STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 3

[ozymandius]

Friday November 3, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 808 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2137 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1843 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1804
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 2, 2006

Dow... 12,018.54 -12.48 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq... 2,334.02 -0.33 (-0.01%)
S&P 500... 1,367.34 -0.47 (-0.03%)
Gold future... 627.80 +8.50 (+1.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.71% +0.04 (+0.79%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.60% +0.04 (+0.77%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

MARKETS FAIL TO RALLY AFTER RELEASE OF MORE NEGATIVE ECONOMIC NEWS

The markets moved lower in early morning trading after the release of the productivity report and the mixed October sales report. Nonfarm productivity came to a standstill in the third quarter, with the quarter-over-quarter growth rate coming in at 0%, below the consensus of 1.0%, with unit labor costs (ULC) coming in at 3.8%, above expectations of 3.4%. Compared to third quarter of 2005, productivity rose 1.3% while ULC rose 5.3%. The trend since late 2005 has been for falling year-over-year (YOY) rates of change in productivity while the YOY rate of change for ULC has accelerated. Falling or flat productivity against the backdrop of rising ULC adds to inflationary pressures, not what the markets were looking for as many are hoping for the Fed to lower rates in the future.

-cut-

Although durable goods orders put in a strong performance in September, both the durable goods and nondurable goods industries inventory-to-shipments ratio (I/S) rose to their highest levels in over a year, with the overall I/S rising to 1.22, a three-year high. The I/S ratio for durable goods industries rose to 1.39 in September from 1.34 of the previous month, and nondurable goods rose to 1.03 from 0.98 in the prior month.

Another negative economic release was the weekly jobless claims report, with initial jobless claims rising 18,000 to 327,000 last week, well above the consensus estimate of 310,000 claims. The increase in claims last week brought the 4-week moving average up to 311,000 from 306,000.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's reports

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Oct
Briefing Forecast 135K
Market Expects 125K
Prior 51K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Oct
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.6%
Prior 4.6%

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Average Workweek Oct
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.8

10:00 AM ISM Services Oct
Briefing Forecast 55.0
Market Expects 54.5
Prior 52.9

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

7. 8:30 reports (and they are weird)

U.S. Oct. average workweek rises 6 minutes to 33.9 hours (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Oct. retail jobs down 3,000, services up 152,000 (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Oct. factory jobs down 39,000; construction down 26,000 (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Oct. average hourly earnings up 0.4% (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Sept. nonfarm payrolls up rev 148,000 vs 51,000 prev (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Oct. unemployment rate lowest since April '01 (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Oct. unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.6% in Sept. (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

U.S. Oct. nonfarm payrolls up 92,000 vs 123,000 expected (8:30 AM ET, Nov 03, 2006 - 56 seconds ago)

[UpInArms]

9. U.S. Oct. nonfarm payrolls up 92,000, rate drops to 4.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid={20DDB4E2-AA96-4028-8BBB-152539D43EC9}

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The labor market is on fairly firm footing, according to the latest government report released Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 92,000 in October, slightly below the 123,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. But that is only part of the picture. Job growth in August and September was revised higher by 139,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in October from 4.6% in the previous month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.6%. This is the lowest unemployment rate since April 2001. Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents, or 0.4% to $16.91. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 3.9% in the past year. The average workweek rose by six minutes to 33.9 hours. Economists were expecting the workweek to remain unchanged at 33.8 hours.

What with all the massive automotive industry layoffs and continuing plant shutdowns - for the unemployment rate to drop is insulting.

[rfranklin]

10. Unemployment rate drops BECAUSE they stop counting....

the chronically unemployed who cannot find a job and whose benefits run out. Why is it that this is accepted? The Republicans are always crowing about unemployment in Europe being so high--but in Europe they pay unemployment and count the real numbers.

[AnneD]

12. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers.
:hi:rfranklin. You hit upon one of the cruel ironic lies. They stop counting those chronically unemployed. This give a low number to start with. Now add to this the fact that those numb nuts on Wall Street seem to have forgotten that 2/3rds of this economy is due to consumer spending and tend to cheer when the unemployment goes up. The Fed's and government policy maker's look at WS's happy dance (over high unemployment) and think irrational exuberance and inflation. They bump up interest rates which in turn kill the middle class that was eking by. Now the middle class consumers have to cut back, causing layoffs. Rinse and repeat. I am not a pessimist by nature, but I don't see much improvement until we get real numbers and real change. A tax cut to an unemployed person is as wanted as hard Christmas to your toothless Granny, but that seem to be all these folks can come up with.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Hugin]

27. Morning AnneD!

*yawn* *scratch* *scratch*

:hangover:

"A tax cut to an unemployed person is as wanted as hard Christmas candy to your toothless Granny"

or to put it as my College room mate does...

"It's as useful as a Red Lobster(tm) two-for-one discount coupon to a homeless person."

Have a great one!

:)

[AnneD]

32. Morning Prag..

:donut: up early today? You redefine the term moonlighting. Have another cup o joe and welcome to the land of the over caffinated.;)

[Hugin]

36. I'm one of those 'life is the journey, not the destination' types...

:D

Thanks for the joe and what's on the boards? ;)

[54anickel]

26. Jobs Numbers Climb Ahead of Elections

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/MarketTalk/story?id=2626600&page=1

Nov. 3, 2006 — If the White House hasn't already hit your inbox — either work or personal — with an e-mail touting the lowest unemployment rate since the spring of 2001, you're probably too hard to reach.

Today's jobs report contained some surprises.

The headline number — 92,000 new jobs added — was a disappointment, but that was counteracted by massive upward revisions to previous monthly reports.

August's number saw an extra 42,000 jobs added (from 188,000 to 230,000), and September got a healthy 97,000 today (from 51,000 to 148,000).

The real surprise was the gift given to President Bush in the form of an unemployment number of 4.4 percent — down 0.2 percent from the previous month's number.

That's the lowest unemployment rate since April 2001. Expect the Republicans to loudly beat the drum with this statistic in the coming days — a sign that people are enjoying the benefits of a good economy under their stewardship.


snip>

Losing jobs: residential construction (-30,700), motor vehicles and parts (-14,700), plastics and rubber products (-13,800).

Adding workers: temporary help (+15,000), health care (+22,500), restaurants and bars (+26,700) and local governments (+30,100).

[Hugin]

28. Yep, the potato-chip jobs are up...

You know you can't just have one.

[ozymandius]

29. If I am the wiper of other people's bottoms

does each bottom count as new job?

[Hugin]

31. I'll bet they're counting 'poll workers' in those 'local gov't job' holders...

Hmmm... and probably in those 'temp jobs' as well.

