand.

India's rupee fell to the lowest level in almost two years on speculation investors and importers stepped up purchases of the U.S. currency as the dollar rallied against the euro to the highest in a year.

The rupee dropped the most in more than three weeks, sliding in tandem with eight other most-active Asian currencies outside Japan, on concern widening credit-market losses will slow economic growth. India's benchmark stock index has slumped 29.4 percent this year, heading for the first annual loss since 2001, as overseas funds dumped $7.4 billion more local equities than they bought.

"Importers with short-term liabilities are covering aggressively at a time when dollar supply is very limited," said Parthasarathi Mukherjee, treasurer at Axis Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. "The sentiment for the dollar is strengthening globally and that is adding to the momentum against the rupee."

The U.S. dollar has advanced against all of the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg in the past three months as commodities declined. The ICE's Dollar Index, measuring the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, touched 80.375 today, the highest since September 2007.

Crude oil in New York has dropped almost 30 percent from an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials has declined 22 percent from a July peak.

The European Commission cut its growth outlook for the 15- nation euro area for the rest of this year, predicting a recession for Germany, the region's largest economy. The U.K. economy is contracting for the first time in at least a decade and will go through a recession this year, two reports showed yesterday.
Expect the Carry Trade To Continue To Unwind

The unwinding of the carry trade is US dollar favorable and commodity unfriendly. That carry trade unwinding has a long way to go.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/carry-trade-rout-continues.html

[Roland99]

75. Whoa!! WTF hit the markets in the last few min. there?

Shot up like a Republican at a revival meeting.

[TheWatcher]

77. Well, if we didn't "Catch" Bin Laden, then it was just the normal, blatant manipulation

We have been seeing for the past few years. It isn't real ,and has no basis with any kind of fundamental reality.

They don't even try to hide it anymore.

Their system is collapsing.

Do not have ANY illusions about what they will do, or the lengths they will go to save it.

Especially at the expense of the rest of us.

My best guess is that there is some new rumor, spin, or scheme that will be announced in the next hour, probably about someone buying Lehman or WAMU.

Tomorrow it will all turn out to be bullshit, as it always is, and even if it isn't, it changes NOTHING.

What sick, sick depths we have fallen to.

[Joanne98]

78. "Free Bank" Craig's List. LOL

[TheWatcher]

79. And as expected, just more bullshit.

Apparently the rumor over at the WSJ is that Bank Of America MAY be in talks to buy Lehman.

What does this mean for the rest of us, as far as getting an actual REAL Economy again, that is beneficial to everybody? Absolutely nothing. But it will be good for a 40 Kegger on Wall Street.

Have I mentioned today how much I HATE These People?

16:05 LEH Lehman Brothers: Additional detail on earlier headline of BAC in talks to buy LEH (4.22 -3.03) -Update-

WSJ reports the co is actively shopping itself to potential suitors, including Bank of America (BAC), people familiar with the matter said.

The need for a sale intensified as Lehman's shares dropped 45% in Thursday trading, creating new doubts about its ability to trade with other Wall Street cos while keeping its best talent.

But potential buyers remain wary about plugging holes in Lehman's balance sheet, and are increasingly looking to the U.S. government to help backstop future losses, according to people familiar with the talks. A number of these buyers would "come out of the woodwork," if the U.S. were to step in, said one person monitoring the process.

It remains unclear whether the U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve would take such steps, as was done when the government assisted J.P. Morgan Chase in its Bear Stearns takeover in March. Bank of America, which is holding preliminary discussions about a transaction, appeared to be Lehman's best hope on Thursday afternoon.

BofA may only do a Lehman deal if it is encouraged by the federal government, since it has its hands full digesting mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. Still, the situation was so fluid Thursday that people involved in the deal talks said it was too soon to say what shape a sale would take or if it would happen at all.

Without explicit government support, a range of other suitors have proven uninterested in absorbing Lehman and its $600 billion balance sheet. Goldman Sachs (GS), for example, is not bidding on the company, said a person familiar with the matter. Other much-discussed buyers, including France's BNP Paribas, the UK's HSBC (HBC), Germany's Deutsche Bank (DB), Spain's Banco Santander (BBD), are not expected to participate.

