US Reviews War Plan on N. Korea

[Phrogman]

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200610/kt2006101617231910160.htm

The United States is mapping out a new theater war plan on the Korean Peninsula aimed at striking weapons of mass destruction in North Korea, reports said yesterday, citing an unidentified Chinese defense expert in Canada.

The U.S. move comes after North Korea's self-proclaimed nuclear weapon test on Oct. 9.

According to the report, the United States is considering a plan against North Korea to neutralize Pyongyang's nuclear capability with overwhelming use of the U.S. Air Force.

>>>

Washington is reportedly committed to dispatching some 690,000 troops with 1,600 aircraft and 160 ships to the peninsula within 90 days after a war breaks out under OPLAN 5027.

[wakeme2008]

1. Where the FUCK is Bush going to get 690,000 troop....

This is crazy talk...

[leftchick]

2. a draft?

[Eurobabe]

3. Oh shit...

Somebody needs to edit that poster to reflect the fact that George WAR Bush wants to nuke everybody, not just A-rabs...this is extremely disturbing....

[Quantess]

24. What an amazing poster!

That's awesome! Where did you find it?

[paparush]

25. You can find all those cool posters at:

www.whitehouse.org (not to mention some wicked black humor)

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

5. You can't train 690,000 troops in 90 days. n/t

[leftchick]

6. tell that to rummy

I am sure he will listen being the essence of good judgment that he is.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

9. Point taken. n/t

[HereSince1628]

4. The plan is to use the Air Force.

Rummy loves the fast-moving deliverers of death and is an acolyte of Curtis LeMay, believing that fire from the sky is a cleansing preparatory baptism to peace brought about by surgical strikers who never see their targets.

Their Alfred E. Newman-esque motto is "Who needs troops? We've got air power."

[jayfish]

12. They Are Going To Need The Troops To Take Back The South.

After NK pounds it with artillery and marches a few-handed thousand of his own soldiers on down. I hope * and company have a plan for what to do after the strikes this time.

Jay

[HereSince1628]

13. Rummy doesn't think so. Believe me it's the same idiocy for Iran

An insane belief of low casualty high efficiency warfare brought to US by technology.

OF COURSE bombing won't secure geography. It simply breaks things. Unfortunately, the rumnut in the pentagon believes bouncing the rubble is enough to call the native opposition out to cause regime change.

[OldSiouxWarrior]

14. South Korea should be able to handle the North.

Funny how everybody likes to think of them as a liability. They aren't. SK has twice the population of the North. The SK economy is booming and is many times larger than NK's.

Kim's military is very poorly trained (It takes lots money to train a military.)and most of their equipment is grossly obsolete. (It takes lots of money to have up-to-date equipment.) SK has to money and has a modern military that is well trained.

Kim's only advantage is that Seoul is within artillery range from the North. Kim could badly damage Seoul.

[jayfish]

15. You Have It Backward.

They have antiquated equipment by they are very well trained. All the money in that country goes to the military. Have a look at what General James Marks said on the subject:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0610/15/tww.01.html

ROBERTS: What are we looking at as far as the North Korea threat goes?

MARKS: Size matters. It's a very large military, John.

Let's get down into North Korean. There are about - there are over 1 million men that on the ground. They have a brown water or coastal navy to affect operations along the coast. Very aggressive fighter and bomber fleet, to include a lot of special operating aircraft as well. Special operations forces as well.

ROBERTS: So large and dangerous basically is what we're talking about.

MARKS: It is and they train pretty aggressively. A lot of stuff is antiquated but it's a very good military. Let's look at the primary thing however, that can affect operations on the peninsulas and that's their missile forces and then I'll talk about their rocket and artillery a little bit.

This is the range of what's called the Scud B missile and it can get out to about 300 -- about 180 miles. This is the Scud C, that gets out to a little over 380, and now you're into the Nodong range and in the Taepodong 1, which was fired in '98 and this is where it landed. The Taepodong II which was the failed attempt just last month could reach the United States if it was successful.

ROBERTS: So that could be well off the screen if they get that one developed.

MARKS: Absolutely. Now let's walk it down a little more closely and look at their artillery and rocket capability. If I was in a U.S. aircraft or a South Korean aircraft, this would be my attack angle as I go after this artillery location.

ROBERTS: This the border here and the DMZ.

MARKS: This is the demilitarized zone separating South from North. So in flying into this, I have to go North and attack into the South, because this is in a buried location right here.

ROBERTS: Behind the mountain.

MARKS: Behind the mountain and very deeply buried, so I have to get through the mountain and I have to go after the artillery piece, and when they employ it comes out on rails or it just is simply pulled out and it fires and it gets right back in.

ROBERTS: So these are all buried in the mountains and very well concealed.

MARKS: Absolutely right. Very well concealed. Very highly protected. Deeply buried, hardened sites.

Let's also look, John, at their special operations forces which can really affect operations on the peninsula. As I said, they have a coastal navy which can affect operations. This how they would drop, in small boats and they would drop the special operations forces off and they would also insert in An-2 Colt aircraft by wing, which is soft skin, so it's very difficult to pick up on radar. Over 100,000 special operations forces to link up with sleeper agents that are already in the South.

ROBERTS: Sleeper agents already there, who have been there for years.

MARKS: Have to assume that, absolutely in large numbers.

ROBERTS: And we should point out, too, when talking about the artillery, look at the proximity of Seoul, the capital city which is homes to millions and millions of people to the border there and to the artillery pieces.

MARKS: It's what you live with every night. The forces on the Korean peninsula, the combined forces command have an expression, fight tonight, not tomorrow, you fight tonight, because of that proximity.

ROBERTS: And if they were to engage in military operations, what would the casualty count be on the South Korea side?

MARKS: I can't estimate, but it is well into the thousands. Well into the thousands. And there is a very large, as you can imagine, U.S. presence and international presence. This is a very large, international, vibrant city.

ROBERTS: So basically, again, very few good military options to attack the North with?

MARKS: Very tough. Very tough. The training's in place, but the North koreans have trained as well. This would be a very nasty fight.

ROBERTS: Spider Marks, thanks very much.

MARKS: Thank you, John.

IMO we would be pushed very near, if not totally off, the peninsula. Much like the start of the Korean war. We would then have to reinforce (draft) and retake the south. It would be long and ugly.

Jay

[OldSiouxWarrior]

19. He is wrong about the NK level of training.

It takes money to train - especially for an air force.

First, I admitted up front that most of Seoul is within artillery range of the North. So that is a really big problem. Kim can do a LOT of damage to Seoul.

Now let's look at the rest of the military problem.

You can't invade without air superiority. That takes a modern, trained air force. Take a look at his air force: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/airforce.htm
Obsolete planes and very little pilot flight time means that, in a shooting war, his air force will be little more than targets. Now look at South Korea's air force: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/rok/airforce.htm
SK's AF is much bigger, modern, and highly trained. If the shooting starts, SK would be able to own the air, even without US help.

The missiles do not have precision guidance. That means that it would be difficult for them to hit an important military target. The missiles would be terror weapons against cities. In a war, you need to be able to take out military targets.

The hidden artillery. So a plane has to fly north of a mountain to attack an arty site. So? When the hidden arty piece fires, it location will be known to radars that back calculate from the flight of the shell the location of the firing piece. Since they are hard mounted in shelters, they can't move fast. In modern war, the rule for an artillery piece is to move the entire gun real quick after three rounds, because radar directed counter battery rounds from the enemy will be arriving real soon. In Kim's case, that would mean that the first outbound shell lights up the radar, and after a couple of more shells the exact position of the firing piece is known, coordinates electronically relayed to an attack plane that is loitering in the air nearby, the data is downloaded to the guidance system of the bomb, the plane flies to the north side of the mountain (but a few miles up)and drops a couple of GPS guided presents.

NK SAMs? They need fire control radar for guidance. Anti Radar Missiles can easily take them out as soon as they turn on their radar.

NK Special Ops Troops? Yes, they can be a headache, but that's all.

NK Navy? Not much. You can't pack much firepower in a patrol boat. And SK would own the skies that the NK ships would have to operate under.

Now let's look at his Army. You can't train a mechanized army without using lots of fuel and ammo and spare parts for equipment and that takes LOTS of money. Kim simply doesn't have that kind of money.

South Korea would be able to handle NK by themselves. Then there is the possibility that Japan may get involved on SK's side. They have an extremely modern, highly trained, super motivated air force.

Kim's forces would get chewed to pieces.

In fact, we should withdraw our forces and tell SK that they don't need us anymore.

