New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton

[SoxFan]

Source: Des Moines Register

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.

Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent



Read more: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?...

---

FIRED UP! READY TO GO!

[humbled_opinion]

1. Yes...

Outstanding... Ride the wave into New Hampshire then national... then President Barrack Obama...

[Le Taz Hot]

2. Geez, Iowans!

Are you even going to give Edwards a chance? I see the Machine has kicked in. Expect Hillary to win by a landslide.

[Frances]

4. I don't understand your post

The poll says that Hillary and Edwards are essentially tied while Obama is leading by several percentage points.

[Le Taz Hot]

25. All will be revealed on Thursday.

n/t

[harmonicon]

39. Thanks, Karl Rove n/t

[silverweb]

3. YES!

My daughter just called me from Ames, Iowa, where he is supposed to arrive soon, and gave me this news.

Awesome!


Happy New Year, DU!





Keepin' it fired up and ready to go!


GObama!

[pauldg0]

26. Have fun..........

I'm pretty sure this is going to be a short lived party...........

Lot's of dis-information from the Obama trolls (maybe the youngsters in College) blogging the Des Moine paper. Are they being paid or something? Anyway, I think they could be hurting Obama. You should hear some of the stuff on those blogs!!....using derogatory words such as gay, queer, faggot, sissy, asshole, stupid, bitch, and on and on directed mainly at Hillary and some on Edwards..........This discredits the Obama camps and really helps credit the positive folks who will be caucusing for John Edwards in my opinion.

I'm from Michigan and unemployed and rooting for the best man. Folks I was an Obama supporter. I don't like what I am seeing.....I can't figure it out. The Des Moines Register just endorsed Hillary a week ago...what gives?

It is all of this in a nutshell. Edwards ethically raised campaign funds that are one fourth of Obama's and Clinton's. .......He has spent 1/10 of what they pay for their ads..........He is right up there in striking range and probably could pull ahead to win.....He did this with integrity, honesty and hard work and guts...........This said, means a President EDWARDS will manage our tax dollars to help American workers back on their feet........He will bring back the poor from obscurity and save the middle class.............

.....I Pray the Caucus folks Pick a passionate and sincere JOHN EDWARDS 08.

[0007]

38. Did you like limburger cheese with your wine?

Just because The Des Moines Register endorsed Hillary means everyone else is wrong, 'eh?

[Gloria]

5. Suckers.

[jaysunb]

6. This is the poll I've been waiting for !

1) Homegrown
2) done within a week of the caucus
3) understands the caucus system--therefore asking the right questions.
4) undermines their own endorsement.

IN MY LIFE TIME !

[Capn Sunshine]

23. Dude it is THE poll

No one is changing their mind tomorrow. We've done it.
WOOT!

[jaysunb]

24. heh heh !

The beer's on me ! Call me....

Dancing in the streets ! ( Martha & The Vandellas )

[mckeown1128]

7. Gobama!!!!!

[jimlup]

8. I'm happy but wish...

it was Edwards instead. I can vote Obama in the general so this is ok. ABH!

[countmyvote4real]

9. Congrats Obama supporters. Enjoy it while it lasts.

He will not be the next POTUS. Even Oprah doesn't have enough money to buy it for him.

I'm afraid Merka is beyond change at this point. Sorry for us all.

And your little dog, too.

Happy fucking not so new year.

[bagimin]

10. Nice sentiment

jeeees

[RazBerryBeret]

11. Wow, countmyvote.......

Why so glum, chum?
It's a new year, you're bringing me down!

[AtomicKitten]

15. Welcome to DU!

and Happy New Year!

[Chipper Chat]

46. I love old theatre marquees!

But the way they have worded it may be an unintended prophecy:

"GOODWILL to all"

After Bushie gets through with "all" of us the only store we will be able to afford is the GOODWILL store.

[Recursion]

45. Welcome to DU

But be ready for some serious buzz-killers...

[Recursion]

13. Wa wa...

[boricua79]

37. LOL

I remember that skit! hahahah...good one!

http://www.buzznet.com/tags/debbiedowner/video/

[earthlover]

14. Why not drink wine instead of sour grapes?

[countmyvote4real]

21. I guess I'm just not young or well educated enough to distinguish the difference.

Please tell me we’ve not moved on to a wine discussion. I’m just saying how I see it.

If it makes you feel better, then Happy New Year and bless your heart.

peace.

oops. That made me puke, but I still managed to laugh. That's all we really have now.

[Capn Sunshine]

28. wow dude

need to borrow my .45 ?

[AtomicKitten]

12. Wonderful news.

thanks for posting

Happy New Year!

[earthlover]

16. Here's my take on the larger independent sampling....

Perhaps the Des Moisne Register's poll found who was going to caucus, and it turned out that there were lots of independents in the mix. As opposed to another method of sorting by party affiliation. In other words, what if this year more independents are going to caucus that were true for the old models for the other polls?

I don't now if this is true, but it seems at least plausible. Obama does have more support from independents. He is a fresh face. With amore positive tone. I can see why he would attract people to caucus that have not before. If so, good for Obama and good for the Democratic Party which grew as a result!

Obama has been so maligned by the Hillary herd and by Edwards for that matter for being too positive. Maybe they just didn't get it. Maybe the old way of throwing dirt is not as effective. Maybe Obama beat them with some cunning campaigning.

We will see Thursday.

