Zogby: Cliffhanger In Tennessee Senate Race

[Mark E. Smith]

Democrat Ford in dead heat against GOP opponents, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The race for the U.S. Senate from Tennessee, seen as a key battle in the fight for control of Congress' upper chamber, is shaping up to be one of the tightest in the nation, a new Zogby International telephone survey shows.

The seat is open because of the pending retirement of Majority leader Bill Frist, who is contemplating a run for the White House in 2008. The Zogby poll was conducted via telephone with 502 likely voters statewide of June 12, 2006, and carries a margin error of +/-4.5 percentage points.

In prospective tests pitting Democrat Harold Ford Jr., a popular Democratic congressman, against three Republican rivals, Ford is running competitive races. Ford is dead even in a head-to-head race with former Congressman Ed Bryant, with each taking 42% of the vote in a potential match-up. Against former Congressman Van Hilleary, Ford trails by a narrow two-point margin, 43% to 41%. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker leads Ford by the largest margin, 46% to 42%.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1125

[displacedtexan]

1. The margin of error could be in Ford's favor.

We need a bigger sample.

[woosh]

2. Democrats dont win close races

No doubt this one will break for the GOP candidate.

[GodlessBiker]

3. Is that some sort of statistical rule?

[Roland99]

4. No, it's the Diebold rule

[bunkerbuster1]

5. Combined with a skillful voter-registration suppression

and dozens of other despicable, Fascistic measures designed to ensure their "Thousand Year Reich", aka the "Permanent Majority."

[skipos]

13. The VA gov race was close, VA has Diebold, and we still won

It probably bums out the Diebold Defeatists, but democrats do win elections.

[AndyTiedye]

8. The Media Invented Such a Rule To Explain Recent Elections

and the growing discripancies between them and all the polls,
including the formerly-extremely-accurate exit polls.

[Kolesar]

6. This is encouraging news! ... eom...

[jahyarain]

7. whole lotta people here like him

he talks like a younger John Edwards and many Tennesseans are being quite receptive to him. i have faith he can do it.

[november3rd]

9. Mehltman/Rove

Obviously, they watch the polls and now have a plan to roll out in Tennessee. What makes Republicans so successful in close elections is the RNC's ability to intervene so effectively in the registration and voting.

We know the drill:

1) They get the current Republican state government to pass anti-registration, anti-minority voter statutes;

2) They come up with caging lists to try to challenge the registrations of likely Democratic voters;

3) They scrub the Democratic voting lists of felons, real or otherwise;

4) Then they make sure the Democratic precincts get the worst and the least voting machines, assuring a limited vote count for Democratic candidates;

5) They allow Republican donor corporations that produce voting machines to stack the state with electronic and DRE voting machines that untraceably "flip" votes from Democratic to Republican candidates; and

6) They make sure the vote is talleyed by Republican politicos who throw out 900% more "spoiled" ballots from minority voters than from Caucasian and that obstruct open recounts if the laws require them.

Result: Republican mandate.

[NashVegas]

10. I Don't Think This Looks Good for Ford

Sorry to rain on the parade, but I think there needs to be a much larger margin in Ford's favor in order to take any hope out of a poll like this. Right now, I think the poll more likely reflects the divided thought on the Republican candidates.

Ford has three huge handicaps for this fall, and their names are Ophelia, John, and Public Opinion Manipulation.

[Blaq Dem]

12. If Alan Keyes was running ...

...like Barrak Obama, only then would Ford win with a land slide.

[NashVegas]

15. Well, Keyes Is Unlikeable, Yes

But I don't know if he was as vulnerable to the family corruption attacks that Ford is going to come into.

And when the "Fancy Ford" site gets trotted out again, I hope the party and the campaign won't be stupid enough to take shots at Frist this time, and will aim instead at Hileary or Corker. (Corker looks much easier to hit - what's his plastic surgery bill?)

[Zynx]

11. +/- 4.5% points is almost completely worthless, especially that tight.

[TheVirginian]

14. Zogby is dreaming

The GOP has a divided primary, the Dem field cleared out for Ford. After the September primary, when one (most likely, Corker) wins, the GOP will rally behind their nominee, and moderates will be in play. That's when Corker will take a ten point lead over Ford.

[pf99]

16. Disagree

This will be election decided by turnout.

Ford needs large turnout in West TN and low turnout in East TN.

Here in Greene County TN (East TN) Kerry got 7,635 and * got 16K. There were 4K more votes in 2004 than 2000 and most went to *.

So if we get 24K total voting here in 2006 we are in trouble, but in 2002 there were 16K votes cast in total. So if we can get that Kerry base, we have a good shot here in East TN (to keep it close).

Get large turnout in West TN. I think we can win.