[jayfish]

22. Some Thoughts

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/intro.htm

The "Military First" orientation has always been the heart and soul of the North Korean regime. It provides the only conceivable means by which the regime can survive and achieve its ultimate security through reunification. The military continues to grow in both conventional and asymmetrical forces with increasing emphasis on the latter. The military provides deterrence, defense, and a massive offensive threat, as well as leverage in international negotiations. The army is much more than just a military organization; it is North Korea's largest employer, purchaser, and consumer, the central unifying structure in the country, and the source of power for the regime.

The DPRK's military is getting bulk of everything that country has to spend. That's why the general population starves. While I agree that their equipment is not up to modern standards (only because nobody will sell them anything), I'd be willing to bet their training is constant and adequate. I'd also bet that their most modern equipment is, if not well maintained, highly serviceable.

Operational thinking reflects both Soviet doctrine and the North Korean experience of heavy bombing during the Korean War. The result has been in reliance on air defense. Military industries, aircraft hangars, repair facilities, ammunition, fuel stores, and even air defense missile systems are placed underground or in hardened shelters. North Korea has an extensive interlocking, redundant nationwide air defense system that includes interceptor aircraft, early warning and ground-controlled intercept radars, SAMs, a large number of air defense artillery weapons, and barrage balloons.

Important military and industrial complexes are defended by antiaircraft artillery. Point defenses are supplemented by barrage balloons. North Korea has an exceptionally large number of antiaircraft sites. The largest concentration is along the DMZ and around major cities, military installations, and factories.

The bulk of North Korean radars are older Soviet and Chinese models with vacuum-tube technology, which limits continuous operations. The overall early warning and ground controlled intercept system is susceptible to saturation and jamming by a sophisticated foe with state-of-the-art electronic warfare capabilities. Nevertheless, the multilayered, coordinated, mutually supporting air defense structure is a formidable deterrent to air attack. Overlapping coverage and redundancy make penetration of North Korean air defenses a challenge.

The transport fleet has some 1950s- and 1960s-vintage former Soviet transports, including more than 270 An-2/COLT light transports and 10 An-24/COKEs. The COLT's ability to land on short, rough strips, makes it especially suited for the task of transporting SOF units. It can hold 10 combat troops and cruise at 160 kilometers (km) an hour. The NKAF has at least six COLT regiments and at least six regiments of attack and transport helicopters.

The DPRK, with over 8,800 AA guns, combined with SA-2, SA-3, and SA-5, and handheld SA-7 and SA-16 surface-to-air missiles, has constructed one of the world's most dense air defense networks. In the mid- 1980s, the former Soviet Union supplied SA-3/GOA surface-to-air missiles to the DPRK. The SA-3 provides short-range defense against low- flying aircraft. In 1987, the former Soviet Union provided SA-5/GAMMON surface-to-air missiles that gave Pyongyang a long-range, highaltitude, surface-to-air missile capability. The SA-2 GUIDELINE system provides medium-range, medium-altitude point defense for cities and military airfields, as well as a barrier defense along the DMZ.

SA-2 and SA-3 battalions are concentrated along the coastal corridors, while most SA-5 GAMMON battalions are located near the DMZ and are extended north to cover Pyongyang.

Here's where I'm coming from; NK doesn't need air-superiority to inflict catastrophic damage on the south and US forces stationed there. As a matter of fact I think air-superiority in this situation is highly over-rated. NK has 8000 artillery tubes and 2500 artillery rockets to use up. Even running around the clock it would take all the air forces you mentioned, combined, a long, long time to even find all of NK's artillery sites. ...let alone destroy them. Once the tubes are found the attackers air-force has to fly over NK airspace then back around toward the south to have a good run at a target. To insure accuracy, these runs will probably have to be made at low to medium altitudes. Now the attacking air-force is open to NK's massive, yet antiquated, air-defense system. So what you will have in the first days, if not weeks, of a conflict is the attackers air-force concentrating on NK's air defenses. All the while NK's artillery will be hammering the south with ground troops pouring through the DMZ under the cover of said artillery. The combined forces of the US, SK and maybe Japan could eventually prevail but the cost would be incalculable.

Jay

[OldSiouxWarrior]

28. Let's take a closer look at that

NK has 8000 artillery tubes and 2500 artillery rockets to use up.

