Georgia launches offensive against South Ossetia

[FarCenter]

Source: Deutsche Welle



Heavy fighting has broken out between Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia. Georgia's Reintegration Minister has reportedly told the AFP news agency that Georgian forces have surrounded the Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. The Associated Press is reporting that the city has come under heavy fire. Hours earlier, the two sides agreed to a ceasefire following a week of mounting clashes. They were scheduled to hold Russian mediated talks later on Friday. The United States has expressed great concern over the situation and urged an immediate end to all violence. South Ossetia broke from Georgian control during a war in the early 1990s, the rebel government enjoys support from Moscow.


Read more: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/function/0,2145,12215_cid_354...

[FarCenter]

1. From the Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e29e178-6498-11dd-af61-00007...

[rcsl1998]

99. Look At Initial Reporting Prior To Bush - McSame Spin...

...began to be reported at 'facts'

We're at war with Oceana - We've always been at war with Oceana...

[Aqaba]

2. Heavy fighting in South Ossetia (video at link)

Source: BBC

Georgian forces and South Ossetian separatists have been exchanging heavy fire just hours after agreeing to a ceasefire and Russian-mediated talks.

Russian media reports said Georgia had launched a tank-led attack on the separatist stronghold of Tskhinvali, and airstrikes on rebel positions.

Georgia says it aims to finish "a criminal regime" and restore order.

At least 15 people are reported dead. Moscow called on the world community to work "to avert massive bloodshed".


Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7546639.stm

---

Here's a Google Earth long/lat you can paste in to see the area

41 42' 35.19"N
44 47' 31.08"E

You can literally copy that text and paste into your Google Earth search bar.

Theres some shelling video at the link.

[Adsos Letter]

3. Russia has been pissed at Geogia since the Chechnyan Wars...

add "energy resources" to the mix and this has the potential to be very bad for Georgia.

[AlphaCentauri]

4. Georgian troops, warplanes, pound separatists

Source: Reuters

MEGVREKISI, Georgia, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Georgian troops, backed by warplanes, pounded separatist forces on the outskirts of the South Ossetian capital on Friday hours after launching an assault on the breakaway region following a short-lived truce.

Georgian big guns shelled Tskhinvali, where government and separatists envoys had been due to meet for Russia-mediated peace talks later on Friday, and many houses were ablaze.

Russia, main backer of the separatists who have controlled the region since a war in the early 1990s, accused Georgia of treachery and urged the world community to avert "massive bloodshed."

The crisis fuelled fears of full-blown war in the region, which is emerging as a vital energy transit route and where Russia and the West are vying for influence.


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSL8718...

---

"energy transit"

[Norrin Radd]

5. Yep. Those are the key words. Good catch.

[Adsos Letter]

6. How long until Russian tanks roll into Geogia?

IIRC Georgia has been on Russia's shit list since the two wars in Chechnya...

[woundedkarma]

7. According to msnbc's front page

Russian troops have already started moving in.

If the world isn't careful this could be number 3.

[frankieT]

8. I agree

I got a bad feeling about this one.

[JCMach1]

9. Russians moving in... Air base near Tblisi bombed according to BBC

Major international crisis and guess who we have in charge

[maddezmom]

12. CNN just reported US troops are training Georgian troops in that area

[nomaco-10]

14. They had just left a few days ago. n/t

[maddezmom]

16. thanks, I didn't hear that part...said the Pentagon was looking into

making sure everyone was accounted for and maybe evacuating?

[Ian David]

17. Oh, fuck. You're making me turn-on the TV now. I *was* going to listen to The Stephcast on my iPod.

[maddezmom]

19. CNN: US has counted heads and says that the 130 US military & civilian personnel has been accounted

for, so evacuation maybe down the road.

[dipsydoodle]

74. Training troops

to guard the The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

When you've the time to watch, go here and scroll about 2/3rds down the page: BBC Storyville – The Curse of Oil
Part two - The Pipeline. It's about an hour long from memory. Was broadcast on BBC over here a while back.

http://www.thedossier.ukonline.co.uk/video_cover-ups.ht...

edit to add : part three is also relevant these days.

[JCMach1]

25. Richard Holbrook on BBC said that he had warned about this and Putin

and the Russians want to finish the crisis before their is a new President in the U.S.

[Renew Deal]

45. Oh wondeful

[Strelnikov_]

41. Energy Transit = BTC Pipeline

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BTC_Pipeline

Control of this region by the Putinist's will allow Russia to control transit of energy resources from the Caspian.

Unless Iran is 'pacified', of course.

The last man standing energy war seems to be heating up. Putin just took the next move.

+++++++++

Putin has long been nursing ambitions of using Russia's vast oil and gas supplies as an instrument of power. In the mid '90s, after 15 years in the KGB, Putin went back to school, attending the St. Petersburg Mining Institute. He wrote a dissertation titled "Toward a Russian Transnational Energy Company." The topic: how to use energy resources for grand strategic planning.

“In the early stages of pro-market reforms in Russia the state temporarily lost strategic control over the mineral resources industry. This led to the stagnation and disintegration of the geological sector built over many decades…. However, today the market euphoria of the early years of economic reform is gradually giving room to a more balanced approach that... recognises the need for a regulatory role of the state.”

- Vladimir Putin, “Toward a Russian Transnational Energy Company.”, PhD dissertation, St. Petersburg Mining Institute


”The Rouble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for in Roubles. Our goods are traded on global markets. Why are not they traded in Russia?”

— President Vladimir Putin, Speaking before the full Russian parliament, Cabinet and international reporters, May 2006


”Russia has found the Achilles’ heel of the US colossus. In concert with its oil-producing partners and the rising powerhouse economies of the East, Russia is altering the foundations of the current US-led liberal global oil-market order, insidiously working to undermine its US-centric nature and slanting it toward serving first and foremost the energy-security needs and the geopolitical aspirations of the rising East”

- W. Joseph Stroupe, author, Russian Rubicon: Impending Checkmate of the West, as quoted in the Asia Times, November 22, 2006


From the Russian perspective, the Saudi role and OPEC model have benefited the United States, which can pressure Saudi Arabia into opening the spigot to deal with supply emergencies; the US also pressures other oil producers, such as Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Indonesia, by military methods, diplomacy, and economic sanctions. In the Russian alternative, the US will be far less influential, and have fewer levers, commercial or military, to effect pressure on the energy suppliers. Russian arms and defense-industry partnerships are on offer to relatively weak, intervention-prone energy producers in Africa and Latin America to offset US pressure.

In the OPEC model, the benchmark is Brent crude, priced in US dollars. In the Russian model, the discount and disadvantage between the Brent and Urals benchmarks will be reduced, and pricing will evolve toward a currency basket, including the ruble. In the OPEC model, suppliers hold much of their cash and government securities in US controlled institutions. In the Russian model, cash is held in the form of a currency basket; conversion from cash is sought into non-US assets, particularly in the European market.

In the OPEC model, investment in new energy reserves should be open to, and may be controlled by, US corporations. In the Russian model, strategic reserves should be controlled by national companies, state-controlled champions, or joint ventures in which Russian interests are in the majority. The Russian model also extends to energy-convertible coal, uranium, and other mineral resources. Through negotiations for Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the US, Australia, Canada and other resource-exporting states have sought to gain unlimited access to search and development of Russian minable resources.

The Russian model rejects this, and instead assigns priority and equity control of domestic resources to national resource companies. The model proposes tradeoffs and partnerships in resource exploitation in third countries, especially the developing states. The US-backed OPEC model assigns international priority to the Arab states. The Russian model assigns priority to the Central Asian alliance, including China, India, and Iran; secondarily to Latin America and ultimately Africa.”

- John Helmer, “Russian energy model challenges OPEC,” Asia Times, July 18, 2006,


In the end, the choice between these two alternatives — Grab the Oil or Energy Reconfiguration — this decision is much bigger than oil alone. It is a choice about the fundamental ethos and, in fact, the very nature of the country. Most immediately, it is about democracy versus empire. In economic terms, it is about prosperity or poverty. In engineering terms, it is a matter of efficiency over waste. In moral terms this is the choice of sufficiency or gluttony. From the standpoint of the environment, it is a preference for stewardship over continued predation. In the ways the US deals with other countries it is the choice of co-operation versus dominance. And in spiritual terms, it is the choice of hope, freedom and purpose over fear, dependency and despair. In this sense, this is truly the decision that will define the future of America and perhaps the world.

- Robert Freeman, “Will the End of Oil Mean the End of America?,” 2004

[Strelnikov_]

43. Yep. BTC is 'down' 'Fire' on Wednesday.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3751397

[i]BP PLC (BP) has confirmed to an analyst that at least
500,000 barrels a day of production from its Azeri fields has
been cut after a Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, or BTC, pipeline
shut-down, the analyst said Friday. "I have spoken with
BP and after some discussion they agree that a figure of at
least half a million barrels per day looks a realistic number
for lost production," said Peter Hutton, an analyst at
broker NBC in a research note.
Even after the effect of production-sharing-agreements, the
loss for BP is likely to be 150,000 to 200,000 barrels a day
on a net share basis, Hutton added.

A BP spokesman reiterated that the company is reducing output
from the Azerbaijani fields but is "not quantifying"
the cuts. It added the company is seeking to maximize the use
of alternative routes for the remaining production.

BP is both the operator of the BTC pipeline - where a fire
started Wednesday - and of the Azerbaijani fields. It manages
and has a 34.1% interest in the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli, or ACG,
field and 25.5% in the Shah Deniz field. It uses BTC for oil
extracted from ACG and condensates from Shah Deniz.
In the note, Hutton said the alternative pipeline routes used
by BP for the Azerbaijani crude can transport no more than
200,000 barrels a day.
BP has also suggested it could use Georgian railcars. But
Hutton said the scenario, for a typical amount of 50,000
barrels per day, would be "impractical at the best of
times and probably even more so during the present tensions
in Georgia."

Friday, a Russian military convoy reportedly entered the
breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia Friday and Russian
planes reportedly attacked a Georgia Base near the capital
Tbilisi.[/i]

[maddezmom]

10. Putin Says `War Has Started,' Georgia Claims Invasion (Update1)

Putin Says `War Has Started,' Georgia Claims Invasion (Update1)

By Henry Meyer and Ryan Chilcote

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said ``war has started'' in the breakaway region of South Ossetia while Georgia accused Russia of ``a well-planned invasion'' and appealed to world leaders for help.

Russian ``volunteers'' are pouring over the border to help defend South Ossetia from Georgian forces, Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush in Beijing today, according to Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili accused Russia of ``full-blown military aggression'' after civilians died in aerial bombings and wide-spread fighting in and around the disputed region. The country of 4.6 million people is fighting ``to secure its borders,'' Saakashvili told Bloomberg Television.

The U.S., European Union and NATO all called on both sides to end hostilities. The ruble dropped the most against the dollar in 8 1/2 years and Russian stocks tumbled today on concern the conflict will worsen.

more:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ase...

[maddezmom]

11. Russia Threatens Retaliation After Georgia Says It Fired on Planes

By ANNE BARNARD and ANDREW KRAMER
Published: August 8, 2008
MOSCOW — The sharpest fighting since the early 1990s in the disputed Caucasian enclave of South Ossetia threatened to draw Russia and the American-backed former Soviet republic of Georgia into direct military conflict on Friday.

Soldiers from South Ossetia, a breakaway Georgia enclave, on Thursday near Tskhinvali, where heavy fire was reported.
Georgian officials said their military had fired on Russian planes and that their aircraft had bombed a convoy of Russian tanks that moved into South Ossetia, the pro-Russian enclave that has enjoyed de facto autonomy from Georgia since 2004. A local Russian official said the convoy was humanitarian.

As Georgian forces besieged Tskhinvali, the capital of the enclave, President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia promised to "punish" those responsible for what he called "a deep violation of international law" by Georgia that he said had led to the deaths of Russian citizens and Russian peacekeepers stationed in Tskhinvali.

"I am obligated to defend the lives and dignity of Russian citizens, wherever they are located," he said in an address carried on Russian state television. "We will not allow the unpunished killing of our fellow citizens. Those who are guilty will suffer the punishment they deserve."

Speaking in Beijing, where he traveled to attend the opening of the Olympic Games, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said Georgia’s actions "will certainly lead to retaliatory actions.”

more:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/09/world/europe/09georgi...

[sudopod]

54. Been there done that

"I am obligated to defend the lives and dignity of German citizens, wherever they are located,"

[martymar64]

95. IIRC, that is written into the Russian Constitution

Due to the forced resettlements carried out in the Soviet Union by Stalin (real name: Iosef Dzugashvili, a Georgian) Russians comprise a large minority in the former Soviet Republics. Russia is committed to protecting them as well as those within Russia.
I have to side with Russia on this action. NATO has been aggressively pushing towards Russia's borders and provoking them by putting "defensive" missile positions and radar in the Czech Rep and Poland. They have also armed and trained Georgia for the purpose of what we're seeing now. Saakasvili was betting on American troops jumping in on his side in his fight to reassert domination of South Ossetia. He guessed wrong. America will not risk open war against Russian forces, that could too easily spiral into Armageddon. The lessons learned in the Cold War about MAD are still relevant. I've heard comparisons of this conflict to the Falklands War. There the British Empire was shrinking, but Maggie Thatcher drew the line at the Falklands and said that they are through shrinking. I can see this as a similar statement by Putin.
On another note, Russia is a little sensitive about military forces pushing towards its borders. After all, Western Europe has invaded Russia twice in the last two centuries (Napoleon and Hitler). Russia suffered horribly in WW2 and is determined not to let that happen again.

[AngryOldDem]

13. What should the U.S.'s response be?

CNN just aired a lengthy interview with the Georgian president and he basically said we should put our money where our mouth is when it comes to defending democracy.

And I agree with others here that this has the potential of being the 2008 equivalent of 1914 Sarajevo.

[Ian David]

15. U.S. Response?

"I'm looking forward to lunch."

[Blue_Tires]

55. ironically, unlike 9-11, bush inaction will be best for everyone

does anyone really want bush/condi/dick/whoever within 500 miles of that mess?

[Ian David]

88. If they stop serving food at the crisis meetings, Bush will stop attending. n/t

[dipsydoodle]

20. Defending democracy ?

I assume that is what is generally known as a joke with respect to Georgia. It's a "democracy" which suits the west solely because of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

See here for example :

International election observers concluded that, while the January results were generally consistent with democratic standards, cases of intimidation of opposition candidates, procedural shortcomings in election counting, and an unwarranted boost to the incumbent from his activities as head of state skewed the outcome. Saakashvili agreed with their recommendations to take measures to improve electoral procedures before legislative elections.
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Article.aspx?id=2168

[Ian David]

21. Should I go fill my gastank now? n/t

[AngryOldDem]

24. Well, that kind of answers my question.

If there's oil involved...

