U.N. Official: New Flu Pandemic Could Kill Millions

[dutchdemocrat]

U.N. Official: New Flu Pandemic Could Kill Millions
Skip directly to the full story.
By Edith M. Lederer Associated Press Writer

Published: Sep 30, 2005
0247EDT

UNITED NATIONS (AP) - A top U.N. public health official warned Thursday that a new influenza pandemic could come anytime and claim millions of lives unless officials to take action now to control an epidemic in Asia.

Dr. David Nabarro of the World Health Organization called on governments to take immediate steps to address the threat at a news conference following his appointment as the new U.N. coordinator to lead a global drive to counter a human flu pandemic.

"We expect the next influenza pandemic to come at any time now, and it's likely to be caused by a mutant of the virus that is currently causing bird flu in Asia," he said.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in Asia since 2003, infecting humans and killing at least 65 people, mostly poultry workers, and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of birds. The virus does not pass from person to person easily, but experts believe this could change if the virus mutates. Nabarro said with the almost certainty of another influenza pandemic soon, and with experts saying there is a high likelihood of the H5N1 virus mutating, it would be "extremely wrong" to ignore the serious possibility of a global outbreak.

"The avian flu epidemic has to be controlled if we are to prevent a human influenza pandemic," Nabarro said. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed more than 40 million people, and there were subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 which had lower death rates but caused great disruption, he said. In a new pandemic, Nabarro said, "the range of deaths could be anything between 5 and 150 million."

SNIP

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBYI1I38EE.html

[etherealtruth]

1. Lovely, we have Bush* and the evil cabal ...

... responsible for the public health.

I feel safe :sarcasm:

[astonamous]

2. This will affect mostely the sick, the weak and the poor...

I don't think this will be a top priority with the B*sh Admin.

[Comadreja]

14. Not to worry

I'm sure the Bush -appointed Dept. head for Disease Control is as qualified and capable as Brownie was for FEMA.

[Wordie]

42. Bush call to remain on the offensive has come too late, per Columbia U's

Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness. From this NEW link:
http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Investigation/story?id=1130392&page=1

<snip>
According to Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, Bush's call to remain on the offensive has come too late.

"If we had a significant worldwide epidemic of this particular avian flu, the H5N1 virus, and it hit the United States and the world, because it would be everywhere at once, I think we would see outcomes that would be virtually impossible to imagine," he warns.

[Paranoid Pessimist]

58. According to the PBS Documentary, that may not be true

The human immune system has no defense to this flu. Asians in their prime, who have contracted the virus from chickens, have died; not just the weak and poor. If the virus learns how to infect humans directly from other humans, the "cull the herd" effect on human population could be devastating. In the 1919 flu epidemic, epidemiologists of the time were surprised how many seemingly healthy people expired, and worst case scenario thinkers (I, as the Paranoid Pessimist being one of them) fear something similar this time.

Of course, as always, I hope I'm wrong.

[iamjoy]

79. Here's A Different Conspiracy, Then

It may well affect more affluent people, because they travel more.

OK - now put on the tinfoil hat.

I think it would affect mostly urban people vs. rural people.

In general, urban people vote Democratic, rural people vote Republican.

Just think about it. I know, I know
:tinfoilhat:

[WildClarySage]

3. This message comes out every year.

While I really hope that as in other years in the recent past, this is much ado over nothing, I'm getting tired of being afraid. And I'd bet that my reaction is not unique. There's a definite boy-who-cried-wolf feeling, and I'm afraid that when the threat becomes reality, it may be ignored by people like me who have heard it year after year.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Why be afraid?

Be prepared instead.

I also hear this every year: "They're just trying to scare us!" But if no one mentioned the topic, and a pandemic did hit, we'd be irate that nobody told us.

The lesson to be learned from keeping informed about infectious disease is to be educated and prepared. Even if you don't get a flu vaccination, simply keeping healthy-in-general and practicing simple hygiene will go a long way to protect you from the flu.

Fear doesn't help at all. Neither does the ignorance-is-bliss attitude a lot of people take. Since there is no way the media can present the issue without doing a bad job, why not bypass the problem and make sure you're doing what YOU have to do to stay healthy?

--p!

[TallahasseeGrannie]

5. All I know is that last year

I couldn't get the flu shot because it was unavailable and wow, I got really sick. Sicker than I have been in years.

I remember the "Asian Flu" of the 1950's. It was awful. I was about 8 and still remember being delerious.

I hope this is just hype.

[jean]

7. sorry you had to suffer through being so sick, but your immune system

is apparently strong and kicked butt! Yay!

[Dogmudgeon]

8. As they say -- "Been there, done that"

I had a major case of Influenza-A in 1990. I didn't even see it coming, and once I was sick, I was too whacked-out to do anything other than stay in bed and pretend I was a Neanderthal Man who had ingested amanita mushrooms and materialized 30,000 years later.

I got the complete Shaman's Special: personal attention from God, Jesus, Buddha, the Hungry Ghosts, the Wish-Fulfilling Cows, and the Holy Chickens Who Dance the Macarena.

Damn near died, too. A 104.5F temperature is not good for 32-year-old time-travelling cave men.

When The Big Pandemic hits, a lot of people are going to get the surprise of their lives. So stay healthy.

--p!

[TallahasseeGrannie]

9. I study genealogy

and not long ago found an obit online I wanted to copy. It was from 1918, in Phila. I hit "print" without realizing I would get the whole list. Imagine my surprise when one week's obits in Phillie were 50 pages long! On every page was listed about 20 deaths and at least 18 of them were people in their prime. That influenza epidemic appeared to hit young adults the worst. Even the babies and kids weren't as affected. But the 25-40 crowd dropped like flies. They were listed as having died either of "influenza" or "pneumonia." Very sobering research find.

[Dogmudgeon]

36. My Grandmother had that flu

She was five years old. She vividly remembers the horse-drawn body carts. Not hearses, but carts, on which the bodies were stacked and carried away. Our family is from Philadelphia, so it is possible that one or two of those obits were for family members.

The whole family had the flu; only she and her father were able to stay home. Her mother (my great-grandmother) nearly died of it, and she was 25. She lost a few aunts and uncles, again, mainly the younger members of the family.

This isn't to scare people, as the original post made reference to, but to give people some idea what a flu pandemic would be like. As always, developing good health habits and keeping aware of the public health precautions is a person's best defense against the flu, as well as other infectious illnesses.

One interesting thing we've learned from viral disease is that viruses also carry viroids -- basically, code particles -- that may account for much or most of the evolution in primates. The point is still controversial, but the evidence is accumulating rapidly. Viral diseases may be the way evolution works, period.

An excellent book along these lines is Darwin's Radio by Greg Bear. It's in print and easy to find. Bear is one of the best writers around, not just one of the best Sci-Fi writers. Darwin's Radio will twist your head clean off your neck and re-mount it before you're done reading, that's how good it is.

I sometimes wonder what polymorphism -- mutation -- I carry as a result of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Is it an increased susceptibility to bone cancer? Alzheimer's Disease? Or an enhanced capacity for learning math, or language use, or some aspect of abstract thinking?

The last page has yet to be written in this saga. But until then, I plan to stay as healthy as I can and get flu shots as necessary!

--p!

[Delphinus]

77. I had the "Shaman's Special" in '78.

Can't recall what that flu was, but it kicked butt. I've never heard anyone else talk about what their delirium was, but mine was quite similar to yours.

[amandabeech]

15. I got the Hong Kong flu in 1968 when I was in middle school.

It was the sickest that I have ever been, and I am susceptible to upper respiratory infections.

I remember half the town being down with the flu--the schools were still operating, but many, many students and teachers were missing. There were few cars around and the stores were empty, except for folks looking for chicken soup, 7-up and OJ.

These really nasty flus come out about every 30 years or so. Since the last one was '68, we're due for another.

[Dogmudgeon]

38. Where did you live?

Hong Kong 1968 didn't hit my town or my school too bad. I was 10, and remember that the teachers talked a lot about it. One of them was pretty scared that a lot of people would die -- she said that up to half the population could potentially die from that flu.

Now THAT was a serious case of panic! Fortunately, we were fairly bright kids, and other teachers were able to set us straight on the subject.

I think that maybe one kid in my school died during that epidemic, and they couldn't tell whether the flu killed him/her, or some other factor.

I fear H5N1 a little, but anything with either an H or an N number over 3 is a potential major pandemic. (The "H" stands for "Hemagglutinin" and the "N" stands for "Neuraminidase", the two major proteins in a flu virus' "coat".) An occasional poster with the nickname Pandemic_1918 has written -- if I recall correctly -- that there are three or four such viruses developing in Asia now. Most new viruses won't turn out to be anything major, but one of them is bound to get through, statistically.

Stay healthy. Eat good food. Exercise. Keep the stress low. Get flu shots when it's advisable. That's the best we can do -- and it's extremely effective.

--p!

[amandabeech]

89. I grew up in a little bitty town in Western Lower Michigan,

about 90 miles northwest of Grand Rapids, home of Gerald R. Ford and Scamway.

The town was still relatively isolated as these things go. The four-lane section of US 31 had not yet reached the place, and not much comes and goes until late spring, when the farm workers and the tourists show up.

[shanti]

45. oh yeah

i remember THAT one! i was 13 and very ill too.

[KenCarson]

6. it is similar to the hurricane warnings, no?

they always say it's going to be awful and it rarely is, so people stay and are then shocked when for once it is as bad as forecasted

[iamjoy]

80. Like Hurricanes...Exactly

The emergency management officials go through this all the time.

We saw the disaster of not properly preparing and not following evacuation orders. We also saw the disaster when millions tried to follow an evacuation order and then the storm missed them. How willing do you think they will be to leave next time? And what if next time, the storm doesn't turn?

(please don't tell me about the people too poor to leave New Orleans, I am not talking about them. I am not talking about people who refused to leave their pets either. In any storm, there are always at least a stubborn few who flat out refuse to leave.)

[shanti]

10. not true

this PARTICULAR message has been coming out every couple of weeks. i believe that we have good reason to fear this flu or they wouldn't be mentioning it so often. kind of like "we told you so".

[Wordie]

29. NO! This is FAR more serious than past flu outbreaks!

Please read the ABC story:
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Flu/story?id=1172638&page=1

<snip>
The draft report of the federal government's emergency plan predicts that as many as 200 million Americans could be infected and 200,000 could die within a few months if the avian flu came to the United States. Right now, there is no vaccine to stop the flu.

Frist and Reid on Nightline last night were talking about a breakdown of worldwide economic system. This IS DIFFERENT.

Also, PLEASE RECOMMEND THIS THREAD. IT IS IMPORTANT!

[TrogL]

40. This is different

The bird flu virus is a time bomb waiting to happen. I'm surprised it hasn't hit already.

[raysr]

11. We better love up

to * so he can protect us from the flu!

[bunny planet]

12. I heard recently that Bush had actually read a book. It was a book about

the 1918 flu epidemic. Perhaps they've figured out a way to save or increase the survival capabilities of the 'base', the haves and the have mores, and leave the rest of us to fend for ourselves if this flu hits human populations.
:scared:

[Gregorian]

28. Wow. A picture book of the 1918 flu epidemic.

Complete with foldout spores?

Bring it on! We can handle anything! We cut brush! We're tough! We're god's chosen people! Except we aren't prepared for diddly squat.

[bunny planet]

32. LOL

[kestrel91316]

60. The one flaw in this logic is that the "haves" and "have mores"

NEED the huddled masses of poor to do their hard work for them. Imagine what would become of them if they had to clean their own toilets and change their own children's diapers and do the laundry and dishes instead of "Rosa" doing it............

[flying_wahini]

13. go ahead and hedge all bets and get a flu shot this year,

that is if you can find them..... yes, a flu shot won't give you complete protection against the avian flu but it may give you
partial relief..... for instance the chicken pox vaccine
even years old (less that 10) will keep you from getting a full blown case.
as a nurse for 20 years, I always passed on having vaccines as I believe that it is best to let your immune system become stronger and I didn't like tampering with mother nature...... However,
that being said, I am getting a flu shot this year and I am taking my husband and kids, too....... the next flu pandemic could be the Big One, and with the state of the world, I feel like
why not go ahead and get one, they are affordable, easy and could save your life. and it doesn't hurt to drink your OJ and WASH your hands often....

