Iranian advisor: We'll strike Dimona in response to U.S. attack

[Scurrilous]

<snip>

"If the United States launches an attack on Iran, the Islamic republic will retaliate with a military strike on Israel's main nuclear facility.

Dr. Abasi, an advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard, said Tehran would respond to an American attack with strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor and other strategic Israeli sites such as the port city of Haifa and the Zakhariya area.

Haifa is also home to a large concentration of chemical factories and oil refineries.

Zakhariya, located in the Jerusalem hills is - according to foreign reports - home to Israel's Jericho missile base. Both Israeli and international media have published commercial satellite images of the Zakhariya and Dimona sites.

Abasi, a senior lecturer at Tehran University, was quoted in the Roz internet news site, identified with reform circles in Iran."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/687022.html

[madaboutharry]

1. The "End Timers" must be

thrilled with this news.

[sarcasmo]

26. Christian Taliban VS Muslim Taliban what the end timers want.

Christian Taliban VS Muslim Taliban. We Atheists need to form our own country, the one good thing is their will be NO Religious War.

[cliss]

41. Yes, but - I think there's something missing.

Wasn't there supposed to be a Temple rebuilt? Or something like that. I'm not up on my Armaggedon. I guess I'm not ready to be "raptured".

[ldf]

94. now THAT would be a twist...

the temple that has to be rebuilt is NOT the one in Jerusalem, but the one that was just bombed. WOW! Just another "misinterpretation".

:shrug:

[VegasWolf]

70. Don't some people have to float out of their cars first?

:puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke:

[Oldtimeralso]

79. Rapture

After the Rapture can I have their cars?

[arwalden]

78. Those Freaks Are Creaming In Their Drawers Right Now.

[rockymountaindem]

2. Pfft. Like Iran could pull that off.

The IAF would make mince-meat of their strike force.

[atreides1]

4. Who said they would be using their airforce?

It's already accepted that the Iranians have more then enough missiles to do the job, and unless the Israelis have AAA that covers every square inch of sky, some of those missiles will reach their target.

[rockymountaindem]

6. Israel is covered by the Arrow missle defence system.

It is the only country in the world with a functional ABM shield. Of course, this is relatively easy for a country the size of New Jersey.

[jpak]

13. The Arrow is "operational" but much less than 100% effective

and I don't believe that the Israelis have full confidence in it....

[Media_Lies_Daily]

30. "Functional ABM shield"??? That doesn't equal perfect defense.

[Ben Ceremos]

44. Do you believe everything you read?

No ABM system can stop a barrage of missiles. The best they can do is knock a few out of the sky.
The Iranian mid-range delivery7 vehicles are up to thye task. The IDF and IAF would be capable of a response, but I would urge all parties to talk this one out. Israel is small and Iran could be capable of delivering a mortal blow to the nation if they feel the end is near for them. Peace trumps war, always.

[Warren Stupidity]

57. Uh, I don't think so..

There are no functional and effective ABM systems. On the other hand Iran has no particular capability to effectively attack the israeli facility at Dimona either. They might be able to lob an inaccurate missile or two in the general direction of Dimona. The Israelis might be able to fire off an ABM in the general direction of the incoming threat.

This was just the asshat Iranian president's weekly infammatory statement. For whatever reason Iran seems to enjoy messing with our heads on a weekly basis, taunting the Israeli/US axis in the ME to do something. Not a particularly good sign. I suspect they think they will do quite well if we are foolish enough to take the bait. Things tend to go horribly wrong when neither side in a conflict thinks they might lose.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

86. Patriot Missile II.

We-Got-A-Third-Of-Them Bugaloo.

[sarcasmo]

27. You don't think the HAMAS Government would invade while Iran

destroyed the shield. WWIII will be the end of modern civilization.

[Warren Stupidity]

77. Hamas invade Israel?

With what? What a clueless thing to say.

[Zynx]

82. Indeed. Israel would hand them their(Hamas') own heads.

[sarcasmo]

88. Clueless? I guess you have NO idea how big Hamas is and don't you think

Hamas already has numerous cells in Israel. IMHO, this administrations stupidity will bring down Israel. I guess that is a clueless statement too. The Hamas charter calls for the destruction of Israel. Hamas now controls the Palastinian Governemnt. Buying Nukes on the black market would not be difficult for Hamas.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-02-26T112509Z_01_L26380808_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST.xml

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/687022.html

[Warren Stupidity]

89. "Buying Nukes on the black market would not be difficult for Hamas."

