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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:36 PM
Original message
Obama expands delegate lead over Clinton
Source: Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat Barack Obama expanded his fragile lead in delegates over rival Hillary Rodham Clinton on Saturday, picking up at least seven delegates as Iowa activists took the next step in picking delegates to the national convention.

Half the 14 delegates allocated to John Edwards on the basis of caucus night projections switched Saturday and Obama got most, if not all, of them.

Iowa Democratic Party officials said that with more than 86 percent of the delegates picked, Obama claimed 52 percent of the delegates elected at county conventions on Saturday, compared to 32 percent for Clinton. About 16 percent of the delegates picked at Saturday's conventions were sticking with Edwards, even though he's dropped from the race since Iowa held its caucuses in January.

Democratic Party projections said the results mean Obama increased by seven the number of delegates he collects from the state, getting a total of 23 compared to 14 for Clinton and seven for Edwards, with one to be decided.



Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080315/ap_on_el_pr/democra... ;_ylt=AgfTsvPjR0oJ0gdvw64qOpwE1vAI
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. damn PS
couldn't you have at least posted the new Rasmussen poll again for the Clinton folks I mean there were only 38 of them today
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. Sweet!
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monmouth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:42 PM
Response to Original message
3. This is kind of nice for the Edwards supporters. Good for them..n/t
Hope he does get a cabinet position in the Democratic administration.
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Oslo Donating Member (40 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
21. I wish he'd endorse & campaign for Obama n/t
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here_is_to_hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Agreed and a big DU welcome for ya! n/t
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connecticut yankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
38. I think
he'd make a great Attorney General!
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jaysunb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
4. "fragile" lead ????
147 seems a bit more like "commanding" :evilfrown:
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greyghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Welcome to reality, it's not commanding at all.
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soleft Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #6
19. Not commanding? Okay, Just insurmountable
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. I had the exact same reaction. I would have just said "lead" w/ no adjective. nt
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Doug.Goodall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. GOBAMA!
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #4
25. I saw that too ...

I saw that too. The media is egging on the notion of having this go to the convention.

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texasleo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
5. It's over
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greyghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. NE was going to be 19-0, Foreman was going to kill Ali. Should
I go on? It's going to the convention, and Hillary may well be the nominee.
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Abacus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
20. pssst
Hillary is Foreman.
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mhoran Donating Member (289 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #8
22. Only if the Dem superdelegates defy the will of their constituants...
...and the harm that would bring to the Democratic Party in November and beyond would be immeasurable.
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Doug.Goodall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. GOBAMA!
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
7. Some one throw in the towel!
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greyghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Dream on.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #9
29. She will. She's done.
NT!

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Doug.Goodall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. GOBAMA!
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truthisfreedom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
10. I'm glad Iowa was next, after this pastor flap.
Sensible people down there. I'm in Minnesota.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #10
39. Sensibile people who value "nice" over "nasty"
I'm in Wisconsin and we're that way too. But Iowans even moreso. Very nice, polite folks there from what I've experienced.

And we know who's been nice and who's been nasty in this campaign lately.
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Misanthrope2 Donating Member (102 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
12. Delegates may change: Obama nears Clinton in negatives.
A new Rasmussen poll shows Clinton with 51 percent negative and Obama at 49 percent negative.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

Clinton's negative numbers are steady; Obama's are rising.

It's a long time to the convention and delegates may change from Obama if his negatives keep rising.

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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Great news...
for McCain
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Misanthrope2 Donating Member (102 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
26. You sure are right about that.
McCain's negatives are at 41 percent. He also has a slight lead over both Clinton and Obama in the Rasmussen poll. Somebody needs to do something. Maybe the union campaigns can help.
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catgirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 02:58 AM
Response to Reply #26
41. Wait until the McCain dirt comes out

Right now all of Obama's (which isn't much) and some of Hillary's dirt is
already out there. McCain hasn't been touched yet. His negs will go up.
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Misanthrope2 Donating Member (102 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #41
46. What McCain dirt will come out?
Seems like spin to say there isn't much dirt on Obama. And what dirt is there on McCain that you think will come out? There is the Keating 5, wife is a druggie and thief, and flip-flopping on torture and supporting fundamentalists. What else are you expecting? And why would that affect his support? They are Republicans, you know.
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catgirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. Swing voters... (nt)
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JAbuchan08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. funny how negatives rise when people conduct an unrelenting negative campaign
misanthrope2 huh?

