STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday January 4

[UpInArms]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday January 4

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 382 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2544 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2266 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE =2227
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES


AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 2, 2008

Dow... 3,056.72 up 12.76 (0.10%)
Nasdaq... 2,602.68 down 6.95 (0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,447.16 unchanged 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.901% unchanged 0.00
Gold future... $865.80





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie



PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions


(UIA - just filling in for Ozy!)

Read more: du

[texpatriot2004]

1. K & R nm

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Market WrapUp: A "Head and Shoulders" Top for the Dow Jones Industrials?

Let’s say the US economy goes into a deeper than expected slide and gets slammed with a nasty recession, S&P 500 profits shrivel up, and banks get hit with hundreds of billions in losses from sub-prime debt. The combined effects of the housing slump, the credit crunch, a spike in mortgage foreclosures, and crude oil bumping against $100 /barrel, appears to have sharply slowed US economic growth in the final months of 2007, raising the odds of a recession in the first half of 2008.



The closely watched ISM factory index for December slumped to 47.7, the lowest since April 2003. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction of activity. The ISM’s new orders measure fell to 45.7 from 52.6, and the employment index was below 50 for a second month. The ISM factory report added to recession fears, and crude oil’s brush with $100 a barrel knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.7% towards the 13,000 level on the first day of trading in 2008, a bearish omen.

On average, the S&P 500 index lost 26% of its value, during the past 11 recessions since 1945. Recessions usually occur every 5.5 years, and the last recession was in 2002. What then for the roughly 80 million US stock market operators? Does a US economic recession translate into a weaker stock market? Can the US Treasury’s “Plunge Protection Team” put a safety net under the stock market with government intervention and massive injections of cash from the Bernanke Fed?



...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Today's bucket of reports:

Jan 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Dec
briefing.com forecast 75K
market expects 70K
last 94K

Jan 4 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Dec
briefing.com forecast 4.8%
market expects 4.8%
last 4.7%

Jan 4 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Dec
briefing.com forecast 0.3%
market expects 0.3%
last 0.5%

Jan 4 8:30 AM Average Workweek Dec
briefing.com forecast 33.8
market expects 33.8
last 33.8

Jan 4 10:00 AM ISM Services Dec
briefing.com forecast 53.0
market expects 53.5
last 54.1

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. jobless rate jumps to 5% as payrolls grow 18,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B59C3681E%2D34B7%2D40C8%2DB135%2DBE6900E7ED11%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The unemployment rate shot up to 5% in December as job growth stalled, a sign that the U.S. economic slump has spread to the labor market. U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls rose by 18,000 in December, the weakest job growth since August 2003, according to a survey of thousands of businesses. Job growth was revised up by a total of 10,000 in November and October. Economists were expecting payrolls to increase about 58,000 in December. Private-sector payrolls fell by 13,000, the biggest decline in more than four years. A separate survey of households showed employment plunging by 436,000, marking the biggest decline in five years. The number of unemployed adults rose by 474,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 5.0% from 4.7%.

(edited because I posted the line item info and it was wrong - sorry)

[Demeter]

37. And the Actual "Growth" Is No Doubt Negative

There's no amount of hand-waving that can make Reality go away now.

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. Dec. ISM services 53.9% vs. 53.8%

01. U.S. Dec. ISM services 53.9% vs. 53.8%
10:01 AM ET, Jan 04, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

4. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.026 Change +0.142 (+0.19%)

Currency Markets Look to Non-Farm Payrolls to Determine US Recession Risks

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Currency_Markets_Look_to_Non_Farm_1199373288420.html

The possibility of a US recession in 2008 is one of the biggest debates in the financial markets and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report will be critical in determining whether a recession is not only possible, but probable.

The possibility of a US recession in 2008 is one of the biggest debates in the financial markets and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report will be critical in determining whether a recession is not only possible, but probable. Market expectations have shifted significantly based upon incoming economic data. On December 31st, stronger existing home sales led futures traders to believe that the Federal Reserve only needs to lower interest rates by 25bp at the end of January. However these expectations shifted significantly on Wednesday after manufacturing ISM fell into contractionary levels in December. The futures market went from pricing in the odds for a 25bp vs. 0bp rate cut to 25bp vs. 50bp. As much as ISM has been able to shift the market’s expectations for interest rates, the impact that non-farm payrolls will be even more dramatic because a weak labor market compounds the odds for a recession.

What Should Traders Watch For

In November, non-farm payrolls increased by 94k, which was stronger than the market expected but not good enough to stop the dollar from falling the following Monday and Tuesday. Of the 10 leading indicators for non-farm payrolls that we typically follow, 9 forecasted job growth to be weaker than the month of October, and only the ADP employment report projected a strong released. Now, 6 of the 10 indicators forecast weak job growth, including the ADP report and ISM Manufacturing. Usually, the ISM Services report is released prior to non-farm payrolls and is one of the indicators we typically use. However, this month it will hit the wires after non-farm payrolls so instead, we’ve added Continuing Claims to the list. This figure actually rose for the fourth consecutive week to two-year high of 2761k, suggesting that more and more people are having difficulty finding work and are becoming reliant on unemployment benefits. Of the 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the most optimistic forecast is by Desjardins Group who expects an addition of 106k jobs while the most pessimistic is by National City Bank, who expects an increase of only 22k jobs. We expect the dollar to rally if payroll growth is stronger than 90k, but if it is less than 65k, dollar weakness will continue.

