Fear of Flu Outbreak Rattles Washington ... NYT

[RedEarth]

Fear of Flu Outbreak Rattles Washington
By GARDINER HARRIS
WASHINGTON, Oct. 4 - Health officials have warned for years that a virulent bird flu could kill millions of people, but few in Washington have seemed alarmed. After a closed-door briefing last week, however, fear of an outbreak swept official Washington, which was still reeling from the poor response to Hurricane Katrina.

The day after the briefing, led by Michael O. Leavitt, the secretary of Health and Human Services, and other senior government health officials, the Senate squeezed $3.9 billion for flu preparations into a Pentagon appropriations bill.

On Wednesday, Senate Democrats plan to introduce another bill calling for the creation of a flu pandemic coordinator within the White House and a federal buy-back program for unused flu vaccines, among other measures, according to a draft of the bill. Its authors include the Senate minority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada; Senator Barack Obama of Illinois; and Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts.

Thirty-two Democratic senators sent a letter to President Bush on Tuesday expressing "grave concern that the nation is dangerously unprepared for the serious threat of avian influenza."

Mr. Bush spent a considerable part of his news conference Tuesday talking about the risks of an outbreak and the measures the administration is considering to combat one, including whether to use the military to enforce quarantines.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/politics/05flu.html?pagewanted=print

[WCGreen]

1. Well, the administration does like to talk alot about doing...

But I'd prefer someone else to to the doing....

[demigoddess]

2. I think this is all a bunch of hooey.

Every year the people who get the flu make the population more resistant to flu. One reason the spanish flu was so bad was because of the troop movements and people cooped up in ships for weeks on end. Also do you all remember the swine flu scare in the seventies. We still havent had an outbreak of swine flu yet. I seriously doubt it will ever happen. Ps. by the way, I have never had the flu, nor my kids, nor my siblings. So some people are immune.

[havocmom]

5. "So some people are immune" so far, perhaps.

But flu is virus and viruses tend to mutate quickly. Evolution happens. Don't count on luck to keep you healthy.

[murray hill farm]

7. head in sand wont help all that much, if it does hit.

just because u have never had the flu, does not mean u never will..and this one is not the same as those u have experienced in your lifetime...or the lifetime of you sibs. it also does not necessarily follow that since the swine flue was not a pandemic killer such as the one in 1918, that this one will be the same scenario. i think that the main thing to consider with this potential mass killer, is that...like the katrina, the govt response will be too little and too late...and like the victim's of the hurricanes, when it comes right down to it...u are on your own..which is another good reason, to stock up on canned food and water now..so if this..or some other killer catastrophe occurs...u will be prepared..and increase your chances to survive...and the chances for your family to survive. if this one does become pandemic, u will want to avoid stores, etc. where u will be easily exposed to it.

[UKCynic]

9. I doesn't work that way

You and your family who have never had flu are lucky, but unlikely to be immune. A new human flu is created when a person with old flu also gets infected by animal, usualy avian, flu and then passes it on. Avian flu is now starting to infect humans in SE Asia, it is only a matter of time. Resistance to the last flu virus is widespread, but does not give immunity to the new.

The 1918-19 pandemic was carried by the returning servicemen but was not in any way limited to them. It killed more people than the war, which it was instrumental in ending. The last I heard was twenty million and rising.

I have been researching the flu pandemic of 1558-59, known then as 'the new sickness'. It was so bad and so universal that it has left far less trace in the records than the bubonic plague outbreaks of the following decades. It could not be stopped, because it spread before the symptoms appeared. In many parts of England there was a complete collapse of local record keeping.

[uppityperson]

11. I'm concerned about flu this winter, esp after Katrina & fun flu facts

People are stressed more than usual, living in not very good and crowded conditions, traveling more than usual due to displacement, not a good mix.

The flu changes every yr, so what you get immune to is not the one that is going around.

The flu does not make you fly. Avian flu does not make you fly or grow feathers either :)

The flu is not diarrhea and vomitting. That is either food poisoning or another virus, but not influenza.