Count each one, every chance you get.

[AnneD]

35. I've been known to...

push some folks buttons-I do that for free (you should see me on the phone bank-I really love to crack that beautiful world/beautiful mind fascade).

Wiping buttons-well I'll do my own and help any kid under 18 months, but the rest of you are on your own.:evilgrin:

[54anickel]

38. Bwahahahaha! Good one Prag. Though now I've got that stupid jingle

stuck in my noodle.

[Hugin]

42. .

I should've checked with BuyBlue before I used it. ;)

[54anickel]

49. Treasuries Slump Most in 16 Months as U.S. Jobless Rate Drops

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aEsJEsWVctfg&refer=bond

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries slumped the most since July 2005 after a government report showed the nation's jobless rate declined to a five-year low in October.

Traders erased bets the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by February as the statistics also showed companies added more jobs in prior months than the government previously estimated, and hourly earnings increased. Notes extended losses on statistics showing service industries accelerating.

``The bond market, which had tried to price in a Fed cut, is backtracking,'' said Michael Cheah, who manages $2 billion in bonds at AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. The labor report ``suggests the economy is still strong and there's the possibility of wage pressure.''

``It tells the bond market that growth going forward may be higher than you think or the slowdown may be deferred longer,'' said Thomas Atteberry, who manages $2.3 billion in fixed-income assets at First Pacific Advisors in Los Angeles. ``There's more pressure upward for interest rates than down.''

Interest-rate futures show traders erased bets on a Fed rate cut by January after the reports. Earlier today, traders still saw a 14 percent chance the central bank would cut its target a quarter-percentage point to 5 percent by the end of January. Traders now see a 6 percent chance of a cut by March, down from 100 percent earlier this week.

Mission Accomplished :eyes:

[54anickel]

17. Retail sales up 3%, the worst in four months

http://www.startribune.com/535/story/784820.html

Retail sales in October rose the least in four months, as consumers held off on spending ahead of the holiday season. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. forecast its worst sales in more than 10 years.

October sales at 57 chains surveyed by the International Council of Shopping Centers rose 3 percent from a year earlier, the slowest growth since June. Cool weather spurred demand for clothes at department stores including Federated Department Stores Inc., while most discounters, including Minneapolis-based Target Corp., and apparel outlets posted results that missed analysts' estimates. Sales rose 3.8 percent in September.

"The consumer took a break in October after going hog wild in September," said Ken Perkins, an analyst with Retail Metrics in Swampscott, Mass. "The consumer is going to hold up here in November and December."

snip>

"The news from Wal-Mart is definitely discouraging," Perkins said. "They are going to be very price-aggressive. And it is going to have an effect on everyone. It is going to force other retailers to cut their prices, which in turn will squeeze their profit margins."

Still, Perkins said he believes shoppers will regain their stride during the holiday shopping season.

more....

[AnneD]

44. What they didn't tell you

was much of that 'hog wild' spending in September was school clothes and supplies. Of course, folks will buy a few things for Christmas esp those with kids-but we won't be going wild in our house. I will be donating more to needy families and through my church.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise on Nigeria worries

LONDON - Oil prices rose Friday, recouping some of their recent declines, on worries about the kidnapping of oil workers in Nigeria and as the market awaited economic cues and evidence of OPEC's recently announced output cut.

Light sweet crude for December delivery rose 47 cents to $58.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. December Brent crude on the ICE Futures Exchange rose 46 cents to $58.33.

Markets were watching Nigeria, Africa's leading crude producer, where gunmen kidnapped an American and a British oil worker this week.

Citing a U.S. diplomatic official, Dow Jones Newswires reported that the U.S. embassy in Nigeria warned Friday that attacks by a militant group on up to 20 oil facilities in Nigeria may unfold within days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. ExxonMobil ready to discuss Indonesia's Natuna gas contract

JAKARTA (AFP) - US oil giant ExxonMobil is ready to start talks with the Indonesian government on renewing its rights to develop a major gas field in the Natuna Sea, the company said.

"While ExxonMobil believes that the current Natuna production sharing contract (PSC) remains valid, ExxonMobil has agreed to enter into mutually beneficial discussions (with the Indonesian government)," Exxon Mobil communications manager and public affairs officer Deva Rachman said in a statement.

"We expect these discussions to occur over the next several months," Rachman said, adding that ExxonMobil will in the meantime proceed with its technical and marketing activities for the project, due to come on-stream in 2014.

Indonesia terminated the PSC with ExxonMobil Corp for the gas field in the Natuna Sea off the west coast of Borneo, claiming the company failed to push ahead with development.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061103/bs_afp/indonesiaenergygasexxon_061103025753

[ozymandius]

5. Venezuela to sell D.C. oil at discount

Venezuela will provide heavily discounted heating oil to about 37,000 low-income families in Maryland, Virginia and the District this winter, Caracas' envoy to the United States said yesterday.

The local jurisdictions are beneficiaries of a greatly expanded program that this winter will assist more than 400,000 families in 16 U.S. states and the District, up from eight states and 180,000 families last year, said Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez Herrera.

Oil provided under the expanded program, first mentioned by President Hugo Chavez during a fiery speech to the United Nations in September, will be distributed through local governments, community centers and churches, and will be offered at 40 percent below the market price.

http://www.washtimes.com/world/20061102-123527-6184r.htm

From the Moonie Times... of all places

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.34 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

Dollar Looks to NFP

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollar_looks_to_NFP_1162550914766.html

Typical pre-NFP action in the currency market with majors moribund in 10 point ranges as everyone squares up for the marquee event of the month. In Australia, the AUG Performance of Service Index unexpectedly rose above the 50 boom/bust level printing at 52 versus 47.7 the month prior. The news should be supportive to the Aussie increasing the possibility of a rate hike to 6.25% by RBA next week. The unit however remained comatose much like the other major currencies as traders focused exclusively on the upcoming US data.

Meanwhile in UK Services PMI zoomed to 59.7 from 57.0 in September registering the highest reading since April and printing far above expectations. One of the more positive aspects of the report was the marked rise in new business as well as a rise in future expectations. Only the employment component showed some weakness slipping slightly from the month prior. Nevertheless the PMI services report is yet another solid argument for a BOE rate hike at its November MPC meeting next week. While the pound showed little strength against the greenback it rose against the euro with the EUR/GBP cross slipping below the .6700 level once again. The action in this cross has surprised most market analysts who had expected it strengthen as EZ rates climbed higher into the year end while UK rates remained stationary. In fact the opposite has happened. Despite Mr. Trichet’s hawkish rhetoric, the ECB chose to keep rates unchanged yesterday, while the BOE is now favored to move to 5% money in November. Should UK central bankers meet expectations the cross may see further weakness as long term positional bets will be forced to unwind.