[AlphaCentauri]

49. if there is US military involved, YES

[harun]

72. Defending democracy = Defending pipelines (n/t)

[Dead_Parrot]

23. Based on past performance...

...It will be:

A) Find Ossetia on a map;
B) Find the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline on a map;
C) Make a few phone calls, wait for the pipeline to blow up, and blame the Russians;
D) Get your war on, at least by proxy.

Oil price goes up, military spending goes up, everyone is happy.

Well, almost everyone.

[CrazyDude]

47. Nothing ... Or we can just bomb the shit out of Russia, Georgia, and while we're at it Alabama

We are not the world's police. We thought we were when we went into Iraq, and look at what has happened.

[Igel]

90. The serious answer.

This is to defend Russian citizens, on the one hand; and to support Ossetian independence activists, in the other.

The contingent silently ignored in most Putinesque verbiage is "to support Ossetians who want to join Russia".

A fourth claim, related to the first and third, is that the casualties and bombed apt. buildings are part of Russia's "humanitarian" mission--just as Groznyj was properly "humanized" by being gutted like a deer. In the interethnic fighting that happened before lots of ethnic Georgians fled or were expelled from the area; they should be compensated.

The first claim, to defend Russians, applies to Russians in Estonia, Kazakhstan, etc., etc., and the need is to show that the Russians in Ossetia are worse off than those elsewhere. Instead, as with elsewhere, they're simply grounds for provocation--if not, the UN should ask when Russia will set up peacekeepers in Talinn, Alma Aty, and Tbilisi. Or Los Angeles.

The second is to say we agree wholeheartedly, and will sponsor a UN Sec Council resolution at once--which Russia will support, if it has any honor and claim on the truth--to arrange negotiations for *all* of Ossetia to obtain its independence. As well as for Chechnya. Carving up a country's territory by ethnicity in the name of principle doesn't stop at Putin's borders.

If the claim is that they're supporting the not-quite indigenous Ossetians who favor joining with Russia, then they can be explicit about it. It also means Russia is not neutral enough to lead discussions, or serve as peacekeepers. Biased and partisan, with a dog in the fight, they should withdraw fully and stay out under threat of UN sanctions. (Silly, actually, since the UN can't sanction a Sec-Council member, and we all know it. But the point should be made, with the notice that it shames all Russians to be hypocritical and lying.)

The fourth should be publicized widely: 12 Russian soldiers, a few hundred Georgian civilians consitutes Putin's "humanity". In this, he's a Hitleresque figure, who also believed in outsized retribution for personal slights. (Using Stalin is a mistake, since many of Putin's supporters would consider the allusion to be a compliment.)

Nationalism and national honor is a big deal here. It's a tool used by Russia United to firm up support and xenophobia. It can be used also as a tool, for those not too wussy to use it.

[nomaco-10]

18. Russians in Georgia, Chinese Islamists threatening....

violence at the Olympics. Afghanistan going to hell in a hand basket, Iran eager to buddy up with a world power, Turkey and the Kurds despise each other. Israel heading for a major likud victory in the next election and everybody wants the inside track to mideast oil.

It's like a bubbling cauldron ready to boil over.

[AlphaCentauri]

50. religion working for the oil companies

[Nevernose]

22. Conveniently timed for the start of the Olympics

It's like a magician's sleight of hand. People all over the world are either in Beijing or watching it, including many (most?) of the European leaders who could intervene in some fashion, when early intervention is the key to a successful peace.

[dipsydoodle]

26. Russian tanks enter South Ossetia

Source: BBC News

Russian tanks are moving towards the capital of Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia which has been under heavy bombardment from Georgian forces.

Georgian troops are currently observing a three-hour ceasefire to let civilians leave the besieged capital, Tskhinvali.

Georgia is reported to have said any involvement of Russian forces in the conflict will result in a state of war between the two countries.

Reports from Georgia claim Russian jets have attacked an airport near Tblisi.


Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

[Deny and Shred]

27. Russian response to Kosovo?

[blue52power]

56. Russian response to Kosovo? Yes

Imo the Russians who have wanted to do this for awhile, received some cover with Kosovo being granted independence.

[tekisui]

28. Georgia: Russian Jets Bomb Air Base by Tbilisi

Source: AGI News

(AGI) - Tbilisi, 8th August - The escalation of aggression between Russia, Georgia and Ossetia has reached the outskirts of Tbilisi. A number of Russian jets have bombed Vaziani Air Base, 25 kilometres from the Georgian capital. The news has come from Kakha Lamaia, an official of Georgia's security forces. "There were no casualties but several buildings were destroyed" Lamaia commented, adding that Russia has in fact "declared war on us".

Read more: http://www.agi.it/world/news/200808081452-cro-ren0053-a...

---

Tbilisi is the capital and largest city in Georgia, far outside the Ossetia region where the fighting began.