One outside potential remains Barclays (BCS), the UK's third largest bank which has been eager to expand its investment-banking franchise around the globe.

[AnneD]

80. This will be the last post for a while.....

they are predicting winds of at least 95 mph in my area and most of Houston. I called the managers at the park and they said it was starting to look like a ghost town. No point in towing the trailer because where would we tow it. I am going to go to the hardware store and try to find tie downs maybe it will help. Manager said they didn't want to see me in the park after tomorrow night because it is too dangerous. I agree.

Will post when I can....Say a prayer for us.

[TheWatcher]

82. Please Stay Safe AnneD and get yourself to safety.

Our prayers and thoughts go out to you and everyone in the path of this monster.

[mbperrin]

83. Be careful. I lurk here at the SMW, and I very much enjoy your comments.

Sending positive thoughts from west Texas to the coast!

[ozymandius]

85. Get the hence out of harm's way!

Let us know how and where you are. I'd say likewise to an old colleague of mine who took a job at KUHF if we our communication were still open.

[Hugin]

89. Hope to hear from you again, very soon!

:hi:

Take care, AnneD!

I'll be thinking of you!

:)

[Dr.Phool]

91. Be back safe and sound by the week-end.

We'll all be thinking of you.

:hi:

[Roland99]

94. Be safe!

[TheWatcher]

81. So this weekend should be fun.

Perhaps Bank Of America picks up Lehman, and WFC will pick up WAMU, in a double shotgun wedding.

Or perhaps the FDIC absorbs WAMU, obliterating what's left of whatever funds they have left for absorbing failed entities, thus sending them running into the arms of Stammerin' Hank for another "Throw The Taxpayer Under The Bus Bailout."

One thing is for sure, we'll know by Sunday.

[ozymandius]

86. Here's the end to a nonsensical day. Ponies and moon pies all around.

I saw that the Dow was down by 100 at one point. How in the bloody hell can anyone seriously trade in this environment?

Dow 11,433.71 Up 164.79 (1.46%)
Nasdaq 2,258.22 Up 29.52 (1.32%)
S&P 500 1,249.05 Up 17.01 (1.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.622% Down 0.019
NYSE Volume 6,826,748,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,310,588,000

4:30 pm : Trading has been marked by uncertainty during recent sessions and Wednesday was no exception. The uncertainty prompted the major indices to open sharply lower as jittery traders fretted over financial stocks and a lack of leadership.

Financials were down more than 4% in the early going as participants placed heavy selling pressure on investment banks and brokerages (-4.6%). Investors pushed the group aside amid continued concerns regarding the future of Lehman Brothers (LEH 4.22, -3.03). Shares of LEH were downgraded this morning by a few Wall Street firms. However, word from The Wall Street Journal that Bank of America (BAC 33.06, +0.66) is in talks to buy Lehman prompted a last minute upward push in the sector.

Though the financial sector spent most of the session facing losses, it was able to close 1.7% higher.

Most of the session was marked by a lack of convincing leadership, which led to choppy trading. Still, the stock market turned an early loss of 1.7% into a 1.5% gain. All ten of the economic sectors opened lower, but nine managed to finish with a gain as the late financial rally pulled just about everything higher into the close.

Stocks also seemed to move more independently of oil prices during the session. Crude futures spent virtually the entire session in the red, extending their downturn, slipping more than 1.5% to close below $101 per barrel. Crude has not been below the $100 mark in over five months.

The decline in oil prices helped oil and gas refiners (+8.3%). Refiners are benefiting from wider crack spreads, effectively the difference between prices paid for crude and the prices charged for consumable fuels, as well as tighter supplies as they take their operations offline amid hurricane threats.

Uninspiring economic data gave investors little incentive to move into stocks in the early-going. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 6 declined 6,000 to 445,000. Claims were slightly ahead of the consensus estimate. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose by more than 100,000 to 3.525 million from the prior week, reflecting a softening labor market.

