STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 5, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 413 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2514 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2236 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2197
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 4, 2007

Dow... 13,248.73 -65.84 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq... 2,619.83 -17.30 (-0.66%)
S&P 500... 1,462.79 -9.63 (-0.65%)
Gold future... 807.60 +12.90 (+1.60%)
30-Year Bond 4.35% -0.01 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.89% -0.01 (-0.15%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Marathon Man 'Is it safe?'

BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

In last week's comments we pointed out that US Stock Indices were at a point where a potential stock market rally was a distinct possibility, if not a probability. While our commentaries in these pages tend to focus upon the big picture and the broad economic trends, we had noted a number of technical indicators were compressed enough to suggest a serious rally. We stated, “This is not to say that over the very short term, with stock market indices oversold, these stock indices could not experience another trading rally.” AND, “While it is again very possible to see a reasonable bounce in the American share market off an oversold condition near term, the bigger picture is one of distribution and a building top.”

Since then, the US Stock Market has indeed enjoyed a sharp trading rally with the S&P 500 moving up from a low last Monday/Tuesday of 1406 to a recent high of 1489, a gain of nearly 6% in just a few market sessions. Yet, does this really change anything? In our view the answer to that question is absolutely not. For some time, going back to the beginning of 2007, it has been clear to us that stocks were in the 8th or 9th inning of this cyclical bull. Where “Time” is concerned, you can never be too sure, but like the Pirate's Code in “Pirates of the Caribbean,” there are certain “guidelines” we can lean on to at least give us a pretty good idea.

-cut-

For the DJIA, another long term time span can be seen by comparing weekly prices with their two year moving average. We detrend the data to get a long term price oscillator which is then smoothed using a 10 week moving average. Here again, note the pendulum affect of prices moving up and down through the zero line. A couple years above the line, a couple of years below. ‘Action and Reaction’ is the name of the stock market game. Where are we now? Well, back at the same time total Time Duration seen at the 1929 high, that’s where! Nearly twice the Time Duration of the 1973 peak! In other words, “trusting” the stock market at these levels is like handing a knife over to a serial killer and hoping for the best.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

15. Dustin Hoffman: "It's Not Safe!"

That's a movie I had to walk out of--I couldn't take the waterboarding scene. The book I could read--but actually watching? Makes you wonder about the Idiots in Office.

That is a FABULOUS cartoon, by the way!

[Hugin]

19. .

n/a

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q3
Briefing Forecast 5.8%
Market Expects 5.8%
Prior 4.9%

10:00 AM Factory Orders Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.2%

10:00 AM ISM Services Nov
Briefing Forecast 55.0
Market Expects 55.0
Prior 55.8

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/30
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -452K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

16. 8:30 reports plus some pie-in-the-sky

02. U.S. 3Q manufacturing productivity revised up to 5%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

03. U.S. 3Q real hourly compensation revised down to 2.3%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

04. US 3Q nonfinancial productivity 4.2%, unit labor costs 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

05. U.S. 2Q unit labor costs revised down to -1.1% vs. 2.2%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

06. U.S. 3Q nonfarm productivity growth best in four years
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

07. U.S. 3Q unit labor costs revised down to -2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

08. U.S. 3Q nonfarm productivity revised up to 6.3% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

09. Private-sector jobs up 189,000 in November, ADP says
8:16 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 17 minutes ago

[Roland99]

17. "the service sector produced all of the jobs in November, adding 197,000 jobs."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-gained-189000-jobs-november/story.aspx?guid=%7B6147F79B%2D3DDB%2D4591%2D8387%2DB1C6B175840D%7D

According to the report, the service sector produced all of the jobs in November, adding 197,000 jobs. Employment in the goods producing sector fell by 8,000. Manufacturing jobs declined a slim 5,000.

The ADP has averaged 123,000 jobs created in the last three months, stronger than 43,000 in the period from July-Septemnber.

So, we're averaging a good 30,000 - 35,000 BELOW the equilibrium level and Nov. shows a huge jump in service jobs (uhh... Christmas shopping season bump anyone?)

Anyone taking bets on the markets taking these jobs numbers for what they really are? Cuz I'd like a nice return on my money. ;)

[UpInArms]

21. here's a more reliable source for an estimate - they say75,000

US job cuts jumped 16 pct in November -- Challenger

NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. companies announced layoffs jumped 15.9 percent last month as the economy grappled with a worsening housing slump and credit crisis, outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported on Wednesday.

Curiously, housing-related layoffs actually fell, with the auto and energy industries leading the jump in planned job cuts to 73,140 in November from 63,114 in October.

<snip>

"We probably have not seen the last of financial job cuts tied to the housing slump and the subsequent collapse in credit markets," said Chief Executive Officer John Challenger.

Economists have had a hard time explaining how employment in the housing sector has failed to drop as dramatically as home sales themselves. Some note that undocumented immigrants are often employed in this area, and their absence from the statistics may understate the damage.

The report comes as financial markets anxiously await the release on Friday of the government's payrolls data for November, which is expected to show moderation in an already lackluster labor market.

Analysts expect the economy generated about 75,000 jobs last month, down from 166,000 in October.

...more...

[fasttense]

28. Negative unit labor costs?

With productivity up, that must mean we are now paying our employers to let us work.

[Hugin]

42. It was bound to happen sooner or later...

or it means that one person is being forced to do the work of several.

Either way, it's a Supply Sider's wet dream.

[feminazi]

46. and I salute my corporate masters!!!

*

[UpInArms]

53. U.S. Nov. ISM services 54.1% vs 55.8% in Oct.

40. U.S. Nov. ISM services new orders 51.1% vs 55.7% in Oct.
10:02 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

42. U.S. Nov/ ISM services below consensus 55.0%
10:01 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

43. U.S. Nov. ISM services 54.1% vs 55.8% in Oct.
10:01 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

[UpInArms]

54. U.S. Oct. factory orders rise 0.5% on defense, metals

44. U.S. Oct. core capital equipment orders fall 2.0%
10:00 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 5 hours ago

45. U.S. Oct. factory orders ex-transport rise 0.6%
10:00 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 5 hours ago

46. U.S. Oct. factory orders ex-defense rise 0.3%
10:00 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 5 hours ago

47. U.S. Oct. factory shipments rise 1.0%
10:00 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 5 hours ago

48. U.S. Oct. factory orders rise 0.5% on defense, metals
10:00 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 5 hours ago

[UpInArms]

55. U.S. crude inventories down 8 million barrels in latest week

25. Oil rises $1.68 after U.S. stockpiles fall 8 mln barrels
10:32 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

26. U.S. gasoline inventories up 4 mln barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

27. U.S. distillate stocks up 1.4 mln barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

28. U.S. crude inventories down 8 million barrels in latest week
10:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2007 - 4 hours ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices edge up ahead of OPEC meeting

SINGAPORE - Oil prices edged up Wednesday ahead of a meeting of OPEC members who were expected to discuss a possible increase in output.

Expectations that a weekly U.S. petroleum supply report due later Wednesday would show a small decrease in crude inventories also supported prices.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery added 20 cents to $88.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midmorning in Singapore. The contract dropped 99 cents to settle at $88.32 a barrel Tuesday.

Traders have been reacting to mixed signals about whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would decide to increase production during its meeting Wednesday. On Tuesday, crude prices rose and fell throughout the session as differing statements were reported from OPEC delegates arriving in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for the meeting.

A number of reports have suggested several OPEC countries are already exceeding their output quotas.

-cut-

U.S. crude stockpiles are likely to fall by 800,000 barrels and gasoline stocks to grow by 900,000 barrels, according to an average estimate of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. OPEC to keep production steady

20 minutes ago

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates - OPEC has decided to keep output ceilings steady, Libya's chief oil official said Wednesday. Other delegates said the 13-nation group will meet again in January to review that decision.

The announcement by Shokri Ghanem appeared to reflect OPEC concerns that it would be counterproductive to raise production ceilings at a time when prices have retreated about 10 percent from recent record highs.

There was no immediate formal confirmation. But just hours before Ghanem's comments, a three-nation OPEC advisory panel foreshadowed such a decision by recommending maintaining the status quo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071205/ap_on_bi_ge/opec_meeting_16

[ozymandius]

5. Fannie Mae cutting dividend 30 percent

WASHINGTON - Fannie Mae has joined rival mortgage financer Freddie Mac in cutting its dividend and selling billions of dollars worth of special stock to raise capital to cushion against mounting losses from high-risk home loans.

Fannie Mae said Tuesday it is slicing its dividend 30 percent, to 35 cents a share, starting in the first quarter of next year, and issuing $7 billion in preferred stock this month. The action follows similar moves recently by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae's smaller government-sponsored competitor in the $11 trillion home-mortgage market.

-cut-

Washington-based Fannie Mae, which finances or guarantees one of every five home loans in the United States, last month reported a third-quarter loss of $1.4 billion while forecasting housing market woes through next year because of mounting home loan delinquencies.

-cut-

The entire $7 billion in preferred stock to be sold will not be convertible into common stock, Fannie Mae said. Converting stock into common stock dilutes the value of outstanding shares and could further depress stock prices.
------
Robust investor demand emerged last week for Freddie Mac's $6 billion offering of preferred stock, also nonconvertible, at $25 a share. The offering, said by the company to be five times oversubscribed, has been closely watched by investors gauging the extent of the housing market's turbulence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071205/ap_on_bi_ge/fannie_mae_capital

[KoKo]

40. So...who would be buying the "Preferred Stock" that "typically carries a higher dividend

:shrug: The article doesn't say what the dividend is for the "non-convertible" stock is while they've cut the dividend for their common stock. Who will keep the common stock with a lower dividend and who will buy the other..?

