STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 28 September

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 28, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 115 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 282 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 346 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1403
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 27, 2005

Dow... 10,456.21 +12.58 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,116.42 -5.04 (-0.24%)
S&P 500... 1,215.66 +0.03 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.30% +0.01 (+0.16%)
Gold future... 466.20 -3.30 (-0.71%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif: HUI - XAU

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Conclusion

Price has met the upside objective, both in the bullion, as well as in the XAU and HUI indices. In addition, all the indicators have formed negative divergences that four out of five times lead to a pullback between 7% and 14%. The XAU and the HUI have experienced advances from their May lows, of roughly 45%. Since October of 2000, every time these indices have rallied between 45% to 50%, a pullback has followed.

Therefore, in the absence of an exogenous event that drives the price of the bullion and the indices higher, a pullback with a magnitude of 7% to 14% is imminent. Going forward we see three possible scenarios: 1) The XAU continues lower from current levels, 2) The XAU makes a marginal new high, and then it reverses to the downside, and 3) The XAU makes a lower high, and then it reverses to the downside. Scenarios #2 and #3 are the most preferable because they allow for the possibility of building a bigger position. However, we must trade the scenario we are dealt with, not the one we had hoped to deal with! Therefore, if on Monday the XAU continues lower, we will buy to open the Oct110 puts, but the position will initially be no more than 5%, and ultimately it won't exceed more 10% of our total capital.

[UpInArms]

31. Gold prices edge up in morning trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is up $2 at $468.20 an ounce in morning trade, finding some support from a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. "Physical demand for gold has been on an upswing, particularly from Middle East countries who have a windfall from oil profits appear to be diversifying investments into gold," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com. "Therefore, 'petrodollar' buying of gold should provide a floor and slow any speculative profit taking break in the metal," she said in daily commentary. December silver is up 4.2 cents t $7.37 an ounce and December copper tapped a record of $1.7445 a pound before last trading at $1.737, up 0.9 cent.

[UpInArms]

75. Gold closes up $6.90 for day - at $473.10 oz

1:41pm 09/28/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $473.10/OZ, UP $6.90, OR 1.5%

[ozymandius]

2. HA HA! Alert: Chain store sales soften due to weather

The weather.... riiiiiight.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales slowed in the fourth week of September, as retailers complained that a combination of warm weather and hurricanes led to sluggish sales, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales in September to date were up 0.4 percent compared with the same period in August, while sales at major retailers rose by 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended September 24, said Redbook Research, an independent company.

"Sales slowed in the fourth week as consumers continued to avoid cool weather merchandise due to warm weather in most parts of the country," Redbook said.

"If sales don't pick up, retailers are expected to markdown early in order to clear inventory and make room for holiday goods in October," Redbook added.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Exuberance leads to asset drops:Greenspan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Asset bubbles fueled by "market exuberance" invariably burst and policy-makers cannot safely pierce them, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday in what some economists took as a warning to bond market and housing speculators.

In a speech in which he once again defended the Fed's decision not to deflate the late-1990s stock market bubble, Greenspan said a successful monetary policy can be a victim of its own success -- by reducing economic volatility that in turn fosters greater risk-taking.

He warned that protracted bouts of big risk-taking by investors are always followed by asset-price declines, and he said maintaining the U.S. economy's flexibility was essential to helping it weather the inevitable blows.

"History cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets," he told an economics conference in Chicago via satellite.

more

[54anickel]

24. Million-dollar homes are now a dime a dozen

edit to replace dupe of Number of US millionaires reaches record 9m from FT at
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20050928/bs_ft/fto0928200500... ;_ylt=Avk9YFcqx1rXh1h42ywocT_2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

with


Demand for housing still outstripping supply in many U.S. markets
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9504858 /

snip>

For the first time, there are more than 1 million owner-occupied homes in the United States worth $1 million or more, according to a Census Bureau survey published late last month.

Once a symbol of unusual wealth, million-dollar dwellings now seem like a dime a dozen in some places. San Francisco alone has more than 20,000 of them. There are another 46,000, or so, in Orange County, Calif.

In Manhattan, even someone with a million dollars in their pocket can't buy luxury. The average price for an apartment in all but Harlem and the borough’s northern tip climbed above $1.2 million in the second quarter of 2005, said Gregory Heym, chief economist for Terra Holdings, an owner of real estate brokerages in the city.

"For a million dollars, you couldn’t get a two-bedroom on the East Side," Heym said.

more...

[UpInArms]

64. Here are the new monopoly funny money bills with which to buy

them

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.47 Change -0.13 (-0.15%)

Can US Durable Goods Orders Produce The Expected Rebound?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&tas...

US Durable Goods Orders (AUG) (12:30 GMT, 8:30AM EST)
Consensus: 0.7%
Previous: -4.9%

Outlook: August’s data is expected to show a modest 0.7% increase in durable goods orders following July’s fall, which was the largest in a year and a half. The civilian aircraft component will most likely hold steady this month since Boeing received 90 orders in August compared to July’s 88. On the consumer side, there’s downside risk from the University of Michigan’s report of a sharp fall in sentiment to 89.1 from 96.5 in light of high oil prices and after a smaller increase in payrolls in the month combined with declining real hourly earnings. However, the Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence actually reported a slight rebound in the month from 103.6 to 105.5. In any case, orders will probably only get worse in September due to the destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The rebuilding efforts following the two storms will give a boost as firms and consumers must replace lost goods. Unfortunately, this effect probably won’t take hold for another few months.

Previous: After May and June’s hefty upward surprises to durable goods orders, July finally brought a larger-than-expected retracement along with some upwards revisions to data from prior months. Total new orders for durable goods dropped 4.9% against economists’ median expectation of a 1.5% fall. As expected, there was a decline in transportation, which amounted to a change of -8.3%. However, machinery and computers/electronics also experienced sizeable new order decreases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively. On top of all this, capital spending in the month was weak with a 3.7% decline in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. One positive note is that in May and June, new orders exceeded shipments by $14,2 billion, signaling that there are enough orders in the pipeline to prevent any drastic drop in output in the near future despite July’s weak performance in orders.

...more...

Dollar Shrugs off Weaker Confidence and Home Sales Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&tas...

US Dollar - Even in the face of weaker economic data, the US dollar remains unfazed. Consumer confidence fell by the largest amount in 15 years as Hurricane Katrina drove oil prices to a record high. With confidence at such weak levels, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending can also hold up. Although oil prices have retraced since Katrina, it is above $65 a barrel at the moment, which means that consumers must still be feeling the pain. Additionally, even though existing home sales increased in August, today’s new home sales report indicated that purchases fell 9.9%. For the most part, the Euro spent most of the day testing the psychologically important 1.20 level. Comments by Fed President Yellen were taken as slightly dollar bullish. She said that the Fed must keep its pledge to control inflation, which the market took as another hint that there may be more rate hikes in the pipeline. Yellen however, is not a voting member of the FOMC. Greenspan was also on the wires today but he refrained from making any new comments. He took the opportunity to once again warn about Americans’ disregard for growing credit risk. Greenspan said that “History cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets.'' Although he did not directly say which market he is talking about, it is clear that he is referring to the housing market. According to the Wall Street Journal, Greenspan personally supervised research on consumer borrowing habits and according to his analysis, American consumers have been extremely dependent on home equity loans to fuel their spending, which means that a rise in mortgage rates could throw quite a setback to consumer spending. Of course, the dollar has completely shrugged off his warnings once again. Momentum continues to drive the slide in the EURUSD along with continued repatriation flows related to the Homeland Investment Act. Part of the reason why traders are focusing on the HIA flows now is because the bulk of the repatriation did not occur until May of this year, when the government clarified the tax law. It is also estimated that 10-15% of US corporation use September 30th as their year-end, which means that those corporations may be rushing to take advantage of the lower tax rate. Yet, HIA repatriation should continue into year-end, which means that it could continue to provide a stimulus for the dollar.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar gets small lift from U.S. data, still down on the day

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Headlines showing a sharp rise in demand for big-ticket goods made at U.S. factories last month gave the dollar some lift. But the report also revealed a revision to show a larger drop in orders a month earlier. The dollar improved to 113.16 yen from 113.07 yen ahead of the report, but remained down from 113.24 yen late Tuesday. The euro slipped to $1.2020 from $1.2030 ahead of the report, but remains higher on the day against its U.S. counterpart.

[UpInArms]

5. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200539.html

Sep 28	8:30 AM	Durable Orders		Aug	-	NA	0.6%	-4.9	-

Petroleum Inventories are also due this morning (DOE/API)

[UpInArms]

13. Durable Goods report in:

hmmmm...

With all the revisions - it's difficult to make heads or tails of this one - screwing up the reports is one of the MOs of this mal-administration.

8:30am 09/28/05 U.S. JULY DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO FALL 5.3% VS 4.9% PREV

8:30am 09/28/05 U.S. AUG. DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES DOWN 0.2%

8:30am 09/28/05 U.S. AUG. DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS RISE 1.7%

8:30am 09/28/05 U.S. AUG. DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 3.3% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by demand for computers, orders for new U.S.-made durable goods increased 3.3% in August. Economists were expecting orders to rise 0.9%. Durable orders in July were revised to a 5.3% decrease from 4.9% previously estimated. Shipments of durable goods increased 1.7% in August after a 0.7% fall in July. Orders for core capital goods equipment rose 4.3% in August after falling 7.1% in the previous month.

Let's try and figure it out -

July - down 7.1%
August - up 4.3% - mmmm no - that's down too - a revised 5.3%
now they are currently saying that August is up 3.3%

:shakesheadatsnarledmess:

[UpInArms]

17. more gobbledygookspeak

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

excerpt:

Durable goods orders rose 3.3 percent last month, the government said, compared with economists' estimates of 0.8 percent growth and a downwardly revised 5.3 percent decline in July.

Non-defense capital orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for underlying business investment, climbed 3.6 percent, while the previous month's decline was upwardly revised to negative 3.3 percent from negative 4.1 percent.

[UpInArms]

20. more info:

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type...

excerpt:

July orders for durable goods were revised down to a 5.3 percent decline from a previously reported 4.9 percent fall, while ex-transportation orders were also lowered, to a 3.7 percent drop from the previously reported 3.2 percent dip.

