Poll says Davis has caught up with Crist (FL)

[Scurrilous]

<snip>

"A shift in the mind-set of independent voters has made Florida's governor's race a ''dead heat,'' according to a new poll by Quinnipiac University.

The poll, released today, shows Democrat Jim Davis narrowing the gap with Republican Charlie Crist to two points -- 46 percent to 44 -- well within the poll's 3.4 percent margin of error.

Two weeks ago, a similar poll by the university found that Crist, the state attorney general, held a 10-point advantage over Davis, a congressman from Tampa. But that lead has eroded because of a 21-point shift among independent voters, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Independents flipped from favoring Crist by a 50-43 percent margin to favoring Davis by a 50-36 margin.

The Democrat, who trails Crist significantly in fundraising, waited until two weeks ago to begin running a series of three 15-second television ads."

<snip>

"Obviously now that his ads have been on the air he has made significant progress,'' Brown said. ``The Florida governor's election is now a real horse race. It took Jim Davis a while to introduce himself to Florida voters, but he seems to have broken through and made a positive impression on many Floridians to whom he was until recently an unknown."

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15829758.htm

[saltpoint]

1. OK, Floridians. Now's your chance to toss Crist into the

Everglades for the crocodiles and alligators and elect Jim Davis.

I heard Davis speak in Tampa a few days before the 2004 election. It was a Kerry rally, with the terrific Goo Goo Dolls whipping up the crowd (they were way better than usual that night, and their usual is already great), and Davis was among the Democrats on hand to address the crowd.

I like Jim Davis already, and want him to win, but this recent poll has thrown some burnable wood onto the fire.

Let's go get 'em.

[0rganism]

2. All right - this is turning around at the right time

The last two weeks make all the difference. I like Davis' momentum on flipping the indy voters, I like that a lot.

Davis might just have a chance in a fair vote count.

[seasat]

3. Y'all need to check out the Blog on the campaign wesite.

You can post comments to the sections (LINK). It is pretty inactive as I am the only one posting comments, now. Drop by and post. They don't appear to moderate the comments. I've seen Repug trolls post there. Of course, they were easily discredited with a few reality based comments. Some of the newspapers were criticizing his campaign blog since it was so inactive so lets help liven it up.

[bluestateguy]

4. I'll need to see more polls with similar results before I'm convinced

It may just be an outlier because all other polls show a high single digit lead ot more for Crist. This may just be a fluke.

[seasat]

5. Rasmussen poll on the 17th had the spread at 5.

The Mason Dixon on the 17th had an 11 pt spread but only covered registered voters. The Quinnipac and Ramussen covered likely voters. We've got two polls of likely voters in a couple of days showing a tight race.