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Poll: Edwards would lose N.C. to Bush; more favor White House run

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Khephra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 09:38 AM
Original message
Poll: Edwards would lose N.C. to Bush; more favor White House run
RALEIGH, N.C. --

U.S. Sen. John Edwards still couldn't win his home state in an election against President Bush, but more people are warming to the idea of Edwards' candidacy, according to a newspaper poll.

Bush would beat Edwards 54 percent to 40 percent in North Carolina if the general election were today, according to a telephone poll of 600 likely voters conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., for The News & Observer of Raleigh.

The 14-point gap is the smallest since The N&O started polling in January.

"For Edwards, it's important that the trend continues," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000. "In the end, if voters in North Carolina don't come around, he's got to ask himself why he's doing it."

more.................

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=...
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MattNC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
1. resentment
Just a lot of resentment for him to overcome since most around here feel he's never had NC at the top of his agenda. Being a democrat doesn't help either.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
2. trend is moving towards edwards
i think the polls done during times when most aren't even paying attention will most likely favor the incumbant. but as people start to get into the elections and hear the candidates, things begin to change.
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jos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
3. Senate results
At least he still has a lead in the race against Burr. The race I hope he ends up running.
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leesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
4. And the people of NC need to get their heads out of their asses
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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. LOL. They'll come around.
The Dems will take NC for the first time in a generation is Edwards is on the ticket.
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MattNC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. i take exception to that!
:)
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dad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-03 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. '
You tell me what state you hail from, and I'll be able tell you why those people need to pull their heads out of their asses.
I can already give you a list of ONE person from your state who needs to get a clue.
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tjdee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
6. This is the case for every Democrat running.
Wasn't there some obnoxious poll saying even KERRY would lose Mass. to Bush?

I don't know WHY they keep running these polls concerning Edwards. There's like one done every month or something. Unless nobody posts/sees similar polls about the other candidates...

In fact, these Edwards numbers are better than they were a few months ago. Plus, no shit he has a tougher time in NC. If he were from CT, I bet his numbers would be a lot higher.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
8. Good sign for Edwards because this trend is in the face
of very aggressive media and Republican attacks on Edwards on this issue. When Edwards was doing his first NH Town Meeting, the conservative press in NC (and even the NY Times) were running stories about how Edwards was screwing over the state Democrats by not declaring which race he was running. There was a very aggressive media campaign designed to get NC'ians made about the fact that he was running. In the face of that, Edwards starts polling better against Bush. That's good. That's a sign that Edwards can influence public opinion more effectively than Republicans and the press.
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Octafish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
9. Those polled need good information.
Aware of the facts, they'd change their minds PDQ regarding the Smirk. From the article:

EXCERPT...

The poll also found that Edwards' Democratic rivals would fare even worse in North Carolina against Bush.

Bush would beat U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri by 24 percentage points, U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut by 25 points, U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts by 28 points and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 32 points, the poll found.

North Carolina hasn't been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

CONTINUED...

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=...
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jamesinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. So no matter who wins the Dem nod should pic a strong VP
I still have the opinion that all the Dems currently running should be given very nice cabinet or a VP position. I still get a kick out of Al Sharpton as the Press Sect. Except for Lieberman, that is my bias towards the field, I think Lieberman should be left out of it and returned to CT. I can picture and I would support a Clark/Edwards ticket. I think putting Clark on your ticket will help in the south because they tend to the Republicans and Clark has the military experience behind him to pull the Republican leaning pro-military types. I know it is something tht they like to throw in our faces that Gore lost TN. Would that really matter if Bush lost the other 49?

But let knowbody forget that it is hard to pick the winner before the race even starts. We all know what a Gov. from a state like Arkansas can do to the polls when it is actually voting time.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Any Dem running who hasn't announced by now, is going to have
a hard time convincing people he or she is committed to the race.



I feel the window is rapidly closing on Clark's viability. He has had plenty of chances to state clearly that he really wants to be president. By waiting any longer, people will think he isn't committed fully.



Bobby Kennedy was able to jump in late given his name and the circumstances (Vietnam). I don't know if Clark has luxury of waiting until last minute when his name recognition is already so low.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Dean isn't going to do well in South and that's a good reason
not to vote for him in the primary.