[tavalon]

49. Only one problem here

the flu shot coming out this fall has no protection against the avian flu. Stock up on respirator masks, hand sanitizer and try to take vacations and stay home during the worst of it. Get as much tamiflu as you can stock up (good luck, it's hard to find. It seems the have mores have been stocking up this year).

[jessicazi]

55. Where do you recommend that someone purchase

Tamiflu? Online? I looked and there are many websites, any sites that are better than the others/most?

Thanks, jessica

[tavalon]

57. I don't have a specific recommendation

Go to drugbuyers.com. They review a lot of the different sites.

[kestrel91316]

61. Hand sanitizer has triclosan, IIRC, and so it is a VERY BAD THING

Better to use plain old soap and hot water to wash up, frequently. We don't need to wipe out the world's microbes (most of which are EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL). We just need clean hands.

[tavalon]

63. Point well taken on the soap and water

However, during flu season I carry hand sanitizer because I'm not always around water.

[senaca]

90. If the pandemic hits, who would be the leading voices to read?

In 1918 there were a group of medical researchers who were internationally respected like Fisk and Avery. Who would be those leading voices today?

[Wordie]

16. Expert Predicts 'Perfect Set-Up' for Avian Flu Pandemic (hitting US too!)

It was the topic on Ted Koppel's Nightline last night and this article about it appears on the ABC News site. (Note! This is NOT just something that experts think will be isolated in Asia, but is predicted to occur worldwide within the next few years.)

<snip>
Sept. 30, 2005 — Amid growing concern about whether the United States is prepared for a large-scale medical emergency, medical experts say a worldwide avian flu pandemic is inevitable.

The World Health Organization said today that between 2 million and 7.4 million people could die from a global flu pandemic. WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told reporters in Geneva that countries have been warned to be ready to deal with up to 7.4 million deaths, but conceded there was no way to determine the deadliness of the avian flu "until the pandemic begins."

The estimate was a stark contrast to the range given Thursday by Dr. David Nabarro, the U.N. coordinator for global readiness against an outbreak. He said that the world response to warnings would determine whether an avian flu virus ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million.

For lots more info and links:
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Flu/story?id=1172638&page=1

[Deja Q]

17. One infected passenger boarding a flight to the US is all that it takes...

So when CEO ____ comes back from India or China, that twerp can be the death of us corporeally.

Still, bird flu sounds comparatively benign when you consider homelessness and starvation; both of which are the result of having no money to live on.

[Wordie]

18. Benign??? It could kill millions worldwide. Cripple economies.

And Bush hired an arabian horse association manager to be head of the agency who is supposed to be tracking all this! How much precious preparation time did we lose, tilting at terrorist dragons, while all the while this was looming on the horizon, ignored by the Bush Crony Crowd.

[nomatrix]

37. You've got to get out more

Approximately 673,000 international visitors will arrive at Hawaii's airports over the next three months. Where are they coming from?

Leading the way, by far, are visitors from Japan. Over 475,000 visitors will arrive in Hawaii from airports in Japan with 289,000 alone coming from Tokyo's Narita International Airport.
Approximately 35,000 other visitors will arrive from two other Asian cities - 20,000 from Taipei, Taiwan and 15,000 from Seoul, South Korea.
Hawaii will welcome approximately 56,000 visitors from Australia and New Zealand with 47,700 arriving from Sydney alone.
The island nations of the Pacific will send approximately 54,000 visitors to Hawaii with the largest number, 22724, arriving from Guam.
Over 52,000 visitors will arrive through Vancouver, the only Canadian airport serving Hawaii.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

19. Are we going to experience another flu vaccine shortage?

[Rainscents]

20. YUP... Worst than last year! Bush isn't doing shit about this either!

[Wordie]

22. No! FAR worse! They are talking WORLDWIDE PANDEMIC.

[Wordie]

21. Frist and Reid were on the program last night saying we do not have enough

This is MSM telling us there is a problem, and the leaders of the Senate! This is NOT tinfoil hat stuff; it's serious!