Influenza, aka "the flu", is a respiratory disease. I am sure you have heard people with that harsh cough, perhaps have even had it. Symptoms are feeling crappy (some worse than others), incuding fever and skin sensitivity (again, some less worse than others), followed by cold like symptoms (runny nose, eyes, some worse than others) and finally the cough which can go on for weeks.

It is easy to get pneumonia, lung infection, on top of the flu and this is one primary killer. People pass off the flu as a cold, as bronchitis, as other things. Bronchitis means an inflammation of your bronchial tubes, which is a symptom of the flu. You can have bronchitis from other things (other viruses and exposure to smoke causing irritation) but most frequently that harsh cough that lingers is after the flu.

Some people are hit harder than others. Some people are able to continue to work and go to school. Some of us stay home at the first signs to be as healthy and less stressed and not spread it around further. Sounds like you and your family has a good response to the virus.

[mike_c]

12. influenza is a very deadly virus....

Don't underestimate it. It mutates rapidly and recombines readily, so it always presents a moving immune system target. Some strains are highly virulent, others have high mortality rates, and some-- the worst-- combine virulence and high mortality. They are scythes that kill millions.

It is a mistake to dismiss the Spanish flu as an artifact of circumstances-- it really was an influenza variant that combined high virulence and mortality. Right now the avian flu appears to have exceedingly high mortality, but low human-to-human transmissibility. The data are not unequivical, and there are now several strains of avian flu, which makes it more difficult to predict what will happen, but there is little doubt that at least some strains have very high mortality rates, even when excellent medical care is provided. If one of those strains mutates or (more likely) recombines with another flu variant and acquires higher virulence among humans, the result could be catastrophic.

[kostya]

31. If you can say with certainty that none of your family has

ever been sick with any kind of flu-like symptoms, I might buy it, but there are many types of illnesses caused by virii that are influenza though we don't often recognize the symptoms as such since they aren't the classic fever, vomiting, etc.

Besides, I sure wouldn't publically state my immunity! Might jinx it!! :silly:

[BobRossi]

3. Thank God for Dems! nt

[gatorboy]

4. How soon people forget how prepared the Bush Admin was last year.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/05/news/midcaps/chiron/

Flu shot shortage looms

Chiron, vaccine maker that was to provide half of U.S. supply, forced to shut down British plant.
October 6, 2004: 6:41 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Public health officials predicted a flu vaccine shortage in the United States this season after Chiron Corp. said Tuesday it won't be able to make millions of doses of the vaccine due to problems at its British plant.
------------------------------------------

And Bush is the guy to save us this year? :eyes:

[northzax]

10. and what happened last year?

massive outbreaks of flu?

[UKCynic]

14. There's a special providence in the fall of a sparrow or chicken

'If it be now, 'tis not to come;
if it be not to come, it will be now;
if it be not now, yet it will come.
The readiness is all.'

Wrong context but the sense is right.

[northzax]

16. But every flu comes from an animal

be it pig or bird. And eventually one will hit that is worse than the others, simply a fact of life. But one hasn't hit in that way since the advent of modern medicine. Does that mean that there hasn't been a virus as virulent? or that modern medicine has helped to block the impact?

how many of the 1918 people would have been saved with anti-virals, IV fluids and antibiotics (yes, won'y help against the virus itself, but will block secondary infections) let alone better diets, cleaner living conditions and a more spread out population?

[Bridget Burke]

22. I'm sure our government is ready to help!

When an RSV epidemic can put a city's hospitals on drive-by status, how will the health care system deal with a more lethal virus? (RSV is usually manifested as "a cold".)

Anti-virals, IV's & antibiotics are expensive. Will all insurance plans cover them? What about the uninsured? If untreated, they will spread the flu. Will they be treated in a timely fashion or rounded up?

Better diets & cleaner living conditions are good for everyone. What if someone got cut off from food stamps--another thread covers cuts to social services. Are we really less spread out? I get the definite impression that many people have moved off the farms & into the cities. (Oh, the many suburbs are spread out--only the "urban" folk are in danger.)