Finally turning to NFP we will simply quote our colleague Kathy Lien who noted yesterday, “We believe that it would be quite disastrous to see anything less than 100k but judging from economic data that has already been released, this downside surprise will probably not materialize. “ In ADP we trust? Yes we do. Most critical to our mildly bullish stance on the payroll number is the fact that the payroll provider has been able to fine tune its forecast model and has accurately predicted the payroll results within 20K of the actual print for the past three months running. In the notoriously volatile NFP series this is the economic equivalent of bulls eye. With ADP estimates at 128K the NFP should be able to report gains in excess of 100K. Other tangential data such as the sharp drop off in Challenger layoff figures also point to slightly better results this month. Despite our guarded optimism the chance of a miss remains substantial especially in light of the fact that recent US economic data has hardly been robust. Nevertheless, the October NFP report may show a surprising burst of demand in the US economy perhaps spurred by lower energy costs to businesses. All of which may provide the dollar with some wind at its back.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Gold market supported above $620

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/markets.aspx?ID=BD4A309907

LONDON - Gold was steady on Friday after breaking above $620 an ounce, supported by uncertainty over the US economic outlook ahead of dollar-sensitive employment data later on Friday, dealers said.

"The market looks strong. The uptrend in gold recently is very much correlated to the move in the dollar and the link to oil has broken down, at least for the time being," Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec in Sydney, said.

Spot gold was at $623,00/623,90 in early trade versus $623,90/4,90 in late New York trade.

The dollar steadied after a bout of weakness, which has helped lift gold from about $598 at the start of the week.

"We’re seeing some stability return to the dollar and that’s slowing down gold," a trader said.

Traders were looking to Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data for October for clues to the direction of the US economy and so the dollar and gold.

"Today we have non-farm payrolls data...The numbers will very much affect the market’s perceptions of where we are going with interest rates and therefore the dollar and gold," Heathcote said. "There is a good chance we will get a weaker figure. That means that gold may want to test the upside," he said.

Analysts predict a rise in non-farm payrolls in October of 125 000 when the data are release this afternoon.

A figure below 100 000 would depress the dollar and so support gold.

/...

[54anickel]

22. Gold still aiming at $1,000 an ounce - but when?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA7E65FC7-63EF-4984-A47B-916859E151D7%7D

big snip>

Breaking point in the Middle East?

There's another reason for gold's likely climb that the market has mostly ignored lately: fresh tension in the Middle East.
"The strongest reason to own gold right now is the fact that we have three U.S. aircraft carriers with task forces parked opposite Iranian shores," said Ralph Preston III, an account executive at San Diego-based Heritage West Financial Inc.

And Saudi Arabia has put its entire navy and special forces units in defensive position around the world's largest oil terminal, Ras Tanura, said Preston. News reports last week said there were threats of a possible al-Qaida attack on Persian Gulf oil terminals.

"This is an unusually high concentration of military build up on the part of the United States in the Persian Gulf," he said.

And "given Iran's defiance to the U.N. Security Council's demand to halt uranium enrichment -- and with China and Russia, both staunchly opposed to any type of punitive action to be taken against Iran -- it appears that the Bush Administration has more than diplomacy on its agenda," said Preston.

The U.S.'s role as the "guardian of the global economy, primarily the responsibility to make sure that we all have a steady, cheap, secure flow of oil out of the Middle East," appears set to be tested, he said.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Big spike up at 8:30

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 85.77 Change +0.42 (+0.49%)

Settle Time 15:04 Open 85.35

Previous Close 85.35 High 85.91

Low 85.27 2006-11-03 11:36:20, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

37. Funny how yesterday they were calling for a drop in the buck if payrolls

came in below 100K. Hmmmm, must be all them-thar previous revisions. :freak:

Revisions according to this article-http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2006-11-03T170646Z_01_N03313948_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-2.XML

snip>

It revised up September's job-creation total to 148,000, or nearly three times the 51,000 it reported a month ago, and said there were 230,000 new jobs in August instead of 188,000.




From yesterday (since updated) FOREX-Dollar steadies, vulnerable to jobs weakness
&cap=U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Engraving%20and%20Printing%20employee%20Hollis%20Ware%20looks%20over%20a%20sheet%20of%20partially%20printed%20bills%20at%20the%20Bureau%20of%20Engraving%20and%20Printing%20in%20Washington,%20Oct.%2023,%202006.%20The%20new%20US$20%20dollar%20bill%20is%20the%20first%20paper%20currency%20with%20U.S.%20Treasury%20Secretary%20Henry%20Paulson's%20signature.%20REUTERS/Jim%20Young%20(UNITED%20STATES)&from=business

(Reuters) - The dollar won a reprieve from recent weakness on Friday as a holiday in Japan drained liquidity and investors turned cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data.

The dollar has been losing ground for the past week or so as U.S. economic data took a decided turn for the worse. The one really resilient part of the economy has been the labour market so any weakness in payrolls could weigh hard on the currency.

"The run of soft data suggests the risks are to the downside for payrolls," said John Kyriakopoulos, a currency strategist at nabCapital. "Employment is the one shoe that hasn't dropped yet in the whole slowdown story, so a poor result could have a big impact."

Median forecasts are for a rise of 125,000 in payrolls but the latest derivatives auction on the data shows the market is betting on something nearer 102,000.

"A result under 100,000 would drag the dollar down," said Kyriakopoulos.

bit more...



That article has the strangest URL I've seen in a while - I just came across them on the google business news page. :shrug:

//today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nSYD25515&imageid=top-news-view-2006-11-02-165618-RTR1IMBU_Comp.jpg&cap=U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Engraving%20and%20Printing%20employee%20Hollis%20Ware%20looks%20over%20a%20sheet%20of%20partially%20printed%20bills%20at%20the%20Bureau%20of%20Engraving%20and%20Printing%20in%20Washington,%20Oct.%2023,%202006.%20The%20new%20US$20%20dollar%20bill%20is%20the%20first%20paper%20currency%20with%20U.S.%20Treasury%20Secretary%20Henry%20Paulson's%20signature.%20REUTERS/Jim%20Young%20(UNITED%20STATES)&from=business

[54anickel]

21. Syria switching to euros to combat U.S. sanctions

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=12154

The U.S.’s sanctions against Syria prompted Damascus to start switching its foreign currency surplus from U.S. dollars to euros, the United Press International reported.