[JCMach1]

29. Looks like Russia is launching a full-scale invasion to topple the government

[maddezmom]

30. Russia's Lavrov: S.Ossetia "ethnic cleansing" reports

Russia's Lavrov: S.Ossetia "ethnic cleansing" reports 08 Aug 2008 13:13:24 GMT
Source: Reuters
~snip~

"We are receiving reports that a policy of ethnic cleansing was being conducted in villages in South Ossetia, the number of refugees is climbing, the panic is growing, people are trying to save their lives," he said during televised remarks in Moscow from Russia's Foreign Ministry. (Writing by Conor Sweeney)

more:http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L8722568.htm

[maddezmom]

32. Georgia: Russia bombing Georgian villages

Georgia: Russia bombing Georgian villages
08-08-2008

A spokesperson for the Georgian government says that Georgian forces have downed two Russian fighter planes that were attacking Georgian territory. An earlier claim from Tblisi that a plane was shot down has meanwhile been denied by the Russian Defence Ministry in Moscow.

Heavy fighting between Georgia and its breakaway province of South Ossetia has left at least 15 people dead. Even though both sides agreed a ceasefire on Wednesday, they are now accusing each other of violating it.



Residential area in Ossetia apparently hit by shellfire
(NOS images)
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili says that Russia, which supports South Ossetia in its bid for independence, has taken an active role in the fighting and that Russian planes have bombed two villages in his country. Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says his country has been forced to respond to Georgian military actions in South Ossetia.

Although the United Nations Security Council has held an emergency debate on the situation, it was unable to reach an agreement on a call for the two sides to stop fighting.

more:http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/region/eu...

[The Stranger]

31. Sad, isn't it, how now when the U.S. issues a statement calling for restraint, it is laughable?

[tekisui]

33. US wouldn't allow that language to be put in to the UN

response, though.

[thewiseguy]

39. When Russia is involved we cant do much more I suppose

[The Stranger]

46. How can the U.S. criticize Russia for being imperialist, when it has them beaten in spades.

Hypocrisy is the tribute vice pays to virtue.

[AlphaCentauri]

52. Georgia was pulling out its troops from Iraq

Georgia has 2,000 troops stationed in Iraq.

Georgia is a member of the "freedom coalition"

[Odin2005]

34. F**king Russians.

They need to quit this imperialistic f*cking around with the internal affairs of Georgia. Hey Russians, the Soviet empire crumbled in 1991, GET OVER IT! Georgia is an independent country, not a Russian vassal.

[tama]

78. What about national sovereignity?

Georgia attacks against nation of independent Ossetia, recognized by Russia and few others, should Ossetia be left unaided at mercy of imperialist Georgia, just like independent nation of Kosovo was (not) left at mercy of imperialist Serbia?

What, exactly, is the difference between Ossetia and Kosovo? Fuck Russia and Hooray NATO-US?

[Odin2005]

89. The Ossetian sepratists are Russian patsies, THAT'S the difference. n/t.

[martymar64]

96. So that justifies genocide against Ossetians?

Georgians are taking the role of the Serbs in this one, engaging in ethnic cleansing throughout South Ossetia. There are already reports of Georgian Special Forces throwing grenades in the basements of houses, specifically with the purpose of killing women and children hiding there. Do you support killing women and children too?

[maddezmom]

35. Reuters blog: Was South Ossetia’s fate sealed in Kosovo?

Was South Ossetia’s fate sealed in Kosovo?
Post a commentPosted by: Giles Elgood

~snip~

When the Serbian province seceded from Belgrade in February, South Ossetia was quick to reassert its own claim to international recognition.

As a spokeswoman for separatist leader Eduard Kokoity told Reuters at the time: “The Kosovo precedent has driven us to more actively seek our rights.”

Those remarks will not have gone unheard in Tblisi and could well have added some urgency to Georgia’s desire to impose its rule over breakaway South Ossetia.

With widespread Western backing, Kosovo was able to achieve a fairly clean break with its former ruler, despite Russian objections.

Now Moscow is backing the separatists and it’s far from clear how things will play out this time.

more: http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/08/08/was-south-os... /

[DemoTex]

36. Russia otherwise a bit distracted now? Don't tell Cheney.

He's spring-loaded to launch on Iran. What better time?

[thewiseguy]

37. Russia invades Georgia?

[WriteDown]

38. Looks like Putin and his right hand man....

are making another move trying to bring back the good old days of the old USSR. My prayers are with the people of Georgia.

[martymar64]

97. Georgia IS the aggressor in this one

They started shelling Tskhinvali, and moved Special Forces in to murder civilians, especially women and children. Russian forces are stepping in to prevent ethnic cleansing.

[Doctor Cynic]

40. In AD 2008, war was beginning.

[htuttle]

75. What Happen?

[sudopod]

94. Main screen turn on! nt

[maddezmom]

42. Georgia-Ossetia conflict on brink of full war: OSCE

VIENNA (Reuters) - The head of Europe's main security and human rights group warned on Friday the Georgia-Ossetia region was on the brink of full-scale war and he called for a halt to all fighting.

Tensions over Georgia's rebel territory of South Ossetia exploded earlier on Friday when Georgia tried to assert control over the region with tanks and rockets, and Russia sent in forces to repel that assault.

"The intense fighting in the South Ossetian conflict zone risks escalation into a full-fledged war," said Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb of Finland, current chairman of the 56-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

"War would have a devastating impact for the entire region.

