New Jersey Senate Race in Dead Heat, Poll Shows

[flowomo]

Thomas H. Kean Jr., the Republican challenger, is holding his own in his bid to unseat Senator Robert Menendez, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

http://nytimes.com/

6. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Robert Menendez, the Democratic candidate or would you vote for Thomas Kean Jr., the Republican candidate? CANDIDATES’ NAMES WERE ROTATED
Menendez Kean Someone else/Neither/Other Won't Vote Depends DK/NA
10/20-25/06* 38 36 3 3 6 13
10/20-25/06*L 40 39 3 2 6 11


from the .pdf linked in article; "L" means weighted for likely voters

[Beetwasher]

1. Yeah, Been That Way For A While

NJ will pull out for the Dem in the end, they almost always do.

[GOPBasher]

2. Hope so. We need that seat. n/t

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[Beetwasher]

7. Great Analysis!

And welcome to DU!

I agree w/ pretty much everything you said. People seem to forget how progressive NJ really is. In the sort of political atmosphere that exists in the country these days there's no way in hell NJ is going to elect a Republican. Just ain't gonna happen.

[GOPBasher]

16. All very good points. That reassures me. :-) n/t

[karynnj]

17. I'm also suspicious of the NJ Bush approval rate

in that sample - it is NOT lower than the national estimate - which I would expect it to be.

[WI_DEM]

3. This is the race that has me very worried

In a Dem year in a blue state you wouldn't think it would be this close, but many voters appear to have doubts about Menendez' honesty. Frankly, Corzine probably should have thought it out more before appointing him. But lets hope he pulls through. If he loses we don't win the Senate.

[flowomo]

4. Menendez' negatives are higher, not good:

this is hard to read, from the pdf, but it's the third # from the left

9. ASKED OF THOSE WHO NAMED MENENDEZ OR KEAN IN Q.6 OR Q.7: Would you describe your support for (Robert Menendez/Thomas Kean Jr.) as strongly favoring him, or do you like (Robert Menendez/Thomas Kean Jr.) but with reservations, or do you support (Robert Menendez/Thomas Kean Jr.) because you dislike (Thomas Kean Jr./Robert Menendez)?
Strongly favor Reservations Dislike others DK/NA
10/20-25/06* 24 46 20 10
Menendez voters 25 46 18 11
Kean voters 26 43 24 7
10/20-25/06* L1 26 45 20 9
Menendez voters 27 45 17 11
Kean voters 29 42 23 6

[cali]

9. Exactly.

Menendez has an astonishingly high unfavorable rating. This bodes ill for the election. I thought Corzine was a fool to appoint him. I still think that.

[BootinUp]

5. Very high undecided numbers

I believe it will break for the Dems.

The RNC dumped 3.5 million more into NJ yesterday, the DSCC responded with 4 million.

[Ignacio Upton]

8. Menendez has been in the high single digits recently

While this poll isn't entirely off statistically, I would say it trends in outlier territory.

[Teaser]

10. not worried

as has been noted above, we always get worked up about how bad dems poll in Jersey. And the polls are always way off.

[Lexingtonian]

11. so it's roughly 40/40

and Bush support is 33/65....ergo, most or all Undecideds lean Democratic.

Kean has never polled over iirc 43%, and NJ splits 55 D/45 R plus or minus 1% this year.

It's still a Democratic hold.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. Why did Corzine leave the Senate in the first place???

GOPers are carried out feet first.

[greeneyedboy]

14. he got "promoted" after the Gov. resigned in 2005

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Corzine

[greeneyedboy]

13. NJ always ends up bluer than the polls.

no doubt the GOP (& corporate media) will try to sell a concern troll story about how the bland equivocating pro-civil union decision in NJ has turned the state toward Ken, but that is utter BS. we have excellent ground teams in NJ, and Menendez will pull through.

[bigwillq]

15. Menendez will pull it out.

NJ DEMS seen to vote late, meaning they come out when it counts.

I am not worried.