STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 30 June

[ozymandius]

Friday June 30, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 936 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2015 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1715 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1676
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 29, 2006

Dow... 11,190.80 +217.24 (+1.98%)
Nasdaq... 2,174.38 +62.54 (+2.96%)
S&P 500... 1,272.87 +26.87 (+2.16%)
Gold future... 588.90 +7.90 (+1.34%)
30-Year Bond 5.25% -0.03 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.20% -0.05 (-0.86%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Mid-Cap and NYSE Composite Valuations

If you listen to the folks on business TV, stocks range from fairly valued to under-valued. The price to earnings ratio (P/E) they reference is typically that of the S&P 500 ($SPX) or Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA). Whether they use the trailing P/E or the forward P/E which is based on Wall Street analyst predictions, stocks appear to be at least reasonably valued if not cheap. More obscure are the trailing and forward valuations of the leading US indices. For this reason, tonight’s article discusses the basic valuation parameters of two leading US stock indices. These are the S&P mid-cap 400 index ($MID), and the almost 2,000 stocks comprising the New York Stock Exchange Composite ($NYA). As is apparent from the charts below, these indices have been two of the leading stock groups in the US over the last 5 years.

-cut-

Both the S&P mid-cap and NYSE composite indices trade at a high valuation. By averaging all stock components in each index with actual earnings result in trailing P/E’s of 41 for the mid-cap index and 34 for the NYSE composite. These are somewhat “rich” by most conventional standards of valuation. However these rich valuations include stocks in each index with actual earnings averaged, including those with triple-digit P/E’s. (Those stocks with negative earnings were not included in either average.) If the stocks in each index with triple digit P/E’s are also removed from the averages, the trailing P/E’s drop considerably to a more reasonable 24 and 21, respectively. Although not as “rich” as when stocks with triple-digit P/E’s are included, these valuations are also not particularly cheap. It’s when the forward P/E’s are examined that these indices appear to be more reasonable. The forward P/E’s (based on Wall Street analyst predictions), are 17 and 15, respectively. However, note that these forward valuations correspond to Wall Street-predicted earnings growth rates of a whopping 29 percent for each index. (The projected earnings growth is even greater when stocks with triple-digit trailing P/E’s are included in the averages.) Considering that corporate earnings are already at their historical highs, 29% year-over-year growth rates seem somewhat optimistic.

-cut-

Today’s Market

The market rallied strongly with all major indices up significantly led by many of the momentum favorites. The market liked whatever Mr. Bernanke said. Several indices were up over 3% including the Dow Transportation index. It is notable that short interest was climbing over the last few weeks and therefore making a favorable environment for a short squeeze. It is also relevant that today’s action probably qualifies as an Investors Business Daily “follow-through” day. Check for yourself. When enough folks follow a technical method, the method often becomes the market, and that is why the short term prognosis is now bullish for the major market indices. If this prognosis becomes fact, then it will provide another shot of adrenalin to the US consumer for digging his financial hole still deeper.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[still_one]

31. yesterday smelled like end of the quarter window dressing

the fundamentals have NOT changed.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Personal Income May
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Personal Spending May
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.6%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun
Briefing Forecast 82.4
Market Expects 82.5
Prior 82.4

10:00 AM Chicago PMI Jun
Briefing Forecast 59.0
Market Expects 59.0
Prior 61.5

[54anickel]

34. U.S. May Personal Spending Rises 0.4%; Core Prices Up 0.2%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aS9nSOzwqgO0&refer=home

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.4 percent, the smallest increase in three months, and inflation held above the Federal Reserve's preferred range.

The rise in spending follows a 0.7 percent April gain, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Over the last three months, the increase in the department's measure of inflation that's favored by the Fed matched the biggest in a decade.

Policy makers yesterday raised the benchmark interest rate a 17th straight time and said that ``some inflation risks remain'' even as economic growth appears to be moderating. The rise in the measure of core inflation, which excludes food and energy, may keep pressure on the Fed to extend their two-year run of rate increases.

The Fed is ``going to have to put more weight on the inflation concerns at least over the next month or two,'' Scott Anderson, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said before the report. ``There is scope for further rate hikes without panicking about growth.''

The report also showed incomes rose 0.4 percent, more than expected, after a 0.7 percent increase that was larger than the government reported last month. The May rise reflected a jump in proprietors' income, while wages were unchanged from a month earlier.

snip>

The savings rate fell to minus 1.7 percent, from minus 1.6 percent in April. A negative rate suggests consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending.

snip>

Part of the reason the economy will not buckle as spending slows is that consumer confidence is stabilizing as the price of gasoline plateaus, economists said. The Conference Board's confidence index rose to 105.7 in June from May's three-month low of 104.7, the New York research group said this week. :eyes: Just what are these confident consumers smokin' these days? Maybe it's something in the water?

more...

[54anickel]

36. U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Rose to 84.9 in June

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajFfgHs_1Ox0&refer=us

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Americans were more confident in June for the first time in three months as a decline in gasoline prices left them more to spend on other goods, a survey showed.

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment increased to 84.9 from 79.1 in May. The measure has averaged 88.1 since monthly data was first compiled in 1978.

The gain in confidence may help temper a decline in consumer spending that's forecast to curb the nation's economic expansion. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for a 17th straight time yesterday, saying an apparent moderation in economic growth hasn't ended the risk of inflation.

``Confidence numbers have improved somewhat and so have spending numbers, based on anecdotal evidence from retailers,'' Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the report. ``We are seeing some improvement in all the confidence measures, most likely reflecting stabilization of gasoline prices.''

[54anickel]

40. Treasurys flat as traders digest Chicago PMI

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF4870CCB%2DEA63%2D4E22%2D8E6C%2DC8C11225A65A%7D&dist=newsfinder&siteid=google

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys were little changed Friday, after the release of Chicago PMI, with business activity weaker than expected but inflation above forecasts. The index fell to 56.5 in June, versus expectations of 59.4. Inflation pressures accelerated with the prices-paid index rising to 89.0% from 76.9% in May. Separately, U.S. consumer sentiment improved to 84.9 from 82.4 in early June and 79.1 in May, according to media reports of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting the index to be steady. The 10-year was last up 1/32 at 99 15/32, yielding 5.193%, unchanged from where it was before the data.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices settle above $73 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures rose for a fourth day Friday amid concerns about shrinking gasoline stocks ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday weekend, when American drivers hit the road.

-cut-

"Earlier in the week, the $73 mark has always been considered the resistance level," said Victor Shum, energy analyst at Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Now, we've gone beyond that."

-cut-

Worries about a supply crunch ahead of the July Fourth holiday grew after the U.S. government released a report Wednesday showing gasoline stocks shrank last week for the first time in more than two months.

Gasoline futures slipped a cent in Asian trading to $2.280 a gallon. U.S. demand for gasoline continues to rise in spite of soaring pump prices. Over the past four weeks, daily gasoline demand was up 0.9 percent from a year ago at 9.4 million barrels a day. The average retail price of regular gasoline nationwide is $2.87 a gallon (3.8 liters).

more

[ozymandius]

4. Oil spill in La. leaves ships stranded

LAKE CHARLES, La. - Ships have been stranded, seafood sources threatened and the nation's oil reserve tapped as the result of 47,000 barrels of oil spilling into a southwestern Louisiana shipping channel, forcing its closure.

"For this area, it's a major spill. They haven't had anything like this in 20 years," Chief Warrant Officer Adam Wine of the U.S. Coast Guard said Thursday.

The June 19 spill at a Citgo Petroleum Corp. refinery in Lake Charles forced the closure of the Calcasieu Ship Channel, a key lane for transporting petroleum in and out of the region's four refineries. About 11 miles of the channel remained closed Thursday. The entire 40 miles to the Gulf of Mexico had been closed.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Nigerian oil dispute flares into full-scale revolt

KEGBARA-DERE, Nigeria (Reuters) - Crude oil seeping from a gnarled steel wellhead forms a lake the size of a soccer field near the Nigerian village of Kegbara-Dere, but these oil fields have not exported a drop in 13 years.

The Ogoni tribe kicked Royal Dutch Shell out of this part of the Niger Delta in 1993 protesting that they had received nothing in return for four decades of oil production. Today, the same grievances are fueling a revolt across the entire oil heartland of Africa's largest producer.

-cut-

Oil is the mainstay of the Nigerian economy, but has done little for the rural communities of Nigeria's far south where it is extracted.

more

[Ghost Dog]

18. Russia to showcase convertible rouble at G8 summit

MOSCOW, June 29 (Reuters) - Russia lifts remaining restrictions on currency movements this weekend, demonstrating the strength of its oil-driven economy ahead of the G8 St Petersburg July summit.

With its reserves swelling from petrodollar inflows, strong current account surplus and booming economy, Russia is ready to expose its currency to speculative capital inflows.

"We are fully ready for it," central bank deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told reporters on Thursday.

<snip>

Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, economist at Troika Dialog brokerage, said Russia needed to boost demand for its currency, possibly by denominating some of its vast exports of natural resources in roubles.

Putin last month called on the government to speed up work to launch trading of Russian oil, refined products and commodities on local bourses in roubles.

/more...

[Buttercup McToots]

21. Good Morning

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

“With November 7th approaching and the choice being bull equities over bear dollar, the dollar loses.”
-Jim Sinclair

I do these charts for you, not for fun, but for your learning.

