McCain Closes Gap on Obama In Poll as Conventions Loom

[WriteDown]

Source: WSJ

WASHINGTON -- Sen. John McCain has all but closed the gap with Sen. Barack Obama, underscoring how international crises -- and some well-placed negative ads -- have boosted the prospects of the Republican presidential candidate.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll also points to a big challenge for Sen. Obama as his party gathers in Denver next week for its convention: rallying Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters to his cause. Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama. One in five is supporting Sen. McCain. The Republican has reached out to Clinton supporters by offering steady praise for the former first lady and hinting that he'd be open to a running mate who supports abortion rights.
NEW POLL

Overall, the poll finds the race a statistical dead heat, with 45% favoring Sen. Obama and 42% Sen. McCain. That three-point Obama advantage is down from six points a month ago, a trend found in other national polls as well. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning the Obama lead could range from zero to six points.

The poll has some cautionary notes for Sen. McCain as well. It shows that his supporters are much less enthusiastic than Sen. Obama's, and finds widespread concern among voters about his age.....

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121926582869857905.html...

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It almost makes me believe that Bushler orchestrated the Russian conflict. I don't quite believe it, but the repukes are the luckiest bastards ever.

[robcon]

1. Who cares who's ahead in August?

Obama will get a 10 point boost from the convention. Then the campaign will start.

[WriteDown]

2. True

That is a documented fact. McCain will get a boost too though, although I believe it will be much smaller. I have a feeling McCain and his cronies are going to get very nasty though.

[AwareOne]

3. I believe McCain will win in Nov.

certainly not because he is a better candidate, but the Republicans are so much better at getting their people elected, case in point, GWB re-election in 04. It's almost as if the candidates don't even matter. I heard a Democrat being interviewed on NPR this morning saying he was going to vote for McCain because he had "better foreign policy and was better able to lead". WTF! People don't even follow or care much about politicians so whatever they see on 30 sec ads shapes their vote. The Republican spin machine is omni present and pervasive and will likely prevail again. We are on the brink of an economic implosion that will hit next year so it may not be all bad as the Republicans will take the blame and we will likely have a majority in both houses of congress.

[Mz Pip]

4. That's what I don't get

What about the Republican foreign policy of the last 8 years has been so conforting for the American people that they want more of the same?

We have a trillion dollar deficit, much due to the Republican foreign policies. And people trust McCain because he's supported this?

How stupid are we?

[ryanmuegge]

13. Like I've said, we are going to have to use our congressional majority to manipulate the

Constitution if we ever hope to win an election again by an unstealable margin.

[WriteDown]

14. Manipulate the Constitution?

I don't want EITHER party to start doing this. Scary stuff.

[ryanmuegge]

15. Whatever gets us the win. Republicans have destroyed this country.

[WriteDown]

16. Sorry...

I can't sign on to that mentality. Maybe the next Dem president can just dissolve congress and rule by decree? Then we would be winning forever. See, this is a very dangerous road to go down.

[robcon]

9. I think your description is akin to saying Republicans have magic!

Your "analysis" is just defeatist nonsense. We got Bill Clinton elected easily twice. I think Obama will win by 5+ points.

[Frisbee]

12. It had better be 5+ points...

I am afraid that if Obama wins by less than 3 points, the repukes will steal the election again. The numbers need to be big enough that there can be no doubt. BTW, the 3 points is based on nothing more than my best guess, the repukes can be pretty bold, so who knows what they'll actually try.

[TheWatcher]

21. Using Bush's re-election is a very poor example to use for the point of your post

If you think Bush was re-elected legitimately, you are sadly misinformed.

Republicans are good at stealing elections.

And that is how McCain will win, if he does.

[sourmilk]

5. "margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points"

Statistically then, it is possible that Obama could be riding roughshod over McGaffe by almost TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS.

You better believe that if Luke McSkywalker was leading the polls by three points, the L$M would certainly not be calling it "a statistical dead heat..."

I HATE the L$M. Nothiong but apologists and enablers, the lot of them.

[defendandprotect]

6. I think we have to understand that elections are rigged and so are polls . ..

I'd be amazed if McCain had 30% support ---

[robcon]

10. I think you are delusional.

The election is close, but it won't be after the conventions.

[defendandprotect]

17. It's "delusional" if Americans don't understand Bush has bankrupted the Treasury . . .

or if Americans LOVE the Bush wars ---

or if Americans want to surrender reproductive freedom ---

or if Americans want to "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" ---- ???

Are you in for any of those things?


IMO, it's delusional to believe that we have had honest elections ---

and to not question polls ---

[fudge stripe cookays]

20. Been paying attention much for the last two elections?

These people have RIGGED voting machines. The machines are still vulnerable.

All they have to do is convince the gullible public that there were only a few percentage points difference (even though the truth was way different).

Then the Repubs work their "magic" on the central tabulators, and they convince the public that the American people "just weren't ready for a black president."

Sorry to be so cynical. I busted my ASS for Dean. I refuse to let myself get excited again. I could barely function for a few weeks after the election in 2004.

[maseman]

11. No offense but this thinking will make us lose

The polls are not rigged. They may not all align mainly because they use different questions, different dialing methods, different weighting, different sample sizes, different CATI systems, etc. Elections? Yes there is certainly some question to the validity of some states machines, etc.

But we need to look at the polling close because it is like a barometer. You cannot necessarily predict when the storm will hit or the exact intensity like radar can but a barometer can certainly predict an approaching low front meaning most likely unfavorable weather.

[defendandprotect]

18. "Some questions" . . . . ???

You're saying that there are only "some questions" re elections?

My heavens!!!

First, Gore won the 2000 election, including in Florida --- no matter how
you count it. So . . . what do you think happened?

There are many questions as well about 2004 ---
and though 2006 gave us a "win" it looks like the amount of the majority
was probably tampered with.

Let me also direct your attention to the fact that the large counting computers
came in during the mid-1960's . . . and were used by MSM to report results.

If you're interested in how long we've had computer steals you might be
interested in this story of two journalists who began to investigate questionable
results and changes during the mid-1960's in Florida --- as computers began to
come on line all over America --

http://www.constitution.org/vote/votescam__.htm


On the one hand you make "fear-based" argument against merely questioning poll results
while displaying an alarming trust in both polls and election results!

And re this . . .

But we need to look at the polling close because it is like a barometer. You cannot necessarily predict when the storm will hit or the exact intensity like radar can but a barometer can certainly predict an approaching low front meaning most likely unfavorable weather.

Wow . . . do they have you living in the fear zone . . . !!!

How much MSM are you watching?

[TheWatcher]

22. No, he is living in a false paradigm so he doesn't have to fully face the reality

Of that which you post.

You must understand that in America, facts, logic, reason, reality, that no longer matters.

It is the perception of these things that matters, and far too many Americans want their perception managed or fed to them in such a way that they can feel good without having to deal with the actual reality of things.

The Matrix is no longer a film.

We are living it.

[mzmolly]

7. Which is why we need a VP Clark or a plan B. Stop letting Republicans (who FAILED US on 911)

feign "tough on National Security."

[Politicalboi]

8. These are

Land line surveys. Obama probably has more people who support him with cell phones. And Barr and Nadar are running too and they hurt MaGoo more than Obama. I still don't believe that MaGoo is this close unless they plan on stealing it again.

[AndyTiedye]

19. OF COURSE They Plan on Stealing It Again

How are we going to stop them?

[cobalt1999]

23. A little data point for those worrying

The day the Democratic convention ended in San Francisco in 1984, the Newsweek poll showed Walter Mondale 18 points ahead of President Ronald Reagan.

Way too early to worry about polls.

[bemildred]

24. Polls are pretty much bullshit in the best of cases.

Someone should do a statistical study on the correlation between poll results at different points before the election and the election results. I would bet the correlation is "not much". So then we can ask the MSM why we have to listen to all this fake "horse race" crap for two years before the election?

[Honeycombe8]

25. Dukakis was 17 pts ahead in August. 'Nuff said. nt