So far, the only plan we've heard from Bush is using the military for quarantine. I have no faith in his ability to respond to an emergency.

[mike_c]

32. among birds, yes-- HUGE outbreaks....

Avian flu hasn't acquired the full spectrum of genetic changes it needs to go through the human population like that yet. It's still a ticking bomb, however, and no less dangerous for not having gone off yet.

[northzax]

33. you need two more things to happen, though

first, you need it to species hop (and the outbreaks aren't neccesarily fatal to the birds, they are killed first) and second, you need it to be massively communicable, without killing too quickly, but still virulent enough to kill.

yes, eventually such a virus is going to break out, the laws of averages state it, but so far, none have yet broken both barriers and met the conditions for human epidemics. There is no sign that this particular virus has made the hop to humans and remained highly communicable. it's a big leap to make.

eventually a comet will hit the earth, and we should watch all comets, but that doesn't mean the next one coming by wil or that we should start panicing about it.

and one more thing, are you shocked that every epidemiologist is talking doom and gloom? it's what they do to get more funding and continue their work. I'm not saying they are fabricating anything, but they need to prove their raison d'etre.

[lutefisk]

6. The Senators were "rattled" after being briefed on Iraq, too.

At least they express some skepticism about what the administration claims it's doing. Does Joe Allbaugh have his clients' contracts lined up yet?

[OneBlueSky]

8. BushCo is determined to use the military domestically . . .

that suggests a desire to implement martial law at some point . . . they're just looking for the right excuse . . .

with martial law, they don't have to be bothered with the messiness that is democracy . . . cutting the people (us) entirely out of the decision-making process is something BushCo salivates over . . .

[murray hill farm]

18. let us hope then....that

they might have picked up some hint from katrina...that they do need a certain % of the peons...to do the grunt work of a society...NO is experiencing that delima now...so, maybe they will save the strongest of us...one can hope, eh?

[annabanana]

13. If, (I repeat, IF) this flu is as bad as they say..

Then our first priority should be to insist that Big Pharma donate (that's right, DONATE) the necessary facilities to churn out the required volume of vaccine necessary to avoid massive fatalities.

Our first priority should not be to mobilize the military to keep desperate people from overrunning clinics so that the richest people can get in line first...

[soothsayer]

17. hey! Good point. I like it.

[Straight Shooter]

15. A lousy $3.9 billion? That's less than a month expense in Iraq.

Nice to know that D.C. "leadership" has its priorities straight :sarcasm:

[Timmy5835]

19. Let's use a little common sense here, people.

Does any here remember the Swine Flu and SARS? That was also supposed to kill millions., it didn't. As I recall, a few months ago, the head of the CDC was commenting on the advacements worldwide medicine was making on Bird Flu. And if I hear one more compairison to the flu outbreak on 1918 I am going to puke. That was nearly 100 years ago. You mean to tell me we have NOT advanced medically since then. I think before you all freak out a little common sense is needed.

[murray hill farm]

21. not that much advancement, medically..

when it comes to virus caused flu situations. we still have no treatment for the common cold, remember? no cure type treatment, anyway..it is still the same as it was 100 years ago in that if you go right to bed, drink lots of fluids, take aspirin...it will be gone in a week, otherwise it will take 7 days. the cold virus and our reaction to it is the same now as it was then. we "might" be able to develop a vacine..and then it will be of questionable effectiveness, but this will take 10 mos to a year to develop and produce. a virus moves around the world in way shorter time than that.

[Timmy5835]

24. Then TELL US WHY..........

Please tell us why the Swine Flu and SARS didn't kill us off?

[lakeguy]

25. maybe it DID...

and you're just dreaming in some sort of after life. please tell why this isn't a possibility.

[Timmy5835]

26. If this is true then.......

Never mind.