You should print the charts out because they are your guides to action.

In a sense I have done your homework for you.
Review the simple lessons on Trend Lines, Fibonacci, MACD, Stochastic and Williams %R.

The top advisor is your partner, the market.

I keep them simple because in complex times simplicity is the only answer.

Today’s action in the Big Three is really “Bad News Bears.”

You can see a set up and a murderously bearish head and shoulders formation in the dollar, with a neck line of no return. Meanwhile the “un-dollar,” the euro, has a dynamic potentially bullish reverse head and shoulders formation accompanied by a significant bullish triangular formation.

All of the above adds up to a potentially volatile upside of unprecedented proportions. Gold, the euro and the dollar could become the Las Vegas of all time. The ups and the down will light your hair. I once had a Shelby 429 Cobra which was 1900 pounds and over 500 HP. Flooring the accelerator and popping out the clutch was what I thought was a thrill ride. It will be a kitty car compared to gold both on the UP and DOWN.

[Ghost Dog]

23. "the choice being bull equities over bear dollar, the dollar loses"

Good morning and thanks for the info! Just the way I'm now thinking. But: do you have a link to this please?

[Buttercup McToots]

25. I'm still sleepy...sorry

http://www.jsmineset.com/

[Ghost Dog]

28. No problem, McToots!

Me I'm heading out to lunch about now as the US begins to wake up :wink:

[Ghost Dog]

22. India, Russia to Unveil New Oil, Gas Projects

India and Russia are set to foster oil and gas cooperation and will soon announce new projects in this sphere, the Indian government said on Wednesday, June 28. The announcement was made after a meeting between Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov and Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Shri Murli Deora. The two officials met in New Delhi.

“India and Russia today emphasized the need for further enhancing cooperation in the oil and gas sector between the two countries,” the government statement said. “The two sides agreed to take forward the cordial and fruitful relations in general and in hydrocarbon sector in particular.”

<snip>

“India and Russia have a very good experience of working together in the Sakhalin-I project which went on stream last year,” Shri Deora said in a statement that was quoted by RIA Novosti. “The Indian companies are also keen to work with Russian companies both in India and Russia as well as in third countries.”

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

26. Australia promises ’reliable supply’ to energy-hungry China

SHENZHEN — Australian Prime Minister John Howard, keen to boost ties with an increasingly powerful neighbour, promised China yesterday that his country would be a reliable supplier of the energy China needs to fuel growth.

Speaking at the unveiling of China’s first receiving terminal for liquefied natural gas, which will get its supplies from Australia’s North West Shelf project under a $19bn deal, he drew an unspoken comparison with regional competitors for China’s investment.

“Australia is a stable, reliable, competitive supplier of energy. We deliver our commodities on time, we deliver them safely, we deliver them according to the prearranged, agreed price,” Howard told journalists on his ninth visit to China.

Beijing has been arguing with Indonesia over the cost of gas for a second terminal in Fujian province, because of steep rises in global markets since the two agreed on an initial price.

The maiden terminal in the southern city of Shenzhen — controlled by the state parent of listed CNOOC and indirectly invested in by BP — will supply the south of China and Hong Kong and is the first of about a dozen proposed or approved terminals along the coast.

China wants to more than double the use of gas by 2010, hoping to lessen reliance on oil from politically volatile areas, and on dirty-burning coal.

/more...

[ozymandius]

6. Commodity prices follow equities higher

Commodity prices rose firmly along with equity markets on Friday after the Federal Reserve hinted that it may pause further interest rate rises.

Gold rose to $600 a troy ounce for the first time in more than two weeks, representing a rise of about $8 from the late quote in New York on Thursday.

Copper prices rose two per cent to $7,420 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, its highest level in more than two weeks.

a bit more

[ozymandius]

7. Tokyo shares spurred by Wall Street gains

The Japanese stock market rose strongly on Thursday, boosted by particular strength in some export-focused sectors such as electrical machinery makers. Analysts suggested the rise was largely spurred by overnight gains on Wall Street.

The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.6 per cent to close at 15,121.15. The broader Topix also rose 1.3 per cent to 1,547.75.

The Nikkei was helped by strong performances among consumer electronics groups, which are heavily exposed to the US market. Sony (NYSE:SNE - news), which had under-performed earlier in the week, rose 2.7 per cent toY4,940. Canon (NYSE:CAJ - news), the digital camera and copier specialist, increased 2.6 per cent to Y5,480. Matsushita Electric Industrial (NYSE:MC - news), producer of Panasonic products and the world's biggest consumer electronics maker, gained 1.3 per cent to Y2,355.

more

[Ghost Dog]

8. Asia FX ready to renew rally as Fed focuses on growth

SINGAPORE, June 30 (Reuters) - A surprisingly dovish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve has sent financial markets a clear signal to snap up Asian currencies after more than a month of heavy selling.

As uncertainty over the U.S. rate outlook clears, focus is expected to return to a wide U.S. current-account deficit, potential for further Chinese yuan strength and favourable growth prospects for Asian economies.

That, analysts say, should mean regional currencies, battered since mid-May on expectations for more U.S. monetary tightening and rising risk aversion, renew a push higher versus the dollar.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

10. Japanese Stocks Rise; Dollar Down vs. Yen

ed: these are the closing numbers.

Japanese stocks rallied Friday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it may be close to ending its campaign to raise interest rates. Technology, autos, banks and metals led the way.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index gained 384.03 points, or 2.54 percent, to 15,505.18 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. On Thursday, the index rose 1.58 percent.

<snip>

Gainers included Advantest Corp., which climbed 2.82 percent to 11,660 yen ($101.39) and Canon Inc., which posted a 2.37 percent to 5,610 yen ($48.78). Toyota Motor Corp. surged 4.18 percent to 5,990 yen ($52.09).

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. added 6.19 percent to 1,492 yen ($12.97) and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. rose 1.79 percent to 969,000 yen ($8,426.09). Internet services company Softbank Corp. rose 2.60 percent to 2,565 yen ($22.30).

The broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the market's first section, added 39.21 points, or 2.53 percent, to 1,586.96 points. First-section volume rose to 1.651 billion shares, from Thursday's 1.429 billion shares. Advancers beat decliners 1,443 to 187, with 65 issues unchanged.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

14. JGBs flat as rising stocks chip away early gains

TOKYO, June 30 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond (JGB) prices ended almost flat on Friday, with the benchmark futures holding just above a six-year low after their slim gains in morning trade were erased by jump in Japanese share prices.

<snip>

The imminent Bank of Japan's tankan corporate sentiment survey on Monday kept most investors on the sidelines, limiting price moves. Traders were also wary of buying ahead of a 1.9 trillion yen auction of 10-year JGBs on Tuesday.

<snip>

The benchmark 10-year JGB yield <JP10YTN=JBTC> was up a half basis point at 1.920 percent.

"The Nikkei is up, and we have the tankan coming up, as well as the 10-year auction next week," so it's remains difficult for the market to move significantly," said Akihiko Inoue, market analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities.

He said the benchmark 10-year yield could be hemmed between 1.85-1.95 percent ahead of a BOJ policy meeting in the middle of next month.

The two-year yield <JP2YTN=JBTC> was unchanged at 0.840 percent -- a level which many analysts say has fully priced in a rate hike in July.

The five-year yield <JP5YTN=JBTC> was also flat at 1.410 percent. The 20-year yield <JP20YTN=JBTC> rose 1.0 basis point to 2.295 percent.

<snip>

Japanese data released earlier on Friday showed that nationwide core prices climbed 0.6 percent last month from the same period last year, matching market expectations and showing that the economy was well on its way to recovering from a near-decade bout of deflation.

<snip>

A strong reading in Monday's tankan poll could further cement anticipation the central bank could raise its overnight lending rate for the first time in six years at its July policy meeting.

<snip>

At the short end of the market, benchmark December euroyen futures price <0#JEY:> fell 1.0 basis point to 99.315, indicating a three-month interbank interest rate of 0.685 percent at that time, compared with around 0.35 percent at the moment.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

15. Japan's housing starts up 6.7% in May for 4th straight month of rise

(Kyodo) _ Housing starts rose 6.7 percent in May from the year before to 108,652 units for the fourth straight month of rise, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said Friday.

Starts on owner-occupied houses increased 4.5 percent to 33,060, marking the second straight monthly rise. Homes for rent jumped 13.1 percent to 44,744 units, climbing for the 14th month in a row.

Starts on homes for sale came to 30,164 units, almost unchanged from 30,161 units a year earlier.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

16. Japan's crude oil imports drop 6.7% in May, 1st fall in 4 months

(Kyodo) _ Japan's crude oil imports fell 6.7 percent in May from a year earlier to 123.35 million barrels for the first drop in four months, the Natural Resources and Energy Agency said Friday.

Imports from the Middle East accounted for 88.1 percent of the total, down 1.1 percentage points from the same month last year, the unit of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report.

Saudi Arabia was Japan's biggest oil supplier in May, with its exports to Japan rising 3.9 percent from a year before to 35.16 million barrels, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 29.37 million barrels, down 6.6 percent.

Iran ranked third with exports to Japan slipping 8.7 percent to 16.48 million barrels.