I have already stated that they can do great damage to Seoul. But Seoul isn't the entire country. An artillery piece has a limited range. Even the long range ones peak out at about 20 miles.

Even running around the clock it would take all the air forces you mentioned, combined, a long, long time to even find all of NK's artillery sites

They are in fixed sites. Once the gun fires, radar picks up the shell in flight. The gun is found and marked. Many of their places are already known, but I have no idea how many.

. ...let alone destroy them. Once the tubes are found the attackers air-force has to fly over NK airspace then back around toward the south to have a good run at a target.

To be able to hit very far into the South, an NK arty piece will have to be pretty close to the DMZ. So we are talking about a trip North of a couple of miles, a turn South, and pickle the bomb. Not a big deal.

To insure accuracy, these runs will probably have to be made at low to medium altitudes.

VERY WRONG!!!! You are thinking of WWII bombing runs. Even at the close of Vietnam we were using laser guided bombs. Now we use GPS guidance, and they can have the targeting data loaded into the bomb while the plane is in flight. GPS guided bombs are just as accurate dropped from high altitude.

Now the attacking air-force is open to NK's massive, yet antiquated, air-defense system.

Nope. For reason above, and because we will be working on that air defense system. Every time they light up a radar, it will have an anti-radar homing missile coming at the radar, or it will be jammed, or spoofed.

So what you will have in the first days, if not weeks, of a conflict is the attackers air-force concentrating on NK's air defenses.

Nope. With GPS guidance on the bombs, we are able to be so accurate that we can use a smaller bomb than before to get the same destruction where we want it. That means the plane can carry more bombs, each one ASSIGNED TO A DIFFERENT TARGET. One plane can take out over a dozen artillery sites.

All the while NK's artillery will be hammering the south with ground troops pouring through the DMZ under the cover of said artillery.

The tactical answer to that is well known. We would have to fall back a few miles from the DMZ. That would be part of any competent military's plan. It is like a boxer who rolls with the punch. This puts their infantry forward of the coverage of their artillery. Then they have to move the arty, and it is much easier to take out once it starts moving.

Also, by dropping back you force them to reveal the axis of their attack. They have to move supplies forward and air will be chewing up those supplies.

Those troops will be in the open and will be chewed up by our MODERN artillery, cluster bombs, fuel-air bombs. They will be counter-attacked by modern, well trained, highly mobile forces. That infantry will be tank and cannon fodder.

The combined forces of the US, SK and maybe Japan could eventually prevail but the cost would be incalculable.

The cost would indeed by high, but it would be even higher for NK, and he can't afford any cost.

You seriously do not understand how extremely expensive it is to keep a military well trained, nor do you seem to understand the value of training. To train a mechanized army requires getting some time in driving the equipment around and that isn't cheap. Pilots have to fly and practice dogfighting. NK pilots get only about 30% of the flight time SK pilots get. And we also have great simulators that they just don't have. The bulk of their forces are poorly trained. Further, they are trained in the old Soviet model. Each troop know his job only with very little cross-training and NO expectation of initiative.

Let's take a look at some of the equipment balance. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102&topic_id=2565646&mesg_id=2566354 Tanks are a major tools for a modern army. NK's most modern tank is the Type-59 which first appeared in 1964. (500 available) T-62 (1962 model, 800 on hand)T-54 (1954 model 1,600 on hand), T-34 (WWII model 250 on hand), PT-76 (Lightly armored amphibious tank. Basically useless. 550 on hand) Total of 3,500 obsolete to very obsolete to museum piece tanks). None of those have shoot-while-moving ability. To accurately fire the main gun the tank has to come to a complete stop, then the gun has to be aimed. Sights are optical reticle-range type.

Now let's look at SK tanks. Type88/K1A1 - These are a clone of the US M1A1. An extremely modern tank, thermal imaging sights, laser rangefinders, fire control computers. It has to ability for the crew to acquire a target, aim and accurately fire the main gun while on the move. From seeing the enemy target the crew can have a precision aimed round on the way in less than ten seconds - without having to stop the tank. (1,000 on hand)M-47 400 on hand. Older tank, about equal to a T-62. T-48 850 on hand, Introduced in 1954.

Very little is know about other NK systems, but it would be reasonable to conclude that they would be in a similar state of obsolescence.