A Syrian source told the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper that Syria has already started to take a series of steps to deal with the U.S. sanctions barring trade between the two countries.

Syria's Central Bank Governor Dr. Adib Mayala said on Tuesday that the country "would rid itself of the relationship between the Syrian lira (pound) and the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the upcoming year."

Specifically, Syria decided to exchange its foreign currency surplus - some USD 20 million - to Euros, and use the sum to pay off foreign debts, the Syrian source said, adding that the move is aimed at paying Damascus’ external debts and combating the U.S.’s economic sanctions.

Moreover, Syria used Euros with a number of countries in recent agreements related to its foreign debt of some USD 3 billion.

more....

[ozymandius]

34. Our government is our own worst enemy.

But then I have to admire Syria for its sagacity. Rather than being boxed in by the U.S. Syria has thwarted the U.S. hegemon with countermeasures that have long-term implications for America's waning global influence.

[54anickel]

58. ANALYSIS-As dollar falters, hedge funds ditch bullish bets (Wednesday)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN01241467&from=business

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers, for whom a week can be an eternity, have abruptly soured on prospects for the dollar after being avid greenback buyers barely a month ago.

As recently as mid-October, some U.S. economic data suggested sufficient inflationary pressures remained to persuade the Federal Reserve to ratchet up its benchmark lending rate, a prospect that favors the dollar over lower-yielding currencies.

That changed last week after the Fed held its federal funds rate steady at 5.25 percent for the third straight meeting. More importantly, however, the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on the decision was viewed by many investors as more balanced than its previous observations. As in the past, it warned about inflation -- but appeared to emphasize a view that the economy was softening.

Markets took the Fed statement as slightly soft on inflation, and traders have sold the dollar since. Since Wednesday, when the statement was released, the currency has dropped about 1.8 percent against a basket of currencies <.DXY> and around 2 percent against the euro <EUR=> and yen <JPY=>.

"I think there has been a shift in sentiment on the dollar," said Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer at the $165 billion money management firm Bridgewater Associates in Westport, Connecticut.

more...


Edit to add, check out the slideshow link on that page...some pretty good pics - 1st one is of Dimson being chased by a cicada
http://www.stateoftheworld.reuters.com/index.php?n=1&s=5

[HughBeaumont]

8. Bewshconomy once again lays an egg - 92k.

What I want to know is - how in THE hell is the UR at 4.4%? HOW?? We haven't gained a net new job this year. The economy has not created enough jobs to accommodate the birth/death rate this year. This number can't even be taken seriously. It has to be fudged.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

13. Wait For The Housing Crash....

When the housing FIASCO filters down to all the people who were hired because of it, that's when the SHIT will really Hit The Fan!

[ozymandius]

19. Herbert Hoover would shakes his head in disgust of these charlatans.

You're right. There is no way that the job growth rate is keeping pace with the number of people entering the work force. When one weighs the number of jobs being created with the number of weekly jobless claims, the propogandized numbers are just that: propoganda.

[texpatriot2004]

11. Good Cartoon nm

[Ghost Dog]

15. Economic numbers don't add up at home

Official good news is disconnected from true cost of living
http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061103/OPINION01/611030396/1007/OPINION

Politicians and economists may feel they have trouble getting through to the public about how well the economy is doing. But the real problem is the public has trouble getting through to politicians and economists. A huge disconnect exists between the number-crunchers and the real-life financial difficulties of American families.

Consumers often hear how the economy is improving. They see how the Dow Jones average is reaching new highs. They hear that inflation is down. They see statistics like the Consumer Price Index, which officials say is at 2.1 percent in the past 12 months, and they hear all this reported as good news. But what the number-crunchers may not fully understand is that reality isn't that simple.

A recent breakdown by USA Today shows what's really happening at the kitchen table when families deal with finances. In the past 20 years, the cost of college tuition has climbed by 289.5 percent. In the same period, expenses for medical care have soared 173.5 percent. The cost of hospital services alone has gone up 280.4 percent in that time, drug prices, 177.6 percent, and doctor services, 137.3 percent.

So don't tell families that the CPI is up only 2.1 percent in the past year and expect them to celebrate. They have real-world problems that don't match vague statistics. Another reason the public is struggling to make ends meet is that their wages have not kept pace with those cost explosions. And bear in mind that as employers reduce pension benefits, people have to save more of their own money for retirement — if they're able.

The fact is that, to make family income match the increases in expenses, many people are taking on more jobs. When a student seeks a college education, the expense often causes the student to take on substantial debt, and student loans can be difficult to pay off. It's no wonder that spurts in gas prices or higher property taxes put sudden stress on households.

In the current political climate, candidates should spend as much time listening to the concerns of voters about their personal financial challenges as in making speeches about political ambitions.

/...

[Hugin]

30. "they have trouble getting through to the public about how well the economy is doing"

If it were true it'd be an easy sell...

It'd almost sell itself.

[54anickel]

16. Fed is getting squeezed by slow growth and too-high inflation

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/productivity/2006-11-02-labor-costs-productivity_x.htm?csp=34

snip>

While accelerating wages are good for workers, whose compensation has lagged inflation in recent years, rising wages and benefit costs also have the potential to push inflation higher.

Other recent data show retail sales lagging and manufacturing being pulled down by the struggling U.S. auto industry. The housing market, after a record five-year run, is in a rout, with construction off nearly 20%. After growing at a 5.6% annual rate the first quarter this year, the economy expanded at a lackluster 1.6% pace in the third.

The Fed had predicted a slowdown, expecting more muted growth to gradually cut inflation. Core inflation, which doesn't include food and energy, is up 2.9% in the past year, above the Fed's informal 1% to 2% comfort range. After raising short-term interest rates 17 times from mid-2004 to mid-2006 to try to slow the economy and contain inflation, the Fed has held its target for the key federal funds rate steady at 5.25% since August.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher in a Thursday speech said inflation seemed to be peaking, according to a measure favored by his bank. But he said inflation remained too high, adding that the Fed had contributed to the current housing slump by keeping rates too low after the 2001 recession. That helped keep mortgage rates low, prolonging the housing boom. The Fed's decision to keep rates low was based on data that later turned out to understate inflation.

"Poor data led to a policy action that amplified speculative activity," Fisher said, adding that the slumping housing market is complicating Fed efforts to create "sustainable non-inflationary growth." :eyes:

more...

Poor data, yeah that's the ticket!






Greenspan's Fraud: How Two Decades of His Policies Have Undermined the Global Economy

http://www.buzzflash.com/hartmann/05/07/har05007.html

snip>

But Reagan still had a problem. His tax cuts for the wealthy - even when moderated by subsequent tax increases - weren't generating enough money to invest properly in America's infrastructure, schools, police and fire departments, and military. The country was facing bankruptcy.