Demand for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, seen as a proxy for business spending, rose 3.6 percent in August after a 3.3 decline in July.

Orders of durable goods rose across all major categories.

Primary metals orders climbed 9.2 percent, the biggest surge since October 2003. Machinery orders gained 3.5 percent after a 7.1 percent slide the month before. Computers and electronic products orders jumped 5.5 percent, regaining ground after a 6.5 percent tumble in July.

Transportation orders rose 1.4 percent as demand for autos rose 0.8 percent and civilian aircraft orders -- which had dropped 21.4 percent in July -- climbed 9.4 percent. Orders for military aircraft gained 15 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. DOE Petroleum Inventory Report: (oops!)

10:30am 09/28/05 U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 2.4 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:30am 09/28/05 U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 4.4 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:30am 09/28/05 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 500,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. crude stocks fall for a fifth week: Energy Dept

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude inventories fell 2.4 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 23 to total 305.7 million. They've already fallen 14.8 million barrels in the past four weeks. But motor gasoline supplies climbed unexpectedly, up 4.4 million barrels to 199.8 million. Distillate stocks were down 500,000 barrels at 133.6 million barrels. November crude is up 13 cents at $65.20 a barrel. October unleaded gas is up 0.86 cent at $2.175 a gallon. October heating oil is up 0.14 cent at $2.07 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

47. API: Crude stocks fall, but gas supply rises

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories fell by 740,000 barrels for the week ended Sept. 23 -- that's less than a third of the government's reported 2.4 million-barrel decline. Motor gasoline inventories rose 2.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 120,000 barrels, the API said.

[54anickel]

54. Gas supplies up again, yet prices in my neighborhood are still rising.

I guess it's in anticipation of some shortage that will probably never come. Guess they better shut-down a few more refineries for maintenance.

When will Shrub come out and take credit for telling people to drive less and conserve (though last week's inventory numbers pointed that we were already doing that)

[AnneD]

73. Hey 54anickel

Except for the hurricane gridlock and routine rush hours...traffic here is lighter. I have noticed more traffic in the carpool lane too. Now if we can just get Bush to curtail AF-1 travel, we can save the air lines too

[54anickel]

100. Well THAT didn't take long -

Pump price to rise as refineries to shut for weeks

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

[UpInArms]

62. Report: Costly Winter ahead for Consumers (DUH!)

11:38am 09/28/05 INDUSTRY REPORT: WINTER NATURAL GAS DEMAND SEEN RISING 2.3%

11:36am 09/28/05 INDUSTRY REPORT: HURRICANES TO AFFECT WINTER HEATING COSTS

11:35am 09/28/05 REPORT: U.S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION SEEN FLAT IN 2005

11:34am 09/28/05 INDUSTRY GROUP: NATURAL GAS BILLS TO CLIMB THIS WINTER

edited to add the following:

Industry predicts higher natural gas prices this winter

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers can expect to pay higher natural gas heating bills this winter, according to a winter outlook released Wednesday by the Natural Gas Supply Association. Although the group does not predict prices, the report said shut-in production from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, stronger customer demand, higher priced natural gas in storage, and anticipated economic growth will place upward pressure on natural gas prices. "U.S. natural gas markets so far appear to be compensating for ongoing Hurricane Katrina-related supply disruptions, but Hurricane Rita and anticipated increase in heating demand are expected to stretch natural supplies even further, likely resulting in higher wholesale costs this winter," the group said in a statement.

[UpInArms]

83. Winter heating bills to head higher

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B16230...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers can expect to pay higher natural-gas heating bills this winter, according to a seasonal outlook released Wednesday by the Natural Gas Supply Association.

A supply situation that's already tight heading into the winter heating season is expected to worsen due to the effect of the two hurricanes that recently hammered the Gulf of Mexico, a natural-gas producing hub, said Joseph Blount, the industry group's chairman.

Katrina and Rita will likely be "the most significant storm" ever to hit the U.S. natural-gas industry, Blount said. Roughly 20% of the natural gas consumed in the United States is produced in the Gulf region.

Natural-gas futures hit a record high well above $13 per million British thermal units after the report was released. See full story.

The gas association said it expects upward pressure on prices because of stronger customer demand, higher-priced gas in storage, and current economic growth forecasts.

Natural-gas markets "so far appear to be compensating for ongoing Hurricane Katrina-related supply disruptions, but Hurricane Rita and an anticipated increase in heating demand are expected to stretch natural supplies even further, likely resulting in higher wholesale costs this winter," the group said in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. mortgage applications fell last week-MBA

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?...

NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. residential mortgages fell last week as rising interest rates deterred borrowers from refinancing their existing home loans and taking out new ones, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans fell 6.6 percent to 721.2 in the week ended Sept. 23. The index rose 1.5 percent in the previous week.

The MBA's purchase index fell 3.4 percent to 483.1, adding to the previous week's 2.6 percent loss.

The refinancing index fell 10.5 percent to 2,106.6. more than offsetting the previous week's 7.0 percent gain.

The indexes were all seasonally adjusted, the MBA said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Suda: BOJ policy switch possible this fiscal year

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

KOCHI, Japan, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Policy Board member Miyako Suda left open the possibility on Wednesday that the central bank could abandon its super-loose monetary policy by the end of the fiscal year to next March.

"We may or may not be able to (shift policy) this fiscal year," Suda told a news conference in Kochi, southwestern Japan.

Suda, a policy hawk, said the BOJ could swiftly shift to a policy of low interest rates once it abandons its super-loose policy if economic and market conditions allow.

The BOJ has promised to keep force-feeding the banking system with excess cash under its quantitative easing policy until the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rises above year-earlier levels on a sustained basis.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Taser under SEC investigation over insider trading allegations

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3155...

Taser, the maker of stun guns used by police on both sides of the Atlantic, said yesterday that America's Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating it over allegations of insider trading.

Tasers have in the past few years became very popular in the US as an alternative to guns and are also used by special weapons units in Britain. In July a Taser gun was used to immobilise one of the alleged would-be London suicide bombers in Birmingham.

However, the Arizona-based company has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months. Its shares have slumped this year from $30 (£20) to just over $6 yesterday amid safety concerns about its 50,000-volt devices.

It has also already disclosed that the SEC had begun an informal investigation into both claims it made in safety studies and into a particular sale of stun guns which appeared to help it meet its financial targets.

...more...

hmmm...

Updated: 10:20 a.m. ET Dec. 9, 2004

Kerik made millions from agency contractor
Homeland Security nominee sat on board of stun-gun maker

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6684832 /


Former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, left, speaks at the White House last week. Kerik made $6.7 million by selling stock given him by Taser International.

WASHINGTON - Bernard Kerik, President Bush's choice to run the Homeland Security Department, made $6.2 million by exercising stock options he received from a company that sold stun guns to the department — and seeks more business with it.

Taser International was one of many companies that received consulting advice from Kerik after he left his job as New York City police commissioner in 2001, when he was earning $150,500 a year. Kerik remains on Taser's board of directors, although the company and the White House said he planned to sever the relationship.

Partnering with former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and also operating independently, Kerik has had business arrangements with manufacturers of prescription drugs, computer software and bulletproof materials, as well as companies selling nuclear power, telephone service, insurance and security advice for Americans working abroad.

<snip>

According to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission by the Scottsdale, Ariz., company, Kerik exercised his options and sold stock in November 2003 for $913,500. He made another sale last month for $5.85 million, for a total of $6.76 million, benefiting from a huge increase in the value of Taser stock during the period when he held the options.

The SEC records show that Kerik's price for the options — counting both sales — was $567,838, giving him a profit of $6.2 million.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Delphi Seeks $6 Bln (from GM) to Avoid Bankruptcy, People Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=axN...

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Delphi Corp., the biggest U.S. supplier of auto parts, has asked General Motors Corp. for an aid package worth $6 billion to help avoid a bankruptcy filing, people familiar with the situation said.

Delphi, of Troy, Michigan, aims to use the cash from GM to reduce expenses by offering some long-time workers bonuses to retire, quit or accept lower pay, the people said. The money would also be used to pay for pensions and health care for the retirees, they said.

GM, the largest customer and former parent of Delphi, is considering a request for assistance, said spokesman Jerry Dubrowski, who wouldn't confirm the amount or other details. GM's decision will hinge in part on concessions it wrests from the United Auto Workers union, the people said. GM is asking unions to help trim $5.6 billion in annual health-care expenses.

``The problem for GM's labor negotiators is to show the board of directors how helping Delphi will pay for itself,'' said analyst Sean McAlinden of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

GM could save $1.4 billion a year on cheaper parts if Delphi buys out its 24,000 high-seniority UAW workers, who receive $27.50 an hour, and replaces them with new workers making $14 an hour, McAlinden said. GM could save even more if, by helping Delphi, the automaker encourages the UAW to accept lower-cost health care for its own workforce, McAlinden said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Frist Faces Heat as SEC Orders Formal Inquiry Into (Insider) Stock Sale

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aIj...

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist faces a near-term ordeal unwelcome to anyone, particularly an ambitious politician: an official probe into his personal financial dealings by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC authorized a formal order of investigation of Frist's sale in June of HCA Inc. shares, people with direct knowledge of the inquiry said yesterday. The order allows the agency's enforcement unit to subpoena documents and compel witnesses to testify, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the order hasn't been made public.

``This turns the flame up under the kettle and keeps the water boiling,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the independent Rothenberg Poltical Report in Washington. ``It means he's going to continue to be peppered with questions about this stock sale, and no politician wants to be questioned about things like that.''

A formal order requires the approval of at least one of the SEC's five commissioners. While it raises the legal stakes for Frist, a Tennessee Republican, it doesn't indicate that the SEC's investigators have uncovered evidence of illegal insider trading, said Michael Missal, a former enforcement lawyer at the agency.

<snip>

Frist, 53, directed the trustees of his blind trust to sell his shares on June 13, one month before the company said its second-quarter earnings would fail to meet analysts' estimates. The trustees notified Frist on July 1 that the shares had been sold. When HCA issued its earnings notice on July 13, the stock fell $4.86 to $50.05, the biggest decline in more than two years. During the two-week period when Frist's sale occurred, the shares averaged $57.21, reaching a 52-week high of $58.60 on June 22.