[GetTheRightVote]

65. Yes, I spoke of it and how we are not ready for it, but will be with time

:kick:

[HereSince1628]

23. Is there a vaccine in production?

[Bridget Burke]

26. Apparently not. I checked but couldn't find any positive information.

Many countries are stockpiling the antiviral Tamiflu. But a strain of Bird Flu is showing resistance.

www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG114286.htm

[Corgigal]

33. Tamiflu

Was thinking about purchasing this for the family. Then I heard on CNN that Tamiflu isn't showing results either.

Gee.

[Wordie]

35. Tamiflu is not a vaccine. There IS NO vaccine. Tamiflu is a

treatment, once the person already has the disease. It does nothing to prevent the spread of the disease.

[pitohui]

52. tamiflu don't work, sez cnn

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/30/birdflu.drugs.reut/index.html

not that pitohui ever said it did, indeed, i think much of the flu hysteria is viral marketing by the pharmas to sell worthless treatments and vaccines

anyway avian flu is not worth worrying abt it, we seem to have excellent protocols for fighting the spread of this sort of disease

SARS anyone?

[kestrel91316]

62. I heard a couple of days ago (network news??) that they are in the

testing stage of several potential vaccines for avian flu. They just aren't sure what the exact antigenic characteristics of the breakout strain will be, there are apparently several candidates. They have to get this one right.

[stickdog]

84. You can't make a vaccine before the virus even exists.

[Massachusetts]

41. Get all the info you need at this site!!!!! Screw ABC

Effect Measure is a forum for progressive public health discussion and argument as well as a source of public health information from around the web that interests the Editor(s)


http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

[Wordie]

43. I read part of that...some good info there. Thanks.

[tavalon]

51. You need to take double to triple the regular dose

Expect to take a huge hit in the wallet for it as well.

[Wordie]

27. There is no vaccine...nor facilities to produce it, if one were developed.

<snip>
The draft report of the federal government's emergency plan predicts that as many as 200 million Americans could be infected and 200,000 could die within a few months if the avian flu came to the United States. Right now, there is no vaccine to stop the flu.

[tavalon]

50. Nope, not this year

but neither will this batch protect you from the avian flu. That won't come down the pike for a couple of years yet. Hope the avian flu waits for our feces consolidation.

[Ian David]

24. I'm sure anyone Bush appoints to take care of this will do a great job...

I hear Bush is planning to appoint an Ornithologist in charge of The Centers for Disease Control Bird Flu Taskforce.

I just searched OpenSecrets.org , but couldn't find an Ornithologist political donor.

I wonder who it will be.

Anyone know of an Ornithologist who teaches Creationism?

[Bridget Burke]

25. But there are plenty of Republican Birdbrains...

Surely, one of them will get the job.

[Wordie]

30. Please read the ABC news story, and RECOMMEND this thread!

The ABC news story is linked in some earlier posts. This is so important for people to know about...

[mainer]

31. Will kill many young and healthy, if it's like 1918 flu

the so-called "spanish" flu (which started in the US, not Spain) felled millions of young and healthy adults around the world because of their intact and robust immune systems which, paradoxically, attacked lung tissue and caused massive necrosis and hemorrhage.

This is nothing to sneeze at, folks. We've received warnings from agencies around the world. The alarm is sounding in medical journals and science journals. We as a medical family have already taken measures to protect our own by buying our own supply of oseltamivir -- the same anti-viral that is now being stockpiled in the UK and Scandinavia. The vaccine will take 6 months or more to manufacture; in that time, how many will die?

Bush and Co. worry about a few thousand American deaths from terrorism.

Mother Nature, with a few mutations of H5N1, could easily kill 50 MILLION Americans.

[Wordie]

34. It's FAR worse than 1918: NOBODY (in the world) has natural immunity

This is an entirely NEW strain of the flu. And that's why there are no vaccines at this time. It poses a FAR higher risk than the strains that created the 1918 flu (and I believe I heard on Nightline that 1 in 4 in the U.S. got that flu).

