Could U.S. military gains in Iraq outlast Bush? [leave office without failture?}

[rodeodance]

Source: reuters




Could U.S. military gains in Iraq outlast Bush?

By David Morgan
59 minutes ago



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With an intensifying White House race drawing attention to his legacy, President George W. Bush could leave office without the baggage of complete failure in Iraq thanks to new U.S. military gains, some analysts say.



American success at quelling sectarian and insurgent violence has raised hopes that the relatively calmer conditions of the past few months in Iraq might last into early 2009, when the next U.S. president takes over.

"The overall prediction has to be that George Bush will escape this without an obviously visible abject failure. It may become that again over time. But right now, it looks like Bush will escape by the skin of his teeth," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.

O'Hanlon, who drew attention last July when he expressed optimism about the U.S. mission in Iraq in a New York Times column, estimates the odds of a major deterioration during Bush's remaining 14 months in office at less than 50 percent.


Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071117/pl_nm/iraq_usa_bush...

[rodeodance]

1. yes, more will die, but Bush will leave office with a grim victory=by stalling for the next year

....O'Hanlon said he believed the less violent conditions are likely to endure until Bush leaves office, despite the planned withdrawal of 20,000 U.S. combat troops by next July.

"It'll still be a lot of people getting killed," he said. "But the trajectory we're on is for muddling along into some type of gradually improving semi-stability."

O'Hanlon is not alone in expectations for Bush to achieve a grim victory by avoiding the worst of Iraq legacies.

"The Bush administration has managed to basically gain enough time to come to the end of the administration without any serious deterioration in Iraq," said Joost Hiltermann, a long-time critic of Bush policy in Iraq at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

[dbt]

2. What a *steaming* load of

horse shit!

[rodeodance]

4. it is. yet the msm will and has been selling this a victory for the military and therefore for Bush.

[Benhurst]

7. Amen! Corporate news bullshit.

[leftchick]

9. it sure is

mass graves, divided cities, 4 million refugees, over a million dead! No reconstruction and no services. Some fucking success!

[armodem08]

12. Yeah, tell me about it.

I can't believe they still think that O'Hanlon can analyze objectively. He has forever been for the war, but publicly "skeptical" of it. Bush will forever be remembered for Iraq.

[Red Zelda]

3. Military gains???

Fuck that. Thousands are dead. Half a trillion dollars have been wasted. This insipid war was completely unnecessary.
If anyone wants to sit and masturbate into a flag over fucking scant "military gains," may their own sorry American ass blow up next. This is a fucking tragedy. Leave it to Dumbfuckistan and media types to ponder "military gains" in the face of such carnage.

[rodeodance]

14. military is their focus--they know maliki is worthless. so it is stay the course for now

[TwilightGardener]

5. When a guy burns a house down, do you give him praise and credit

for helping the firemen toss a few buckets of water on it? He's already an abject failure, no matter WHAT happens--it was a needless war waged for insidious reasons. He killed 4000 of our soldiers, and many more Iraqis. I have no doubt he'll burn in hell, so I'm not too worried about his short-term "legacy".

[baldguy]

6. Failure is staying there. Leaving is success.

But for the bushies, failure - having a permanent military presence in the ME - is the objective.

[KansDem]

8. I guess we would have to define "military gains."

American success at quelling sectarian and insurgent violence... So we create the problem then "solve" it with our military? Is that the way I read this? And is that what is meant by "military gains?"

What about "political gains?" Just a few days ago, the BBC reported on Iraqi women who are being murdered because they are not wearing their veils or are wearing makeup. The report stated that Iraqi police are too scared to follow through with investigations, so the murderers go unpunished. Bush says we're in Iraq now to train the Iraqi police to take over after we've left. Bush has been in Iraq over 4 fucking years and the police are now "too scared" to investigate these crimes. I don't think that's much of a "gain," militarily or otherwise.

I suppose we'll have to wait and see how CorpMedia spins it.

[xchrom]

10. so he'll leave office with a cluster fuck Y big -- but not X big

and we will call that a success?

what about the devastation to our economy?

what about the revelations of how much money was really poured into this war?

what about the costs of american wounded as they begin to become more widely known?

what about the lasting resentments and lack of reconciliation inside iraq?

and on and on...

[pdefalla]

11. The tool speaks

This is the best O'Hanlon can do? Bush will escape without "abject failure"? Not much of a legacy.
But you also must consider the source.
Michael O'Hanlon is a signatory to PNAC. So as far as he's concerned, just the fact that we have invaded and occupied Iraq is a huge victory. He'll try to put lipstick on it, but the fact remains that Bush is responsible for the major destabilization of the middle east and tens of thousands of deaths, and nothing to show for it but a 3.5 TRILLION dollar charge to our Banco de Bejing credit card.

[AX10]

13. True. O'Hanlon is no "moderate".

He's a Neo-Con.

[daleo]

15. Deaths are down slightly, for a short while

That's a military gain?

It's like saying you are cured of cancer because the tumor isn't spreading as fast as it used to.

[CANDO]

16. The supposed quelling of violence is just that they are segregated now.

The Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds have all but cleansed themselves from one another. On the surface, it looks like success. But they are setting this up for violence for generations to come. And then it becomes another Bosnia situation.

[Didereaux]

17. District 'cleansing' is done...Regional 'cleanising' next. Iraq must split just like...

Iraq,being the largest remaining 'fictitious' nation from WWI(yes the 1st WW) will/must split into its ethnic parts before even a semblance of stability will arise. Even then you are faced with the Kurdish problem which will entail Turkey, Iran and whatever the Kurds choose to call their little niche in north Iraq.

But the stupidity of Americans must never be underestimated and you can be assured that whoever is in power politically in this country at the time of such conflicts, will make exactly the wrong decision. We have a 100% record in disregarding history.

[Trajan]

18. It failed from the moment they crossed the border ....

No matter WHAT happens .....

The 'failure' is a million casualties and a TRILLION of public dollars lost .... for nothing ....

That cannot be undone ....

[gulliver]

19. It's a massive failure already.

Things are worse in the Middle East than when Bush and the Republicans started the war. All this territory and stability is lost for a generation to the jihadists and malcontents. And this debacle was bought dear. We have less than nothing as the return for spending our country to death. That's abject failure.

[Danger Mouse]

20. Wishful thinking for the right, but it'll never happen.

Bush is an abject failure for many more reasons than simply Iraq. Iraq could erupt into a peaceful democracy tomorrow and Bush would still be remembered by anyone with half a brain as the colossal failure that he truly is.

[Solly Mack]

21. That article is so full of shit I can actually see vapors emanating from it

[IndianaGreen]

22. What delusional success is David Morgan alluding to?

Here are the hard facts: US LOST the war in Iraq, and is about to LOSE the war in Afghanistan.

Here is another hard fact: If US attacks Iran, then US will LOSE the entire Middle East forever.