CNN projection: Davis out, Schwarzenegger wins

[goobergunch]

Tuesday, October 7, 2003 Posted: 11:02 PM EDT (0302 GMT)

LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) -- CNN projects that California's electorate will recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and choose actor-turned-politician, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as the Golden State's next governor, based on statewide exit polls.

Davis, re-elected to a second term less than a year ago, would become the first governor recalled from office since 1921, when North Dakota voters ousted Gov. Lynn Frazier.

The race -- borne out of voter discontent with the California economy and dissatisfaction with the incumbent Democrat's leadership -- tightened in the closing days, marked by accusations against front-running replacement candidate Schwarzenegger, and charges of ugly politics.

Polls closed at 8 p.m. (11 p.m. EDT).

more...http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/10/07/recall.main/i...

It is my sad duty to report that it appears Arnold Schwartznegger will be the next governor of California.

For real-time numbers, use the second link in my sig line.

[FlashHarry]

1. How the hell can they call it so soon?

What about absentee balots? Have all precincts reported?

[buff2]

5. I think they don't count absentee ballots......

Unless the repukes NEED them!

[Matilda]

47. Are you serious?

Can they really not count absentee ballots? Surely every legal vote
must be counted (I'm Austalian, and there are some things that are
different with your voting system to I don't know whether you're
serious, or making a black joke.

[Trek234]

57. He is not serious

All votes must be counted unless they are ruled void for some reason.

[azrak]

58. Absentee ballots

were tabulated during the day and ready to enter as soon as the polls closed. The only major absentee vote you will see are the last minute people and the ones actually dropped off at the polls. That is a very small percentage. Some of the early returns are from absentee ballots.

In reality absentees vote in about the same percentages as poll voters. With a SLIGHT more right lean, due to the military etc.,

I stand by my earlier 30% prediction.DU represents less than 30% of Democratic voters.

[goobergunch]

11. That's what I was wondering (n/t)

[Vitruvius]

33. The media's exit poll results are ONLY thru MID-AFTERNOON, as of now

(11:30pm EST, 8:30pm PST).

From the New York Times story as of now: "...a survey of voters leaving the polls through mid-afternoon, conducted for The New York Times and other news organizations, showed that a majority wanted to oust Mr. Davis, and a clear plurality preferred Mr. Schwarzenegger as his replacement.

"Polling experts cautioned that the numbers could tighten as the preferences of later voters were tallied.

----- -----

The "later turnout" is the people voting after work -- when, according to an earlier New York Times piece, a big turn-out is expected.

The exit polls, as of now are only of people who do not have to be at work during the day. This is not a representative sample, and, in fact, is apt to be somewhat biased Rethugnican -- because Rethugs -- as a group -- are richer, and have more people who set their own hours (as opposed to punching the clock), more stay-at-home wives, etc.

Nevertheless, things do not look good -- whether the situation (including the exit poll) is rigged or genuine.

Vitruvius

P.S: Ahnuld is still guilty of serial sexual assault -- and is still vulnerable to investigation -- both by the press, and by the law. I hope the CA Democratic establishment has the gumption to push those investigations (is the CA Attorney General a Democrat?).

And thereby set up for a recall of Arnold. He's riding high now -- but we may yet see him get their just desserts; out of office (IF he gets in tonite), and with legal troubles. (There's also the option of private lawsuits; given what's come out so far, Ah-nuld groped on an industrial scale; could there be enough plaintiffs for a class action?)


On the lighter side, Arianna Huffington was on The Daily Show, saying that Ahnuld knows nothing, would do little, but would be "a very HANDS-ON governor".

[Athame]

63. So soon????? SO SOOON!!!

Look at the dateline on this story.

Tuesday, October 7, 2003 Posted: 11:02 PM EDT (0302 GMT)

LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) -- CNN projects that California's electorate will recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and choose actor-turned-politician, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as the Golden State's next governor, based on statewide exit polls.
****************************
That is exactly TWO MINUTES after polls closed. Zero percent reporting. This is disgusting.

Another thing, Prop 54 going down two to one. That means the Dems did come out in droves. How could they have voted down Prop 54 and voted for the recall in same proportion? This does not make sense!!

[goobergunch]

68. It was earlier than that

As you can see, my post time was 11:00 PM EDT. At 10:59 EDT (while the polls were still open), Wolf Blitzer at CNN was saying that they could project a winner. As the clock ticked over to 11:00 EDT, CNN's recall projection popped up.

Therefore, they were tantamount to projecting the election before the polls had even closed.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. Just heard it

n/t

[Maddy McCall]

3. MSNBC: Arnold is PROJECTED winner based on exit polls.

Link to come. Matthews just said that this will provoke "a left-wing backlash." MY ASS!