[Massachusetts]

39. Next stop North America

Read on and prepare.
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

[rfkrfk]

44. cabin attendants need protection from diseased passengers

airline cabin attendants should be
wearing space suits.
same for the poor souls that clean the airplanes.

How would you like being in close contact
with hundreds of people infested with Bird Flu?

[pitohui]

53. yes remember all those flight attendents who dropped dead of SARS

oh right me neither

chill

there will be no avian flu epidemic any more than there was a swine flu epidemic

we have v. good protocols for containing that sort of thing

[tavalon]

54. Nope, they only need respirator masks

I wear one almost every time I fly on an airplane in the fall and winter. I get weird looks but I stay healthy in the most unhealthy of environments, recirculated airplane cabin air.

[phusion]

46. This month's National Geographic

has an in-depth feature story about this potential pandemic.

:scared:

[stubtoe]

48. Phusion, a follow-up on your post, if I may

Here's a link to the online version of the NG article:

http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0510/feature1/index.html

Avian flu H5N1 is transmissible between birds and humans. About half of those infected so far have died.

If the virus mutates enough that it becomes easily transmissible between humans, it could become a pandemic, especially if it retains its current level of virulousness. THAT's what they're scared of.

[Wordie]

47. Best defense against fear= ACCURATE KNOWLEDGE + PREPAREDNESS

Thanks to everyone who nominated this thread!

[bonito]

56. My advice

I've posted this before, but for those who haven't heard. Get some IONIC silver, better yet make it yourself so you know what your getting and purchase a nebuliser.

[stickdog]

59. Most Americans don't live with domestic birds in their backyards.

We should have plenty of warning from thousands dying in Asia before this becomes an issue for us. Remember that first the virus has to mutate so that birds can infect humans in large numbers, THEN it has to mutate so humans can infect humans.

It's a huge risk for many Asian communities (it could do to Asia what AIDS is doing to Africa), but much less of a risk here.

[Wordie]

82. It does not have to infect American birds first.

That's not the transmission pattern the scientists are worried about. The potential transmission pattern would be from bird to human in Asia, then that human travels to the U.S. and voila...

It wouldn't take much for it to arrive here, and please remember they are saying that it is VERY contagious.

[stickdog]

83. It DOESN'T even exist yet, so how in the hell do "they" know that

human to human transmission will be very contagious?

Why all the alarmist rhetoric?

[Wordie]

85. Actually, it DOES exist, and some humans have contracted it already.

The bird flu DOES exist; it has been a problem among poultry and wild bird populations since at least 2003 (and some sources offer an even earlier date of 1997).

<snip>
The killer avian influenza, also known as bird flu, broke out in eight Asian countries late in 2003, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam all reported infected poultry.

In late June 2004, lethal outbreaks of infection among poultry broke out again, including in China and Malaysia. The following March, North Korea reported its first outbreak of bird flu. More than 140 million birds have died from the disease or have been killed to prevent further spread.
<unsnip>

AND...
It's been contracted by a number of people in Asia. The thing that is confusing is that the flu those people have contracted has spread to them by bird-to-human transmission. In order for it to spread from human to human, it has to mutate (that's why some people have been left with the impression that it doesn't exist yet). And the scientists have discovered that this is a strain of the flu that mutates rapidly.

There are now, apparently, only a couple of islolated cases of human-to-human transmission. But that's what has everyone so worried.


<snip>
Popping pills to ward off infection won't do the trick, either.

"The use of an antiviral drug in poultry will create drug resistance and will hamper the treatment of avian flu in humans," Domenech said. All type A influenza viruses, like the bird flu H5N1, are genetically adaptable and readily mutate, according to WHO.

Its adaptability makes it all the more threatening. Experts fear it could evolve into a human virus, making it all the more deadly. At least two people have contracted the virus from another person.
<unsnip>

You can read more about it in the article that I've quoted from, entitiled, "Bird Flu: Cause for Alarm?" here:
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Flu/story?id=910389&page=1

[stickdog]

86. Once again, how can anyone tell if human to

human transmission will become highly contagious at this point? It has been anything BUT highly contagious so far.