Qatar came fourth with shipments from that country falling 12.2 percent to 12.14 million barrels, followed by Kuwait with 10.94 million barrels, down 10.5 percent.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

12. HK shares rally 2.5 pct on improved rate outlook

HONG KONG, June 30 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks jumped on Friday to their highest level in six weeks, as a dovish statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve following its policy meeting ignited buying across the board.

<snip>

The benchmark Hang Seng index <.HSI> ended at 16,267.62.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

17. HSBC leaves HK prime rate unchanged at 8 pct

HONG KONG, June 30 (Reuters) - HSBC Holdings Plc. (0005.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday it will leave its best lending rate in Hong Kong unchanged at 8 percent, despite a 25 basis point increase in U.S. and domestic rates.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong's de facto central bank, earlier on Friday raised the base rate charged through its overnight discount window by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent.

<snip>

Hong Kong tends to track U.S. rate moves because of its currency peg to the U.S. dollar.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

27. Turkey raises rates again amid mounting fears of crisis

Published: 29 June 2006
Turkey raised interest rates yesterday for the third time this month in a renewed bid to bolster its currency and stem inflation amid mounting fears of financial crisis across emerging markets.

The central bank, under its Governor Durmus Yilmaz, raised the overnight lending rate by 2 percentage points to 22.25 per cent, meaning it has raised rates 6 percentage points this month.

The bank is struggling desperately to support the currency, which has fallen 20 per cent in the past eight weeks, and to tackle a surge in inflation to 10 per cent. Analysts fear that if it fails, it could turn into a full-blown currency crisis that could spread to countries as far flung as India and Poland.

Analysts warned an unexpectedly large rise in US interest rates or tough language from the Federal Reserve today could trigger a massive stock market sell-off. Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Insinger de Beaufort bank in London, said: "The Turkish economy looks like being a major casualty of the central banks' concerted withdrawal of liquidity from global markets."

<snip>

Graham Turner, at analysts GFC Economics, said: "Should the Fed deliver the wrong verdict for emerging markets, there is a risk investors will look beyond the obvious candidates - Slovakia and India are causing concern. Columbia, Mexico and Poland are suffering."

/more...

[54anickel]

44. Still passing around the currency crisis hot potato. Hmmm, is this

some sort of covert financial warfare?

Analysts warned an unexpectedly large rise in US interest rates or tough language from the Federal Reserve today could trigger a massive stock market sell-off. Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Insinger de Beaufort bank in London, said: "The Turkish economy looks like being a major casualty of the central banks' concerted withdrawal of liquidity from global markets."

snip>

"The end of the process would have to be something on the lines of what we saw in 1997 and 1998 when the International Monetary Fund had to go in and impose tough policies," he said. But he warned that would meet resistance from the newly empowered Islamist groups in the country. "The momentum is negative with no sign a of brake on Turkey's slide the implications for Mid-East stability are serious."

Curious, isn't it?

[Ghost Dog]

65. Quite a coincidence, yes...

...And Turkey's application to join the EU appears to be under renewed threat.

[ozymandius]

9. FTSE rallies as inflation fears ease

London equites enjoyed a broad-based rally in opening trade on Friday, as investors followed Wall Street indices higher after the Federal Reserve signalled an imminent pause in its rate tightening cycle while lifting US interst rates in line with expectations.

-cut-

Overnight in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made gains of almost 2 per cent to 11,190.80, the biggest one day fain for the index since 2003. The advance follwed the Federal Reserve's move to lift US interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent, in line with market expectations. Investors cheered a dovish accompanying statement from the central bank, triggering a flow of capital back into equities.

London traders caught the mood and followed the trend, sending mining and oil stocks to the forefront of the advance as the FTSE 100's twin heavyweight sectors made the most progress. Kazakhmys notched up gains of 4.5 per cent, Xstrata was 5 per cent higher at £20.88 and Vedanta Resources was 4.1 per cent stronger at £13.89. BP rose 1 per cent to 633p and Royal Dutch Shell was 0.8 per cent at £19.00.

more

[Ghost Dog]

20. European shares rise as Fed signals rate hike pause

Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:14 AM BST
LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - European stocks rose on Friday, tracking gains in U.S. and Asian shares, as markets saw the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement as signalling a pause or the end of its two-year campaign of raising interest rates.

But government bonds dipped after early gains as a change in forecast for European Central bank rates by JP Morgan heightened concerns over the pace of euro zone monetary rate tightening.

By 0855 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of 300 shares was 0.8 percent stronger at 1,305.9, its highest since June 5 and adding to Thursday's 1.8 percent rally.

The index is off 7 percent from its near 5-year high of 1,407.5 struck in May, but still up about 2 percent this year.

<snip>

Frankfurt's DAX index <.GDAXI> rose 1.1 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 index <.FTSE> gained 0.7 percent and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> was up 0.9 percent. Markets were below opening session highs.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

64. European bourses close higher led by energy stocks

European stocks made strong gains on Friday after the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate increase in the previous session was accompanied by a statement indicating a pause in the central bank’s tightening cycle. The advance was broad based, but energy stocks were among the leaders...

<snip>

By close of trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 1.4 per cent to 1,312.77, while Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax added 1.8 per cent to 5,683.31. In Paris, the CAC 40 gained 1.8 per cent to 4,965.96 and London’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.7 per cent to 5,833.4.

/more...

[ozymandius]

11. Bernanke's Timely Balm

The Fed chairman's indication of a willingness to moderate his tough stand against inflation reassured investors and sent stocks soaring

After weeks of talking past each other, Ben Bernanke and the markets finally managed to click—if only for a day. On June 29, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter-point for the 17th time in a row, to 5.25%, the Dow shot up 217 points and bond markets picked up.

-cut-

The rate hike was widely expected, but investors were applauding the Fed statement that accompanied the move. Despite tough inflation-fighting speeches over the last month by Bernanke and other Fed members, the central bank's written comment emphasized that economic growth is “moderating” and the public's inflation expectations “remain contained.”

Though still on guard against rising prices, the Fed says it will base its rate decision at the next August meeting on incoming data on both inflation and economic growth. A slowing economy would likely mean inflation will ease. “This leaves the door open for to stop” or pause, says Kevin H. Giddis, head of fixed-income trading at Morgan Keegan, a Memphis brokerage firm. Of course, a pause may be temporary, since the Fed could resume raising rates if inflation pressures start building again.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2006/pi20060630_314931.htm

[Ghost Dog]

19. (Europe) Shares up after Fed, ECB worries dent euro bonds

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bonds fell on Friday as investors focused on upcoming European Central Bank rate hike plans after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted interest rates there may have peaked, which pushed up shares and forced the dollar down.

<snip>

Some analysts covering the markets, however, felt the focus on the Fed was "a pantomime", obscuring the real drivers behind the market falls since May 11.

"The key factor behind the market fall was carry trade speculation centering around the yen which peaked in April," said Mark Tinker, a global equity strategist at brokers Execution in London.

"The obsession with the Fed was all smoke and mirrors. However, this presents an opportunity for end-of-quarter window dressing which will see some investors selling stock into the relief rally. But it does seem to have brought a volatile second quarter to a positive close."

However, focus soon shifted from the Fed to the ECB as euro zone government bonds fell on concerns over the prospects of an accelerated campaign of rate hikes overshadowed the Fed's more dovish statement.

Bund and interest rate futures initially rose on the back of overnight gains in Treasuries after markets interpreted the Fed's latest policy statement as signalling a pause in or end to U.S. rate hikes. But prices turned negative, with dealers citing a change in forecast for ECB rates by securities house JP Morgan, which said in a research note it expected a hike at next week's meeting and saw rates reaching 4 percent early next year.

Continued...

[54anickel]

39. Fed, Looking for Guidance in Data, May Find Numbers Fail to Justify Pause

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/fedwatch.html

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues at the central bank, who yesterday scaled back their bias toward more interest-rate increases, may find that new economic numbers still fail to justify a pause.

In raising the benchmark rate to 5.25 percent, the 17th straight increase, the Fed said an additional move ``may be needed'' only if new statistics warrant it. After the previous four meetings, the Fed said further increases were probably required anyway.

By the time policy makers gather again in August, they will have received three consumer-price reports, including one today, two reports on job growth and the first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product. Investors are still putting their money on a tightening at one of the next two meetings and see an increase at the next session as more likely than not.

``They feel they're largely on top of this inflation pickup,'' John Ryding, chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in New York and a former Fed economist, said of the central bank. ``I'm not so sure they are.''

snip>

``The Fed indicated it really wants to pause,'' said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust Securities in Chicago and a former Fed economist. ``The Fed is acknowledging a slowdown in growth; the Fed is acknowledging inflation has gone up, but saying we are probably at a peak here.''

[54anickel]

58. The Reality of Stagflation

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff062906.html

Now that the Fed has raised rates to 5.25%, and has left the door open for future increases, the overriding concern is that over-tightening will tip the economy into recession. However, given the state of our imbalanced economy, a recession is not only inevitable, but absolutely necessary, and will occur no matter what the Fed does. Furthermore, the coming recession will not come about because the Fed went too far, but because it did not go far enough.

The U.S. economy suffers from extreme economic imbalances that must be resolved. The longer they persist, the more difficult and painful their ultimate resolution will be. The imbalances result primarily from an excess of consumption and borrowing, and insufficient savings and production, and can only be resolved by less of the former and more of the latter. Recession is not the only way to reduce consumption, but since our economy is 70% consumption, any noticeable dip in consumption will lead to recession. The Fed should not prevent this from occurring any more than a clinician at a rehabilitation center should try to prevent a patient from suffering withdrawal by giving him with more heroin.

When the recession occurs it will not be the result of the recent run of Fed rate hikes, but the irresponsible manner in which it lowered them, and kept them low, in the first place. One common misperception is that given the absence of wage pressures, Bernanke is over-reacting to a non-existent inflation threat. However, this naïve view misses the point that rising wages, just like other prices (wages are the price paid for labor), do not cause inflation, but result from it. More importantly, wages usually are among the last prices to adjust upwards in response to inflation, which is one reason that inflation is so damaging. Waiting for an up tick in wages to confirm inflation is analogous to waiting for the caboose to evidence an oncoming train.

Given the current post-industrial state of the U.S. economy, the gap between wages and the cost of living will likely grow more than in prior inflationary periods, making the current experience that much more painful. Economists are also mistaken in their belief that a weakening economy will counteract inflationary pressures. This overlooks the fact that a weakening U.S. dollar will stimulate demand abroad at the same time it restrains it here at home. So even as Americans consume less, prices will continue to rise as they are forced to compete with wealthier foreigners for scarce consumer goods.

more...

[ozymandius]

13. Microsoft hits delay, layoffs, loss all in one day

In a series of sudden twists, Microsoft Corp. on Thursday delayed the upcoming version of its widely used Office programs, lost a key product evangelist to Google and cut 148 jobs from its United States sales force.

The separate developments added up to an unusually tumultuous day, even by Microsoft's standards -- and the Office news left some analysts asking if there might still be a big, Windows-related shoe waiting to drop.

-cut-

Company cuts jobs

In a separate development, Microsoft said Thursday that it's cutting a net total of 148 positions from its U.S. sales operations, in one of the company's larger job reductions on record.

The move, which involves eliminating some positions and creating new ones, is designed to align Microsoft's sales force "more closely with the needs of our enterprise customers and partners," the company said in a statement about the cuts.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/275953_msftbiz30.html

[Ghost Dog]

24. Dollar Drops Sharply Against Yen in Asia

The dollar dropped sharply against the yen in Asia Friday after Japanese data showed gains in consumer prices, fanning speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates as early as next month.

The dollar also fell to a three-week low against the euro on the dovish shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's tone in its statement that accompanied a quarter-point rate hike Thursday. The euro rose to $1.2722 from $1.2644.

The dollar was trading at 114.50 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 3 p.m. Friday, down 0.76 yen from late Thursday in New York.

/more...

[Buttercup McToots]

29. I'll be watching

http://news.goldseek.com/InsigniaConsultants/1151668140.php


Asian Metals Market Update for 30th June, 2006



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants



-- Posted Friday, 30 June 2006

GOLD
SILVER

COMEX GOLD AUGUST FUTURE -- $600.40
COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- $1076.50

EXPECTED TRADING RANGE

GOLD -- $589.10 -- $623.40
SILVER -- $1041.0 - $1222.00

COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE

COPPER SEPTEMBER -- $318.60 - $362.30
NYMEX CRUDE OIL AUGUST - $71.60 - $75.20

MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)

GOLD AUGUST FUTURE/10 GRAMS
SILVER AUGUST FUTURE/KG

Rs.8,920- Rs.9,360
Rs.16,700 - Rs.18,200

COPPER AUGUST FUTURE
CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE

Rs.316.60 - Rs.342.90
Rs.3,280 - Rs.3,550

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Gold and silver are higher after the Fed meeting and should once again start the bull run to test the may highs over the coming week. The fed they said that any further policy moves would be dependent upon the outlook for both inflation and economic growth. Its also acknowledged that higher rates were affecting growth. The US dollar slumped after the announcement. Crude oil prices are nearing $75.00 a barrel ahead of the US Independence Day vacations.



Where are we headed? All the incoming economic numbers will be scrutinized by the markets with signs of further slowdown in US economy. Inflation will rise despite any slowdown in US retail demand. The European central bank is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of percentage in August. It’s just the interest rates differential that is supporting the US dollar and if it narrows the slump in the US dollar will continue. Euro should target 1.30-1.32 is the July to September quarter. Crude oil prices will float over $70.00 and target $84.00 as the US hurricane season has begun. Iranian and other geopolitical risk are also not over which will support crude oil prices.



Gold and silver will try to near and break the May’s high of $730.00 and $1550 in July to September quarter. The bullish factors are a weaker US dollar, higher crude oil prices, higher physical demand as traders now start to build up their inventory, geopolitical risk. Shrinkage in global liquidity has now factored in by the markets so I do not consider it as a bearish factor. Only a sustained US dollar gain and interest rates hikes by the bank of Japan and Chinese central bank scan result in losses in gold and silver else June’s low in gold and silver could well be bottom for the rest of 2006.



It’s a long weekend and traders will rather go long than short. Event risk is over and the movement will be technical. Technical factors are portraying a bullish divergence.



GOLD

Gold targets $638.40 and $676.80 over the coming weeks. On the lower side $585.60 is well supported and as long as $585.60 holds on closing basis the downside is limited. A consolidated fall below $585360 will result in $579.20.



SILVER

Silver targets $1162 and $1246 over the coming weeks. On the lower side $1041 is the initial support with $1008 and $983 as the key short term support levels.

[Buttercup McToots]

30. double post...sorry

[54anickel]

32. Daily Dollar watch (chart's looking ugly)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 85.28 Change -0.38 (-0.44%)

Settle Time 15:10 Open 85.64

Previous Close 85.66 High 85.93

Low 85.25

The September Dollar was lower overnight and is trading below the 20- day moving average crossing at 85.52. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends this week’s decline, minor support crossing at 84.90 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening in early-day session trading.

The September Euro was higher overnight and is trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.203. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.203 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.

The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight and is challenging the 20-day moving average crossing at .8185. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8185 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September extends this month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this spring’s rally crossing at .8013 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8993. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8993 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below May’s low crossing at .8903 are needed to confirm a downside breakout below this spring’s trading range while opening the door for a larger-degree decline this summer. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight and is challenging the 20-day moving average crossing at .8816. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8816 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at .8600 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

46. Dollar woes seen continuing as Fed nears pause

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-06-30T012327Z_01_N29306220_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX-QUARTER.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar is rounding out its worst quarter in a year and a half on expectations the Fed is near the end of its cycle of interest-rate hikes, and few investors expect it to do any better in the next three months.

snip>

An end to Fed rate hikes would also signal to investors that the U.S. central bank sees the danger of recession as outweighing that of inflation. "When the Fed stops, the economy is tipping between growth and inflation," said David Durrant, chief strategist at Julius Baer Investment Management LLC in New York. "They won't want to tip the economy into recession as people don't invest in a place that's in recession."

snip>

POSITIVES FOR DOLLAR

There are, however, one or two potential positive surprises for the dollar that could provide support, analysts said.

Uproar over BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui's personal investments and calls for his resignation make the timing of Japanese rate hikes uncertain, and problems in emerging markets and the selling of the South African rand <ZAR=> and Turkish lira <TRY> could prompt a run to the safe haven of the dollar.

Also, if the U.S. economy continues to grow -- making inflation the bigger threat -- the Fed's key rate could go higher than anticipated, leaving the dollar's yield advantage not only intact but increasing.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Why the Arab countries continue to embrace the doomed dollar

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/woertz/woertz062906.html

The dollar is to decline in value, and an exclusive currency peg to it, as in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, is unwise. Given the accumulated US deficits and imbalances in international trade, this analysis is such a no-brainer that reiterations of it, including those by my humble self, have become a bit boring. Thus, at this stage let us ask the contrarian question: why has the dollar - although stumbling - still held its ground as a worldwide reserve currency instead of falling like a stone, and why have the Gulf countries so far paid only lip service to a necessary diversification of their currency holdings?

Total US debt, including that of households and public agencies, has been ballooning since the 1980s. It now amounts to $44 trillion - 350 percent higher than the US' GDP. To make matters worse, most of that money is spent on consumption, while investments and jobs are moving to China and elsewhere. Thus, with a dwindling economic base, this debt has effectively become too high to be repaid. Either there will be a default in payments or, more likely, the dollar will be devalued by inflationary policies to such an extent that it will not hurt to 'pay' it back. Currently, five dollars of additional debt buy only one dollar of GDP growth, the net asset position of the US has been increasingly negative since 1985, and the trade deficit has spiraled out of control. There is no doubt that the US dollar is financial radioactive waste, and it is not really clear why anybody would like to hold it or tie their fate to this doomed currency. And yet, the US, which needs to attract 80 percent of worldwide savings to finance its current account deficit, still manages to do so. Rather than worldwide investors being suicidal, this is a problem of size and a lack of alternatives. When you have a debt of one million, you have a problem, but when you have a debt of one billion, your bank has a problem - the latter does not want to write off its assets, and will continue to throw good money after bad, just to keep you afloat. That is the position of the US, which is well aware of it; John Conolly, treasury secretary in the Nixon Administration, put it bluntly in 1971 when the US decoupled the dollar from gold: "The dollar is our currency but their problem."

After the oil shock of the 1970s, the OPEC countries were awash with cash and were obvious candidates to balance the US deficit. Saudi Arabia, in particular, was courted by the US administration to buy US securities, and was given special tranches of treasury bills that did not go through the normal competitive auctioning process. In the 1980s, low oil prices made the current account surpluses of OPEC countries a thing of the past and Germany and Japan stepped into the gap, with the latter obtaining the special tranches that Saudi Arabia had received in the 1970s. With German reunification and Japan's recession, the US' financiers changed once again, as the role was partly taken up by China and other emerging markets. Recently, with the resurgence in oil prices, OPEC countries have come into the spotlight again, as they have current account surpluses of approximately 35 percent of the US deficit, while the corresponding figure for Asia is 49 percent.

Recently it has indeed been the oil-exporting countries that have kept the US dollar afloat, despite occasional announcements to the contrary. Between September 2005 and April 2006, the treasury holdings of the biggest holder, Japan, declined from $672 billion to $639 billion, while the number two, China, continued to increase its holdings from $306 billion to $323 billion, but did so reluctantly, amidst calls by senior officials for currency diversification. The oil-exporting countries and the UK, however, increased their holdings massively from $66 billion to $99 billion and from $96 billion to $167 billion respectively. The increase in UK holdings has been attributed largely to Arab buying out of London.

In light of these plain numbers, GCC announcements of currency diversification appear to be mere rhetoric. The 1 percent change in Kuwait's currency peg last month was rather modest, and other GCC countries, like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain, were quick to deny that they would follow suit in making changes to the status quo. The plan of the UAE central bank to increase its share of euros from a meager 2 percent to only 10 percent of overall currency reserves has been postponed repeatedly, and has not yet been implemented. As its announcement on the matter came shortly after the US refused to let Dubai Ports World handle the management of American ports in the wake of the P&O takeover, the announcement might have been no more than a warning of retribution. Qatar's position - holding up to 40 percent of currency reserves in euros and up to 90 percent in dollars - seems to have been the most courageous one so far, but in general, one can attest that the special relationship between the US and the Gulf countries is still intact. Most importantly, plans are still in place to peg the unified GCC currency to the US dollar in 2010. Even neighboring Iran, an outspoken advocate of diversifying in favor of the euro, and a country hardly known for its endorsement of US foreign policy, recently shunned Hugo Chavez's proposal at the OPEC summit in Caracas to price oil in euros, instead announcing that it would stick to pricing oil in dollars at its planned oil exchange on Kish island.

more...

[54anickel]

33. Blundering Through with Elegance

http://www.kitco.com/ind/wiegand/jun292006.html

“Experience is what allows us to repeat our mistakes, only with more finesse.”—Derwood Fincher

After observing legendary hyperinflation in Germany during the early 1920’s and the following global depression disasters of the 1930’s, Alan Greenspan devised economic management tools to smooth out the new bumps with his helpers at the Federal Reserve, United States Treasury, the Bank of Japan and some swift and very tricky fellows working in New York markets and through the Cayman Islands.

High wire money management reached its zenith when Uncle Al magically supported an imminent major cliff-hanging cave-in between 1999 and 2002 which should have replicated 1929-1932. The Green Man couldn’t save it all as our Nasdaq embarked upon certain and swift self destruction. Either they decided a proper scheme was not at hand to save the Nazz or they let it be a sacrificial lamb to deflate other market tires saving just the good stuff. Kind of like market triage. Perhaps it was intentional as the Wall Street gang plotted to erase an electronic competitor once and for all. Think so?

snip>

Much of the global market disturbance we see today with all its various aberrations was constructed by Mr. Greenspan and his merry band of helpers as they manipulated and finagled indicators breathing life into recent declining markets. Those decliners wanted to regress to the mean but Sir Alan would not permit it. Since no contraction was permitted they are transfixed; stretched and getting tighter. We think something has got to give. This time it’s the stock market, probably an event arriving this fall from a derivative accident or the newsworthy impression of one; real or imagined.

Our main point here is the all the market band stretching they have produced is way out there at incredible extremes in some key markets. These would be the over-printed U.S. Dollar and the enormity of paper debt both public and private. Others are derivatives and overly permissive mortgages, imposed upon inflated real estate appraisals. I guess the game is not over yet as I received a junk phone call today selling new mortgages with a sales pitch describing how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have actually loosened underwriting requirements even more to encourage newer debtors to jump on the liability pile. Unbelievable!

Snapbacks are Inevitable

When markets are stretched to extremes, they will break and implode. Or, be released slowly back to the center as mitigating factors reverse and heal the problem. Or, permanently stretched, they will incur fatigue, slowly relax and sink of their own volition. Our preference would be a slow move to the center and not self destruction. Common sense is saying this is not possible with Fannie’s newest fiction, and expanding those mortgage debt rubber bands stretching deeper into derivative land with a host of others like junk bonds.

more...

[Zynx]

35. Chicago PMI at 56.5 vs 59.4 Expected, Prices Soar

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7B6EB469%2DAA2C%2D4067%2D8F05%2DB3EE5DB40333%7D&&tool=1&siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

<Snip>
The prices paid index rose to 89.0% from 76.9% in May. This is the highest level since July 1988. The new orders index fell to 57.2% from 69.6%. The national business index will be released next Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.
<Snip>

[PATRICK]

41. Greenspan has become a tradition?

(Philosophical hot air warning)
This goes with the impression that the performance of Greenspan is something that has to be aped by his successor because it is the only option given whatever other priorities he(they?) has(have?). The danger of even the appearance of a one man show to sustain a mystically perpetual rising tide changes during a succession. I would think you would get imitation with other motives, a hidden change in a changing world depending on what is now merely a tradition, not the exact same dynamic. The game is not only stretched it seems to be adding more layers of deception and delusion over pressures that never vanish and always change. So something must happen and all the good area, the belief in speculative growth has already been
staked out.

This is almost vague enough for modern economic theory. Charlemagne's Empire. Weak successors added to split power equals total breakdown and chaos in short order and a long recovery and redistribution of sovereignty beset by wars and competition with the rest of disunited Europe. Greenspan was not the true Pope of power except in necessary perception, the confidence game that makes the pyramid apparently grow. It was subtle and not transferable except as another layer of illusion- that his successor would do exactly the same with exactly the same results with MORE guarantee of success since it is now a tradition. Not dealing with change guarantees breakup and disaster with segments of the tradition becoming smaller islands and eventual historic change happening as chaos within chaos. And if in that fall, the wistful legend of Empire remains now as a dream, less than a tradition, more the bad things will survive in its fantasy glow to poison future institutions. Roman Empire- Dark Ages- Holy Roman Empire(s)- nation states- fascist pan-European secular Empire- Globalization and PNAC. The course of mercantilism and capitalism might also be traced, reaching their apex seemingly in one man which is the crux of achievement and the chief sign of social decadence. The split grows madly worse and dysfunctional trying to achieve the imaginary apex that signaled trouble in the first place and sacrificing many things to each declining ripple of imitation and rebellion. Except the dominance of power and greed. And as those two things in concentrated hands fail, the attack on basic, stronger social reality increases so that each new manifestation of a power or money empire becomes crueler, less dependent on real civilization or real people, and shorter and more destructive in its span as its jaws widen further to encompass more of what it can never obtain.

[54anickel]

37. 10:25 numbers and blather catch up

Dow 11,169.99 -20.81 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,165.47 -8.91 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,270.98 -1.89 (-0.15%)
10-yr Bond 51.96 -0.04 (-0.08%)
30-yr Bond 52.54 +0.03 (+0.06%)
NYSE Volume 506,384,000
Nasdaq Volume 403,934,000

10:00 am : The major indices have backed off their opening highs, and now trade in mixed fashion with weakness in the information technology sector (-0.58%) acting as an influential drag. A drop in Apple Computer (AAPL 56.80, -2.17), which is getting clipped on concerns about its stock option grant practices, and relative weakness in the semiconductor group, are the key factors weighing on the sector. The Treasury market continues to do well amid the view the Fed is likely to take a rate hike breather at the August FOMC meeting. The yield curve has moved out of an inverted state, as the yield on the 2-year Treasury note (5.16%) is again below the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (5.19%). Separately, the revised consumer sentiment report from the Univ. of Michigan checked in at 84.9. That was above the consensus estimate of 82.5 and the prior reading of 82.4. It has had little effect on trading activity.DJ30 +11.61 NASDAQ -2.27 SP500 +0.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1026/1439/251 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 725/2008/214 mln

09:40 am : The market is building on Thursday's substantive gains, aided by a sense of relief that the core-PCE deflator wasn't worse than expected and a 9% surge in the stock of General Motors (GM 29.94, +2.50), which is rallying on the indication in a 13D filing from Tracinda Corp. that Renault and Nissan are receptive to a partnership with GM that would entail the foreign auto makers taking a 20% stake in the company. DJ30 +28.24 NASDAQ +5.89 SP500 +2.58

09:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. The positive bias following the income and spending report has held and has solidified expectations for a higher start. Lending further support is a recent CNBC report that Tracinda Corp., in a 13D filing, noted Renault and Nissan are receptive to having General Motors (GM) join a partnership alliance that would entail the foreign auto makers taking a 20% minority stake in GM.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Both income and spending for May were up 0.4% versus expectations for increases of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The core-PCE deflator, meanwhile, was up 0.2%, which was right in line with expectations. While that reading puts the year-over-year rate at 2.1%, which is above the Fed's forecasted range, it has been viewed favorably by the market since it wasn't worse than expected. The futures market has picked up a bit in the wake of the report and is now signaling a modestly higher start for stocks.

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. The stock market is currently slated to start the session on a flat to modestly negative note. That isn't entirely surprising given that there is often a tendency for some early selling activity after a day in which material gains were posted; moreover, there is a wait-and-see mentality ahead of this morning's personal income and spending report that will contain the closely-watched core-PCE deflator. The inflation gauge is expected to be up 0.2%, leaving the year-over-year rate at 2.1%, which is slightly above the Fed's forecasted inflation range of 1.75-2.00%.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.8.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

38. On This 4th Of July Weekend..Thanks To The Main Contributors At SMW

Some days there is just so much information, I don't often have time to read it all, or even comprehend it all. But it's wonderful that those who consistently provide the commentary, updates, links, put great effort into keeping everyone else so well informed.

So, have a great 4th Of July holiday, and we look forward to the 2nd half of 2006, and hope for the best.....or expect the worst. Thanks for all the hard work, and the intelligent insight which bless this board each Monday-Friday.

[54anickel]

45. On behalf of the "usual" Marketeers - Thank you OCD. We all try

our best to shine the light into the darkness. Wishing you a wonderful :patriot: holiday :patriot: as well. :hi:

[stop the bleeding]

47. No doubt - I would be lost without all of these people

sometimes I think they should charge a fee for this wonderful wealth of information.

Stay safe and keep the suffering of the world's people in your thoughts this weekend :)

[Roland99]

49. Be safe and have fun everyone!

[54anickel]

42. NYSE changes pricing for equity and options trading

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=421b199c-2f9b-4de5-ad0a-be8a73382798&siteid=google&dist=MorePulse

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- NYSE Group Inc. on Friday said it is changing its equity and options pricing schedule, eliminating variable fees in favor of fixed fees. The Big Board said transaction fees on NYSE-listed equities will be 0.00025 a share with a monthly cap of $750,000 for member firms. A 2% commission cap will be eliminated. In the NYSE's Arca options marketplace, contract fees will be reduced to 16 cents from 26 cents and other fees are being lowered across the board. The new fee schedules are effective Aug. 1.

[54anickel]

43. 11:50 - heading into the lunch hour

Dow 11,185.04 -5.76 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,170.87 -3.51 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,273.03 +0.16 (+0.01%)
10-yr Bond 51.77 -0.23 (-0.44%)
30-yr Bond 52.27 -0.24 (-0.46%)
NYSE Volume 964,794,000
Nasdaq Volume 715,138,000

11:30 am : A pretty directionless market at the moment as the indices continue to hug the flat line. All in all, that isn't bad given the scope of yesterday's gains. The lack of movement today, we suspect, can be attributed in part to participants being in vacation mode. As a reminder, there will be a rebalancing of the Russell indexes that is effective at today's close. Accordingly, while things appear dull right now in terms of trading activity, they could be fairly volatile in the last half hour of trading as fund managers make the necessary portfolio adjustments.DJ30 -6.00 NASDAQ -0.70 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1389/1392/643 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1142/1903/593 mln

11:00 am : The market is drifting a bit, holding fairly close to the unchanged mark but unable to make a concerted move higher due to a lack of strong sector sponsorship. One area that is doing particularly well today, though, is commodities, and specifically, the base metals. Gold prices are up $24.60, or 4.20%, to $613.50 an ounce as the yellow metal is catching a bid off the weakness in the dollar, which is a by-product of the burgeoning expectation that the Fed is going to refrain from raising rates in August and may be near the end of its tightening campaign.CRB 0.6% DJ30 -2.50 NASDAQ -4.52 SP500 +0.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1471/1238/537 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1348/1645/478 mln

10:35 am : The major indices have all slipped into negative territory with a relatively weak tech sector pulling down the broader market. To this point, there hasn't been any strong upside leadership as most groups are being stymied by the idea that there will be some profit taking following yesterday's huge gain and going into the weekend. Although the market is open for a half day on Monday, many participants have gone into vacation mode already and aren't actively engaged in today's market. At the top of the hour, the Chicago PMI report checked in with a reading of 56.5, which was below the consensus estimate of 59.0 and last month's reading of 61.5. A reading above 50 signals expansion, but the number that prompted a closer look was the prices paid component of the report, which was 89.0 - an 18-year high. DJ30 -13.69 NASDAQ -7.19 SP500 -0.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1525/1110/420 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1403/1532/364 mln

[54anickel]

48. Did Politics Quash an SEC Probe?

Chairman Christopher Cox ''did not lift a finger'' when told that a probe of a large hedge fund had been shelved by senior commission officials, according to a former SEC investigator.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/7131554/c_7131605?f=home_todayinfinance

Senior SEC officials stopped a hedge fund probe because one of the subjects of the investigation "had powerful political connections...at the highest level," according to former Securities and Exchange Commission investigator Gary Aguirre.

Testifying on Wednesday before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Aguirre said that when he questioned the commission's top enforcement officials about the propriety of halting the probe, "they fired me," and when he told Chairman Christopher Cox about those events, "he did not lift a finger."

SEC spokesman John Nester said he could not comment specifically on SEC investigations, but said, "Any suggestion that preferential treatment was sought or given in an investigation for political reasons is absolutely without merit."

snip>

The SEC's Nester disputes Aguirre's accusation that his letter to Cox never got a response, noting that the letter was referred to the Inspector General's office, as is standard SEC policy. In its latest report to Congress, the Inspector General's office noted that it had "investigated allegations that Commission supervisors had provided favorable treatment to an individual because of his political connections," an apparent reference to Aguirre's charges. The Inspector General's office said its investigation "failed to substantiate the allegations."

Aguirre testified that the investigation had found that the hedge fund had traded in two companies just before a cash tender offer of one company for the other was announced at a 50 percent premium over the last trading price. The hedge fund profited by $18 million in 30 days, he also recounted.

On Wednesday, the Times reported that a Morgan Stanley representative said that no evidence of wrongdoing by Mack has yet emerged and that the SEC had never contacted him. A Pequot spokesperson told the newspaper that its trades were all proper and not based on inside information. :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

50. House Democrats introduce hedge fund bill

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/29/AR2006062901742.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Top Democrats on the U.S. House Financial Services Committee on Thursday unveiled a bill to reverse a recent court ruling that blocked efforts by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to force most U.S. hedge fund advisers to register with the agency.

The legislation, called the "Securities and Exchange Commission Authority Restoration Act of 2006," was introduced by Massachusetts Reps. Barney Frank and Mike Capuano, along with Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania.

snip>

Last Friday a U.S. appeals court set back government efforts to force advisers of the loosely regulated investment pools to give basic information about their businesses.

The $1.3 trillion hedge fund industry has been in the spotlight during congressional hearings on matters such as allegations of illegal insider trading and questions about the independence of research analysts hired by hedge funds.

A Senate committee on Wednesday heard testimony by a fired SEC enforcement attorney who said the agency caved in to political pressure and blocked an investigation when evidence suggested a prominent Wall Street executive tipped off a hedge fund about a pending merger.

Bruce McGuire, president of the Connecticut Hedge Fund Association, said his group favors self-regulation. But he said it is better to have some national regulation through the SEC than individual state regulation, which could happen if Washington does not act.

"The worst thing that could happen is that it is left up to the states," said McGuire, whose group operates in a state with at least 200 hedge fund firms with some $150 billion under management. "But the industry should come up with a solution to help investor confidence."

more...

I hate being so cynical, but you don't suppose they are having Dems promote this "feel good, confidence building" legislation because they are currently viewed as "less corrupt"?

[54anickel]

51. Hedge fund chief faces new charges

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/0629bizhedgescam.html

Former hedge fund manager Kirk Wright's considerable legal woes worsened on Wednesday. A federal grand jury returned an indictment that tacked on 24 counts of mail and securities fraud to a month-old single count of mail fraud.

The U.S. attorney's office maintains that Wright, a Mariettan who ran the International Management Associates investment firm, mailed false asset statements on 21 occasions to eight clients. Prosecutors also charge he used fraudulent information to induce three clients to invest.

The indictment claims that Wright displayed to some investors copies of Ameritrade statements showing that IMA and an affiliate company had more than $150 million in assets, more than 100 times the true value of the accounts. Further, the indictment states, Wright lied to investors, saying their funds would be devoted to marketable securities and cash whereas a substantial amount went to pay off other investors who sought withdrawals.

snip>

In addition to the federal criminal counts, Wright and IMA have been sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as by several investors.

Other lawsuits have spun off, including one by seven former pro football players who targeted the NFL and its Players Association for listing IMA on a Web site of recommended investment firms. IMA has been shut down, and many of Wright's assets are being auctioned off next month.

more...

[54anickel]

52. HOME DEPOT BOARD

http://www.nypost.com/business/home_depot_board_business_suzanne_kapner.htm

June 30, 2006 -- Major Home Depot investors - already fuming at the huge payday for chief Bob Nardelli - yesterday called for the ouster of influential board member Ken Langone and demanded documents explaining why the retail giant's board skipped out on the annual shareholders' meeting.

The American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees Pension Plan sent a letter to Home Depot seeking to make public all records about the board's decision not to attend the firm's May 25 annual meeting. Shareholders wanted to question directors about their approval of $245 million in compensation over five years for CEO Nardelli, even as the company's share price has lagged rivals.

Separately, in a letter to Home Depot director Bonnie Hill, the AFL-CIO urged the company to recoup any gains from mis-priced option grants to executives and pushed for the ouster of Langone for his role in the matter.

Langone, who is also being sued by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for his role in awarding ousted New York Stock Exchange boss Dick Grasso a $190 million pay deal, has developed a reputation for serving on boards that richly compensate CEOs.

An internal review by Home Depot turned up five cases of options backdating. In three of those instances, the market price of the stock on the award date exceeded the exercise price.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Labor funds assail Home Depot

One still miffed about annual meeting, another seeks Langone's ouster

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/0629bizdepot.html

snip>

Home Depot spokesman David Sandor told the Associated Press that the company has received the letter "and would be pleased to meet with AFSCME to discuss their concerns."

Asked if the company would release the documents being sought, Sandor responded, "That's the extent of my statement."

The company came under criticism from some shareholders and commentators after the board's no-show. Only board chairman Bob Nardelli, also Home Depot's chief executive, attended the meeting. He gave no speech and offered very limited responses to questions or comments.

Some critics, including the employee union, said the board's absence and truncated meeting was aimed at avoiding lengthy criticism or discussion of Nardelli's $29 million-plus pay package for 2005, a year in which the value of Depot stock fell despite revenue and profit growth.

After criticism of the way it handled this year's board meeting, Home Depot said the board will attend future meetings.

In the stock options issue, another union, the AFL-CIO, said in a letter to Home Depot's board that Langone's resignation should be sought because he served on the board's stock option committee during the period of improperly granted options. The labor group also said the company should take steps to recoup any gains from stock options that were improperly granted.

"Granting stock options on terms that violate the provisions of a shareholder-approved plan is a clear breach of fiduciary duty," the AFL-CIO said.

more...

[54anickel]

53. Corporate pension funds snub derivatives (time for re-edumacation)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9bea401c-06c1-11db-81d7-0000779e2340.html

Very few corporate pension funds in the UK are using derivatives to hedge investment risks in spite of the increased focus on liability management in recent years, according to a new survey.

Interest-rate and inflation derivatives were being used by just 6 per cent and 4 per cent respectively of FTSE 350 companies’ pension schemes, while none was using derivatives to hedge against credit risk, says the report from Mercer Human Resource Consulting, which conducted the survey with the Association of Corporate Treasurers.

Liability-driven investment strategies have become popular in recent years as pension schemes face up to the problems of an ageing workforce and longer life expectancy. Derivatives markets are booming and credit derivatives in particular have experienced explosive growth in recent years.

Tim Keogh, worldwide partner at Mercer, said one reason derivatives use was limited was down to the need for education.

more...

[WhiteTara]

56. does this mean that we will be the only ones to drown

in FTDs?

[54anickel]

55. Ford bails out on hybrid promise

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060629/AUTO01/606290380/1148

Ford Motor Co. Chairman and CEO Bill Ford Jr. is backing away from his much-publicized commitment to produce 250,000 hybrid vehicles a year by the end of the decade, saying the company intends to pursue a broader environmental strategy that focuses more on other alternative-fuel vehicles.

With timing perhaps intended to blunt criticism of the move, Bill Ford announced the strategic shift in an e-mail to employees Wednesday, the same day he and the CEOs of General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group sent a letter to Congress promising to double their annual production of alternative-fuel vehicles to 2 million by 2010.

Critics decried the back-pedaling on hybrids as another broken promise by the automaker to build more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Bill Ford's hybrid pledge, made last September, was the centerpiece of a national advertising campaign touting the company as an environmental and innovation leader.

"What I didn't foresee at the time was how rapidly other technologies would evolve," Bill Ford wrote in the e-mail, obtained by The Detroit News. "Now, I am convinced that the objective we had set earlier to build capacity for 250,000 hybrids at the end of the decade is too narrow to achieve our larger goals of substantially improving fuel economy and CO2 performance."

more...

[Gregorian]

60. They are followers.

Little old me saw this coming. In 1970 my dad got a Subaru. This thing was crackerjack. Motorcycles today have more horsepower. And it was assembled from bits and pieces. Total junk. But we saw this coming. We had the mentality that saw global warming, oil wars, and the crash to get technology to keep up with population (ie, demand), in order to sustain the nonreversing modern societies. I saw it, and I was 16. Ford is so fucking lazy, they know that had they jumped on the bandwagon, technology would have followed. But just like we didn't adopt the metric system because America is so lame, we also decided not to tackle the projects that would eventually be demanded. They knew we couldn't sustain V8's forever. So now it's a double whammy- we let the Asian automakers sprint far far ahead, while we wallow in our laziness, and eventually end up with...nothing.

I honestly believe that at this point in time America is lost. Forever. God rest your pathetic and lazy ass soul.

[54anickel]

62. Kerkorian to GM: Join Renault-Nissan

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/article_1176898.php/Kerkorian_to_GM_Join_Renault-Nissan

NEW YORK, NY, United States (UPI) -- One of General Motors Corp.`s top shareholders wants it to explore joining the Renault SA-Nissan Motor Co. alliance.

Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian said in a letter to GM`s board that the Franco-Japanese alliance, which is run by Carlos Ghosn, is receptive to making including GM, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Kerkorian, who owns 10 percent of GM, said the alliance has created 'tremendous engineering, manufacturing and marketing synergies, resulting in substantial benefits and cost savings to both Renault and Nissan.'

Joining the alliance would afford GM 'substantial synergies and cost savings and thereby greatly benefit the company and enhance shareholder value.'

bit more...

[54anickel]

59. 1:23 numbers and yada

Dow 11,184.64 -6.16 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,171.98 -2.40 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,272.72 -0.15 (-0.01%)
10-yr Bond 51.57 -0.43 (-0.83%)
30-yr Bond 52.05 -0.46 (-0.88%)
NYSE Volume 1,302,047,000
Nasdaq Volume 942,291,000

1:00 pm : The tight trading range persists as both buyers and sellers are lacking conviction. There is a bit more action in the commodity pits, though, as evidenced by the 1.1% gain in the CRB index. The base metals have led that gain, but crude oil futures have also played a part, trading up $0.53 at $74.05 per barrel. The move above $74 has been driven by the recognition that there should be strong demand for gasoline over the holiday weekend that, in turn, will keep demand for crude oil high. Trading of energy futures in New York closed at 1:00 pm ET today and will remain closed through July 4.DJ30 -8.09 NASDAQ -2.62 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1378/1504/882 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1161/2006/820 mln

12:30 pm : There isn't much to discuss in terms of the performance of the indices today. Volatility has been virtually non-existent as the market can best be characterized as drifting. On a comparative basis, the small- and mid-cap stocks are outperforming their large-cap counterparts today, but their gains aren't big at all. To wit, the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 Midcap Index are up 0.3%, respectively.DJ30 -8.40 NASDAQ -3.56 SP500 -0.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1402/1458/804 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1114/2014/748 mln

12:00 pm : After the biggest one-day rally in several years, the stock market appears to be cooling its jets today as the major indices haven't ventured too far from the unchanged mark since the start of trading. That's not because the market has lacked catalysts, but rather, it seems to be the end result of participants being in vacation-mode ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.

The market did in fact begin the day on an upbeat note as traders expressed relief that the core-PCE deflator of the personal income and spending report was in line with expectations. The closely-watched inflation gauge increased 0.2% in May, leaving the year-over-year change at 2.1%. Although that is above the Fed's forecasted range of 1.75-2.00%, it didn't cause much upset since (a) it wasn't worse than expected and (b) the market is still basking in yesterday's FOMC statement which hinted the Fed is inclined to take a rate hike breather at the August meeting.

Another catalyst for the early gains was the news that Tracinda Corp., in a 13D filing, indicated Renault and Nissan would be receptive to a partnership with General Motors (GM 28.79, +1.35) that would entail the foreign auto makers taking a 20% stake in GM. While GM has said it will take the matter under advisement, the market provided a strong nod of approval on the merits of the proposal by driving GM's stock up as much as 11%.

GM, like the rest of the market, has pulled back from its opening highs as buying interest has waned since the initial boost.

Looking at the 10 economic sectors, eight are currently sporting a gain, but the two that aren't - technology (-0.67%) and financial (-0.15%) - happen to be the two most influential sectors in the market. Consequently, their relative weakness has prevented the market from extending Thursday's gains.

The Treasury market, though, has continued to catch a bid and is lending a measure of support for stocks. The 10-year note is up six ticks, bringing its yield down to 5.17%. By and large, today's economic data, which include the income and spending report, the revision to the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, and the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, have been taken in stride and haven't been much of a swing factor for today's participants.DJ30 -1.04 NASDAQ -2.60 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1433/1392/736 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1252/1849/674 mln

[54anickel]

61. WTO trade talks in crisis amid recriminations

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/article_1176964.php/WTO%A0trade_talks_in_crisis_amid_recriminations__Roundup_

Geneva - Global trade talks on breaking down protectionist barriers appeared headed for collapse Friday as World Trade Organization (WTO) members remained split over slashing farm subsidies and reducing high import tariffs.