...more...

US Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Services

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/US_Dollar_Edges_Higher_Ahead_1199447521398.html

The US Dollar did something rather unusual this morning: it strengthened. Indeed, EURUSD was pulled down towards support at 1.47 while USDCHF crept higher for a test of 1.1150. On the other hand, the British pound actually managed to garner a bid tone as the plunge in the GBPUSD and GBPJPY pairs ran into sturdy support levels and recovered slightly. However, how long Sterling can hold its ground for remains to be seen, as the currency stands on shaky ground in both fundamental and technical terms (For more resources dedicated to this currency please visit the new British Pound Currency Room).

Looking at this morning’s economic data, Swiss CPI grew 0.2 percent during the month of December, pushing the annual rate of growth to a 12-year high of 2.0 percent on the back of energy price gains. Indeed, Swiss National Bank President Jean-Pierre Roth said in mid-December that rising energy prices would "likely" push inflation above the bank's 2 percent ceiling in the first half of 2008 for the first time in nearly 13 years, though he indicated the rise would be "temporary" in nature. The SNB anticipates that slowing economic growth will put a cap on building price pressures, but with oil and other commodity costs skyrocketing as we start out 2008, softer expansion may not do the trick and the central bank may consider enacting one more round of rate normalization this year. However, this may only be possible if the instability in the financial markets dies down.

In other news, growth in the Euro-zone services sector slowed in line with expectations during December as PMI eased to 53.1 from 54.1 in November. A breakdown of the index shows that near every business component has fallen, including employment, new business, input prices, and outstanding business. Nevertheless, all of these readings were above the critical 50 boom/bust level, signaling expansion. Meanwhile, business expectations and prices charged actually edged slightly higher, which may suggest the service-oriented businesses remain optimistic for their prospects in 2008, as improving labor market conditions continue to fuel consumption growth.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar falls sharply after payrolls report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-falls-sharply-after-payrolls/story.aspx?guid=%7B112707F8%2D754B%2D4E51%2DBF85%2D4C8E731C1801%7D&dist=morenews

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell sharply against other major currencies on Friday, after a report showed that the unemployment rate shot up to 5% in December as job growth stalled, a sign that the U.S. economic slump has spread to the labor market. U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls rose by 18,000 in December, the weakest job growth since August 2003, according to a survey of thousands of businesses. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other currencies, fell 0.5% at 75.495.

[burf]

14. According to your

charts, it looks as though it fell off a cliff. Just a sign of that which is yet to come.

[UpInArms]

15. I see that

and I'm :scared:

[UpInArms]

33. dollar dropping

Last trade 75.523 Change -0.361 (-0.47%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 75.932

Previous Close 76.483 High 76.079

Low 75.429 2008-01-04 09:37:06, 30 min delay

52wk High 85.43 52wk High Date 2007-01-26

52wk Low 74.484 52wk Low Date 2007-11-23

[UpInArms]

5. Talbots to exit Kids, Mens units, close 78 stores

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSWNAS563420080104?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apparel retailer Talbots Inc (TLB.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday it will exit its Talbots Kids and Mens lines, and close 78 U.S. stores by September.

The company will cut about 800 full- and part-time jobs, about 5 percent of its work force, and record a pretax charge of $34 million to $42 million, or 40 cents to 49 cents a share, in fiscal 2008.

[UpInArms]

6. Wall St regulators probing brokerages: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080104/bs_nm/finra_cmo_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Securities regulators are probing several brokerage firms dealing with collateralized mortgage obligations, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street's self-regulatory body, sent letters to brokerages last month inquiring about the marketing and sales of mortgage-related products, the report said.

The report cited a letter, dated December 14. The letter suggested regulators were investigating whether brokers sold the products to individuals just as the market for related products was collapsing, it said.

...more...

[HughBeaumont]

7. 18,000 jobs! 5.0 UR!

52,000 under estimate!

Sheesh.

[Roland99]

21. But, hey! It's a positive number. It must be good, right?

:eyes:


Note this chart and keep in mind that equilibrium is around 150k - 160k:
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Image.aspx?Guid=16beba8035614e97b3bfde3a3abe908c&Track=201

[Roland99]

24. OMG! They didn't!! They DID!!! CNBC talking head spins this as POSITIVE JOB GROWTH!!

:banghead:


Lazear. What a TOOL!!!

[HughBeaumont]

28. It's making me throw up chunks.

I have CNBC on at work. It makes me violently ill that there's NEVER bad Economic news under an incompetent Republican president on any M$M station.

Mark this post, though, for when there's a Democratic President . .. and THEN see how things get spun.

[Hugin]

30. ...

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

9. Oil prices fall below $99

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices?_ylt=AoX2WZHCnT8TVN.S3tctsWCb.HQA

Oil prices fell slightly Friday from the previous session's close after setting a record above $100 a barrel the day before on a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery was down 35 cents to $98.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe.

On Thursday, the contract rose as high as $100.09 a barrel, a trading record, before retreating to settle at $99.18, down 44 cents.

In London, Brent crude fell 22 cents Friday to $97.38 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Prices have been volatile in recent days due to low holiday week trading volumes. That means some of the price moves, including Thursday's record, may be exaggerated.