I am not sure any polling this time of year can be accurate. But, from what I can tell from the demographics that usually are on vacation and hence not home to sample for polls, it is younger and better educated voters who would be under-represented in holiday polls, since these groups travel more. If this is the case, Obama's lead is even larger, since Obama has done best among better-educated and young demographics.

[ChiciB1]

17. My Take... He's Up, She's Down... Someone Will Lose, Or Maybe Not...

Polls are something that make one person feel good, and another feel not so good! I have no answer, but I have noticed, there's an extensive diversity and more polls than ever before. Tomorrow we'll hear something else.

Earlier today there was a thread saying Obama was sinking like a rock... I don't think anyone really knows, nor will be know until it's over!

Good Night, It's 2008... may this year bring America much more than it did last year! I for one want MY COUNTRY back!

[Texas_Kat]

18. A cautionary note, FWIW

My One Question About The Register Poll So Far...
Marc Ambinder
31 Dec 2007 10:24 pm
Is in its turnout assumptions: only 50% of the sample are Democrats... 40% are independents and 5% are Republicans.

This could mean two things:
1. Independents love Obama and say they're going to caucus for him but won't
2. Independents love Obama and will go to the caucus, register as Democrats, and caucus for Obama

In any event, the poll suggests that independents are asserting themselves in a way that's confounding the pollsters and the establishment.

Note: Obama's internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/12/my...

[bazoona]

35. I think this one hits the nail right on the head.

We will have to see how many of these new caucus goers and independents show up. Having been to the off year events in Iowa with very small numbers of loyal Dems,I hope there is a HUGE turn out no matter who they are supporting. Unfortunately, I won't make it because I am working in Kosovo, but an overwhelming turn out would send a message of how serious we are about bringing about a much needed change.

Go Iowa!! I will be following closely via the net.

[jamesinca]

19. Good for Obama

I have friends that went to Iowa to work for his campaign, I am happy for them.

[Bjorn Against]

20. These polls are all over the map.

We get some showing big leads for Edwards, some showing big leads for Obama, and a few showing Clinton leads. And even if these numbers were accurate they don't keep into account one very important factor, this is not a standard election it is a caucus. People change their minds at caucuses as there are numerous people lobbying them to switch sides. Polls mean nothing at this point.

[MaineDem]

32. Aren't they though!

It all comes down to turnout and final decisions.

This is going to be very interesting.

[ckramer]

22. President Obama!!!!!!

I'm sending in another check tomorrow!

[Califooyah Operative]

27. Thank You!

I'm so excited!

[still_one]

29. I hate to break this to you, but it is still too close to call /nt

[Divine Discontent]

30. shhhh

the calm before the storm is more enjoyable this way!

[indimuse]

31. WRONG!!!

Hillary is STILL ahead of Obama... Just heard it on c-span.

[Catch22Dem]

40. Oh, I didn't realize C-SPAN had spoken.

Someone go ahead and let all the pollsters know they're "WRONG" according to C-SPAN via indimuse.

[Nimrod2005]

33. Way to go Senator Obama!!!

[Maryland Liberal]

34. I guess we know why Hillary told her fans 2 lower expectations

Most likely she will finish 3rd - which is fine with me - Anbody but Hillary is fine with me. I still like Kucinich the best.

[boricua79]

36. THANK YOU IOWA!

No more political dynasties. I want something new.

[SHRED]

41. If the Dems don't choose Edwards...

...they are dumber than dumb.

I find flaws in all of the candidates but if Democrats really think Obama will get votes in the southern region of the USA, against a Republican, then they are dreaming in a very delusional way.

[Honeycombe8]

42. LOL! The south doesn't vote for Democrats to begin with. ....

Do you mean for the primaries?

The deciding states for the primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, Florida, and maybe Nevada.

Then it's over.

Clinton is best positioned to win the nomination, as we all know. But Obama has a good chance. Edwards, despite his southern roots, doesn't have much support in any state other than Iowa. I mean, let's say he wins Iowa. So...what happens then?

I've seen several pundits on TV state the obvious: A win for Edwards in Iowa virtually ensures that Clinton will win the nomination, since there's not much of anywhere else Edwards can go after that.

[David__77]

48. We don't need to win the southern states, even if you're right.

But I do think that Democrats would be better with Obama in the south. Southern whites vote heavily Republican anyway. Southern Blacks would support Obama in a big way, like they did Gore, which is why he did better than Kerry in the south.

[Kahuna]

50. Really? Could Obama possibly do worse than the last two guys..

in the south who were white men in case you didn't notice.

[krabigirl]

43. Please...NO!!! No obama!!!

Seriously....this guy will lose at a large margin...Republicans want him nominated! (My rapid right wong father is excited at the prospect...)

[davsand]

44. That is not enough of a margin to feel comfortable celebrating.

Given how the Iowa caucuses work there are still a lot of uncertain votes residing with candidates other than Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. Those votes can swing in that second round of voting, and if they organize behind any one of those top three candidates it can completely change the landscape.

I do think that it shows some very real movement that favors Obama, however, the increase is 4%--which is NOT huge. While this is encouraging news for the Obama campaign, this is far from being a given.


Laura

[alfredo]

47. What are the other polls saying, and what about the trend lines.

If this is the poll, it will be very good for him and his chances. You don't want to become complacent. Enjoy and use this poll to double down your efforts. Don't take this to mean you shouldn't be working your ass off.

I'm still undecided.

[humbled_opinion]

49. Yipeeee... Its about time... now

Ride the wave to NH and beyond....