No recession expected this year: Congressional Budget Office

[ixion]

Source: reuters

By Richard Cowan and Donna Smith

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The slowing U.S. economy is unlikely to sink into an election-year recession and an economic rebound could begin as early as next year as housing and financial market turmoil fades, the Congressional Budget Office forecast on Wednesday.

In the meantime, the U.S. budget deficit will grow to $219 billion this year, up from the $163 billion registered last year, according to a CBO report submitted to Congress.

But that forecast by Congress' nonpartisan budget analyst does not include the cost of an economic stimulus measure that is quickly moving through Congress and could cost around $150 billion or more. The deficit projection for fiscal 2008, which ends September 30, also does not include more money Congress is likely to approve this year for the war in Iraq.

While CBO noted an elevated risk of recession, its outlook was weighted more toward the United States working through its current economic problems and escaping a full-blown recession.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSWAT00874820080123

---

Yeah, right. Is it any wonder that we're in such poor shape with morans like these at the helm?

[EFerrari]

1. This must be Opposite Day!

:wtf:

[CoffeeCat]

2. They're not morans...

...they know EXACTLY what they're doing to us.

This is not an accident.

Banks went unregulated--doling out risky loans. Credit-card companies were allowed to give
enormous credit lines to people who couldn't afford it. They've spent our country into
such enormous debt and our dollar is falling like a rock.

How can any of this be an accident? The knew the collective repercussions of all of this.

It's economic terrorism by BushCo--part of their "Shock and Awe" plan for America, that will
leave so many vulnerable and passive as the Fascism envelops our nation.

[ryanmuegge]

13. Yeah, these people are far from fools.

[MADem]

3. When Faux Snooze Rightwing Tool Neil Cavuto says we are in a recession already

(and he did that, this morning, on IMUS) you've got to assume that the 'gubmint' is talking out their ass.

Their puppets can't even spit out the bullshit!

It's sad that CBO has turned into a tool. It used to be reasonably fair.

[babylonsister]

4. They should have checked with Bernanke first, doncha think?

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2008/01/22/in-private-bernanke-tells-horror-stories.html?s_cid=rss:in-private-bernanke-tells-horror-stories.html

In Private, Bernanke Tells Horror Stories
January 22, 2008 04:46 PM ET | Bedard, Paul | Permanent Link

People wondering why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suddenly moved to reduce the bank borrowing rate by three quarters of a point should know that in private he has expressed growing pessimism about the economy. Whispers has learned that has told people in recent weeks that the economic situation some see falling into recession will be much worse than he has admitted to publicly.

We're told by those who've heard him that he says the first six months of this year will be "bad," an adjective that some interpret this as signaling there is better than a 50-50 chance for a recession. Even worse, the former Princeton prof believes the ensuing recovery will be "weak" because of persistent problems in the housing market that will result in subdued consumer spending. We checked in with his office, which says it doesn't comment on what the boss says in private. But it's certainly not comforting news considering that his recent public testimony was a bummer, like when he told Congress last week, "Recently, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and that the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced ... in particular, a number of factors, including continuing increases in energy prices, lower equity prices, and softening home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending as we move into 2008."

[ixion]

7. yeah, rather than just darth dick's office...

or they could've just asked a real economist. :evilgrin:

[gateley]

5. I don't think the word "recession" makes a difference to the woman who

can't afford a gallon of milk PLUS bologna for her kids. To people who LITERALLY don't have the money for their rent/mortgage AND electricity. Assholes. Call it what you want, people are hurting.

[theoldman]

6. First look up the definition of an economic recession.

All it takes is two quarters, thats six months, of economic decline and you are in a recession. After four quarters you are in deep shit.

[Virginia Dare]

18. deep shit, otherwise known as a Depression...n/t

[booksenkatz]

8. The CBO is cordially invited to Michigan. nt

[Acadia Blue]

9. They are stealing everything..just like the SandL crises...the pigs

are feeding off our hard earned money and getting fatter and fatter.

[MessiahRp]

10. I think at this point I'd be surprised if any Govt agency told the truth under Bush.

The CBO is usually somewhat fair but this would fly directly in the face of every other report and every ounce of common sense logic that exists. It smacks of the same ignorance Matt Lauer tried to use the other day when he was interviewing Mad Money's Jim Cramer and asked why we don't just lie about the recession (i.e. don't talk about it and somehow it won't happen. Sounds like Reaganomics at it's finest.)

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/01/17/lauer-to-cramer-why-dont-you-just-lie-about-the-economy/

Rp

[ThoughtCriminal]

11. There's a weasle way of "Avoiding Recession"

"In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

So, you can a 2% decline in one quarter, followed zero growth the next quarter, and then another quarter of big losses to the GDP, and technically, not be in a "Recession".

[Purveyor]

12. They will and can keep claiming that we are not in a recession. It usually takes

1 1/2 to 2 years before the 'economists' actually pinpoint the time that the recession 'officially' started.

Of course we all know the country is in a recession and in Michigan's case, a near depression.

[Robbien]

14. The Feds have so little creditablity these days

One can understand they are trying to stem the tide of panic in the markets but they have no sense of how little confidence the public has in them therefore they do not realize that statements such as this make them appear they are sounding like Baghdad Bob to all and sundry.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

15. Then why are banks, economists, hedge funds, central banks saying different?

The US economy is set for a long recession, a panel of economists at the World Economic Forum has warned.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7204368.stm

[benld74]

16. Wont be a recession until a Dem is in WH, then,,,

all hell breaks loose about
what are they going to do about it
is wan't like this when a repub wasn in the wh
all they want to do is tax you, and we told you that they would
yada yada yada

[KillCapitalism]

17. This is their spokesperson...

[Virginia Dare]

19. Okey dokey then...

[crim son]

20. I guess it's gonna take us by surprise, then.

:eyes:

Really, it's at the point where, if an administration official announced to me that the sky is blue, I'd have serious doubts about the validity of the statement.

[FiveGoodMen]

21. It isn't scheduled to begin till the pukes are out of the White House

[flashl]

22. Gee, I am relieved.

:sarcasm:

[laylah]

23. Another case of

nothing to see here, move along.