Canada Election: Liberals Still Second to Tories

[Minstrel Boy]

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – The opposition Conservative party led by Stephen Harper is holding on to the lead before next week’s federal election in Canada, according to a poll by Ekos Research Associates published in the Toronto Star. 37 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories.

The governing Liberal party of current prime minister Paul Martin is second with 27 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green party with five per cent.

Support for the Tories fell by two points since the last tracking poll by Ekos, while backing for both the NDP and the Greens increased by one point.

The provincial breakdown gives the Tories a two-point advantage in Ontario. In Quebec, 47 per cent of respondents would back the Bloc.

AngusReid.com

[AX10]

1. I saw a daily tracking poll that puts it at:

Con 36.9
Lib 32.2
NDP: 17.1

[daleo]

8. That's very close to the CPAC/SES tracking poll today

Con 36.9
Lib 31.5
NDP: 17.6

[mom cat]

11. That is an inprovement...I hope they use paper ballots!

[HillDem]

2. Tell me if i have this right

NDP+Liberals+greens will probably equal the new govt? Or will it be NDP and the conservatives?

Forgive me, I am a little confused by the parliamentary system.

[Minstrel Boy]

3. It would if we had proportional representation,

but because we have a first past the post system in 308 races for parliamentary seats, it won't work out that way. With those numbers, the Conservatives will be over-represented and are close to winning a majority of seats.

[HillDem]

4. Gotcha

So those numbers don't really mean anything?

Well, hope all goes well for the NDP and the Liberals.

[Minstrel Boy]

6. They mean something

They mean Harper is winning, the Liberals are crashing, the NDP is doing well and the Bloc will take most of Quebec. Getting regional breakdowns tell more.

Running the numbers through the Hill and Knowlton seat projector (though it can't account for regional and local strengths), this is what it projects for Parliament (when feeding the results in the flash window "affect results by split"):

CONSERVATIVE: 147
LIBERAL: 55
NDP: 44
BQ: 61
OTHER: 1

That would mean a strong Conservative minority. (A majority requires 155 seats.)

[daleo]

9. Seat projections require a large grain of salt

But, those projections would imply that the Conservatives need the support of at least one other party on any issue. That would be weird:

- Liberals when they want to give tax breaks to big business.
- BQ when they want to weaken the federal government.
- NDP when they want to ???

I can't think of a plausible scenario for the last one.

I still maintain it will be much closer, but only time will tell.

[applegrove]

12. I think the Governor General has a role to play here. If Harper has

a minority and fails to pass a finance bill - automatic election. But there is some room in there for the GG to ask the others to form a government - if they can get together. But Harper gets the first shot. Very volatile. And plays into Harper's hands because he can make deals to make himself look even more "middle of the road" and then call an election and run on that. Then if he were to get a majority - he could rule like a neocon and say he isn't a liar - he was just limited by the coalition he formed with the block - and that is why he can now govern as a nazi. Of course when Canadians start to scream - he would say - well we told you our plans flat out - where was governance in our values? Where was social programs in our values? We didn't lie now shut up.

You have to wonder how much the Block is willing to put up with in order to get separation. I mean - they cannot leave their roots but it may be better for them if the NDP helps the Conservatives and the Conservatives win a majority. Cause then they can sit back and watch the Tories tear apart the fabric of our lives and say "hey Quebec - we don't want to be neocons - vote for the block and separate from Canada".

The block will support him I think for that reason. Because then they know a Conservative majority (after a bit) would help the separatists cause. But - if Block & PC don't have majority together - then it is dicey.

[Minstrel Boy]

5. Evangelical churches campaigning for conservatives

Liberal accuses rival of using churches
Richmond Liberal says evangelical pastors are handing out campaign flyers for Conservative Darrel Reid

Vancouver Sun
Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Richmond Liberal candidate Raymond Chan says his Conservative rival, Darrel Reid, is using evangelical Christian pastors to gain support in the riding's large Chinese-Canadian congregations.

"They are organizing the churches," Chan said Monday. "Some of my friends called me last Sunday, saying they are little uneasy about seeing church elders handing out Darrel Reid flyers.

"Someone told me they (the pastors) are urging them to support Reid," said Chan, MP in the last Parliament.

Reid is the former president of Focus on the Family Canada, an affiliate of the American Focus on the Family run by James Dobson, perhaps the most influential conservative religious leader in the U.S.

http://www.canada.com/national/features/decisioncanada/story_05.html?id=83d37a66-30cc-4b27-a11b-e0648e95f0d1

And a couple of anecdotes here:

Two women from a local church group came to our house (and presumably others in our neighbourhood) spreading the word that the Conservative party is "God's" party and that true "christians" must vote Conservative or face damnation. According to these two, the other political parties are anti-"christian" and want to take away the rights of "christians". They were also handing out literature from a local church that was filled with the same BS.

I was extremely offended and, unfortunately, didn't handle the situation very well. I told them that they weren't the religious right, they were the religious wrong; they weren't the moral majority, they were the immoral minority. I asked them when Christianity became associated with hatred and bigotry. I told them to try reading the bible rather than listening to a bigoted minister. Then I told them to get the f*** off our property and take their propaganda with them.

...

I'm a practising Catholic, who's political beliefs are rather out of line with my church. At church this past Sunday, our priest informed us that there were four issues which we must consider when casting our votes: Abortion, same sex marriage, euthanasia, and polygamy. He told us that voting for any party that supported any of these things was a mortal sin. He stated that he could not tell us how to vote, but if we voted for the NDP or the Liberals that we would have to take confession to confess it as a sin. I was confident at some point in this little speech that he'd have to tell us to vote for the Christian Heritage Party candidate in our riding, but, no, he actually came out and endorsed the Conservative candidate.

[tom_paine]

7. Damn, you Canadians have your own Busheviks up there! I knew tyranny

would spread as a domino effect once the Bush Family showed how laughably frail American democracy is (yet still fighting for it's survival -- you can hear the rusty machinery creaking in Fitzgerald/Plamegate, DeLay, Abramoff, and others).

Putin began BushPutinizing Russia shortly after Mr. Bush lead by example in 2000-1. "Soulmates." indeed they are.

I had hoped, as you know, that Canada would provide somewhat immune to BushPutinization, and at least force the Busheviks to dircetly anschluss you.

But it seems as if the BushPutin Cookbook of Transitioning a Nation from Freedom to The New Totalitarianism is going to be in it's penultimate stage.

And the brushfire you have witnessed over here with alarm is spread in your own foliage now. Is it not?

A Faustian deal reeking of medevalism has taken place in Imperial Amerika and it threatens you, as well. It involves the age-old alliance between the aristocracy and religion to keep people ignorant and powerless.

And it is in Free Canada, eating at you as it is at us.

Have I got the situation about right or not? Please enlighten me, because I am sure I do not know nearly enough about the situation.

:hi:

[Terry_M]

10. It's not that simple...

The liberal party in Canada has been slowly getting more and more corrupt and they have done nothing to solve this issue... They need to be thrown out, and unfortunately the conservatives are the only realistic way of doing it... I'm hoping for a weak conservative minority government.

[applegrove]

13. Liberal Party is not getting corrupt. When Conservatives were in power

with Mulrooney - they had cabinet ministers on trial or investigated all the time.

The Liberals had a $250 million dollar sponsorship program (to promote Canada) and $2Million was stolen by back room boys and some of it put in Liberal coffers. None of the Cabinet Ministers or PM (the old one) knew anything about what was going on. The auditor general caught it and the Liberals investigated it.

Quebecers were insulted (program aimed at them too - to keep them in canada) because money was thrown around at their sports stars and the like.

People are just tired. And want to punish the Liberals.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. Flight Plan B.

Form a new country in some semi-arid Asian/African country, carved out of some bordering nation's territory that is soon to be a mortal enemy.

:think:

Let's Go!

Beats a railcar to Guantanamo. :party:





ETA: Harper, Chimp and Fox. Think about it.