No problem, suggested Greenspan. Just borrow the Boomer's savings account - the money in the Social Security Trust Fund - and, because you're borrowing "government money" to fund "government expenditures," you don't have to list it as part of the deficit. Much of the deficit will magically seem to disappear, and nobody will know what you did for another 50 years when the Boomers begin to retire 2015.

Reagan jumped at the opportunity. As did George H. W. Bush. As did Bill Clinton (although Al Gore argued strongly that Social Security funds should not be raided, but, instead, put in a "lock box"). And so did George W. Bush.

The result is that all that money - trillions of dollars - that has been taxed out of working Boomers (the ceiling has risen from the tax being on your first $30,000 of income to the first $90,000 today) has been borrowed and spent. What are left behind are a special form of IOUs - an unique form of Treasury debt instruments similar (but not identical) to those the government issues to borrow money from China today to fund George W. Bush's most recent tax cuts for billionaires (George Junior is still also "borrowing" from the Social Security Trust Fund).

snip>

And the Social Security fraud just outlined is only the beginning. Batra shows - in extraordinary (and easily understood) detail - how Greenspan has steadily worked for over two decades to sell out America's sovereignty and economic interests to those of the multinational corporations he so loves, and to sell out the working people of America (and their Social Security Trust Fund) to the super-rich who Greenspan has always represented.

Greenspan manipulated the stock market so his buddies could get rich, then warned them just in time to get out before it blew up. He's kept together tax cuts and pay increases for the CEO class by pumping cheap money into the economy so the Middle Class will go ever deeper into debt, setting up a housing bubble that could crash in a way that would make 1929 look like a mild bump in the economic road. And he's helped engineer and support international "free" trade policies that have disemboweled America's manufacturing and information technology sectors, with the happy result for Republicans that the once-politically-active and heavily unionized middle class is being replaced by a politically impotent mass of the working poor, too busy to worry about politics or challenge corporate news.

more...

[donsu]

18. over at Asia Times online, jeff Crooks says to watch the market today

dollar valuation going down

don't ask me about it as what I know about the stock market would fit on the head of a pin, just reporting what I saw on ATO

[54anickel]

50. Hi Donsu, You wouldn't happen to have a link would you? You've

peaked my interest, but I can't seem to locate it on ATO. I'm probably looking in the wrong area.

:hi: Welcome to the SMW thread.

[Ghost Dog]

53. That would refer to one Jack Crooks

- the Asia Times "Daily Forex Commentary" (Link on front page)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HK04Dj01.html

<snipping out the analysis, to his conclusion:>

Evidence seems to be lining up solidly behind the US slowdown story. The dollar is starting to fade on the growing negative sentiment … but, and this is the BIG BUT - US non-farm payrolls for October looms large over the market. If jobs come in below expectations, confirming the story we told above, we could see some major capitulation on the part of dollar bulls … it could be a very, very interesting Friday morning.

/...

[54anickel]

56. Thanks GD! Thank Bob for those revisions! (See post 37) We might

have been in big doo-doo without them. Revisions....right, try market manipulation. They are hanging on by a thread these days and becoming more and more desperate to prop up the buck.

[donsu]

66. thank you Ghost for providing the link

nt

[ozymandius]

23. Bad news for Food Holes fans.

Whole Foods shares dive as rivals pressure sales

Market Inc. plunged more than 20 percent on Friday, a day after the No. 1 natural and organic grocer said it is feeling the heat as traditional grocers entice customers with the fresh produce and prepared meals that have been a cornerstone of its strategy.

On Thursday, Whole Foods said it expects sales at stores open at least a year to rise 6 percent to 8 percent in 2007, far below the double-digit same-store sales increases the retailer has posted for the last three years.

-cut-

PRESSURE FROM NICHE RETAILERS

Whole Foods said it is feeling pressure from niche retailers, such as privately-held Trader Joe's and Wegmans, which are known for good customer service and prepared foods.

At the same time, retail leader Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and traditional grocers such as Safeway Inc. have added more organic fare to their stores to reach shoppers who want to try organic foods but balk at Whole Foods' prices.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20061103&ID=6165480

[ozymandius]

24. 12:36 update

Maybe nobody wants to hold stocks over the weekend again.

Dow 11,980.60 Down 37.94 (0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,320.31 Down 13.71 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,363.35 Down 3.99 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.719% Up 0.123
NYSE Volume 1,214,068,000
Nasdaq Volume 990,081,000

12:00 pm : Sellers are now in complete control of the action midday as a sell-off in Treasuries discounting hopes of a possible Fed easing and surging oil prices push the major averages to the worst levels of the session.

Albeit initially struggling to make sense of this morning's October employment report, equity investors eventually embraced the lack of evidence to support the argument for a significant economic slowdown. Before the bell, the Labor Dept. showed that October nonfarm payrolls rose just 92,000 (consensus 125,000) but upwardly revised figures for September and August to show an additional 139,000 jobs. The adjustment left the average monthly payrolls gain in line with the six-month trend that, along with unemployment unexpectedly dipping to a five-year low and hourly earnings inching higher, provided plenty of fuel to keep consumer spending rising at about a 3% real rate.

Be that as it may, the subsequent sell-off in Treasuries lifting yields sharply higher across the curve has finally taken a toll on the rate-sensitive stocks and raised valuation concerns about growth companies dependent on borrowing. Thus, the absence of leadership from the likes of Financials and Technology -- the two most influential S&P 500 sectors -- is weighing on sentiment. The 10-year note is down 28 ticks to yield 4.70%.

In fact, Energy is the only sector trading higher. While it's 1.9% gain bodes well for investors from an earnings standpoint, the fact that energy stocks are surging in sympathy with a nearly 2% rise in oil prices provides an added sense of uneasiness. Crude oil futures are climbing for the first time in three sessions and near $59/bbl following reports that Nigerian militants may stage a large-scale attack on oil facilities in the region. BTK -0.9% DJ30 -38.38 DJTA -0.7% DJUA -0.9% DOT -0.7% NASDAQ -14.93 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -0.2% SOX -0.4% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -4.45 XOI +1.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1517/1305/864 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1847/1275/602 mln

[ozymandius]

25. Energy prices: Promises, promises

Politicians talked a lot about getting a handle on costs. Here's what they've actually done.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- When gasoline prices raced toward $3 a gallon back in May, the fiery rhetoric from Washington was non-stop.

There were press conferences at gas stations, podium pounding in Congress and near lovefests in ethanol-producing corn fields. Sue OPEC. Abolish the gas tax. Break up the oil companies. Or least take more of their money.