Edit: Link: http://www.msnbc.com/news/945950.asp?0cv=CA01

[symbolman]

4. THE

VOTES HAVE NOT BEEN COUNTED!! HOW CAN THIS BE POSSIBLE?

FRAUD!!!!!!!!!

[Loyal]

7. there's something called exit polls,

and inferential statistics, buddy. I'm as mad as you that Arnold won, but they called it right.

[buff2]

9. Why do people bother to vote absentee?????

This happens EVERY election. They call the winner BEFORE any absentee ballots are counted. The declared Jebthro bu$h the winner not too long after the polls closed,if you remember. Elections are being stolen by the repigs and the people don't give a shit.

[Maddy McCall]

10. Wrong question. You should wonder why media outlets call an election

when so many people voted absentee and those votes have yet to be counted?

[Nevernose]

22. Are they ever wrong?

At least, since Dewey defeated Truman? They sure as hell weren't wrong in Florida...

[freeforall]

35. Wrong in Florida

I was living in NYC and watching this live at the time, and the media was calling the election for Gore. Then they had to backtrack.

[comsymp]

I think that's Argumentus' point

They called Fla for Gore who, as has been shown repeatedly, won it- as long as, like the SCOTUS 5, you don't bother actually counting the votes.

[aquart]

60. Excuse me?

Gore won on the count, too. IF all the votes were counted.

[pope piel]

38. This isn't Florida.

This isn't Florida. Unfortunately it won't be close enough to contest. We have to face reality.

[Pez]

61. *sniff* i won't give up hope... check it: 1:26am

40% precincts reporting

Schwarzenegger 1,517,242
Bustamante 958,218
McClintock 398,342

Yes 55%
No 45%

cnn

[DoNotRefill]

17. Look at the California voter website...

4 minutes into the count, with a little over 1 percent of precincts reporting, Ahnold leads Bustamonte 90,000 to 36,000. It's not even close.

[Jack Rabbit]

6. Associated Press and NBC also project the same

This is a sad night.

[Unknown Known]

8. No surprise!

The fix was in from the beginning

[private_ryan]

25. polls indicated we'd lose

and we lost. Time to regroup and think of the next step.

[aquart]

12. Without a vote counted.

Who needs elections.

[FlashHarry]

13. MSNBC TV headline "Arnold Wins!"

D'you think they'd have added the exclamation point had the recall failed? Didn't think so. Well, the media got what it wanted. I hope the future plight of California is worth it.

By the way, what's their credit status going to be? Junk?

[Ediacara]

14. That's funny

CNN's website shows the recall LOSING 57-42...

[Zech Marquis]

20. how do you pass by losing 57 to 42 percents?!

Sounds like all the media whores are reading the same script

Well Arnuld, if you though things were bad before you "won", just wait muscle man...

[Ediacara]

28. well, they've "corrected" it

ugh

[lightbulb]

36. DAMN! I caught that too!

Why, why didn't I take a screenshot? Someone must have...

[Seanly]

15. uggh

Well, this is my first post. And unfortunately, it's just as CNN is getting down on all 4's to serve their Rethuglican overlords.

Funny how the networks bring back the exit polling when it works for the interests of the true media owners.

So what will Arnold do? Cut corporate taxes & raise regressive taxes? CA in '04 will be more of a mess.

Wolf Blitzer just said "Bustamante manages to hold onto his job!" WTF? He wasn't being recalled!

[Cooley Hurd]

23. That's the real tragedy of this evening...

The largest state in the US with a budget crisis proportionate to its size is now in real trouble. My condolences to our CA DUers...

And welcome to DU, Seanly.

[baby_bear]

He may be able to do very little

The legislature will probably just become much stronger in the state. I don't think Arnold will be very influential.

That WAS a weird statement by Wolf that you mentioned-- huh?

And, welcome to DU, Seanly! Keep up the posts!



s_m

[meisje]

16. dems went too negative at the end and it failed

Tomorrow is another day

[mac56]

70. Dems didn't fail. They did what was right.

They should only have done it sooner.

Not a failure for the Dems.

[fizzana]

18. I didn't post this earlier today but I gave up based on the fact

that I know at leat a half dozen Democrats who voted for Arnold. All these turncoats hate Bush as well.

Take heart. This was all about Davis and not the Democrats or Democrat ideals. Let Arnold try and solve California's problems. Give him six months and half the people who voted for him will regret it.

[aquart]

59. DEMOCRATS voted for Arnold?

Is something wrong with California water?