Did Misanthrope1 leave recently?
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. that last line was funny....
and I suppose it's no more negative than what the 527's will do on behalf of McCain... which is fine by me. I want to see how ignorant or intelligent this country REALLY is - truly, after 8 years of shrub's warmongering - it's laughable that this should be a race - between all the spying on citizens, and scandals of secrecy, Obama should win by 55-45. I will be LONG gone if he loses to that angry man.
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mhoran Donating Member (289 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. Hmmm
I wouldn't suppose that would have anything to do with Camp Clinton's repuglican-esque attacks.
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Connonym Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #12
30. Golly I wonder why Obama's negatives are rising?
Maybe Hillary should STFU before she sinks the entire party? I hope her enormous ego is worth the party losing this election. Yes, I'm still bitter that Edwards dropped out before I even got to the primary but if he can bow out for party unity can't Hillary and Obama be civilized so that one or the other of them comes out clean enough to kick McCain ass? That's the real goal here, isn't it?
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #12
36. Nah. She's done.
NT!

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Omaha Steve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:05 PM
Response to Original message
27. Way back in Dec-Jan I worked for Edwards in Iowa

I also drove a former Republican to the caucus so she could caucus for Edwards. I also appeared in the Edwards video "Just Say No". I switched to Obama a few days after Edwards dropped out. It was time well spent.

I'm in the black hat & yellow shirt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lR9GYelgz18

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KAZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #27
43. OMG! You're exactly as I pictured.
DU is lucky to have you on our board. I always look forward to your threads, as it seems the only unions the MSM think exist, are in Hollywood. Clumsy sentence, but you get my point.
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Omaha Steve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #43
44. Just wondering

Is that a good or bad thing, your mental image of me was on target? :-)

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KAZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. A great thing!
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:12 PM
Response to Original message
28. Wondering what the reporter finds "fragile" about that widening lead.
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. It is just more of the DLC bullshit. Look at the updated math:
Using demconwatch numbers, and leaving FL and MI out of it for sake of argument,

Obama has 1598 delegates pledges and committed supers.

Let's assume that the 343 uncommitted supers break 50/50 (in fact they will break mostly for Obama, but let's just say 50/50) That gives Obama 1770.

Now let's say Clinton wins PA 60/40 (she won't) and they split the rest of the states 50/50 (Clinton do that well). That gives Obama another 259 delegates, for a total of 2029. That's more than enough to put him over the top, and it doesn't even count delegates he is certain to pick up as the rest of the committed delegate totals sort themselves out from states that have already voted, just as Iowa did today.

Clinton cannot possibly win unless FL and MI are put into the mix. But if there is a re-do in both states and Clinton wins both of them by 20 points (60/40), she still only gains 37 in FL and 26 in MI. That's not nearly enough because she's on pace to be behind by 200 delegates or more by that time.
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psquare Donating Member (76 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #31
37. Obama will have a lock on nomination with just 81 more superdelegate votes.
You actually can look at this as a sort of "Magic Number" like during pennant races.

I take demconwatch superdelegate endorsements, and Green Papers/CNN pledged delegate numbers.

Obama has 1394.5 Pledged Delegates (Clinton 1232.5)
With conservative predictions he'll win 297 more for a total of 1691.5 (Clinton 302 for 1534.5)
He already has 208 superdelegate endorsements (Clinton has 244)
He will get 45 Add-On Delegates from the states he has won (Clinton gets 29)
That is a total of 1944.5 Delegate votes (Clinton 1807.5)
Since the nomination number right now is 2024.5, he is 80 below that number.

Hillary is 217 below 2024.5

So Hillary needs over 80% of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates (269 taking out the Unpledged Add-Ons)

Considering Edwards has 18 Delegates and there are still 9 uncommitted Pledged Delegates, assuming a 50-50 split the Magic Number drops to 67 for Obama.



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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #28
33. I think he meant fragile lead in Iowa. nt
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:07 AM
Response to Original message
32. Scoooooooooore!
:-)

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Marnieworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:20 AM
Original message
weird terminology
First it's hardly a "fragile" lead if mathematically Clinton has to win 65% of the remaining contests to match him. When has she last won by such a margin let alone doing it from here on out?

But then the term "automatic" delegates to describe the super delegates. Since many of them have changed their endorsement or withheld a choice how are they "automatic"? The only place that I have ever read that phrase is on the Clinton website. I have thought for a while that AP has a bias towards the * administration. I think it's indicative of something if they are now showing bias towards Senator Clinton. Weird.
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
42. The establishment likes the candidates who will preserve the establishment
No surprise there. And the choice of key words here and there can make a real difference.

It is important to remember that many of the "committed" superdelegates have not actually come out say "I'm backing candidate X come hell or high water." Most of them have made softer statements of support in the direction of one candidate.

Superdelegates are all politicians. And politicians know which way the wind blows. They are rarely leaders, almost always followers. And they know how important it is to be connected with winners. A lot more of the ones in the Clinton column will switch once it becomes clear there is no chance for Clinton to win it. At the convention, Obama will win on the first vote with a very comfortable margin.
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Marnieworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
34. dupe
Edited on Sun Mar-16-08 12:20 AM by Marnieworld
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Marnieworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
35. dupe
Edited on Sun Mar-16-08 12:20 AM by Marnieworld
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Oslo Donating Member (40 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 01:16 AM
Response to Original message
40. Yes we can!
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