"I urge the Georgians, South Ossetians and Russians to cease fire, end military action and stop further escalation," Stubb said in a statement. "We need to pull back from the brink of a full-fledged war."

more:http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Russia/idUSL81605902...

[maddezmom]

44. ICRC seeks access in S.Ossetia as violence grows

ICRC seeks access in S.Ossetia as violence grows 08 Aug 2008 13:58:47 GMT
By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The International Committee of the Red Cross on Friday urged warring parties in Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia province to grant aid agencies access to civilians and evacuate those wounded in the escalating violence.

"The humanitarian situation in the conflict zone has worsened dramatically," said Dominique Liengme, head of the ICRC's delegation for Georgia.

"Ambulances are finding it hard to reach injured people and frightened residents are hiding in their basements, without electricity, water, communications or access to services," she said.

Georgia tried to assert control over the rebel territory with tanks and rockets, and Russia sent forces to repel the assault where it backs separatists which have controlled the region since a war in the early 1990s.

more:http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L811915.htm

[nomaco-10]

48. This could be over in hours or days OR....

it could be the start of World War III.

The world is in a very precarious state.

What's even scarier is who is at the helm of this country.

gods help us all.

[The Stranger]

51. The reason why the world is in a precarious state is because of who is at the helm of the U.S.

The U.S. has forfeited its role, its reputation, its credibility, everything.

That is why the world is in a precarious state.

[nomaco-10]

53. I completely agree, but China, Russia and Israel

have to shoulder much of the blame as well.

[LeftishBrit]

79. Bush doesn't help matters; but he's not responsible for EVERYTHING bad in the world.

There were messes in the world long before Bush took command. He can be blamed for what's happening in Iraq, but not really for Georgia IMO.

[Faygo Kid]

57. Russian troops enter South Ossetia after Georgia offensive

Source: AFP

MEGVREKISI, Georgia (AFP) — A Russian army convoy entered South Ossetia on Friday and Russian planes attacked a Georgian military base, reports said, after Georgian forces pounded the capital of the breakaway province and warned of "war" if Russia intervened.

Amid spiralling tensions, Moscow threatened retaliation after Russian forces in the beleaguered city of Tskhinvali were reported killed in a night-time Georgian artillery and air barrage.

Dozens of Russian tanks and military vehicles headed for the four-kilometre (2.5 mile) Roki tunnel, which leads into South Ossetia , an AFP reporter at the frontier said.

Russia's three main news agencies said a convoy had crossed into South Ossetia. . . .



Read more: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jGKb8-JI33G_pN5LerJ...

---

We have a war brewing here, my friends.

Damn.

[Jackpine Radical]

58. The situation is rapidly deteriorating. Read that last paragraph.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm

Amid fierce fighting, Georgia has been trying to regain control of the breakaway province, which has had de facto independence since the 1990s.

Georgia is reported to have said any involvement of Russian forces in the conflict will result in a state of war.

Russia's president promised to defend Russian citizens in South Ossetia.

Moscow's defence ministry said more than 10 of its peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia had been killed and 30 wounded in the Georgian offensive. At least 15 civilians are also reported dead.

[Faygo Kid]

59. Yes, this is very serious stuff, and deserves our notice.

Thanks for reading it. This is just slightly more important than McCain's Britney Spears ad.

Not that it will get as much air time, mind you.

[Jackpine Radical]

62. You cited the AFP story; I picked up the Beeb.

I was on my way here to post it when I saw yours.

[billyoc]

60. Hope everything works out for them.

[fryguy]

61. I used to travel to Tbilisi for work often

Georgia is a lovely country and is/was making real progress in correcting many of the ills associated with republics of the former Soviet Union. My thoughts and prayers are with my former colleagues and friends still living there during this tumultuous time.

[Faygo Kid]

63. My barber is from Georgia. I will see her on Saturday.

I bet she will have more than a few comments.

[Finite]

64. And so it continues..

The Russian plant FSB agents in South Ossetia, provoke the Georgians into a military response, and then enter into the conflict claiming that their constitution requires them to protect Russian nationals.

They did the same thing in Chechnya. It's pretty transparent. And they're doing this in order to:

a. Stop Western expansion into ex-soviet states, push them around a bit, show them who's boss
b. Gain some measure of control over the oil pipeline going through Georgia, which threatens their stranglehold on energy resources in the region

It's militaristic posturing and scheming of the worst kind, makes Cheney look like an amateur.

[chatnoir]

70. Agents provocateurs

From residential bldgs in Tshinvali, they began firing on these Georgian villages. Of course if/when the Georgians respond, they begin screaming "the Georgians are shooting at civilian buildings!".

Russia has been planning this for awhile. Where would that 59th tank division came from all of a sudden? They began "training" 2 months ago. Everyone knew it was just a reason to concentrate forces before some provocation.

South Ossetia is also where a lot of their money laundering is done.

[The Liberal Thinker]

65. I wonder how many idiots are going to think the Russians are attacking the State of Georgia.

"Batten down the hatches! Grab the cows and the children! The Communists are finally here, Edna!"