Nashville, Tennessee-based HCA, the biggest U.S. hospital chain, was founded by Frist's father and brother, who serves as a director on the company's board.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. AIG's Sullivan Says Global Property Insurance Rates Are Rising

Hey Ozy! You get the "crystal ball" award on this one



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=anp...

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Martin Sullivan said insurers, battered by Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the Gulf of Mexico last month, are raising commercial property rates around the world.

``We are already seeing rate increases being proposed in the property, energy -- on and offshore -- and the marine areas,'' Sullivan said yesterday in an interview in New York. ``The increases have not filtered into other lines of business. That's not to say they won't.''

Katrina, estimated to be the most costly disaster in the industry's history, is triggering widespread price increases following more than a year of declines, said Sullivan, who runs the world's largest insurer. Analysts haven't quantified expected rate gains and neither did Sullivan. After a record four hurricanes in Florida last year, property rates rose only in the damaged regions.

<snip>

``An event like this provides a catalyst for pricing,'' said Cathy Siefert, an analyst at Standard & Poor's in New York, who has a ``buy'' rating on AIG's stock. ``AIG's Katrina losses are manageable relative to their capital base. They are well positioned to benefit.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. AIG may run certain units with less capital, lower ratings

It would appear that the little blip that was to cause "no impact" has definitely impacted this corrupt corporation - and now it's going to cost a lot more.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American International Group (AIG) Chief Financial Officer Steven Bensinger said on Wednesday that the insurer may operate some of its businesses with less capital and lower ratings than it used to. Bensinger said that since AIG lost its triple-A ratings earlier this year, the company has realized that the cost of maintaining triple-A ratings for all its businesses was not justified by the benefits. AIG will be assessing the effects of different rating levels on its various businesses to optimize its capital. If the company concludes some of its businesses can operate with less capital and lower ratings, AIG will start discussing how to implement this with rating agencies, Bensinger added.

[UpInArms]

44. AIG says triple-A rating was not worth the cost

(I guess it costs to much to be honest and ethical )

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - American International Group Inc.'s (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Financial Officer Steven Bensinger said on Wednesday that the insurer's cost of maintaining its triple-A ratings was not worth the incremental benefits it provided.

Bensinger, speaking to investors, said its current double-A level ratings "...are sufficient for preponderance of businesses we conduct," Bensinger said.

AIG had been one of the few companies with a gilt-edged triple-A rating from all three major ratings agencies before losing it amid an accounting scandal earlier this year.

[UpInArms]

12. QC Holdings to close 19 stores in N. Carolina

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- QC Holdings Inc. (QCCO) Wednesday said it expects to close its 19 stores in North Carolina prior to December 1. The company anticipates it will record a charge of $2.5 million related to this decision, and it sees operating losses of about $1 million from these stores in the third quarter. In addition, the company said it has started operating as a credit services organization in its 18 Texas stores, as of Sept. 14. The stock closed Tuesday at $14.71, up 3.4%.

Qc Hldgs Inc Website Annual Report
9401 Indian Creek Parkway Overland Park Suite 1500 Phone: [phone]
Kansas KANSAS 66210

Fax: [phone]


QC Holdings, Inc.. The Group's principal activity is to provide payday loans in the United States. It operates 295 stores with locations in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin, as of 31-Mar-2004. It also provides other consumer financial products and services, such as check cashing services, title loans, money transfers and money orders.

[Tace]

14. MOGAMBO GURU: Things Are Worse Than You Think

September 28, 2005 -- I note with some surprise ("surprise!") that Total Fed Credit did not go up last week, at the same time that Treasury Gross National Debt did not go up last week, at the same time as Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt held at the Federal Reserve went down by another $3.5 billion dollars last week. I recall saying to myself, "Hmmm!" I cleverly use the word "hmmm" when I wish to indicate moderate surprise or interest, especially about things that happened last week.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock, writing at the WhiskeyandGunpowder.com site, notes that these latest reports notwithstanding, the national debt is growing, and that the growth rate in the national debt limit totals to "a stunning $3,015 billion ($3.015 trillion) in additional debt in just four years." I admit that it is hard to get your mind around the idea that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the USA is probably somewhere between $11 trillion and $12 trillion a year. So it is even harder to get your mind around the idea that in four short years we have borrowed -- in Treasury debt alone! -- the freaking equivalent of a quarter of everything America produces in goods and services in a whole freaking year! And this is just the INCREASE in the debt!

And when you add in the additions to personal debt (mortgages and other credit debt) and the increases in business debt, you are probably looking at another quarter of GDP. Together they add up to around half of GDP! America and Americans together borrowed, in 48 months, the equivalent of half of everything we make in a whole freaking year! If your heart is trying to commit suicide by pounding and slamming itself into the walls of your chest and your brain is convulsed in spasms, then congratulations, as you are really starting to get the hang of this economics stuff.

Mr. Shedlock also makes sport of what he refers to as "$Ben Bernanke" for "suggesting that the problem is not with the United States, but rather that the rest of the world is saving too much!" Perhaps. To find out, the next time you see "$Ben Bernanke," ask him where he thinks the rest of the world GOT the money to save? He won't tell you. But I will! The Mogambo, brave and mighty Mogambo (BAMM), will tell you and the world EXACTLY where they got the money. The money they save originated from our Federal Reserve! What a surprise, huh? If the damned American Federal Reserve had not increased money and credit so damned much, so unbelievably much, so impossibly much, then those pesky foreigners and their savings and their surplus of savings would not have happened. And our ability to get in so far, so dangerously far, so insanely far over our heads in debt would not have happened either.

None of this is lost on Addison Wiggin, best-selling author and insider at the DailyReckoning.com website, who is, incidentally, a guy I have actually met, but now is "too busy" to loan me a lousy five bucks, or even take my call, writes: "Now with pressure from all sides for the federal government to help citizens repair their lives in Katrina’s wake, spending could blow the 2006 deficit projection sky high -- shooting past last year's record of $412 billion.

(more)

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?story...

[AnneD]

71. Morning Marketeers,

I find myself agreeing with Mogambo more as each day passes. I figured we were in for the correction in 2000, but here we are in 2005 and really have not recovered (at least from the Main St perspective). Yeh yeh a few jobs have been created (and my young newly degreed friends are working on an extensive name tag/hair net collection), but things just haven't been as robust as I would have suspected. I truly think that the consumers have been tapping into the wealth of their houses via 2nd or 3rd mortgages and that has been what has sustained our growth over the last 5 yrs. Just about everyone I know with a home has refied and taken out equity. I know lots of people that have lost jobs but few that have gotten big promotions. And raises.....I get more lift from my bra. I have such a deep down in my gut feeling that our ship of state is navigating through the choppy waters and we are about to drift over the falls soon. Well, Happy Hunting, and watch out for the bears.....

[Tace]

104. AnneD -- I Love Him Because He's A Maniac Austrian Economist

Those Ludwig Van Mises guys are often so dry. Sane, but boring. He at least includes a teaspoon of sugar to help the medicine do down.

Also, he HATES Paul Krugman (or says he does, even for the sake of argument). I like Krugman, and always enjoy reading his columns. However, I enjoy seeing a counterpoint, and often the Mogambo does have a valid point when he takes on the academic economists. Cheers.

[UpInArms]

16. Treasurys hold early losses after mixed factory data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes extended price losses briefly after a report showed a larger-than-expected 3.3% rise in orders for durable goods during August. The market impact of the report's headlines was dulled somewhat by a revision to July's tally. It now showed a deeper 5.3% drop in orders. The 10-year note had since recovered some to trade exactly where it stood before the report, down 7/32, or not quite $2.50 per each $1,000 in securities, at 99 17/32. Its yield ($TNX) stood at 4.31% vs. 4.28%.

[RawMaterials]

18. Morning Marketers, Great Toon Ozy.

I tried real hard last election to swing some repubs on the debt issue, it work for some. I think this next election will surprise everyone, its the winds of change. That is if the elections are legit.

[RawMaterials]

19. Number of millionaires hits record

There are 700,000 more millionaire households this year than in 2004, according to a survey released Wednesday.

Households with a net worth of at least $1 million excluding primary residences rose 8 percent to a record high 8.9 million, according to an annual report by TNS Financial Services, a market research and polling firm.

snip..

The total income reported among millionaire households averaged $119,000. Among those households that drew some of their income from jobs, they earned an average of $82,000 in salaries or professional fees. The average age among the heads of these households was 56, and about 75 percent of them said they felt confident they will be financially prepared for retirement.
More millionaires on the way?

The TNS study also found that the number of "emerging affluent" households is also on the rise.

TNS defines "emerging affluent" as households with a net worth between $100,000 and $500,000, excluding primary residences.

This year, they number 24.5 million, up from 23.9 million in 2004.

snip..

The average age of the emerging affluent is 49.6, and the average total income reported is $64,600. Among those households that drew some of their income from jobs, they earned an average of $45,000 from salaries or professional fees.

Retirement confidence among these households is high: 69 percent said they felt they will be prepared for retirement.



http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/28/news/economy/millionair...


so has Millionaire lost its luster, I guess your nothing until your a billionaire.

[54anickel]

25. Income Down From 1999, Tax Data Show

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/28/business/28tax.html

The total income of Americans in 2003, adjusted for inflation, was 4 percent smaller than in 1999, new tax return data showed yesterday.

While the number of taxpayers grew by 5.6 million individuals and couples, average income fell even more - by 6.5 percent - while the average wage slipped slightly, with the average job paying $5 a week less.

Over all, incomes were $263 billion lower in 2003 than in 1999 when adjusted for inflation to 2004 dollars, according to data that the Internal Revenue Service posted yesterday on its Web site.

Most of this decline occurred among investors and others with incomes of $1 million or more. The number of Americans making that much fell by 12 percent, to 181,300 taxpayers in 2003, from 205,124 in 1999. Their average income fell, too, to just under $3 million, a decline of more than $572,000, or 16 percent. Over all, the income of this group fell by $190 billion, or 72 percent, of the total decline.

The figures at the top may be misleading, though, because the I.R.S. is much more accurate in capturing wage income than income from businesses and investments.

more...

[UpInArms]

27. Credit Card loan deliquencies hit record

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Credit card loan delinquencies reached a record high of 4.81% percent of accounts in the second quarter of this year, according to the American Bankers Association's Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin. The credit card loan delinquency ratio for the first quarter was revised upward to 4.76% of accounts from the previously reported 4.03%. The survey cited higher gas prices taking chunks out of wallets. Personal loan delinquencies rose to 1.94% from 1.83%. Direct auto loans rose to 2.07% percent from 2.04% Indirect auto loans rose to 2.08% from 1.87%.

