USA Today/Gallup Poll: GOP could lose control of Congress (GOP gains 10pts)

[truthpusher]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-10-23-poll-election_x.htm?csp=34

Poll: GOP could lose control of Congress
Updated 10/23/2006 1:38 PM ET
By Mark Memmott, Jill Lawrence and Susan Page, USA TODAY
Just two weeks before Election Day, poll results continue to signal that Republicans could lose control of one or both chambers of Congress.

The latest USA TODAY/Gallup national poll, taken over the weekend, shows that:

•Thirty-eight percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S. House of Representatives member from their district does not deserve re-election. That number has never been higher. Two weeks ago it stood at 33%.

•Asked what will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, 43% of likely voters said "national issues" — also the highest that figure has reached.

•On the generic question of whether they favor the Democrat or Republican candidate in their district, 54% of likely voters chose the Democrat and 41% the Republican.

That 13 percentage-point gap is well below the 23-point advantage Democrats held in the previous poll, but matches the advantage that Republicans held with two weeks to go before the landmark 1994 election when they swept control of Congress.

Democrats need to pick up six seats in the Senate and 15 in the House to claim majorities in those chambers. The poll results, analysts say, indicate that many voters may take out their frustrations on incumbents and the party in power — an ominous sign for the GOP.

(snip)

link: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-10-23-poll-election_x.htm?csp=34

[fooj]

1. Oh sure. Repubs gained 10 points...

WTF? I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone.

[grasswire]

2. they're gonna claim they've got the momentum

Just watch. The pundits today were saying that the party with the momentum is the one that will win.

[fooj]

3. Sometimes I feel so helpless...

[depakid]

9. Gallop's just setting them up

Like they always do. Create a skewed poll to influence public opinion for the right wing punitocracy

Hint: there's a reason why Gallop has zero credibility in graduate schools and is sometimes held up as a shining example of how not to do research.

[Fluffdaddy]

23. 30 minutes into the day and the wingnut radio talkers are pushing this poll

Everyday I make my rounds of the Right wing-nut talkers before I make my way to AAR and PBS. Already they are spinning this poll as proof that people are coming back to the GOP.

Please people lets not get overconfident. We have two weeks to go.....LETS FIGHT EVEN HARDER

[Erika]

4. I've got NO problem with the GOP maintaining control

of this F/n mess. Let them clean up their own garbage.

[w4rma]

6. There comes a time when the mess has to be fixed. That time is now.

As long as the Rethugs remain in power, the mess will get messier.

[Onlooker]

19. What about the victims of Republicans?

I gather you're not poor, gay, Arab, far left, living near hazardous waste, close to retirement, from NO, earning minimum wage, etc. There are real victims of Republican policies and I'd rather have moderate Democrats than right-wing Republicans.

[w4rma]

32. Was that reply for a post other than mine? (nt)

[rodeodance]

8. they won't clean it up cause they do not think they made a mess.

[modrepub]

10. Would like to see a change

but I don't think a change in control will change anything overnight. The prez does not know how to listen and he thinks his God is on his side. We are in such deep doo doo right now I don't really see any easy way out.

[pokercat999]

12. If the repug criminals steal this election (which I'm afraid

they may) there may be only one remaining solution. The "Thomas Jefferson Solution", revolution and revolt by any means necessary.

[modrepub]

13. A bit radical

Would expect that solution from the "radical right". We all know why the NRA supports gun rights; to overthrow any "offensive government", meaning "socialist commie democrats". I don't like that solution. Those who advocate such a solution should think real hard because once you cross that line it's almost impossible to go back. This country is fragmented enough already. We are dangerously close to some type of disintegration. I really don't need candidates or people who are only going to contribute more to the political tension this country already faces.

[pokercat999]

25. And splitting the nation into two or more countries

would be a bad thing in what respect? I would much prefer a peaceful solution to our problem which I see as irreconcilable differences between the "American Taliban" and normal Americans. I can't imagine taking up arms against my own country but my question is if the repugs steal this election will it still be my country? By any means necessary could also mean by civil disobedience without violence on my part. I subscribe to Ganda's "There are causes for which I would give my life, but none for which I'd take a life", or words to that effect.