[Finite]

67. hahaha

A kind of War of the Worlds moment..

[chatnoir]

66. Georgia 'under attack' as Russian tanks roll in

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia's president said Friday that his country is under attack by Russian tanks and warplanes, and he accused Russia of targeting civilians as tensions over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia appeared to boil over into full-blown conflict.

"All day today, they've been bombing Georgia from numerous warplanes and specifically targeting (the) civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among (the) civilian population all around the country," President Mikhail Saakashvili told CNN in an exclusive interview.

"This is the worst nightmare one can encounter," he said.

Asked whether Georgia and Russia were now at war, he said, "My country is in self-defense against Russian aggression. Russian troops invaded Georgia."


More: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.osse...

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Uh-oh.

[bushmeister0]

68. US "trainers" not involved . . . yet.

AFP:

"US military trainers based in Georgia are not involved in the hostilities between Russian and Georgian forces in breakaway South Ossetia, US military officials said Friday. 'They are not involved in any way in this conflict between the Russian military and the Georgian military,' said Lieutenant Colonel John Dorrian, a spokesman for the US European Command. . . Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said there were no plans to redeploy the estimated 130 US troops and civilian contractors, who he said were stationed in the area around Tblisi."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080808/pl_afp/usmilitaryg...

Let us hope no errant Russian dumb bomb accidentaly kills any American soldiers. That would really stir up the pot. I'd love to be a fly on the wall when W. hooks up with Poot Poot in Beijing,

Serioulsy. though, we all know what the Russians did to Chechnya, espeically Grozni. They're not very subtle. They've been wanted to deal with Saakashvili for a long tie now.

Doing this now while everyone is out of town and focused on China is very Hitlerian. He used to like to spring his little surpises on everyone on Sundays.

I guess this sort of thing is also what the Poles and Czechs can expect is they go along with W.'s pie in the sky missile defense system. As the Russian foreign ministry warned the Czechs when Condi got them to sign on the dotted line last month:

"We will be forced to react not with diplomatic, but with military-technical methods."

The Georgians are gettign a practical demostration of what that means right now. World take note!

[Javaman]

69. Our of wars like this, bigger things had followed in the past. nt

[formercia]

71. The Georgians are Junior's buddies.

The flag says it all...



Making trouble as a distraction for troubles at home...

[Adsos Letter]

73. Russia has also had a long-standing beef with Georgia....

over accusations that Georgia was allowing Chechen rebels to use the Pankisi Gorge (a direct route from Georgia into Chechnya) to resupply and regroup in their wars against Russian occupation.

[ohio2007]

76. Georgia still sitting on Soviet nukes?

Looks like Russian supplied arms will be used against Russian tanks ,troops and aircraft.

[Adsos Letter]

77. Thorough knowledge of Russian tactics and training as well...

as in the case during the Chechen Wars (especially the first one) most of those within the Georgian military old enough to remember having been a part of the old Soviet Union will also be veterans of compulsory Soviet military service. Granted, it's 20 years on, but it will certainly apply to the senior leadership. The first president of Chechnya had been a General in the Soviet Air Force.
Russia had also left large stockpiles of weapons in Chechnya when they withdrew prior to the first war. The Chechens used them with skill against the Russians during the first conflict; not so much during the second as it was primarily fought as a guerilla campaign. I'm certain the Russians left no nukes in Chechnya, as the Chechen rebels would have used them against Russia by now, in some form, if at all possible. (Or, if they did, maybe the Chechen rebels sold a couple to someone else? )

Whether Russia left any nukes in Georgia: I don't know, but it seems unlikely.

Weight of numbers, material, and terrain influenced the outcome in Chechnya, but it devastated the country during the process.

Georgia could face the same process.

[ohio2007]

81. A fast read here

snip
The most important reaction will not be in the United States or Western Europe. It is the reaction in the former Soviet states that matters most right now. That is the real audience for this. Watch the reaction of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Balts. How will Russia’s moves affect them psychologically?

The Russians hold a trump card with the Americans: Iran. They can flood Iran with weapons at will. The main U.S. counter is in Ukraine and Central Asia, but is not nearly as painful.

Tactically, there is only one issue: Will the Russians attack Georgia on the ground? If they are going to, the Russians have likely made that decision days ago.

Focus on whether Russia invades Georgia proper. Then watch the former Soviet states. The United States and Germany are of secondary interest at this point.



http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/intelligence_guidance_...

[Adsos Letter]

82. I agree...

Russia's diplomatic and military support for Iran during our ongoing attempts to justify a military strike against them effectively negates any possibiltiy that we will openly support Georgia against Russia, exactly due to the reason stated in your excerpt.

Do you think the Russians might be looking at the potential for a "civil war" as it were, between her and an alliance of former Soviet republics?

THAT would really set the region on fire...

[tama]

83. Hmm

Depends on your defenition of Georgia proper. Russian ground forces allready engaging Georgian troops trying to invade South-Ossetia, wich Shakasvili and US claims is part of Georgia Proper.

Kazakstan allready announcing on the Russian side of the conflict.