Is the smog affecting mental capacity?

What bloody pluperfect IDIOTS!

My San Diego sister is calming herself with fantasies of serving Daryl Issa a dish of his testicles, thinly sliced, sauteed in butter and California white wine. I think she should prepare the recipe for a crowd.

[alarimer]

72. what a pig

How can anyone vote for that disgusting human being? It makes me sick. Are the people in CA that ignorant or stupid that they would prefer a sexual predator/ criminal who should have sign on his lawn to someone who was just boring? I hate Arnold.

[oxycontinrush]

19. Fresno Co. went 71% for recall and Arnold

I know this sort of this is "expected," but I've never understood why we can't break through and make these people understand supporting neo-cons is completely against their best interests.

[bluestateguy]

21. I am not taking "projections" seriously

Real returns only.

[symbolman]

24. THEY HAVE NOT COUNTED THE VOTES

THEY HAVE NOT COUNTED THE VOTES..


I want to see a DEWEY WINS Scenario, and it could happen, no inauguration for 39 DAYS..

I know for a fact that MILLIONS have not been counted.. this is a fraud.

[belab13]

37. Yea,in most counties throughout the state, diebold & co. are counting.

I know this has been posted over and over again, but have the electorate completly lost their minds.

[goobergunch]

40. Sadly, I think they have. (n/t)

[paul7e]

26. Voter discontent? Ha!

"The race -- borne out of voter discontent..."

As if - the race was born out one thing and one thing only: Rep. Issa's 7-figure spending, and his desire to be Governor. Remember, this was NOT a popular movement, it was a PAID movement.

[Magleetis]

71. Exactly

more and more I am thinking that the rich are the enemy. The people with the big bucks have the ability to buy power. The Bush family has gotten very goog at it, ie. Florida in 2000. I really used to like America.

[Nottingham]

27. The Dems couldn't Produce Any better candidates than Davis &

Bustamonte..............they were terrible! Democrats if they don't wake up are going to be a lost party.. I'm dissapointed that all the democrats had was Bustamonte. We needed a better candidate than him!

Actually I understand why the californians did vote for Arnie but alas they don't realize that they just gave the election 2004 to Bush!

It is a sad day in America! :usa:

[oxycontinrush]

34. 2004 is not lost... if anything this assures we sweep CA

We should prepare to schedule a recall in NOV 2004 during the Presidential Campaign when we will get big turnout. Dubya, Arnold, and all those GOP neo-con reps can be swept out together since they will all be on the same ticket with Dubya at the top.

Agreed, Davis and Bustamonte were never really strong candidates. We'll get better for the re-recall

[PROGRESSIVE1]

29. If it is so then I give up.

A Sad day!

[Jen]

30. It won't be that bad!

We still have the legislature and the courts.

Ahnold will be just a fugurehead. Plus he is not the Fascist some people tseem to think he is. Some of the causes he has supported are quite liberal.

Take heart, we will survive.

[belab13]

39. he's a puppet Jen; he's got the bush cabal and pete wilson laying out the

agenda. Not good for the schools, libraries, social services, police and fire departments, and the environment. What else is there when you're a parent of 4 kids in this once great state.


I'm so sick over this I could puke...

[expatriot]

31. 4.1% in.... 51.7 yes 48.3 no closer than 'comfortable'

but of course without more data, we don't know what precincts have reported more of their votes than others.

But it looks like AHnold's star power is giving him Ventura and LA County so far.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

32. wait til they count the Bay Area votes

we don't have much use for Hollywood types up here.

[LastDemInIdaho]

41. What types do the Bay Area people have a "use" for?

And why is it necessary to use anyone?

[TheReligiousLeft]

42. Only 12percent is reported so far

Per CNN only 12 percent of the results are in so far, how can they be waiting for a concession speech?

[freeforall]

43. MSNBC headline reads "Schwarztenegger wins in California"

Now, as far as I understand your elections, they haven't counted all the votes yet, so this seems a little premature!

What can you expect though? The media got reamed out after the pResidential Selection 2000 for calling the election for Gore, and if you remember, there was much debate at the time about their predicting the outcome of elections.

Well - they didn't learn anything did they?

And, with apologies to all fellow DUers and decent Americans, what gives with electing idiots? The rest of us are wondering what happened to the dynamic nation we once knew as the USA!

[janx]

44. We are still here--a lot of us.

Give us until November 2004. We are currently being out shouted by a bunch of religious fanatics and control freaks. But we are still here.

[gigantor]

66. Electing idiots?

I suppose an argument might be made that the Americans have gotten tired of electing idiots and this is their answer to the idiots that had been elected.