-----

The entire $7 billion in preferred stock to be sold will not be convertible into common stock, Fannie Mae said. Converting stock into common stock dilutes the value of outstanding shares and could further depress stock prices.

Typically, preferred stock pays a higher dividend than common stock and carries a stronger claim on the assets of a company if it goes into bankruptcy.

Robust investor demand emerged last week for Freddie Mac's $6 billion offering of preferred stock, also nonconvertible, at $25 a share. The offering, said by the company to be five times oversubscribed, has been closely watched by investors gauging the extent of the housing market's turbulence.

Fannie Mae said improved capital market conditions prompted the stock sale this month, citing "large transactions with relatively attractive terms," which it did not name.

[donkeyotay]

47. Cutting in line. What about all the existing shareholders who just had their security reduced?

Let the little people and the taxpayers cover the losses. Let Mr. Big cut in line to get whatever is left in the bankruptcy proceedings. Racketeers.

[ozymandius]

6. Home Depot to close call centers, cut 950 jobs

ATLANTA (Reuters) - Home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc (HD.N) is closing three call centers that aid its home services business, cutting about 950 jobs, a spokesman said on Tuesday.

The centers include one in Tampa, Florida, that has about 751 workers, and two smaller ones in Chicago and Dallas that each employ about 100 people. The centers work with customers to facilitate installations of doors and other products.

Though the collapsing housing market has hurt demand for bigger-ticket installed projects, Home Depot spokesman Ron DeFeo said the closures were intended to make the installation process more efficient by giving customers one local point of contact with the store instead of multiple ones.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071205/bs_nm/homedepot_callcenter_dc

[ozymandius]

7. Watch for credit card interest changes

WASHINGTON - Check your holiday credit card bills closely.

Some credit card companies are raising interest rates on good customers even if they pay down their balances, on time, every month. The reason they cite is that the customer's credit rating has fallen elsewhere.

That was a rude surprise to Janet Hard a stay-at-home mother of two teenage boys from Freeland, Mich.

Depending on her husband's salary as a steamfitter while she raised the children was financially difficult, Hard said, especially with college tuition on the horizon. To keep the family's finances in balance, Hard said she paid more than the minimum payment on her Discover card every month, plus an $8.00 Internet fee.

Or so she thought.

-cut-

The panel's chairman, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., is sponsoring legislation that would restrict credit card interest rate to certain instances — such as at the conclusion of a low, introductory rate period, contracts that have variable rates and when a cardholder violates the agreement with the issuer.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071205/ap_on_bi_ge/credit_cards

[Hugin]

23. So... The banks are going to wring their losses out of their customers?

Voluntary self-regulation? HA! It's a Supply-sider myth. :eyes:

I think I read somewhere that the Lynch Mob is parent of Discover.

"Sponsored Link Discover® Card (Official)
www.Discovercard.com Official Site. No Annual Fee. 0% Intro APR, Up to 5% Cashback."

Oh, geeze... Up pops the Google Discover Ad. :eyes:

Edit: "Cash back" is two words, IDIOTS! :eyes: (Man, I'm in a mood.)

[AnneD]

52. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I am so tired of those hypocrite Congressmen having those 'hearings' on Credit Card Companies and their interest rate shell game. They have been doing that scam since day one and if you think you can shame them into being honest....it won't work. They are greedy bastards-end of story. My suggestions is that....since the credit card industry was so insistent on that 'Bankruptcy Reform Act' that gift Congress gave them-and we are paying for...I suggest turn about is fair play. We need a Credit Reform Act. No more universal default-you have to sign in writing that you acknowledge that you have a new (higher)interest rate. You can sign on you bill, or call a main number to acknowledge receiving the info about your rate increase. And no more of this teaser crap. Make the fee structure clearly displayed. Credit cards are an open end loan alright but in any loan the rules and rates have to be spelled out-none of this arbitrary crap. I wonder, how many folks besides myself have sworn off credit cards. As more and more folks figure out their is life after cards-the harder it will be for them to sell their snake oil. The hell with the virginity pledge-my daughter's taking the no credit pledge.:spray:It is disgusting the way the fleece folks with impunity. Wonder why someone hasn't taken then to court yet. Maybe it is because they can't find an impartial jury:rofl:

Happy hunting and look out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

8. Ex-Morgan Stanley analyst and husband get 18 months

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A former Morgan Stanley (MS.N) financial analyst and her husband, an ex-hedge fund analyst at ING (ING.AS), were sentenced to a year and half each on Tuesday for insider trading.

But in an unusual twist to the case, U.S. District Judge Colleen McMahon sentenced Jennifer Wang and her husband, Ruopian Chen, to serve their sentences one after the other to allow for at least one of them to be with their infant son.

-cut-

Wang and Chen, of Englishtown, New Jersey, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and insider trading charges in September.

