Forecasters predict another turbulent hurricane season in Atlantic

[gulfcoastliberal]

FREDERICTON (CP) - In what could signal a frightening new fact of life in the age of global warming, Canadian and U.S. forecasters are warning that another major hurricane season is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.

The 2006 hurricane season officially opens on June 1, and already scientists are telling people living in eastern North America that numerous storms are predicted, with as many as five major hurricanes packing winds of 180 km/h or greater.

snip

"Last year we were looking at 12 to 15 storms and this year the forecast is for about 17. No one would go out on a limb and say it is going to be just as bad as last year, but the indications are there that it is still going to be another active season, almost twice as active as normal."

snip

Scientists with the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team say the same factors that contributed to last year's violent season are still in play this year.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=9da052e7-a601-4314-b94b-0b12f73635eb&k=10853

The Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico Travel Alert Announcement

This Public Announcement is being issued to alert U.S. citizens to the upcoming Hurricane Season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. The official hurricane season runs from June through November. This Public Announcement expires on December 7, 2006.

The National Weather Service predicts that the 2006 hurricane season will be as active as the 2005 season, when 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes caused widespread havoc, billions of dollars in infrastructure damage, and resulted in thousands of fatalities. Many U.S. citizens traveling abroad in the affected regions were forced to delay their return to the United States due to infrastructure damage to airports and limited flight availability. In a number of incidents, flights were suspended and passengers faced long delays due to a need to repair a damaged airport. Roads were also washed out or obstructed by debris, adversely affecting access to airports. In the event of a hurricane, travelers should be aware that they may not have the means to depart the area for 24-48 hours or more.

Should a situation require an evacuation from an overseas location, the State Department will work with commercial airlines to ensure the safest and most efficient repatriation of U.S. citizens possible. Commercial airlines are the Department's primary source of transportation in an evacuation. Other means of transport are utilized only as a last resort. The Department of State does not provide no-cost transportation but does have the authority to provide repatriation loans to those in financial need. U.S. citizens should consider obtaining travel insurance to cover unexpected expenses during an emergency.

U.S. citizens should monitor local radio and other media to stay aware of any weather developments in their area. Minor tropical storms can develop into hurricanes very quickly, limiting the time available for a safe evacuation. Travelers should keep in close contact with their tour operator, hotel staff, and local officials for evacuation instructions in the event of a weather emergency.

http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/14837/

:(

[geomon666]

1. yay

:(

[allisonthegreat]

2. That's all we need...

we are overdue...it always seems to go to wilmington and the outter banks..bad for them but good for us...

[babylonsister]

3. We're finally planning ahead for this eventuality. Have all the

plywood, plylocks, and batteries bought and stored. Trying to get to the point where we won't have to stand in line to feel somewhat protected. Sigh. We're taking this coming summer very seriously!

[kestrel91316]

4. Colorado State University - that's my alma mater.................

so proud of the work they do! Even if they are having to give us BAD news..........

[Blue_In_AK]

5. My daughter went there, too...

Graduated in 2000, I think it was.

[kestrel91316]

6. A newbie, lol.

I got my BS in Microbiology in 1978, and my DVM in 1982. When I started in 1974, the population of Ft. Collins was 35,000 during the school year, and dropped to under 20,000 in the summer, lol. And it was way bigger then than when my mom grew up there.........

I went back in 1999 and barely recognized the place. But it's a very nice town, and sometimes I wish I still lived there, and not here in Lost Angeles (which I loathe).

[Blue_In_AK]

9. How coincidental ...

My daughter is in "Lost Angeles," too. :) (Actually, she lives in Santa Monica but works downtown.)

[robcon]

7. I put zero faith in these 'forecasts'.

We can't predict the weather for a week from today. What makes them think anyone will believe they can forecast the weather 4-8 months from now?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

8. Let's see what the season brings, and then we can revisit this topic.

[hedgehog]

12. Pay better attention to how the forecasts work.

This is based on a comparison to what happened the last time they had a collection of similar data. It's an estimate, not an exact prediction that a storm of such and such a size will hit this location on a particular date. They only said that there's enough energy in the system to make a number of large hurricanes a reasonable expectation. It's the same way they can predict a generally warmer/colder/wetter/dryer than normal weather pattern for the next quarter. That's somewhat different from predicting the exact weather at an exact location in ten days.

[tkmorris]

13. Actually they aren't predicting the "weather"

What they are doing is predicting the near term climate, which is not quite the same thing.

You are correct in that they cannot predict when and where storms will occur precisely and they aren't trying to. What they do however is analyze a number of factors like water temperatures (El Nino/La Nina conditions especially), long term upper atmosphere conditions, the SAL outlook, and so on and on and draw conclusions about the overall favorabilty for storm development. We know low pressure systems will form, what is being predicted is whether they will develop or not.

[donco6]

15. They're usually pretty accurate.

Long term forecasting is totally different from the microforecasting you're talking about.

[sleipnir]

21. They aren't forecasting weather, they're forecasting trends.

Major difference. Notice how there are no specific warnings against specific areas at specific times. These people are simply stating that the trend is there for a busy hurricane season and could likely feature a large range of hurricanes and people should be prepared.

[cliss]

10. Meanwhile back in New Orleans,

the local FEMA office is closing its doors. Too much stuff happening, they say. Our treasury is pretty much ransacked, from 2 wars & Katrina.

The question is, how prepared are they for 2006? Is anything being done?

Hunch = we're on our own.

[sutz12]

18. Something's being done....

they are trying to abolish FEMA. That should help. :sarcasm:

[SoCalDem]

11. I keep this link in my bookmarks..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html
things are heating up

[Delphinus]

14. Whoa!

That's a LOT of red around all our coasts!

[genieroze]

16. But, but, but Boosh says there is no global warming.

[smitty]

17. One area of the United States that has avoided hurricanes

is New York/New England. Some meteorologists think that this might be
year the Northeast gets hit with a severe one. Anyone familiar with Long Island knows how vulnerable its south shore is now.

[sutz12]

19. Imagine a 20 foot storm surge in NYC.

:scared:

[sleipnir]

22. And the US economy goes in the crapper.

That will do it, a cataclysmic event on a major world finance center and the US's major city. That would push us into a serious recession easily.

The amount for cleanup and assistance will dwarf 9/11, much to the sadness of the still homeless people in NO.

[Up2Late]

20. Boy, what a bunch of chickens at the Canadian Weather service...

"...No one would go out on a limb and say it is going to be just as bad as last year..."

This British based forecast center (who was very accurate last year) is still predicting it will be about the same as last year: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/forecasts.html>

Here's the May 2006 report: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastMay2006.pdf>

April 2006: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2006.pdf>

May 2005: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastMay2005.pdf>