-cut-

Boost domestic production: Of all the bills introduced on energy, this one has come the furthest, although its prospects remain dim.

-cut-

Prohibit price gouging: At least one bill passed the House making it a federal crime to charge "unconsciously excessive" prices, but it's thought to be little more than symbolism.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/03/news/economy/energy_law/index.htm?postversion=2006110312

[54anickel]

40. Iraq: Bush has a plan, and it's working

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HK03Ak01.html

"If you listen carefully for a Democrat plan for success, they don't have one. Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, yet they don't have a plan ..."
- US President George W Bush, campaigning for Republicans in next week's congressional elections.

So, does the Bush administration have a plan for Iraq, and if so, is it working? The answer to both questions could well be "yes". But it's not a plan that Bush could publicly boast about, despite the fact that it's working like a charm.

This is how things are shaping up in Iraq (see image below), according to US Central Command itself, which keeps a "chaos gauge" to measure Iraq's progress from chaos to peace.

According to the New York Times, the "gauge" was shown as a slide at a classified briefing on October 18. (Click here to see the full slide, titled "Iraq: Indications and Warnings of Civil Conflict".)

Unfortunately for the benighted Iraqis, the gauge is moving steadily in the "wrong" direction: away from peace and into the "red zone" of chaos. So how is it that the Bush plan can be said to be working? Easy, if the plan is ... chaos.

more....

And people call ME cynical!!

[ozymandius]

41. "yet they don't have a plan ... (that I agree with)"

President Stupid has a hard time completing his thoughts.

[Hugin]

43. From what I understand the Titanic had a plan, too.

The plan was a success, but, the patient died.

[54anickel]

64. Hmmm, this sort of supports the author's cynical view of the war. Maybe

total chaos and pillaging was the plan from the beginning, at at least a Plan B when they failed to great our troops with flowers and candy as called for in Plan A.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2593924#2593945

[ozymandius]

33. blood in the water

1:01
Dow 11,966.59 Down 51.95 (0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,316.96 Down 17.06 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,360.98 Down 6.36 (0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.717% Up 0.121
NYSE Volume 1,321,287,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,065,226,000

12:30 pm : The indices continue to languish near session lows as oil prices continue to climb. Crude oil futures now up 2.5% at $59.30/bbl have helped Energy extends it reach as this year's second best performing sector (16.7%). To wit, the sector now accounts for six of today's top ten performing S&P industry groups. However, oil's advance is taking a huge toll on the likes of retail stocks (RLX -1.4%) still reeling from yesterday's discouraging October same-store sales results. Computer & Electronics (-2.3%), though, is under additional pressure amid worries that Best Buy (BBY 51.78 -1.20) and Circuit City (CC 25.54 -0.57) will lose sales to Wal-Mart (WMT 47.27 -1.02), which within the last 15 minutes said it lowered prices on nearly 100 key electronics for the holiday season. DJ30 -37.30 NASDAQ -13.10 SP500 -3.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1585/1273/976 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1927/1221/698 mln

[ozymandius]

39. I am looking at the ad on the bottom of my screen.

If the Hoodia Diet Patch decreases hunger, does it increase malnutrition?

Mysterious hair loss?
Teeth falling out?
Distended belly?

You might be trying Hoodia!

[54anickel]

45. Chain-gang economics

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HK02Dj01.html

"The world is investing too little," according to one prominent economist. "The current situation has its roots in a series of crises over the last decade that were caused by excessive investment, such as the Japanese asset bubble, the crises in emerging Asia and Latin America, and most recently, the IT bubble. Investment has fallen off sharply since, with only very cautious recovery."

These are not the words of a Marxist economist describing the crisis of overproduction but those of Raghuram Rajan, the new

chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). His analysis, now more than a year old, continues to be accurate.

Global overcapacity has made further investment simply unprofitable, which significantly dampens global economic growth. In Europe, for instance, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged only 1.45% in the past few years. Global demand has not kept up with global productive capacity. And if countries are not investing in their economic futures, then growth will continue to stagnate and possibly lead to a global recession.

China and the United States, however, appear to be bucking the trend. But rather than signs of health, growth in these two economies - and their ever more symbiotic relationship with each other - may actually be indicators of crisis. The centrality of the US to both global growth and global crisis is well known. What is new is China's critical role. Once regarded as the greatest achievement of this era of globalization, China's integration into the global economy is, according to an excellent analysis by political economist Ho-Fung Hung, emerging as a central cause of global capitalism's crisis of overproduction. <1>

more...

[ozymandius]

46. heavy trading and de-spirited leadership

2:05
Dow 11,969.63 Down 48.91 (0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,323.08 Down 10.94 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,362.57 Down 4.77 (0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.715% Up 0.119
NYSE Volume 1,579,975,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,258,107,000

1:30 pm : The major averages are bouncing off their worst levels but continue to chalk up losses in the absence of spirited leadership from a number of blue chips. On the Dow, 24 of its 30 components are trading lower. Wal-Mart (WMT 47.23 -1.06) is pacing the way (-2.2%) amid concerns aggressive price cuts on electronics will cut into its bottom line. AT&T (T 33.59 -0.43) is also under pressure after the FCC delayed its vote on the pending merger with BellSouth (BLS) for a third time.DJ30 -28.82 NASDAQ -8.60 SP500 -2.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1562/1347/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1982/1204/850 mln

[54anickel]

47. Housing Vampires Walk Streets After Halloween

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=59915

Bela Lugosi created the vision of vampirish evil in the 1931 classic movie, Dracula, and, as a Halloween costume, the vampire look has never gone out of style. But what if Dracula were more than just a scary character? If he were real, he'd be the perfect explanation for the goings-on in many boardrooms of public companies and on the streets of our neighborhoods (and I don't mean little kids wearing black capes and shouting gleefully, 'Moowah-ah-ahh').

After all, doesn't the back of your neck stand up when you hear the stories about blood-sucking CEOs who backdated their stock option grant dates to take home millions more with no extra effort? There they were in their offices late at night. The clock struck midnight, and out came their fangs. In the dead of night, these CEO vampires roamed their headquarters, searching for the document that listed their stock options. Once they found it, they sucked the blood from shareholders by changing the grant dates to more favorable ones when the company stock was at a low point for the year. Now some daylight is being shed on their nocturnal habits, thanks to a Wall Street Journal report that led to SEC inquiries and internal investigations. These investigations are driving stakes through their hearts. So far, more than 20 have resigned or been fired from their companies – all because they had to have more than their fair share of the lifeblood of their companies.