They were arrested in May and released on bail. Federal prosecutors accused them of trading based on material, nonpublic information that Wang obtained from Morgan Stanley, netting more than $600,000 from the scheme.

Prosecutors said the couple, from December 2005 through March 2007, traded in the securities of Town and Country Trust, Glenborough Realty Trust Inc. and Genesis HealthCare Corp., based on nonpublic information.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071205/bs_nm/insidertrading_couple_dc

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Climb; Intel, AMD, Wal-Mart Advance

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures gained as investors speculated rising computer-chip prices will boost the profit outlook for semiconductor makers. Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. advanced in Europe.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. climbed after the world's biggest retailer said it lifted its stake in Seiyu Ltd. and plans to buy the remaining shares in the Japanese chain.

Standard and Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December added 10.70 to 1,474 as of 10:05 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased 82 to 13,344. Nasdaq-100 Index futures rose 12 to 2,074.25.

-cut-

Reports today are forecast to show slowing growth in employment and the service industry, supporting speculation among some investors that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by half a percentage point next week.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders have increased bets that the Fed will lower its target rate for overnight lending between banks by half a point on Dec. 11. They see a 48 percent chance of a cut to 4 percent, compared with 40 percent yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWVdSfRIBQS0&refer=us

[UpInArms]

10. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.020 Change +0.361 (+0.48%)

Dollar - Will ADP Make or Break the Buck?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar___Will_ADP_Make_1196851655721.html

With the exception of the pound which broke the 2.0400 figure in the aftermath of soft UK housing and PMI Services data, the majors continued to quietly consolidate as markets awaited the first clues regarding the US labor outlook from the ADP survey due to be released at 13:15 GMT later today. With a 25bp rate cut from the Fed a near certainty according to fed funds futures, the only question facing market participants is whether the Fed will loosen monetary policy even further by lowering interest rates by 50bp rather 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The US employment picture may go a long way in determining Fed’s policy choice which is why today’s ADP report could be the key to wether the dollar will strengthen or weaken in the North American session. A print of less than 50K in the ADP estimate could prompt further dollar selling as traders will begin to anticipate a possible 50bp cut form the Fed.

Meanwhile, economic news from across the pond was relatively negative for both euro but especially the pound. Cable broke below the 2.0400 barrier as further weakness in the HBOS housing survey and lower than expected PMI services reading put more pressure on the BoE to cut rates at tomorrow’s meeting of the MPC. The currency market is even more convinced that BoE will loosen in light of the fact the BOC – which oversees economic fundamentals considerably stronger that those of the UK - surprised with a rate cut yesterday. However, should the BoE hold rates steady for another month cable could very well bounce as all of the late shorts put on today may be forced to cover creating a knee jerk retrace rally that could take the pair back to 2.0600

...more...

Could the Fed Really Cut by 50bp?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Could_the_Fed_Really_Cut_1196807284887.html

The lack of US economic data today led to directionless trading in the dollar which strengthened against the commodity currencies but weakened against the Japanese Yen and Euro. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 50 percent chance of a half point rate cut, which means that next week’s interest rate decision could really be a coin toss. The division of expectations is also reflected in the range bound price action in the major currency pairs because no one knows for sure how much the Fed will cut. Even though the futures market is pricing in a 50 percent chance of a half point rate reduction, the US dollar is not. The shift in expectations compared to two weeks ago is dramatic but we have not seen an equally impressive move in the currency market. If economic data continues to weaken, more currency and futures traders may be convinced that a larger rate cut is possible. The first test will be this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Tomorrow we get the most important leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, which are the Challenger Layoffs report, the ADP employment survey and the employment component of service sector ISM. So far, jobless claims and the employment component of manufacturing ISM points to a weak release which is why the current forecast is for only a 70k rise. If we have any reason to believe that the number will be even weaker, fundamentals could take the EURUSD up to our 1.50 price target. Meanwhile the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting ended today with Mideast nations leaving the door open for individual revaluations. There was no consensus reached at the meeting as the region’s 2 largest economies (Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) debated their options heatedly. Revaluations by the oil rich nations would have more symbolic than economic consequences for the US dollar.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. H&R Block Is Shutting Lending Unit

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/business/05block.html?ex=1354510800&en=508b3cb6ca6fdb50&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

KANSAS CITY, Mo., Dec. 4 (AP) — H&R Block, the tax preparer, said on Tuesday that it was closing its mortgage-lending arm after the sale of the subprime unit fell through.

The company and the equity firm Cerberus Capital Management said they had terminated their agreement, announced in April, for a Cerberus subsidiary to buy H&R Block’s lending arm, the Option One Mortgage Corporation.

H&R Block has stopped accepting mortgage applications and will lay off about 620 employees, close three offices and take a $75 million restructuring charge as it shuts operations, the company said.

The company said it would honor $30 million in existing commitments. Most of these will be eligible for sale to the government subsidized mortgage buyers, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, H&R Block said, with the rest sold to investors.