If the Dems don't run someone who's competitive in the south, the Republicans will be able to commit all their resources in the few states in which Democrats are competitive. What the Republicans were able to do to Gore, they'll be able to do twice as well since they'll have twice the money Dems have and they'll be able to concentrate it, while the Dems spend a ton of money just trying to be competitive in places they'll have no chance of winning in the south.
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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 05:10 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. with the exceptionof Lieberman and Edwards
many voters in NC don't know the other candidates.
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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 05:13 PM
Response to Original message
14. the real bad news is the Senate numbers 47-39 for Edwards
that is too close for comfort and indicates that if Edwards does decide to run for re-election to the senate it will not be a cake walk. The gap between Bush and Edwards is closing which is good (54-40) but that could be indicative of Bush's softening numbers nationally as many recent polls have indicated.
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GBD4 Donating Member (597 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-19-03 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
15. Only 600
Big deal! I am not convinced that 600 voters represent the state of North Carolina just as nationwide polls that use just 750 voters. It is too tough to know how any candidate will fare at this point, especially if we are only asking a mere 600 voters. Random polling of just 600 voters could sometimes favor Edwards if say Raleigh happens to be the home of many of those polled and the next time the voters could be concentrated in Western NC and then Edwards's numbers look terrible. So no one should be excited or disappointed with such a poll as this one.
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0rganism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-03 05:33 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. 600 is enough, provided a true random sample was used
Edited on Sun Jul-20-03 05:36 AM by 0rganism
A 600-item sample will give an answer with a "95% confidence interval" to within 5%, regardless of the size of the general population. 1/sqrt(N) is the basic approximation for the width of the "95% confidence interval". sqrt(600) is about 24.5, 1/24.5 = 0.04, which is a +/- 4% "95% confidence interval".

The question one is asking is, "to what degree are these results attributable to chance?" A 95% level of certainty that the result is representative is typically accepted as "good enough". Another way of looking at it is, "what are the chances that 600 random samples DON'T represent the group as a whole?"

Sure, if you sampled 100000 voters, you'd get an interval with a width of +/- 0.3%, but blammo! you've just spent a whole lot more time and money doing the survey. The only time we see those kinds of numbers (well, we used to prior to Bush v. Gore, anyway) is in exit polling for national elections. Bush's voting lead over everyone is currently outside the need for any such surveys; your interpretation of what the data means is exactly that: your interpretation. Maybe 10% of the people who say they'll vote Bush are just complacent lazy fucks who won't vote anyway, or maybe not.

There's been a lot of anti-poll angst over the last two years that boils down to shooting the messenger, IMHO. It'd be more productive to ask why the hell we're such a bunch of propagandized idiots than lash out at the numbers themselves. If you think the 2002 elections were legal and above-board, then please accept the fact that Bush is a popular dictator whose policies greatly appeal to tens of millions of their victims, and move on from there.
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haymaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-03 05:39 AM
Response to Original message
18. Oh darn, NC
will not go Dem. Well they will not stop picking their noses either.

What to do, start an anti-nose picking movement or a pro-Democratic movement?

I know, who gives a shit.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-03 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
19. the obnoxious thing about the poll
is not its accuracy at this time. It is how it is used without valuation of the time it is taken. Too soon, too negative judgment. The point of an edawrds candidacy added to all his other pluses is that he would give Bush a fight in the South. Conceiveably he could lose these states and so affect the campaign of Bush that fatal damage is done overall. Or, to my thinking, a victory could more easily turn to a landlside with edards on the ticket. A landslide being what we should aim for because a mandate against all this crap is what we need.

Helms pontificating blather against Edwards was timely but also careful, some of the stuff said about Bush by the Dems to the tone deaf media. By the record Kerry would seem the strongest overall President, Dean the more consistently in touch with grassroots truth. If we needed an electoral advantage to win I would say Edwards, but having him on the ticket in any event would be a boost toward a bigger mandate.

At least he isn't hesitating and waffling like Cuomo who bowed to the "wisdom" of the times but never stopped hanging around the edges.

Thankfully, not only are many people not paying attention to the candidates, but they certainly are not paying attention to these anticipatory polls. Several primaries have to go by for analyses like this to be real.
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Abigale Applewhite Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-03 08:28 AM
Response to Original message
20. Edwards loosing to Bush in Carolina
If the people really understood the people of North Carolina,they would know,that if Edwards policies pleased the Jesse Helms group.The nation wouldn't vote for Edwards, knowing the people of North Carolina are hesitant to vote for Edwards, insures he will get my vote, would you or any other American citizen out side of North Carolina want a Jesse Helms for president....I think not...
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