The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Thursday that crude inventories fell 4 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.7 million barrel decline analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected.

The large decline wasn't able to keep oil prices above $100 "likely because the inventory drawdown was at least in part attributed to year-end inventory management by American oil companies," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Suit says IBM dumped chemicals in New York state

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080103/bs_nm/ibm_lawsuit_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Neighbors of a former IBM (IBM.N) plant in New York state sued the company on Thursday, saying it released chemicals into the air, ground and water for nearly 80 years that caused birth defects and cancer.

Some 90 residents of the upstate New York towns of Endicott and Union say that from 1924 to 2002, IBM dumped chemicals including trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene near the Endicott plant where the computer giant was born.

They seek unspecified damages, according to the suit filed in Broome County Superior Court.

"IBM will defend itself vigorously against these claims that have no merit in science," company spokesman Michael Maloney said.

The lawsuit is the first of several planned against IBM by nearly 1,000 people who say they have been harmed by the chemicals, lawyers for the plaintiffs said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. stock futures turn lower after payrolls report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-skid-after/story.aspx?guid=%7B4BB8FD4B%2D3A0D%2D45A9%2DBDED%2DF206BEF7F2D9%7D&dist=morenews_ts

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures dropped Friday as payrolls growth rose a tepid 18,000 in December, fanning fears of a sharp economic slowdown or even a recession.

S&P 500 futures dropped 10 points to 1,448.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 22.5 points to 2,053.75.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 83 points.

The unemployment rate shot up to 5% in December as job growth stalled, a sign that the U.S. economic slump has spread to the labor market.

U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls rose by 18,000 in December, the weakest job growth since August 2003, according to a survey of thousands of businesses.

Job growth was revised up by a total of 10,000 in November and October. Economists were expecting payrolls to increase about 58,000 in December.

Private-sector payrolls fell by 13,000, the biggest decline in more than four years.

The dollar dropped against the Japanese yen and the euro after the data.

Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds dropped to 3.81%.

...more...

[TalkingDog]

13. Anybody taking side bets on the ponies today?

I think there's a big, dark, horse moving in fast. Feels like a dropping back kind of day today.


Have fun, I'll check in later to see how the ticket window is doing.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[UpInArms]

16. looks to be a big ugly cloud - I wonder if money will fall from the sky

to perk up the traders?

[Roland99]

22. DJIA futures down 123 a few min. before the open.

[Hugin]

29. I saw 128...

Then I stepped out of the room for a moment and it was up by 12.

A few seconds later it was below 13,000. :crazy:

[zabet]

17. K and R

Thanks UIA!
:toast:

[UpInArms]

18. Citigroup - 4th quarter writedown of $15.3 Billion in CDOs anticipated

2 minutes ago Keefe, Bruyette lowers Citigroup Q4, '07 EPS estimates - MarketWatch

2 minutes ago Keefe expects Citi to write down $15.3 bln CDOs for Q4 - MarketWatch

[UpInArms]

19. Prediction: Total writedowns from the subprime mess will exceed $100 billion.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/paid-wrong-2007/story.aspx?guid=%7b66F6DC00-CCD9-4D06-8438-A46C69CDB2E6%7d&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN&print=true&dist=printTop

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It paid to be wrong in 2007.

Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) has written off nearly $13 billion related to subprime debt and could write off another $10 billion when it reports quarterly earnings next month. For betting big in this area, Stanley O'Neal was able to retire with $160 million in his pocket.

Blackstone Group (BX) sold to the public shares that lost 30% of their value in the first six months. CEO Steven Schwarzman was estimated to have made $400 million to $700 million from the sale.

Citi's (C) Chuck Prince and Todd Thomson, UBS' Peter Wueffli, Bear Stearns Cos.
(BSC) Warren Spector and many others also walked away winners for losing.

<snip>

Total writedowns from the subprime mess will exceed $100 billion.

...more...

[Hugin]

31. I've heard much higher predictions...

After this rat works it's way through the snake and the numbers were closer to a Trillion. (with a 'T').

[UpInArms]

20. US RATE FUTURES-Weak Dec jobs build case for 50 bps cut

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0463772520080104

CHICAGO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures jumped on Friday after a weak employment report for December suggested the Federal Reserve could be forced to respond aggressively to a deteriorating economy.

The jump in futures priced as much as a 54 percent chance that the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates by 50 basis points FFG8 when it meets at its Jan 29-30 meeting, up from 38 percent overnight. A 25 basis point rate cut is fully priced.

"The market is going to see 50 basis points now as at least a 50-50 call, to some extent dependent on near-term inflation data," said Alan Ruskin, chief global strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 18,000 in December against Wall Street's consensus of 70,000, the weakest monthly reading since August 2003.

Analysts were taken aback by a 0.3-point spike in the jobless rate, which implied a rapid deterioration in the labor market.

It was the biggest one-month jump in the unemployment rate since October 2001. Wall Street had looked for a jobless rate of 4.8 percent.

...more...

[Roland99]

23. And they're off! And falling off a cliff

Dow down 50 in the first min.