H&R Block said it would also sell its servicing business, which will result in another asset impairment charge for the quarter ended Oct. 31; the charge will be no more than $125 million. The company hired Lazard to handle that sale and said the value of the unit was being determined.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Regulators, lenders eye 5-year freeze: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071205/bs_nm/regulators_lenders_freeze_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal regulators and lenders are homing in on five years as the length of an interest-rate freeze on subprime mortgages, Bloomberg reported, citing a source familiar with the negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said he hoped a plan would be ready by week's end.

Two people familiar with the talks told Bloomberg that President George W. Bush and Paulson may announce a plan December 6.

More than 2 million subprime borrowers took out mortgages with low teaser interest rates which are due to reset sharply higher, and officials fear as many as 500,000 could lose their homes because they're unable to make the higher payments.

...more...

[Hugin]

31. Just so long as it's after Nov 2008, guys.

Way to stick up for the average joe! :sarcasm:

[donkeyotay]

51. Will we all get the teaser rate for the next 5 years?

Everyone with a fixed mortgage? Will this get passed through to renters? will the mortgage makers subsidize these rates, or will the cost get passed through to taxpayers as congress continues to make the middle class pay for corporate profits?

[Hugin]

56. Update: Bush administration reaches mortgage deal -- AP via MSNBC.

"Agreement with industry to freeze rates on certain subprime loans"

"WASHINGTON - Congressional aides say the Bush administration has hammered out an agreement with industry to freeze interest rates for certain subprime mortgages for five years in an effort to combat a soaring tide of foreclosures.

These aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details have not yet been released, said the five-year moratorium represented a compromise between desires by banking regulators for a longer time frame of as much as seven years and industry arguments that the freeze should only last one to two years."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22116043/

________________________________________________________________

No comment.

[UpInArms]

13. Two Insurers Increase Bet on Medicare

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/business/05insurance.html?ex=1354510800&en=93453c9653759592&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

With the commercial health insurance business in the doldrums, UnitedHealth, the nation’s biggest medical insurer, and Humana, the No. 4 player, have bet heavily on the federal Medicare program.

Their biggest gamble involves the lucrative Medicare Advantage part of the business: doctor networks that are managed by the insurers, in contrast to regular Medicare in which members can choose virtually any doctor, who is paid directly by the government.

One in five of the nation’s 43 million Medicare enrollees is now in the Medicare Advantage program, which the Bush administration says has brought more choices and better benefits to the federal health system. And if Humana and UnitedHealth have their way, tens of thousands more will be attracted to Medicare Advantage during the enrollment period now under way.

“Given the aging of the baby boomers, it will be a growth opportunity for many years to come,” Humana’s chief executive, Mike McAllister, told analysts recently.

But Medicare Advantage has become a political target, because — whatever its vaunted enhancements — it costs the federal government 12 percent more for each enrollee, on average, than the regular Medicare system.

...more...

[TrogL]

48. errrr...wait a minute

...doctor networks that are managed by the insurers, in contrast to regular Medicare in which members can choose virtually any doctor, who is paid directly by the government...costs the federal government 12 percent more for each enrollee...

Isn't this from the same people who criticize the British system, claiming you can't pick your own doctor, and the Canadian system, claiming it's more expensive?

[UpInArms]

14. Fund Crisis in Florida Worrisome to States

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/business/05invest.html?ex=1354510800&en=1bf6de4e9728d936&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Top Florida officials moved yesterday to stabilize an investment pool for local governments after a multibillion-dollar run prompted the state to temporarily suspend withdrawals by cities and school districts.

Local governments, which have been unable to remove any money from the fund since Nov. 29, will be allowed to start making limited withdrawals as early as tomorrow, officials said. The turmoil has left some towns and school districts unable to meet payrolls or pay bills and has raised concerns about similar funds across the country.

Florida’s governments in recent weeks have withdrawn billions of dollars from the fund because of concern over investments linked to subprime mortgages. It is unclear what losses the fund may sustain.

But the sudden flight from the fund, which came despite its relatively small exposure to subprime-related debt, points to a broader uncertainty among officials in other states over how far the credit and mortgage crisis might spread.

<snip>

Moments after the plan was approved, Coleman Stipanovich, the executive director of the Florida State Board of Administration, which operates the fund, resigned.

...more...

[Robbien]

20. Atrios is reporting on a California fund which is in the same situation

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Orange County, California, bankrupted in 1994 by bad bets on interest rates, bought structured investment vehicles similar to those that caused a run on funds invested by local governments in Florida.

Twenty percent, or $460 million, of the county's $2.3 billion Extended Fund is invested in so-called SIVs that may face credit-rating cuts, said Treasurer Chriss Street. In all of its funds, the county holds a total of $837 million of SIV debt
http://atrios.blogspot.com/2007_12_02_archive.html#7559096903795378880

Something similar can probably be expected in all fifty states.

