STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 17

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Friday August 17, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 524 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2415 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2127 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2088
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 16, 2007

Dow... 12,845.78 -15.69 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,451.07 -7.76 (-0.32%)
S&P 500... 1,411.27 +4.57 (+0.32%)
Gold future... 658.00 -21.70 (-3.30%)
30-Year Bond 4.93% -0.08 (-1.68%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.60% -0.11 (-2.25%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. My thanks to the person who donated on my behalf.

:hug: That was very kind.

Ozy :hi:

[Roland99]

4. Wasn't me but you deserve many thanks for all your work up here!

:toast:

[Hugin]

69. Me either... I suspect Grovelbot.

:D

True, that was very nice of them.

You need a star for all you do! :bounce:

[Turbineguy]

2. This started 2 days

after the repeal of the Uptick Rule. All Thanks to George Bush's SEC.

[Roland99]

3. U.S. stock futures down sharply after Japan stumble

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-down-sharply/story.aspx?guid=%7B075E0CC9%2D6875%2D414E%2DAE01%2D2E6F5038D14E%7D

U.S. stock futures dropped on Friday, with continued doubts about the strength of credit markets resulting in the worst single-session decline in Japanese stocks in seven years.

S&P 500 futures dropped 14.8 points at 1,409.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 13.75 points at 1,842.75. Dow industrial futures dropped 146 points.

U.S. stocks experienced a dramatic reversal in the final hour of trade Thursday, helping the Dow industrials to recover most of a 340-point deficit to finish only slightly lower. While financials including the troubled Bear Stearns rallied, the Dow industrials finished 15 points lower and the Nasdaq Composite declined 7.8 points. The S&P 500 rose 4.6 points.

Still, analysts weren't willing to proclaim the worst is over.

Another round of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.

[Mend]

5. does anyone know if yesterday's recovery was manipulated by the PPT or

are there really everyday people out there who thought at 4pm, "I think I'll buy some stock in AT&T"? This whole thing doesn't seem reality-based to me, but what do I know, I don't own stock.

[Roland99]

8. In no way can my mind fathom anything other than PPT/institutional buying

to account for a 300pt swing in to the UPSIDE in a 45min. span!

[ozymandius]

9. Could very well be the PPT - but I suggest today's WrapUp for info

Another thing: Much of the recovery came during the proverbial "Witching Hour" between 3-4pm. We call it the Witching Hour because, during this time, anything can happen. What happened yesterday seemed to indicate the placement of a huge amount of 'buy' orders right before the close.

[specimenfred1984]

67. Fed likely told the banks it represents that it would cut rates today

The PPT is a concerted effort by all participants, I doubt the Fed would surprise the very banks it works with.

[4dsc]

6. Do option's expire today??

I heard something this week on CNBC that options expire this week(today) and that should add to the volatity of the markets?? Comments??

[displacedtexan]

18. Here's what I found on options

LINK

The stock market might see added volatility on Friday due to the pending expiration of August options contracts. A stock option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock at an agreed-upon price within a certain period.

Hope this helps.

[ozymandius]

7. Market WrapUp

Conclusion: Long Term Interest Rates are Heading Higher
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

The recent market selloff was accompanied by a flight to the safety of Treasuries. Stocks down, bonds up – recently we’ve seen this seemingly day after day. However, it is important to note that in spite of this short term action, the long term trend in long interest rates has changed from down to up. Even though rallies in the bond market (interest rates lower) have been sharp and convincing, the long view supports the conclusion that long term interest rates are heading higher. One technical chart supporting this conclusion is illustrated below. Upward trending interest rates that occurred in the 1960’s finally topped in 1982. High rates of inflation accompanied the rising long term trend in interest rates. The secular bull market in stocks began in 1982, and this generally corresponded to the start of a long interest rate downtrend. Stocks bottomed when interest rates topped. From 1982 until recently, there was an active downtrend in long term interest rates; however, the trend of lower interest rates is likely over, and long term interest rates are likely in a young secular uptrend.

-chart-

Today’s Market

Today has all the appearances of a reversal day as the major indices finished near the flat line. Volume was heavy, and the Nasdaq 100 put out a doji candlestick. It closed trading within a point of the 200-day moving average.

Here’s the candlestick chart of the S&P Small Caps, showing a bullish hammer.
(chart)
Here’s the transportation index – a bullish hammer.
(chart)
Here’s the emerging market ETF. This is the most bullish hammer of all.
(chart)
Here’s the Dow Industrials – bullish hammer again.
(chart)
What is a hammer? It is when a market or stock opens and closes in a narrow range, after a downtrend. There is a “tail” representing trading much throughout a lower range during the day. The longer the “tail,” the wider (and lower) the range of trading throughout the day. Higher volume (as shown in the Dow Jones Industrials), tends to confirm the bullish nature of a hammer. The bullish nature of the hammer such as the ones in the Dow and emerging market ETF would need to be confirmed. In the case of the Dow, confirmation would be a couple of ticks above the 200-day moving average.

This is what the technical chart is suggesting to me. What is going on behind the scenes? Consider this possibility. Over the weekend, the public was given a large dose of “the fed is adding liquidity” talk. I even got a call from my cousin (a medical professional) who mentioned this to me. So through the beginning of the week, with the public expecting the market to be saved by this “added liquidity,” the market continued to sell off. This was the perfect set up for both panic selling and aggressive (but late) traders jumping on the bear side of things. Maybe the liquidity was waiting for this to occur before finally finding its way into the financial markets (this afternoon). Now with sufficient buying power via new liquidity, panic sellers becoming panic buyers, and short covering, the market becomes free heading higher. Of course this is just a theory, but the daily hammers deserve respect from a short term trading perspective.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

10. great....

just as long as that long-term rise doesn't hit until after next spring (when I plan on buying a house!!)

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 81.473 Change -0.265 (-0.32%)

Dow Stages Impressive Comeback, Dollar Skyrockets on Rising Risk Aversion : Will the Fed Still Cut Interest Rates?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dow_Stages_Impressive_Comeback__Dollar_1187299109181.html

Volatility rocked the markets as the Dow plummeted as much as 340 points intraday before reversing to settle down only 15.69 points. Today’s move is nothing short of impressive and suggests that at least for the time being, US stocks and carry trades have hit a short term bottom. However everyone from hedge funds to Mrs. Watanabe has probably been shaken out. Given the massive losses incurred over the past few days, speculators may simply not have enough money or the stomach to get back into the markets and try to pick a bottom especially since the CME and CBOT increased margin requirements on some currency, interest rate and stock-index futures. These days, cash is a valuable commodity since a liquidity crisis means a lack of cash. The sharpness of recent moves and the lack of liquidity have probably pushed more traders to liquidate positions than to add funds. Flight to safety continues to send the dollar higher against every major currency with the exception of the Japanese Yen as more victims of the subprime and liquidity crisis surface. First Magnus Financial Corp, the nation’s 16th largest mortgage lender announced that it stopped taking mortgage applications. National City Corp shut down its home equity unit while Countrywide Financial tapped its entire credit facility in order to continue operations. The Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan have all responded with liquidity injections today. Even the Russian central bank added reserves to their financial system. Despite the sharp reversal of earlier losses in stocks, the biggest question on everyone’s mind is when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The market is current pricing 75bp of easing by the end of the year. There has also been speculation of an intermeeting rate cut. Like many central banks around the world, the Fed has been reluctant to lower rates because they feel that the markets need to be punished for their excessive risk appetite. Furthermore, they have said that they need to see market volatility have a “real impact” on the economy. Between now and the next Fed meeting on September 18, there is plenty of economic data due for release. With major losses and bankruptcies reported throughout the financial sector, we expect companies to layoff staff left and right. Even Biotech giant Amgen announced today that they will be reducing their workforce by 12 percent. For the people in the “real economy,” their 401ks have taken a harsh beating while their mortgage interest payments are on the rise. It is only a matter of time when we see economic reflect that. The bad news is already pouring in with housing starts hitting a 10 year low and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region stagnating. Since the beginning of the year, the weak dollar has provided a big boom to the manufacturing sector. Now that the dollar has strengthened significantly, activity in the manufacturing sector should also begin to slow.

...more...

Carry Trades See Biggest Percent Move in Years : Is the End Near ?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Carry_Trades_See_Biggest_Percent_1187277035204.html

Large scale liquidation of carry trades continued overnight (Compare the Aug 2007 losses with Oct 1998 losses ). News that Countrywide Financial tapped its entire $11.5 billion credit facility and Canada’s Coventree failed to find buyers for its asset backed commercial paper exacerbated concerns that the liquidity crunch isn’t going away despite over $300 billion worth of liquidity injections from central banks around the world. The Japanese Yen crosses weakened throughout the night, but the selling quickly picked up pace around 6:30am EST when USD/JPY broke below 115.00; in less than 10 minutes, the currency pair fell 150 pips to hit a low of 113.59.

The other yen crosses which are linked to the value of USD/JPY followed suit with pairs like GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY falling 300 pips within a matter of minutes. From yesterday’s London close to today’s low point of 76.70, NZD/JPY saw its biggest percentage decline in 22 years. However as carry trade liquidation hits an extreme, the selling may soon come to an end.

Speculators are Already Shaken Out

According to the latest FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index, open positions in the Japanese Yen are down 15 percent overnight. Banks are also reporting that Japanese retail FX traders have reduced their positions by more than 80 percent which suggests that Mrs. Watanabe is getting shaken out by the recent moves as well. Who’s to blame her for bailing given the fact that GBP/JPY fell 700 points from its high today and 1200 points since the beginning of the week. These losses far outweigh any interest income. The liquidation however was not limited to the Yen crosses as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both fell over 3 percent against the buck. Flight to safety continues to benefit the US dollar as traders are forced to close out their risky positions and move back to cash. Yesterday was “red letter Wednesday” when investors had their last opportunity to demand their money back by the end of September. Hedge funds will have to raise cash to meet these withdrawal requests by liquidating their assets. We are already seeing triple digit losses in the Dow. Also, margin calls in general have taken a lot of traders out of the markets. As of close of business today, the CME and CBOT will be increasing their margin requirements on some currency, interest rate, and stock-index futures which mean that regular retail investors will also have to fork up more cash (which they may not be willing to) or bear the pain of margin calls. Once most of speculators are stopped out, that is typically when we have a bottom in periods of liquidation. Therefore we expect a few hundred point bounce in the Yen crosses over the next few days. However given the gravity of today’s moves a bounce will not negate the overall downtrend which is true even if USD/JPY manages to rally back up to 118.

...more...

No Place to Hide; Dollar-Yen Swings Wildly - Will Fed Cut?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/No_Place_to_Hide__Dollar_Yen_1187343400389.html

Another wild and crazy night of volatility in the currency markets as carry trades and high yielders first staged a rebound after a strong equity finish in New York only to see those gains quickly evaporate after Nikkei fell more than 800 points as panicked investors in Asia sold stocks on fears of a coming credit and global slowdown in growth. USDJPY touched 111.57 - its lowest level in more than a year – but managed to recover somewhat after European markets opened to the upside.

With economic calendar essentially empty and irrelevant the currency market will continue to take its cues from the equity markets. The massive rise in volatility which has pushed some measures of risk such as the UBS risk monitor to all time highs are likely to continue for the rest of the day and perhaps into next week. Markets are clearly looking to monetary authorities for some sings of stability. And the liquidation of stock positions may continue unabatedly until the Fed lowers rates. The rate cut could have two positive effects. First it should lower the cost of credit and perhaps return some confidence in the fixed income markets and secondly it will instantaneously improve equity valuation vis a vis fixed income instruments. Should that occur USDJPY and other popular carry trades such as EURJPY GBPJPY and NZDJPY may see some relief from the relentless selling of the past several weeks.

A Fed rate cut may boost the high yielders like the kiwi Aussie and cable for a brief moment, but whether such a policy move will be enough to avert a global economic slowdown remains to be seen. One of the key problems presently in the financial markets, as an article in FT points out, is the complete lack of transparency regarding the nature of the credit risk. Because many of the asset backed securities reside on the books of secretive hedge funds, investors have little information as to the size of the problem. Therefore the natural response has been to liquidate assets first and ask questions later and given the well publicized calamities that have befallen a variety of hedge funds this dynamic is likely to persist. Credit after all comes from Latin word to trust and until such time that trust can be re-established in the capital markets the currencies will continue their huge gyrations as investors scramble for answers.

...more...

[ozymandius]

14. Thanks for the focus on carry trades.

Aside from the Michigan sentiment this is the thing to watch. How much, I wonder, is the JPY/USD carry trade out of the BoJ's hands?

[UpInArms]

23. Japan FX margin traders dump kiwi, other currencies

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUST22400020070817

TOKYO, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Japanese individuals making leveraged bets in currencies dumped the high-yielding New Zealand dollar and others against the yen on Thursday, slashing their net long positions almost in half and helping fuel the yen's surge.

Data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange -- one of many brokers for FX margin trading in Japan -- showed the net long position of traders in seven foreign currencies collapsed by $1.54 billion on Thursday to $1.93 billion.

Japanese margin traders have become a force in the FX market and have typically bought foreign currencies on pullbacks against the yen, but this time they seem to have been caught off guard by the severity of the selling.

"Certainly they are squeezed ... I think they will be more cautious," said Masafumi Yamamoto, a currency economist at Nikko Citigroup. "I still believe that when the markets stabilise, they will want higher yields."

Trading on margin allows individuals to boost the size of bets and potential returns, but it can also magnify losses.

Fears about spreading losses and distress in credit markets have spurred a sell-off this week in risky assets and carry trades, in which funds are borrowed in low-yielding currencies such as the yen to buy high-yielding currencies.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. dollar drops like a stone after rate cut

Last trade 81.207 Change -0.531 (-0.65%)

[mojavekid]

116. Daily Pfennig 8/17/07: Unwinding the Carry Trade...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1543


Whew! What a day in the markets! The Dow was down over 300 points and then rallied at the end of the day to close down only 15 points! WOW! And how about that Japanese yen? A 3 whole yen move in one day! Shoot! The past year or so, we would have been happy to see a positive move in yen in any amount! But, that's the markets for you... Just when you think it's safe to go back in the water!

Yesterday, I said that I needed to see more evidence that the "carry trade" was indeed unwinding... But I think I've seen enough! The high yielders are getting the stuffing knocked out of them, and the low yielders like yen and Swiss francs are gaining ground... I know, I know, a lot of you are saying that I couldn't see the trees in the forest, if I hadn't seen this before now... That's OK... At least I see it now!

What does this mean? Well... It means that the high-yielding currencies, kiwi and krona come to mind, are not going to see the light of day for a while... However, low-yielding currencies like yen and Swiss francs are going to be the belles of the ball for a while....

I've warned people about this for over a year now... And I was beginning to look like the boy who cried wolf... But here it is... Right here in front of us, staring us right between the eyes...

But... As I asked yesterday, why is the euro getting caught up in this? It's not a high yielder... As I read the Daily Reckoning yesterday, (http://www.dailyreckoning.com) Bill Bonner said it best regarding the euro sell-off....

"People have fewer euro-denominated debts than dollar-denominated debts, so the dollar rises against the euro. On the other hand, speculators in the carry trade have huge yen debts. They borrowed at low yen rates in order to buy higher-yielding investments – including subprime CDOs. Now, they’ve got to sell their dollar positions and buy yen in order to repay their yen loans. So the yen rises against the dollar."

more....

[ozymandius]

12. Today's Report

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug
Briefing Forecast 88.0
Market Expects 88.5
Prior 90.4

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

56. UMich August Consumer Sentiment at 83.3 vs 90.4 in July

01. UMich Aug. consumer sentiment 83.3 vs. 90.4 previously
10:01 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

81. Gauge of U.S. economy slips in latest week-ECRI

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00307420070817

NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week on higher interest rates and lower commodities prices, and the measure's annualized growth rate fell to a 16-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) eased to 141.8 in the week ended Aug. 10 from 141.9 in the prior week, revised from 142.

The annualized growth rate in the index declined to 4.2 percent from a revised 5.1 percent in prior week. It was originally reported at 5.2 percent.

"While a pullback in WLI growth to a sixteen-week low indicated a slight dulling in U.S. economic growth prospects, this is far from a recessionary downturn, and the economy remains resilient in the near term," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

13. Dell to restate four years of results

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200708161741DOWJONESDJONLINE000819_FORTUNE5.htm

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Dell Inc. said Thursday it will restate more than four years of financial results after "errors and irregularities" were discovered during a review of past accounting and reporting practices.

The irregularities included manipulation of numbers at the request of senior executives in order to artificially hit financial targets, Dell (DELL) said after the markets closed.

The Round Rock, Texas-based PC maker's "audit committee has determined to restate the company's financial statements relating to fiscal 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006... and the first quarter of fiscal 2007," it said in a written statement.

The financial impact of the restatement includes a decrease in earnings of between 2 and 7 cents a share for the restatement period, compared to previously reported earnings of $4.78 a share for the period, Dell said.

Net revenue is expected to be reduced by less than 1% for the period, and net income is expected to be reduced between $50 million and $150 million, the company said, from the more than $12 billion in net income previously reported for the period.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Dell, Admitting Managers Inflated Sales Reports, Will Restate Income

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/17/business/17dell.html?ex=1345003200&en=f0c15ae25a75bbcc&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 16 — The senior management of Dell regularly falsified quarterly returns from 2003 through 2006 to create the appearance that the company had met sales targets, the computer maker disclosed Thursday.

The accounting misconduct also resulted in inflated earnings, so the company will restate its net income for the period by $50 million to $150 million, it said.

The disclosures came after a yearlong internal probe. The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating the company’s behavior.

Dell said that the amounts the company is restating vary by quarter and year. Dell said it expects the biggest restatements to come in the first quarter of 2003 and second quarter of 2004, where reductions should be 10 percent to 13 percent. In a number of other quarters, the reduction is expected to change 5 percent or less.

The company, in a filing with the S.E.C., said reductions reflect a pattern of malfeasance in which “account balances were reviewed, sometimes at the request of senior executives, with the goal of seeking adjustments so that quarterly objectives could be met.”

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Paulson sees more bad news ahead

Paulson sees more bad news ahead

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/16/magazines/fortune/easton_paulson.fortune/index.htm

WASHINGTON (Fortune) -- Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson predicts that the "current strained situation" in the markets "will take time to play out, and more difficult news will come to light. Some investors will take losses, some organizations will fail," he says in remarks that will appear in the forthcoming issue of Fortune.

But, he stresses, global economic fundamentals remain healthy, providing a solid base for financial markets to continue to adjust. "The overall economy and the market are healthy enough to absorb all this," he notes.

This is the kind of carefully calibrated observation that has become the hallmark of Paulson's public remarks during a volatile summer. How to acknowledge bad news without feeding it is at the crux of a communications dilemma for the Bush administration.

It's not an easy balance. Attempting to cheerlead a squirrely market is a dangerous enterprise, akin to "catching a falling knife" says former White House economics adviser Lawrence B. Lindsey, because "you risk looking impotent" if the market continues to fall. But saying nothing can carry its own risks, too, if the markets interpret that invisibility as a sign of no-confidence.

...more...

[Roland99]

16. FEDERAL RESERVE LOWERS DISCOUNT WINDOW RATE TO 5.75% FROM 6.25%

FEDERAL RESERVE LOWERS DISCOUNT WINDOW RATE TO 5.75% FROM 6.25%

U.S. stock futures surge after Fed move

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-down-sharply/story.aspx?guid=%7B075E0CC9%2D6875%2D414E%2DAE01%2D2E6F5038D14E%7D

U.S. stock futures surged on Friday after the Federal Reserve stepped in with a half-point cut to one of its main interest rates

The Federal Reserve cut its discount rate to 5.75% from 6.25%, saying it wanted to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the targeted federal funds rate.

"These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially," it said.
S&P 500 futures jumped 13.6 points at 1,439.30 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 25.5 points at 1,882.50. End of Story

[harun]

20. WOW !!! I didn't think that would happen until about November (n/t)

[spotbird]

21. Won't this cause inflation and

devalue the dollar further, while only postponing the collapse of housing.

Or will this fix all the problems?

[spotbird]

24. Where I live groceries

are up about 10% in the last month, maybe because energy is so high in the heat. A single orange is now .79, apples just less than $1.00 each. Nothing useful is discounted, just trash.

How in the name of God will people survive if it gets any worse?

[wordpix]

68. they will have to grow their own---every rooftop, backyard &vacant lot should have a garden

or orchard

[UpInArms]

26. just do a "refresh" on those currency and metal charts

gold just jumped 10 an ounce - the euro the the canadian dollar just dumped us and the BoJ bought more dollars

[ramapo]

51. Inflation? What inflation?

Don't you know that inflation has been under control for decades? Never mind what food and medical care, and housing, and clothing, and fuel cost!

So the Fed prints more money to feed into the stock market machine. Nothing much matters as long as the Dow keeps pumping.

[wordpix]

66. repeat after me: electricity, oil and gas rise in double digits each year but there is no infla-

tion! Repeat 10 times and rinse, then start again and maybe the sheeple will believe it.

[Hugin]

80. I see y'all later... I'm off to buy a 10 year supply of powdered milk, powdered eggs...

powdered cheese, powdered sugar, powdered electricity, powdered gasoline, powdered powder... etc.

I'll weather this thing, OK! ;) :thumbsup:


Note to self: Don't forget the -WATER- this time.

[kineneb]

86. got lots of mashed potato flakes- want some?

;)

USDA free food... have 4 or 5 bags, can't figure out what to do with them, since I am not great a mashed potato eater... have 8 lbs of spaghetti noodles- same source... Oh, well, at least they are "food"(?)...should save them, I guess.

got to say the free vegetarian vegetable soup is absolutely dreadful:thumbsdown:

[Hugin]

96. Thanks so much for the kind offer!

:D

Reminds me... I need to add soap flakes to my list!

Sorry to hear about the vegetarian vegetable soup! That's a shame...

[spotbird]

98. Potato soup?

Eight pounds will keep you all winter, but that's about all I could think to do with them.

[UpInArms]

22. US STOCKS-Fed discount rate cut sends futures soaring

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1743250320070817

NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures soared on Friday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut the discount rate by half a percentage point to 5.75 percent in a move to soothe investors' fears about market liquidity.

The Fed cut the rate that it charges member banks for loans. The Fed said it cut the rate as the downside risks to growth have increased "appreciably."

"This (move by the Fed is) pretty significant, looking at the major move in the stock futures. A lot of people were hoping for this," said Cleveland Rueckert, market analyst at Birinyi Associates Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. "Even so, I still think it's time to wait and see. There's still uncertainty."

S&P 500 futures (SPc1: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 26.3 points, well above fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures (DJc1: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 189 points, and Nasdaq 100 (NDc1: Quote, Profile, Research) futures gained 41.50 points.

[mojavekid]

125. MW: Gold futures rise sharply as Fed cuts rate

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-rise-sharply-fed/story.aspx?guid=%7BDC324ABA%2DB89C%2D45D9%2DA22A%2D2BC7E257F2A9%7D

"The markets will now digest the nuances of what a cut in the discount rate means and why it was not a full point move to match the fed funds rate," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in emailed comments.
"All eyes will be on the longevity that this adrenaline injection has in various markets," Nadler said. "Investor confidence may not return for a while as the move does not begin to address the structural problems inherent in the credit mess -- the true size of which remains an unknown at this time."
Gold for December delivery rallied $13.30, or 2%, at $671.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other metals, which had sold off Thursday, also posted strong gains. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks surged at the open.
"I don't buy this rally at all," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial, in emailed comments. "I believe you're seeing a short covering, a temporary bounce."
"I think this is a speculative bump and a rookie open and I'd be very surprised to see the market take a rally this large into the weekend, stocks and gold included," Oxman said.

more...

[mojavekid]

127. News.com.au: 'Sub-prime crisis won't affect gold demand'

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22261007-14334,00.html?from=public_rss


NEWCREST Mining boss Ian Smith says the sub-prime crisis is unlikely to affect gold demand from China and India.

"China and India are still powering on and I don't think the sub-prime market in the US really concerns the hunger in China and India for gold," Mr Smith said today.

"I think that some of the things unfolding in the general finance community would suggest that it is fairly positive for gold over the next two years."

snip...

Output from the gold miner's operations came in at 1.62 million ounces for the full year, and Newcrest has flagged production of about 1.87 million attributable ounces from its operations during 2007/08.

end...

.....Well they don't build houses with gold over there, but they do view it as a safe haven in difficult times. The last time America had such trouble, gold was confiscated, we have a lot to learn about hard times and gold as a hedge against uncertainty...The world knows it and is buying.

[Deb]

25. Is this drop immediately passed on to the borrower?

I've got a kid locking in a mortgage rate today. Thanks

[UpInArms]

28. ....

errr....

sorry about that -

the short answer is "no" - that's just the rate that banks charge each other to keep kiting their checks

they want the spread between what the consumer pays them and what they pay each other to be very large - that's how they make their money

:hi:

[Deb]

39. Thanks this is so confusing

Discount rates are in house but Fed fund rates can change the prime. Do I have it right now?

[UpInArms]

40. that's the one!

sometimes I do think that they do this to confuse - using a variety of words that have meanings that crossover.

The one that makes a difference to the general public is the prime rate - the rest of them are between the regional fed banks and the banks that you see on the streets.

[ozymandius]

27. 8:30 pre-open numbers and blather

08:30 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: +31.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +39.8. The futures market has spiked to fresh morning highs, now indicating a sharply higher start for stocks. The now bullish disposition is the direct result of the Fed, in an unscheduled meeting, recently cutting the discount window rate by 50 basis points, to 5.75% from 6.25%. The Fed noted that "market conditions have deteriorated" and "downside risks have increased appreciably"” since it last met on August 7.

Assurance that banks will now have available funding and the Fed saying this change will remain in place until it determines market liquidity has improved materially has lit a fire under stocks, especially throughout an influential Financial sector which is pacing pre-market gains and providing significant leadership.

[UpInArms]

31. Dow industrial futures up 206 points at 13,150

02. Dow industrial futures up 206 points at 13,150
8:37 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

[Roland99]

34. "downside risks have increased appreciably" ... meaning...

The chance for seeing the slightest bit of growth is far outweighed by preventing a complete and total collapse.




;)

[earthside]

42. This Means Economic 'Calamity', Right?

This Reuters story just yesterday:

Fed's Poole says no need for emergency rate cut

"St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said on Wednesday financial market turmoil had not undermined the U.S. economy and there was no need for the central bank to ride to the rescue with an emergency rate cut. ...

The St. Louis Fed chief said that barring a "calamity," there was no need for the U.S. central bank to consider cutting interest rates before policy-makers gather for their next regularly scheduled meeting on September 18 ..."

You can only conclude therefore, that the U.S. economy is nearing a point of 'calamity'.

[UpInArms]

48. guess we'll just have to start calling him Calamity Poole

:)

Poole the Tool will go down in history as one of the most stoopid fed govs ever.

:shakeshead:

[Ghost Dog]

90. (FT) Fed cuts discount rate in surprise move

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0df7c8c0-4cc4-11dc-a51d-0000779fd2ac.html

...

The surprise move, which was agreed during an emergency conference call on Thursday night, makes it more likely the Fed will cut its main rate next month and may help ease liquidity in financial markets and limit the blow to financial institutions from the deterioration in assets exposed to the meltdown in the US subprime mortgage sector.

The statement shows that the Fed has abandoned its hawkish bias towards raising rates to combat inflation, and has moved to a neutral stance and is ready to cut interest rates.

In the unexpected announcement, the Fed said: ”Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward.”

The central bank ”is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets”, the statement added.

The move is a reversal for the Fed, which previously played down the impact on the economy from the crisis building in the high-risk end of the US home loan market.

The cut in the lending rate follows warnings from Wall Street economists that the turbulence in financial markets was hitting banks’ balance sheets and might limit their ability to lend and meet their obligations.

This could resulted in a further tightening of lending conditions and an increase in the cost of borrowing that would begin to have effects on businesses and households seeking credit and the wider economy.

/...

[ozymandius]

17. Oil prices climb after overnight slide

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices rose Friday after an overnight slide, signaling diminishing concerns about a possible U.S. economic downturn and declines in world stock markets.

On Thursday, the Nymex crude contract fell $2.33 to settle at $71 a barrel as investors turned their attention to the cooling U.S. economy and falling stock markets. In the U.S., the stock market tumbled in intraday trading as concerns about economic conditions were exacerbated by more bad news from the mortgage sector, and by dismal reports on housing construction and employment.

Still, Wall Street pulled off a late-session turnaround to close mixed after bargain hunters lured by weeks of massive declines came back to the stock market. The Dow Jones industrials, down more than 340 points in afternoon trading, ended the day with a loss of just 16 points

Earlier in Asia, news of a U.S. refinery fire helped push crude futures as high as $71.88, recovering some of the ground lost Thursday in the U.S. Then the Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index nose-dived 5.4 percent Friday, and regional markets and oil followed.

But by noon in Europe, light, sweet crude for September delivery rose 49 cents to $71.49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

32. Gas here has gone up twice...up to $2.89 now.

The crude and gas inventories report earlier this week took a few days to filter out to the pumps.

[displacedtexan]

29. 24 hours of Housing News

I'm speechless...


Homeowners Opt to Pay Debts Over Keeping Homes 08/16/07
Home prices drop for fourth straight quarter 08/16/07
Countrywide Borrows $11.5B From 40 Banks 08/16/07
Fidelity, Franklin Hit as Real Estate Funds Lose $13 Billion 08/16/07
Run on Treasury Bills Spurred by Subprime Contagion 08/16/07
H&R Block CEO Says Breeden Sent `Misleading' Message 08/16/07
Moody's Warns of Potential LTCM-Scale Fund Collapse 08/16/07
Countrywide Taps $11.5 Billion Credit Line From Banks 08/16/07
Fannie Mae predicts continued mortgage defaults through 2008 08/16/07
Fed Official: No Need For Emergency Rate Cut 08/16/07
Credit Anxiety, Countrywide Panic 08/16/07
Hedge-Fund Guy Atones for His Subprime Bond Sins: Mark Gilbert 08/16/07
U.S. Housing Starts Dropped 6.1% to 1.381 Million Pace in July 08/16/07
Countrywide forced to turn to banks for help 08/16/07
Investors seek refuge as credit worries snowball 08/16/07
Price trumps location in current housing market (NY) 08/16/07
Foreclosures rise in Suffolk (NY) 08/16/07
Subprime mess hits Hudson County (NJ) 08/16/07
Foreclosure woes increase (VA) 08/16/07
Home sales slump in Maryland 08/16/07
Orange County home sales still slide (CA) 08/16/07
Stockton Foreclosure Rate Highest In Country 08/16/07
Bay Area home prices steady, slow sales 08/16/07
Approved Home Loans No Longer a Done Deal 08/16/07

Many more Housing News articles...

[ozymandius]

30. Bear Stearns cuts 240 subprime jobs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bear Stearns Cos Inc (BSC.N) said on Thursday it will cut about 240 subprime lending jobs as a global credit squeeze and a subprime lending crisis rattles markets.

The New York investment bank employs about 15,100 people worldwide and said the cuts would not affect Wall Street jobs.

About 100 jobs are being cut at Encore Credit, a subprime lender Bear Stearns acquired in the past year for about $26 million, the company said. About 140 more jobs will be cut at Bear Stearns Residential, which funds risky subprime mortgages and Alt-A loans for borrowers with decent credit, the company said.

The crisis in the subprime lending industry recently buckled two hedge funds at Bear Stearns and led to the recent ouster of co-president Warren Spector. Several dozen U.S. subprime lenders have either shut down, curtailed their operations or cut jobs.

Subprime lending, meanwhile, has plummeted amid a rising wave of delinquencies and defaults. Wall Street's packaging of these loans into securities has slowed to a trickle.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070816/bs_nm/bearstearns_subprime_jobs_dc

[UpInArms]

35. Banks, brokers rebound strongly, led by Bear (will it be a China Bear?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/banks-brokers-rebound-strongly-led/story.aspx?guid=%7B62AF88DE%2D26BD%2D441F%2D83C2%2D00EA6B7E8936%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Banks and brokers rebounded strongly from earlier losses on Thursday. Bear Stearns led the recovery, surging 13% after an analyst said the company may sell a big stake to Chinese banks.

Shares of both Countrywide Financial and E-Trade Financial fell more than 20% earlier in the day as investors grew increasingly nervous about the firms' ability to keep operating in the face of tough conditions in the mortgage markets. Still, those stocks also rebounded strongly, ending with losses of 11% and 2.6%, respectively.

Bear Stearns (BSC: 116.44, +13.29, +12.9%) shares ended up $13.29 at $116.44 after hitting a low of $101.23 earlier on Thursday. The bank has been talking with potential investors, including Chinese banks about new funding, such as selling as much as a 20% stake in the company, analyst Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel & Co. said in a report. Bove said Bear may be seeking a convertible debt investment.

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

==================
GROVELBOT.EXE v4.0
==================



This week is our third quarter 2007 fund drive. Democratic
Underground is a completely independent website. We depend on donations
from our members to cover our costs. Thank you so much for your support.

[UpInArms]

36. Does Paulson have loose flapping lips?

18. Goldman Sachs sees quarter-point cut on or before Sept. 18
8:18 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 42 minutes ago

19. Goldman Sachs sees total 0.75 point cut by end of year
8:18 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 42 minutes ago

[Roland99]

41. Well, that will help the banks but how will that help the dollar and the "consumer-driven" economy?

:banghead:

[UpInArms]

45. didn't you hear?

the consumer is the one that is the drag on the economy!

[Roland99]

93. Well, there's only one answer then: MORE WAR!! Who's next?!?

bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.....

[loudsue]

37. K & R Another roll of the dice today....

What will today bring???

:popcorn:

:kick:

[UpInArms]

43. Will Sentinel Mortgage be the next one to drop?

01. Penson says Sentinel sold its assets at up to 30% discount
9:28 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

02. Penson "to pursue all legal remedies against Sentinel"
9:28 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

03. Penson says Sentinel sold its assets at up to 30% discount
9:27 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

04. Penson says Sentinel sold its assets without notice
9:23 AM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 8 minutes ago

http://www.sentinelgroup.ca/mortgage/

[UpInArms]

83. Penson says Sentinel sold some assets without approval

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG10747620070817

Aug 17 (Reuters) - Penson Worldwide Inc.'s (PNSN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said Sentinel Management Group Inc. has informed its futures clearing unit, Penson GHCO, that Sentinel sold certain of the assets it manages, including some Penson assets, to Citadel Investments Group LLC.

Penson, which is a customer of Sentinel, said it opposes the sale that occurred without any notice or approval from Penson and in breach of its contract with Sentinel.

<snip>

Penson said it believes Sentinel, which has been facing liquidity issues, sold the assets at discounts of up to 30 percent from market prices.

Sentinel provides cash management services for a number of commodity brokers and hedge funds.

...more...

[A HERETIC I AM]

44. Holy shit! Dow up almost 300 in the 1st 4 minutes! Run around in circles, screaming!!!

Sorry.

Lost my head.

[DemReadingDU]

46. WOW!

:wow:

[UpInArms]

47. 9:36 EST BUY! BUY! BUY!

Dow 13,155.16 309.38 (2.41%)
Nasdaq 2,517.57 66.50 (2.71%)
S&P 500 1,441.91 30.64 (2.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.72% 0.12

NYSE Volume 264,657,000
Nasdaq Volume 273,954,000

[A HERETIC I AM]

49. Actually, the shouts for BUY! BUY! BUY! were yesterday and thats why it came back.

Now of course, more will buy and then kick themselves for not getting in at the bottom.

Pessimism and fear only goes so far.
Rationalism invariably sets in when bargains are spotted. And there are a shit load of bargains this morning. If you bought Countrywide yesterday, you just made $4.40/share if you sold RIGHT NOW (9.43 AM)
What the Fed did was a good thing, in my opinion, but hey, i am not an economist, just a guy in the trenches.

[fasttense]

50. Happy Days are here again! n/t

[Buttercup McToots]

52. Wowwee Zowwwie

:crazy:

[wordpix]

64. could be, "Happy hour is here again." Hope you're right, tho.

[UpInArms]

53. well, I guess the SELL! SELL! SELL!

signal just went out 'cuz it's starting to drop again.

I don't think that the Fed should get involved in additional volatility with taxpayer dollars.

It's just a bad idea. That's stealing with a license from everyone - we pay the fed to print those dollars and they are flagrant with their actions.

They ran this up with the PPT and hedge fund mess and Greenscum encouraged poor behavior - reminds me of how RayGun praised Don Dixon in the 80s as being the ideal banker - check out that story - he owned Vernon Savings and Loan in Texas - it just about broke the taxpayers backs then, too.

http://www.scu.edu/ethics/publications/submitted/black/whistleblower.html

and here's a great history audio of that crap - we called it the Daisy Chain lending - where they shoved bad loans off to the next fool

http://www.amazon.com/Daisy-Chain-CST-Oshea/dp/0671737112

From Publishers Weekly
The extent of the S & L disaster--now estimated at $500 billion--continues to grow in impact as the press discloses fresh examples of greed, fraud and incompetence involving accounts, appraisers, lawyers, and bank and government officials, a few of whom must now face televised Senate Ethics Committee investigations. An editor at the Chicago Tribune , O'Shea here offers an astute appraisal of the political, economic and social climate which fostered the thrifts crisis. The author focuses on entrepreneur Donald Dixon's purchase of a seemingly sound, federally insured Vernon, Tex., S & L which--thanks in part to Reagan-era deregulations--allowed Dixon to fund reckless ventures and a lavish lifestyle, despite $3 billion invested in delinquent loans. So huge was the thrift's disarray and fraud by 1986, when federal officials seized it, that O'Shea contends the bank should have been closed, not salvaged. Major ad/promo; author tour.
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal
In 1981 when Don Dixon purchased Vernon Savings and Loan from R.B. Tanner in Vernon, Texas, he must have had an inkling of what the future was going to be with regards to deregulation. Dixon's experience is the subject of this revealing book by a noted Chicago Tribune writer. O'Shea not only documents the demise of this small S & L but traces the history of the thrift debacle to date, detailing the roles of key players such as Edwin L. Gray. Although not as comprehensive as Martin Mayer's The Greatest Ever Bank Robbery ( LJ 10/1/90), this book does, however, provide a readable, thought-provoking account of one element in this costly mess. Previewed in Prepub Alert, LJ 11/15/90.
- Steve J. Mayover, Free Lib. of Philadelphia
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

[A HERETIC I AM]

55. I understand your point of view but not everything is a conspiracy.

Who knows where the market will end up today? It could be a rerun of yesterday, just a mirror image.

But I think it is a bit of a stretch to accord too much of this to Greenspan, Hedge funds (of which, BTW, there are over 9000 out there) or the willy nilly "printing of money".

We'll see i suppose.

[UpInArms]

57. why are you doing a strawman gamer here?

I didn't say there was a conspiracy - that is your word -

I said it was poor management of our nation's fiscal policy with tools and fools leading the way into the poorhouse for the average person.

why don't you do some study on LCTM and Greenspan?

why don't you look up greenspan's words on hedge funds and regulation?

why don't you read bernanke's printing press comments?

This is no conspiracy - this is the reality of the market - RayGun built the PPT with an executive order - these are facts.

here it is:

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12631.html

Executive Order 12631--Working Group on Financial Markets

Source: The provisions of Executive Order 12631 of Mar. 18, 1988, appear at 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559, unless otherwise noted.

By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:
Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:
(1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;
(2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;
(3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and
(4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.
(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee, shall be the Chairman of the Working Group.
Sec. 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.
(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes.

Sec. 3. Administration. (a) The heads of Executive departments, agencies, and independent instrumentalities shall, to the extent permitted by law, provide the Working Group such information as it may require for the purpose of carrying out this Order.
(b) Members of the Working Group shall serve without additional compensation for their work on the Working Group.
(c) To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefore, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions.

[A HERETIC I AM]

59. Poor choice of words. My apologies.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

By the way UpInArms, i sincerely want to compliment the efforts you put into this thread every day. It is certainly informative and brings together in one thread news from many sources. You and the 3 or 4 others who place so many posts here each day all do a great job. I do mean that completely and sincerely and i am not trying to gloss over any difference in opinion you and i might have.

[UpInArms]

60. when you come in here (this thread), you need to be able to

back up what you offer - either through your personal (anecdotal) experience or with some link to substantiate what you claim.

There are no conspiracy theorists in this crowd and you denigrate the integrity of years of efforts by many - myself included - in getting transparency in how the markets operate.

You are welcome here, A HERETIC I AM, but we do not allow flamewars or name calling - enjoy the show

UIA

[A HERETIC I AM]

62. Thanks for the permission.

[Hugin]

74. "Daisy Chain lending" -- Very descriptive UIA.

I think a major reason for all of the volatility we are currently seeing is
caused by a number of factors of which this "Debt Passing" is a core factor.

The great fall will come if housing prices decline. I saw a chart showing a
5% reduction nationally would be enough to cause a long lasting... Dare I say
it? RECESSION.

and no, all you 'Hawks' out there... An escalation of the war will only dig a deeper hole.

Everywhere one looks they see debt.

[AnneD]

155. Good Saturday Morning.....

I have said all along that I have not been able to shake the feeling of deja vu the last few years. It looks like a variation of the Savings and Loan scandal that was so bad here in Texas and some other states. It looks like they really ramped up the game this time-but it still is the same game and taxpayers are bufued on this. Not enough or the right folks were held accountable the first time around and they have come to pick our pockets again. We were in a bit stronger position to recover last time than we are now. If it hit like it did last time there are parts of the country that will take years to recover, if at all.

All this rate cutting and pumping funds in if like blinders on a horse. If you want to lead a horse through a dangerous event (fire, flood, high narrow passages), you cover their eyes with a gunny sack, cloth, or whatever you have. It makes they docile and easier to handle.

Folks, the FEDS are putting the blinders over the public so we will be easier to handle-plain and simple.

[A HERETIC I AM]

54. Program trading curbs in effect according to CNBC n/t

[Teaser]

58. But this is.

(meant to be attached to "conspiracy theory post"

Bailing out big investors at the expense of everyone else is not a good idea.

How come the ideas of morals hazards never get applied to big financial institutions?

[spotbird]

100. What is a conspiracy anyway?

Interest rates were cut. There was a reason for that action. The reason was likely not to cause a decline in the Dow. Unless it was a purely random act with no intended beneficiary, we can assume that there was an expected result.

Is that wacko conspiracy theory? Or is it nuts to assume the actions taken by our government are lightning strikes?

[ozymandius]

126. The Fed is a lender of last resort for banks.

A rate cut will relieve those who got us into this mess. Not fair, in my estimation.

[spotbird]

129. No, particularly

since those facing foreclosure can't even enjoy bankruptcy relief.

I was addressing the guy who said that jokes about market manipulation show some sort of belief in false (paranoid?) conspiracy theories, when in fact there is no dispute at all the markets are supported by the government.

[Buttercup McToots]

61. It ain't gonna hold...

Betcha...

[fasttense]

63. Oh Buttercup (I just love your screen name)

Must you inject a dose of reality into my happy madness? Sigh... with the way the markets have been acting lately, nothing is going to surprise me.

[ozymandius]

78. Is this the best the Fed can do?

11:24
Dow 12,972.75 Up 126.97 (0.99%)
Nasdaq 2,482.26 Up 31.19 (1.27%)
S&P 500 1,429.67 Up 18.40 (1.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.671% Up 0.071
NYSE Volume 1,095,897,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,156,906,000

11:00 am : The indices continue to sport broad-based gains, but the market continues to make lower lows. Reversals in Health Care and Telecom, which removes upside leadership to the tune of about 15% of the S&P 500's total weighting, are the most noticeable reasons behind the market's downturn.

The Financial sector (+1.8%), which was up more than 4.0% at the onset of today's action, has seen that advance more than halved. Technology (+0.5%) was up 2.5%, but roughly 70% of that rally evaporating over the last two hours also weakens a significant source of early support. Nonetheless, the bulls are hanging in there enough to underpin a solid gain on the S&P 500 that has it back in positive territory for the year. DJ30 +95.27 NASDAQ +22.48 SP500 +15.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 859/2025/944 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 411/2800/804 mln

[wordpix]

65. Oil Surges $1 after Fed Cuts Discount Rate

http://www.cnbc.com/id/20304876

By Reuters | 17 Aug 2007 | 08:54 AM ET


Oil spiked more than $1 to above $72 after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its discount rate by 50 basis points to "restore order in financial markets" that have been hammered by credit worries.

Forecasts showing Hurricane Dean was on a course that could take it towards Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and refineries also supported oil markets, nervous of damage to the region that pumps a third of U.S. oil output.

"The cut may ease the liquidity crisis in the United States," said Christopher Bellew of brokerage Bache Financial. But he added: "Of course you could interpret it as an indication of how serious they think the problem is."

The rise was part of a broader rally that also lifted stock markets. Oil had taken a pounding on Thursday as investors sold to offset losses elsewhere or out of fear that a squeeze on credit will slow economic growth.

Oil is down 8% from its Aug. 1 record high of $78.77.

Investors continued to track the progress of Hurricane Dean which threatened to become a dangerously powerful storm as it moved into Caribbean and aimed for Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or the Gulf of Mexico. more...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

70. Did Anyone Hear Cramer's Call In To CNBC At 9:30 This Morning?

He predicted Twice that he believed this would be the biggest 1-Day Point Gain EVER for the Dow.

[DemReadingDU]

71. Maybe it will come during the last hour

But the Dow is up about 90 now at 11:11 am


edit to add: Dow going back up, 124 at 11:15

[Seabiscuit]

95. Doncha just love these crystal ball gazers? Or geezers?

I don't think Cramer's prediction will even come close to materializing, not the way things have been going this morning.

[mojavekid]

72. Reuters: U.S. housing woes to cut into GDP for some time

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1635500220070816

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A drying up of mortgage credit is exacerbating the U.S. housing market's deep slump, which looks set to last longer and take a bigger bite out of economic growth than economists had thought just weeks ago.

Falling home construction has cut into economic growth for each quarter since the start of last year, but the drag has been waning since the third quarter of 2006, when it sliced a hefty 1.3 percentage points off the annualized growth rate.

The Federal Reserve had been hoping the drag would continue to fade, but economists said growing credit troubles in financial markets, which have choked off a lot of funding for mortgages, mean even fairly recent forecasts need to be revisited.

The spillover will likely be felt broadly. For each new home built, 2-1/2 jobs are created, which helps lift demand for a broad range of goods and services.

"The housing downturn will likely be more severe, more widespread, and last longer than most analysts expected," said Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

On Thursday, the manufacturing group lowered its 2007 estimate for growth in U.S. gross domestic product to 1.9 percent from a month-ago estimate of 2.3 percent.

more...

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

73. k&r

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

75. Peter Schiff Making Sense On CNBC Now

They have him along with a "Happy Face" guy.

Says the Fed can't do anything. We're Still headed for an economic collapse. Says Ben knows if he lowers the official rate, the $ will fall through the floor. Says it's games. Smoke and mirrors.

Watch if you can.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

76. "It's Not The End Of The World" - Peter Schiff

"It's the End of the Phony American Economy."

[wordpix]

82. i.e. "End of the Phony American Economy" running on BushCo's $8.5 trillion debt

THAT is the dangerous elephant in the room even more than banks' bad credit loans & sub-prime meltdown, IMO.

[roamer65]

77. Schiff is absolutely correct on his assessment of the dollar.

Bernanke can't touch the interest rate differential we have with Japan and the EU. It's what keeps the money in all of our debt instruments. If he makes the differential too narrow...

:nuke: :nuke: :nuke:

[mojavekid]

132. I am sorry I missed him, Mr. Schiff is always worth listening to, excerpt from interview on FSN,

Here here is as a guest with Jim Puplava;

July 28th, First Hour;

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html


Peter Schiff:

"most people you know, assume when the U.S. economy collapses that the rest of the world is going to be dragged down with us, and my view is kind of the opposite what i'm thinking is that the United States is a giant dead weight on the global economy right now, we are not the engine that's pulling it, we are the caboose it drags behind. And we are a lot of dead weight and I say that because we are 300 million Americans who are just consuming a lot and borrowing a lot and that means the rest of the world has to work that much harder to support us. And if Americans stop consuming the world wouldn't be in trouble they would just have a lot more goods to consume themselves you know, it not like China, they have all these factories, they have the ability to produce goods and they have plenty of people there, you know and so if the dollar collapses, and the Yuan goes up 400% or 500% all the sudden everybody in China you know, is now wealthier and they just buy their own goods, it's America that's in trouble because all we have is people and paper money but without the factories without the capital and the know how we can't produce the goods, the Chinese have the goods, they don't have to send them over here so I think you are going to see a lot of opportunities abroad"

.....This premise figure large in his book as well.

edited for egregious spelling error..

[mojavekid]

141. The Australian: US a paper tiger, says doomsayer

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22232593-643,00.html

LISTENING to economist Peter Schiff you'd think the US should just fold the tent and call game over. He's one of the doomsayers having a day in the sun as the US stock market plummets. A regular on the business shows, Schiff is shouting from the rooftops that this is the beginning of the end for the US economy.

The disturbing thing is he's been right so far, making his clients at his Connecticut-based brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital wealthy by having predicted years ago that the US dollar would start falling and tipping them into euro-denominated assets.

Among his predictions: a housing-led slump, even depression, with at least a 20 per cent US economic contraction. He says the US dollar will lose half its value.

Where once it was about saving, investment and production, now the US is more about massive consumption on borrowed money. "We have a very sick economy -- it's been papered over because everyone around the world has been willing to lend us money," Schiff tells The Australian. "Now they are finding we can't pay them back."

"Everyone thinks the US is the No1 economy in the world. We're not. All we've been doing is consuming stuff on borrowed money. There's no savings."

Schiff is scathing about the mortgage fallout that has caused the current global market shake-up. Sub-prime mortgages -- money lent to low-creditworthy borrowers -- were "crap", but packaged up and sold around the world.

Now that the loans are being called-in and borrowers can't pay-up, Schiff predicts dire repercussions for the US. "America is going to lose access to the world's credit markets. If someone here wants to borrow money now they are going to have to borrow from another American."

To many, these claims are fanciful and most economists, while predicting an economic slowdown, are not predicting a recession. "The US economy has its problems but fundamentally it is really strong," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys.com. "The US economy is enjoying six years of growth, unemployment is low and inflation is low."

more...

[ramapo]

79. It is difficult to make sense of this

For the last week it looked like maybe it was finally time to pay the piper for years of financially reckless behavior ranging from loose credit to the inappropriate popularity of hedge funds. The housing and consumer markets have run on the fumes of debt and our monetary policy has been to do anything and everything necessary to keep the fire going.

Now if I get this right, money was tight because of the "overnight" realization that some of the mortgage emperors were wearing no clothes. What a surprise, lend money to people with no money to pay it back and look what happens, they default. So money (that came from where exactly?) was injected into the system over the past few days to "make up" for this lost money.

That still wasn't enough so the Fed makes money cheaper to borrow. And that money comes from where?

Suddenly the crowd is cheering as it looks like the home team is going to win another one for the Gipper. Happy days are here again and the Dow can continue its ascent that can never end.

Now I certainly like to see my very conservative portfolio grow and I don't like to see its value decline but for some reason I don't feel like cheering.

Perhaps I'm old fashioned, naive, or just plain dumb, but I do not have the sense that our economy is healthy, or that our markets have a fundamentally strong foundation. To me, this manic behavior is an indication of a deeper illness and the longer the patient puts off treatment the worse the cure is going to be.

So have the declines of the past week been a gross over reaction? Is an economy based on deficit spending and easy money something to be happy about? Maybe I should just not worry and be happy.

[DemReadingDU]

91. I echo your posting

The economy is not healthy. Sooner or later, the jig is up, and the game is over.

[Hugin]

101. "run on the fumes of debt"

Excellent quote!

:)

Explains all the sputtering out there recently.

[nadinbrzezinski]

107. If I may

I echo your sentiment, the economy is NOT healthy and the paralells to 1929 at the Macro level are just staggering

What we didn't have back then was massive federal intervention in the system (what we saw this week)... nor did we have stop in trade (again what we saw this week)

They are trying to hold this off until Junior leaves, but what we saw is a preview of coming atractions... though for the moment we seemed to have found the floor

Oh and as to the liquidity crisis... we had one also in 1929

When the Dow Jones finally goes up in smoke, as it were, its the last act. They are symbolic of the crisis, not the crisis itself

The last place for confidence to fitter and finally show is the exchance.

I know, far from conventional

Also, to be brutally honest, they don't truly understand how the beast works... they truly don't... nobody does. It has its own dynamics and at points chaos theory works. Yep, what happens in the Nikkei will affect the dow and what happens in mainstreet will send the nikkei tumbling... kind of like the flutter of wings of a bird in China....

[Dogmudgeon]

84. Pump. And. Dump.

This is NOT going anywhere ... productive.

--p!

[UpInArms]

85. Life insurers subprime exposure 'manageable': Fitch

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1745692520070817

NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Fitch, one of the three U.S. major rating agencies, said in a report on Friday that the subprime mortgage exposure of U.S. life insurers was "manageable," with no individual life company having direct exposure that would be a credit issue.

Fitch said the life insurers' exposure to problem subprime and Alt-A residential mortgage collateral was limited and largely in high investment-grade securities with significant protection -- with layers underneath them that would have to fail before the insurers' collateral would be in danger.

...a bit more...

hmmmm..... it seems that almost as soon as someone comes out with "exposure manageable" stories, it shows the weakness involved :eyes:

[Nimrod2005]

89. This means it is not, watch out for the blowup

[wordpix]

103. not up to speed---life insurance cos. investing in subprime market?

Seems like everyone wanted to get in on the high risk, fast buck tightrope act.

[Hugin]

154. Yep... They're next to go.

How can they mess up? Name one other industry where they are truly handed "Money for Nothing".

Yet, they manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory every time... This is always
due to greed. We lowly serfs just can't hand money to them fast enough.

[54anickel]

111. UIA, you reminded me of a letter I got the other day from the insurance company.

They were informing me that they'll be doing credit checks on all their "insurees" and adjusting rates accordingly. :eyes:

Our credit is fine, but you know how one of my pet peeves is this whole "can't be a participant in today's society without a credit check" boon-doggle for the big 3. I already hated the fact that I was asked to supply my SS# for phone service, utilities, a freaking job application, etc. I went thru hoops and tons of red-tape fighting their demands for my SS# (strictly based on the principal of the thing). Then come to find out I'd have to pay each of the credit rating companies a yearly fee to not give out any info without my explicit permission since the State of WI so kindly published my SS#. I believe is entirely backward - they should have to require my permission to dole out my credit info and the requestor should pay the GD fee....but I digress.

So anyway, now my insurance rates will be determined by the score given me by the Credit Rating Trinity.

I suppose they're figuring if your credit sucks, and you may just get desperate during the up-coming global liquidity crunch to commit some sort of insurance fraud like backing into people on an off-ramp or sumptin. :eyes:

Oh, got a call yesterday from National Mortgage company - wanting to know about my current mortgage --- attempting to drum up some business during the current turmoil I suppose. He was somewhat surprised that I had no need for either a mortgage or an equity line of credit. Wonder if his surprise was based on the demographics of this "Yuppieville of McMansions" that has managed to surround my humble, once very rural, abode. :shrug:

[mojavekid]

119. Exactly n/t

[Ghost Dog]

87. European stocks leap after Fed cut

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9c0c0d5a-4cac-11dc-a51d-0000779fd2ac.html

European equity markets leapt higher on Friday having endured a dizzying morning of volatility after the Federal Reserve cut its primary discount rate.

The discount rate, the emergency rate at which it lends to banks which run short on liquidity, was cut by 50 basis points to 5.75 per cent, while an accompanying statement hinted the main Fed funds rate, currently standing at 5.25 per cent would likely be cut at a forthcoming policy meeting.

“Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward,” the Federal Reserve said.

It added the that the Federal Open Market Committee thought that “the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably.”

By mid afternoon, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 3 per cent at 1,483.3, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax was 2.6 per cent higher at 7,457.52, the CAC 40 in Paris climbed 3.2 per cent to 5,431.44 and London’s FTSE 100 leaped 3.6 per cent to 6,070.3.

Banks soared. France’s Societe Generale climbed 6.9 per cent to €121.78, BNP Paribas rose 7.5 per cent to €80.27 and Natixis, the French mortgage lender, added 9.6 per cent to €15.40.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

88. Fed discount rate cut sends Europe stocks surging

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-08-17T153931Z_01_L17777394_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-CLOSE-URGENT.XML

PARIS, Aug 17 (Reuters) - European stocks closed higher on Friday, after a roller coaster session, as a surprise discount rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve eased worries over the credit market and sent shares of financial institutions sharply higher.

Among the biggest gainers, HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile , Research) surged 4.7 percent, while Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile , Research) jumped 6 percent and ABN AMRO (AAH.AS: Quote, Profile , Research) soared 5.4 percent.

...

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> unofficially closed 2.4 percent higher, at 1,475.99 points, after rising as much as 3.5 percent after the Fed's move. The benchmark index, which closed the week 0.2 percent down, had dropped to a year low of 1,426.51 earlier in the session.

[Roland99]

92. 12:20pm - Over half of initial 300+pt gain given up. Back under 13k

Dow 12,993.16 +147.38
Nasdaq 2,486.36 +35.29
S&P 500 1,433.34 +22.07
10 YR 4.67% +0.07
Oil $72.00 +$1.00
Gold $668.00 +$10.00

[Hugin]

97. It may 'surge' late this afternoon...

Alas, not as breathtaking as Cramer was suggesting, but, where else is there for
the 'haves' to put their money?

[Buttercup McToots]

94. USD$ @81.26

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

99. What's Dodd out there doing?

01. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac should be allowed more loans: Dodd
12:09 PM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 48 minutes ago

02. Sen. Dodd assumes Fed will cut federal funds rate
12:09 PM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 48 minutes ago

03. Sen. Dodd: Fed should be 'vigilant' about liquidity
12:09 PM ET, Aug 17, 2007 - 48 minutes ago

[wordpix]

105. he is chair of Senate Banking Comm.---also a great senator, IMO. I listen to him

[54anickel]

117. UIA, they'll all pretty much want to protect the status quo. Which means using

tax dollars (thru the GSEs) to bail out the idiot lenders who may have gone a bit too far in their reach for greed. It's been the same cycle since the robber barron days. Calling an end to the games would be way too risky. Keep the game going or come up with an "new and improved" version (hence the "it's different this time mantra") ie Trickle-down, Reaganomics, Guns and Butter. Whatever keeps the little-guy in the dark and the corporations happy. They'll keep pulling the same sh*t until one day it doesn't work anymore and we get a repeat of The Great Depression.

[mojavekid]

122. Spot on, The GSEs are going to be the black holes where they (will) throw,

all the bad, bad debt bought from the lenders...seeing as we don't see quarterly financials from them anymore, out of sight out of mind. Freddie for all intents is already bankrupt for that very reason!

[Roland99]

102. Run on banks in LA amid crisis; Wal-Mart CEO says customers are 'running out of money'

Run on banks in LA amid crisis; Wal-Mart CEO says customers are 'running out of money'
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Across_country_red_flags_could_signal_0817.html

"Economists said the sluggish performance of the chains — Wal-Mart missed its profit forecast and Home Depot’s earnings dropped — could signal broader troubles in the economy."

Buried in the article was a sobering remark indeed: “Many customers are running out of money at the end of the month,” said H. Lee Scott Jr., the chief executive of Wal-Mart.

...

"The rush to withdraw money -- by depositors that included a former Los Angeles Kings star hockey player and an executive of a rival home-loan company -- came a day after fears arose that Countrywide Financial could file for bankruptcy protection because of a worsening credit crunch stemming from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown," the paper continued.

"At Countrywide Bank offices, in a scene rare since the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis ended in the early '90s, so many people showed up to take out some or all of their money that in some cases they had to leave their names," the Times added. "Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to Countrywide's Laguna Niguel office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000, which he then wired to an account at Bank of America."