Meanwhile, the July trade deficit widened $62.2 billion from the prior month, surpassing the $58.0 billion deficit that was widely expected. The trade deficit figures received little attention, though the trend in the real (price adjusted) trade deficit continues to suggest they will support third quarter GDP.DJ30 +164.79 NASDAQ +29.52 NQ100 +2.1%% R2K +0.3%% SP400 +0.5%% SP500 +17.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1286/2.31 bln/1539 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/1.45 bln/1762

[Hugin]

93. -136 at one point...

If I were an expert on such things...

I'd say the Markets had experienced a "Refractory Period" (Kinsey, et al. 1948) (Masters, W.H.; Johnson, V.E. 1966) after
their big blow out on Monday then recovered enough over the past two days for an "Afternoon Delight" (SMW, et al. 2008) and were suddenly back at it today.

I'm not an expert. But, I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night! (No John, I'm not a viable VP candidate.)

[Joanne98]

88. Bank of America in talks with Lehman

We've known for most of the day that Lehman Brother has been actively shopping itself in a desperate attempt to avoid catastrophe. Now names of potential buyers are starting to come in. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Bank of America is in talks with Lehman.

Perhaps most interesting is the Journal's reporting on who isn't participating. Up until just a few minutes ago we were hearing rumors that HSBC could put in a bid over night, despite earlier denials from the bank. Now the Journal says no bid is expected from HSBC. Others who aren't "expected to participate" include Goldman Sachs, France's BNP Paribas, Germany's Deutsche Bank, and Spain's Banco Santander. Barclays is a maybe.

While Lehman is looking for buyers, the potential buyers are looking for Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke. Pressure is mounting on the government to become involved, as the Journal story makes clear.

But potential buyers remain wary about plugging holes in Lehman's balance sheet, and are increasingly looking to the U.S. government to help backstop future losses, according to people familiar with the talks.
A number of these buyers would "come out of the woodwork," if the U.S. were to step in, said one person monitoring the process. It remains unclear whether the U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve would take such steps, as was done when the government assisted J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in its Bear Stearns takeover in March.

Any government involvement would likely require an under-market price for shareholders. When the Fed and Treasury helped JP Morgan Chase buy Bear Stearns, the price of the stock was reduced from around $30 a share to $2 a share. A similar haircut for Lehman from recent market prices could result in a take-under priced at less than a dollar.

http://dealbreaker.com/2008/09/bank-of-america-in-preliminary.php

[Joanne98]

90. What happens if Bank of America buys Lehman

My quick thoughts on BAC potentially buying Lehman. I can't see it happening without Ken Lewis getting a deal similar to what JPM Chase got when they took Bear Stearns. What JPM got was the Fed backstop against the toxic waste on the books. Bank of America probably needs at least a year to integrate Countrywide, let alone deal with the amount of litigation the firm "Formerly Know as Countrywide" has coming down the pike. I also don't think that Bank of America has taken the losses that would be commensurate with their gigantic book of residential and commercial mortgage exposure. Not to mention leveraged loans and the oncoming disaster in consumer and corporate credit. They have enough on their plate to keep themselves from falling off the rails. I just don't see why they would take on Lehman's meshugahs (I used my Yiddish phrase-book) without a Fed guarantee.

I guess the big question is, is the U.S. Government really ready to step in and either take over or get vested in Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Lehman Brothers in the same week??!! Eventually somebody has to fail. Bear Stearns was a complete shock, brought on by what was an illegal scheme to create a run on the bank and reap massive rewards from the firms failure. That's not to say that Bear wouldn't have failed a few months later due to a lack of capital. However, the Bear collapse was so sudden that derivative counterparties (that is what this is all about. If Lehman and Bear weren't an integral part of the credit, interest-rate, equity and currency derivative markets they would be allowed to fail in a second) had little if anytime to prepare. Lehman? This has been a slow moving train wreck for nearly six months. I think Ben Bernanke is going to have a real hard time explaining how the system was caught unaware on this one.

http://www.monkeybusinessblog.com/mbb_weblog/2008/09/just-my-thought.html

[Demeter]

97. The Money Gods Must Be Crazy!

I can see that the Weekend Economist isn't going to get any sleep this weekend....

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

98. lol

:rofl: