Kenya Opposition Poised to Sweep

[Warren Stupidity]

Source: New York Times

NAIROBI, Kenya — The opposition appears to be sweeping Kenya’s elections, according to preliminary results released on Friday, with a populist challenger poised to unseat the incumbent president and several high profile ministers voted out of office.

According to partial results aired on three Kenyan television stations, Raila Odinga, a flamboyant businessman campaigning as champion of the poor, has about 57 percent of the vote, compared to less than 40 percent for Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent who is known for boosting Kenya’s economy but favoring his own tribe.

Perhaps even more telling, though, is the rising casualty count among Mr. Kibaki’s inner circle. The foreign minister, the information minister, the vice-president and more than a dozen other politicians considered to be the nucleus of Kenya’s politico-economic establishment have lost their Parliament seats and therefore their influential jobs.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/29/world/africa/29kenya.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

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Quietly, amid all the turmoil of yesterday, a peaceful revolution has occurred in Kenya.

[fascisthunter]

1. Any Info Regarding Raila Odinga, a flamboyant businessman?

Is he moderate, left, right?

"He also named his son Fidel Castro, in honor of Cuba’s president."

According too this quote, I would assume he was "left". But have no ideas where he stands politically otherwise.

[pitohui]

2. apparently the name "fidel" is not unusual

i know a man in kenya also named "fidel," the reason is because cuba sent a great many doctors to assist with childbirth in kenya villages, my friend was delivered by a cuban doctor, hence his mom chose the name "fidel" to honor the doctor and cuba, not because she was a communist

so i don't think we know anything of the businessman's politics just from that, at least i don't

[JohnLocke]

3. Info here

He's a self-described social democrat. His policy positions indicate a progressive that accepts globalization and wants to use it to better the nation.

"A charismatic outsider, he built his reputation on campaigns for democracy and the rights of the poor. Jailed for opposing Moi's one-party rule, he helped Mr Kibaki win power in 2002 but turned against him when denied the post of prime minister. He studied in East Germany, but is said to have shed his radical leanings."

http://www.raila07.com/ - Official campaign website
http://www.raila07.com/vision.html - Policy positions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raila_Odinga - Wikipedia bio
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0337c51e-b41d-11dc-a6df-0000779fd2ac.html - Financial Times article

[fascisthunter]

6. Thanks Man! (nt)

[Warren Stupidity]

4. He appears to be a populist progressive social democrat.

Here is a hint: the near total silence from the false noise machine would indicate that this was a set back for Global Corporatism.

[snappyturtle]

15. Just received the following e-mail from my friends stationed at

the Nairobi Embassy:

Hi All,
Not sure what kind of media coverage you are getting back in the states but the presidential election has had quite an effect on life in Nairobi. We are safe and the Embassy has been closed since election day in an attempt to keep everyone home. The election results were just announced with the "crooked" incumbant winning after the opponent was declared the winner earlier. The reaction to this is expected to be huge and violent with 14 deaths already occurring before the results were announced. The violence is the center of town and in the slum area. (about 10 km from us) The only effect we are feeling is the stores are empty or closed and gas stations are closed . Embassy Security continuously send updates by SMS and will not reopen the Embassy or schools until completely safe. We will be playing lots of cards and be thankful we are in the comfortable compound we are in . We have lots of beans and rice and ****** just made a mad dash for toilet paper. Kind of like being snowed in without the snow.

I don't mean to make "lite" of this situation. It is a very sad day for Kenya.

Just wanted you all to know we are safe.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe this will give you a clue as to how this is playing out. I received this e-mail, dated Dec. 30th, about thirty minutes ago.

[JCMach1]

5. My friend who is Kikuyu called him a racist idiot...

:(

[Sultana]

7. Why?

Damn! I should've been following this election, being that I lived in Kenya most my childhood.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

9. tribalism

Odinga and Kibaki are both guilty of it.

[Warren Stupidity]

11. Except Kibaki's Kikuyu are the majority while Odinga's Luo

constitute around 10% of the population. 'both men are guilty of it' seems like a rather superficial analysis of what is going on in Kenya. Odinga cannot be winning by an appeal to Luo loyalty.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

12. I didn't say he won because of tribalism

only that tribalism is responsible for the mutual resentment.

[Warren Stupidity]

13. From my rather brief research:

Odinga and Kibaki formed a coalition a few years back to unseat KANU and end that party's effective monopoly on power. Only Kibaki cut Odinga out and resumed business as usual, taking up where KANU had left off. So in a sense tribalism is at the core of the issue, but this is not simply 'my tribe against your tribe' or Kibaki would have won hands down.

[Warren Stupidity]

10. Probably because he is running against tribalist corruption.

My understanding of Kenyan politics (very limited) is that basically since independence the majority tribe (Kikuyu) has run things for their benefit through their tribe-affiliated political party. Perhaps Odinga's win represents a clear move away from tribalism. The current president Kibaki and Odinga had a falling out it seems a few years back over just this issue.

"The two front-runners put ethnicity aside five years ago, uniting to break Kanu's monopoly on power since Kenya won independence from Britain in 1963. But the spirit of co-operation survived just three years. Mr Odinga was incensed that Mr Kibaki failed to keep an alleged promise to create a prime minister position for him. He left the cabinet and hit the campaign trail.

Until recently most analysts and Western diplomats believed the incumbent Mr Kibaki would bag a comfortable win, but the latest polls show that Mr Odinga has overturned a 10-point disadvantage and the prospect of dethroning his former ally on 27 December is now in sight.

This time, both men are playing the tribal card. Mr Kibaki is a Kikuyu, the majority ethnic group which has supplied two out of three of Kenya's post-independence presidents. Mr Odinga, is a Luo, who make up just over a tenth of the population and hails from the western province of Nyanza near Lake Victoria."
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/africa/article3280455.ece

That article's claim that 'both men are playing the tribal card' is a bit unfair as Odinga's tribe represents 10% of the population, while the Kikuyu are a majority. Odinga could hardly be winning on tribal affiliation alone.

[JCMach1]

14. The tribal thing mostly... but also his world view--- if you think 'populist'

with this guy think knuckledragger, not progressive.

Closer to Pat Buchanan than Ralph Nader...

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

8. he is alot like Robert Reich

if your looking for an American ideological equivalent