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Sekula-Gibbs (R) running close to Lampson (D) for the seat DeLay held

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TexasLawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:19 PM
Original message
Sekula-Gibbs (R) running close to Lampson (D) for the seat DeLay held
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 01:21 PM by TexasLawyer
I posted this in the Texas Forum, but since this is a contest for Tom DeLay's seat in Congress, I thought the race was of much broader interest.

Many down here thought Lampson's victory was a done deal. Anyone who can help the Lampson campaign should step in and do so STAT. This is a very high profile national race, needless to say.


Oct. 30, 2006, 12:18AM
CHRONICLE-11 NEWS POLL

Sekula-Gibbs running close to Lampson for the seat DeLay held
Write-in tightens race in District 22

By KRISTEN MACK
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle


The Republican write-in effort to hold former Rep. Tom DeLay's congressional seat, once viewed as a long shot, has created a tight race, according to a Houston Chronicle-11 News poll.

Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.

Most who say they will write in a candidate plan on naming Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, the Houston city councilwoman backed by the Republican Party. Two lesser-known candidates also are running as write-ins.

One voter in four is still undecided.

<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4296181.html

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Weembo Donating Member (324 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. The Chronicle's polls are weak
Historically.
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villager Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
2. sounds like another 30% are "undecided" then?
n/t
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RobertSeattle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. What's the rule on spelling for Write-ins?
Does it have to be 100% correct?
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Richardo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I wish I knew.
They have to spell out the name 1 letter at a time using the dial-thingy. Cumbersome to say the least ESPECIALLY with a name like Sekula-Gibbs.

I wonder if her name will be posted in the booth. Better not.
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Weembo Donating Member (324 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. No. Close enough to understand the intent only.
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. No. Intent has to be "evident"
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Tempest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. This is bad news for Sekula-Gibbs
DeLay's gerrymandering made this district overwhelmingly Repug.

The fact that Gibbs is in a statistical tie means she has a poor chance of winning.

Especially considering how 25% of likely voters are undecided. Undecided voters this close to an election usually vote for the party out of power if my understanding is correct.
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lebkuchen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
7. I know there are a lot of coon-eating ass-backward folks in that district
but if my former congressperson were under investigation by the state and the feds, I think I'd have a look at what the other party had to offer.
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Kagemusha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
8. In a poll, you don't have to go through monumental effort.
To write-in S-e-k-u-l-a---G-i-b-b-s, correctly, when the name isn't on the ballot to begin with, in numbers that would win an election, well... a poll just doesn't reflect that.

Given that there's the Mark Foley case here, this election should provide the definitive statistical data on the subject for the next few decades. We'll see how much it matters.
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
9. do you understand on these machines how hard it is to write in a candidate
and how much time it will take voters?? especially her long name!!...

Yes we need to stay vigilant....but do not believe the rethuglican polls!


just my 2 cents..fly
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Bridget Burke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Yes. And those voting for a Straight Republican Ticket....
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 01:42 PM by Bridget Burke
Still need to manipulate the thingy to write in Dr Sekula-Rodriguez-Gibbs.

(I'm not serious about "Rodriguez." Dr Sekula is a dermatologist & did not take Husband #1's name. She married respected Houston newsman Sylvan Rodriguez; after he died of pancreatic cancer, she ran for city council as Shelley Sekula Rodriguez. Then married Mr Gibbs just after she was elected.)

Because of term limits, she cannot run for Council again. So she's reinvented herself as hard-ass anti-immigration, "pro-life," etc. She's also extremely worried about the 2nd Amendment. However, the NRA & VFW in her area came out for Lampson.

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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. I live here and didn't realize she is the widow of
Mr. Rodriguez, who I remember well. Thanks for the info.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. That is
news to me too. I like that HISD named a school after him. He was a good guy.
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. I didn't realize that she was married to Sylvan Rodriguez.
I hope she loses.
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kskiska Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #9
22. It won't be easy and older folks could abandon the effort
(snip)

Most voters won't really need a pencil to cast write-in votes because they'll use electronic voting machines. If they write in the councilwoman's name, they'll turn a dial selecting the 18-letter name a character at a time.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4298055.html
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gratuitous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:34 PM
Response to Original message
10. Curious omission in the story
No margin of error listed for the poll of 500 "likely voters" or how the Chron chose their likely voters. That makes it very difficult to evaluate the legitimacy of this poll. Not to mention that Ms. Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate, and any votes cast for DeLay do not (at least in my understanding) automatically inure to her benefit.
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Ignacio Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
11. This poll was done by Zogby
I wouldn't be surprised if the race is close, but I doubt she will win. Zogby polls suck ass.
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TexasLawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
14. Bush himself is coming down
to Sugarland today or tomorrow to do a major GOTV for Sekula-Gibbs. I'll continue to bite my nails on this one.
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Bridget Burke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Here's word on Bush's appearance--today!
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 01:53 PM by Bridget Burke
....Bush will be appearing at Sugar Land Regional Airport... It is at the busiest intersection of two major roadways, Highways 6 and 90A, with a major freeway right beside it.

Men far wise than I am have decided that 5:00 p.m. is the best time to do this. On a normal day, at 5:00 p.m. the entire area is a parking lot. Trying to get home from work, you will sit in traffic for 45 minutes in this exact area during rush hour.

Men far wiser than I am have decided that pouring concrete is a magnificent thing, so the entire area is currently under construction with lots of heavy equipment and torn-up roadways. Under construction is a nice word for Hell Hole.

Men far wiser than I am have decided that bringing a President whose approval ratings are generally the same numbers as my freezer temperature is a dandy idea, and doing it at a time that guarantees to hack-off people trying to get home from work with the sun in their eyes is charming.


www.brazosriver.com /

"Juanita" also has a few choice words on the Zogby Poll.


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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 02:51 PM
Response to Original message
17. I just voted early this morning in the 22nd and I'm worried.
The line was extremely long and individuals were going into the booths and taking forever (read spelling out the name with the little "thingy."

You see so many more Sekula Gibbs signs here than Lampson signs and in the parking lot of the early voting place there were "W" bumperstickers on a lot of cars. I swear there are so many knee-jerk Rethuglicans in this district it isn't even funny.

Well I'll keep my fingers crossed. Oh how sweet a Dem in the 22nd would be!
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TexasLawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Thanks for the "on-the-ground" report
22nd-ites-- get out there and VOTE!
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wholetruth00 Donating Member (576 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:09 PM
Response to Original message
20. This is close enough for them to steal it. Need oversight at these polls.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
23. Read the poll...misleading
79% plan on voting for Sekula-Gibbs...which still puts Lampson in the lead by about 10 points...


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Charlie Brown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
24. write-ins are generally too much work for voters (especially conservatives)
I'll be surprised if this candidate gets 35%.
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