[54anickel]

32. Families Strain to Make Do, Study Finds

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cost28sep28,1,277...

Sharply rising costs for housing, healthcare, transportation and child care have made it tougher for California households to make ends meet, according to a report to be released today.

Incomes required to achieve a "modest" standard of living here are generally far higher than the state's minimum wage or the federal poverty level, said the California Budget Project, a Sacramento-based nonprofit group focusing on issues affecting low- and middle-income Californians.

"A lot of people are struggling to get by," said Jean Ross, the organization's executive director.

For example, a family with two working parents and two children needs an annual income of $71,377 to cover basic costs of housing, utilities, child care, transportation, food, health coverage, taxes and miscellaneous expenses, without any public assistance and extras such as vacations and retirement savings, the report said.

The hourly wage of $17.16 that each parent must earn to obtain that annual income is far above the state minimum hourly wage of $6.75 and the federal poverty threshold of $9.21 for a family of four, according to the report. A two-parent family with one working parent needs the employed person to earn $24.60 an hour, while a single-parent household needs $25.96 and a single adult requires $12.44. The figures assume families are renters, not homeowners.

more...

[Roland99]

37. Are we sending mexed missages?

[RawMaterials]

38. Rich get Richer and EVERYONE else gets the shaft n/m

[Roland99]

40. Guess I'd better stock up on Vaseline.

[54anickel]

48. It's the reduction of the middle class. A few move up - that gives

a sense of hope to the others - hopes to keep them passive. Don't need a middle-class revolt now, do we?

But many others end up 1 or 2 steps back. Upper-middle to middle to lower-middle class.

By the way, when was the last time the definition of the poverty-level was adjusted for inflation? Cuz I believe a whole lot of those luckys in the lower-middle class are actually at the poverty level.

[UpInArms]

52. Here are the numbers from Jan 2001

Conference Board CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX conducted by NFO Research (methodology)	

.

Date		Index	Now	Expectation

.
Sept. 2005 *	86.6	108.9	71.7		
Aug. 2005 **	105.5	123.8	93.3		
July 2005	103.6	119.3	93.2		
June 2005	106.2	120.8	96.4		
May 2005	103.1	117.8	93.4		
April 2005	97.5	113.8	86.7		
March 2005	103.0	117.0	93.7		
Feb. 2005	104.4	116.8	96.1		
Jan. 2005	105.1	112.1	100.4		
Dec. 2004	102.7	105.7	100.7		
Nov. 2004	92.6	96.3	90.2		
Oct. 2004	92.9	94.0	92.2		
Sept. 2004	96.7	95.3	97.7		
Aug. 2004	98.7	100.7	97.3		
July 2004	105.7	106.4	105.3		
June 2004	102.8	105.9	100.8		
May 2004	93.1	90.5	94.8		
April 2004	93.0	90.4	94.8		
March 2004	88.5	84.4	91.3		
Feb. 2004	88.5	83.3	91.9		
Jan. 2004	97.7	86.1	105.3		
Dec. 2003	94.8	76.0	107.4		
Nov. 2003	92.5	81.0	100.1		
Oct. 2003	81.7	67.0	91.5		
Sept. 2003	77.0	59.7	88.5		
Aug. 2003	81.7	62.0	94.9		
July 2003	77.0	63.0	86.3		
June 2003	83.5	64.2	96.4		
May 2003	83.6	67.3	94.5		
April 2003	81.0	75.2	84.8		
Mar. 2003	61.4	61.4	61.4		
Feb. 2003	64.8	63.5	65.7		
Jan. 2003	78.8	75.3	81.1		
Dec. 2002	80.7	69.6	88.1		
Nov. 2002	84.9	78.3	89.3		
Oct. 2002	79.6	77.2	81.1		
Sept. 2002	93.7	88.5	97.2		
Aug. 2002	94.5	93.1	95.5		
July 2002	97.4	99.4	96.1		
June 2002	106.3	104.9	107.2		
May 2002	110.3	111.2	109.7		
April 2002	108.5	106.8	109.6		
March 2002	110.7	111.5	110.2		
Feb. 2002	95.0	96.4	94.0		
Jan. 2002	97.8	98.1	97.6		
Dec. 2001	94.6	97.8	92.4		
Nov. 2001	84.9	96.2	77.3		
Oct. 2001	85.3	107.2	70.7		
Sept. 2001	97.0	125.4	78.1		
Aug. 2001	114.0	144.5	93.7		
July 2001	116.3	151.3	92.9		
June 2001	118.9	156.8	93.5		
May 2001	116.1	159.6	87.1		
April 2001	109.9	156.0	79.1		
March 2001	116.9	167.5	83.1		
Feb. 2001	109.2	167.1	70.7		
Jan. 2001	115.7	170.4	79.3

To make the "headers" work, I changed them a bit -

Index = Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)

Now = Present Situation Index

Expectation = Expectations Index

[Roland99]

58. Reminds me of the June/July 2002 drop

And July 2002 is when I started a 7 mo. period of unemployment.






Well, I do start a new job in less than 2 weeks, though.

[UpInArms]

21. pre-opening blather

8:59AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. The stage remains set for the cash market's higher start. While the notion that the market may be temporarily oversold has helped equities rebound, end-of-the-quarter window dressing may also be acting as a contributing factor...U.S. markets are perhaps also taking a bullish cue from sizeable gains overseas, as Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 1.0%, while Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX 30, and France's CAC 40 have climbed 0.5%, 1.2%, and 1.0%, respectively...

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade ticks slightly upward following a larger than expected rise in durables and still suggests a higher open for the indices... July durable orders checked in at +3.3%, well ahead of economists' forecasts that called for a 0.7% rise and versus last month's 4.9% slide, while ex-transportation increased 4.2%... Treasuries, however, have extended early weakness; the 10-year note is off 8 ticks and now yields 4.31%...

8:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. The cash market is poised for a higher open today, ahead of the 8:30 release of August durable goods data (consensus 0.7%) and as traders perhaps eye bargains in the wake of 1.8%, 1.7%, and 2.0% respective declines in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq over the past two weeks...

[UpInArms]

22. another *Co appointee fleeing the sinking ship - Treasury's China Envoy

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The United States is pleased with China's currency steps but wants Beijing to move faster toward a free-floating yuan, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday.

Speaking on CNBC television, he said the Treasury's special envoy to China, Olin Wethington, would be stepping down and returning to private life and there would be an announcement soon relating to the diplomatic dialogue with Beijing.

He said China has expressed a commitment to allowing its currency be subject to market forces.

"It's going to take some time for them to implement that decision. I am confident they will. We're urging them to move faster," Snow said.

When asked about U.S. interest rates, Snow said rates would stay low as long as U.S. inflation stayed in check.

...more...

It appears that Olin Wethington was only on the job since May 2005!

NAM Welcomes Appointment of China Envoy Wethington

http://www.nam.org/s_nam/doc1.asp?CID=202255&DID=234177

WASHINGTON, May 20, 2005 – The National Association of Manufacturers today expressed enthusiasm for the naming of Olin Wethington as Treasury Secretary John Snow’s Special Envoy to China.

“Following on the heels of Treasury’s much tougher stance taken on China’s currency earlier this week,” said NAM Vice President for International Economic Affairs Frank Vargo, “the appointment of Olin Wethington as Special Envoy reinforces the Administration’s determination to press the Chinese to act.

“Having worked closely with Olin when the two of us were at the Commerce Department, I know what a terrific and goal-oriented individual he is,” Vargo continued. “Given his current role as Counselor to the Secretary and his education in Chinese history and language, he is a fabulous choice.”

Vargo said Wethington is sure to build on the “outstanding” work by the first special envoy to

China, Ambassador Paul Speltz. “Ambassador Speltz laid the groundwork, moving China toward currency flexibility, and we look forward to working as closely with his successor as we did with him.”

...more...

[54anickel]

30. Sheesh, that was short-lived. Wonder what's really going on there..n/t

[UpInArms]

23. casino is open to give folks the bidness

Dow 10,478.98 +22.77 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,122.01 +5.59 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,218.36 +2.70 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.305 +0.04 (+0.09%)

NYSE Volume 37,839,000
Nasdaq Volume 50,634,000

[Tace]

26. South African Gold Magnate Brett Kebble Shot Dead

By Stewart Bailey and Antony Sguazzin

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- South African millionaire Brett Kebble, who helped create two of the country's four largest gold producers, was shot dead last night near his home in Johannesburg, police and a family spokesman said.

Kebble, 41, was shot while driving on Johannesburg's Atholl- Oaklands road, Chris Wilken, a spokesman for the South African police, said in an interview today.

``He was shot between 9 p.m. and 9:15 p.m.,'' Wilken said. ``He may have been followed. He was shot while he was driving. More than one shot was fired.'' Nothing was taken from the car.

Kebble quit on Aug. 30 as head of Western Areas Ltd., joint owner of a $24 billion gold deposit near Johannesburg, and two other gold-investment companies after Western Areas ran out of money and he faced questions from investors in Randgold & Exploration Ltd., one of the companies, over the whereabouts of shares worth $268 million.

(more)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a...

[RawMaterials]

28. Copper peak ‘due to hedge funds’

Copper prices reached a fresh nominal high yesterday, on the day that Kazakhmys, a Kazakh copper miner, announced plans to list on the London Stock Exchange.


Analysts said the rise was driven by hedge fund buying prior to the end of the quarter, rather than by any fundamental trend.

Copper for three-month delivery peaked at $3,812 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, 1 per cent above Monday’s $3,775 close, before easing to $3,780.


snip..

Many analysts believe prices have overshot fundamentals. “There is a clear dislocation and a strong sense that copper is heading for a fall,” said Mr Moore, who sees global growth, and demand for copper, as constrained by rising US interest rates and high energy prices, while high copper prices encourage production.

Mr Moore thinks the crunch may come during “LME Week”, from October 31, when traders gather in London to negotiate future supply contracts. Copper prices fell sharply during this event last year. “Once that is out of the way, the gloves are off,” he said.