So what is stopping them?

Since black market nukes are so readily available how come al qaeda hasn't set one off yet? Here is a clue: there are no 'black market nukes'.

"Hamas already has numerous cells in Israel. IMHO, , this administrations stupidity will bring down Israel."

Hamas has no serious military assets. It might be able to set off a bomb or two inside Israel, and as dreadful as that would be, it would not result in the collapse of the Israeli state or the defeat of the Israeli army.

[sarcasmo]

90. Iran has plenty of Military assets and will start the trouble since

both desire the destruction of Israel.

[Warren Stupidity]

92. Please try and stick with one of your arguments.

You just got finished stating that Hamas would nuke Israel, an indefensible position, after first announcing that the fearsome Hamas military machine would invade Israel, an equally indefensible position, so now you are trying to tack off towards another pet boogeyman: Iran.

Well your new argument is equally clueless. Iran has no border with Israel and no navy to speak of. Iran has an airforce, but it is just not up to the task of attacking Israel as it is primarily defensive in composition. Iran could lob a few missiles at Israel, and that would be dreadful, but once again it would not cause the defeat of the Israeli army nor the collapse of the Israeli state, and it would result it a massive retaliation.

[sarcasmo]

106. Here you go again calling me clueless have a nice day.

The ignore button is a great feature.

[Behind the Aegis]

91. Why buy nukes?

Russia is going to hand them arms.

The thing is, there are those here that salivate at the destruction of Israel, or at least a good, nasty attack. Just are the 'right' has their anti-Arab/Muslim 'bogeyman,' those on the extreme left (check out the protesters in an ANSWER rally) see Israel as the 'bogeyman.' Don't believe me...check on any thread about the ME and you are almost guaranteed Israel's name will pop-up. Or even better, any major terrorist attack, you can bet Israel will be blamed or given "credit" for the attack. Hell, even natural disasters are Israel's fault to some people here!

[Warren Stupidity]

93. Usually I find your posts very ignorable but

"Why buy nukes? Russia is going to hand them arms."

What? Russia is going to give Hamas nuclear weapons? Russia is going to provide Hamas with military equipment that can threaten Israel? How is Russia going to do that? Better yet why would Russia do that? What on earth are you talking about?

"check on any thread about the ME and you are almost guaranteed Israel's name will pop-up." Yes well, it seems that Israel is part of the whole middle east mess isn't it? I wonder why Israel keeps coming up in threads on the middle east. Hmmm...
.

[Behind the Aegis]

103. usually I find your posts pompous, lacking, and rude...but...

I am guessing you are not up on the recent news of Hamas and the Russians preparing to discuss arms deals. So far, it is just a few helicopters and some missiles. I guess we will have to wait see where it goes.

Israel is part of the Middle East, but to hear some posters here, one might think she is the only reason there is such chaos in the ME.

[Warren Stupidity]

108. Any arms sales to Hamas

will have to be allowed into palestine with Israeli approval. You know that and as you admit "it is just a few helicopters and some missles". Hardly the equipment required to defeat the Israeli army. You responded to the absurd allegation that Hamas could easily nuke Israel by stating that they wouldn't need to as the Russians would give them the weapons they needed. Your argument is, to put it mildly, wanting.

The bad utterances of the anonymous 'some posters' are of no interest to me. If you have real complaints about actual antisemetic remarks by real posters, take it up with the administrators.

[Behind the Aegis]

110. Yet a continuing example...

Arms sales would only face 'approval' if taken into the West Bank, Gaza, is another story. I also said nothing about defeating the Israeli army. Are you at all familiar with Hamas? If you were then you'd know attacks on the IDF are not as common as attacks on 'soft targets' like discos. Therefore a few helicopters and some missiles could do considerable damage to Israel and her people. I responded to a poster who expressed an opinion about Hamas being able to get illegal nukes. Your response was, as expected, rude and condescending.

I am have little surprise that 'bad utterances' are of little interest to you, as they have not been noticed by your 'superior' intellect. However, you inferred something incorrectly, but I am sure by re-reading my post you will figure out that mistake.

[Renew Deal]

104. Hamas wouldn't stand a chance.

I have heard other people suggest this. It's not realistic. Isreal would eliminate them in a hurry and with pleasure.

[jpak]

7. The Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missile has the range and payload

to strike Israel.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/shahab-3.htm

No need for an air strike...