[wordpix]

106. Bill driving the Porsche should watch out since Countrywide et. al took out loans from big banks

[jdog]

108. Anybody here worried

Anybody here worried about the money they have in their bank accounts?

[DemReadingDU]

121. bank savings accounts and bank CDs are FDIC

They should be safe. Maybe someone with more knowledge could provide info otherwise.

[wordpix]

123. I could worry about the federal $8.5 trillion deficit---what if the creditors want the dough?

Does our "insured" money matter then? :shrug::eyes:

How does the fed deficit relate to FDIC insured money? I don't know but if US creditors "run on the banks," or their debtors, who knows what could happen? I am hoping Geo. W. Bush & Co. will pay it back out of their pockets. :evilgrin: Yeah, right.

[ozymandius]

124. As long as your bank is FDIC insured your money should be okay.

The insurance is only for the first $100k though. I know someone who is quite wealthy. He has his money spread around several banks since his balances exceed the FDIC insurance limit.

[jdog]

131. Call me skeptical

but I have to wonder what the state of the funds held by the FDIC are under this adminstration. That, along with other government "insurance" programs would have been looted I'm guessing. I'll research a bit and post back here if I find anything of interest.

[mojavekid]

136. Perhaps also to be considered,

the risk to the longer term "value" of your money held in these accounts, the Gov't does guarantee deposits up to $100,000K but what about the ravages of inflation?,devaluation?, and possible restrictions on withdrawal in a crisis a la Argentina....? When your dollars buy half of what they did before...I know, a little :tinfoilhat: but it is a consideration...

There was a great quote from a Sen in the 50's or 60's and I will have to try and find it, and it was related to Social Security payments, who said something to the effect that "the Government will always pay (Social Security) the dollars may be worthless, but the Gov't will always meet their obligation.

a lot of ifs and such...which I try to avoid...!

-mojavekid

edited for another unforgiable bout of lousy spelling...

[jdog]

145. Agreed.

I have to say though, it's hardly tin foil hat stuff to anyone who has done their homework. Wow, people working together to further their own enrichment and power, who would uh thunk!

[wordpix]

156. thanks, let us know!

[ramapo]

142. Not if it's a bank or two

Unless it's a biggie like Chase, but they'd never let Chase fail outright.

Stay below the 100K threshold and you're fine with any bank. FDIC will always pay. If all lot of banks go....well FDIC will still pay, it's just that the dollar might not be worth a whole lot.

[nadinbrzezinski]

104. Today's it is mostly in possitive territory

Europe was as well

Did we find the floor? And how much did the feds have to do with this?

[ramapo]

130. Fed Panic

My broker called me earlier in the day with his interpretation of the latest turn of events.

The half-point cut by the Fed is an act of panic. The fact that they skipped the usual quarter point move, plus the sudden action, indicate that things are even worse than they appear.

Much of the morning's huge surge was the covering of short positions, not positive sentiment.

If the market doesn't close up at least 100 points today then Monday might be especially ugly. It's not time to break out the champagne.

[nadinbrzezinski]

139. Oh trust me, I am not breaking the champagne

left the puter to go get groceries, and while having breakfast heard of the half point

I went.

THAT explains it

They eased the liquidity crunch

And as I said in another post... the Dow is the last place where you see the problems with the economy

And we both know they are severe

[ozymandius]

109. 1:22

Dow 12,993.56 Up 147.78 (1.15%)
Nasdaq 2,485.42 Up 34.35 (1.40%)
S&P 500 1,434.48 Up 23.21 (1.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.679% Up 0.079
NYSE Volume 1,768,273,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,538,442,000

1:00 pm : Not much has changed since the last update, but the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. The Dow is holding steady above 13,000, getting its biggest lift from a 3.4% surge in Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.44 +2.77). JP Morgan Chase (JPM 47.20 +1.73) is turning in the best performance on a percentage basis (+3.8%).

Of the other 24 components catching a bid, notable names trading sharply higher include AIG +3.1%, BA +2.5%, C +2.8%, GE +2.7%, HD +2.5%, HPQ +2.5%, and MMM +2.1%.

A 1.7% advance on the S&P 500 easily keeps it back in positive territory for the year. As of yesterday's close, the S&P 500's modest 0.3% still left it down 0.5% for 2007 and about 9.1% below its July 19 record finish. DJ30 +156.34 NASDAQ +34.34 SP500 +23.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 817/2181 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 509/2810/1.39 bln

12:30 pm : The afternoon session gets underway with stocks retracing their best levels of the morning. The Financial sector is picking up steam as its 3.3% surge now leaves it year-to-date decline at around 7.0%. It was down as much as 14% on the year during Wednesday's losing session.

After trading up at 5.375% just an hour ago, the Fed Funds rate trading back down to 5.25% and matching the Fed's target rate is offering added relief. DJ30 +161.27 NASDAQ +34.50 SP500 +23.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 827/2137/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 573/2710/1.27 bln

[DLnyc]

110. ?? Anyone else find finance.yahoo.com frozen at 12:54 pm ??

[nadinbrzezinski]

112. It is

[54anickel]

113. Try MoneyCentral - Here's the 1:35 numbers

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/home.aspx

Indexes
Name Last Change %Change
Dow 13,030.63 +184.85 +1.44%
Nasdaq 2,496.15 +45.08 +1.84%
S&P 1,440.29 +29.02 +2.06%

[DLnyc]

115. That works. Thanks.

(Kinda weird for yahoo to freeze like that, though)

[54anickel]

120. It's happened before. Yahoo tends to get some heavy traffic and they

have a habit of "tweaking" the appearance of their site. Odds are 10 to 1 that when they come back up, something will have a little different look or feel to it. That's been my experience in the past anyway.

[ozymandius]

114. I found that.

The time stamp at the top of the page seems to be working okay. But the market updates are Kaput.

[TrogL]

118. Loonie Watch

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

(added today's numbers)

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-07-17 Tuesday, July 17 0.958313 USD
2007-07-18 Wednesday, July 18 0.958313 USD
2007-07-19 Thursday, July 19 0.959233 USD
2007-07-20 Friday, July 20 0.957854 USD
2007-07-23 Monday, July 23 0.956938 USD
2007-07-24 Tuesday, July 24 0.964134 USD
2007-07-25 Wednesday, July 25 0.959417 USD
2007-07-26 Thursday, July 26 0.952018 USD
2007-07-27 Friday, July 27 0.944287 USD
2007-07-30 Monday, July 30 0.935541 USD
2007-07-31 Tuesday, July 31 0.938438 USD
2007-08-01 Wednesday, August 1 0.946522 USD
2007-08-02 Thursday, August 2 0.949848 USD
2007-08-03 Friday, August 3 0.950029 USD
2007-08-06 Monday, August 6 0.951203 USD
2007-08-07 Tuesday, August 7 0.947598 USD
2007-08-08 Wednesday, August 8 0.952653 USD
2007-08-09 Thursday, August 9 0.946432 USD
2007-08-10 Friday, August 10 0.948947 USD
2007-08-13 Monday, August 13 0.951656 USD
2007-08-14 Tuesday, August 14 0.940291 USD
2007-08-15 Wednesday, August 15 0.930579 USD
2007-08-16 Thursday, August 16 0.929887 USD
2007-08-17 Friday, August 17 0.940291 USD


Current values

Loonie:

Last trade 0.9438 Change +0.0155 (+1.67%)
Previous Close 0.9283 Open 0.9343
Low 0.9343 High 0.9475


Other combinations:

AS.M07 AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 0.8354 -0.0096
RA.M07 EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.7076 +0.0679
HY.M07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 104.110 -0.565
GB.M07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Sep (NYBOT) 0.6783 +0.0036
EP.M07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.42880 -0.01425
EJ.M07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 153.83 +2.63
EU.M07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.34135 -0.00670


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .9084 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9464 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.


...and from (http://quotes.ino.com)

The European markets rose for the first time in four days on Friday after the US Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered its discount rate on loans to banks in another attempt to restore stability to the financial markets that have been shattered by credit worries...

Analysis

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

I've got a car radio again. On pure impulse I went into a pawn shop and he had the exact model sitting on the shelf, so I bought it, took the faceplace off, put it in the dash and the radio booted. It even saved all my settings including the time. Hence, I can now again listen to teh morning drivein show.

The market guy was trying to avoid showing he was having a nervous breakdown, basically saying "you think that correction was bad - you oughta have seen the one in (whatever year it was)". Be that as it may, he was shocked at the sudden jump in the loonie and baffled by late yesterday's announcement of the interest rate change down South. I cringe to think about what Monbatu guru's gonna have to say/scream about it. Things are crazy down there because there's too much liquidity. Dropping the rate is throwing gasoline on the fire.

The CBC guy made a point about the TSX reacting differently to various bits of news because the Canadian economy is fundamentally different than the States ie. it actually has fundamentals, which are strong right now and getting stronger because of brain-drain and capital looking for a safe place to live coming up from the States.

[mojavekid]

128. Mogambo Guru: Two Days to Make $300 Billion, Part I

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/aug172007.html

The central banks of the world have created around $300 billion worth of new money and debt - in two lousy freaking days! And why are they doing this? Perhaps it has something to do with how Michael A. Nystrom at BullnotBull.com says that "one of the most profound comments ever to appear on BullNotBull.com" is in connection to a question about this very aspect of our "money-comes-from-debt" economic system, namely, "I have heard that if all debts were repaid, there would be no 'money' left. Is this true?"

Mr. Nystrom answers, "The short answer to this - thanks to the central bankers - is yes."

And a linear extrapolation from that is that if no new debt were created, there would be no new money! And there is a corollary with that, too, namely that inflation in prices cannot take place unless there is more new money in the system, and without new money and inflation in the system, the whole stinking American "services" economy and its stupid system of tax-crazed, welfare-dispensing, inflation-worshipping, debt-addled, asset-inflating and thoroughly boneheaded governments go down the freaking drain and take everybody with them.

And the little cowards in government don't even tax me to my face, but sneak around adding taxes and fees to things, driving up the cost of things! For example, I just got a notice from my insurance company that three new "emergency" taxes have been added to my insurance bill this year, two of them being from the Florida Insurance Guaranty Association and one from the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Emergency Assessment, for a total of $2.37. It ain't much, I'll agree, but it is the "death of a thousand cuts" of constantly nickel and diming me, all the time, nickels and dimes, with the occasional hefty pile of dollars ripped from my wallet

more...

