( Israel) Exit Polls: Kadima 29; Labor 22; Likud 11 (61 needed to govern)

[brooklynite]

Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party was the big winner in the 2006 election on Tuesday, taking 29 seats in the 17th Knesset, according to an exit poll conducted by the Midgam company of 60 polling stations for Israel Television's Channel 1.

Olmert's likely coalition partners in Labor and Meretz won 22 and 5 seats, respectively, guaranteeing a majority for his plan to withdraw from most of the West Bank unilaterally within four years, as he promised during the election campaign.

The right-wing bloc of Likud, National Union-NRP, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas and United Torah Judaism won 50 seats (Likud 11; National Union-NRP 8; Yisrael Beiteinu 14; Shas 11; United Torah Judaism 6), not enough to keep Olmert from forming a government.

The accuracy of the TV exit poll has been marred in the past, most memorably in 1996 when it incorrectly showed Shimon Peres to have narrowly defeated Binyamin Netanyahu for the prime ministership. Final results are expected to flow in the course of the night.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1143498755311&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[arcos]

1. It's very interesting that Likud ended up in fourth place... nt

[Zhade]

4. Considering how many of the fascist Likudniks jumped ship to Kadima...

...it's not all that shocking.

[brooklynite]

2. Surprising that Labor did so well

They were originally expected to be down around where Likud was.

[Zhade]

5. Man, Israelis deserve a better government.

But I guess this is what they want - more rightwing nonsense. :shrug:

[Josh]

8. They didn't -

Labor's vote is up, and Kadima is not the ring-wing party Sharon was leading when he was voted in. This is a vote towards the centre, and with Likud coming 4th, it's a strong sign that Israelis think disengagement is the right way and Netanyahu's way is wrong.

[Zhade]

9. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Kadima favor settlements?

If so, that's hardly disengagement.

[barb162]

10. Kadima is considered Center and they just pulled a settlement

a few weeks ago.

[Zhade]

11. "Center" according to who?

If it's by the Israeli government, please, don't make me laugh.

And pulling "A" settlement is only a start. Let's see more.

[Josh]

12. Well, I'll put it this way -

Israeli politics shifted way to the right after the Camp David and Taba talks broke down.

Netanyahu's Likud was advocating the kind of hard-line attitude that Sharon espoused back in 2001. Sharon however somehow developed this kind of 'Only Nixon could go to China' attitude and decided that he would be the one who started removing Israeli settlements. He was one of the people who made them happen in the first place.

Likud made it hard for him to get what he wanted, even though most of the population favoured a withdrawl from, at a minimum, Gaza, and with more withdrawls from more settlements to facilitate a two-state solution.

It should be noted that polls have always reflected this from the Israeli population; it's just they don't always trust their leaders will do it. The first talk of unilateral disengagement came from former Labor Party leader Amram Mitznah ahead of the elections a couple of years ago. Polls showed that's what the Israelis wanted, but didn't trust Mitznah to deliver it.

Now they believed Sharon was going in the right direction. Then he fell into the coma. But not before he formed the new party, Kadima ("Forward") with a view to continuing disengagement.

So the fact that Kadima, which favours disengagement, and Labor, which favours immediate peace talks, land concessions, and disengagement, came first and second, respectively, seems to me to indicate that Israeli popular sentiment is pushing back towards the centre and left.

Cheers.
Josh

[Zhade]

13. Good post, thanks for the analysis.

NT!

[brooklynite]

3. Telling the Players Apart

Kadima

Platform: Drawing Israel’s borders according to the road map while maintaining settlement blocs, electoral reform

Labor - Meimad

Platform: Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Two state solution, pro-fence, pro-unilateral withdrawals, evacuation of settlements (likely to support hanging onto major settlement blocs in any future deal). Social-economic: With the former union leader at its head, Labor will move left on the social-democratic scale. Peretz wants to raise the minimum wage and enable a free market economy but with certain constraints that would ensure that the competition won’t turn the market into a “jungle.”

Likud

Platform: Under Netanyahu, Likud turned to the right, focusing on its opposition to unilateral withdrawals from Palestinian territories. It is not likely to give up any territory except, possibly, several isolated settlements. Netanyahu said he would be willing to make “real” concessions but did not elaborate. The party stresses Palestinian reciprocity, fighting corruption.

National Religious Party / National Union

NRP’s main agenda: Religious Zionist education and religion. Despite the fact that its official platform highlights the importance of preserving the Land of Israel, its leaders Orlev, in a recent interview, said that the NRP would be willing to make territorial concessions. He didn’t elaborate.

NU’s main agenda: Holding on to all of Judea and Samaria

SHAS

Platform: Helping the poor, supporting Sephardi ultra-Orthodox causes

Yisrael Beitenu

Platform: Trading the Palestinians land in the Galilee heavily populated by Arabs for expanded settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria

MERETZ

Platform: Return to 1967 borders with minor adjustments involving territorial exchanges; division of Jerusalem, solving the refugee problem without a right of return to Israel; liberal social agenda

United Torah Judaism

Platform: Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox causes

Shinui, Secular Zionist Party

Platform: Both parties: Political corruption, separation of religion and state, centrist when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Arab parties

Platform: Advancing equality, helping Israeli Arabs

http://info.jpost.com/C006/Supplements/elections.2006/parties/

[madaboutharry]

6. Exit polls only matter

in other countries.

[DemFromMem]

7. Israel: Kadima ahead, Likud underperforms

Special Alert: Kadima leads in election
Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party won the most seats in Israel's election, but fared worse than polls had suggested. Kadima won 29-32 seats in the voting for Israel's 120-seat Knesset, according to exit polls. As a result of Tuesday's vote, which saw a record-low turnout, Olmert is likely to continue as prime minister, a job he assumed on an interim basis after Ariel Sharon suffered a debilitating stroke Jan. 4. The Labor Party, led by Amir Peretz, was second, with 19-22 mandates. The biggest loser was Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, which won no more than 12 seats and could trail Yisrael Beitenu, a hawkish party led by Avigdor Lieberman that won 12-14 seats. The other big surprise was the six to eight seats won by the Pensioners Party.

www.jta.org