9:32am
Dow 12,980.72 -76.00
Nasdaq 2,568.81 -33.87
S&P 500 1,436.50 -10.66
10 YR 3.85% -0.05
Oil $98.95 $-0.23
Gold $866.50 $-2.60

[UpInArms]

25. 9:35 EST and way under 13k now - DOW off 100+

Dow 12,953.16 103.56 (0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,564.26 38.42 (1.48%)
S&P 500 1,432.86 14.30 (0.99%)
10-Yr Bond 3.856% 0.045

NYSE Volume 124,351,234.375
Nasdaq Volume 107,169,601.562

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.0. It is still shaping up to be a sharply lower open as the jobs data weigh on sentiment. Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will be speaking about the economy at 11:15 ET. On Nov. 28, the S&P 500 surged more than 2.8% after Kohn hinted at a Dec. 11 rate cut during a speech.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.5. Stock futures continue to decline on the weaker than expected employment report. Dow Component Intel (INTC) is set for another lower open today, which follows its 7.5% decline during the first two days of trading in 2008. This session’s selling pressure comes after Intel was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at JP Morgan. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are set to sharply decline at the open after the company reported earnings that met estimates, but provided fourth quarter guidance well below expectations.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.0. The futures market sharply drops immediately following disappointing employment data. December nonfarm payrolls grew by 18K, which is lower from last month’s revised reading of 115K. Economists expected payrolls to increase by 70K, although a recent Dow Jones survey came in it 50K. The unemployment rate was 5.0% (consensus 4.8%), the prior rate was 4.7%.

[Roland99]

27. And still falling

Dow 12,925.77 -130.95
Nasdaq 2,557.98 -44.70
S&P 500 1,429.84 -17.32
10 YR 3.85% -0.05
Oil $98.38 $-0.80
Gold $865.40 $-3.70


Lazear on CNBC talking about tax cuts and economic stimulus packages (even though that's the shit that got us into trouble 5-6 years ago)

[Hugin]

34. They're jonesing for a rate cut on some of the other channels...

Free money is hard to pass up.

Damn the consequences we've got HUMMERS to feed!

[Roland99]

46. Anything to make sure the markets perform well, no matter how bad things are behind the curtain.

[tuckessee]

26. Off like a lead balloon.

Folks, your local coin shop probably opens by 10:00.

It's not too late to buy an ounce or two of AU.

[UpInArms]

35. Fed check-kiting program in progress: Fed to undertake weekend repo after 6-day repo

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0430171320080104

NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said it would add temporary reserves to the banking system through a weekend repurchase agreement on Friday, following an earlier six-day repurchase agreement.

Federal funds, the benchmark overnight lending rate to banks, last traded at 4.25 percent, at the Fed's targeted rate.

[UpInArms]

36. 10:20 EST DOW under 12,900 now - down 160+

Dow 12,894.96 161.76 (1.24%)
Nasdaq 2,551.75 50.93 (1.96%)
S&P 500 1,427.27 19.89 (1.37%)
10-Yr Bond 3.852% 0.049

NYSE Volume 702,404,125
Nasdaq Volume 434,420,000

10:05 am : Just hitting the wires, December ISM Services, a national non-manufacturing survey, came in at 53.9 (consensus 53.5). Any reading above 50 indicates growth. The major indices continue to be under selling pressure with all ten economic sectors in the red.

Consumer discretionary (-2.2%) is the main laggard. Retailers (-3.4%) are a major drag on the sector as market participants worry about slow downs in consumer spending. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY 24.98, -2.42) are down nearly 9% after the company reported earnings that met estimates, but guided its fourth quarter earnings guidance below expectations.DJ30 -149.37 NASDAQ -44.99 SP500 -18.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2007/488/212 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2248/503/124 mln

[Demeter]

38. It Looks Like the End of the Beginning

Nothing can save us now. Well, maybe chocolate, freely applied. And lots of hard work.

What really frosts me, when the experts and the officials start berating the American people for not saving enough, is how people saved and invested, and then lost everything in the Enron, WorldCom, Tycho, etc etc frauds, and now the rest of the world is doing the same in the American-propagated mortgage derivative frauds, and there are more frauds just starting to come unraveled. How is any of that the worker's fault?

[antigop]

52. ..but,but,but. they should have taken PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY

They should have KNOWN better than to invest. They should have done due diligence. Who should have been watching out for them? They should have been watching out for themselves. What do you want -- the government to do EVERYTHING for you?

:sarcasm:

[TalkingDog]

53. Sorry, off topic, but re: chocolate - Karen Finley immediately sprang to mind.

The problem, I think, is a holdover mindset from an earlier time. There was a tacit agreement where Workers trusted their Employers not to screw them over and the Workers, in turn, would show up for work, not rob the place blind or form a Union.

Now we have a form of Economic Darwinism in play, in part because Workers literally can't comprehend anything beyond making sure they don't get caught under the treads of their crushing debt. Employers use the threat of that stick to keep them in jobs where they are working longer hours with relatively less pay and with fewer benefits and less time off than in years past.

It's basically the same as training elephants. When the elephant is young and inexperiened, you put a huge, heavy chain on him and attach it to a large log. He can move around, but with great effort. And he certainly cannot break the chain or move the log.

After a while you take off the chain and use a heavy rope in the same way. As he grows, you use lighter and lighter ropes and smaller and smaller pieces of wood until, in the end all that is holding him is a light rope and a small stake. Now, all that is keeping him from freedom is merely the idea that he is attached to an immoveable object by an unbreakable rope.