Once again, people in the US don't generally live in close contact with domesticated birds. So why all the alarmist rhetoric?

I find the whole idea that scientists are claiming that a human epidemic caused by possible future mutations of avian flu is inevitable to be completely full of shit. The only way such mutations are inevitable is if somebody is doing (or has already done) the requisite gene splicing in a lab.

[Wordie]

91. Ok...let me try once again too.

Maybe laying it out this way will help:
FIRST STEP: (This is already established; it has happened already.)
First, bird to bird transmission shows it to be highly contagious among birds. The virus in question is therefore known to be highly contagious. Scientists study the virus; find it is one that mutates easily.

SECOND STEP: (This has already happened, too.)
Then, the virus mutates, and there is a bird-to-human transmission. Though numbers vary, the fatality rate in humans is somewhere between 50% and 70% (this is quite a high rate of fatalities). Further study by scientists determines that there are no humans who have ANY natural antibodies to this strain of flu virus.

THIRD STEP: (this is the one we are worried about)
THEN, the virus mutates again, and NOW, human-to-human transmission is possible. There is apparently some debate about whether this has already occured: some reports say there have been no human-to-human cases, other reports say there have only been a couple. BUT, as this virus is also known to mutate easily, this is the part that they expect to BE ABLE to happen easily, whether or not it already has. So at this step, the virus has all the characteristics that it had before (highly contagious, high fatalities), with the ADDITION of one more, which is the capability of being transmitted from human-to-human. This is the thing that will make it dangerous to us in the U.S., because we will not have to come anywhere NEAR an infected bird to be at risk, we will contract the flu from other humans.

I'm not an expert in these things, but I think I've more or less outlined it here. If you doubt me, please try following one of the links that I or other posters have included in this thread. The experts can explain it far better.

[stickdog]

93. These experts have explained nothing but their fears that step 3

COULD happen at some future date.

And the fact that this COULD happen is more than enough reason to prepare for the worst. I think we are all agreed on this point.

My problem is with the ky is falling rhetoric saying that such a mutation is INEVITABLE. There are plenty of pathogenically virulent and contagious animal to animal virii with the same ability to mutate that have not mutated so as to become highly contagious via human to human transmission over the course of decades and even centuries. So I can't help but wonder why "experts" are claiming that this process is INEVITABLE in this case. In fact, this widely disseminated rhetoric causes me to raise at least one eyebrow, because its purpose seem to be to innoculate us mentally for an "inevitable" future epidemic.

Please not that is some defense lab wanted to create a virus that would differentiate between Asians and Anglo-Europeans in terms of epidemic concerns, it would be hard pressed to come up with one better than avian flu considering the far closer proximity between people and people, domesticated foul and domesticated foul and people and domesticated foul within Asian as compared to Anglo countries.

This virus certainly has the potential to decimate Asian populations in the same manner that AIDS is currently decimating African populations. And when it comes to widespread vaccinations, my faith in big pharma gives me no confidence that the "cure" won't be contaminated with some future health concern. So I agree that this is a very important issue, but I don't think the solution is to have freaked out US citizens demanding to inject themselves with vaccines that don't even exist yet.

[Carolab]

64. Relenza, not Tamiflu.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3505739.stm

You can order it online from Canada:

http://www.medcentercanada.com/en/search/list/drug-relenza/

[JCMach1]

66. Bird flu jumps transmission barrier in humans

By Tom Clifford, Assistant Editor
Dubai: Bird flu has broken the transmission barrier and jumped from human to human, according to the World Health Organisation.

Most cases have been bird to human but transmission between people increases fears of a global pandemic...

"There have been four, maybe five cases of humans getting it from other humans," Thompson told Gulf News from the organisation's Geneva headquarters.

"All of these have been in Asia. But it is important to note that it was not passed on to more humans. The chain ended at those four or five who caught it."... http://gulfnews.com/Articles/WorldNF.asp?ArticleID=184637

[Pam-Moby]

67. No good

I just heard on the news that a lady died in MI from west nile.

