US push for air strikes (North Korean nuclear sites)

[sabra]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21811,20553645...

US push for air strikesMark Dunn

PENTAGON hawks will try to persuade US President George W. Bush he should order immediate military air strikes to obliterate North Korean nuclear sites.

Australian National University defence expert Ron Huisken said Mr Bush's chief advisers would be gunning for action without waiting for a lead from the United Nations.
"The President will receive some advice to the effect that it is better not to wait, that there will not be a clearer trigger point than what we have now," said Dr Huisken, senior fellow at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

...

Despite the risks, Dr Ayson, a specialist in North Asian strategy, said the US military option was a real possibility, given Mr Bush has said he could not tolerate a nuclear North Korea.

"Military action is now more likely after the test, but is probably less than 50 per cent (likely)," Dr Ayson said.

US intelligence sources said the Bush Administration was considering naval action around North Korea, stopping short of a blockade but intercepting and inspecting all ships off the peninsula.

[BluePatriot]

1. I don't see what option they do have

...given that NK can pummel Seoul with all that artillery in the event of strikes on that nuclear site *shivers*

[phantom power]

22. One reasonable option: let them have the bomb.

It's somehow become Conventional Wisdom(tm) that the world is somehow going to end if {Iran, North Korea, Iraq, etc....) gets The Bomb. Why? The unspoken assumption is always "Well, they're crazy enough to use it!"

I don't buy it. In fact, I hereby nominate the United States as Most Likely To Initiate First Nuclear Strike.

[Zhade]

34. Indeed, it's the only country to have ever done so.

NT!

[INDIA]

61. ...and go through several major wars

without using it again. If we didn't use it in Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, USSR, Iraq, guess what? We ain't gonna use it again without it being absolutely neccessary.

[heliarc]

65. Is that why we broke from Non Proliferation

To start making air to ground tactical nukes again perchance?

Or why we decided that littering Iraq and Afghanistan with Depleted Uranium was a good idea?

This Bush Regime has decidedly renegged on the US's former commitments to reduce the production of Nuclear Arms. That, and the US has a very convenient double standard when defining "Weapons of Mass Destruction" Somehow we get to use them but no one else does. Not sure where the logic is in that, except to argue for Imperialist domination of the planet.

Well, its not going to be too long before we piss a lot of people off.. Wait... Damn... already happened.

[Toots]

68. And we absolutely with all certainty would never do away with Habeas Corpus

[BluePatriot]

43. I hope they leave them alone

I guess I just don't trust this admin to make any smart choices right now. Maybe that's why my post seemed so fatalistic.

[phantom power]

51. It's really impossible to say what BushCo might do....

or not do. The normal rules of rational behavior just don't seem to apply. Pretty scary.

[coalition_unwilling]

44. US has already initiated first nuclear strike (on Hiroshima and

Nagasaki). Our utter hypocrisy is plain for the entire world to see, as we fail to abide by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ourselves (which calls upon current nuclear powers to disarm, in return for non-nuclear nations not going nuclear).

[harun]

56. Still M.A.D

It is still mutually assured desctruction for North and South Korea, so a stalemate. If the U.S. attacked the massacre on that peninsula would be unthinkable. At the end of it what would anyone gain?

The U.S. knows Kim can't use his weapons on the South. The minute he does he would lose the thing he cares most about, power.

The problem this creates for the whole region is what they are really worried about. South Korea will go nuclear, so will Japan. This will cause China to ramp up and Taiwan will already see these events and be pushing to go nuclear themselves.

[Neshanic]

66. I thought that this morning, let them just freaking have it. It's not

like other countries are going to not have it either with the US being run by a screaming howler monkey.

[endarkenment]

27. Huh?

We have no option except to go to war again? Really? Can't think of anything else?

[BluePatriot]

41. As outlined below,

"don't see any options" = "damned if we do, damned if we don't, god Bush sucks"

Sorry for confusion. Should learn to write better in GD!

