Experts Doubt Drop In Violence in Iraq - Military Statistics Called Into Question

[RamboLiberal]

Source: Washington Post

The U.S. military's claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months has come under scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends.

Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration's claim that its war strategy is working. In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks. According to senior U.S. military officials in Baghdad, overall attacks in Iraq were down to 960 a week in August, compared with 1,700 a week in June, and civilian casualties had fallen 17 percent between December 2006 and last month. Unofficial Iraqi figures show a similar decrease.

Others who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers -- most of which are classified -- are often confusing and contradictory. "Let's just say that there are several different sources within the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree," Comptroller General David Walker told Congress on Tuesday in releasing a new Government Accountability Office report on Iraq.

Senior U.S. officers in Baghdad disputed the accuracy and conclusions of the largely negative GAO report, which they said had adopted a flawed counting methodology used by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Many of those conclusions were also reflected in last month's pessimistic National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. "If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian," the official said. "If it went through the front, it's criminal."

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/05/AR2007090502466_pf.html

[Kagemusha]

1. That last paragraph deserves a response...

In and of itself, it is not at all nuts to view bullets through the back of the head as sectarian. The bullets in the back of the head are a trademark of Shiite death squad killings and send a strong message that the killings were probably done by members of the Iraqi police, army or other "security" forces. That is not the problem. The shootings in the back of the head are a well recognized sign of Shiite on Sunni death squad activity.

The problem is in classifying the bullets to the front of the head as if they therefore must be 'criminal' in nature. That's a bit more of a reach... quite a bit more.

[tabasco]

15. If you don't think classifying deaths by where a bullet entered the head isn't nuts,

then you're nuts. This is complete, unmitigated lies and obfuscation.

If the military is unable to determine the number of deaths by military action without examining head wounds then things are even more fucked up than anybody thinks. But the military is quite able to determine the number of deaths from military action. Just like we have done in every fucking war in history. This is just the Bushbots trying to push numbers into different columns to fool dumbass republican voters and give Bush his sound bites. There is zero credibility from the upper ranks right now. These are the same people who told us about the "fierce firefight" to rescue Jessica Lynch.

You have to be a gullible fool or a troll to say these classifications make any sense.

[SaveAmerica]

2. This is the one to print out, pass on, forward, Sept 15, games over, bring them home

[skip fox]

3. Links to data. Send me more if you have prior to Sept. 11.

Please send useful data links to me: [email protected] and I'll add prior to the report on the Iraq War on Sept. 11. (SurgeGate)

This is primarily a list of hot links DUers can use to put the "surge" in perspective by giving valuable data on the war, it costs in lives, blood, and treasure for both the Americans as well as the Iraqis and contractors. PLEASE SEND MORE LINKS AND I WILL ADD THEM and periodically re-post this document in expand form. It should be easy to use.

Prelminary important data from http://icasualties.org/oif / (see below).

Deaths: | US/UK | Iraqi

9/06   | 75   | 3539
10/06  | 108 | 1539
11/06  |  76  | 1864
12/06  | 113 | 1752
1/07   |  86  | 1802
2/07   |  84  | 3014
3/07   |  84  | 2977
4/07   | 116  | 1821
5/07   | 129  | 1980
6/07   | 108  | 1345
7/07   |  88  | 1690
8/07   | 87 | 1674

(Iraqi deaths are civilians and soldiers.)

NOTE: Whereas American and UK deaths in July and August declined by nearly 21 from the average of the previous two months (128 & 108), Iraqi deaths increased by almost 20 during the same month over the average of the previous two months (1,345 & 1,690). That makes the overall death rate pretty level from May to the present.




LIST OF LINKS TO STATISTICS


CAUSUALITY STATS:



Iraq Coalition Casualty Count provided the list at the top of this page and is a great first place to go for reliable data

http://icasualties.org/oif /


It has a number of tables charting such things as numbers of deaths (by time and country) medical evacuations (by service), wounded (by week), and so forth. A Great site for collecting initial stats. It also contains links to fatalities and injuries by state, services, etc., and one to contractor causalities.



Military Deaths in the Conquest of Iraq

http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/USfatalities.html

Provides two fine graphs showing number of US deaths since March 2003. One is a bar graph giving a month-by-month number of killed. The top one shows the total number of deaths which notes several relevant historical occurrences.

The second shows that the surge’s success in terms of numbers is effective only if you focus on a few months:






US Causalities in Iraq

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm

Provides a table for a month-by-month list of the numbers of US dead and wounded and two bar graphs below it which the some information in visual form. (Herein you can note that some of the summer months have had the fewest causalities. It's probably has hard to kill in 114 degree heat as it is to do anything else.)





