I've been doing Iraq Front News (
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/IraqFrontNews) for over 2 years, and this seems the inescapable conclusion.
In a nutshell:
Cheney declares insurgency in its "last throes" against all evidence;
AEI and NR run cover stories on how "we've won the day";
May was the "declaring victory" part. Immediately following was the "leaving" part.
The Brits have handed over Basra.The US has handed over Najaf, Kerbala, and Diyala province. More handovers are imminent. (Meanwhile, of course, whole Baghdad neighborhoods are controlled by the insurgency.)In spite of handing over cities to local strongmen, US troop losses continue to trend upward; stated simply: we are losing.Gen. Barry McCaffrey declares "Americans are walking away from this war" and proclaims that we have to withdraw by summer 2006 to prevent permanent damage to the military. The war is logistically unsupportable.The current trend of Bush approval numbers puts him in Nixon territory by March 2006. Fear of losing control of Congress and the resulting impeachment drives the GOP to drastically change course. There's more; check out the site. The upshot is that we will be mostly, if not entirely, out of Iraq by the end of next year. Honorably or not, we are leaving.