[TheWraith]

68. I'm not worried.

These things are really of very little threat, in my opinion. It's overhyped the same way every other phantom danger is, because people who are scared tune in to watch the news. Once upon a time, SARS was the boogeyman too.

The reality is that we've gotten very good at containing diseases, the conditions which allow disease to propagate easily don't exist in most of the western world, and worldwide contagion isn't nearly as easy as it's made out to be. None of the people who have gotten infected by drinking duck blood are going to be strolling through the gates of LAX.

[merwin]

69. You should watch the movie 'Smallpox'.

It's a fake documentary. But it does show how something as small as one person having Smallpox can cause a HUGE outbreak. It changed my mind about how easily viruses can travel.

[Esra Star]

70. If these threats aren't taken seriously enough at an early stage

then eventually one of them will end up on your doorstep.
SARS is real. Bird flu is real. Ebola is real. Aids is real.
Advance preparation is very important.

[Bridget Burke]

88. Yes. We shouldn't get hysterical over Avian flu.

But it would be good if research were supported--& the government made CDC data available to other researchers.

I don't trust this administration's Public Health "plan."

[RONSTOO]

72. i agree

this is such bullshit and I dont have a PhD....Jesus Christ what a dumb fucking world we live in.

[aquart]

74. You really need to read up on influenza.

Then go back and look at the Black Death. There are reasons the bird flu is being watched with such careful terror.

On the other hand, if we have human to human transmission, we've got antibodies and why the hell aren't they working on the vaccine?

[Baconfoot]

75. It's much more difficult to contain a threat people don't believe is real

Part of our ability to contain diseases comes from prevention in the form of compliance with suggestions designed to assist in the containment.

You say this flu isn't anything more than a "little threat" because of our ability to contain diseases. However, the containment ability is at least partially due to the ability to produce beliefs in individuals regarding what the threat WOULD be were there less containment ability.

You undermine our ability to contain disease by referring to the threat level of a disease GIVEN that ability since the ability itself requires a realistic threat assessment in the counterfactual LESS containment situation.

Also, we're not worried about a duck blood drinker per se. The article cites cases of human to human transmission and THAT'S where the mega-death rub is, not in duck blood to human transmission. So tell me about those gates of LAX again eh?

[Bridget Burke]

87. If it's not a "Western world" problem, we should not worry!

Who the hell drinks duck blood?

[Kailassa]

71. it's an ill wind ...

One thing we can be sure of, the drug companies will find a way to make billions from it, if they haven't already.

[necso]

73. Every time that this virus

"blossoms" into humans, there is a chance that a strain that passes easily from human to human (third-hand, fourth, whatever) will emerge.

If such a beast does arise, it will need to stopped quickly -- at least if it is a high-fatality-rate strain.

Birds, you see, fly around (unlike, say, pigs) -- and widely. And this is an influenza virus (unlike, say, SARS), which is a type of virus that can be (and is frequently) spread widely and rapidly among humans (if the virus is of the right sort).

Or so I understand it.

[shraby]

76. If it becomes easily transmissable from human

to human, one person can infect a whole airplane full of people and as those people go home, each one can infect everyone they come in contact with. It will be very hard to contain, same as the flu bugs we experience every winter. The difference is, this one so far has been more lethal to the people who have caught it from the birds.

It has the potential to be a devastating epidemic once it mutates to a human to human disease.

[ElectroPrincess]

78. Since our blessed Drug companies will NOT produce anything ...

seemingly without the guarantee of later HUGE and SHAMELESS profits, there's "not much" us sheeple can do about it.

No need to get neurotic. I'd rather see Tom Delay go to justice and pressing our gutless Democratic Leaders THAN "oooh and aweee" and get all neurotic about what I can't control NOR predict.

[Gin]

81. Shrub has mentioned this flu threat many times lately......since they

give clues to what they are planning...I think...the epidemic is a certainty...it will be "created" to gain control of the country while folks are sick and dying...and his numbers are low.

These boys lay their plans out for the general public like previews of coming attractions..

[goclark]

92. Will the flu shots be available this year?

I mean the regular flu shots.