[murray hill farm]

28. Well...

swine flu was not as deadly because it was not as verilant..and sars did not spread as rapidly..and was then temporarily contained..virus's live forever..even when "killed" they just crystilize..to live again once more when introduced to a more friendly medium...and then they mutate...so they are different than they were before..stronger than they were before. virus's transmit differently as often as they are different and depending on how they mutate. they mutate to survive and grow..so in the survival of the fittest scenario, the strongest will survive..and it will be those that can mutate to such an end..the strongest..will survive...and they, too, will mutate again to survive and grow. the concern here is that the bird flue virus will mutate to be able to pass from human to human easily...and this likely will happen...it may not happen, but it most likely will..maybe not this year, but it will...it could mutate to one that does not spread easily, but this is not likely.

[RaleighNCDUer]

30. The treatment for flu has not changed significantly in the past

100 years. And, BTW, the Spanish Flu was different. Something about it caused an overexcitement of the immune system, so it attacked those with the strongest immune systems - people in their 20s and 30s - instead of the young and old with weakened immune systems. And it worked fast; sometimes a person would wake up woozy in the morning and be dead by nightfall. There is little that can be done to fight that.

Yes, there are advances made against the avian flu, but at the same time it has mutated rapidly enough that there are several strains of it out there - none, so far, has mutated to become easily transmissable between people.

It may not happen. But it is a bad idea to get complacent, based on past outbreaks.

[meganmonkey]

20. No, actually, "Washington Rattles Fear of Flu Outbreak"

They got it backwards.

:eyes:

[lovuian]

23. They need to get rattled!!! If Avian Flu hits epidemic levels

our whole healthcare system will be in a crisis!!!

What happens when a hospital is in a quarantine...

the doctors and nurses can't leave but that also means healthcare in that region is going to be extremely stretched to the limit!!! Our system is already stretched... this will make it go over the edge!!!

[HuffleClaw]

27. erm, this IS a real concern, one that they are not remotely prepared for

about their only plan is containment, which would be futile. and a vaccine? they'd need months to even make one, let alone mass-produce it. and ya just know who'd get first dibs on it. the flu kills loads of people every year, or flu-related secondary infections, in particular pneumonia. if people started dying at any noticable rate from some new 'flu' things would get out of hand pretty quick. people would pack up their cars and head out of cities, looking for a 'save haven', some of 'em spreading the infection as they go. they would TRY to isolate areas of infection, likely with some form of quarantine, but people will slip through. schools would have to close, as would malls, theatres, sports venues, etc... i've read up on the flu of 1917-19 and all sorts of measures helped to deal with the problem, but still, millions died.
a typical city hospital isn't prepared for a hundreds/thousands of flu-infected people desperate for treatment. there are sooooo many problems associated with a pandemic that they are pretty much insurmountable. for instance, grocery stores have on hand, maybe a weeks worth of food for x number of people at any given time. they get delivery's constantly. the food delivery system would be disrupted dramatically. who's going to want to deliver a truckload of spam and eggs to a quarantined city? and who's going to want to enter a grocery store full of possibly infected people? the authorities don't have the resources to cope with these things. look at how many out of state police and first responders had to go to the gulf coast for the hurricane. those out of state folks are going to have their hands full in their OWN states if this comes to pass. so... ...then you have to call out the national guard right? military and civilians just don't mix well, under the best of circumstances. the problems are endless. the folks who know about this stuff have been ringing the alarm bells about influenza for a LOOOONG time and have been routinely ignored. we are WAY overdue. way overdue.

[andyarundel]

34. this should be called increase the poll numbers

As to date Hepatitis C, which is infecting Americans at an alarming rate, is deadly, and is ignored by the CDC and this administration. To date close to 5 million Americans are infected with this deadly virus and the number is growing daily. There is no vaccine and treatment is not a cure and only effective for less than 30% who are infected.

I s considered as by the CDC as an epidemic and not a word about this.

Go figure

[Javaman]

29. I see moron* becoming another howard hughes...

long hair, long finger and toe nails, tissue boxes on the feet, muttering about bird flu and WMD's. I think moron* is truly paranoid.

colossal racist paranoid failure*.

[WinkyDink]

35. TOTAL CRAPOLA

Just another variation of "Code: Orange"!! Get the duct tape! Or duck tape! Or chicken tape!

[mom cat]

36. He is looking for any excust to further militarize America.