Meanwhile, Europe totally dependent on Russian oil and gas...

US? Who cares about what they say?

[Igel]

93. Stratfor underestimates Russian insecurity.

"If they are going to, the Russians have likely made that decision days ago."

No, it's unlikely that they made the decision. They'd have decided to launch their quasi-invasion only after they had cover; they'd launch a ground war only after learning that they'd have no serious fall-out. "Serious" is a bit harder to achieve these days, but still the appropriate word. ("Nasty words" would have been "serious" in the '90s; now it implies some level of logistic or material support, financial support at a minimum.)

They have historically only undertaken things and had massive problems--Berlin airlift, Cuban missile crisis, Afghanistan--only when they misunderstood the West's intention to act. In the first, they thought Western post-war anti-war yearnings would prevent any attempt to break the blockade, and when most of the world decided to bail they felt ok; then the US and Germany acted, and thwarted them (as the world stood as one, mostly not on the US's side). Then there was Kennedy's great meeting after which Khrushchev knew he was wet behind the ears and could be pushed around--so Nikita pushed, and Kennedy reaped the fruits of his inexperience, as he feared. Afghanistan nobody cared about, the USSR thought, until it learned otherwise. They were surprised when the West suddenly started paying attention to dissidents in the '70s, and immediately stopped sending literati to the GULags.

They assumed non-interference in Poland in '56, Hungary in '58, Czechoslovakia in '67, but were right.

And it's one reason for Russia to oppose NATO expansion and involvement in former vassel states. Such involvement makes interference, should Russia take action against those states, all the more likely.

[martymar64]

98. No, Georgia has no nukes, the Russians collected them all

[Igel]

91. It's reciprocal.

To some extent the Pankisi Gorge was ungoverned after the fall of the USSR. However, while Georgia was accused of helping the Chechens, Russia was accused of helping the S. Ossetians.

The grudge goes back further, to when the Ossetians were pro-Soviet because they were anti-Georgian, and helped pacify Georgia when it was declared a Soviet republic.

And, slightly further back, Georgians must still remember that a small coterie of Bol'sheviks, in cahoots with Moscow, declared a coup and declared that they were the licit government, seizing no actual power, but declaring the desire to join the USSR. When the then-recognized Georgian government took action, the USSR invaded to defend the government that only they recognized.

Nobody cared. It was the early 1920s, people were tired of war and the Progressives had the upper hand in the US.

Nor do the Georgians forget that they were conquered by Russia and formed part of the empire. Putin is hegemonic over the Warsaw Pact countries, but intensely so over former parts of the Empire. Almost Chinese-like in his attitude.

[ohio2007]

80. The great oil bubble has burst ( well...until this little Tiff in Georgia ? )

Bad news from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - an installation that may not normally draw much of your attention, but which is a throbbing artery of global energy supply, carrying vital oil supplies from Central Asia towards a tanker terminal on the Turkish coast. On some remote, sun-baked plain of Anatolia, an explosion sparked a fire earlier this week, temporarily cutting the flow through the pipeline.

News: Supply gap could mean oil hits $200 a barrel
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Government caused the credit crisis
But guess what? Here's the good news: the oil price did not zoom upwards in response, not a blip, barely a flicker. Actually the price of a barrel of crude has been falling: from a peak of $145 in early July, it came down to $117 and was trading yesterday at $120. That's almost a 20 per cent drop in little more than three weeks

If the trend continues into September at anything like the same rate of descent, most of the inflationary spike of the past 12 months will miraculously have been sliced away. This is a dramatic reversal, and it is worth trying to work out why it is happening and what it means.

Just possibly, it means that what investors refer to in shorthand as the great "oil up" story has finally revealed itself not as the fundamental reflection of scarce supply that its adherents liked to claim, but as a simple, speculative bubble that was always going to burst.

snip

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opin...

[Dead_Parrot]

84. Armed Cossacks pour in to fight Georgians

Source: Guardian, UK

Hundreds, possibly thousands, of volunteer fighters from Russia were mobilising to enter the war in Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia last night.

Units of armed Cossacks from across the North Caucasus region which borders Georgia were poised to join the battle for the separatists' capital, Tskhinvali.

In North Ossetia, the region of Russia which shares cultural links and a border with South Ossetia, lists of men willing to fight against Georgian forces were drawn up. Vitaly Khubayev, 35, from the capital, Vladikavkaz, told the Guardian: "There are already two busloads of fighters leaving for Tskhinvali every day. They give you a uniform on the way and you get issued with weapons once you arrive. If I didn't have three children I'd have gone."

The two Ossetias are historically inseparable and residents of the northern republic were furious yesterday at what they described as the "Georgian fascist attack" on their neighbours.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/09/russia.geor...

[superconnected]

85. Somehow I expected to see pictures of men on horses.

[Strelnikov_]

86. "If I didn't have three children I'd have gone"

I didn't know there were Freepers in Ossetia.

[bemildred]

87. Freepers are everytwhere.

Freeper is the normal human state, near as I can tell.

[Codeine]

92. I'm afraid you're right.

Common human decency is a myth.