[Zhade]

35. Go sign up then, chief. Put your money where your big war-lovin' mouth is.

NT!

[BluePatriot]

40. *shrug*

Sorry for confusion, was kind of outlining how this is a scary "damned if we do, damned if we don't, because airstrikes will result in much chaos for Seoul, but letting NK have the bomb is not really a good thing" scenario. I mean to say, I find no options remotely desirable or viable right now, and that scares me. The USA is never supposed to have zero choices...but thanks to the failure of BushCo, looks like that doctrine is out the window. I swear I have never seen such FUBAR policy. Total LIHOP.

*hates airstrikes

*edit for typos, clarity

[leesa]

54. Well, why not do what North Korea wants. They want to talk. They want an

agreement for food and trade. You can't see any other option, huh?

They have wanted to talk with the US for years now, Bush has refused.

But you can't see ANY OTHER OPTION other than bombing?

[BluePatriot]

59. Please don't mistake...

...my failure to see any positive options, as a desire to see bombing. "I don't see what options we have" means exactly such -- I think we are stuck, and cannot pursue any action w/o grave consequence. Airstrikes would have grave consequence. No airstrikes, possibly grave consequence in the fact that we seem to be tolerating nuclear proliferation, although, with careful diplomacy, perhaps we could work something out.

It just seems that, since Bushco has ignored them for so long, what could we possibly do? I don't trust Bushco to use nuanced, intellegent diplomacy here to any effect. Again, not the most positive mindset.

I do, however, encourage less negative and more hopeful DUers such as yourself to think of a good solution to this issue.

*edit for typos...again...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. LOL

Well, that certainly would distract from the child molesters in the GOP.

[xultar]

3. That'd be more like wagging Godzilla than the dog.

[calimary]

53. Indeed.

I said something about that here...

humbly submitted..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[grytpype]

4. Add to the list: Bush let NK get the Bomb.

The only foreign policy Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld has is to wage war and demand unconditional surrender. They won't talk to NK or Iran (like they couldn't talk to Iraq).

Since they couldn't attack NK and Kim won't surrender, they just stood around holding their dicks while NK made bombs.

Now the War Party is happy because the world is a more dangerous place, which can be used to justify more war.

I would compare them to Hitler, but they are too incompetent and deluded. Even Hitler knew if you want to start a World War, you have to build up your military first. The War Party coonts just up and decided to start WW3 with the army we happened to have, guaranteeing failure and disgrace.

[MidwestTransplant]

5. Not going to happen. The gang of incompetents had their bluff called.

You couldn't create a more incompetent group if you tried.

Fools.

[lonestarnot]

6. Did anyone have any doubt about this move? I mean diplomacy hasn't

been in the cards period, so anyone with different expectations at this point, well sorry you're disappointed.

[Lasher]

31. Nope, no doubts here

The Knucklehead-in-Chief pretty much forced them to build nukes.

[lonestarnot]

52. Scared the crap out of them too.

[TechBear_Seattle]

7. Oh yeah, like THAT would be a good idea

The very last thing the Repugs need is for US bombs to blow up a North Korean nuclear facility, spreading radioactive waste across the Pacific to poison Oregon and California and likely Washington and British Columbia and Alaska too, before heading further east.

Nothing says, "Republicans are making the world safer" than letting them cause a nuclear holocaust.

[sutz12]

11. All a bunch of blue states anyway...

BushCo wouldn't miss us much.

[TechBear_Seattle]

15. That is 73 electoral votes, and the largest Congressional delegation

Blue states or not, they'd miss us.

And as the nuclear wind spreads east, it will affect Arizona, Nevada, Idaho... a lot of red states, too. How do you think farmers in Montana will vote if their entire hay crop becomes tainted with radioactive fallout caused Republican air raids on Korea? Cattle and sheep ranchers in Colorado?