[modrepub]

26. Impossible to split

Think of British partition of India and Bangladesh; too much violence and upheaval. Even in the uber red and blue portions of this country you'll find progressives and conservatives. I'm against moving people against their will as much as I'm against making people think a certain way that I think is right (for the most part). I have some faith that this system will work. There may be some gaming of it but can you honestly say both sides won't be trying to do things for their own benefit?

I will have some sense of relief if the dems can capture the House and/or the Senate, but I am under no illusion that the skies will magically open up and all with be right with the world if they do. Bush will not kowtow to anyone (he's very headstrong and arrogant). Impeachment, however well deserved, is not an option in my opinion. The next president is going to have a lot of crap to clean up after this misadministration. That person will need help from all of us regardless of political persuasion.

E Pluribus Unum

[stella]

16. I was thinking the same thing

let the republicans commit suicide trying to fix this mess.

[Jawja]

24. I agree with you, Erika.

although it would be GREAT if the Dems could seize at least one house of Congress, I wouldn't mind seeing the Repugs keep their power for the moment. Let there be NO mistake that it is the Republican Party that is destroying this country; perhaps after enough damage is done, the Bush Criminal Cabal will be finished in politics and the GOP as we know it DEAD for years to come.

I have a sinking feeling in my gut that they will steal it and will retain their control of Congress. Just a feeling.

[Miss Chybil]

28. We buried in garbage. It's time to start digging ourselves out. nt

[9119495]

29. I hope we win but a loss means we could all have universal health

care by 2010. These guys staying in power might result in a swing unprecedented in American history. I want our best candidates in there now, but I do feel like I could get everything I wanted in 2009.

[greeneyedboy]

5. 14 days left--let's make it happen.

[struggle4progress]

7. Last five polls

Data from http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/election_tags/congress

D 49 R 37 Oct 23 Cook/RT (+12)
D 54 R 41 Oct 23 ABC/WaPo (+13)
D 54 R 41 Oct 23 Gallup (+13)
D 55 R 37 Oct 21 Newsweek (+18)
D 51 R 40 Oct 19 GQR (+11)

Average: D 52.6 R 39.2 (+13.4)

[papau]

11. Ipsos poll stead at 13% since Sept while USAToday "0" to "23" to 13%

Gallup needs help.

[GOPNotForMe]

14. 10-point "gain" is B.S. framing.

Two weeks ago, the generic ballot was 48-48, then last week we were up 23 points (an insanely high amount which makes me doubt the validity of their polling methods even more), and then we're "down" ten points from last time with a 13 point edge. No other polling outfit, without exception, has been showing such dramatic swings in all directions over such a short period of time.

In other words, Gallup = crap de la crap.

[stella]

15. Foley is gone

no more talk about pedophile and 16 years old helps Republicans.

[zanne]

17. Tow weeks before the election.

This is becoming a pattern. In most of the polls, the Republicans miraculously "catch up" with the Democrats during the last two weeks. I've been dreading this. It makes a stolen election much more believable.

[gully]

18. Check polling report HERE. Gallup was the only poll that had us up 23

in the first place.

Bottom line - we're doing well.

http://pollingreport.com/2006.htm

[Fluffdaddy]

20. After November 2004 I no longer trust Polls

[Fluffdaddy]

21. Sorry................bad post location

[Zynx]

27. I would be cautious about that analogy.

Most polls showed Bush ahead by about 2%. He won by 2.5%. He was ahead in most polls in Ohio and also Florida and he won both. Big surprise./sarcasm

[demo dutch]

31. In elections all over the world, polls are used to measure fair elections, so if

our election turns out otherwise, is America going to accept the false results again? Just like last time?

[bluestateguy]

22. There is no way they were ever 23 points ahead

This poll is more in line with the double digit lead Democrats have in other generic ballot matchups.

[demo dutch]

30. In elections all over the world, polls are used to measure fair elections, so if

our election turns out otherwise, is America going to accept the false results again? Just like last time?