Natexis sees scope for profit taking as the quarter ends, paving the way for prices to slide to about $3,200 a tonne by the year’s end.



http://news.ft.com/cms/s/aefd048a-2f7d-11da-8b51-00000e...

[ozymandius]

29. Even at 6am those charts were looking spiky.

9:59
Dow 10,495.22 +39.01 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,122.74 +6.32 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,219.93 +4.27 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 43.02 +0.01 (+0.02%)
NYSE Volume 237,764,000
Nasdaq Volume 226,284,000

[RawMaterials]

33. Smaller Cars Enjoy New Chic

John Mathews of Universal Toyota in San Antonio has witnessed the day that auto industry executives in Detroit said would never come.

"We are seeing people who are driving $40,000 Suburbans trading them in on $15,000 Corollas," said Mathews, who manages a dealership in a state where big trucks and sport-utility vehicles rule the roads. "The last 30 days have been unlike anything I've ever seen in the automotive industry."

snip..

For the Big Three, Healy said, investment followed profit margins. "As long as the SUV segment was doing well, they poured money into that and neglected small cars," Healy said. "At that time you could have made a very good case that it was giving the public what it wants."

Healy and other analysts are predicting bleak results for Detroit automakers when they report sales results for September on Monday. Healy said large sport-utility vehicles will be especially hard-hit after climbing in the summer due to "employee pricing for everyone" discount pricing sales. "We're looking at 20, 30, 40 percent yearly declines," Healy said. The spike in gasoline prices and the summer incentives have crushed SUV sales now

snip..

Paul Ballew, GM's chief market analyst, said the level of consumer interest in small cars is being overplayed. He said Japanese automakers are benefiting most because of their experience in the segment, particularly in their home market. Meanwhile, Ballew said GM was having a "solid" small-car month, and he said GM will continue running its Lordstown, Ohio, plant where the Cobalt is assembled at a "very aggressive clip."

Ballew said GM will continue to watch the car market before making additional plans to bring out more small cars for American buyers. Honda and Toyota are moving forward. This month Honda launched the latest Civic that includes a remodeled hybrid and high-performance models. In recent years, Toyota launched the Scion brand -- a line of small cars that Toyota is marketing to younger buyers. Scion has a tight 7.2 days' supply.





http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...

can they really be that dumb?? they think its just a fad and its being over played.

[54anickel]

43. They are hiding their heads in the sand - they've put everything into

SUVs, ignoring all that was going on around them. The "fad" is simply wishful thinking on their part.

There seems to be some epidemic spreading quickly that originated in DC. Symptoms may include severe tunnel vision, feelings of euphoria, confusion, severe loss of all but immediate term memory, extreme denial.

Seek immediate medical attention should you, or a loved one, begin to have constant thoughts of "things are going well" when it's obviously contrary to the facts at hand.

[UpInArms]

45. did you hear about that other

new disease (there was a DU thread on this but I lost the link)

Gonorrhea Lectim


The Center for Disease Control has issued a warning about a new virulent Strain of Sexually Transmitted Disease. This disease is contracted through dangerous and high risk behavior.


The disease is called Gonorrhea Lectim (pronounced "gonna re-elect him."



Many victims contracted it in 2004, after having been screwed for the past 4 years, in spite of having taken measures to protect themselves from this especially troublesome disease.


Cognitive sequelae of individuals infected with Gonorrhea Lectim include, but are not limited to.


Anti-social personality disorder traits; delusions of grandeur with a
distinct messianic flavor.


chronic mangling of the English language.


extreme cognitive dissonance.


inability to incorporate new information; pronounced xenophobia.


inability to accept responsibility for actions.


exceptional cowardice masked by acts of misplaced bravado.


uncontrolled facial smirking; ignorance of geography and history.


tendencies toward creating evangelical theocracies.


and a strong propensity for categorical, all-or-nothing behavior.

The disease is sweeping Washington. Naturalists and epidemiologists are amazed and baffled that this malignant disease originated only a few years ago from a Texas Bush.

[54anickel]

49. OMG!!! IS there no vaccine available.....

Cuz I'm getting royally screwed by them son-of-a-bitches daily!!!!!

[UpInArms]

34. Crude Oil opens up at $65.35 bbl

10:04am 09/28/05 NOV CRUDE CLIMBS 28C TO $65.35/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:04am 09/28/05 OCT NATURAL GAS UP 4.4C AT $12.70/MLN BTUS

10:04am 09/28/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 2C AT $13.14/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

39. Energy prices climb ($65.50 bbl) ahead of U.S. supply update

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Energy prices climbed early Wednesday ahead of a weekly report from the Energy Department that most analysts expect to show a decline in crude, gasoline and distillate inventories for the week ended Sept. 23. The data will be released after 10:30 a.m. Eastern. November crude is up 43 cents at $65.50 a barrel. October heating oil is up $2.10 a gallon, up 1.5%, and October unleaded gasoline is up 2% at $2.21 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

67. NEW NATGAS PRICE RECORD: $13.45 mln btus

11:52am 09/28/05 NATGAS FUTURES HIT NEW RECORD AT $13.45 PER MILLION BTUS

[UpInArms]

78. Another NEW NATGAS RECORD: $14 mln btus

2:12pm 09/28/05 NATURAL-GAS FUTURES TOP $14/MLN BTUS TO REACH A NEW RECORD

2:12pm 09/28/05 NOV NATURAL GAS LAST UP 6.7% AT $13.95 AFTER $14.05 HIGH

Instead of getting better, it is getting worse!

2:07pm 09/28/05 80% DAILY GULF NATURAL-GAS OUTPUT OFFLINE VS. 78% TUES: MMS

[UpInArms]

69. Crude $66.40 bbl

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

excerpt:

Supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell 2.4 million barrels last week, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.0 million barrels in the week to Sept. 23.

U.S. crude oil futures <CLc1> for November delivery rose $1.33 to $66.40 a barrel.

John O'Brien, head of sales trading at KeyBanc Capital, said the market is still very focused on oil prices.

"People are very fearful about energy prices this coming winter," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

76. Crude at $67.25 bbl - up $2.18 today

1:47pm 09/28/05 NOV CRUDE UP $2.18, OR 3.4%, AT $67.25/BRL

1:47pm 09/28/05 OCT UNLEADED GAS UP 6.6%, OR 9.24C, AT $2.31/GAL

1:47pm 09/28/05 OCT HEATING OIL UP 4.3%, OR 8.89C, AT $2.1575/GAL

1:47pm 09/28/05 NOV NATURAL GAS NEARS $14/MLN BTUS

[54anickel]

35. U.K. Economic Growth Slowed to 12-Year Low in 2nd Qtr

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aB7...

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy expanded at the slowest annual pace in more than 12 years in the second quarter, reinforcing expectations Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown will have to scale back plans to increase spending.

Europe's second-largest economy grew 1.5 percent from a year earlier instead of the 1.8 percent estimated on Aug. 26, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. It was the slowest annual pace since the first quarter of 1993 and none of the 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the revision. The economy grew an unrevised 0.5 percent from the first quarter.

The International Monetary Fund said Sept. 21 Brown may have to raise taxes or curb his spending plans after slashing its U.K. growth forecast for this year to 1.9 percent from 2.6 percent, well below the 3-3.5 percent growth predicted by the Treasury in March. Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday put improvements to health and education at the center of the agenda for his third and final term in office, and Brown is counting on economic growth to pay for them.

``Brown's luck is running out at a crucial time,'' said Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre for Economics and Business Research Ltd, McWilliams. ``Whether growth comes in at 3 percent or 2 percent means relatively little to the general public, but whether their taxes go up or down does and he is going to have to raise taxes unless he cuts spending.''

more...

[Zynx]

101. Problem is most of their growth was fueled by housing.

The British housing boom was incredible, but now it is deflating and hurting the economy badly.

[54anickel]

102. Isn't housing what is fueling our consumer economy now too? Oh, but

it can't happen here.

I think what will happen here will be much worse.

[Zynx]

103. National price appreciation will slow to virtually nothing.

Various regions will show large declines and people are not well prepared to take the hit right now.

[UpInArms]

41. PIEHOLE ALERT: Terra! Terra! Terra!

10:30am 09/28/05 BUSH: IRAQI TROOPS ARE EARNING CONFIDENCE OF IRAQI PEOPLE

10:31am 09/28/05 BUSH: WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING VIOLENCE FROM TERRORISTS

10:29am 09/28/05 BUSH: WE'RE ON THE OFFENSE IN IRAQ; WE HAVE A PLAN TO WIN

10:28am 09/28/05 BUSH: IRAQI TROOPS HELPING KEEP CITIES SAFE FROM TERRORISTS

(is he telegraphing *Co's punches? expect more violence!)

[54anickel]

90. Must be in response to that report the other day that the majority of

al Qada in Iraq are Iraqis. Then there are those damned academia types making Kaen Hughes new job "questionable".

US academics urge Americans to listen to al-Qaeda

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=14645

snip>

"Since the attacks on New York and Washington, Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have delivered, respectively, 18 and 15 messages via audio or videotape making a three-part case: The United States must end its military presence in the Middle East, its uncritical political support and military aid of Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, and its support of corrupt and coercive regimes in the Arab and Muslim world," wrote Mohamedou in the Boston Globe under the headline "Time to talk to Al Qaeda?"


He said that "developing a strategy for the next phase of the global response to Al Qaeda requires understanding the enemy".


Mohamedou cited the analysis of the former head of the "bin Laden unit" at the CIA, Michael Scheuer, who is now a fierce critic of the Bush administration and its "War on Terror" policy.


During a recent speech at the US Army War College, Scheuer said that both militant and non-militant Muslims hated the United States "for what we do in the Islamic world, not for our democratic beliefs and civil liberties".


The speech was called "no strategy can defeat an enemy you refuse to understand".

The willingness of academics and opinion leaders in the US to address the issue in public reveals a change in the political climate inside the United States, according to some observers.

Damn, can't have THAT going on now, can we?

more...

[54anickel]

50. China's Hu: closet liberal or conservative?

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=reu...

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Communist Party chief Hu Jintao is as much of an enigma today as he was when he rose to power almost three years ago, still keeping the world guessing whether he is a closet liberal or an ultra-conservative.

The 62-year-old Hu, who doubles as state president, has sent mixed signals in recent months, tempering crackdowns on perceived threats to Communist rule with a bold decision to rehabilitate a reformist predecessor, Hu Yaobang, whose death sparked the 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests.

