Democrats eye big House gains

[deadparrot]

WASHINGTON - California Democrat Francine Busby's first-place showing in Round 1 of Tuesday's special congressional race may give her party a jolt of optimism in its quest to retake the House in November.

But come the June 6 runoff, analysts say, reality will set in: The seat she seeks to occupy, the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), represents a strong Republican district and the odds are steep against her in a two-person race against a Republican. The GOP has a 15-point registration advantage in the San Diego district. In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

Still, Democrats remain energized about November, when every House seat is up for election, and they seek to wipe out a 15-seat Republican margin of control and then some. Only about 35 of the 435 races are competitive, so there's little room for error. Privately, some GOP political handicappers, in a race-by-race assessment, predict that the Democrats will pull it off, as the national mood toward
President Bush and the Republican-ruled Congress sours further.

The two latest generic congressional polls - testing which party voters want in charge - favor the Democrats by large margins: 10 points in one, 16 in the other.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060413/ts_csm/ahouse

[CatWoman]

1. Democrats eye big House gains

WASHINGTON - California Democrat Francine Busby's first-place showing in Round 1 of Tuesday's special congressional race may give her party a jolt of optimism in its quest to retake the House in November.

But come the June 6 runoff, analysts say, reality will set in: The seat she seeks to occupy, the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), represents a strong Republican district and the odds are steep against her in a two-person race against a Republican. The GOP has a 15-point registration advantage in the San Diego district. In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

Still, Democrats remain energized about November, when every House seat is up for election, and they seek to wipe out a 15-seat Republican margin of control and then some. Only about 35 of the 435 races are competitive, so there's little room for error. Privately, some GOP political handicappers, in a race-by-race assessment, predict that the Democrats will pull it off, as the national mood toward
President Bush and the Republican-ruled Congress sours further.

The two latest generic congressional polls - testing which party voters want in charge - favor the Democrats by large margins: 10 points in one, 16 in the other.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060413/ts_csm/ahouse

[UrbScotty]

2. Rove says: C'mon Diebold - get to work! (nt)

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. And for the Republicans, it's Big House gains!

[SoCalDem]

8. was just gonna post that..GMTA

[freeplessinseattle]

11. this sentence is music to my ears

"the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R)"

[Guaranteed]

4. Kick nt

[onehandle]

5. Big House Gains = Only Chance for Impeachment.

Remember that, people.

[Longhorn]

6. Funny how the WP had an article yesterday claiming the San Diego

election results were a bad sign for Democrats. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x203495

:shrug:

[judaspriestess]

7. so even if their former representative gets imprisoned

they will still vote another crook in? I will give Lou Dobbs credit for one thing,

"This country has just gotten more stupid in the past five years" that ain't no joke

[Liberty Belle]

10. I walked precincts here; some voters are shockingly uninformed.

One of our walkers mentioned the importance of having someone honest to replace Duke Cunningham. The conversation went downhill from there:

"Duke who?" the clueless voter asked.

"Your Congressman--the one who went to jail."


"He did?"

[cascadiance]

14. I think "marketing" helped Roach a lot in getting the votes he did...

I suspect that many who supported him were clueless and did so just because they "heard about him a lot" with his $2.4 million of spending on ad campaigns, etc. If the Dems can find a way to communicate to these people in constructive ways, perhaps many who supported Roach before can be pushed into Busby's camp too.

Then again, it would be interesting to see what might happen if Roach goes through with doing a write-in campaign in June too, which he's been rumored lately to contemplate doing. That would be a sure recipe for defeat for the Rethugs, if he and Bilbray split the vote then. Busby doesn't have to get a 50%+1 majority in June's election. Just a win then!

Also have to make sure that the newer voters that have signed on since the start of the year are all being put into the voter registration rolls with the new mess that McPherson has been creating. It was probably too late to get some of these people on board for the April election, but that could make a difference too. In condos I walked, a lot of registered voters had moved. At least one of those who moved in looked to be part of that 23% of "missing" voters that had registered but not received anything from it. I told them to go vote provisionally.

According to yesterday's NC Times, Busby's strength areas were all up and down the coast, where she easily got over 50% of the voters in just about every locale there. Inland she had less support, especially in Rancho Santa Fe where the top three candidates all were around 20-25$. The theory is that those Republicans that crossed over for her were mostly supporting her positions on social issues rather than economic issues, as the coastal Republicans tend to be more affluent, but less "conservative" on social issues. I guess she has to figure out how to get some of those voters on social issues, as Bilbray is also not big in the social issues camp within his own party too, him being perceived as "not conservative" enough for some of them. That's where a write-in campaign by Roach would almost mean certain victory for Busby.

Don't forget that the Libertarian and Independent candidates will also be running in June, and will take away a few votes too. The big question is how the religious right voters will vote, and how many of them turn out.

[truthisfreedom]

9. time for a terralert! watch prominent Dems get attacked again... bushco

would do it again.

[ShockediSay]

12. don't count your chickens before they come home to roost - n/t

[PetraPooh]

13. My thoughts exactly, I understand from some information during

Washington Week on PBS last night that it depends on how the question is asked. If asked about the approval of DemLegislators the number was 41 vs a separate question about RepLegislators the number being 38. Only a 4 point spread. However if asked "are you likely to vote Dem or Rep?" (ie in direct comparison) then it jumped to the double digit difference. The fellow accurately, IMHO, suggests that the Dems have an opening, but they are yet to come out with strong messages of their own and are currently still so split on so many key issues like the Iraq war and so on, that it may only help the Dems because the unsatisfied Repubs may just stay home for the election. The Dems aren't really making headway of their own accord.

[roguevalley]

15. experts and analysts can bite me. name one thing they've gotten right.

[PetraPooh]

16. Or they DIDN'T get them wrong and elections are rigged.