[DemReadingDU]

29. more from Bloomberg

12/5/07

Orange Country joins a growing list of state and local governments at risk of losing money from investments sold as high-yielding havens that have been contaminated by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Florida, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Montana, Maine and King County, Washington also have disclosed investments in SIVs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afpq.tBYeEO4&refer=us

[Robbien]

30. Thanks for the info. So seven states so far have ridden the SIV trainwreck

Perhaps just the tip of the ice burg I expect since Texas hasn't weighed in. And with the crooks in control of Texas it is impossible to believe they are not up to their butts in this stuff.

[UpInArms]

18. Merrill gives new CEO $2.6 mln in replacement stock

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0559523120071205

NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc's (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) new Chief Executive John Thain has received about $2.6 million in restricted stock and nearly 43,000 options to replace shares he forfeited by leaving NYSE Euronext (NYX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), according to U.S. regulatory filings.

Thain, who became Merrill chairman and CEO on Dec. 1, gets 46,304 shares of Merrill restricted stock that will vest over the next three years. Thain also received 42,815 stock options to replace forfeited NYSE Euronext stock-based compensation.

Thain's replacement shares are in addition to the 500,000 restricted shares and 1.8 million stock options he received for joining Merrill.

His signing bonus was $15 million.

...more...

:wtf:

[Hugin]

27. Not to worry...

They'll shake down some single-mom without health insurance to cover it. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

22. Worker sentiment index hits record low in November

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0554171720071205

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Worker confidence stumbled to a record low in November, reflecting growing pessimism over jobs and personal finances stemming from housing and credit troubles, a survey released on Wednesday shows.

The Hudson Employment Index dropped to 91.9 points, the lowest ever for this gauge. The November reading was lower than the 100.8 in October and 105.3 a year ago.

"Simply put, U.S. workers are worried that job growth is going to slow significantly in the coming months," Robert Morgan, co-president of recruitment and talent management at job placement firm Hudson Highland Group (HHGP.O: Quote, Profile, Research), said in a statement.

Economists also downgraded their view on the U.S. labor market; they expect companies likely added 75,000 jobs last month, less than half of the amount in October, according to a recent Reuters poll.

...more...

and here's the Hudson chart:

http://www.hudson-index.com/

[UpInArms]

24. 9:40 EST markets are jumpin' and bumpin' with the pie-in-the-sky lie

Dow 13,364.08 115.35 (0.87%)
Nasdaq 2,649.28 29.45 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,476.90 14.11 (0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 3.93% 0.041

NYSE Volume 221,001,500
Nasdaq Volume 148,966,937.5

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +25.0.

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +25.3. S&P and Nasdaq futures extend their gains. Third quarter productivity was revised upward to a 6.3% annual rate from a previously reported 4.9%. Crude oil is up 1.7% to $89.76 after OPEC decided not to increase output. The government’s weekly energy report is slated for release at 10:30 ET.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.5. Futures trade in a choppy manner after the November ADP employment report showed nonfarm private employment grew at 189K on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the consensus estimate that called for a reading of 50K.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.0. Futures point to a higher start despite Fannie Mae (FNM) cutting its dividend and OPEC deciding to not raise output. The higher open is being supported by the prevailing view the Fed will cut interest rates again, supported by an article in the WSJ that didn’t question if the Fed will cut rates again, but by how much. Separately, positive analyst calls on Dow components United Technologies (UTX) and Intel (INTC), a report that the subprime mortgage rescue plan could involve freezing teaser rates for as long as five years, and a smattering of better than expected earnings news from certain retailers are also contributing to the positive bias.

[Roland99]

26. Jump, Jive, an' Wail!

Baby, baby it looks like its gonna hail
Baby, baby it looks like its gonna hail
You better come inside
Let me teach you how to jive and wail

You gotta jump, jive, and then you wail
You gotta jump, jive, and then you wail
You gotta jump, jive, and then you wail
You gotta jump, jive, and then you wail
You gotta jump, jive, and then you wail away!

[Roland99]

25. 9:42am - Deck the halls with boughs of options...

Dow 13,370.58 +121.85
Nasdaq 2,653.60 +33.77
S&P 500 1,477.87 +15.08
Oil $89.45 $1.13
10 YR 3.94% 0.05
Gold $802.10 $-5.50

[antigop]

32. Who wants to run Citi? (ooh, ooh, pick me, pick me!)

http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/12/05/who-wants-to-run-citi/

Does anyone want to be CEO of Citi (C)? If so, speak up. Josef Ackerman of Deutsche Bank (DB) is the latest high-profile banking executive to shy away from taking the top job at the financial titan, according to reports in Bloomberg and the FT. Other top financial execs who have indicated they aren’t interested include U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and former Wells Fargo chief Dick Kovacevich, the FT reported.

