Shiites seek cease-fire from cleric

[rodeodance]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061221/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_politics

Shiites seek cease-fire from cleric

By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 13 minutes ago

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Delegates representing Shiite groups forming the largest bloc in
Iraq's parliament gathered Thursday at the home of the country's top Shiite cleric to seek his blessing for a new coalition that would promote national reconciliation.

............

As violence rages across Baghdad and much of Iraq, a new coalition taking shape among Shiites, Kurds and one Sunni party is seen as an ultimate effort to form a government across sectarian divisions that have split the country. While al-Sadr's movement would not be part of this coalition, such an alliance — which reportedly is supported by the Bush administration — might pressure the radical cleric to soften his stance.

In Thursday's meeting, the group wants to assure al-Sistani that the new coalition would not break apart the Shiite bloc, said officials from several Shiite parties. Potential members of the coalition said they have been negotiating for two weeks, and now want the blessing of al-Sistani, whose word many Shiites consider binding.

The movement is backed by the U.S. government, said Sami al-Askari, a member of the Dawa party and an adviser to al-Maliki.

[Kagemusha]

1. It wouldn't break the Shiite bloc...!?!

You're not supposed to lie to Grand Ayatollahs, are you?

[Teaser]

2. this coalition will exist in name only

and will not change a thing.

Nothing in Iraq changes, except for the worse. Why should this do anything at all?

Seriously, the government in Iraq has shown itself utterly ineffectual. Moving someone out of government, or other parties into government doesn't change this equation. Sadr is powerful, and is the defacto shi'ah overlord in much of Iraq. His power comes from the popularity of his movement, his militia and the social services his organization delivers. These services do not depend on his party being part of the shell game that is the Iraqi government.

And moving him out of government doesn't give anyone an opening to attack him. It increases his legitimacy in popular opinion, and doesn't decrease it, as the government is widely despised anyway.

[necso]

3. An immediate all-parties cease-fire

is called for, with violators being taken-care-of by their own (although useful, reliable assistance in doing so should be made available to those authority figures who need it). -- There are those in Iraq who are operating essentially as gangsters (gangsters in the absence of any real law-enforcement -- what a mess!), although they adopt various guises*. And these criminal elements will need to be dealt with, especially since they are unlikely to respect any cease-fire.

As for these "political" plans, this is dangerous ground. Al-Sadr may be something like the de-facto government for many Shia, if not always unopposedly-so in terms of controlling various geographies.

And one almost never does well, when one ignores realities "on the ground" (as is said).

*: In the circumstances of Iraq, if one was going to engage in robberies, killings, etc, one does well to take advantage of some "cover": here some (essentially only asserted) cast to one's behavior that makes one appear better, or makes one appear like part of an accepted -- even idolized -- movement; and perhaps by doing so even put oneself under the protection of said (but not if this movement's (or whatever's) leader is wise -- uncontrollable, disloyal followers are worse than useless), all without really being under anyone's control: like, say, claiming to be a member of the Al-Mahdi Army -- without really giving a fig what al-Sadr says, at least when this conflicts with personal plans, personal desires, etc.

(On another note, militia "leaders" fairly frequently have little control over their "followers", a circumstance which effectively undermines the power of the militia "leader", perhaps even preventing him from ever becoming more than (such) a militia "leader". -- If the word "leader" can be used for such a person, even in quotations (here meaning that the use of the (quoted) word is questionable, since that being discussed doesn't have the requisite character to be accurately described (characterized) by the (quoted) word).)

...

On an entirely different note, I was struck by a reply I read the other day, and since I'd rather not hunt the original down -- or kick another thread -- I'm going to add something here (although it overlaps my book).

The relevant (herein) part of the comment was basically about keeping-in-mind that other people may perceive things that you don't (and that they don't tell you about; of course, you might not listen if they did tell you, and this might be part of their reticence -- in addition to the expected motive of their personal gain). (My breakdown includes this category of things; things no one perceives; etc.)

That is, people may know (understand, perceive, etc) and act on things that you don't. And this can give them an important advantage.

Therefore, one should be aware of this, and in the particular circumstance one should: consider whether another person knows (etc) something (important) that he isn't telling; think about what this information might be (perhaps financial data, other "secret" information, etc); and examine the behavior (taken broadly) of this other person to see if he gives away what he knows in some way.

(Of course, people will use misdirection in their behavior to set you on the wrong track, and the world is full of people who believe that they know something to be accurate when it isn't.)

For example (a housing-market relevant one), a distress sale is a distress sale not only because of the need of the seller, but because it's otherwise known that the seller is distressed. But suppose only one person knew of (the particulars of) the seller's distress, then this person would have potentially useful information (knowledge) that could give him an advantage over the seller, if not necessarily competitors.

And the world (and business/speculation in particular) works in this sort of way in no small part (people trying to keep things secret, using insider info; many people being clueless; etc), regardless of the spin put on it by various parties trying to make the reality: appear better; appear to be operating as it should; appear to be operating in accordance with some popular model, belief, etc; etc.

[sabra]

4. Report: Radical Iraqi cleric al-Sadr in cease-fire talks

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/21/iraq.politics.ap/index.html

Report: Radical Iraqi cleric al-Sadr in cease-fire talks

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who heads a militia feared by Iraq's Sunnis, is considering a one-month unilateral cease-fire and may push his followers to rejoin the political process after a three-week boycott, officials close to him said.

The issue is expected to come up at a meeting Thursday in the holy city of Najaf between al-Sadr and a delegation representing the seven Shiite groups that form the largest bloc in Iraq's parliament, the Shiite officials said on condition of anonymity because of the secrecy of the talks.

Half the delegates traveled to Najaf Wednesday night and were gathered Thursday morning at the home of the country's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, an official in al-Sistani's office said on condition of anonymity because of political sensitivities. The others were traveling to Najaf on Thursday, he said.

The visit is intended to allow the Shiite bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance, to work out some of Iraq's biggest political obstacles in front of al-Sistani, and to pressure al-Sadr to rein in his fighters and rejoin politics -- or face isolation, participants said.

[redqueen]

5. I hope he listens to reason.

I doubt the worst he has to fear is isolation.

[Jim__]

6. I wonder what a "troop surge" would do for that cease fire - n/t

[Eugene]

7. Reuters: Shi'ite officials press Iraq PM to tackle militias

Shi'ite officials press Iraq PM to tackle militias
21 Dec 2006 15:01:40 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Mariam Karouny

BAGHDAD, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Senior members of Iraq's Shi'ite Alliance are pressing
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to go after the Shi'ite militia loyal to cleric Moqtada
al-Sadr if he wants to save his government from collapse, Alliance sources say.

In a significant admission that forces linked to one of their own allies behind much
of the violence in Baghdad, the sources said Sadr's Mehdi Army was a serious threat
to the government and the Alliance risks losing everything.

"There are efforts to convince Moqtada's group to stop their actions. The state has
limited patience with these actions, it cannot be patient for ever," said Sami al-Askari,
a member of parliament for the Shi'ite Alliance.

-snip-

An Alliance delegation went to the holy city of Najaf on Thursday to seek a meeting
with Sadr and other religious leaders, one of the team said, without giving further
details.

-snip-

Full article: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PAR152157.htm

[HuffleClaw]

8. 'radical'

hilarious how they always manage to attach some cute label to those who aren't 100% supportive of BushCo..