[bluerum]

8. All together now: Air Strikes, Air Strikes, Air Strikes, Air Strikes !!! n

[54anickel]

9. Nice corner the egotistical Dimson has painted himself into. His past

rhetoric of "cannot tolerate a nuclear NK" has met up with his past "cannot have direct talks with NK". Hope the American people see what an absolute failure he is and how his lack of diplomacy and preference for that in-charge cowboy image has probably re-ignited a global nuclear arms race.

[Beetwasher]

14. Bush Has Run Out Of Corners, He's Either Painted Himself Into All Of Them

Or turned all of them.

[TexasLawyer]

37. good one!

[Drum]

10. When you only pack a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. nt

[allisonthegreat]

12. Figures, n/t

[Beetwasher]

13. And I'm Sure China Will Stand Idly By And Let THAT Happen

Not.

[crikkett]

16. not just china but s. korea and japan

[Infinite Hope]

17. October Surprise

Late Evening News Break: Address From The President

"Good evening fellow Americans. My administration has pushed for diplomatic resolution to the North Korean crisis throughout. As you have now probably heard, North Korean taunted all peaceful nations and thumbed its nose at a broad international diplomatic coalition by successfully testing a nuclear bomb capable of reaching the United States. After careful consideration of my options, I ordered the United States Air Force to decimate all suspected North Korean nuclear weapons sites and all other suspected sites connected with the program..."

[Vinca]

20. You beat me to it. Dropping a nuke is the October surprise.

You don't think King George will settle for conventional weapons when he can one up the North Korean lunatic . . . do you? What a world - ruled by lunatics both here and there. I'm grateful I don't have children to inherit this mess (assuming, of course, we all live that long).

[radfringe]

21. he won't nuke North Korea

he'll nuke Iran

[corkhead]

24. Look where we are, we are arguing about WHICH country this dangerous SOB

is going to nuke to maintain control of all levers of power.

Maybe we should start a pool.

[0007]

55. I'm sure of it!

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

33. Bye bye, Seoul.

You are kidding, right?

[coalition_unwilling]

45. We lost roughly 55,000 soldiers during the "Police Action" from

'48-'52. The North Koreans will not, I repeat WILL NOT, roll over and play dead for us the way the Iraqi armed forces did.

Last time I checked, we had some 40,000 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.

[Freedom_from_Chains]

18. You had to know this was coming. I excepted him to announce

air strikes in his speech this morning.

[ama]

19. Rummy's North Korea Connection

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld rarely keeps his opinions to himself. He tends not to compromise with his enemies. And he clearly disdains the communist regime in North Korea. So it's surprising that there is no clear public record of his views on the controversial 1994 deal in which the U.S. agreed to provide North Korea with two light-water nuclear reactors in exchange for Pyongyang ending its nuclear weapons program. What's even more surprising about Rumsfeld's silence is that he sat on the board of the company that won a $200 million contract to provide the design and key components for the reactors http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/...

[The Stranger]

23. And while you are at it, kiss Tokyo and Seoul good bye.

[Strelnikov_]

25. Not Going To Happen. PetroFreedom Quotient Is Nonexistent

Lack of hydrocarbons to liberate indicates continuation of ineffective bluster as the most profitable course.

[ryanus]

26. I participated in a NK war exercises a few years ago

Any NBC (nuclear, biological, nuclear) battles on the Korean peninsula is bad news. Keep in mind that North and South Korea each are only about as big as the size of Indiana. The capital of NK and the capital of SK are only about 60 miles apart, each about 30 miles from the border. Think of a city 60 miles from where you are and imagine a few nukes and chemical attack on that city. You will be effected.

I was in an exercise few years ago on the peninsula that involved NBC attacks. I can remember seeing several maps that showed circles of damage areas. A certain size nuke might have a 100% kill rate of a radius of 10 miles, 50% at radius 20 miles (I don't remember the actual numbers), plus similar circles on the maps for chemical attacks and the time it would take for the chemicals to dissipate. Nearly all the peninsular was covered by a circle, and all the cities had multiple circles in the exerice. Some damage done by NK, some by US and SK.

Bottom line is that no one wants an NBC battle on the peninsula, NK or SK. It would probably kill it off for years. This is probably why the north has not attacked the south, and vice versa. They are just too close to each. You would be effected by your own munitions.

I got into the military because of the threat of NK. NK was my specialty, although I wouldn't say I knew all that much about it. But I expected that there would be a confronation with the north in the near future (at the time), so I joined to help out since I spoke korean. 8 years later, nothing happened, and the focus changed to terrorism and the middle east, with not much attention given to NK, so I didn't re-enlist when my enlistment expired.

[endarkenment]

28. I seem to recall that NK can obliterate Seoul with conventional

arms within hours of the commencement of hostilities.

[ryanus]

38. That may be possible

NK and SK are positioned in a rare way. They don't really need to invade each other, or send trops, or aircraft, or really even deploy. It's like they already are on the front lines. They don't even realy need missles. There are types of artillery that could be fired from near the border to the enemy capital. No warning. So if one country wanted to destroy the other's capital city, they probably in a very short time, even using conventional weapons. But it's the retaliation that is the biggest problem. China backs North Korea, and the US backs South Korea. It is very likely that a new conflict on the peninsula would escalate very quickly into a China-US war. No guarantees, but definitely likely.

But if either side were to only use conventional, you could inflict massive damage in the initial hit, but both sides are prepared for this scenario and would respond with a similar hit and probably invasion. The south has three major army's, two on the border, one in the back. So if there is a big hit with conventional in any only place, two of the armies would probably be activated to do serious damage. I don't know how the north is organized anymore.

[Olney Blue]

30. Good post. How do you think the U.S. government should react to this test?

[ryanus]

39. I really don't know. NK is a bad place, they do bad things

There are bad prison camps where they do some very bad Nazi-like things. People are starving. But the people don't really have a choice now of whether to support the current administration or get another, so you really can't blame the people in NK, just the leadership. NK talks tough, but I think it's more to keep the US away rather than that they really want to destroy the US. They do want the south back, and they still don't recognize South Korea as a country. SK is more of US occupied territory to NK.

It's like, how to do stop two guys bent on killing each other, who are locked in a jail cell, each with a knife and a loaded gun pointed at each other? Throw in a bunch of innocent men, women, and children in the cell. The strategy of US so far has been to try to wait for NK to collapse on its own, and it is amazing that it hasn't yet, possibly because of support from China. When\if NK collapses or is conquered, even if with relatively little damage on the peninsula, absorbing the people in NK into the SK economy would realyl hurt it. so on the one hand, you want a peacful reunification, on the other, the south may not be able to afford it. On the one had, you want to stop NK from hostilities, on the other hand, you can't use military force to do that because they can severely damage the south, even when most of their forces have been overcome.

The US can't very well infiltrate NK and topple the regime like they did Iran in the 50's (and countless other places) because there aren't alot of Americans that would pass for a North Korean. SK does do some infiltrations, but I imagine the SK's are too healthy, too tall, don't speak the right dialect, and have no history so that would raise suspicions in NK. Plus there are no resistence movements in the north that I even heard of. Most people in the north don't have electricity so they can't even receive broadcasts from the south. You just can't get to them.

I don't know what should be done. Wait for collapse I guess.

[Olney Blue]

47. Very interesting. I have a colleague who is from South Korea-

he said that his country did not regard NK as an enemy- the common history bond
was too strong. He never felt afraid of NK, and had compassion for the people's suffering. I have
listened with interest to hear whether SK was kicking and screaming about the NK test today-
I haven't heard any, and I thought about the things my colleague said.

It's always interesting to talk to people who have direct experience with a situation- thank you for
your insight today about NK!