It’s easy to see why people aren’t exactly rushing to get in line for interviews with Citi’s executive search committee. The bank has already been rocked by multibillion-dollar writedowns on its holdings of toxic mortgage-related securities called collateralized debt obligations. It was the announcement last month that Citi would take a hit as large as $11 billion that finally led to former CEO Chuck Prince’s resignation, after investors spent months calling for his scalp.

Some analysts believe Citi’s CDO headache is due to get worse, however, with some analysts saying Citi’s losses could total $26 billion. As huge as that number is, it leaves aside the issue of how Citi deals with its exposure to other kinds of risky debt known as structured investment vehicles and conduits. While rival HSBC (HBC) is dealing responsibly with its own SIV problems by taking the vehicles onto its balance sheet, Citi is still hoping to delay the inevitable pain from the SIV mess by subscribing to Paulson’s SIV troubled bailout plan. Meanwhile, the bank has just launched into a second wave of cost-cutting, hoping to finally bring its expenses down as its earnings power weakens.

Hey, give me a huge signing bonus and a contract with a golden parachute without a performance clause. Where do I sign?

[Hugin]

33. Ah, I can see it now...

I'd be just like MAJ Kong riding the bomb alllll the way down!

YEEEHAW!

Edit to add: :nuke:

[antigop]

34. In the meantime, take your signing bonus, stash it offshore, then retire in style! n/t

[Hugin]

35. ... and spend my golden years tinkering with Alternative Energy schemes...

Sounds like a plan, antigop. :thumbsup:

[antigop]

36. Send them your resume. n/t

[Hugin]

39. Oh, you first!

I insist. You spotted the end of this rainbow. :)

But, on my resume, I'll list all of the fine enterprises I've participated in driving firmly into the ground...
The vast list starting with AOL/Time-Warner. :)

[antigop]

43. Prag, thanks for the levity. I needed that. n/t

[Roland99]

38. Paul Wolfowitz is free. Didn't he work there before?

[Zynx]

49. It's actually relatively easy.

Break up the company into its respective components and use the proceeds to re-capitalize the bank.

[antigop]

57. Send in your resume! n/t

[Roland99]

37. 11:16am - More tinsel please!

Dow 13,415.61 166.88
Nasdaq 2,665.57 45.74
S&P 500 1,482.24 19.45
Oil $89.90 $1.58
10 YR 3.93% 0.05
Gold $802.00 $-5.60

[Hugin]

41. ...

Where do you get the quotes you post? I'd like to keep it consistent... (and I think Comstock is getting
uppity about people spreading theirs around as I've done in the past.)

[Roland99]

44. MarketWatch

www.marketwatch.com


sometimes I switch some rows around to make it easier to set the colors.

[TrogL]

50. x-rates and ino

[TrogL]

45. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD
2007-11-08 Thursday, November 8 1.07492 USD
2007-11-09 Friday, November 9 1.06553 USD
2007-11-12 Monday, November 12 1.06553 USD
2007-11-13 Tuesday, November 13 1.03745 USD
2007-11-14 Wednesday, November 14 1.0408 USD
2007-11-15 Thursday, November 15 1.01999 USD
2007-11-16 Friday, November 16 1.02807 USD
2007-11-19 Monday, November 19 1.01636 USD
2007-11-20 Tuesday, November 20 1.01543 USD
2007-11-21 Wednesday, November 21 1.01071 USD
2007-11-22 Thursday, November 22 1.01071 USD
2007-11-23 Friday, November 23 1.01143 USD
2007-11-26 Monday, November 26 1.01245 USD
2007-11-27 Tuesday, November 27 1.00321 USD
2007-11-28 Wednesday, November 28 1.00939 USD
2007-11-29 Thursday, November 29 1.00725 USD
2007-11-30 Friday, November 30 0.9993 USD
2007-12-03 Monday, December 3 1 USD
2007-12-04 Tuesday, December 4 0.989511 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9820 0.9880 0.9820 0.9872 +0.0014 +0.14% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 0.9825 0.9884 0.9825 0.9881 +0.0024 +0.24% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9876 0.9880 0.9876 0.9876 +0.0013 +0.13% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9883 0.9883 0.9883 0.9883 +0.0022 +0.22% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9875 0.9875 0.9875 0.9875 +0.0018 +0.18% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9871 0.9871 0.9870 0.9870 +0.0017 +0.17% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9870 0.9870        0.9870 +0.0021 +0.21% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007     0.8754  0.8754  0.8754  0.8842  +0.0031  +0.35%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007     0.88150 0.88150 0.87600 0.87215 -0.00915 -1.05%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007     108.87  108.87  108.87  108.87  +0.68    +0.63% 
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007             1.68450 1.68450 1.69250 +0.02785 +1.65%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007     0.7111  0.7179  0.7111  0.7179  +0.0077  +1.07%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007     1.47000 1.47000 1.47000 1.49685 +0.03025 +2.02%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007     162.260 162.460 162.160 162.400 +0.455   +0.28%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007     1.48320 1.48360 1.48320 1.47700 +0.01005 +0.68%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 97.99. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 97.84.