;;;I guess this is the Mogambos new format, shorter and more frequent commentary. I miss the old format where he gets on a roll...plus I miss "Mogambo sez" If I am missing that it is posted elsewhere in the origonal longer form, could someone please clue me in!?! Thanks!

[UpInArms]

133. 2:45 EST ponies for almost everyone!

DJIA 13016.65 170.87
Nasdaq 2490.69 39.62
S&P 500 1436.34 25.07
Rus 2000 786.56 17.73
10 Yr Bd 4.67 0.02
DJTA 4747.63 75.28
Wil 5000 14448.15 257.79
S&P 400 834.80 13.97
Nas 100 1874.67 28.58

[mojavekid]

134. Bloomberg: Retracted Memos, Canceled Vacations: Fed Cut Shocks (Update1)

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alNI787E64bc&refer=home

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- RBS Greenwich Capital Markets strategist Kenneth Hackel sent a note to investors from his Greenwich, Connecticut, office at 8 a.m. saying he saw ``few signs that the distress has abated'' in risky asset classes.

Less than an hour later, Hackel sent another: ``Fed action wipes out our earlier message.''

The Federal Reserve's 8:15 a.m. announcement that it cut the discount rate today took traders by surprise, sending futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index up 3.6 percent in 46 seconds and erasing a 0.4 percent decline. Two-year U.S. Treasury notes fell after the announcement before reversing course as traders tried to figure out the implications of the Fed's move.

``I just had no clue'' it would happen, said Marilyn Cohen, who manages $250 million in fixed-income at Envision Capital Management in Los Angeles. ``It was a great surprise. My question is: Are we all having fun yet?''

The S&P 500 surged as much as 2.8 percent, after tumbling 9.1 percent through yesterday from a July 19 record on concerns losses on mortgages will hurt bank earnings and cause borrowing costs to rise. Yields on three-month bills climbed as much as 23 basis points, or 0.23 percentage point, in the hour and 15 minutes after the Fed announcement, before paring the increase.

more...

[ramapo]

135. What is wrong with this picture?

This just makes my head hurt.

I must just be stupid. How does cutting the cost of short-term money by a half percent erase the structural problems of an economy based on excessive debt?

You would think people in the business would know better (or maybe just not pretend) that the Fed action made everything ok.

[radfringe]

137. they are counting on the fed to fix problems

caused by greed...

amazing how fast money can be found for some people, while others have to wait and wait and pray and hope and wait and wait..........

[fedsron2us]

147. This may answer your questions

http://longorshortcapital.com/bernanke-in-pictures.htm

It means little apart from the fact that people were clamoring for some sort of rate cut so Bernanke gave them one. Whether it is of any technical significant is probably irrelevant as the move was largely about the psychology of the market. I suspect the Fed was more concerned about the political and propaganda influence of the cut rather than its long term impact on the current credit problems which is likely to be minimal. The timing was as important as the content of the announcement since it was made on an options expiration day which increased its impact. A lot of traders were probably going to have to buy stocks today to cover some of their short positions so the market was poised to bounce anyway. The Fed just hoped to amplify the effect. In fact given the DOW was up 300 points early in the day the final lift was not that huge and there were hints of some attempts to sell into the rally at the close. I suspect that their are still a lot of people going to short the market going forward.

[mojavekid]

138. Bloomberg: Asset-Backed CP Yields Rise in Face of Fed Rate Cut (Update1)

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4bhWDF.iRoo&refer=home

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asset-backed commercial paper yields soared by the most since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks after the Federal Reserve cut its discount rate to try to calm financial markets.

Top-rated asset-backed commercial paper maturing Aug. 20 yielded 5.99 percent, up 39 basis points since yesterday and the most since a 45 basis point increase on Sept. 20 in the wake of the terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington.

Issuers are offering the highest rates in almost seven years to entice lenders who are trying to avoid taking mortgage- backed securities as collateral to avoid exposure to losses from U.S. subprime mortgage delinquencies.

The Fed's action ``may help add confidence that action will be taken when it's necessary, but further action is needed to actually offset the credit contraction we have had,'' Ashish Shah, global head of credit strategy at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said in interview from New York. ``No one actually wants to tap the Fed window. So while this is good, it doesn't actually add any liquidity into the system. It's more of a confidence booster.''

more....

and not good...

[A HERETIC I AM]

140. Dow 30 biggest gainers and losers

Biggest gainer - Exxon Mobil - up 3.29
Biggest loser - Du Pont - down 0.69
5 losers, 25 gainers
0 lost more than 1.00
3 lost less than .50
14 gained more than 1.00
5 gained less than .50

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

143. Now, if my roulette croupier would just cut the vig from 5.26% to 2.7%.

[JNelson6563]

144. Sorry I missed the show Marketeers!

I was at our local Dem office all day as we were installing a new, wicked cool computer and then rearranging our whole tech-set-up.

Anyhow I did catch where they lowered rates but didn't really lower rates :eyes: Watched as the futures did a complete flip in minutes, down 150 and in just a bit, up 125 or so. I peeked at yahoo's chart mid-day and saw the DOW up 150 or so. Thought "ZOWIE!"

All the fundamentals are still bad but hey, if I can buy on margin cheaper, lemme at it!

Oy.

Thanks for a rockin' week Marketeers! I really enjoyed the info and insights and of course, the priceless Marketeer humor. I hope you all have a fabulous weekend. Catch you on Monday!

:toast:

Julie

[jdog]

146. Re: FDIC "insurance"

I don't know who runs this web site, but found this very interesting reading. Thought others might too.

[A HERETIC I AM]

148. Did you mean to attach a link and forgot, perhaps?

Which website?

[jdog]

149. Oh man!

thanks. I'll see if I can find it again - I never looked back at my post to see it wasn't there. :blush:

[jdog]

150. Here's the link. Sorry. (I don't post much.)

http://www.ascotadvisory.com/Offshore_Investments/FDIC.html

[jdog]

151. Just a little snip from there

The following chart taken directly from the FDIC website indicates that the Bank Insurance Fund ONLY has 1.24% coverage and that this is in fact below the 1.25% minimum reserve ratio THEY have established (so they are below their own minimum guidelines). In short, how well do you feel knowing that the FDIC can only payout US$1.24 for each US$100 you have on deposit with your local US bank (should your bank go under)? Only you can answer that, but I certainly am not thrilled about it.
.
.
http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/grgraph.asp?rptdate=/qbp/2002mar
.

[DemReadingDU]

153. That's scary

Thanks for posting the link. I had no idea that FDIC operated like this.

[wordpix]

157. oy vey

[ozymandius]

152. end note: Nothing to see here. Everything's great. Die another day.

Dow 13,079.08 Up 233.30 (1.82%)
Nasdaq 2,505.03 Up 53.96 (2.20%)
S&P 500 1,445.94 Up 34.67 (2.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.673% Up 0.073
NYSE Volume 767,621,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,638,906,000

4:20 pm : Stocks rallied Friday after a surprise move by the Fed to cut its discount rate in an effort to ease fears about a liquidity crisis leading to a credit crunch.

Although the Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged, the decision to cut the discount rate, and the reasoning from the Fed for doing so, was seen by many as laying the groundwork for a cut in the fed funds rate sometime soon.

The S&P 500 vaulted back into positive territory for the year. After closing lower over the last six straight sessions, the Dow and Nasdaq snapped their losing streaks.

Although today's relief rally was significant and reduces downside risk, the major averages did not garner enough of a surge to finish with weekly gains.

With the growing realization that liquidity was not getting to where it was needed, despite several sizable Fed infusions into the banking system, the Fed unexpectedly and unanimously cut the discount rate by 50 basis points, to 5.75% from 6.25%. Policy makers said "market conditions have deteriorated" and "downside risks have increased appreciably" since the last FOMC meeting on August 7.

The Fed's actions and comments helped alleviate the worst of fears that liquidity problems will turn into a full-fledged credit crunch. Importantly, by using the discount rate as a policy tool at this point, it kept the Fed's credibility intact as the action doesn't appear inconsistent with recent policy statements dealing with the fed funds rate that emphasize concerns about inflation.

However, the Fed's comments did suggest a cut in the fed funds rate is possible.

The major European bourses were slightly lower before the Fed stepped in to help ease liquidity problems in the banking system but rallied on the news to close up 2.3% on average. Japan's Nikkei 225 plunged 5.4%, logging its biggest one-day percentage loss since 2001 as the yen climbed to fresh 14-month highs against the dollar. However, it was closed and unable to benefit from the Fed saying that it stands ready to "act as needed" to help the U.S. economy.

Not surprising, the sector that had been hit the hardest by underlying credit concerns for several weeks -- Financials (+3.6%) -- led the charge and fueled a relief rally that pushed all major indices up more than 2.5% on average right out of the gate.

While a dramatic steepening in the yield curve following the Fed's decision helped rate-sensitive banks (BKX +3.5%) and brokers (XBD +4.1%), investors placing bets on even further downside in depressed financial stocks ran for cover. Already benefiting from an analyst upgrade, Countrywide Financial (CFC 21.40 +2.45) was the sector's best performer (+13%) and among the most active stocks on the S&P 500.

Of the other nine sectors closing sharply higher, Energy turned in a similarly strong performance. The increasingly influential sector piggybacked on a rebound in oil prices following the commodity's 3.2% sell-off Thursday. Crude for September delivery rose 1.4% and closed near $72/bbl as Dean strengthening into a category 3 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean raised concerns about supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.

Crude got an added lift following the Fed's latest efforts to prevent a more severe economic downturn and traders' tentativeness to be short over the weekend.

The monthly expiration of index options this morning also exacerbated the broad-based move to the upside at the onset of today's action. Volume was well above normal, in part due to today's double witching, and provided even more conviction behind a rally that left all 10 sectors surging 2.4% on average and the majors closing near their best levels of the afternoon. DJ30 +233.30 NASDAQ +53.96 SP500 +34.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 855/2237/2.47 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 438/2956/2.30 bln