There is nothing keeping people from standing up and walking out of their cubicles and into the streets. Nothing to stop them en masse, from demanding what was promised to them. Not. One. Thing. Except the idea that somehow, they would have no way to cope with the consequences of that action.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Demeter]

54. Ah, But What Happens When the Cubicles Walk Away from the Workers?

I liked to be reminded about Karen Finney (what a flake!) It gave me a giggle.

[burf]

55. I don't think it is entirely

a mindset. People are not going to simply get up and leave the cubicle or whatever place they work. How many have the wherewithal to pay the mortgage, car payment and whatever other debts? Most do not have savings because we now have a savings rate worse than since the great depression. How many are truly living paycheck to paycheck? How many have had their pensions stolen from them by corrupt corporate slimeballs?

Anyone who thinks that just walking out of a job is going to massively influence the company they work for is seriously misguided. They will just find another person willing to assume the duties. An example of this is a couple months ago, I believe it was in Chicago Walmart was opening a new store. They had something like 400 positions and got a couple thousand applicants. For a stinkin' ass retail job that pays what about eight and a half bucks an hour?

Get real.

[TalkingDog]

56. Thank you for proving my point almost to the letter.

And upon re-reading my post, I don't see the phrase: "It's entirely due to this mindset."

When Unions were very strong, it would take an act of utter stupidy or sheer desperation to cross a picket line. Entire factories were shut down for weeks at a time.

A friend of mine, now in her late 80's will tell, if you ask, about her times as a young woman, sneaking food and water into strikers who were barracaded into the factory they had taken over. She did this knowing if she were caught she could go to jail, or worse.

Those people had exactly the same concerns: families, mortgages, debts. Yet somehow they pulled it off and got what they demanded at the same time.

She was married to a Union leader who was later murdered on the streets. I would like to see her response when you tell her to "Get Real".

My response to you is most likely kinder than hers would be.: Learn some history. Stop thinking you and your times are unique and special.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[burf]

62. Looking back at my post I must

be missing something. Please point out the quotation marks that I must have missed in my reply. But perhaps projection is what you are attempting.

As far as the union. I was a Teamster in a previous job. My dad was a union member for just about his entire working life. Today, take a look at the union membership, what 13% of the workforce. Of which the majority are government employees. So what percentage of the non government workers are union? Five maybe six? It is probably not going to change. Why? Because the current workforce is cast from the "its all about me" generation. The if we don't hang together, we will all hang separately mindset is gone.

You can tell your friend what I said and forward her response it you like. Whatever makes your boat float.

[donkeyotay]

58. Free market our asses. One group benefits while another one pays

From UIA's post 19

Blackstone Group (BX) sold to the public shares that lost 30% of their value in the first six months. CEO Steven Schwarzman was estimated to have made $400 million to $700 million from the sale.

The public with their mutual funds and pensions lose again.

[MilesColtrane]

39. Awww...

They're so cute when they're little.

Too bad they grow up and eat your retirement savings.

[Roland99]

42. he he

nice one!

[Demeter]

40. Asset Backed Commercial Outstandings Increase for First Time Since August

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/asset-backed-commercial-outstandings.html




Although a robin does not make a spring, the increase in ABCP outstandings is the first sign of improvement in the market for asset backed paper in quite some time. The required spread over 30-day Libor also improved dramatically. From Bloomberg:


For the first time since the August freeze in the credit markets, companies issued more IOUs backed by collateral as the cost to borrow in the short-term debt fell to the lowest in 22 months.

Commercial paper backed by mortgages, credit-card loans and other assets rose $26.3 billion to a seasonally adjusted $773.8 billion for the week ended Jan. 2, the Federal Reserve in Washington said today.

The 3.5 percent increase, the biggest gain in at least seven years, snapped a 20-week losing streak that began as losses from subprime mortgages caused a retreat from all but the safest government debt. Yields on the paper due in 30 days posted their biggest weekly decline in at least a decade as investors became more willing to hold the debt.

``The market is stabilizing,'' said Neal Neilinger, managing director and co-founder at NSM Capital Management LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``I don't think we'll see another drop, unless there's another headline that hits.''

Interest rates on the short-term debt due in 30 days fell 1.16 percentage point this week to 4.63 percent, or 9 basis points more than the one-month London interbank offered rate, Bloomberg data show. The spread fell from 116 basis points, the widest on record, on Dec. 28. In the first half of 2007, the yield on asset-backed commercial paper was on average 5.5 basis points less than Libor. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``The market's in a process of healing,'' Neilinger said in a telephone interview. ``The weakest are going to fall and the strongest are going to survive.''....

WHAT DO YOU THINK, FELLOW BLOGGERS?

[Roland99]

43. some testing of the waters? I don't doubt there's been some "healing" but...

I also don't think the worst has hit yet.

[Demeter]

41. Citi Restricts ATM Withdrawals in NYC

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/citi-restricts-atm-withdrawals-in-nyc.html





Reader Jim J sent this item from the Daily News, which tells of the indignities suffered by Citibank customers in New York City (including Jim himself) of having their ATM withdrawal limits reduced by half with no advance warning. Jim was skeptical of the explanation, namely, security problems, since he bank had previously reduced the permitted size of transfers from $10,000 to $2,000 for the same reason.