'If we stay on this course we risk a crash landing,' warned European Union trade chief while WTO director-general Pascal Lamy said the talks in Geneva were facing crisis.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim agreed with the pessimistic assessment, saying he could not see 'any real significant progress' over the last two days.

The focus is on the United States, which continues to refuse calls by the European Union and poor countries for massive cuts in costly US farm subsidies.

Instead, US officials in Geneva insisted they wanted more 'ambitious' reductions in EU farm import tariffs and similarly deep cuts in industrial tariffs and developing nations like Brazil and India.

As key WTO members exchanged recriminations and complaints, WTO chief Pascal Lamy said the drive to liberalize global trade launched five years ago in Doha, Qatar, was facing a crisis.

more...

[54anickel]

63. 2:32 - Calling it a rally, but heading into the "magical" hour

Dow 11,197.77 +6.97 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,175.00 +0.62 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,273.82 +0.95 (+0.07%)
10-yr Bond 51.45 -0.55 (-1.06%)
30-yr Bond 51.97 -0.54 (-1.03%)
NYSE Volume 1,595,104,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,140,256,000

2:30 pm : Given how things have played out today, what we've got going on right now could be labeled a rally. For those just joining us, that's a tongue-and-cheek way of saying the market has held to a very tight trading range since the opening bell that has seen the SnP 500 basically trade within a point on either side of the unchanged mark for most of the day. The recent perkiness is a function of the tech sector paring its losses and other winning groups pusing a smidge higher. Look for added volatility and a pickup in volume late in the session as fund managers make adjustments to account for today's Russell index rebalancing.DJ30 +10.01 NASDAQ +1.73 SP500 +1.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1302/1663/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1087/2138/1.07 bln

[54anickel]

66. 3:32 and red magic

Dow 11,190.72 -0.08 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,173.76 -0.62 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,273.21 +0.34 (+0.03%)
10-yr Bond 51.38 -0.62 (-1.19%)
30-yr Bond 51.86 -0.65 (-1.24%)
NYSE Volume 1,929,382,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,399,981,000

3:25 pm : If things are going to get interesting today, now is the time as the rebalancing of the Russell indexes is expected to lead to a pickup in trading volume in the last half hour of the session. As it stands now, the market continues to trudge along with the indices maintaining their position just north of the unchanged mark. As a reminder, the stock market is open Monday, but will close early at 1:00 pm ET and will remain closed through the Fourth of July holiday.DJ30 +13.05 NASDAQ +2.39 SP500 +1.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1230/1760/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1000/2279/1.28 bln

3:00 pm : The indices continue their upward drift with sellers running little interference. The gains, which can be called modest at best, can still be seen as a source of encouragement for the bulls given that the market has managed to build on yesterday's huge gains and hasn't sufferd any real selling pressure. The technology and financial sectors have pared their losses and are helping the recent uptick. Today's strongest sector is Health Care (+1.10%), which is garnering support from buying interest in the pharmaceutical, biotech, health care distributors, and health care supplies groups.DJ30 +18.81 NASDAQ +5.74 SP500 +2.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol 1264/1.23 bln1717 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1044/2195/1.18 bln

[stop the bleeding]

67. Have a good weekend everyone and

stay safe, and if you have a minute try to think/capture what our founding fathers had in mind when they got this Country started.:toast:

[Roland99]

68. Hard to remember given the current state of America

:(

[54anickel]

69. Strange, the chart is still at 3:59 and the DOW just keeps dropping.

Was at -27 when I first checked, decided it wasn't fork-sticking time so I waited. Each refresh shows the same time but a lower DOW. Guess some settling may occur. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

70. Fork-stickin' time (I think)

Dow 11,150.22 -40.58 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,172.09 -2.29 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,270.21 -2.66 (-0.21%)
10-yr Bond 51.38 -0.62 (-1.19%)
30-yr Bond 51.86 -0.65 (-1.24%)
NYSE Volume 3,000,376,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,447,674,000


Whoops, volume numbers still changing....I'll edit this when they really settle.
NYSE Volume 3,010,236,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,447,693,000


on edit at 3:22 - OK, this is strange - NYSE volumes were way up 3,041,845,000 now they are dropping back down. Still waiting for it to settle....

On second edit - let's try this again (must be thos nasty FTDs gumming up the volume count - it's still bouncing a bit)


Idices stay the same as above for the close:
NYSE Volume 3,047,966,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,581,166,000


4:20 pm : In a manner of speaking, the stock market closed the second quarter on a boring note as the major indices stuck to a very narrow trading range from the sound of the opening bell. The directionless market was a by-product of many participants going into vacation-mode shortly after a key inflation report at 08:30 ET provided an all-clear signal to go out and enjoy the weekend.

The report we are referring to is the core-PCE deflator, a component of the personal income and spending report. Its importance to the market is anchored in the understanding that it is a closely-watched inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. The report covered the month of May and showed a 0.2% increase in the deflator that was right in-line with the market's expectations. Although the monthly figure left the year-over-year change at 2.1% - the upper end of the Fed's forecasted inflation range - it was viewed with a sense of relief that it wasn't worse than expected.

That relief was evident in the futures market, which ticked up in its wake and set the stage for a positive start for stocks. Another supportive factor in the early-going was news that Renault and Nissan are interested in a partnership alliance with General Motors (GM 29.79, +2.35) that would entail the foreign auto makers taking a 20% stake in GM. The market clearly liked the implications of such a happening, but the only response from GM's board was that it will take the matter under advisement.

Beyond those two items, the market found little of interest. It all but ignored lower-tier economic releases that included the revision to the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index that saw its prices paid component hit an 18-year high.

A relatively weak showing from the technology sector (-0.91%), which was driven by declines in the semiconductor group and Apple Computer (APPL 57.27, -1.70), which got clipped on concerns about its stock option grant practices, weighd on the broader market throughout the session. A lackluster showing from the financial sector (-0.42%) also acted as an influential drag that prohibited the blue chip averages from extending Thursday's gains.

Friday's trade, however, wasn't devoid of winners. Commodities, led by gold (+$27.80 to $616.70/ounce) and other base metals, rose 1.20%. Meanwhile, the outperformance of small-cap and mid-cap issues limited today's losses. The Russell 2000 was the standout performer on the day, tacking on 1.40%. On a related note, today marked the annual rebalancing of the Russell indexes, which led to a pickup in volume late in the session and was the main force behind a late slide in the indices.

Separately, the Treasury market put together a stealth rally as an improved view of the inflation outlook, end of quarter activity, and safe-haven buying ahead of what will be a long weekend for many helped the benchmark 10-year note gain 13 ticks, bringing its yield down to 5.14%. That is roughly 10 basis points below where it was at Wednesday's close. The drop in long-term rates didn't do much to help the homebuilding stocks Friday, but overall, it is a supportive development for stocks.

As a reminder, the stock market will be open on Monday, but it will close at 1:00 pm ET in observance of the Fourth of July holiday. Trading will then resume on Wednesday, July 5.DJ30 -40.58 NASDAQ -2.29 SP500 -2.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1313/1733/2.56 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1048/2274/1.92 bln

3:25 pm : If things are going to get interesting today, now is the time as the rebalancing of the Russell indexes is expected to lead to a pickup in trading volume in the last half hour of the session. As it stands now, the market continues to trudge along with the indices maintaining their position just north of the unchanged mark. As a reminder, the stock market is open Monday, but will close early at 1:00 pm ET and will remain closed through the Fourth of July holiday.DJ30 +13.05 NASDAQ +2.39 SP500 +1.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1230/1760/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1000/2279/1.28 bln


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2278 (66%) 1826 (57%)
Declines 1028 (30%) 1234 (38%)
Unchanged 111 (3%) 114 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1765 (58%) 1255 (51%)
Down Vol* 1232 (40%) 1167 (47%)
Unch. Vol* 31 (1%) 25 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 119 132
New Lo's 80 58



Have a great weekend everyone :hi:

[54anickel]

71. Dow Finishes Down 41 at 11,150, Nasdaq Finishes Down 2 at 2,172 to Wrap Up

Dow Finishes Down 41 at 11,150, Nasdaq Finishes Down 2 at 2,172 to Wrap Up Turbulent 2nd Quarter

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060630/wall_street.html?.v=20

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks ended a turbulent second quarter with a moderate decline Friday as money managers, doing some last-minute adustments, locked in gains from Thursday's big rally.

Analysts attributed the selloff to end-of-quarter "window dressing" by managers preparing quarterly reports and the annual reconstitution of the Russell 3000 index, in which some stocks were added to the index while others were dropped.

"This was nothing attributed to market conditions," said Ryan Larson, senior equity trader at Voyageur Asset Management.

snip>

Friday marked the end of a difficult quarter for stocks. While on May 10 the Dow Jones industrials were just 75 points away from their all-time high close of 11,722.98, last reached in January, 2000, Wall Street abruptly reversed direction the next day, beginning weeks of losses as investors grew more anxious about the direction of interest rates. It wasn't until this week that stocks regained their footing.

snip>

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange was 1.89 billion, down from 1.49 billion Thursday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose by 10.21 points, or 1.43 percent, to 724.53.