[MrPrax]

17. Agreed...

I could never understand that rap either for exactly the same reasons -- South Korea isn't de-militarized to the extent that Japan is. Last year the two navies taggled and according to one account from the SK side, it was a pathetic ... the NK sailors clung to the decks of ship, bearly hiding behind whatever they could find, only to shoot back with pistols and small arms against the usual allotment of high calibre guns usually found on a modern navy deep-water patrol ship. SK broke off the attack since the NK boat couldn't keep up anyway.

Take a nation of people who are starving, add a war and you will probably find an army that would trade their ammo for a bag of rice. Brainwashing and 'cradle to grave' fanaticism can ONLY get you so far.

Personally I think your right about Seoul, but I think that threat is overhyped. NK is so broke that a good chunk of it's inventory is probably old surplus stuff -- once the 'new toys' have been spent or destroyed by SK/US sorties, I don't think they have much left in the tank. In fact if I slapped on my 'hawk' helmet, I think NK is a paper tiger and most of the 'hyping' of their military prowess is done simply the elements in the US and SK to keep the 'fear' alive.

NK is probably the ONLY country that the US with allies could successfully strategically bomb with an intent of killing the leadership, have the country fall into collapse and then have a reasonable success of rebuilding along peaceful lines. With South Korea in charge, the transition from despicable Stalinist charnelhouse (yes it is evil) to reasonably stable (and successful) 'tiger' is really a no-brainer. Why exactly the administration has focused exclusively on a no-win situation in the ME is really one for the ages -- they could have looked macho and successful beating up NK and few would complain (including myself) wouldn't complain that much. ;-)

Ideally of course the US, namely the Bush administration, should realize that it's position of 'not negotiating' is more batshit crazy than Kim's desperate attempts to stave off inevitable change...and is unfathomable on many levels.

But since when has reality stopped the Adminstration...

[Renew Deal]

11. That's what I wanted to know,

And why aren't they in Iraq?

[TrogL]

18. He doesn't need them

All he wants is an excuse to push teh big red button.

:nuke:

[LynnTheDem]

7. Well...on the bright side, that would be the very end of bush

and his neocon idiots.

For ever.

On the down side...well, let's just keep the bright side in mind.

:D

[Xipe Totec]

8. The bright side?

This is the bright side.



It's down hill from there.

:scared:

[LynnTheDem]

10. Uh huh...but it would be the very end of bush & his MFing idiot Cabal.

See? There is too a bright side!

:D

[AndyTiedye]

16. No It Wouldn't. They'd Declare Martial Law and Stay in Power Forever

[LynnTheDem]

29. Who are they gonna martial law over?

I suspect you didn't catch my meaning. :D

[KittyWampus]

20. "unidentified Chinese defense expert in Canada"

[cliss]

21. Ok, let's look at these numbers.

The US is committed to dispatching some 690,000 troops. The US in fact has about 1.1 million active duty troops.

I believe North Korea has the world's largest standing army of around 1 million foot soldiers.

BUT they are stationed around the world, in various bases belonging to the Empire. We currently have about 155,000 in Iraq and 20,000 in Afghanistan. The US is stretched paper thin. The only way they could do this would be to pull almost everybody out of the bases + clean out US military installations.

Also, let's not forget the cost. Waging wars cost MONEY BABY. We are already broke from Iraq. Can you imagine how much it would cost to dispatch 690,000? We are bankrupt. Every penny for Iraq & Afg. was borrowed from the future.

= (not happening)

[Megahurtz]

23. W-H-A-T T-H-E F-U-C-K ??????

:wtf:
Are they totally and completely insane???:wow:

What makes them think everyone in the U.S. is going to go along with this?

NO FUCKING DRAFT!!! NO WAY!!!:grr:

YOU CAN TAKE YOUR WAR AND SHOVE IT!!!

:rant:

These FreaksInOffice have no regard for life!:nuke:
Not ours or not anyone's!
Their bullying is going to drag us all down with them!:scared:

I seriously can't believe I'm hearing this!

[lebkuchen]

26. Glad I'm not on the Korean Peninsula now (have friends there)

If I could move myself off the planet, I would.

[jhain]

27. Oh, Yeah?

W and what army?

[OneBlueSky]

30. war, war, war, war, war!!! . . . that's all we hear from these people . .

haven't they ever heard about that new concept called diplomacy? . . . you know, talking? . . . pursuing peaceful solutions to international problems? . . . hell, it worked throughout the Cold War! . . .