Now I can't comment on whether the limit on transfers was really security driven, but I am pretty sure the cut in ATM withdrawal limits was. Why? First, this move is almost certain to be costing Citi, and second, I've heard stories of some pretty advanced ATM hacks lately... a story I heard in my friendly bank the other day (first hand, BTW). An elderly man described how he had gone to the Bank of America to move funds from his savings account to his checking account and discovered his savings account balance was too low by $800. He immediately went to a branch officer who pulled up his transaction record. It showed that he had withdrawn $40 dollars from his checking account at an ATM, then returned 10 minutes later and withdrew $800 from his savings account via ATM from the same branch.

But the man had never gone there the second time. The bank restored the missing funds to his account.

Now here is the troubling part: The man was told that someone had managed to install a device in the ATM while pretending to make a withdrawal that enabled them to read the account information and the keystrokes when people put in their PIN. They apparently loitered in the area with a device that looked like a cellphone that was reading the data.

This activity had occurred in one particular branch in the area, but not in another, and the man was encouraged to shift his activities to a different branch. The compromising of the machines appeared to be temporary, but the targeted branch was hard by a major subway stop on three train lines, so it may have been targeted for ease of escape.

Those of you who have read Cryptonomicon won't find this implausible. The keystroke reading may be a form of Van Eck phreaking.

Now to the larger significance. Citi must be suffering from a similarly sophisticated hack; otherwise they wouldn't respond in such an extreme and invasive manner. And I am not up on the profitability of retail banking, but I guarantee you that a loss of $800 represents many years of profits on that customer. And that $800 doesn't included the cost of dealing with the upset account holder and investigating the loss. Too many incidents like that and you have a real profit problem. Yet the fact that each theft isn't large makes them costly to pursue relative to the magnitude of each theft.

Perhaps the banks will find a simple way to combat these attacks, but if fraudsters can exploit security failings in the ATMs themselves, the banks have a real problem. The solutions would probably entail either modification or replacement of the ATMs themselves, and possibly replacement of the customer's ATM cards. This would be expensive and comes at a time when banks are in no mood to undertake costly investments.

[some guy]

63. Your post reminded me

of another thread I read on DU the ther day.

This thread about a theft of $1,000 from a DUer:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=2564860

and in post 43 of the thread, a link to a way the theft can be done:

(atm scam) http://www.utexas.edu/police/alerts/atm_scam

:scared:

[Demeter]

44. Health Spending vs. Life Expectancy

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/health-spending-vs-life-expectancy.html

In case you had any doubts about the efficacy of US medical spending...


SEE THE DAMNING GRAPH AT THE LINK!

[Roland99]

45. Wow. Well, look at the prescription drug ads bombarding us every day.

I wonder if that includes elective surgical costs (all the breast enhancements and tummy tucks)?

[Demeter]

48. Such Procedures Occur In Other Countries, You Know

and no doubt for less cost, maybe even fewer complications....

[Roland99]

49. But at similar rates?

[Demeter]

50. Probably Higher

Elective surgery is becoming a popular tourist event, and a form of service export.

[Demeter]

47. "Business growth is not an end in itself"

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/business-growth-is-not-end-in-itself.html



A refreshing article in the Financial Times by Samuel Brittan reminds us that some celebrated economists envisioned continuing progress as leading not to ever-escalating levels of consumption, but to a society where improving productivity and technology would provide higher quality goods and more leisure. The French hew to that ideal (as Paul Krugman has pointed out, the French prefer to consume more vacation and less housing), although Sarkozy is doing his best to push them in the Anglo-Saxon direction.

Americans have a curious lack of perspective about our attitude towards growth, failing to recognize that our view that it is virtuous, nay, necessary, is a cultural construct rather than an economic precept. And we also place a very high priority on personal rather than collective consumption...

Now could you ever imagine in America, 45% of a local population voting to keep a social program in place, say a soup kitchen, that would attract undesirables and therefore lower real estate values? Yet a large minority of the Australians accepted that the needle exchange was a good program and the Cross was the logical place to have it, regardless of how it affected them personally.

That is a long winded way of saying some societies do not place as high a priority as ours on maximizing the personal bottom line.

From the Financial Times:

...The contention is that the economy would collapse if we ceased to demand more and more, a belief sometimes called the saturation bogey. Many practical businessmen, who have no time or inclination for political economy, suppose that we must go on churning out more and more to survive, whether or not we enjoy the process. The US president Calvin Coolidge remarked in 1926: “The chief business of the American people is business.” UK politicians used to ask what would happen when every family in the country had two cars.

The clue to the whole matter is provided, as so often, by a dictum from Adam Smith: “Consumption is the sole end and purpose of production; and the interests of the producer ought to be attended to, only so far as it may be necessary for promoting that of the consumer.” To demonstrate the falsity of the belief that we must continue to feed the productive machine with ever more ridiculous demands, let me indulge in a brief thought experiment.

Let us take a medium-sized, western economy with no major population change and negligible net migration or other problems. What might then happen if a majority of people were to turn their backs on further improvements in their real spending? The basic answer is that, in this no-growth new world, people could enjoy the fruits of technological progress with a mixture of increased leisure and a more congenial and relaxed working life. The reduction in labour input would be voluntary and completely different from what happens in an economic slump.