[genie_weenie]

22. Iran is not very accurate

So, I don't doubt they'd fire off as many missiles as possible, I'm just not sure how many would even hit Israel. Wow, this is getting spectacularly bad...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

31. And you know they're not very accurate because......??

[genie_weenie]

37. Various test firings done by Iran over the years

many have failed or the Rockets have done poorly or odd things in flight. Rocketry is a very difficult science to master, as well as construction, components, care and maintainence.

I don't know how much data on flights of Shahab-3s is in the public record.

[Warren Stupidity]

61. Oh come on, its not rocket science. nt.

[genie_weenie]

62. ha ha ha

:rofl:

[Piscis Austrinus]

85. ROFL

Brilliance in the face of the screamingly obvious. Well done indeed.

Peace
PsA

[demosincebirth]

35. Very true. Half of them will probably blow up in their launch pad.

Have no fear,Israel can take care of itself

[Tesha]

71. Does that matter?

> Half of them will probably blow up in their launch pad.

Does that matter? It's the other half that counts, isn't it?

Tesha

[bananas]

28. New definition for "nuclear bunker buster"

the "nuclear bunker" is Dimona,
the "buster" is the Shahab-3.

[tatertop]

10. The debate is on:

Will the Arrow system stop Russian missiles: Sunburn, Yakhont
(and maybe better than Yakhont).
What does Iran have and how many?

This is by no means a done deal.
I should think far far from it.

[Ben Ceremos]

46. Russian missile technology,

particularly guidance systems are the STATE OF THE ART. No nation has any better missile systems than the Russians. Read Jane's Military Reviews and you will discover this for yourself. Israel would be incinerated and what does it matter if you can then strike back? Bunch of morons...Peace trumps war, always. Americans need to get their collective head out of Bushes ass and prevent this upcoming fiasco which will destroy your nation on the international stage. Instead of supporting a war against the most dangerous adversary America has faced in 70 years, who poses no threat to your country, btw, and start demanding imnpeachment hearings. Unless you like the prospect of living in the newest 3rd world country...

[magellan]

54. Some of us have been demanding impeachment for years

It falls on deaf ears.

There is little that can be done when the number of people in our government who aren't courting this disaster with Iran can literally be counted on one hand, and the majority of Americans stupidly continue to believe everything Bush** tells them. Tragically for the world, American democracy is dead.

I agree with your assessment of the likely results if Iran is attacked. Only madmen would roll the dice on this one.

[tatertop]

72. I completely agree

But it's going to happen, nontheless.

[megatherium]

67. self-deleted. nt

[rustydad]

98. If.........

.......Iran and/or Syria has the new Onyx cruise missile then all bets are off. This puppy can arrive at mach 3 form any direction regardless of launch point. It can terrain hug at 10 feet. Can deliver conventional or nucs. I has pinpoint accuracy. Watch out Israel. Bob

[rustydad]

97. NO

Ballistic missles not air o plains. bob

[politicaholic]

3. Iran uses the threat of US attack for many reasons I imagine...

Controlling the population for one.

Using fear to motivate a harder line government.

Focusing on differences. It's easier to kill someone different than the same as you.

Uniting the nation through a common enemy.

All tactics used by the Bush administration on numerous occasions. Don't blame the Iranians, this has been an effective method for hundreds of years and propaganda is the first rule.

[leftstreet]

5. We need a strong global labor party

This bullshit is getting so old.

[politicaholic]

16. Yes, basically the world needs a stronger international governing body...

so that there can be some accountability that comes with power of all of the world's nation's leaders.

The Bush administration has always opposed accountability at every chance for themselves and the corporations that violate some of the worst labor and environmental standards. Thus John Bolton is appointed to the UN to stifle accountability just that much more. Some would argue that he's demanding accountability from the UN. If he were then he would be an advocate of the world court...of which he is completely opposed.

[hack89]

58. How would you strengthen the UN?

and how would you ensure that despots and dictators are minimized not strengthened? Are you arguing for international laws that supersede the Constitution or complements it? Would you give the UN an independent military force? Would you change how the UN is funded?

[Javaman]

8. Imagine if one missile reaches it's target. The Hamas will come out..

in force.

Also, if it appears as if an American attack is emanate, watch for the attacks on American troops in Iraq to increase sharply. Suddenly, those "dead enders" will become great shots.

Unless a peaceful solution is come up with(highly unlikely with morons* one track mind and his room full of dope yes men), then this will be the start of something that moron* could never ever have imagined in his war folly. His* idea of the "long war" will be our nightmare come true.