Analysis

CBC drive-in guy says that Ontario manufacturers are lobbying the Feds to deliberately drop the loonie 'cause it's messing up the balance of trade. Their stuff's just too expensive (in greenbacks) to sell across the border.

Alberta will not be pleased. :nuke::nuke::nuke::nuke::nuke:

Be that as it may, it's been climbing all morning.

[TrogL]

58. Closing numbers

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9820 0.9880 0.9820 0.9843 -0.0015 -0.15% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 0.9825 0.9884 0.9825 0.9843 -0.0014 -0.14% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9876 0.9882 0.9855 0.9848 -0.0015 -0.15% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9883 0.9883 0.9883 0.9846 -0.0015 -0.15% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9871 0.9875 0.9871 0.9843 -0.0014 -0.14% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9871 0.9871 0.9870 0.9840 -0.0013 -0.13% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9870 0.9870 0.9870 0.9836 -0.0013 -0.13% 

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at .9733 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 99.56. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.35. First support is today's low crossing at 98.50 then the 75% retracement level crossing at 97.33.


Analysis

Yeah, pretty much what I expected. They've pulled the run out from under it and it hasn't gotten around to looking down.

[UpInArms]

59. ponies and candy for everyone! just don't read the fine print or between the lines

Dow 13,444.96 196.23 (1.48%)
Nasdaq 2,666.36 46.53 (1.78%)
S&P 500 1,485.01 22.22 (1.52%)
10-Yr Bond 3.911% 0.022

NYSE Volume 3,702,189,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,283,431,000

4:25 pm : The stock market rallied on Wednesday with large-cap tech stocks leading the way, snapping a two-day losing streak. There was some uncertainty late in the trading day, but the indices finished near their best levels of the session following a late-day surge.

A bullish bias was present in the early-going as investors banked on at least a 25 basis point cut to the fed funds rate on Dec. 11. Stocks received a further boost from a number of better than expected economic reports.

The economic report receiving the most attention today was the ADP employment estimate. The reading showed that November private payrolls increased by a very strong 189,000, more than triple the consensus expectation. This estimate is often well off the mark, but as a general indicator has been fairly good. It suggests Friday's nonfarm payroll increase will be above the current median forecast from economists of 70,000.

Third quarter productivity was revised upward to a 6.3% annual rate from a previously reported 4.9%.

Other good news comes in the form of November factory orders. This figure, which comprises the already released durables orders (with a revision) and nondurables orders, was up 0.5%.

The November national ISM survey of non-manufacturing conditions dipped to 54.1 from 55.8 in October. This compares to an expected level of about 55. A reading above 50 is intended to reflect growth. That isn't a significant variance from expectations.

The rally was nearly derailed midday,though, after Moody's came out and rang some alarm bells regarding bond insurers' capital positions and the potential for MBIA's (MBI 27.42, -5.21) triple-A credit rating to be cut. Stocks traded in a choppy manner following the report, but eventually staged a late day comeback. However, shares of insurers MBIA and Ambac (ABK 23.52, -2.30) still got clipped.

In corporate news, following in Freddie Mac's (FRE 34.67, +2.36) footsteps, Fannie Mae (FNM 36.13, +0.95) said last night it will take steps to shore up its capital position as it prepares to deal with ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Specifically, Fannie Mae will cut its quarterly dividend, beginning in the first quarter, from $0.50 to $0.35, and it will sell $7 billion in non-convertible preferred stock in one or more offerings in December.

Of the nine sectors trading higher, tech (+2.5%) showed the most strength. The sector benefited from the outperformance of several large-cap tech names, in part due to Intel (INTC 27.22, +0.91) getting upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel based on evidence of above average seasonal personal computer demand going into 2008. Financials (+2.0%) finished second.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.3%) was the main laggard after shares of Comcast (CMCSA 18.92, -1.81) got pummeled after the company lowered its revenue guidance.

Oil traded in a choppy manner and finally finished down $0.83 at $87.49. Oil spiked overnight on news that OPEC decided not to increase output due to economic concerns. Later in the day, the government's weekly energy report showed inventories dropped much larger than expected. Normally, it would be expected that oil would rally on these bullish reports. While oil prices held up following the report, they eventually pulled back as the day progressed and ended the session lower.

Presumably, the slide was due to both distillate and gasoline inventories showing larger than expected builds, and the key oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, also showing a build. In addition, there was speculation that Saudi Arabia will increase crude output despite the OPEC decision. The dollar index spiked 1.06% today, which may have also aided in pushing oil prices lower.DJ30 +196.23 NASDAQ +46.53 NQ100 2.0% R2K 1.8% SP400 1.5% SP500 +22.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 976/2006/2.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 842/2427/1.35 bln