Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%

[DeepModem Mom]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 29-31, John McCain and Barack Obama are now tied at 44% in the preferences of national registered voters.

This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today's result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided.

The contrast between Obama's recent advantage over McCain (ranging from six to nine points) and today's result is particularly notable because this is McCain's strongest showing in over a month. The last time Gallup found the race exactly tied was in late June. By contrast, in the weeks just prior to Obama's overseas trip, he had led the race by an average of four points....

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tie...

[Teaser]

1. McCain had a big polling day the other day. It'll roll off in two more days

.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Do you know what caused that big polling day? Was it one of the ads...

do you think, or just a mystery?

[Teaser]

4. nothing causes big polling days

There is no evidence of any correlation between Gallup and Rasmussen on a day-to-day basis. In other words, there is no effect being measured with changes in either poll individually. Large bumps are almost entirely probabilistic in nature. There is a finite chance of McCain getting a larger sample than Obama on any given day. But there is a much greater chance that Obama will get the largest sample that day. But look who is ahead on most days, and that reflects the real situation.

[DeepModem Mom]

5. I see. Thanks, Teaser! nt

[sofa king]

12. It was sleight of hand on the part of Gallup.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/30/111024/383/...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/29/gallups-likely...

Of course, Gallup may be onto something and they may already be factoring out all people of color as "likely voters," as their votes are damned near just as likely to be stolen or uncounted. But that's another story, isn't it?

[New Dawn]

57. The corporate media will make sure that McCain stays strong in the polls

They love McCain.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Note how Barack has tailed off but voters still haven't really flocked to McCain

Still, I'm not keen on the trend.

[DangerDave921]

7. Wait till convention

He should get a big bounce there. But polls this early are really iffy. Dukakis led by 17 or something at this point and still lost. So who can say?

Personally, I'd rather see fewer polls and more investigative journalism. or how about zero polls?

[PATRICK]

48. Like the HRC Obama gridlock of sorts

Barring any attempt by Obama to somehow get through the MSM resistance to put this one away(extremely chancey and difficult) we will continue to see McCain rotting in there stubbornly all the way. If Obama was the incumbent, MCCain would be faring far worse than Dole. The chances of Obama finally breaking through to a crushing victory exist still and have not peaked yet, McCain is close to his tepid, flaccid peak, on MSM life supports in the hope of rescue by massive fraud. That reality has not changed.

[scarface2004]

6. next week it s mkane in a landslide!!!

gallup sux...that is so unbelievable! the whole country is on the verge of a depression era meltdown and mkane is tied!!! unfucking believable.

[OneBlueSky]

8. are polls like this really an accurate reflection of public sentiment . . .

or are they simply a public relations strategy to lay the groundwork for a McCain win -- regardless of how Americans actually vote? . . .

inquiring minds want to know . . .

[EnviroBat]

10. It's another set-up.

they are planning, and paying off anyone they can to get this thing within the "stealing" range.

Fuck Gallup

[zeemike]

52. I am with you on that

This is all part of the strategy to convince us that we had a fair election when Mc Lame wins in november.
And is seems to work well because even the progressives are falling for it.
It should be obvious to all as it is to me that we are being duped into believing that the majority of Americans are just too stupid to vote for a change.

[BonnieJW]

9. I cannot believe these polls are true.

Yesterday, there was a CNN poll that put Obama at 51 and McGramps at 42.

[Politicalboi]

47. And even 51 to 42

Is too close to believe. I agree, the polls are wrong. Every rally Obama had he had massive crowds compared to McCain. Even in his own state of Az they had to cancel because not enough people showed up. 2+2=5

[Phred42]

11. Stop quoting Gallup - Their polls are rigged and have been for years

[Zorra]

13. The polls need to "support" the manipulated tallies of electronic voting machines in November. n/t

[dtotire]

14. Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%

Source: Gallup.com

Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%
Registered voters evenly split in their support for
Obama versus McCain

PRINCETON, NJ -- According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 29-31, John McCain and Barack Obama are now tied at 44% in the preferences of national registered voters.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tie...

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tie...

[liberal N proud]

15. BULL F#@% SHIT

Obama lost 10 points in a week? MY ASS!

[gateley]

17. If you're comparing Gallup polls, Obama was never at 54% --

The highest has been 49%, so he's lost 5 points.

[goclark]

18. Not possible at all ~

The fix is in

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Of course it's possible.

It happens every election cycle. Carter, in 1980, shot up 10 points on Ronald Reagan the night he gave a special address to the nation. The lead lasted a few days and Reagan was once again leading.

Generally convention bumps aren't lasting, only continuing for maybe a week before the numbers return to where they were. Obama's trip probably fits this category.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. It's not a surprise. Traditionally that is what happens after bumps.

Rarely are bumps lasting. Convention bumps, endorsement bumps and even foreign trip bumps might build your lead, but once the news cycle returns to normal, you shoot back down. This is what I thought could happen, but obviously had hoped wouldn't. I knew Obama would see a bump, but it proved to not be prolonged, which isn't a surprise, but a bit frustrating.

[flamingdem]

41. I don't buy it - SET-UP for ratings or to steal election? How can we protest Diebold now?? n/t

[movonne]

44. These polls are to set us up for another steal...there is no way it

is even close...

[gateley]

16. I don't care if it IS too early, or if the polls don't MEAN anything...

I hate seeing this.

[slackmaster]

19. It's difficult to face the fact that the race is likely to be close

Don't let it get you down, gateley.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. I think DUers need to wake up to this.