Some political economists have looked forward to this state of affairs. John Stuart Mill regarded what he called the “stationary state” as a delight rather than a disaster. He could not believe that the perpetual struggle to get on and elbow other people out of the way was other than a temporary phase in humanity’s progress. Keynes also looked forward to such a world (in his essay “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”) when “we shall honour the delightful people who are capable of taking direct enjoyment in things: the lilies of the field who toil not, neither do they spin.” He allowed for the persistence of a minority of people who would feel satisfaction only if their behaviour made them feel superior to their fellows, “but the rest of us would no longer feel under any obligation to applaud”.

There is another view, stated most eloquently by Joseph Schumpeter. As he put it: “Capitalism is by nature a form or method of economic change and not only never is, but never can be, stationary.”

Let us concede at once that the resulting system would not look much like capitalism as we know it. But even in such a society there would be great advantages in retaining competitive markets based on private ownership. Those who have now, belatedly, discovered Schumpeter and quote him out of context do not realise that, writing in the 1940s, he expected entrepreneurial capitalism to have died out long ago and be replaced by some variant of state socialism. He failed to see how unworkable the latter would be. Like many other seers he was an excellent analyst, but a poor prophet.

As soon as we add more realistic conditions, the saturation bogey becomes more and more remote. Even if demand for conventional consumer goods were to peak, there might still be demand for more public services and more expenditure to relieve poverty at home and abroad. Most western countries are likely to see net immigration for the foreseeable future, which would bring with it opportunities for new investment without any need for whipping up artificial needs and anxieties. This is not to speak of devoting a margin of extra production to dealing with environmental threats, whether or not of a global warming variety.

Above all – and this is what may unite the different visions – a postmodern economy will still need (that much over-used word) flexibility. It must be ready to switch resources to meet terrorist threats, outside aggression or all manner of dangers not as yet foreseen. Economic growth need not just consist of trinkets or lavish parties for billionaires.

The present danger for policymakers and opinion leaders is to confuse a straightforward economic slowdown with the saturation of wants. An economic slowdown, this year or next, would be due to now well-ventilated fears: of consumers and governments getting further into debt, and of credit risk by financial institutions. It would have almost nothing to do with a retreat from the consumer society. But it is worth examining what the latter would be like, if only to avoid misdiagnoses of our present situation.

[TrogL]

51. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-11-23 Friday, November 23 1.01143 USD
2007-11-26 Monday, November 26 1.01245 USD
2007-11-27 Tuesday, November 27 1.00321 USD
2007-11-28 Wednesday, November 28 1.00939 USD
2007-11-29 Thursday, November 29 1.00725 USD
2007-11-30 Friday, November 30 0.9993 USD
2007-12-03 Monday, December 3 1 USD
2007-12-04 Tuesday, December 4 0.989511 USD
2007-12-05 Wednesday, December 5 0.987459 USD
2007-12-06 Thursday, December 6 0.987654 USD
2007-12-07 Friday, December 7 0.994926 USD
2007-12-10 Monday, December 10 0.989805 USD
2007-12-11 Tuesday, December 11 0.989413 USD
2007-12-12 Wednesday, December 12 0.989413 USD
2007-12-13 Thursday, December 13 0.978857 USD
2007-12-14 Friday, December 14 0.98668 USD
2007-12-17 Monday, December 17 0.992851 USD
2007-12-18 Tuesday, December 18 0.989609 USD
2007-12-19 Wednesday, December 19 0.994431 USD
2007-12-20 Thursday, December 20 1.0017 USD
2007-12-21 Friday, December 21 1.00573 USD
2007-12-24 Monday, December 24 1.01307 USD
2007-12-25 Tuesday, December 25 1.01307 USD
2007-12-26 Wednesday, December 26 1.01688 USD
2007-12-27 Thursday, December 27 1.01958 USD
2007-12-28 Friday, December 28 1.02208 USD
2007-12-31 Monday, December 31 1.01204 USD
2008-01-01 Tuesday, January 1 1.01204 USD
2008-01-02 Wednesday, January 2 1.00786 USD
2008-01-03 Thursday, January 3 1.00959 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0122 1.0134 0.9976 0.9976 -0.0127 -1.26% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0110 1.0140 0.9970 1.0000 -0.0104 -1.03% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0110 1.0140        1.0101 +0.0001 +0.01% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9785 0.9785 0.9780 1.0097 +0.0002 +0.02% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9750 0.9750 0.9750 1.0086 -0.0001 -0.01% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9870 0.9870 0.9870 1.0075 -0.0004 -0.04% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        1.0064 -0.0007 -0.07% 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
ACD.H08 Mar 2008 0.8678 0.8678 0.8678 0.8678 -0.0026 -0.30%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.H08 Mar 2008  0.87625 0.87625 0.87625 -0.00215 -0.25%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.H08 Mar 2008 111.02 111.02 111.02 109.64 -0.02 -0.02%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.H08 Mar 2008 1.67790 1.67790 1.67790 1.68325 +0.00680 +0.41%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H08 Mar 2008 0.7497 0.7497 0.7445 0.7494 +0.0006 +0.08%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.H08 Mar 2008 1.45950 1.45950 1.45950 1.45900 +0.00045 +0.03%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H08 Mar 2008 159.560 159.560 158.780 158.780 -1.195 -0.74%   
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H08 Mar 2008 1.4612 1.4670 1.4612 1.4744 +0.0019 +0.13%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

ThThe March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but is trading below the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.28. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level crossing at 103.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 102.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 103.95. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 100.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.16.