The more serious threats to the economy and life as we know it, though, will come from the undead who will still roam the streets well after this year's Halloween candy has been eaten. They will be those folks who overextended themselves to buy a handsome Gothic mansion in a friendly subdivision. And they will have one thing on their minds – needing more cash to make their monthly mortgage payments, particularly after their adjustable-rate mortgages are re-set. One estimate suggests that 2007 will be the Year of the Vampire, as $1 trillion-worth of ARMs (or 12% of all U.S. mortgage debt) will be readjusted upward, increasing monthly payments and adding to homeowners' burdens. The mortgage companies will want more blood from their mortgagees, yet these homeowners have already been bled white: where will they find the cash to make the payments?

As prices of both new and existing homes fall in many parts of the nation, more ordinary people will become unwilling footsoldiers in the vampire empire, because they won't be able to refinance their homes. Or, to use the vampire vernacular: They won't be able to get any more blood from their houses, which will be cold relics of themselves. Homes that once pulsed with life will now be peopled with deathly white homeowners trying to find more cash-blood.

Those who own their own homes or who can handle the mortgage or the rent payment may need to start carrying garlic and wearing crosses. Suppose your favorite sister calls to say that she and her husband need some help making ends meet with the mortgage. How will you respond – send the money each month or offer room in your own home? Suppose your friends receive an unwelcome letter coldly stating that their new monthly payment has just increased 50%. Will they lose all color from their faces? Will they suddenly feel a strong need for cash – or what Lugosi used to call 'blahd' in his thick accent? And -- again -- where can they find the cash?

more...

[ozymandius]

48. Google’s YouTube Hangover?

The giddiness surrounding Google’s deal to buy YouTube has begun to die down, and some harsh realities seem to be setting in. One of the thorniest aspects of the acquisition — copyright issues related to the millions of clips on YouTube’s popular video-sharing service — seems to be causing some angst at YouTube’s soon-to-be-owner. The Financial Times on Friday reported that Google is in a “frantic round of negotiations” with the major media companies over potential copyright issues.

Shortly before the Google deal, YouTube announced agreements with three major music labels. It later emerged that those deals included giving small stakes in YouTube to the music groups. Now, according to the FT, Google is dangling cash in front of companies such as CBS, Viacom, Time Warner, NBC Universal and News Corporation in hopes of striking similar agreements. Citing an unnamed source, the article said that Google has offered $100 million to one media company to license its content over a two-year period.

Since the YouTube deal was announced, many have questioned whether Google’s deep pockets would draw an avalanche of lawsuits from content owners whose material appears on YouTube’s site. A few days ago, Mark Cuban’s BlogMaverick published an unconfirmed, unsourced post suggesting that $500 million of the deal’s $1.65 billion price tag was being kept in escrow to fund potential legal action or settlements.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/11/03/googles-youtube-hangover/?8dpc

[54anickel]

51. Former World Bank Chief Economist Predicts Global Crash

http://propagandamatrix.com/articles/october2006/301006globalcrash.htm

Former World Bank Vice President, Chief Economist and Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz has predicted a global economic crash within 24 months - unless the current downturn is successfully managed. Asked if the situation was being properly handled Stiglitz emphatically responded "no," and also drew ominous parallels to the development of the NAFTA Superhighway and the North American Union.

Stiglitz caused controversy in October 2001 when he exposed rampant corruption within the IMF and blew the whistle on their nefarious methods of inducing countries to fall under their debt before stripping them of sovereignty and hollowing out their economies.

snip>

Speaking about the agenda of the World Bank since the installation of Paul Wolfowitz, Stiglitz highlighted the shift which began back in August 2001 whereby the Bush administration moved to block transparency of secret bank accounts, which in part facilitated the 9/11 terror attacks.

"Unfortunately in this current administration, the defense industries and the energy industries have really been running the show and it has been disastrous," said Stiglitz.

Discussing the warning signs of plummeting real estate prices in the U.S., Stiglitz stated that a global economic depression could only be avoided if a correction was made but at the moment all the indicators are that the situation is not being well managed.

"If it's well managed it will only be a slow-down, if it's not well-managed it could be a recession," said Stiglitz.

Asked if the debt bubble was being well-managed Stiglitz plainly responded in the negative.

"It's gonna be difficult....this has been perhaps the worst six years of mismanagement of the macro economy....I think we can avoid an implosion if we manage this carefully but it's going to be very risky," said Stiglitz, agreeing that if the same course continued to be followed a global depression would occur within 12-24 months.

[ozymandius]

52. Isn't this thread just a ray of sunshine on this fine day?

Does he suggest the brain trusts at the Fed and the Treasury Department manage affairs on our end?

[54anickel]

55. "...if the same course continued to be followed...."

Wouldn't that be insanity?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=385&topic_id=1353


Oh Ozy, check this one out....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x2427

Oh yeah, I'm ray of sunshine today!!! :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

57. :shakeshead:

On a sliding scale - we've sunk pretty low.

[AnneD]

59. Ozy....

I'm praying Stigilitz is right and we have 2 years. I can pay down a lot of debt in 2 years and be in good to even better shape than I am now.

[Hugin]

60. Here's hoping AnneD!

:thumbsup:

[AnneD]

62. That is why I love this thread so much....

as depressing as the news seems some days-I'm a big girl. Give me honest info and I can make decent choices or hedge my bets. Don't blow sunshine up my skirt. I feel things are grim for the economy but by getting good info here, we are miles ahead of many.

When I do lay my head on the pillow at night, I know I did everything I could to promote democracy in this country, protect and provide for my loved ones, and plan for my future.

I have had to rebuild my retirement account many times, but I continue. Along the way, I have experienced the highs an lows and have learned to survive. I may or may not end with as much as I would like, or in a comfortable setting as I would wish, but as long as I can, I will be able to fend for myself and help others.

[ozymandius]

54. Witching Hour update

3:13
Dow 11,978.28 Down 40.26 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,326.92 Down 7.10 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,364.07 Down 3.27 (0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.717% Up 0.121
NYSE Volume 1,916,161,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,495,151,000

3:00 pm : The major averages continue to pare their losses but have yet to find a more convincing catalyst to give them the boost they need to turn positive. The Dow is back over the 12,000 level but still runs the risk of closing lower for a sixth straight day. That would be mark its longest losing streak since June 2005. In fact, the only sector close to joining Energy to the upside is Materials; but as the least weighted S&P 500 sector, any such turnaround will still have little impact on overall trading. DJ30 -15.13 NASDAQ -2.63 SP500 -0.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1342/1628/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1712/1506/1.07 bln

[54anickel]

61. The hedge hogs from another planet

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1937041,00.html

Successful hedge fund managers hate to reveal their fantastic riches but sometimes the veil is lifted a few inches. Yesterday was one of those days as Lansdowne Partners, one of London's biggest and most highly regarded hedge fund houses, sold 19% of itself to Morgan Stanley. The price for that sliver, according to those close to the deal, was $300m, implying a value of $1.5bn, or £790m, for a partnership founded only eight years ago.

snip>

But that is not the most extraordinary part of this transaction. The intriguing detail is that Lansdowne runs five hedge funds and two are managed by people who were, until recently, employees of Morgan Stanley itself. The investment bank is now paying an enormous sum to get back a small exposure to their money-management skills.

