Poll points to Liberal landslide (Canada) | National Post

[Ediacara]

Poll points to Liberal landslide
Party is 30 points ahead of Conservatives but pollster finds the lead is likely to shrink

Chris Wattie
National Post

Monday, February 02, 2004

The merger of Canada's two right-wing parties has so far failed to make a dent in the overwhelming popular support for Paul Martin's Liberals, according to a new poll.

The Compas/National Post poll, conducted last week, found 49% of voters support the Liberals, compared with 19% for the new Conservative Party of Canada.

Heading into a leadership convention next month, the Conservatives are barely ahead of the New Democratic Party, which under leader Jack Layton has edged up to 17% support, the poll found.

More at the National Post

[lovedems]

1. Canada. It's what happens when liberal run the country.

Humm, little gun violence, affordable prescription drug, health insurance for everyone...Damn those liberals.

[ozone_man]

11. Why can't we be like them?

One day perhaps.

[David__77]

2. Best of luck to the NDP!

I would like to see them as the official opposition. The right should bite the dust.

[Minstrel Boy]

3. NDP support tends to be concentrated, whereas Conservative support is

spread thin (except for Alberta), so the NDP can win more seats than the Conservatives with a lower percentage popular vote.

Even though the Liberals stand at 49%, the poll shows considerable dissatisfaction with their performance, which suggests their support is potentially soft. And since the likelihood of anything but a Liberal re-election is extremely remote, "social liberals" who have been frozen out by Martin may be inclined to consider a vote for the NDP a safe way of registering disapproval for his moving the government to the right. Perhaps enough for minority rule, which historically has given Canada its most progressive governments.

I think once the election is called and Martin is really forced to perform in the spotlight, particularly a debate, the numbers will quickly move in the NDP's favour, putting us around 20%-25% by election day. Jack Layton will be a much more able campaigner than either Martin or Harper/Stronach/Clement, and the media will not be able to - nor want to - ignore him, as it decided with Alexa McDonough.

On edit: "Across English Canada, Liberals had 51% support, versus 24% for the Conservatives and 20% for the NDP." I hadn't noticed this on first read, and it's a very encouraging result for the NDP. It equals the NDP's historic election high from 1988, more than doubles its popular vote of 2000 and - given the Liberal numbers in Quebec would virtually rout the BQ, and the fact that the NDP's distribution of support is more favourable than the Conservatives - would likely be enough for the NDP to capture official opposition status.

[Minstrel Boy]

4. "The biggest gainers appear to be Mr. Layton's New Democrats,

, who have posted increases in a number of recent opinion polls.

"'The growth is all NDP,'" Mr. Winn said. 'They're almost certainly heading to increase their seats in the next election.'

"By region, the Compas poll shows support as follows: British Columbia, 27% Liberal, 18% Conservative, 17% NDP; Alberta, 16%, 42% and 11% respectively; Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 26%, 17% and 26%; Ontario, 46%, 15% and 13%; Atlantic Canada, 56%, 10% and 24%; and Quebec, 41%, 3% and 6% plus 36% for the Bloc."

[Tommy_Douglas]

5. Go NDP!

Would be nice to see them nab the official opposition, which would help keep the liberals in check, considering Martin's right wing leanings.

[stevedeshazer]

6. Thanks for this info

I learned something from it. A couple of questions:

Why is the conservative base so strong in Alberta?

And, does this more or less guarantee an insurmountable coalition between the Liberals and NDP concerning legislation and policy on the federal level?

And, how does it affect the different provinces?

[Minstrel Boy]

7. Alberta's always been the odd one out.

It has a tradition of right-wing populism unlike any other region of Canada. Povincially it routinely elects Conservatives (and before them, the right-wing Social Credit Party) to massive, East Bloc-like majorities. Why, I don't know. It's been this way since the Depression. Next door, Saskatchewan has a tradition of left-wing populism, and gave birth to the CCF (forerunner of the NDP), and routinely elects New Democratic governments. Alberta's oil and gas industry has undoubtedly contributed. Back in the 1970s, during a Liberal-NDP minority government, Trudeau implemented the National Energy Program, which Albertans thought was an unjust usurpation of its resources for the national good. "Let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark" became a popular phrase.

I don't think the election is guaranteed to be a Liberal/NDP coalition, but what is guaranteed is that the Conservatives will not be forming the government. It will either be a Liberal majority (most likely with these numbers) or a Liberal minority (I'd say it's likely if the Liberals drop another five points by election). I think it's doubtful that the NDP would enter a formal coalition with the Liberals, but would more likely want to ensure their numbers guarantee the most progressive legislation they can squeeze out of the Libs.

[stevedeshazer]

8. That's very interesting

I've spent some time in northern Montana and been to Calgary a couple of times, and my mother and her family come from Minnesota and North Dakota. I can see the same split you describe between Alberta and Saskatchewan. Leftist farm populism versus right. As a kid growing up on a farm (in rural Oregon), I knew families who migrated here from both places and embraced one or the other of these ideas, and I see it still divides the prairie states and provinces today.

Thanks for your response.

[HEyHEY]

9. Go Liberals!

I really can't wait to see the results of the next election....I really can't . THese fucking rejects in the CA will see we don't dig their style O crap up here.

[mzmolly]

10. Oh how I consider a move ....to Canada...

*sigh* More tempted every day...

[ozone_man]

12. Next best thing

is to visit Canada often and I do. :-)