Analysis

The bot's still measuring things in 100's. I'm wondering if they've switched to comparing the loonie to a basket instead of the greenback.

The loonie dropped a cent in the last hour to take it slightly below par but it's working it's way back up. My car blew its tranny and engine so I didn't listen to the morning show so I don't know what's going on yet.

Looks like the Ozzie's a bit off but the Euro's made some nice gains.

[abelenkpe]

57. OMG

Breaking News Banner on CNN says:

AP: President Bush says that while there is some concern about slowing economic growth "financial markets are strong and solid."

Gee, I feel better.:hide:

[TalkingDog]

59. "It's just a flesh wound."

Dow 12,816.60 -227.36
Nasdaq 2,514.69 -87.99
S&P 1,415.38 -31.78
10-Yr Note 103.19 +0.31





My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Roland99]

60. As strong as the worthless dollars propping them up.

[DemReadingDU]

61. Bush: Markets 'strong' despite slowing economy

President is upbeat about the economy after meeting with financial advisors.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/04/news/economy/bush_economy.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008010414


What kind of meeting did they have?
:eyes:

[hatrack]

64. It's obvious that he was meeting with his crack economic team . . .

And that they were smoking plenty of it.

Jeez, can't the guy even read a frickin' stock market crawl?

[Nickster]

65. If it's not on the Cartoon Network or Zoey 101, he doesn't care for it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. Bloodbath.

[Roland99]

67. Happy New Year! Check out these loss % today

Dow - 2% ... NASDAQ - 4% ... S&P - 2.5% (posting from phone so just giving this bit of info)

[UpInArms]

68. ending to a long painful day at the "successful" BushCo markets

Dow 12,800.18 256.54 (1.96%)
Nasdaq 2,504.65 98.03 (3.77%)
S&P 500 1,411.63 35.53 (2.46%)
10-Yr Bond 3.854% 0.047

NYSE Volume 4,166,010,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,523,323,000

4:25 pm : Before Friday's open, the stock market was indicated to open higher. We cautioned that it wasn't the most reliable indicator because we had yet to see the December employment report, which could change things in a hurry. True to form, things turned on a dime in the wake of the report, which was noticeably weaker than the market expected.

Specifically, nonfarm payrolls rose by just 18,000 positions in December, after an upwardly revised 115,000 gain in November, and the unemployment rate bumped up to 5.0% from 4.7%. Economists had been expecting a 70,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.8% unemployment rate. Separately, hourly earnings rose 0.4% (consensus +0.3%) and the average workweek was 33.8 hours, in line with expectations.

The reaction to the report was plain to see. It was decidedly negative as the payrolls number combined with the rising unemployment rate ignited recession concerns that were palpable earlier in the week following the ISM Index.

Briefing.com continues to believe the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, yet there was no sense in arguing with the very fragile market tone as many participants are fearful that a recession is inevitable.

The latter concern manifested itself in a broad-based decline that resulted in material losses for every economic sector, with the exception of the defensive-oriented utilities sector (+0.4%).

The hardest-hit area was the technology sector (-4.5%), which plummeted Friday in response to a JP Morgan downgrade of Intel (INTC 22.67, -2.00) from Overweight to Neutral and a concern that many of the technology darlings, such as Apple (AAPL 180.05, -14.88), Research In Motion (RIMM 103.35, -9.47), Google (GOOG 657.00, -28.33), Oracle (ORCL 22.03, -1.08) and Amazon.com (AMZN 88.79, -6.42), have gotten overbought given the pessimistic outlook for the U.S. economy.

As to be expected, the consumer discretionary (-3.0%) and financial (-2.9%) sectors continued to underperform amid the recession concerns. A Wall Street Journal report that several brokerages were being investigated by regulators for their dealings in collateralized mortgage obligations compounded the selling interest among the financial stocks.

In brief, participants had little appetite for owning stocks Friday as earnings estimates were being reconsidered with a negative bias. The flight out of stocks benefited Treasuries, particularly at the front end of the yield curve as the weak employment report heightened expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively at the January 30 FOMC meeting.

On Thursday, the implied probability of a 50 basis point rate cut was 34%. Following the jobs report, though, that probability doubled to 68%.

To be sure, this was not the start to the new year that bulls were hoping for. In the abbreviated week, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, S&P 400 Midcap Index, and Russell 2000 dropped 4.2%, 6.4%, 4.5%, 5.3% and 6.5%, respectively.DJ30 -256.54 NASDAQ -98.03 SP500 -35.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2484/562/2.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2447/737/1.65 bln

3:30 pm : Once again, the recovery effort fails, with the major indices falling back near their session lows. Nine of the ten sectors are negative territory, but that does not paint a full picture of how broad-based this session's decline is. Of the 157 S&P 500 industry groups, 147 are posting a loss.

At current levels, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P are down 3.8%, 6.0%, and 4.0% respectively, for the week. Tech is set to be the main laggard with a 7.4% loss, and consumer discretionary comes in second with a 6.2% loss. No sector is currently posting a gain for the week, although utilities is outperforming on a relative basis with a loss of 0.2%.DJ30 -224.35 NASDAQ -84.90 SP500 -29.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2431/565/1.97 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2425/732/1.17 bln

[MilesColtrane]

69. Classic art image.

The Death of Marat by Jacques-Louis Fisher Price.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

70. Lol.

:D