[ryanus]

48. The animosity between the people has really gone down

Especially with the younger generation. There have been quite a few family reunions of families that were split during the war, and there have been many cultural exchanges and joint activites in sports and stuff. In the south, I did sense that most people did want to reunify and that they did see the koreans in the north as their brothers and sisters. I talked to some old timers that were still pretty bitter against the north because they remember the war, and the assassination attempts. The younger generation, in the south at least, have a different perspective, and the south has always been way more open to reunify than the north. A lot of people in the south think that the strong US military presence has actually prevented a reunification, and there may be some truth to that. It's sad state of affairs. If you ever pick up a documentary on split families because of the Korean War, prepare to ball your eyes out.

[coalition_unwilling]

46. Funny how our own nuclear disamament (as called for in

the Nuclear Non-Profiferation Treaty) never gets mentioned as an option.

[endarkenment]

49. Not only that

but we have restarted our weapons development programs, an act which goes beyond a failure to continue to disarm (a tough violation to nail down) to a positive reversal of disarmament efforts, a clear violation of the treaty. Our ethical position here is a big zero. All we have is bluster and force.

[coalition_unwilling]

50. And since we've shot our wad in Iraq (figuratively speaking), I

would say we're pretty much down to hypocritical bluster alone.

[tk2kewl]

29. Surprise, surprise, surprise!

[dave502d]

32. South Korea won't let that happen. n/t

[Megahurtz]

36. Smaaarrrt!

[damntexdem]

42. Oh, that will surely work; just like shock and awe did.

And if so attacked, N. Korea would never use its conventional artillery to strike at Seoul, now would it?

[54anickel]

57. Sticky return key? Or do you have a cat?

[Vidar]

58. Losing two wars isn't enough. We're trying for four.

[Rex]

60. Uhm, bad idea if they are plants - unless you want to cause a regional

ecosystem to die from radiation. Hawks are so fucking stupid.

[mackdaddy]

62. Could NK or Iran not "Bomb the US Back"?

I have not doubt that the United States could decimate any county on earth with conventional or nuclear weapons.

But what I never see anyone consider is that many of these countries are well armed themselves, even now with demonstrated nuclear weapons. The smallest estimate for the North Korean test is of a bomb 50 times more powerful than what we dropped on Japan. They also have there own espionage networks.

Compare this with what was done to us by a guy working out of a cave directing 20 guys with box cutters.

You do not need an ICBM if there are thousands of un-inspected Container ships in every coastal city in this country. And if you have the resources of a nation, you don't need to hijack an airliner, you can just buy a cargo plane to crash into one of the un-protected nuclear waste storage ponds next to every nuke power plant in this country. Remember all those 911 commission recommendations this administration has Ignored?

We are NOT invulnerable from a counter attack, and this had better be factored into the big picture when we go starting these new wars. We push these admittedly crazy countries into a corner, and they may damn well fight back if they think that they have nothing to loose.

[Thor_MN]

63. I think you may have your comparison backwards... ~50X smaller.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...

Commander Cucoo-Banannas might well start another war over this, but it would be just another war crime of attacking a nation which poses absolutely no threat to us. NK or Iran could potentially conduct a terrorist type attack against the US, but it would be suicide for them to do it. Then again, Saddam may have sent one of his remote control model planes to Kim Jong...

[mackdaddy]

67. Never listen to talk show host who don't know their mega from kilo

You are right about the estimated size. An early report was that it was a half Megaton when it was actually half a Kiloton or less at the most recent estimates. Less than 1/20 the 12-15 Kiloton estimates of the Hiroshima bomb.

Even so, my main point still stands. We are NOT immune from a counter strike of some kind. Yes they would be wiped out afterward, but Kim-l-crazy might look at what happened to Saddam, and decide to go out swinging.

[killbotfactory]

64. Over South Korea's dead bodies!

Oh wait... nevermind.