"Either Hu Jintao is trying to look like a liberal but is a hardcore conservative or he is a hidden liberal," said Benoit Vermander, director of the Ricci Institute of Taipei.

Hu Jintao had stirred hopes of a revival of political reforms, which stopped dead after the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen army massacre, when he ended a cover-up of a SARS outbreak in 2003 and sacked officials to instill accountability.

But dreams of a more open and benign China faded over the past year as the government tightened the noose on the media, the Internet, academia and non-governmental organizations.

more...

That outta stir up thoughts of a boggie-man for the Repukes - a cloaset LIBERAL?!? My god, that's even worse than a Communist - BWAHAHAHAHA

[54anickel]

51. Fed's Yellen hints more rate hikes ahead

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=bus...

LONDON (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen on Tuesday hinted the U.S. central bank would increase interest rates still further, saying the Fed must uphold its pledge to keep inflation subdued.

"The Federal Reserve must deliver -- again and again -- on its commitment to price stability," Yellen told members of Parliament at a conference convened by the European Economics and Financial Center.

An unacceptable rise in inflation is "clearly not on the table," Yellen said in her speech.

The U.S. economy faced various risks, including the impact of high energy prices and huge current account, trade and budget deficits but pushing monetary policy to a "neutral" stance remains "plausible, even probable," she added.

snip>

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Yellen's comments, which dealers said suggested the Fed was determined to stay ahead of inflation.

more....

HINTS?! Cripes Yellen is yellin' it - looks like it worked too

[54anickel]

53. RBA warning of 'meltdown'

http://theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,57...

FURTHER rises in oil prices, the collapse of a major bank or an unexpected jump in inflation could be all it takes to send the increasingly fragile global financial system into meltdown.

The Reserve Bank of Australia warned yesterday that the current calm in financial markets could be the prelude to a storm that could wreak havoc in the world economy.

The RBA believes the boom in markets for shares, bonds and housing in many countries is unsustainable.

The warning came as share prices in Australia reached a new high point, while a rush to invest in Australian bonds is pushing down long-term interest rates.

"The preconditions are in place for quite abrupt swings in sentiment and a disruptive snap-back in pricing," the central bank says in its latest review of the health of the financial system.

more...

[Roland99]

55. 11:15am numbers...

DJIA 10,498.20 +42.00
Nasdaq 2,123.43 +7.01
S&P 500 1,219.89 +4.23
Russell 2000 658.49 -0.68
CBOE Volatility 12.47 -0.29
30 Yr Bond 4.52 -0.04
10 Yr Bond 4.28 -0.02

[54anickel]

56. Passive indexers on the losing end of the bet

This sounds familiar, maybe it was posted earlier so sorry if it's a repeat. But I like this quote from the intro:

It’s immoral to let a sucker keep his money.

- Canada Bill Jones, 19th century poker player

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?cat...

snip>

A passive aggressive type, the Calling Station has no grasp of strategy, yet feels compelled to participate. He or she is happy to call the majority of bets, rarely raising or taking control of the hand. Analysis is minimal, actions robotic. The Calling Station’s attitude can be summed up as, “I don’t really know what I’m doing, but I’m just glad to be here.” A streak of good cards will occasionally reward this hapless style of play, but odds inevitably prevail over time. The Calling Station thus provides a steady stream of revenue for those who understand the importance of strategy and put it to use.



On Wall Street, the investing equivalent of the Calling Station is the Passive Indexer - the individual who seeks to unthinkingly mimic the performance of the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. Like his poker equivalent, the Passive Indexer is either unaware that strategy exists or unconvinced of its necessity - just happy to be a part of the action, hoping that luck or providence will provide a decent retirement. (Of course, the Passive Indexer is frequently encouraged to believe that providence is all he needs. This is rather like wolves encouraging sheep to believe the forest is safe.)



By contrasting the modest returns of passive indexing with the subpar returns of mutual funds, index touts pull off a neat trick: they make the bad look good by comparing it to worse. Adding insult to injury, many large mutual funds are actually “closet” indexers, charging for active management yet hugging the benchmarks anyway. This is like starting at the bottom and digging a hole.



In essence, passive indexing is the equivalent of a dog chasing its own tail. Selected companies grow larger as sums of indexed money robotically swell their market caps. As valuations rise, the indexers are encouraged by the boost. The process repeats in round robin fashion, with little thought for the objective worth of the companies receiving these blind inflows. Few question this puzzling lack of logic, thanks to a triumph of circular reasoning: the Efficient Market Hypothesis assumes that all valuations are intrinsically self-justified. This academic diktat reinforces the torrent of not just dumb, but brain-dead money. Most of us know the crucial economic benefit of a stock exchange is rational and efficient capital allocation, but we forget that rationality presupposes intelligent thought. As passive indexing gains in popularity, the principle of rational capital allocation is turned on its head and thrown out the window.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Hurricane George is heading straight for your Portfolio

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/sep232005.html

As if the damage from Hurricane Katrina was not bad enough, Hurricane George Bush has been gathering strength over the Potomac, and is now a category five monster headed straight for your portfolio. Likening his planned $200+ billion boondoggle to the “Marshal Plan” after the Second World War, Bush is ignoring a simple, but enormous distinction. In 1945, we had the savings necessary to tackle the World's problems; in 2005 we do not have adequate savings to pay for our own.

In my recent commentary “Nothing Saved for a Rainy Day,” (available on my web site at http://www.europac.net/archives.asp ) I pointed out that Americans, who have indulged their every whim while the sun shinned, have saved nothing for a “rainy” day. As a result, Hurricane Katrina struck the economy at a particularly vulnerable time. If we can not pay to rebuild the lost infrastructure out of accumulated savings, the only legitimate method is to reduce current consumption. Therefore, if President Bush wants to divert scarce resources to rebuild the Gulf Coast, he either needs to raise taxes or reduce other expenditures to pay for it. However, the President wants to pretend that the Gulf Coast can be rebuilt without anyone sacrificing anything, and without any adverse consequences for the over-all economy.

If, as a nation, we had adequate savings, this would have been possible, as we would have already sacrificed during the time period such savings were accumulated. However, by indulging ourselves in the present, we put off such sacrifices for the future. Unfortunately, the future has finally caught up with us. Americans need to reduce their consumption if resources are to be freed up to rebuild the Gulf Coast. Since our economy is over 80% consumption, a recession would naturally follow.

snip>

Though the President may have a God complex, he can not work miracles. Without tax increases or spending cuts, the only other ways to pay for his plan is though borrowing, which means even greater future sacrifices, in the form of tax increases or spending cuts, or through inflation. Since America’s foreign creditors are already cutting back on their lending, inflation seems to be the more likely alternative. The recent surge in the price of gold would seem to validate this conclusion.

Do not be fooled by the President’s pledge not to raising taxes. Inflation acts like a hidden tax, allowing government to transfer purchasing power from the public to itself. The government finances spending though inflation by issuing bonds that are subsequently purchased by the Federal Reserve, thereby creating new dollars that reduce the purchasing power of existing dollars. The result is that consumer prices rise to reflect the dollar’s diminished value. Therefore, if the public does not pay higher income taxes to pay to rebuild the Gulf, it will certainly pay higher inflation taxes instead, as the real values of their incomes and savings will be diminished.

more...

[nolabels]

82. Real estate

With fair to low interest rate mortgage (if you need a mortgage) will probably only buffer for a little while.

The rich folks knew this was going to happen in the future and put * and the cronies in the seats to chop down the top tax brackets so the little folks could get screwed more than them

[54anickel]

59. Wall Street storm may be brewing

Why regulators are looking at hedge funds and derivatives -- and how they could affect you.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/23/markets/high_finance/in...

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - In the summer blockbuster "War of the Worlds," ordinary Americans are forced to run for their lives when alien invaders wreak havoc on their planet.

What the victims didn't know was that the seeds for the attack had been germinating beneath their feet for years.

While that was a movie, some financial regulators fear that a less dramatic but similar scenario could be developing in the nation's financial markets.

Their target? Two key segments of the markets -- hedge funds and credit derivatives -- that have been mostly invisible to many ordinary investors but have grown to massive proportions in recent years.

What's making regulators take notice now? Many complex factors, but it boils down to this: those pieces of the capital markets have grown so big so fast, and are so complicated, that any problems could mushroom and spark big losses -- and huge volatility -- for investors around the world.

more...

[UpInArms]

61. see my post #60 - gack!

that is one astronomical growth rate and with little or no oversight - poor reporting and a crappy "back office" system.

[54anickel]

65. All achievable thanks to Greenspin and his past love affair with them

and their "additional liquidity" they provided.

[UpInArms]

60. Credit derivatives market grows 48% in first half -ISDA

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The credit derivatives market grew by almost 48 percent in the first six months of the year to $12.4 trillion, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA) said on Wednesday.

The growth-rate represents a year-on-year expansion of 128 percent, from $5.44 trillion at the end of June 2004.

Credit derivatives, for the purposes of the survey, comprise credit default swaps, baskets and portfolio transactions indexed to single names, indexes, baskets, and portfolios.

The market, which allows investors to take leveraged positive and negative views on the outlook for companies, has grown exponentially, as low returns in stocks and corporate bonds fuelled demand for higher yielding alternatives.

Elsewhere, the market in interest rate swaps also grew quickly. The notional principal outstanding volume of interest rate derivatives, which include interest rate swaps and options and cross-currency swaps, grew by almost 10 percent to $201.4 trillion, from $183.6 trillion.

<snip>

Regulators are concerned that the failure to keep up with the processing of new deals could cause chaos if there were a sudden sell-off. Delays in processing trades could lead to disputes over payments in the event of a default, as well as confusion over the degree of bank exposure to counterparties.

...more...

[UpInArms]

63. 11:48 EST momentum lost and today's blather catch-up

Dow 10,465.44 +9.23 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,118.04 +1.62 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,217.19 +1.53 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.283 -0.18 (-0.42%)

NYSE Volume 816,147,000
Nasdaq Volume 722,063,000

11:30 The indices edge off of recently-hit highs but maintain solid footing. Leadership is little changed, with Utilities (+1.0%) and Tech (+0.9%) pacing the way higher and Healthcare (+0.5%) and Financials (+0.3%) lending muscle. Brokers are a bright spot today, up 1.1% and extending a 7.6% year-to-date gain amid broad-based buying interest that has sent Merrill Lynch (MER 60.30 +0.90) and Lehman Brothers (LEH 117.69 +1.69) up 1.5 %, and Morgan Stanley (MWD 52.91 +0.54) up 1.0%... On the other side of the aisle sits Energy (-0.1%) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.1%), which vacillates around the flat line on account of continued weakness in homebuilders (-1.2%) and retailers (-0.3%)... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1787/1208. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1320/1383.