They like to say the polls are wrong and maybe they are, but there is also a huge chance the popular vote is close. Obama will comfortably win the electoral college, but the popular vote won't be a blowout. If anyone thinks it will be, they just don't know American politics.

[gateley]

39. I'll remember to keep that in mind - seriously. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

40. I've tried to map this out a few times.

But not many people read it, or don't care.

Even Clinton in 1996, as an incumbent, beat Dole by only 8 points nationally. The popular vote is almost always closer than the electoral college, with a few exceptions. Reagan in 1984, Nixon in '72 and Johnson in '64 are the most recent examples.

Obama very well could blow this thing open, or the polls will remain tight, while Obama wins all the big states (which he's doing right now). Remember, even if Obama wins the following states by 1%, it's still a landslide victory:

PA
Ohio
Florida
Michigan
Virginia
North Carolina
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico

He does that, and we're looking at a landslide electoral college win, with a fairly tight popular vote.

[gateley]

42. That even reassures me further. Thanks! nt

[defendandprotect]

56. Or, you might be reporting on steals since ....

the coup on government in '63 . . . ???

[gateley]

37. Yeah, we just get so excited when we see the numbers

reflect what we feel they SHOULD. I'll buck up.

[tekisui]

25. But, the good news is, this is mcwither's ceiling.

He's not breached 45% since it became clear Obama would be the NOminee.

Obama will move up and down in the National polls for the next 95 days, but mcwither will not move up, I expect him to be back near the 30's again, soon.

It's his turn to take some media hits. The M$M can't appear to be all anti-Obama for too long.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. I've said as much.

I'll start to worry the second McCain breaks 46%.

If Sunday McCain leads 46%-42%, then I'll wonder if Obama is letting it slip away. However, until then, I will continue to believe McCain's average is 40-44% in these polls...which is just too small to win.

[gateley]

35. Thanks, glass-half-full tekisui! Good point. nt

[tridim]

20. Hahahaha.. Gallup, you're so silly!

Anyone who believes this poll is an idiot. Eh MSM?

[Aviation Pro]

22. Gallup's methodology has been corrupted....

...there was an article yesterday on this and I'll try to find the link later. Basically, they have changed the method of analysis surrounding "likely voters" to slew toward Republicans. Gallup and Rasmussen have ceased to be accurate gauges of voters moods and are trying to influence the election.

[goclark]

27. I believe you ~ aren't they related t the Bush Crooks too?

[chelsea0011]

24. It just goes to show that having the ads and getting the media on

board to talk about them gives McCain an advantage no matter how the media chooses to discuss them. It is giving McCain free ad time all the time. Truth is that Obama going overseas and not being able to respond to McCain at home has slowed his campaign.

[BlueEyedSon]

28. What is wrong with the people of this country?

[sofa king]

30. No, this really is bullshit!

As explained here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/29/gallups-likely ...

Gallup started weighting their polls differently, ignoring the massive party affiliation in favor of Democrats. So it's even if you pretend there are an equal number of Democratic and Republican voters. But there are 20 million more Democratic voters this year, so what Gallup is really doing is throwing a bone to the press vultures who are trying to make this walkover a race.

[Mz Pip]

31. When did this start?

Before or after Obama was 9 points up?

We've been mocking McCain as desperate as he slings mud and innuendo. Desperate or successful?

For all the outrage at the negative attacks, they do seem to be making a dent in Obama's popularity.

I just wonder why the Repugs can get away with this slime and the Democrats can't.

[sofa king]

33. Sometime in the past month, it seems.

"McCain's gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge." Said USA Today.

The Democrats probably still do have an 11-point edge in party affiliation. Gallup just stopped factoring it in.

The Republicans can get away with this sort of slime because they own the papers. I see two plausible motives, both of them dishonest: they want to sell newspapers by keeping it a close race; or, they know they can't get close enough to steal it, so they're trying to steal it anyway by flogging false polls early and often.

[bitchkitty]

36. Link broke

Gallup's "Likely Voters" Poll: A Snapshot Or A Hypothesis?

[jimshoes]

32. I'll believe that when I see McSame filling up stadiums

instead of grade school gymnasiums. Baloney.

[bitchkitty]

34. Bullshit.

And here we go again.

[L0oniX]

38. I'm calling bullshit on that poll. WTF has a land line phone anymore? Trailer trash?

[Phred42]

43. Stop quoting Gallup - Their polls are rigged and have been for years

[fascisthunter]

45. lololol.... Corporate Media doing all they can for the Anemic Candidate

republicans=losers

[jeff30997]

46. "Anemic Candidate"

You're too kind.That guy is a living dead vegetable.

[BrklynLiberal]

49. Frankly. I do not believe this.

I think McSame doubts it as well or he would not be stooping into a mud-slinging campaign mode.

[EFerrari]

50. I don't believe it. McWar is not liked and people tend to like Obama

more as they get to know him. This is just the run up to another stolen election --- if we let them do it.

[Rebellious Republican]

51. Which is about where it will stay until election day, then McSame

will pull ahead at the last minute to win the election by a majority of voters, eliminating the need for a recount!

[zeemike]

53. I am surprised at how many people don't get that

After the last two stolen elections you would think we would have learned something.

[robcon]

54. The campaign begins after the conventions.

Obama will pull away by Labor Day, IMO.

[defendandprotect]

55. More BS . . . I'd imagine this is more like 64% to 36% ....

[NuttyFluffers]

58. oh, so it's a 10%+ advantage for Obama then, since Gallup is now officially known for GOP bias

great to know! it's looking great for Obama, then!