Listen to "life during wartime" by the talking heads. It has become a very strange soothsayer for things to come.

[ConcernedCanuk]

9. Don't eliminate the possibility Iranians have a bead on the "Green Zone"

.
.
.

and many other US installations in Iraq

We're not dealing with an emasculated Iraq after 12 years of sanctions

This be Iran with a functioning Air Force AND more than a capable missile system

And more to the point - or should be

What has Iran DONE to anyone lately?

OH

I furgot -

The US THINKS they might do something

so it's ok to slaughter their citizens


(sigh)

[tatertop]

11. Those missiles are going to put the hurt on someone.

They aren't playing. Iran is going to light us up.

[tom_paine]

52. "life during wartime" by the talking heads WOW

I have heard that song a million times and never, beyond the chorus, knew what the *&%# they were saying.

What a song. What a tragedy if it becomes prophetic in detail.

[Richard Steele]

74. "Heard of a van that is loaded with weapons...."

LIFE DURING WARTIME

Heard of a van that is loaded with weapons
packed up and ready to go
Heard of some gravesites, out by the highway
a place where nobody knows
The sound of gunfire, off in the distance
I'm getting used to it now
Lived in a brownstone, lived in the ghetto
I've lived all over this town

This ain't no party, this ain't no disco
this ain't no fooling around
No time for dancing, or lovey dovey
I ain't got time for that now

Transmit the message, to the receiver
hope for an answer some day
I got three passports, couple of visas
don't even know my real name
High on a hillside, trucks are loading
everything's ready to roll
I sleep in the daytime, I work in the nightime
I might not ever get home

This ain't no party, this ain't no disco
this ain't no fooling around
This ain't no mudd club, or C. B. G. B.
I ain't got time for that now

Heard about Houston? Heard about Detroit?
Heard about Pittsburgh, PA?
You oughta know not to stand by the window
somebody might see you up there
I got some groceries, some peanut butter
to last a couple of days
But I ain't got no speakers
ain't got no headphones
ain't got no records to play

Why stay in college? Why go to night school?
Gonna be different this time?
Can't write a letter, can't send a postcard
I can't write nothing at all
This ain't no party, this ain't no disco
this ain't no fooling around
I'd love you hold you, I'd like to kiss you
I ain't got no time for that now

Trouble in transit, got through the roadblock
we blended in with the crowd
We got computers, we're tapping phone lines
I know that ain't allowed
We dress like students, we dress like housewives
or in a suit and a tie
I changed my hairstyle so many times now
don't know what I look like!
You make me shiver, I feel so tender
we make a pretty good team
Don't get exhausted, I'll do some driving
you ought to get you some sleep
Get you instructions, follow directions
then you should change your address
Maybe tomorrow, maybe the next day
whatever you think is best
Burned all my notebooks, what good are notebooks?
They won't help me survive
My chest is aching, burns like a furnace
the burning keeps me alive
Try to stay healthy, physical fitness
don't want to catch no disease
Try to be careful, don't take no chances
you better watch what you say

[hack89]

59. Lets hope Hamas is downwind.

Seriously, can't you see what an enviromental disaster this could be to Israeli and Palestinian alike?

[daleo]

12. He's just a lecturer at a university

He is just speculating, same as a lecturer at a U.S. university would be doing. They call him an "adviser" to the military, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. The military in any country accepts advice from all sorts of people - it doesn't mean said people are privy to the military plans.

[leveymg]

23. I believe he is accurate, though.

Ironically, the fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation and the mass casualties and destabilization of the entire region that would cause gives the Pentagon more reason to oppose any attack on Iran than the threat posed by Iranian forces, themselves.

If one Iranian missile strikes its target inside Israel, World War Four starts.

So, I say, the whole thing is a bluff. The Generals aren't going to let BushCo roll those dice.

[daleo]

24. That all sounds very reasonable

In addition, if the Iranians could hit Dimona, a lot of nuclear fallout might result. That ought to make people stop and pause too, in Israel and the U.S. (and of course everywhere else).

[Ben Ceremos]

47. The Iranian gov't.

often speaks through proxy spokesmen. I would take the lecturer at face value. Speculate at your own risk. He is delivering a message to the West. Are we smart enough to heed the warning?

[oneold1-4u]

14. Since they have reacted -

with this type of threat, the only answer, if the US does strike, will have to be nuke and destroy!
It is bound to happen over there somewhere sooner or later and it might as well be to the nastiest nation to ever exist!
It is not a good idea for anyone to just threaten! Someone will take your weapons and turn them back on you!
We took Iraq with minimal threat but forgot to take their weapons away!

[Nihil]

18. Care to clarify your post a little?

Without wishing to jump to conclusions about your views ...

> with this type of threat, the only answer, if the US does strike,
> will have to be nuke and destroy!
> It is bound to happen over there somewhere sooner or later and
> it might as well be to the nastiest nation to ever exist!

... between your post and the one you replied to, there appear to
be three candidates named who are equally valid for that title.

Which one are you proposing should have its civilians massacred
for the sake of rhetoric?

(Bonus points for suggesting how the other two will survive.)

[PassingFair]

21. I think his aspen just turned....

413 posts? Good skulking!

[daleo]

25. The nastiest nation to ever exist?

That's a pretty tall claim. Even Israelis would probably give that title to Nazi Germany. Iraqis might well put the U.S. under Bush into that category.

[AngryAmish]

55. 70s era Central African Republic might be worst nation ever

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Mac%C3%ADas_Nguema>

However Nazi Germany killed more folks.

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Robeson]

34. General "Buck" Turgidson, is that you?...

...:eyes:

[Ben Ceremos]

50. Iran is one of the oldest civilizations in the world.

THE nastiest nation to ever exist is the USA. It has waged war since its inception, been genocidal, mercenary, rapacious, treacherous, disingenuous, violated international law, allows troops to torture, murder and generally massacre innocent people,intentionally spreads disease and poisons the environment with DU, violates civil righjts, spies on eveyone, destroys democratic movements, threatens the world, maintains an embargo on ideological grounds, wages fraudulent elections,disrespects everyones system except their own, outsources the nation's economy and jobs...America is the real piece of work. Iran is trying to develop it's own culture based on Islamic Shia precepts. You haven't seen them start illegal wars, etc. the "Useless A" is the nastiest nation to ever exist, bar none. History is not popular in American schools because it would reveal you to yourselves accurately, and then you wouldn´t be able to buy into the myth of noble America. Get real and look outside your own toilet...

[enigma000]

76. More than the Aztecs?

Those guys really liked human sacrifices. Didn't cure many diseases either.........

Don't recall the Nazis putting any men on the moon. How many nobel prices have the Saudis won? I'm pretty sure the Iranians didn't invade the USA in the 1860s and forcibly stop slavery. So has North Korea cured cancer yet? How many lunar colonies has Cuba setup?

[Warren Stupidity]

81. Hmmm that is one odd post you got there.

Aztecs: "Those guys really liked human sacrifices" yes well they were in the human sacrifice stage of civilization due to their isolation, we got out of our human sacrifice stage earlier. Meanwhile in Europe in the 1500s it wasn't 'human sacrifice' it was witch burnings etc. I guarantee that our 'civilized' butchery far exceeded anything the aztecs were doing. About that disease thing: they didn't seem to have a lot of diseases until we showed up, and we didn't learn how to cure anything until 1800s. The biggest breakthrough in public health is clean water, and that is a 19-20th century development.

We put men on the moon using nazi technology. Ooops. The saudis haven't won any nobel prizes - you got that right, and of course Iran didn't invade us to end slavery, although slavery didn't exactly end in the 1860s, it was transformed into serfdom (aka sharecropping) and continued in its new form until the tractor put it out of business starting in the 1930s.

I missed the part where anyone has cured cancer or established lunar colonies.

[enigma000]

83. Touche

Good reply......... I was just peeved at the poster's whole "America is evil incarnate and never did anything good" rant. The simpleness of it irked me. I was hoping he was going to reply stating that if it weren't for Americans, we would have found a cure for cancer years ago.........

[Terran1212]

15. Iran would fight back in a thousand different ways

They are very resourceful.

[Behind the Aegis]

17. Typical.

"Strike us and we'll attack Israel." That makes as much sense as attacking Iraq for 9-11. The world is run by the insane!

[Nihil]

20. So true.

> The world is run by the insane!

It sometimes feels like one of those nightmares where you can
see what's going to happen but are powerless to alter events.

[brer cat]

29. I think the world is run by 12 year-old boys with too much testosterone..

I'm no longer running on estrogen, so maybe that's why I think all the world's "leaders" need to be in a time-out corner before resuming "leadership" of anything other than their kindergarten ring around the rosey.

"Leaders"? What a joke! "You hit me, I'll hit you back worse." That's playground stuff that most of us get over by middle school.

Where in God's, Allah's, Mother Earth's, Budda's name are the DIPLOMATS? (It goes without saying that John Bolton and Condi Rice need not apply here!)Where is the United States Congress? Where are the trusted advisers that USED to be at the President's right-hand side, when we had true Presidents not cowboys wanna be's playing at being pResident?

This juvenile stuff from BOTH sides is going to send us once again into war. May Mother Earth bless us on DU...she may be all we have going for us.

Peace.

[bananas]

36. Chickenhawk Pecking Order nt

[rooboy]

48. It makes perfect sense to the Islamic states.

Israel is America's forward base in the middle east. Striking it is akin to striking America to them.

[Behind the Aegis]

49. Some how, I doubt that is their real reason.

[bluerum]

19. And the sabres rattle into the night,,,,,,,, eom

[lovuian]

33. I think this is Iran's way of saying Israel we know where to strike you

and they do... this could really hurt them....

[Tight_rope]

38. I don't think we should be fucking with people who have kicked our ass

in the past. And we had help mind you!

[LibertyorDeath]

39. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that China & or Russia

has Armed Iran to the teeth with the best weapons systems they
have available to sell along with military advisor's for the best
deployment and use of these weapons systems.

[cliss]

42. That's what I think, too.

There are some very important points Cheney had better think about: IRAN is not Iraq. For starters:

a) Iran has 68 million people. They have a very effective military. Their population is loyal, and they seem to be mobilized. I know that last week Bush asked for $75 million in "emergency" funding for propaganda in Iran, but I think it's going to fall on deaf ears. The Iranians seem to be sticking together, rather than falling apart from the intense pressure they're under.

b) Iran has the world's #2 supply of oil. THAT makes them a very valuable country. They also have the world's #1 supply of natural gas. Iran has made some very powerful friends, like India, China and Russia. I'm willing to bet that these 3 countries have all called Cheney recently and told him to "back off" or else.

c) China and Russia have probably sold an unbelievable weapons arsenal to Iran.

My hunch tells me Washington is absolutely desperate about Iran. Why would Bush clamor for "emergency" propaganda for Iran? There's something going on here.

[LibertyorDeath]

45. Iran's proximity to Russia may be it's best defense

This whole thing is surreal.

[Nihil]

68. Washington *is* absolutely desperate about Iran.

> Why would Bush clamor for "emergency" propaganda for Iran?
> There's something going on here.

The "something" is the same "sin" that Saddam committed.

It involves the scheduled opening of an oil bourse (trading floor)
that will not deal solely in US dollars but in Euros. Freeing the
trade of crude oil (futures) from the USD means that the USD will
lose value and, given the current overdraft outstanding against
the USD as a currency, the scale of the loss could be significant.

Washington (and the rest of the 1% with most of the $) is absolutely
desparate that this does not happen and will go to ANY lengths to
prevent it.

As far as Bush's masters are concerned, this is as much "the end of
the world" as anything the military could achieve so they are going
for broke in a BIG way ... the stake is the planet and they're going
double or quits.

[LibertyorDeath]

101. I know they are fighting the inevitable

[hack89]

60. It certainly worked for the Iraqi military!

every time Russian and US technology have met in the Middle East, the Russian stuff was smoked. The US and Israeli supremacy in C4I is overwhelming - we can find the enemy before he finds us and there is a huge advantage in war for the side that shoots first.

[Warren Stupidity]

63. Russian air defense systems were not ineffective in serbia.

The Serbs actually managed to keep our manned aircraft at a distance (15,000 feet in fact), and we were unable to destroy their ground forces in Kosovo. Only the withdrawal of Russian support kept the Serbs from fighting to a stalemate.

[hack89]

66. True to a certain extent ..

however it was a different type of war with mobile air defense systems protecting mobile army units. The wooded terrain helped with concealment also. Remember also that their air force was ineffective (basically destroyed) and there was no effective nationwide early warning and command and control.

In Iran, the targets (nuclear facilities and C2 nodes) are fixed and the terrain is open. It is not hard to calculate where their air defenses must be located in order to best defend a given site (missile ranges and radar coverage being the big factors) so the Iranians are limited in how they can hide and maneuver their systems. And with persistent surveillance using UAVs and satellites, it will be very hard for the Iranians to keep their systems hidden - every time they radiate radars or move into the open they will be detected. It is my opinion that the Iranian airforce will not be effective with many aircraft being destroyed on the ground in the opening attack. Iranian early warning radars and C2 nodes will also be destroyed at the outset as they are fixed and immobile.

Iran would involve a full blown SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) campaign that incorporates all the lessons from Kosivo and the attack on Iraq. There is no reason to believe that the Iranians will do any better than the Iraqis considering that their air defense system is less robust and redundant.

[Oilwellian]

40. Here's a decent source for Iran's military capabilities

http://www.milnet.com/Iranian-Military.html

I've read Iran is the 4th largest military in the world next to us, China & Russia.

[lovuian]

43. Ok lets just say hypothetically Washington bombs Iran

and Iran bombs Israel....does anybody win in that scenario???

[Behind the Aegis]

53. Yes.

Washington.

Washington bombs Iran...because they might make nukes. (plus (per right-wing) -- for stopping new WMD)

Iran bombs Israel...because they hate Jews...er, it is because Israel is a US "base,"...er...they are doing it for the Palestinians. (plus -- taking/lashing out at the hated enemy of the Muslim world)

Washington can attack Iran again because they attacked an ally. (plus -- they have a "legitimate" reason to attack Iran (right-wing) (additional plus -- they have Israel as a 'scapegoat' for "starting" the war in Iran, which will infuriate the far left.)

So, by my count, it is one plus (Iran) to two (three) pluses (Washington). Although it doesn't declare a winner in your scenario, it sets up a "legitimate" idea of who the 'bad guys' and 'good guys' are.

"Bad guys" = Iran, for attacking a country that didn't attack them.
"Good guys" = Iran, for attacking the 'puppet' of the US, Israel.

"Bad guys" = Israel, for being a 'puppet' of the US.
"Bad guys" = Israel, for being the reason the US goes to war with Iran.

"Bad guys" = US, for, yet another, preemptive attack.
"Good guys" = US, for protecting the world from the 'dangerous' extremists.

The only "truth" in your scenario...Israel will be the "bad guy" and to blame (from the Iranians and the US).

[Coastie for Truth]

56. In which case - ad horrendum - the United States will get Iran's oil

and we can go on with our Texas Hummers and our Texas Caddie Escalades and Texas Caddie ESV SUVs and Texas EXT SUTs and and Texas Lincoln Navigators. None of them silly little Priuses - not for us "REal Macho Texans" like Bush and Shot Gun Cheney.

It will give Bush and Shot Gun Cheney a chance to screw up Iran as bad as they screwed up Iraq.

[lovuian]

64. Thats what I see too I don't see Iran saying I'll bomb America

I think their threat is Israel and I would bet Iraq also...

I think Iran might have other targets ... any allies of Bush will be on the list too...

[wordpix2]

84. question for all scenarios is: how does international power elite benefit

Oil, oil, oil will lead to answers.

[HuffleClaw]

51. well, thats clear enough. just as clear as bush threats.

sounds kind of like the ramblings of rumsfeld to me.

[The Stranger]

65. Hit Dimona with what -- stone throwers? -- Harsh language?

This is bullshit propaganda and fear-mongering, probably setting the stage for a Gulf of Tonkin-type attack.

In another world, or possibly a decade or so, this would be how the doctrine of mutually assured destruction would play itself out by the way, and likely ensure no more invasions, airstrikes or nuclear attacks.

[flyarm]

105. sunburn missle n/t

[Englander]

107. The missiles are called "Shahabs".

Tuesday, 5 October, 2004,

Iran 'increases missile range'

Iran has missiles with a range of 2,000 km, a former president and one of the country's most influential politicians has said.

>snip

In August, Iran was reported to have test-fired a new version of its Shahab-3 missile. The old version was known to have a range of 1,296km (about 800 miles).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3716490.stm

[Massachusetts]

69. We'll strike Dimona in response to U.S. attack

And the winners will be......drum roll.......Cockroaches!

[VegasWolf]

73. The new "radiation" enhanced cockroaches that have IQs of 200. nt

[KansDem]

87. Plus they'll be a lot bigger, like those ants in New Mexico in the 1950s!

...Later, than you think.

Man, I wouldn't want to be around when that happens!

[Emillereid]

75. It is in our control -- we CAN choose PEACE rather than this!

[nebula]

80. I wonder how US carriers would fare against Iran's

large arsenal of Sunburn missiles. From what I've read, the Russian Sunburn is the most advanced and deadliest anti-ship cruise missile ever made, with no defense against it. (Google 'Sunburn missile' for more info).


"...The 1987 surprise attack on the Stark exemplifies the dangers posed by anti-ship cruise missiles. And the dangers are much more serious in the case of the Sunburn, whose specs leave the sub-sonic Exocet in the dust. Not only is the Sunburn much larger and faster, it has far greater range and a superior guidance system. Those who have witnessed its performance trials invariably come away stunned. According to one report, when the Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani visited Moscow in October 2001 he requested a test firing of the Sunburn, which the Russians were only too happy to arrange. So impressed was Ali Shamkhani that he placed an order for an undisclosed number of the missiles.

The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes “violent end maneuvers” to elude enemy defenses. The missile was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system. Should a US Navy Phalanx point defense somehow manage to detect an incoming Sunburn missile, the system has only seconds to calculate a fire solution –– not enough time to take out the intruding missile. The US Phalanx defense employs a six-barreled gun that fires 3,000 depleted-uranium rounds a minute, but the gun must have precise coordinates to destroy an intruder “just in time..."

www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7147.htm

[Name removed]

95. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Harper_is_Bush]

96. Looks like a classic mexican standoff. n/t

[Neshanic]

99. Will the Holloways allow this intrusion into their air time?

Has this scenario been researched? Iran may have to place a call to the family to get scheduled in for war coverage.

[Senator Obama]

100. Iranian Ballistic Missile Capability-Medium range

The Iranians have the ability to strike anything inside of Israel with reasonable accuracy. In the case of Dimona, close would be good enough. Both the Israelis and the Americans know this. Conclude what you may. I conclude that the loudmouth Iranian President was doing a little more than blowing smoke.


"Shortly afterwards, DPRK technicians arrived to assist the Iranians conduct a systematic review of Shahab-3 defects and prepare for another test-launch. On May 1 Iran conducted its fifth flight-test of the Shahab-3. The missile was launched from the "Semnan region" and traveled approximately 1,000km before impacting in the Dasht-e Lut desert southwest of Zahedan. Although the range was less than the nominal 1,300km, the test was considered a complete success, suggesting that Iran had succeeded in solving several technical difficulties in the guidance and engine sub-systems that have plagued the system to date. Israel sources indicate that the improvements in the guidance sub-system were most impressive and that the missile struck a predetermined target. Following the test Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani stated, "We will continue our missile program in order to promote the power and the precision of the Shahab-3 missile." Israeli sources state that the test was "a milestone" for the program.<50>"

from : http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/Missile/3367_3395.html

[Piscis Austrinus]

102. Not good, folks

It wouldn't matter much if Iran failed to hit Israel even once. The launch, or even attempted launch, of even a single missile would be a pretty clear-cut act of war - one which Israel could well deem unprovoked.

As we know, Israel has a reputation for, ah, vigorous foreign policy responses when attacked. I'm not sure our current government is effective enough to be able to talk them out of a counterstrike - the less so if such an attack were to be even slightly successful, since the Iranian strike would have been triggered by an American preemptive move. And I don't like the implications of what could happen if we (a) don't talk them out of it, (b) try to force them not to, or (c) encourage their response. There aren't any good answers to this scenario for us, and the Iranian leadership, I believe, is aware of this.

Ugly doesn't begin to describe what this mess could turn into. This is political brinksmanship at its most dangerous.

Peace
PsA

[plasticsundance]

109. Iran is only giving one response in the event of being provoked

They might have other targets in the case of an US or Israeli invasion, or both. Iran is warning Israel that unlike Israel's attack on Iraq's nuclear plant in 1982, Iran indeed has the means and will to respond against Israel.

Currently, it is believed that Iran might have a missile that can travel 2,000 kilometers, which is approximately 1243 mile. That range from the heart of Iran would be well enough to strike Israel, and certainly a great deal of places in Iraq. I'm sure Iran has intelligence on key US positions inside Iraq.

Unlike Serbia/Kosovo, Iran's strength lies in the fact that it can create a crisis in the oil markets, and even the global markets as a whole. Iran doesn't have to win, but it can make the price very heavy indeed for the US, and also Israel. Russia and China will pick up the pieces, and the neoconservatives will have achieved the opposite of their aims. History is replete with examples of empires bringing themselves down by biting off more than they can chew, but it is the inevitable direction of every empire.