OVERALL STATS:


From the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings' The Iraq Index
http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex
attempts to provide "a statistical compilation of economic, public opinion, and security data. . . . updated information on various criteria, including crime, telephone and water service, troop fatalities, unemployment, Iraqi security forces, oil production, and coalition troop strength." It has hundreds of graphs in a month-by-month statistical assement of the war in pdf. format which provide very nuanced (and valuable for someone willing to dig) including such things as numbers of Iraqis and foreign nationals kidnapped, reporters killed, deaths from multiple-causality bombs, estimated strength of insurgency, etc. Extremely valuable!


Asia Times on Line's article ("Dispaches from America: Escalation in Iraq by the Numbers") by Tom Engelhardt
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IH15Ak03.html
Provides a list of numbers of troops, attacks, contractors, companies, prisoners, electrical blackouts as well as such things as projected costs, temperatures, availability and cost of water, Iraqi government stats and amount of oil, etc. In short, although is not presented in tables or graphs, it provides data to help determine the total context of the war. A very valuable collection of information that will aid to see the full picture.






STATS ON IRAQI RESOURCES:

The Oxfam Report on Resources Iraqi resources
http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/conflict_disasters/bp105_iraq.html
provides a list of list of percentages related to the current conditions for Iraqi citizens concentrating on the availability of food, water, sanatation, shelter and so forth as well as their employment figures.

Are there stats on refugees???


Thanks to all who have provided links. Please send more. I'll annotate (as above) and add. Think of the value of the following types of information:
# of Iraqi refugees leaving country
# of Iraqi refugees internally displaced
# of IED attacks on American/Coalition Forces# of Iraqis kidnapped and tortured, found dumped

[Supersedeas]

4. More voodoo number from the Admin about Iraq....the pattern continues

[rodeodance]

5. Experts Doubt Drop In Violence in Iraq- Military Statistics Called Into Question

Source: wp

Experts Doubt Drop In Violence in Iraq
Military Statistics Called Into Question

By Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 6, 2007; Page A16

The U.S. military's claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months has come under scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends.

Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration's claim that its war strategy is working. In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks. According to senior U.S. military officials in Baghdad, overall attacks in Iraq were down to 960 a week in August, compared with 1,700 a week in June, and civilian casualties had fallen 17 percent between December 2006 and last month. Unofficial Iraqi figures show a similar decrease.


Others who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers -- most of which are classified -- are often confusing and contradictory. "Let's just say that there are several different sources within the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree," Comptroller General David Walker told Congress on Tuesday in releasing a new Government Accountability Office report on Iraq.

Senior U.S. officers in Baghdad disputed the accuracy and conclusions of the largely negative GAO report, which they said had adopted a flawed counting methodology used by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Many of those conclusions were also reflected in last month's pessimistic National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/05/AR2007090502466.html?hpid=topnews

[habitual]

6. big Kick and R for keeping the light on their darkness.

they want to lie and deceive us so bad. It must really make them angry when others don't let them get away with it.

[Jim__]

7. Since it appeared in the Washington Post, we can expect our Democratic representatives to read it.

It should stiffen their spine when Petraeus appears before them.

[rodeodance]

8. 'Wash Post': Military 'Cherry-Picking' Facts to Prove Violence Down in Iraq

Forum Name General Discussion
Topic subject 'Wash Post': Military 'Cherry-Picking' Facts to Prove Violence Down in Iraq
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1747309#1747309
1747309, 'Wash Post': Military 'Cherry-Picking' Facts to Prove Violence Down in Iraq
Posted by 133724 on Thu Sep-06-07 01:31 PM

NEW YORK With the "surge" report due next week, the U.S. military's claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months "has come under scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends," The Washington Post's Karen DeYoung reveals today.

The Post carries her detailed report on page A16. "Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration's claim that its war strategy is working," DeYoung observes. But she adds: "Others who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers -- most of which are classified -- are often confusing and contradictory. 'Let's just say that there are several different sources within the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree,' Comptroller General David Walker told Congress on Tuesday in releasing a new Government Accountability Office report on Iraq."

[Supersedeas]

9. manipulation, spin, and propoganda -- Bushist version of government by oligarchy

[Generator]

10. Yep

Fox NEWS told me that Iraq was just as safe as Detroit, you know. They report (propaganda) and I decide (with false information blared at me all day long).

[rodeodance]

11. k

[Jacobin]

12. And our chocolate ration increases by 4 ounces this month

Please tune in to the big talking head on the wall for the next update from the Ministry of Information.

[HuffleClaw]

13. "a 75 percent decrease" bwhaahhahaaaaa

geeze, at least make the lives SOMEWHAT believable. they've been caught soooo many times 'adujusting' their own stats it would be more newsworthy had they released some TRUE figures for a change.

[krkaufman]

14. They lied us into invading Iraq. Obviously, they'll lie to keep us there.