11:00 Crude oil slumps to session low following the EIA data, to $65.05/bbl, helping the indices reach session highs. At the same time, the Energy sector sits alone below the flat line as only 5 of the sectors 29 components are trending positive. To that end, Exxon Mobil (XOM 63.96 -0.66) is one of the Dow's current laggards, but gains in components that span the market's spectrum eclipse its 1.0% decline. Particularly, IBM (IBM 79.40 +1.41), Coca-Cola (KO 42.83 +0.50), and McDonald's (MCD 33.51 +0.50) lend respective 1.8%, 1.2%, and 1.5% gains to the blue chip average... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1763/1177. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1296/1343.

10:35 The market inches higher initially following the EIA's weekly inventory report which indicated that crude inventories fell 2.4 mln barrels, vs. an expected -1.8 mln barrel drop, while gasoline supply unexpectedly rose 4.4 mln barrels (consensus -2.3 mln bbl) and distillates inventories declined -0.5 mln barrels (consensus -1.9 mln bbl). Separately, temporarily oversold conditions, amid respective declines of 2.4%, 2.1% and 2.7% in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq over the last two weeks, may be fueling some bargain hunting opportunities, and end-of-the-quarter window dressing may also be acting as a contributing factor behind buying efforts. With only two days remaining before Q3 comes to a close, several stocks could get an additional boost over the next couple of sessions as fund managers look to improve the appearance of their portfolios. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1667/1173. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1200/1334.

10:00 The major averages hold their stance while each sector similarly holds steady... The Utilities sector has surfaced as the early leader, up 1.0% after Excelon (EXC 55.20 +1.20) issued upside FY05 guidance this morning, foreseeing EPS in the upper half of its previously guided range ($3.00-3.15 vs. the $3.13 consensus), and upon reports that NRG (NRG 42.75 +1.22) is in advanced talks to acquire Texas Genco for about $5 bln... It's the Tech sector's 0.7% gain that offers the strongest support, though, bolstered by 1.0% rises in both semiconductors and networking, along with substantial gains in the likes of Dell (DELL 34.35 +0.38), Microsoft (MSFT), and IBM (IBM). For their part, Dell shares have jumped 1.1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company plans to unveil a new line of upscale items... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1609/693. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1040/1215.

9:40 As futures trade had presaged, the equity market opened on the upside - with each of the three major indices on positive footing and ten of ten sectors trading in similar fashion. With little corporate news crossing the morning's wires, few Q3 profit warnings, and better than expected durables data (+3.3% for Aug., vs. +0.7% consensus) underpinning an upbeat sentiment, traders may be focusing on heightened expectations for Q3 aggregate earnings growth of around 18% that could give the market a mid-October lift... While prices across the energy complex are heading north, which typically act as market constraint, investors may be waiting for the EIA's 10:30 ET weekly inventory report before reacting... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

[UpInArms]

68. 12:14 EST and bleeding

Dow 10,444.90 -11.31 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,112.44 -3.98 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,214.28 -1.38 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.278 -0.23 (-0.53%)

NYSE Volume 936,703,000
Nasdaq Volume 822,156,000

12:05 Following respective declines of 2.4%, 2.1% and 2.7% in the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq over the last two weeks, and after flat sessions for the first two days of this week, the equity market opened higher and, although highs hit this morning have been halved, in large part to a spike in oil prices, it has maintained a positive stance heading into the lunch hour. With little corporate news to cloud sentiment, a blank earnings calendar, and some better-than-expected economic data, traders have found reason to seize some bargain hunting opportunities. With the market's focus shifting towards heightened expectations for Q3 aggregate earnings, which calls for growth of around 18%, and with end-of-the-quarter window dressing during Q3's final sessions spurring further action, buying efforts have been broad-based today... To that end, eight of ten economic sectors have chalked gains. The Utilities sector's 1.1% rise, which puts it in first place, is largely due to reaffirmed upside FY05 and FY06 guidance from FPL Group (FPL 46.75 +1.41) that's led to a 3.1% surge in the company's shares. Exelon Corp (EXC 54.34 +0.34) similarly issued upside FY05 guidance this morning, and extends a modest 0.6% gain to the sector within which only two of 33 components sport losses... A modest recovery in the bond market, with the 10-year is now up 4 ticks to yield 4.26%, may be further aiding the rate-sensitive sector. While Utilities' gain leads, it's the Tech sector's 0.6% rise that lends the strongest muscle to the overall market. Also experiencing wide-spread buying interest, the sector is supported by a 1.3% surge in networking, by semiconductors' 0.7% gain, and by bellwethers' solid standings... As for the laggards, Industrials (-0.04%) has recently dropped into the red, joining the worst-performing Consumer Discretionary sector that's adding today's 0.3% decline to its 8.8% year-to-date loss - a decline matched only by Materials. Consolidation within homebuilders (-1.3%) has bogged down the sector, pairing with retailers' 1.1% slide to offset leading Dow component McDonalds' (MCD 33.52 +0.51) rise... A better than expected inventory report form the EIA, however, may help limit the sector's decline. Gasoline rose an unexpected 4.4 mln barrels (consensus - 2.3 mln bbls) and distillates fell 573K vs. an expected 1.89 mln barrel fall. Conversely, crude supply fell 2.4 mln barrels, reflecting a much larger than expected decline (consensus 1.7 mln bbls) Separately, the morning read on August durables has helped fuel early bullishness. Rising 3.3%, orders sharply exceeded economists' expected 0.7% rise and last month's 4.9% decline... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1652/1458. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1218/1563.

[ozymandius]

72. Jeebus! I thought I'd come back to people holding hands, loving each other

but the love is just plain gone.

(12:39)
Dow 10,454.70 -1.51 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,113.78 -2.64 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,215.57 -0.09 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 42.66 -0.35 (-0.81%)
NYSE Volume 1,036,471,000
Nasdaq Volume 904,935,000

[UpInArms]

74. 1:20 EST love lies bleeding

Dow 10,450.00 -6.21 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,112.99 -3.43 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,215.29 -0.37 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.274 -0.27 (-0.63%)

NYSE Volume 1,175,395,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,016,170,000

1:00 Vacillating around the flat line, the indices continue to struggle amid crude's continued momentum (+$1.43 $66.50/bbl) and accompanying strength in gasoline (+$0.71 2.24/gal) and natural gas (+$0.67 $13.33/ mln BTUs) futures. The Financial sector's (-0.3%) status weighs heaviest upon the market, stunting upward efforts and offsetting Tech's 0.3% gain, Utilities' 0.7% rise, and Telecom Services' 0.6% increase. Brokers hang on to a 0.9% gain, but are unable to counter broad-based weakness that leaves banks off 0.8%, exacerbating the 9.6% loss the group has chalked for the year, REITs down 1.3%, and asset managers with a 0.7% loss... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1548/1628. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1126/1719.

12:30 As the price of crude spikes higer (+$1.53 $66.50/bbl), the indices relinquish gains and fall into negative territory... Despite an unexpected build in gasoline inventories, which rose 4.4 mln barrels (consensus -2.3 mln), and a smaller than expected draw down in distillates, which fell 573K barrels (consensus -1.89 mln), oil prices surged 2.3% following a larger than expected decline in crude inventories of 2.4 mln barrels (consensus -1.7 mln) and amid growing signs of higher heating bills this winter thanks to inventory shortfalls, as evidenced in natural gas futures hitting a historic high around $13.45 mln/btu... Following suit, the Energy sector (+0.1%) has pared its loss, leaving the Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%), Healthcare (-0.1%), Industrials (-0.2%), and Financial (-0.3%) sectors in the red... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1602/1552. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1052/1751.

[54anickel]

66. Gazprom to Buy Sibneft Stake for $13.01B

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...

MOSCOW -- Gazprom, the world's largest natural-gas producer, has agreed to buy a majority stake in the Sibneft oil company for $13.01 billion in a deal that will significantly further the state-controlled company's stature in the oil sector as Russian President Vladimir Putin moves to recapture government influence in the lucrative energy industry.

Gazprom, which came under state control in June when the government increased its stake to above 50 percent, has long been groomed as a state energy company to rival Saudi Arabia's Aramco.

The companies said an agreement was signed Wednesday between Gazprom and Sibneft's owner, Millhouse Capital, a holding company controlled by Roman Abramovich, the billionaire owner of the Chelsea soccer club in Great Britain.

The deal provides for Gazprom to purchase 72.663 percent of Sibneft shares, the companies said in a statement.

snip>

Western banks are reportedly ready to offer a $12 billion loan to fund the deal _ the largest such loan in Russia's post-Soviet history.

more...

[UpInArms]

70. BASEL II: Unease persists as Fed readies next move

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC8795...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Lawmakers and banking industry representatives were critical of a proposed global banking agreement Wednesday as the Federal Reserve moved to announce the next U.S. steps on the accord.

Reps. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala., and Barney Frank, D-Mass., said at a congressional hearing they are concerned about the Basel II agreement's impact on the U.S. banking industry.

Agreed to last year and slated to be phased in beginning 2007, the Basel II rules are designed to standardize minimum capital requirements and prevent banking crises from spreading across the globe.

But Bachus, Frank and industry representatives who testified to a House Financial Services subcommittee said the Fed and other U.S. regulators need to take a hard look before subjecting American banks to the Basel II rules.

"We're hearing from numerous institutions about concerns they have," said Bachus.

Frank worried that Basel II accelerates what he called a trend toward banking consolidation and said he failed to see the need for the accord in the first place.

...more...

[loudsue]

77. I wonder if the Delay indictments are going to cause market bleeding..

Since Tom Delay has been indicted, if the plunge protection team thinks their protection is going to melt, I wonder what effect it will have.

Corruption being handled = markets go up?
or Corruption being handled = markets go down?

We'll see!!! I wonder if it will have any effect at all?

[UpInArms]

81. fairies showed up - all is well

don't look at the price of crude or natgas - don't see that huge lumpy carpet where pieces of lies and slime stick out from under it in every direction - we're doing great!

[UpInArms]

79. Chevron names Donald Rice to Board

and who is "Donald Rice"?
The Slick Business of Oil
Story of Power, Politics, Petroleum and Pipelines

http://www.defencejournal.com/2002/august/slick.htm

excerpt:

UNOCAL has hired some powerful former government officials. Charles Larson, former commander-in-Chief of the US Navy’s Pacific Command and Donald Rice, former Secretary of Air Force during Bush Senior term sit on the board. Robert Oakley, former US ambassador to Pakistan has also worked for Unocal. Many top former US officials including James Baker (former Secretary of State), Brent Scrowcroft (former national security advisor) and John Sununu (former White House Chief of Staff) are also involved in energy sector.

2:16pm 09/28/05 CHEVRON'S RICE WAS UNOCAL BOARD MEMBER UNTIL ACQUISITION

2:17pm 09/28/05 CHEVRON SHARES UP 56C AT $64.74

2:13pm 09/28/05 CHEVRON NAMES DONALD RICE TO BOARD

[UpInArms]

80. 2:26 EST fairy dust all over the floor

Dow 10,475.08 +18.87 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,120.38 +3.96 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,218.83 +3.17 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254 -0.47 (-1.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,452,338,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,234,053,000

2:00 The indices carve out fresh session lows while the Treasury market conversely hits its best levels of the day. With traders speculating that surging prices across the oil complex will keep inflation in check, the 30-year note, which is the most sensitive to yield-eroding inflationary pressures, has jumped 21 ticks to a 4.50% yield. The benchmark 10-year note, meanwhile, has risen 8 ticks and currently offers investors a yield of 4.25%. Despite the bond market's strength, though, banks still languish and drag the Financial sector (-0.5%) through the 0.9% loss it extends... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1497/1712. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1045/1842.

[Roland99]

84. Fairy dust has been unevenly distributed:

DJIA 10,479.00 +22.80
Nasdaq 2,116.21 -0.21
S&P 500 1,217.52 +1.86
Russell 2000 655.69 -3.48
CBOE Volatility 12.59 -0.17
30 Yr Bond 4.50 -0.06
10 Yr Bond 4.26 -0.04

[DemInDistress]

93. Thats quite a dossier you posted today.I read most of it

and like to thank you for the insight.I have no stocks or bonds and
presently unemployed.I do like to watch the market swings and wonder
when will the economy collapse? Thanks again for the insight !!!

this bud's for you

[UpInArms]

94. Hi there, DemInDistress!

glad to have you drop in to the SMW!



I think that we're probably going to need more than one

But I'll join you with thanks!

[lovuian]

85. Anybody see the drop in Faniie Mae Stock of 5.oo dollars!!!

Wassup with that???

[UpInArms]

86. maybe this?

Fannie Mae's retained portfolio shrinks in August

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest U.S. home funding company, said on Wednesday its mortgage portfolio slumped by an annualized 27.1 percent in August, to $768.3 billion, its tenth consecutive monthly decline.

That followed a 25.3 percent decline in July.

The Washington-based company's average duration gap, a measure of its interest rate risk exposure, was at zero months in August versus plus one month in July. This gauges the difference between the duration of assets and liabilities in the company's mortgage portfolio.

[UpInArms]

87. Here it is: Fannie Mae shares plunge on report of probe

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?...

WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Shares in Fannie Mae plunged on Wednesday after a report saying regulators found new accounting violations at the mortgage finance enterprise, which is already under scrutiny for bookkeeping distortions.

A spokeswoman for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which oversees Fannie Mae's financial soundness, would not confirm or deny on Wednesday a Dow Jones report that the regulator has found extensive additional problems.

"We have an ongoing examination and I have no comment," said Corinne Russell, a spokeswoman for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares tumbled following the story, which said investigators discovered evidence executives overvalued assets, underreported credit losses, and misused tax credits. The article cited unnamed sources close to, or who have been involved in, the inquiries.

<snip>

The drop wiped out more than $4 billion of the stock's market value.

...more...

YOWZER!!!!

[54anickel]

88. Again with the violations? Geez! But remember, they are not too big

to fail - ain't that what Greenie and Snow were saying?

[CountAllVotes]

91. pop goes the bubble

Thanks for the link!

Fannine Mae is just the beginning. Bookkeeping errors oh yeah right.

$4 billion in losses in ONE DAY!

Hang-on, the market is about to EXPLODE!

[UpInArms]

89. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,473.09 +16.88 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,115.40 -1.02 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,216.89 +1.23 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.262 -0.39 (-0.91%)

NYSE Volume 2,106,937,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,742,857,000

Soaring prices across the energy complex dictated most of today's trading, stalling early bargain hunting efforts spurred in part by encouraging durable good data... With little news on the corporate front to impact sentiment, and with a virtually blank earnings calendar, the 3.3% increase in Aug. durable orders, versus economists' expected 0.7% rise and on top of July's 4.9% decline, wielded some early upward traction. End-of-the-quarter window dressing on the part of portfolio managers, realizing that today was Q3's third to last session, also contributed to early buying interest. But the EIA's weekly report stunted northbound efforts as a larger than expected draw down in crude inventories (-2.4 mln barrels vs. -1.7 mln consensys) offset a better than expected supply status of both gasoline and distillate supplies. The commodity closed 2.0% higher, at $66.40/bbl, but it was natural gas' surge to an all-time high of $14.150 mln/btu that stood center stage...

With the close of trading in the commodity pits came some regained momentum in the equity market; but, essentially, the indices could not find their way out of the session's trading range...

Leadership was scarce for the better part of the session, with Energy (+0.9%) unsurprisingly benefiting from racing energy prices and Telecom Services (+1.2%) and Utilities (+0.8%) standing as the best performers...

As the trio, combined, accounts for a mere 15% of the market, their gains were far outweighed by a languishing Financial sector (-0.3%), a flip-flopping Tech sector (+0.7%), and a passive Healthcare sector (+0.1%)...

Despite strength in the Treasury market, banks closed with a 0.6% loss and countered relative strength in brokerage and insurance. Thrifts & mortgage were especial sore spots following reports of new accounting problems at Fannie Mae (FNM 41.62 -5.08), which sent shares of the mortgage giant tumbling 10.9% to a new 52-week low, dragging smaller rival Freddie Mac (FRE 54.46 -1.24) down with it...

Regardless of its choppy session, Tech (+0.6%) managed to close with a respectable gain, bolstered by outperformance in networking (+2.1%), strength in semis (+0.6%), but capped by Apple (AAPL 51.14 -2.30), which tumbled over 4% upon nano-related negative news and an analyst downgrade. Nonetheless, the tech-heavy Nasdaq relinquished its gain and closed to the downside...

The Consumer Discretionary sector spent the session trending negative, hurt by energy prices, homebuilders' (-0.9%) extended weakness, and retailers' -1.3% drag which negated the effects of modest gains autos and media, and an analyst upgrade on Stanley Works (SWK 45.98 +1.32)...

Consumer Staples (+0.2%), on the other hand, clung to its gain all day, attracting buying interest on account of its safe-haven quality and bolstered by Coca-Cola's (KO 42.89 +0.56) extended strength. Bonds' strength, triggered by traders' sense that energy prices would slow the economy and squelch yield-eroding inflation, bolstered rate-sensitive Utilities alongside upside guidance from Exelon (EXC 53.68 -0.32) and FPL Group (FPL 46.90 +1.56)... In addition, NRG's (NRG 42.92 +1.39) reported bid for Texas Genco served as some further support...

To that end, the inflation-sensitive 30-year note jumped 19 ticks, yielding 4.50%, while the benchmark 10-year rose five ticks, to 4.26%...
..DJTA +1.07%. ..DJUA +1.03%. ..SOX +0.47%. ..DOT +0.08%. ..XOI +1.19%. ..BTK +0.61%. ..Nasdaq 100 0.00%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -0.18%. ..Russell 2000 -0.49%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1666/1611. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1248/1730.

[54anickel]

92. So the markets and the buck hold fairly steady for yet another day -

yet look at gold! Getting tougher for the Fed to juggle all these balls at once.

[UpInArms]

95. tick..tick..tick..tick..

I wonder when it will just blow up in their faces.

[54anickel]

96. Hey UIA, check this one out - money supply is flowing backwards

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?cat...

snip>

We never expected our research to lead us where it has. Our observations have led us to the doorsteps of our homes. This analysis brings together the information in our “Consumer Cash Flow”, “The Housing Bubble-An Update”, and “The Interest Rate Conundrum” papers also available on our website at www.piscataquaresearch.com . In this analysis, we integrate the effects of consumer cash flow and the real estate market with consumer money supply. The result is as close to an economic “smoking gun” as we can imagine. The fingerprints on the gun are those of the Federal Reserve. The diagram on page 2 shows that consumer money supply now flows backward. We have a “vacuum” condition where consumption and debt service drains money out of the M-1 money supply faster than the consumer replaces it with income. Consumers must now resort to increasingly large real estate debts to manage their money needs.

Household Cash Flow Model

We have restructured the information that we gathered in our previous papers to show the interaction of consumer cash flow and consumer money supply. Historically, money supply flows from left to right in this model. Consumer daily life usually produces surplus funds that can be used for consumer investing.

In 2005, money is flowing backward; or from right to left. The consumer needs to constantly replenish M-1 with funds from non-M-1 M-2 in order to avoid a liquidity crunch. This means that long-term investing is the source of the funds for daily life instead of daily life being the source of funds for long-term investing.



more...

[UpInArms]

97. oh.my.god

we are now forced to consume ourselves - our futures, our children's futures, our grandchildren's futures.

What a horrible picture of the future.

3rd world nation - we are soon to be (if we are not already).

[54anickel]

99. And what happens when foreigners totally lose their appetitie for

US bucks? I would think they are pretty unhappy today with the hit they took on their GSE holdings.

We are no longer a rich, leading nation...we only play one on TV and the world is getting damned tired of the reruns.

[loudsue]

98. That's pretty scary, 54anickel!

But you can see it everywhere you look, in the real world.

I don't care what the talking heads say, we're in some kind of deep financial dookie in this country.

Thanks for posting this!