William de Winton for many years was rated as London's hottest analyst of the banking sector. In April 2004, he joined Lansdowne to manage a fund investing in the financial services industry. Last year Lansdowne hired Richard Davidson, Morgan Stanley's equally highly rated European strategist, to run a "macro" fund - one that concentrates on the shifts between classes of assets.

There was much muttering yesterday about the "cultural fit" between the two parties but Morgan Stanley is clearly deeply embarrassed that it allowed De Winton and Davidson to leave in the first place. It would have been far, far cheaper to set them up as in-house hedge fund managers. That's what other investment banks do.

The decision to pay up for past mistakes can be attributed to the return of John Mack as chief executive. He has ordered the bank to get big in hedge funds, and damn the embarrassment. This week Morgan Stanley paid $400m for FrontPoint, an American hedge fund, and immediately appointed many of its executives to top posts within the bank's asset-management division. As with Lansdowne, FrontPoint's senior partners include several ex-Morgan Stanley staff.

snip>

Bernanke's Fed ache

It's too soon to talk about a dollar crisis, but something is stirring. It's almost $1.91 to the pound, the lowest level for the dollar this year. Even the bombed-out yen has had a modest bounce-back in the past few days.

[54anickel]

63. Bush Buoyed by Good Employment News, Fires Away at Dems, Pelosi

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,227390,00.html?sPage=fnc.politics/youdecide2006

President Bush, buoyed by news that U.S. unemployment was at a five-year low, put the focus in the Battle for Congress squarely on the economy Friday, hammering away at Democrats — in particular, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi — who he warned can't wait to do away with tax cuts.

"People are working in the United States, the tax cuts have worked," Bush told a Republican rally in Springfield, Mo., where the president was stumping for incumbent Sen. Jim Talent.

If these tax cuts are not extended or made permanent, your taxes are going up," Bush warned, charging that Pelosi already had asked "the man who would be chairman of Ways and Means " whether he would preserve the cuts.

"Not a one, not a tax cut," Bush said Pelosi was told.

The fiery rhetoric came as Republican and Democratic candidates across the country scrambled to swing undecided voters into their camp before Tuesday's vote to decide which party will control Congress — and, an array of issues from the economy to Iraq and the War on Terror.

Pelosi was not to be outdone, however, firing back at the president who she claimed had "the worst jobs record since the Great Depression," in spite of Friday's news that the October jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent, the lowest it has been in more than five years.

more Faux spin....:argh:

[UpInArms]

65. closing up the shop

Dow 11,986.04 32.50 (0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,330.79 3.23 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,364.30 3.04 (0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.715% 0.119

NYSE Volume 2,450,645,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,906,970,000

Stocks closed modestly lower Friday amid a lack of conviction that today's strong jobs report positions the economy for a much-desired soft landing.

With investors leaving no rock unturned to gauge the severity of the economic slowdown, the stock market finally wrapped its arms around a report that broke a string of weaker than expected economic data and laid to rest concerns of an impending severe economic slowdown.

Before the bell, the Labor Dept. showed that October non-farm payrolls rose 92,000. While that was below an expected rise of 125,000, initially reminiscent of the shortfall a month earlier, it was also noted that September's small increase of 51,000 was revised to a much higher 148,000. Also assuring there is no shortage of jobs was an upward revision to the August figure as well, from 188,000 to 230,000. The adjustments left the average monthly payrolls gain in line with a six-month trend. Along with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to a five-year low of 4.4% and hourly earnings inching higher, that gain provides plenty of fuel to keep consumer spending rising at about a 3% real rate.

The Treasury market perhaps served as the best reminder today that, while the jobs report was bullish overall, the big payroll revisions, lower unemployment and rising wages diminish the possibility of the Fed easing anytime soon. As a result, Treasuries sold off across the yield curve. To wit, the 10-year note plunged 30 ticks, the biggest decline since July 21, 2005, lifting its yield to 4.71%. That eventually weighed on rate-sensitive stocks and raised valuation concerns about growth companies dependent on borrowing, which resulted in the lack of leadership from influential sectors like Financials and Technology.

Throw in a 2.2% surge in oil prices to $59.13/bbl and subsequent weakness from the likes of retailers and transports, and the market struggled to keep early buying efforts intact. Crude oil futures climbed for the first time in three sessions following reports that Nigerian militants may stage a large-scale attack on oil facilities in the region. Energy was the only sector to close higher. BTK +0.1% DJ30 -32.50 DJTA -0.7% DJUA -0.8% DOT -0.3% NASDAQ -3.23 NQ100 -0.4% R2K +0.3% SOX +0.5% SP400 +0.2% SP500 -3.04 XOI +1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1283/1740/1.86 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1760/1502/1.43 bln

3:30 pm : Recent recovery efforts have stalled heading into the final stretch as it appears likely stocks will ride the Treasuries' coattails to a lower close. The 10-year note recently closed down a whopping 30 ticks, marking the biggest sell-off since July 21, 2005, lifting the yield nearly 12 basis points to 4.71%. All things considered, the rate-sensitive Financials sector has actually held up surprisingly well; but the spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr notes slipping deeper into inversion amid diminishing expectations of the Fed easing any time soon has curbed the enthusiasm of owning banks and brokers.DJ30 -35.78 NASDAQ -5.99 SP500 -2.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1412/1596/1.56 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1831/1428/1.20 bln

3:00 pm : The major averages continue to pare their losses but have yet to find a more convincing catalyst to give them the boost they need to turn positive. The Dow is back over the 12,000 level but still runs the risk of closing lower for a sixth straight day. That would be mark its longest losing streak since June 2005. In fact, the only sector close to joining Energy to the upside is Materials; but as the least weighted S&P 500 sector, any such turnaround will still have little impact on overall trading. DJ30 -15.13 NASDAQ -2.63 SP500 -0.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1342/1628/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1712/1506/1.07 bln

Have a great weekend :hi: