STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 28 November

[ozymandius]

Monday November 28, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 55 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1803 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1502 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1464
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 25, 2005

Dow... 10,931.62 +15.53 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq... 2,263.01 +3.03 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,268.25 +2.64 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.43% -0.04 (-0.96%)
Gold future... 496.40 -0.60 (-0.12%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[muchacho]

1. Thanks

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.08 Change +0.04 (+0.04%)

Dollar Bulls Reestablish Their Dominance

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5091&Itemid=39

One of the most common mistakes traders seem to make is position size. Most traders instantly size up their positions after only few successful trades that they were lucky to be involved in, and that is a bad mistake. Size is a double-edged sword, which can cut the trader with either edge, because size will not only magnify profits, but will also magnify loses. Another common mistake is increasing the size of the next position after a losing trade in an attempt to recover the losses. That is when the trader is most vulnerable, because he or she is not only emotional because of the loss, but also an increased size can push the account deeper into loss. As a trader I learned the hard way to bring my size down when my trades are not going my way, not the other way around, because when my trading is suffering, my account should not. Loss of capital will hinder the trader’s ability to recover the losses and eventually will force the trader out of the market. Size does matter when it comes to trading; initial position size must always reflect the size of the account. Please feel free to email me at [email protected] with your comments.

<snip>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls continued to head lower after the greenback longs managed to launch a counterattack, which pushed the pair below the 1.1700 handle. A further move to the downside will most likely see the euro retreat further and with a break of the single currency defenses around 1.1686, a level established by the November 22 daily low, will most likely see the pair tumble below the 1.1600 level and take on the euro’s bids around 1.1546, an October 17, 2003 daily low and a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair head deeper below the 1.1500 figure and with a break of the 1.1400 level testing the single currency defenses around 1.1379, a level marked by the November 7, 2003 daily low. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to give up more territory to the advancing greenback longs after failing to gain momentum below the 119.00 handle. A sustained breakout to the upside will most likely see the dollar bulls push the pair above the psychologically important 120.00 handle, and force the Japanese yen bull to retreat higher toward the 120.72, a level marked by the August 1, 2003 daily high. A further collapse of the yen defenses will most likely see the greenback longs make their way toward 121.92, a level established by the March 24, 2003 daily high. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 41.41 signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while overbought RSI adds to a trending outlook.

...more...

Questions remain over feasibility of pegging dinar to dollar

http://www.kuna.net.kw/home/story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=790049

KUWAIT, Nov 23 (KUNA) -- Despite the cancellation of Wednesday's special parliamentary session designated for discussing the pegging of the Kuwaiti dinar to the US dollar and the discount rate increase by the Central Bank of Kuwait, questions stand as to feasibility of the pegging.

Pegging may cause a fall in the value of Kuwaiti investments and the value of the dinar itself, where local estimations show foreign investments priced in US dollars at 42 percent.

National Assembly Speaker Jasem Al-Kharafi had announced last week that the session was cancelled after MPs who requested it "suspended their request as the topic requires greater technical studying by specialized parliamentary committees." The pegging of the dinar to the dollar is not a complete pegging, where the dinar is free to move within a margin of 3.5 percent up and down in accordance with the economic status of the country.

The fall of the dollar, however, has contributed to the increase of inflation which currently stands at 3.5 percent as stated by an Economist Intelligence Unit study published by The Economist magazine.

Both the economy of Kuwait and that of the US have their reasons for deciding on the interest rate, and although there is no link between the two economies, local interest rates have gradually taken to following the pattern of those in the US.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Rate views support dollar, gold hits 18-yr high

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051125:MTFH95028_2005-11-25_13-41-58_L25150218:1

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Expectations that the dollar will retain its interest rate advantage weighed on the yen and euro on Friday, while investor buying lifted gold to a fresh 18-year high just shy of $500 an ounce.

Wall Street was set for a largely steady start to a holiday-shortened session, with retailers in focus on hopes for a big Thanksgiving weekend shopping spree.

European stocks rallied, supported by Japanese stocks closing at a near 5-year peak as banks rallied on the back of solid results.

European government bonds hit a one-month peak, extending Thursday's rally which came after soft German business confidence and regional inflation data reassured investors the European Central Bank will not raise interest rates aggressively.

The dollar climbed 0.4 percent to 119.4 yen, within striking distance of a two-year high as Japanese investors' demand for foreign securities continued to take a toll on the currency and mixed inflation data cemented expectations that interest rates in Japan will not rise soon.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Dollar marks time ahead of ECB rate meeting, U.S. job report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38684.3658578472-852437136&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded little changed against its chief rivals Monday, as currency traders awaited a European Central Bank interest-rate meeting and a U.S. employment report due later in the week. In morning North American trading, the dollar was barely changed against its Japanese counterpart, at 119.74 yen compared to 119.77 late Friday. The euro was fetching $1.1718, barely moved from $1.1720 late Friday.

[UpInArms]

50. Dollar turns lower vs. major counterparts

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38684.4692368056-852447647&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar turned lower against the Japanese yen after stalling just shy of 120 yen, traders said. A reported drop in U.S. home resales didn't have much impact, although added to dollar-selling sentiment. The euro also moved higher, having triggered chart-related buying once it maintained $1.1770, currency analysts at Action Economics said. At last check, the dollar was trading at 119.32 yen compared to 119.77 yen late Friday, down 0.3% on the day. The euro was up 0.6% at $1.1790 vs. $1.1720 late Friday.

The drop in home sales means a bubble is popping - the Fed signals that it will react to the "market"; meaning rate increases might not occur - the dollar drops in response as it is counting on continuing rate hikes.

[UpInArms]

56. Dollar drifts lower on hints of US housing market slowdown

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/11/28/afx2355841.html

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar drifted lower after disappointing news on the US housing market prompted some profit-taking ahead of a pivotal few days for the currency markets.

<snip>

Officials at the US Federal Reserve, in particular its chairman Alan Greenspan, have been getting increasingly concerned about the overheated housing market in recent months. Many observers think the strengthening housing market has been pivotal in the gradual increase in US borrowing costs over the last couple of years.

However, investors will require more information before they have a clearer idea about how the interest rate differential between the US and the euro zone will work out over the coming year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. Currencies held hostage to fortune

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2005%5C11%5C27%5Cstory_27-11-2005_pg5_25

LONDON: The prospect of changing interest rate regimes in the world’s largest economies is throwing the direction of global currency flows into question.

For the most part, 2005 has been the year of the dollar, which has been driven higher by various factors, among which favourable interest rate differentials have been key. It is up more than 15 percent versus both the euro and yen.

Whether this flow continues is now in doubt, however, courtesy of global central bank musings. Next year could bring a weaker dollar and a stronger euro and yen.

<snip>

The buck stops here: Directions are understood, but what is not known is when and to what degree the banks are going to act, and in this — not for the first time — the Fed is the key.

...more...

[UpInArms]

90. the buck is definitely falling off a cliff

Last trade 91.14 Change -0.90 (-0.98%)

Settle 92.04 Settle Time 23:38

Open 92.17 Previous Close 92.04

High 92.31 Low 91.07

Last tick: 2005-11-28 13:57:45 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

101. buck below 91

Last trade 90.99 Change -1.05 (-1.14%)

Settle 92.04 Settle Time 23:38

Open 92.17 Previous Close 92.04

High 92.31 Low 90.80

Last tick: 2005-11-28 14:21:59 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

103. Zowie! Well, on the bright side it will inflate the value of those still

to be repatriated funds from overseas. Big finish in profits for the year! Bonuses all around.

[UpInArms]

108. Dollar knocked back after failing to clear key levels

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={864FC2AE-3920-4CCF-8674-9A742278AA23}&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar's inability to clear some key chart points against the euro and the yen on Monday convinced some investors to cash in on the greenback's recent run to two-year highs.

The dollar gained to within a whisker of the psychologically significant 120-yen mark early on, riding weaker-than-expected Japanese retail figures and signs of a relatively solid start to U.S. holiday spending.

The dollar scored a fresh 27-month high against its Japanese counterpart at 119.93 before bouncing back shy of the heavily options-fortified area of 120 yen.

In late North American trading, the dollar was changing hands at 118.84 yen, down 0.7% from 119.77 late Friday.

<snip>

The Fed, meanwhile, began to lay the groundwork for the end of its now 18-month-long tightening cycle in minutes from its November meeting released last Tuesday. Financial markets still look for two more rate hikes in the United States, taking the Fed's target to 4.5% by the end of January.

...more...

[54anickel]

100. Attempting to Start a "Wave"

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=406

snip>

First, on Friday, when there was little to no volume after the "boys" in London headed home... What I was afraid of... "black box" trades seemed to rule the day... The euro kept ratcheting down all day, and for no particular reason at all... So... Nobody manning desks, and the euro heading down, equals black box trades... Computer generated, which triggered other trades...

Now, to this week... In case you missed class on Friday, I mentioned that two large currency houses, Royal Bank of Canada and HSBC had issued alerts to begin "scaling back into euros"... Well, to follow those two up... Morgan Stanley's Stephen Jen, global head of currency research, said in an interview yesterday, that he believes the euro is about ready to turn around. "The pent-up demand for euros is rising quietly and it wouldn't take much for people to pile in and start buying."

So, that makes three large currency houses trying to start the "wave"... You know like at the ballpark, and everyone starts doing that darn "wave". Well... If you watched it get started, it's funny... You get a couple of people to do it, and it stops, then you get a few more, and it stops, but then, you get a whole section to "buy into doing it" and then next thing you know, the whole stadium is doing the "wave"... (Except, Me!, I refuse to do that!)... Anyway the point I'm trying to make here, is that RBC, HSBC, tried to start the wave and it stopped... Now they've picked up Morgan Stanley, and we'll see how far the wave can go now... My guess, is that it will stop again, and they'll need to get more people to "buy into the idea"!

snip>

From all that I read last night, and this morning, most observers and economists believe that the data coming from the U.S. this week will all be dollar friendly... It all begins today with Existing Home Sales... Then tomorrow we begin to see the real beef with Durable Goods Orders, which are expected to partially reverse last month's awful showing of a big negative -2.4%... We'll also see the national Consumer Confidence for November, and it is expected to rebound big time from 85 to 90... Again, I don't know what the heck people are so Confident about, they obviously haven't seen their credit card bill payment schedules doubling yet.... Wednesday, we'll see a preliminary reading on 3rd QTR GDP, which is expected to climb to 4%...

Then on Thursday, my two new faves, Personal Income and Spending, which looks as though it is going to continue to show us spending more than we make in October! And then the ISM Manufacturing Index will print for November, and is expected to weaken to 58 from 59.1.... And to end the week, we have a Jobs Jamboree Friday! Chris is going to be busy!

more...

[UpInArms]

4. Former auditor isn't done with Enron

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2005-11-24-andersen-usat_x.htm

For the first time in years, David Duncan could afford to enjoy himself this Thanksgiving. The former Andersen auditor, who managed the firm's lucrative Enron account while the energy giant cooked its books, is no longer a felon.

But he could still prove to be a pivotal witness in the upcoming trial of former Enron CEOs Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling.

Duncan pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice in April 2002 for organizing a massive campaign at Arthur Andersen to shred Enron-related documents just as the fraud was coming to light. He testified at the government's trial in May 2002 that resulted in Andersen's conviction of one count of obstruction of justice.

But the Supreme Court overturned Andersen's conviction earlier this year, saying that the trial judge's jury instructions had been too broad. Shortly thereafter, Duncan began to rethink his position.

When prosecutors from the Enron Task Force decided not to seek a retrial of Andersen earlier this week, they allowed Duncan to withdraw his guilty plea. The former auditor is not in the clear yet — prosecutors could bring other charges against him at some point — but his future is brighter than it used to be.

With the trial of Lay, Skilling and former Enron chief accounting officer Rick Causey just two months away, Duncan might end up being a witness for the defens

...more...

[54anickel]

38. So Duncan got a "do over"? Admits he's guilty, plea bargains, and

agrees to testify for the prosecution. Then the SCOTUS tosses out the juries findings on what is basically a technicality.
So now he gets to plead innocent? Next we'll hear that his original guilty plea was under duress or maybe even torture. :eyes:

[AnneD]

89. Hummmmm.......

how do you torture an accountant-make them balance the books using disappearing pencil lead----no wait, that is how Enron balanced their books. OH OH, I got it. Start off easy, make them work with unsharpened pencils and extra columns. Make them use a special calculator that totals the same numbers to different sums. Then force them to balance to the penny-but have the penny error pop up in different spots each time. Have them do the quarterlies the day before. Yeah, that out to make 'em sing.

[UpInArms]

5. Krispy Kreme to Miss Deadline on Statements

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-briefs26.5nov26,1,723168.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc., the target of a federal accounting investigation, said it didn't expect to meet a Dec. 15 deadline to release its financial statements and was in talks with its lenders about getting an extension.

"While the company is making substantial progress towards the preparation of such financial statements, it is highly unlikely they will be completed by the required date," Winston-Salem, N.C.-based Krispy Kreme said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Krispy Kreme hasn't reported earnings for four quarters as the SEC and federal prosecutors examine how the company accounted for the repurchase of franchises for its factory stores. Krispy Kreme in April arranged $225 million in loans to avert bankruptcy. It made an agreement with the lenders to submit audited results by Dec. 15.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Newmont Forecasts Gold to Rise Above $1,000 on Asian Demand

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aotpaNV5Qtpw&refer=asia

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest producer of gold, says the price of the precious metal may rise to more than $1,000 an ounce in the next five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply.

The gold market ``is hot and it is going to get hotter,'' Denver-based Newmont's President Pierre Lassonde said in an interview on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television today. ``By early next year you are going to see $525 and down the road even a lot higher than that.''

Gold for immediate delivery touched $497.02 on Nov. 25, the highest intraday price since December 1987, as Japanese investors bought bullion to hedge against inflation and jewelers in Asia and Europe stocked up. Lassonde's prediction surpasses a Merrill Lynch & Co. forecast in July that gold may rise to $725 by 2010 because of rising demand from China.

<snip>

Gold may top a record $873 during the next three years because the U.S. will be unable to check inflation caused by rapid growth in China and India, William Gary, a publisher of newsletters with subscribers that include hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., forecast last month.

<snip>

``Everybody thinks inflation is going to stay at 2 percent, I don't believe it,'' said Lassonde. ``There has been way too much money printing in the world for that to happen.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Gold resumes climb toward $500

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0F3D3298%2D478E%2D4DA6%2DB754%2D134CF15079B9%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures continued to move toward the key $500-an-ounce level Monday in a broad metals rally, as platinum prices rose above $1,000 for the first time since 1980.

Copper prices joined in on the action as well, climbing to an all-time futures high of $2 a pound.

The market may be "balking at the $500 level in the nearby contract and ... without a resurgence of inflation or a sharp slide in the dollar, we have to wonder if the market has the buying capacity to rise to and hold a new higher trading," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com, in daily commentary.

But at last check, gold for December delivery was up $2.70 at $495 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It climbed as high as $499.30 overnight and rose to an intraday high of $499 -- levels the market hasn't seen since December 1987.

Gold has risen sharply in recent weeks, driven by a combination of strong physical demand from India and China, central-bank buying and demand from inflation-wary institutional investors.

Meanwhile, platinum futures reached a high of $1,004 an ounce in New York -- a level not seen since March 1980.

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. Dec Gold @ $495.70 oz - Jan Platinum @ $995.50 oz

11:37am 11/28/05 DEC COPPER TRADES AT ALL-TIME HIGH OF $2.005/LB, UP 1.9%

11:37am 11/28/05 DEC GOLD CLIMBS $3.40 TO $495.70/OZ AFTER $499 HIGH

11:37am 11/28/05 JAN PLATINUM UP $11.20, OR 1.1%, AT $995.50/OZ

[UpInArms]

68. Gold tops $500 oz - @ $502 oz

Gold (CMX)
February 06 ($US per Troy oz.) 502.00 +5.60 502.30 497.20 496.40 11/28 12:10pm

Silver (CMX)
March 06 ($US per Troy oz.) 8.43 +0.20 8.44 8.29 8.23 11/28 12:10pm

Platinum (NYM)
January 06 ($US per Troy oz.) 997.00 +12.70 998.00 993.00 984.30 11/28 11:58am

Copper (CMX)
March 06 ($US per lb.) 1.90 +0.04 1.91 1.89 1.85 11/28 12:10pm

[UpInArms]

76. Dec Gold closes @ $498.30 oz - Jan Platinum @ $1,001.10 oz

2:00pm 11/28/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $498.30/OZ, UP $6, OR 1.2%

2:00pm 11/28/05 JAN PLATINUM UP 1.7% TO END AT $1,001.10/OZ, NEAR 26-YR HIGH

2:00pm 11/28/05 DEC COPPER CLOSES AT A RECORD $2.016/LB, UP 4.75C, OR 2.4%

2:00pm 11/28/05 DEC SILVER UP 3% TO END AT $8.35/OZ AFTER $8.375 1-YR HIGH

[EuroObserver]

81. Sounds quite sensible. Silver too? n/t

[54anickel]

93. A Gold Bull Market

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/nov282005.html

As long-term readers of my commentaries know I am quite confident that the gold price will exceed $800 an ounce within the next few years primarily due to continued dollar devaluation on foreign exchange markets, as has been the case since 2001.

But it is becoming more and more difficult to explain recent gold price activity purely in terms of the US dollar exchange rate. While both US dollar inflation and a decline in the US dollar exchange rate will cause the gold price in US dollars to increase, the gold price is currently rising across the board of currencies.

Of course, it is to be expected that the gold price will, over time, rise against all currencies because gold inflation is typically less than the inflation rates of almost all fiat currencies. The question is whether the current increase in the gold price is merely a result of the inflation rates of fiat currencies or whether there are other influences that are causing the gold price to rise more rapidly than inflation alone would dictate. This is a very difficult question to answer since the data required is not readily available.

I have been able to calculate what I think the gold price should be in US dollars because the United States regularly publishes a wide range of data. For the purpose of calculating a theoretical gold price I have found M3 data most useful, since it is the broadest measure of money supply. However, the Federal Reserve announced that it will cease to publish M3 data as of March 26 next year. The Fed told economic reporters that M3 is being discontinued because it's too costly to produce, irrelevant for setting monetary policy, and a burden for banks to report.

snip>

I find it quite interesting that the Federal Reserve decided to stop producing M3 figures precisely at a time when M3 seems to be exploding. The average annual increase in M3 during the past 20 years was 5.9%. However, during the past 3 months, M3 has increased at an annualized rate of over 10%. Given that the US dollar is also the reserve currency of the world, such high inflation rates for the dollar could impact more than the value of this currency alone.

more...

[UpInArms]

7. Mall Stores See Trouble in Sales Data

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/28/business/28retail.html?hp&ex=1133154000&en=d4c91fc0b5acbddf&ei=5094&partner=homepage

As the nation's retail executives began poring over, and in some cases despairing over, sales receipts from the holiday weekend, one pattern became clearer: consumers mobbed discount chains, with their $398 laptops and 5 a.m. openings, but largely shopped right past other specialty retailers at the mall.

The disparity, analysts said, could indicate a tough season ahead for clothing retailers like Gap and Aéropostale and even deeper discounts for shoppers as the chains scramble to build momentum in the crucial approach to Christmas.

ShopperTrak, which measures purchases at 45,000 mall-based merchants, found that sales for the day after Thanksgiving fell 0.9 percent from last year, to $8.01 billion, a figure not adjusted for inflation.

"The specialty guys just got outgunned this time around," said John D. Morris, a retail analyst at Harris Nesbitt.

<snip>

One possible explanation for the in-the-mall, outside-the-mall discrepancy: discount chains, led by Wal-Mart, blitzed consumers with advertising well before Thanksgiving, opened their stores even earlier than last year and offered the most talked-about discounts, like a $188 15-inch flat-panel television at Circuit City and a $77 H.P. four-megapixel digital camera at Staples.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. stock futures rise as holiday sales jump

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T125817Z_01_N28239926_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures indicated markets may extend a five-week rally on Monday after Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and other retailers reported a surge in sales over the weekend, boosting the outlook for the holiday shopping season.

Wal-Mart shares rose 0.7 percent to $50.85 before the bell as the company reported better-than-expected post-Thanksgiving sales.

Shares of other retailers may also rise as a report by the U.S. National Retail Federation showed sales surged 22 percent to $27.8 billion in the post-Thanksgiving weekend.

<snip>

"Stocks may have a solid jump start this week after reports of strong retail sales on the weekend," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. in Boston. "Many investors are ready to keep buying stocks even after five weeks of gains."

...more...

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

13. I just love these conflicting accounts.

A little cognitive dissonance early in the morning helps jump start a few idle neurons. Who do you believe?

[UpInArms]

15. I believe that a lot of "loss leaders" were sold

in many discount stores - that regular sales sucked lemons and that the spinners will be out in full force.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

17. My Republican sister, who loves Wal-mart shopping, says that

the sales floor was not busier than usual. She went inside, found what she was looking for and got out. No prob.

I'm sure we'll be hearing a fair amount of rhetorical data summarizing the so-called "Black Friday" results.

[EuroObserver]

82. That comment posted 14:30 PM in W. Europe n/

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. stocks off as investors digest retail sales

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T160403Z_01_N28255732_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-5.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were lower on Monday as investors paused after a five-week rally and shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell as investors worried that retail sales tapered off over the busy holiday weekend.

Though retail sales were strong on "Black Friday" as shoppers kicked off the holiday shopping season, investors shied away from retail stocks on concerns that traffic had slowed after Friday and department stores could see mixed results.

Even though Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said sales were better-than-expected on Friday, investors worried that deep discounts to draw in customers could hurt profit margins and shares edged down 1.2 percent to $49.91. Shares of JC Penney Co. (JCP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) also fell 1.4 percent to $53.35.

...more...

Guess the reality didn't match up with the spin and hype :eyes:

[UpInArms]

12. Shopping dropped off after discounts

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5749642.html

NEW YORK - The 2005 holiday shopping season got off to only a modest start over the Thanksgiving weekend as consumers responded initially to aggressive discounting and then retreated.

"There was a lot of hype, a lot of promotions and lot of people, but the results were on the lukewarm side," said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, estimating that the weekend's sales results were down from a year ago. He said heavy markdowns forced retailers to sell more goods to meet sales targets.

Analysts said there was heavy shopper traffic early Friday when stores opened even earlier than usual for the day after Thanksgiving, offering deep discounts. When the early-bird specials were over, consumers lost their enthusiasm.

"If you give Americans a bargain, they will get up whatever time to take advantage of it. But I don't think this weekend turned out to be as big as retailers hoped," said C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, based in Charleston, S.C.

...more...

[54anickel]

65. Seems silly to me. If they're willing and able to sell a $20 thingy

for $10 early on Friday, but bump it up to $18 on Saturday, I ain't gonna buy it. They've already revealed their low ball price. I'd sit tight and wait for another big sale after they've been hurting a while...might not get all the way back down to $10, but it'll surely come down from $18.

But that's just me - ain't nuttin' I need or want so badly that I can't wait it out. And I'll be damned if I'm gonna get my arse outta bed and fight the 6 am crowds for that low ball price. Want my business, give me a decent price at a decent hour.

[AnneD]

85. Went to Wally World-after 11 on Fri

so I missed the goodies but there was an insulated vest (for Hubby-southern Indians don't tolerate cold very well) that was $10 on Friday but $15 on Sunday. Yeah, the same jackets (almost same number). Guess the vests had a cost of living raise. If I can't get a good deal, I ain't buying. I am paying cash too so no February remorse.

[UpInArms]

14. 'Black Friday' Sales Down Some From 2004

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-briefs27.2nov27,1,2226172.story?coll=la-headlines-nation

The official holiday shopping season appears to have gotten off to a lukewarm start, said a national research group that monitors retail sales. Wal-Mart was a bright spot, reporting that sales exceeded expectations.

ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at about 45,000 retail outlets, said overall sales Friday were relatively unchanged compared with a year ago, despite heavier discounting and expanded hours that drew a surge of shoppers in the early morning. The Chicago-based research group reported total sales at $8 billion, down 0.9% from a year ago.

[UpInArms]

18. Shoppers hanging onto their money

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/13273451.htm

For retailers at Stanford Shopping Center, Thanksgiving weekend echoed nationwide trends -- shoppers were there, but not in throngs and not without careful purchasing.

The center is one of the region's most popular places to browse and buy, but at Edwards Luggage store, customers ebbed and flowed, salesman Bob Somers said Sunday.

Sales at the store did match last year's post-Thanksgiving weekend, he said. But there was no quixotic buying. ``People are not browsing,'' Somers said. ``They know what they want.''

The 2005 holiday shopping season got off to only a modest start across the country, as consumers responded initially to aggressive discounting and then retreated.

``There was a lot of hype, a lot of promotions and a lot of people, but the results were on the lukewarm side,'' said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, estimating that the weekend's sales results were down from a year ago. He said heavy markdowns forced retailers to sell more goods in order to meet sales targets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. there was also this:

Still, ShopperTrak RCT, which monitors sales at more than 45,000 retail outlets, found that it was a difficult weekend overall. The company said late Saturday that Friday's sales slipped 0.9 percent to $8 billion, only a small change from a hefty 10.8 percent gain a year earlier.

But Niemira, who serves as a consultant to ShopperTrak, said the company's preliminary figures showed business dropped off dramatically on Saturday, resulting in the weekend's results being weaker than a year ago.

Actual results for Saturday will not be available until today, he said.

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I missed the early shopping. I was mugged outside my apartment Thanksgiving night. I had visions of those putzes buying a plasma tv in the wee hours of the AM at Best Buy, before I could get to the bank and cancel everything at nine. We tussled for about 5 min. I was screaming my head off, my daughter was whacking them with a bag containing a couple of bottles of sparkling cider. My poor immigrant neighbours across the way didn't understand what was going on, but helped once they figured it out (and they felt so badly about it happening-they check in on us every chance they get). Outside of a few sprains and bruises we are ok. Everything is being replaced etc. But I was ticked that I missed the sales-and I don't intend to pay more for their crappie merchandise than the promo price-guess we will do without this year. Ever one I know is saying they will be cutting back severely-so we shall have to watch the numbers.
I watched Chris Wallace on Fox this weekend :tinfoilhat: and he was whining and opining about why Bush isn't getting the credit for the great economy :eyes: All I could think of was yes, he is getting credit for the economy and that is one of the reasons his numbers are in the crapper. Everyone wants their bonuses on Wall St. but come the new year, many will be suffering the post spending hangovers. These rosy reports are like icing on a rotten cake. It may look pretty, but you can't ingest it without suffering serious consequences.
Happy Hunting. The bears have go into hibernation for the short interim so bag what you can.

[UpInArms]

36. Morning AnneD!

I'm so sorry you were mugged!

ACK!!!!

Glad that you are okay - and am concerned that the holidays may really bring out the worst in some people :(

[AnneD]

86. We got off easy..could have been worse...

I pointed the guys out to my daughter(as suspicious)when we were getting out of the car-so it was a good lesson for her. Teens tend not to take your admonitions seriously. We just didn't make it inside soon enough. Just a few scrapes, bumps, bruises, and one jammed finger. Material stuff is just that....stuff and not important. The schmucks won't bother coming around soon-it was too much work.

[EuroObserver]

84. Sorry to hear that AnneD

But such seems increasingly to be the mood in many marketplaces these days...

[loudsue]

87. Good grief, AnneD! How terribly traumatic!!

I sure hope everything is ok now. That's the stuff nightmares are made of!

:hug: Take care of yourself! :hug:

[AnneD]

91. I am concerned about my daughter....

but I am doing fine. I am setting a good example for her. Guess being a nurse really toughens you up-I have seen far worse. I just got a pen-my flair-that says I have survived damn near everything. I feel entitled to wear it now, esp when I tally up what I HAVE survived.

[UpInArms]

43. Retailers pressured after Black Friday

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={CCA24417-4867-49E3-ABBA-0EABFF359110}&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Department-store retailers Kohl's Corp. and Federated Department Stores Inc. led the march south Monday as investors absorbed the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season.

The S&P Retail Index ($RLX) was off nearly 1% at 466.71 points.

The early summation of the weekend shopping spree found that consumers were out in hordes Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and spending. But they bought mostly discounted item, which could lead to profit-margin pressures later.

Discounters and big-box retailers did best and department and specialty retailers were under pressure.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Nov 28	10:00 AM	Existing Home Sales	Oct	-	7.30M	7.20M	7.28M	-

[UpInArms]

29. Housing Bubble Popping

9:59am 11/28/05 U.S. HOUSING MARKET HAS PEAKED, NAR ECONOMIST SAYS

9:59am 11/28/05 U.S. OCT. EXISTING HOME INVENTORY UP 3.5% TO 2.87MLN

9:59am 11/28/05 U.S. MEDIAN HOME SALES PRICE UP 16.6% Y-O-Y TO $218,000

9:59am 11/28/05 U.S. OCT. EXISTING HOME SALES FALL 2.7% TO 7.09MLN PACE

[UpInArms]

30. Existing home sales fall 2.7% in Oct.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF6022A6A%2D5C02%2D441A%2D8EFE%2D2905FE1EE567%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of existing U.S. homes dropped 2.7% in October, signalling that the sizzling housing market has peaked, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

Existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 7.09 million from a revised 7.29 million in September. Economists were expecting a smaller decline in October to about 7.20 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

The number of unsold homes on the market rose 3.5% to 2.87 million, the most in nearly 20 years. The inventory represents a 4.9-month supply at the current sales rate, the most in more than two years.

The median sales price has risen 16.6% in the past year to $218,000. It's the fastest price appreciation since July 1979, when inflation was raging at double-digit rates.

The drop in sales and rise in inventories in October "signals that the housing sector has likely passed its peak," said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group. Read the full report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. more info:

Sales fell in all four regions in October, led by a 7.4% decline in the Northeast.

Sales of condos fell 4.4% to an annual rate of 862,000, while single-family home sales dropped 2.5% to 6.23 million.

[UpInArms]

37. Home sales slow (surprised economists)

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/28/news/economy/homesales/

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The pace of home sales slowed more than economists' expectations in October, according to the latest reading showing a softening of the nation's real estate market.

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of previously owned homes fell to an annual rate of 7.09 million in October, down from the revised 7.29 million pace in September. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast that sales would slip to a 7.20 million rate in October.

Still the drop was from the second strongest month in history. October's sales rate would have been a record as recently as March of this year.

<snip>

The Realtor's own report didn't dispute it, although it predicted that the slowdown would be a gentle one, rather than the popping of a real estate "bubble" feared by some economists.

...more...

[Zynx]

39. A 16.6% year over year increase in median prices(that means the middle 50%

and up have increased 16.6% or more) is a clear sign that a bubble exists and rapidly rising inventory like this is a clear sign that the bubble will soon burst. While the prices may have been fueled in part by a temporary supply shortage, the supply shortage will be corrected and prices will have to correct just like in any commodity.

[UpInArms]

67. expanding on your subject:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&refer=top_world_news&sid=aRyq1_LKolwk

excerpt:

Housing affordability, already at a 14-year low last quarter, will continue to drop and deprive the economy of a source of strength in coming months, economists said. Today's report showed the median price rose about 17 percent over the past year to $218,000, the biggest jump in 26 years. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 6 percent in October and has kept rising since then.

``The peak in home sales activity is behind us,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. ``So far, it's a gentle trek down.'' Housing ``will present a drag for the economy,'' DeKaser said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

59. Housing Market Showing Signs of Slowdown, Report Says

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/28/business/28cnd-econ.html?pagewanted=print

Sales of existing homes fell in October from their second-highest level ever the month before and the inventory of houses and condominiums on the market rose to their highest level in more than two years, an industry trade group reported today.

In another indication of a modest slowdown in the booming housing market, the National Association of Realtors said that home sales fell to an annual pace of 7.09 million from 7.29 million in September. In October, there were enough homes for sale to keep the market supplied for 4.9 months, the most since June 2003.

<snip>

The report also appears to confirm the anecdotal reports from real estate agents and others that homes were taking longer to sell, a fact that portends a decline in sales and prices in the coming months, economists said. The inventory increase in condominiums and co-ops, of which there was a 5.5 month supply in October, up from 5.1 months in September, has been particularly sharp in recent months. There was a 4.8 month supply of single-family homes, up from 4.5 months.

"The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale," Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients. "There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace."

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Merck to cut 7,000 jobs, slash costs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T130315Z_01_N28238882_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-MERCK-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Merck & Co Inc. (MRK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it will cut 7,000 jobs and close five plants in a bid to save up to $4 billion in costs by 2010, the first steps by its chief executive to revive the drugmaker's fortunes.

Merck, which has struggled with patent expirations of key drugs and ongoing litigation over the withdrawal of its Vioxx pain medicine, said the job cuts would reduce its workforce by 11 percent globally by 2008.

<snip>

About $2 billion of the cost savings will result from the implementation of a new supply strategy at its manufacturing division, which Merck said would create a leaner, more cost-effective and customer-focused manufacturing model over the next three years.

Merck sees about half of its planned job cuts in the United States, and said will also close one basic research site and two preclinical development sites by the end of 2008, subject to compliance with legal obligations.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Drugmaker to close or sell five of 31 plants

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B69876B46%2D6F09%2D432A%2DA3C5%2D35ED7BD51AFE%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Merck & Co. confirmed Monday plans to implement a global restructuring, which will include the elimination of 7,000 jobs by the end of 2008 and the closing or divestment of five manufacturing plants.

The stock, part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was up 27 cents at $31.25 on thin volume in pre-market electronic trading.

<snip>

On Saturday, Merck in a prepared statement said management was "carefully considering a variety of options to help improve our core business fundamentals and ultimately position Merck to meet the challenges the company faces now and in the future."

Merck has "committed to provide details about our plans as well as milestones and metrics that can be used to evaluate our progress against them by the end of the year, and we will," according to the statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. Merck to cut 7,000 jobs, slash costs; shares fall

Maybe the magic bullet of cutting jobs is starting to lose its glow to shareholders?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T162612Z_01_N28238882_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-MERCK-UPDATE-3.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it will cut 7,000 jobs and close five plants to save up to $4 billion in costs by 2010, but shares fell on disappointment in the scope of the measures and their limited ability to help earnings next year.

Merck said its profit next year will fall at least 4.4 percent, hurt by the mid-year patent expiration in the United States on its Zocor cholesterol fighter.

Shares of Merck fell more than 4 percent in morning trading.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Japan to close tax loophole exploited by foreigners

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T083849Z_01_T206214_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-TAX.XML

TOKYO, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Tokyo is aiming to close a loophole in its tax code that foreign companies have used to avoid paying taxes on corporate bonds issued to finance their businesses in Japan, a Finance Ministry official said on Monday.

The move comes as Japan, faced with huge public debt and strained finances, struggles to get its fiscal house in order.

"We will start various discussions on the issue so that we can implement steps to prevent their tax evasion within two or three years," the MOF official told Reuters.

No data is available on how much tax has been avoided by foreign firms and nonresident investors taking advantage of a gap between domestic laws and international tax treaties, and which the MOF official said was impossible to estimate but was "a lot."

<snip>

Foreign companies can get around the tax required by the treaties by issuing bonds in tax-haven countries such as the Cayman Islands with which Japan has no treaty, and nonresident investors can do the same by purchasing those bonds.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Momentum trades carry stocks, gold, dlr higher

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-28T134144Z_01_L28759484_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-4.XML

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Bullish investors pushed stocks, gold and the U.S. dollar to multi-year highs on Monday, riding momentum trades that have flourished on the back of solid global growth and confidence that risks remain contained.

Euro zone government bonds dipped, giving back some recent gains after their best week since June, despite German consumer confidence data showing sentiment in Europe's largest economy is likely to remain weak.

U.S. stocks were set for a firmer start, with retailers in focus after reporting a surge in sales over the key Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend.

Stocks globally have enjoyed a blockbuster month in November as more and more investors have piled into strongly trending markets for equities and other favoured assets including the dollar and precious metals.

<snip>

Gold powered higher, coming to within a whisker of $500 an ounce in Asian trade, its highest since late 1987 and up 16 percent for the year. Platinum <XPT=> hit a near-26-year peak.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Treasurys ease as stocks gain on weekend retail results

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38684.3633909259-852436871&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices slipped, nosing yields higher, Monday, as expected stock gains meant investors snubbed lower-risk alternatives. A report on home resales was expected to show only some moderation, leaving activity at historically high levels. Trading was also described as lackluster ahead of a flurry of economic data coming later in the week, including the routinely market-moving jobs report on Friday. The benchmark 10-year note was last 3/32 lower at 100 15/32. That shaved from its value less than $1.25 per each $1,000 worth of securities. The note was yielding ($TNX) 4.44% compared to a four-week low of 4.43% Friday.

[UpInArms]

28. Printing Press Report:Fed adds temporary reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T144810Z_01_N28250544_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.00 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

44. Printing Press Report: U.S. to sell $20 billion 14-day cash bills

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T160625Z_01_WAT004464_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-CASH-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $20 billion of 14-day cash management bills on Tuesday.

The bills will be issued on Dec. 1 and mature on Dec. 15.

The maximum recognized bid at a single rate is $7 billion. The net long reporting threshold for the bills is $7 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received by 11:00 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) and competitive bids by 11:30 a.m. EST (1630 GMT).

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Printing Press Report:U.S. Treasury to sell $20 bln bills on Tuesday(4wk)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T160245Z_01_WAT004463_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday said it will sell $20 billion of four-week bills on Tuesday, Nov. 29.

The four-week bills will be issued on Dec. 1.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund about $15 billion of publicly held bills maturing Dec. 1 and to raise new cash of about $5 billion.

The bills mature Dec. 29. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $7.0 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received before 12:00 noon EST (1700 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. US Fed's Ferguson-Market stress may impact policy

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T150930Z_01_WAT004461_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FERGUSON-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Central banks may consider moving interest rates if financial stresses on markets or institutions put financial stability at risk, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said in a speech released on Monday.

If central bank monitoring of financial stability "suggests that the operations of some institutions or markets are under significant strain and, importantly, that the resulting pressures on businesses and households could have a material adverse effect on the real economy, the central bank may want to respond by adjusting the stance of monetary policy," he said in the text of a Nov. 8 speech.

Ferguson gave the speech in Frankfurt to the Fourth Joint Central Bank Research Conference on Risk Management and Systemic Risk. A text of the speech was released by the Fed in Washington on Monday.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

48. "pressures on businesses and households could have a material adverse

effect on the real economy"

I just wanted to emphasize that a bit :)

[UpInArms]

49. Treasuries mixed, housing froth starts to overflow

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-28T162113Z_01_N28389438_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mixed on Monday after a larger-than-expected decline in existing home sales for October failed to push benchmark yields below a key technical threshold.

Still, longer-dated debt retained their early gains as the data bolstered hopes for an end to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign.

Sales of existing U.S. homes slowed in October to a 7.09 million unit pace, down 2.7 percent from September's upwardly revised 7.29 million unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said.

Meanwhile, median home prices rose 16.6 percent from one year ago, the largest rise since July 1979 and plenty of fodder for those arguing for the existence of a housing market bubble.

"The fact that sales are coming down is not surprising because affordability has come down a lot lately," said David Berson, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

Some analysts say the Fed is still raising rates in order to rein in the home sales market, which boomed in part because of the central bank's own policy of prolonged rock-bottom borrowing rates.

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. US Treasury to issue currency report Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T173230Z_01_N28262232_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHINA-USA-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - A keenly awaited report by the U.S. Treasury on whether U.S. trade partners, including China, manipulate their currencies to gain an advantage in trade will be issued on Monday, the Treasury said.

Treasury International Affairs Undersecretary Tim Adams will hold a briefing on the report at 4 p.m. EST (2100 GMT), the Treasury Department said in a statement.

Interest is high because U.S. lawmakers have threatened to raise tariffs against Chinese imports in retaliation for a rising U.S. trade deficit with China that U.S. firms say stems from an unfair exchange rate.

A U.S. trade law requires the Treasury to assess, in a semiannual report, the exchange rates of major trading partners and to gauge whether they are unfair or restrict adjustments in the balance of payments between countries.

...more...

[UpInArms]

104. China is not currency manipulator: U.S. Treasury report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38684.6667645486-852469116&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- China does not meet the statutory definitions necessary to be designated a currency manipulator, the U.S. Treasury said in a report released Monday. China was able to avoid being labeled a manipulator because of its "initial step" towards a floating currency, said Treasury Secretary John Snow in a statement released alongside the report. But Snow warned China that the U.S. expects further reform of China's foreign exchange regime "as quickly as possible." Many members of Congress and U.S. manufacturers had wanted the Treasury to formally name China as a manipulator because it would be official endorsement of their view that China undervalues its currency for trade advantage.

4:00pm 11/28/05 SNOW: U.S. IS DOING ITS PART TO REDUCE GLOBAL IMBALANCES

4:00pm 11/28/05 SNOW: U.S. SHOULD NOT TEST LIMITS OF CURRENCT ACCOUNT GAP

4:00pm 11/28/05 SNOW SEES PROSPECTS FOR GOOD GLOBAL GROWTH IN 2006

4:00pm 11/28/05 CHINA FOREX REGIME STILL A DOLLAR PEG IN PRACTICE: TREASURY

4:00pm 11/28/05 SNOW: CHINA FOREX MOVES TO DATE TOO SLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT

4:00pm 11/28/05 SNOW: CHINA MUST TAKE MORE STEPS TO REVALUE YUAN

4:00pm 11/28/05 CHINA IS NOT CURRENCY MANIPULATOR: U.S. TREASURY REPORT

[54anickel]

106. BWAHAHAHAHA!....n/t

[UpInArms]

79. Treasuries climb as housing facade begins to crack (ck out the comments)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T185819Z_01_N28494358_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Monday after a larger-than-expected decline in October existing home sales bolstered hopes for an end to the Federal Reserve's campaign of rising interest rates.

Housing has been a primary driver of U.S. economic growth, so economists have worried that consumer spending would falter if Americans were to experience a dramatic decline in the value of their homes.

"Consumers have used their houses like cash machines," said Mary Ann Hurley, a senior Treasuries trader at D.A. Davidson & Co. "Once that evaporates, that's going to be yet another factor they have to deal with -- on top of high energy prices, tougher bankruptcy laws, and so on."

Already, consumers offered mixed signals over the past weekend, which marked the official start of the all-important holiday shopping season. Combined, November and December usually account for about a quarter of annual retail sales.

<snip>

Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting published last week were the icing on the cake, revealing a growing feeling within the central bank that an end to policy tightening might be in sight after more than a year of steady rate hikes.

...more...

[54anickel]

105. Good grief, more "but it's different this time" crap. They really are

reading that "Brave New World" and soaking it in!

But Fed officials have argued repeatedly that things are different this time around. Excess savings abroad and foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries are to blame, they claim, and the flat yield curve need not portend an economic soft patch.

However, many economists are skeptical of that theory, noting that this sort of argument has gotten the Fed in trouble before -- most recently when Fed Chief Alan Greenspan embraced talk of the "new economy," only to watch it fall apart in the stock market crash of 2000-2001.

[UpInArms]

23. GM and Delphi

9:03am 11/28/05 GM AGREES TO FOREGO 2006 PRICE REDUCTIONS ON DELPHI PARTS

9:04am 11/28/05 GM AGREES TO PROVIDE INTERIM FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO DELPHI

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T141554Z_01_WEN5091_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-URGENT.XML

DETROIT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Bankrupt auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday that General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has agreed to temporarily forego previously agreed-upon price 2006 reductions on components.

Delphi also said it will accelerate its discussions with GM, its largest customer, regarding the parts maker's restructuring efforts.

Delphi in October filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. automotive history.

(edited to add link and blurb)

[UpInArms]

97. GM CEO Secures $4.6 Million Pension

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/11/28/102638.shtml

As General Motors slashes jobs, closes plants and battles to avoid bankruptcy, the company’s CEO has set up a retirement plan that will pay him at least $4.6 million a year – nearly twice his current salary.

G. Richard Wagoner, who the New York Post calls "the greediest, most undeserving CEO since Chainsaw Al Dunlap,” was named GM’s chief financial officer in 1992, when the company had a global payroll of 750,000 employees.

Under Wagoner’s command as CFO and, since 2000, CEO, the carmaker has seen its employees dwindle to 324,000.

Now the company has announced plans to cut 30,000 more jobs and close 12 North American plants, and Wagoner is denying rampant rumors that GM is preparing for file for bankruptcy protection.

The carmaker’s pension fund is under-funded by more than $45 billion, according to the Post. But Wagoner has nothing to worry about. He has a Supplemental Executive Retirement Plan, which allows a company to use after-tax dollars "that rightly belong to shareholders to shower riches on the CEO instead,” the Post reports.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Oil prices drop below 58 usd in New York; traders eye weather

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2005/11/28/afx2355375.html

LONDON (AFX) - Oil prices dropped heavily in New York but steadied in London, as traders kept a close eye on weather conditions in the northern hemisphere.

In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for January delivery rose eight cents to 55.09 usd per barrel in electronic dealing.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in January, dropped 1.12 usd to 57.59 usd per barrel compared to Wednesday's closing price.

New York's main contract fell heavily owing to traders in the US setting out to mirror losses for Brent late last week.

'The US NYMEX light crude futures were over a dollar lower, catching up with London after the two-day Thanksgiving holiday,' analysts at the Sucden brokerage firm said.

Oil prices fell last week, with markets deeming there to be adequate supplies of heating fuel during the northern hemisphere winter despite the onset of freezing weather in the region.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Jan Crude @ $58.16 bbl - Jan NatGas @ $11.59 mln btus

10:07am 11/28/05 JAN CRUDE FALLS 56C TO $58.16/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:07am 11/28/05 JAN NATURAL GAS DOWN 3C AT $11.59/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

53. Jan Crude @ $57.05 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $11.67 mln btusll

11:39am 11/28/05 JAN CRUDE DROPS $1.66, OR 2.8%, TO $57.05/BRL

11:39am 11/28/05 DEC NATGAS DOWN 37C, OR 3.2%, AT $11.67/MLN BTUS

11:39am 11/28/05 DEC HEATING OIL FALLS 2.8%; DEC UNLEADED GAS DOWN 2.4%

[UpInArms]

71. Jan Crude @ $56.90 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $11.06 mln btus

1:03pm 11/28/05 JAN CRUDE FALLS $1.81 TO $56.90/BRL, LOWEST SINCE NOV 18

1:03pm 11/28/05 DEC NATURAL GAS FALLS 4.8% TO $11.06/MLN BTUS

1:03pm 11/28/05 JAN NATURAL GAS DROPS 5.5% TO $11.39/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

25. pre-opening blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. The indices are still headed towards a higher start today. Although news on the corporate and economic fronts is light, the early bias remains decidedly bullish. With respect to the economic calendar, there's just one piece of data scheduled for release; at 10:00 ET, existing home sales for October (consensus 7.20 million) will hit the wires.

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. The cash market remains poised to open higher. Due in part to solid sales over the weekend, Wal-Mart (WMT) announced this morning that November same-stores sales will rise 4.3%. News from fellow Dow component Merck (MRK) lends some further upside: The company announced a restructuring program through which it expects to save $3.5 to $4 billion between 2006 and 2010. Merck also issued in-line FY05 and FY06 guidance.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Versus fair value, futures trade suggests an upside open for the cash market. Worries over consumer spending have been somewhat allayed this morning, as the National Retail Federation has reported a strong start to holiday sales. Weekend sales surged 22% over last year, with discount, electronics, and home-furnishing retailers faring best. In addition, crude's continued decline underpins the bullish bias. The commodity is currently 1.8% lower ($57.66 per barrel).

[UpInArms]

26. 9:36 EST LaLa Land opens without enthusiasm

Dow 10,942.59 +10.97 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,260.85 -2.16 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,267.26 -0.99 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.443 +0.12 (+0.27%)

NYSE Volume 77,904,000
Nasdaq Volume 82,744,000

[UpInArms]

35. 10:27 EST red numbers and blather

Dow 10,911.37 -20.25 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,246.17 -16.84 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,262.47 -5.78 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.420 -0.11 (-0.25%)

NYSE Volume 389,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 360,339,000

10:20AM: The Dow has fallen below the unchanged mark, joining the S&P and Nasdaq on negative turf. Under pressure on account of crude's decline ($58.07 per barrel), the Energy sector continues to fade. Its 1.4% loss has taken the broader market lower, and teams with losses levied by seven other sectors in stunting the indices. Industrials hover just over the flat line, and Telecom's 0.2% gain does little to counter more influential sectors' declines. Treasuries, meanwhile, have somewhat improved; the 10-year is now up four ticks to 4.41%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1149/1527, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 942/1538

10:00AM: The Dow has fallen below the unchanged mark, joining the S&P and Nasdaq on negative turf. Under pressure on account of crude's decline ($58.07 per barrel), the Energy sector continues to fade. Its 1.4% loss has taken the broader market lower, and teams with losses levied by seven other sectors in stunting the indices. Industrials hover just over the flat line, and Telecom's 0.2% gain does little to counter more influential sectors' declines. Treasuries, meanwhile, have somewhat improved; the 10-year is now up four ticks to 4.41%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1149/1527, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 942/1538

9:40AM: The stock market started the session flattly, with each of the indices in proximity of the flat line. Reports of solid post-Thanksgiving holiday sales have garnered early attention. According to the National Retail Federation, sales surged 22% to $27.9 billion, versus the year-ago period, over the weekend. Along that line, Wal-Mart (WMT) announced today that November same-store sales, aided by strong weekend sales, will increase 4.3%. For the entire 2005 holiday season, the NRF expects a 6% rise in spending.

[54anickel]

34. Bwahahaha! That toon is absolutely priceless today!!! Great find Ozy

I'm going to try and blow that one up in color, frame it and put it up with my Christmas decorations - right on the fireplace mantel. Maybe even include a copy in a few cards this year to my Republican friends! :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

40. 'Tis the season for layoffs

http://www.normantranscript.com/opinion/local_story_332001913?keyword=topstory

Besides the season of charity and good cheer, the year's third quarter is also the time for companies to trim their payrolls in hopes of making the quarter or even the year.

An Associated Press story published in Sunday's business section says there is no longer an enduring stigma to layoffs. Maybe not for the company. The individual employee suffers until the next job comes along which may be a while.

Companies routinely expand and contract depending on the bottom line. Few besides the affected workers remember the cuts so the stigma rarely carries through to the customer.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics says almost a third of the worker cuts come during the year's fourth quarter. For seven of the past nine years, according to the story, companies have announced more layoffs in the last quarter of the year than during other periods.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Auto parts plant to start layoffs today

http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=4170613&nav=4QcS

SYRACUSE, N.Y. An auto parts plant is expected to begin layoffs today.

The Syracuse Post Standard reports that New Process Gear in suburban DeWitt will lay off about 60 union and non-union workers.There could be even more layoffs in coming months as the plant copes with slow sales of new vehicles.New Process Gear says a combination of high gas and oil prices and an oversupply of vehicles are just part of the reason for the layoffs. Nearly two years ago, 174 workers were laid off.New Process Gear is the world's largest maker of four-wheel-drive transfer cases.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. 11:16 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,926.10 -5.52 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,248.23 -14.78 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,263.51 -4.74 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.406 -0.25 (-0.56%)

NYSE Volume 636,250,000
Nasdaq Volume 551,204,000

11:00AM: A lack of leadership prevents the indices from clearing the flat line. Utilities have recently rebounded, but its 0.1% gain and Telecom's 0.2% rise are having little effect. The price of crude has dropped even lower - now off 2.3% to $57.40 per barrel - but it's decline continues to have little impact outside of the Energy sector's (-1.3%) corresponding plunge. Homebuilders also stand as a sore spot, swinging lower after October existing home sales data reflected a 3.7% slise to a 7.09 million annual rate. This was below an expected 7.20 million rate, and is the lowest level since March of this year. This is perhaps further evidence that interest rates are starting to slow down economic growth. NYSE Adv/Dec 1086/1932, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 907/1874

and a peek at the buck

Last trade 91.78 Change -0.26 (-0.28%)

Settle 92.04 Settle Time 23:38

Open 92.17 Previous Close 92.04

High 92.31 Low 91.77

Last tick: 2005-11-28 10:26:24 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

52. Our Brave New World, Part Two

There was a thread this weekend about Bill Bonner sending a copy of his book, "Empire of Debt", to Bush, the Fed and Congress. That thread is here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1949175#1949264

I wonder if he didn't send it in response to the book Mauldin is discussing in this article titled "Our Brave New World". This book seems pretty scary to me, even worse, it seems like it reflects exactly the kind of thinking behind the goverments action these days.

Don't know what to make of it all, but I thank Bonner for attempting to get them to at least question this "New Economy" point of view which seems so perverse these days.

There's a lot covered here, too hard to snip all of the highlights. It gets into tax havens in the Caribbean, ending the "Welfare State", and monetary policy.

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo112505

snip>

Our Brave New World, Part Two

Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave, along with Anatole Kaletsky have written a brilliant and easily read 150 page book called Our Brave New World. You can read the first part of my review by going to the archives and reading the letter dated November 11. Dennis Gartman wrote yesterday in his daily commentary, after reading this book, that:

"Share are higher once again and we shall reiterate the comment made here yesterday that the markets are moving higher on the strength of the companies that our friends at GaveKal refer to as 'platforms.' Until proven wrong, the trend of tech-dominated NASDAQ is higher, while the trend of the GM's, Ford's, Alcoa's, US Steel's and the like are downward in broad terms. The 'platform' companies sell high margin design; the others sell low margin manufacturing. In the post-industrial age, we need to own the former and to be short of the latter.

"We were asked yesterday, 'Is this not a marked change from your often repeated trading dictum that you want to own the things that if dropped on your foot will hurt?" Our answer is 'Yes, unequivocally!' Our notion first put forth several years ago, and repeated almost ad nauseum in the months and years thereafter, that we wanted to own ships, and steel, and railroads, and coal and ball bearings and the like served us very, very well. However, upon reading Gave, Gave & Kaletsky's book Our Brave New World we have come to the simple understanding that, in the words of Lord Keynes, 'The facts have changed, and when the facts change, we change.' The 'facts' of the world have indeed changed, and we want to own design firms, software firms, pharmaceutical firms, firms that sell high end services, companies like IKEA (if it were public) that sell high end goods but have all of the manufacturing hoved off to the cheapest place of manufacture and can drive costs down while holding margins high. The facts have changed and we need to understand that."

Dennis is a very savvy trader. He does not lightly change his base philosophies. I was very surprised to read that statement. But this underscores my suggestion that this is an important book. You can get the book for $20 (shipped) at www.gavekal.com. It is an important book and I urge you to read it.

more...

[UpInArms]

55. Traders Scamming: Federated Investors to pay $72Million for Market Timing

11:40am 11/28/05 SEC: THREE FEDERATED INVESTORS AFFILIATES TO PAY $72 MLN

11:40am 11/28/05 SETTLEMENT RELATES TO MARKET TIMING, LATE TRADING CHARGES

11:40am 11/28/05 SEC: FEDERATED INVESTORS, OTHERS AGREE TO $72M SETTLEMENT

Federated Invs Inc Pa Website Annual Report
1001 Liberty Avenue Federated Investors Tower Phone: [phone]
Pittsburgh PENNSYLVANIA 15222-3779

Fax: [phone]


Federated Investors Incorporated. The Group's principal activities are to offer investment advisory, administrative, distribution and other services. The other services provided by the Group, relating to mutual funds include trade execution, clearing and retirement plan record keeping These services are rendered to federated mutual funds, separately managed accounts and other federated sponsored products. The customers of the Group also include corporations and private investment advisory accounts. The Group serves both domestic and international markets. As on 31-Dec-2003, the Group provided investment advisory services to 136 Group-sponsored funds through banks, broker/dealers and other financial intermediaries.

[UpInArms]

61. Federated, Spitzer settle $100 million mutual fund probe

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--mutualfunds-spitz1128nov28,0,6591769.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Federated Investors Inc. has agreed to settle a state and federal investigation into improper mutual fund trading and pay $100 million in restitution and penalties, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said Monday.

"With this agreement, virtually the entire mutual fund industry has now sworn off improper trading practices and agreed to compensate investors who were harmed," Spitzer said of the settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

<snip>

The investigation of the company focused on mutual fund timing by insiders that can hurt long term mutual fund shareholders by reducing their shares' value.

Spitzer accused Federated of secret market timing with three trading groups, knowing it gave an unfair advantage to the groups over individual investors. There were other agreements that Federated failed to stop, Spitzer said. Federated collected "substantial" fees on the traders' assets as a result of the dealing, Spitzer said.

Spitzer said Federated secretly allowed Canary to make more than $1.6 billion in timing transactions. Canary, in exchange, made a "sticky money" investment for $10 million in a Federated-advised fund. Federated then collected additional fees.

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. more info:

http://www.forbes.com/business/2003/09/03/cx_aw_0903spitzer.html

As regulators and litigators turn their sites to the $7 trillion (total assets) mutual fund industry, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has found his canary. And that bird's song, part of a 44-page complaint revealed today, could open the door for more inquiries into the companies that oversee mutual funds.

Spitzer's office spent the past few months investigating Secaucus, N.J.-based hedge fund Canary Capital Partners. The investigation into Canary concluded Wednesday morning with the firm, run by Edward J. Stern, has agreed to fork over $40 million related to illegal mutual fund trades. The trading tactics used by Stern guided the fund to market-beating returns from mid-1998 to the end of 2002. According to the complaint, Stern used prohibited "market timing" and "late trading" tactics to game certain mutual funds. But what comes as a surprise is the extent to which the evidence points to complicity by the asset managers and trade processors on the inner workings of each mutual fund.

The complete terms of the settlement have not yet been issued, but Canary Capital has agreed to continue to cooperate with the Attorney General's continuing investigation into mutual fund practices. Stern and Canary representatives could not be reached. Spitzer's office has not yet finalized a consent decree.

The complaint alleges that one of Stern's schemes involved various Nations Funds, advised by Banc of America Capital Management, a unit of Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ). Trading through a platform provided by Phoenix-based Security Trust Co., Stern bought fund shares after market close, but at prices that hadn't yet factored in underlying stock moves from the day's activity. Fund purchases made after market close are supposed to reflect that day's activity and, therefore, priced at the next day's net asset value. By buying at old prices, and selling the next day or later, Stern locked in a guaranteed gain. Stern also used market timing to take advantages of price discrepancies for stocks traded on more than one international exchange.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. United States: Bull market about to peak?

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/27/news/bxus28.php#

NEW YORK If past indicators are any guide, the rally that has propelled the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and Nasdaq composite index to four-year highs should be nearing its end.

The U.S. bull market that began in October 2002 has lasted almost one year longer than the average since World War II, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is about nine months away from its average slowing point in past expansions, according to Leuthold Group, based in Minneapolis.

"The stock market turns down six to eight months before the economy," said Andrew Engel, a senior research analyst at Leuthold. "We're concerned about the stock market and about as defensive as we can get."

Stocks gained last week for the fifth consecutive week amid speculation that the Federal Reserve might soon stop raising U.S. interest rates. Aiding the climb were a drop in oil prices and growing consumer confidence, improving the outlook for holiday sales.

...more...

[54anickel]

75. Uhmmmm, what Bull market? It's been pretty flat on average, just

meandering range-bound, more like buffalo roaming than bull running. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

58. 12:05 EST numbers and dated blather

Dow 10,925.38 -6.24 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,248.62 -14.39 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,263.26 -4.99 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.400 -0.31 (-0.70%)

NYSE Volume 839,806,000
Nasdaq Volume 711,262,000

11:25AM: Little has changed within the equity market, but relative strength in Alcoa (AA 27.98 +0.46), General Motors (GM 23.28 +0.42), and McDonald's (MCD 34.07 +0.61) has helped offset broad-based declines and limited the Dow's slide. With respect to GM, the are reports that the company is intervening to support Delphi on an interim basis by foregoing price reductions for 2006, and that they are working with Delphi and the UAW in order to avert a Delphi strike. While this will involve some cost to GM, Deutsche Bank noted that, on the plus side, GM will likely avoid a potentially devastating shut-down of its North American operations. The firm believes that news of GM's involvement in this matter will be perceived as a modest positive for GM. Currently, shares are up about 1.8%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1134/1922, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 930/1895

[stepnw1f]

63. Quick Question Looking for a Simple Answer

Regarding the DOW, why are the numbers so high? Where is this money coming from?

[UpInArms]

66. (jmho) I think you can find that answer in 2 words:

(well, actually 3)

hedge funds

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051019_1613_db016.htm

excerpt:

Why does there suddenly seem to be so much hedge-fund fraud?
The industry's dizzying growth is a big factor. Over the past five years, the number of hedge funds has doubled, to more than 8,000, as have assets under management, to $1 trillion, according to Hedge Fund Research.

The more funds, the greater the likelihood that some fund managers will cheat. Stiffer competition is putting pressure on managers to take bigger risks. And big securities firms, eager to win trading business from hedge funds, may be more aggressive -- and less diligent -- in their dealings with hedge clients

Why have hedge funds escaped regulation?
For years, it was accepted wisdom that the wealthy investors who put their money into hedge funds didn't need the full protections of federal securities laws. Only "accredited investors" -- individuals with a minimum of $200,000 in annual income or minimum net assets of $1 million -- could buy into hedge funds.

But over time, inflation put that wealth threshold within reach of many unsophisticated investors. And indirectly, the retirement savings of teachers, firefighters, and millions more ordinary Americans have been funneled into hedge funds, as investment managers for pension plans hunt for higher returns than they can get in stock and bond markets.

...more...

derivatives

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f974790e-5790-11da-b7ea-00000e25118c.html

The use of privately-traded derivatives reached a record in the first half of this year with the notional amount of outstanding trades worth $270,000bn, the Bank for International Settlements said on Thursday.

Dealing in credit derivatives jumped particularly sharply but there was also strong growth in equity and commodity instruments.

...more only for subscribers...

Derivatives disaster, hedge fund monsters?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_111405.html

excerpt:

Hedge fund growth has been equally phenomenal. Since 1996 to 2004 hedge funds grew four times from roughly $200 billion to over $800 billion in capital. Today there are over 8000 hedge funds and they have grown to over $1 trillion. The number of hedge funds has more than doubled since 1999. LTCM was a highly leveraged hedge fund estimated to have had at its peak capital of $4.8 billion, a portfolio of $200 billion and derivatives of $1.2 trillion. Incredible leverage. Hedge funds are expected to grow even further to an estimated $3 trillion by 2010.

Hedge funds are unregulated. Numerous hedge funds are run in off-shore banking centres such as the Cayman Islands in order to avoid regulation. So why would individuals, pension funds, banks and others risk their money in hedge funds? Simple, returns that have consistently exceeded those available in the markets through traditional investments in stocks and bonds and certainly better than the returns generated by mutual funds. Unlike traditional investments hedge funds carry out any number of strategies from conservative convertible bond arbitrage to actively managed long-short funds, convergence plays and managed futures using huge leverage. Many of the largest hedge funds are run by former bank/investment bank dealers who left often with the blessing of their former employer. Many of the same funds would then be placed with the hedge funds and the banks provide the leverage capital to allow the hedge funds to grow even faster in a more unregulated environment.

The hedge funds employ derivatives as well in their strategies making them excellent counter parties with the banks. As we noted many of the hedge fund dealers were former employees of the banks themselves. Fees are extremely lucrative. In an era when brokerage commissions have fallen as have fees from corporate finance, the fees generated from hedge funds are extremely lucrative. Management fees of 2% and 20% payouts on profits are not unusual. Many of the funds have stringent lock up periods as well. Oddly though as the hedge fund business has mushroomed returns have actually declined but still remain ahead of traditional bond/equity funds.

Because of the huge size of the hedge funds coupled with the huge capital available to dealers like Goldman Sachs these funds are often over half the daily trading in the equity markets. These firms can if they wish move the Dow Jones 300 points if they so please using a wide array of futures, options, ETF's and other leveraged hybrids. These firms are exempt from up-tick rules and margin requirements. Front running orders are not uncommon. Many of the firms are also responsible for the huge market buy/sell programmes whether it comes intra-day or "market on close".

...more...

[54anickel]

69. Pensions pour billions into hedge funds?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/27/markets/pensions_hedgefunds/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Pension plans that are facing a growing number of retirees are seeking bigger returns by pouring billions of dollars into hedge funds, investments that may be risky, a news report said Sunday.

The New York Times, citing a study by Bank of New York and the consulting firm Casey, Quirk & Associates, said that pension plans and other large institutions are expected to invest as much as $300 billion in hedge funds by 2008, up from just $5 billion a decade ago.

The pension plans, whose sole purpose, by law, is to pay out predetermined benefits to retired workers, are attracted by hedge funds' promise of richer or more consistent returns.

snip>

The report also noted that there's been a push in Congress for amendments to make it easier for hedge funds to manage even more pension money without having to comply with the federal law governing company pensions.

more...


Could hedge funds hurt the U.S.?

The money invested worldwide now dwarfs the GDP of many developed countries. Isn't that risky?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/22/markets/hedge_funds/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Do hedge funds harm or help the economy?

That question was raised recently not by concerned regulators or central bankers but by one of the most famously successful hedge fund managers in the world.

Speaking at a forum on the capital markets in New York last week, David Shaw, whose D.E. Shaw firm runs about $19 billion in assets, noted that the total pool of assets run by firms described as hedge funds stands at an estimated $1.3 trillion world wide -- bigger than the gross domestic product of many countries and large enough to move markets around the world.

But could the combined capital of some funds actually swing the markets in ways that could hurt you?

"The short answer is, I don't know. Nobody knows," said Andrew Lo, direction of the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering and a principal at the hedge fund Alpha Simplex Group. "The reason for that is, we don't have enough data on the particular exposures we need to measure to answer that question."

more...

[EuroObserver]

95. Lotta little people gonna get badly burned (again) n/t

[UpInArms]

70. 1:03 EST sliding deeper into the red

Dow 10,904.80 -26.82 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,241.86 -21.15 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,260.23 -8.02 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396 -0.35 (-0.79%)

NYSE Volume 1,040,825,000
Nasdaq Volume 882,839,000

12:55PM: More of the same for equities, as continued consolidation leaves the indices with modest losses. While the Dow and S&P have been in the red all day, blue chips are still outperforming mid and small caps today. The S&P is currently off 0.5%, and the Dow is down 0.1%, compared with a 1.2% decline in the S&P 400 Midcap average and the Russell 2000's 1.3% slide. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has given up 0.7% today. NYSE Adv/Dec 1230/1928, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 979/1942

12:30PM: More of the same for equities, as continued consolidation leaves the indices with modest losses. While the Dow and S&P have been in the red all day, blue chips are still outperforming mid and small caps today. The S&P is currently off 0.5%, and the Dow is down 0.1%, compared with a 1.2% decline in the S&P 400 Midcap average and the Russell 2000's 1.3% slide. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has given up 0.7% today. NYSE Adv/Dec 1230/1928, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 979/1942

and the buck

Last trade 91.50 Change -0.54 (-0.59%)

Settle 92.04 Settle Time 23:38

Open 92.17 Previous Close 92.04

High 92.31 Low 91.43

Last tick: 2005-11-28 11:54:27 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[AnneD]

78. Bear sticks nose out of cave...

sniffs air. These guys want their end of year bonus. IMHO the bear will come out of the cave later next month-hopefully after these guys cash their checks.

[54anickel]

72. Hey UIA, what pushed the buck off the cliff just before noon?

Last trade 91.52 Change -0.52 (-0.56%)

Settle 92.04 Settle Time 23:38

Open 92.17 Previous Close 92.04

High 92.31 Low 91.43
Last tick: 2005-11-28 12:28:20 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

77. it may have been several factors, but I think the main one

was the Fedspeak that said it was worried about markets impacting policy - then the housing report came in really soft and boom - the buck dropped.

[54anickel]

83. The Fed hinting at letting up on the rate increases again? That's

not gonna leave Chopper Ben much of a cushion when he takes the helm, is it?

[RawMaterials]

73. It will cost your true love 6.1% more

Estimated price of '12 Days of Christmas' gift list up sharply due to gas, gold prices and bird flu.






http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/28/news/funny/holiday_12days_pricetag/index.htm

[54anickel]

74. Hey, how come the only increase in labor costs is the Ladies Dancing?

Maybe the Lords, Pipers and Drummers should join a union?

Seems to be low demand for turtle doves as well. Maybe they're getting a bad rap being associated with that "sign of peace" dove?

[loudsue]

96. LOL!! There are more rich repukes going to those nudie dancing bars

You know....family values guys. They're having to pay a LOT more these days to keep those ladies dancing on their laps!! :rofl:

:kick::kick::kick:

[EuroObserver]

98. The ladies got well organized some good time ago, hah! n/t

[UpInArms]

80. 2:24 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,897.76 -33.86 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,242.95 -20.06 (-0.89%)
S&P 500 1,259.62 -8.63 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.394 -0.37 (-0.84%)

NYSE Volume 1,347,068,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,110,553,000

2:00PM: Since the last comment, little has changed within the stock market. On account of wide-spread selling, the Consumer Discretionary sector continues to suffer and levies a loss second to only Energy's -3.0%. Homebuilders (CTX, PHM, KBH, LEN) and department stores (FD, DDS, KSS, JCP, JWN, SHLD) have been the weakest links, imposing -2.8% and -2.7%, respectively. The retail group has given up 1.4%, with virtually none of the S&P's retail issues managing to find footing today.NYSE Adv/Dec 1116/2135, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 925/2092

1:25PM: Heading further south, the major averages are unable to find much support in the 0.8% gain that the Telecommunications sector offers, as losses proffered by the other nine sector far outweigh it. Within that part of the market, SBC (SBC 25.24 +0.47) outperforms and has risen about 2%. While the session's bias remains decidedly bearish, there are several bright spots. IT consulting and services (UIS) has jumped 4%, aluminum (AA) is 2% higher, airlines (LUV) has notched about 1.5%, and gold (NEM) has gained about 1.4%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1134/2088, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 916/2080

Last trade 91.37 Change -0.67 (-0.73%)

Settle 92.04 Settle Time 23:38

Open 92.17 Previous Close 92.04

High 92.31 Low 91.36

Last tick: 2005-11-28 13:13:56 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

88. The Case of the Missing Petro-Dollars (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051128-mon.html#anchor0

As disruptive as they have been, the oil shocks of the past have all had a silver lining: A significant portion of the revenue windfall accruing to oil producers -- especially those in the Middle East -- has been recycled back into dollar-denominated assets. In earlier oil shocks, the flows associated with these “petro-dollars” have been sizable enough to have contained the damage to US interest rates and to the interest-rate-sensitive components of the US economy. The energy shock of 2005 is different. While sharply higher oil prices may have generated close to a $300 billion revenue windfall for Middle East oil producers, the reflow back into dollars through the petro-dollar effect is largely missing in action.

That conclusion came through loud and clear in my recent trip to the Middle East. While I only spent a few days in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, I had the opportunity to gather views from a large group of decision makers who attended our second annual Middle East institutional investor conference. That conference, in conjunction with a number of private meetings, exposed me to a broad cross-section of investors, businessmen, and government officials from all of the region’s major oil-producing states. They were emphatic and virtually unanimous in stressing several reasons why the financial recycling of this oil shock is very different from shocks of the past:

snip>

· Fifth, there is deepening concern over the dollar outlook in the Middle East. Despite this year’s rally following nearly three years of decline, most of the asset allocators I spoke with felt there was more to come on the downside. Like me, their concerns are mainly an outgrowth of America’s massive and ever-widening external imbalance. The Middle East “house view” on the dollar is yet another consideration that probably inhibits petro-dollar recycling of the recent windfall of oil revenues.

snip>

There could well be broader macro implications of this development. Many have cited the petro-dollar effect as a key reason behind the dollar’s surprising strength in 2005. The above arguments strongly suggest this line of reasoning is not well founded. Others believe that repatriation of some $500 billion of eligible overseas profits back into the US under the Homeland Investment Act may have been an important factor. Stephen Li Jen, head of our currency team, believes that, at most, only about $100 billion of the repatriated profits is “currency relevant” -- that is, either unhedged or not held in dollars. This is a relatively puny amount for global foreign exchange markets with daily turnover now in excess of $2 trillion. By process of elimination, that leaves the US capital inflow story -- and perhaps the fate of the US dollar -- more in the hands of “natural” dollar buyers such as private portfolio investors and foreign central banks. And, of course, in those quarters, the macro debate still rages.

more...

[UpInArms]

92. 3:27 EST redder numbers and blather

Dow 10,885.43 -46.19 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,240.33 -22.68 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,257.77 -10.48 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 4.406 -0.25 (-0.56%)

NYSE Volume 1,647,871,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,327,607,000

2:30PM: Hitting new lows for the day, the indices remain well below the unchanged mark. The bond market, on the other hand, continues to stand strong. There are many moving parts contributing to that market's advance: There is month-end (and in some cases, year-end) activity going through; the morning's home sales data reflected a 3.7% decline that perhaps points towards the Fed's tightening cycle's impact on economic growth, and the comments within the FOMC minutes last week serve as an ongoing support. Presently, the 10-year is up ten ticks and yielding 4.39%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1169/2090, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 946/2086

personal note: UIA is doing the happy dance over the resignation of one of the crooks and corrupt GOPpiggies in Congress - Randy Cunningham is out after pleading GUILTY to TAX EVASION and BRIBERY!

:woohoo:

Now if we can just get all the rest of them out on their arses and into prison!

[54anickel]

94. Heh-heh, will he get a "do -over" like Duncan did? Good to hear he's

getting nailed. I was afraid things like tax evasion and bribery were beginning to be looked upon as virtues.

[UpInArms]

99. stocks in retail (Squal-Mart) fall because investors fear profit loss

from the cut-rate pricing to get people in the door :D

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-28T203036Z_01_N28274481_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-9.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday as a bigger-than-expected drop in a gauge of home sales had investors worried that a slowdown in housing would shake consumer confidence and a drop in oil prices weighed on energy shares.

In the final hour of trading, Nasdaq Composite index fell 1 percent.

<snip>

Despite an initially strong start to holiday shopping, shares of retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were among the biggest decliners amid concerns that retailers may be sacrificing profit margins to increase store traffic.

...more...

[54anickel]

102. Hey, but I thought that's the way to do it in this Brave New World

slash those prices and make profits on big volumes! Isn't that what endeared Squal-mart to investors to begin with? Get with the program people!!!

[ozymandius]

107. closing numbers

Dow 10,890.72 -40.90 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,239.37 -23.64 (-1.04%)
S&P 500 1,257.46 -10.79 (-0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 44.06 -0.25 (-0.56%)
NYSE Volume 1,983,329,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,586,158,000

blather to come...