I mean, come on. All this talk of a stolen election in Ca. Huge numbers of dems had to cross over party lines to enable Ahnolds 'victory'. We aren't talking Florida here, 2000, we're talking near Republican landslide in a hugely Democratic state.

Instead of whining about the election, Democrats need to figure out why their message is being so clearly rejected by the populace. If they don't, they are going to hand the country to the republicans on a silver platter and simply be pushed to the sidelines.

There's a lesson to be learned here and from the rants I read, it isn't being learned.

- Just some Dutch guy

[Dover]

45. If there is anything positive to make of this......it's that Arnold will

inherit a very angry population who's economy has been gutted. If Californians couldn't figure out that Enron/Bush, and not so much Davis, was responsible for much of their pain, then they are just as likely to apply blame on Arnold for the existing mess.

It's interesting that there is currently a big effort by the White House to survey and get new offshore drilling rights. This may be one of the main "jobs" that the GOP assigns to Arnold. Florida has already anticipated this and is kicking and screaming about it.

I really thought Californians were smarter than this, and will for now assume there was some voting fraud since this looked so much like the vote in Florida.

[emalejim]

46. There is a silver lining in this election

I believe the key indicator for the Dem party is to look at the results of Prop 54. This is going down in flames. The reality is that citizens were growing tired of Davis and that is why so many Dems jumped across party line. Do not believe the spin from the Repukes that so many Dems are now going to vote Repuke. The reality is the party core rallied to defeat prop 54 and this will continue as we approach the 04 presidential race.

[Dover]

48. But if that's is the case, why didn't they just vote for Bustamante?

..isn't he a better alternative to Davis than a yes vote on recalls and Arnold?

[kimchi]

49. Anyone know what is up with King's County?

They had a 42.4% turnout rate--way above the average, which I'm guessing is in the low 20s.

I also think it is a bit premature to declare a winner when only 14% of the precincts reporting and weeks before the MILLIONS of absentee ballots are counted. Shades of Florida...don't people see how they are being manipulated?

[bobthedrummer]

50. CBS reporting on apparent Arnold win

[LastDemInIdaho]

51. I guess the groping slight didn't work

Maybe a positive message next time would perform better than a trumped woman9zing charge. It didn't work agaainst Clinton so why was it tried agaainst Arnie?

[KAZ]

55. Because we had a 7 week election cycle and it was ...

investigated and reported on. WHAT part of that do you not understand?

[LastDemInIdaho]

56. The part where the LA Times focused only on Arnie

Seems there was quite a bit of groping and abuse to go around on all parties involved. Oh well...

[Zero Gravitas]

52. Good

Arnold is a sleazoid, and most of the problems that have people angry cannot be solved by the Governor of CA. Maybe by Nov. 2004 people will realize that the energy crisis was in large part due to the crooks at Enron, and that Enron & Ken Lay were the biggest campaign contributors to a certain George W. Bush, and that Enron got to pick the individulas who "regulated" their business.

Arnold will go down in flames and that can only hurt the Republic Party.

They are welcome to California, it will only hurt them.

[AndyTiedye]

53. No Silver Lining At All

We are doomed.

Republicans can steal elections in California now. The Democratic party is finished.

[Voltaire99]

62. That's the rub: California for Bush in 2004

Spankenegger can deliver CA to Bush in 2004.

The rules, the process, the technology - the tools of disenfranchisement are now within the enemies' hands.

[goforit]

54. But what about all those crooked computers?

Arnold will make sure they are forever rigged!!!

[gauguin57]

64. I've had it up to here.

As I said on a previous thread ... Now that the skanky Gropemeister has been elected, I don't ever want to hear one more word about Bill Clinton's penis. By placing a known skank on a pedestal, the GOP has forever forfeited the right to talk about Clinton's sexual exploits. And we, forever, have the right to call them on it before a comment escapes their lips.

Now I'm MAD. The repugs have gone too far. And I'm sure they're figuring Cali. electoral votes are a lock in '04. Well, it's time to pull out all the stops. No more Mister Nice Guy. We must take back the White House in 2004 BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY. BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY. Nothing's too low for the GOP in terms of campaign dirty tricks ... we must just be more clever in cutting them off at the knees.

I plan to start by reminding (via letter) all of the major news outlets about the PNAC cabal. Not enough people know that they're the reason we went to war and are now being asked to cough up $87B for Iraq. Voters must be reminded of PNAC, AWOL, 2000 Election Theft, Leakgate and all pertinent Bush Crime Family activities. The nightly news must be a parade of dead American soldiers, newly pissed-off terrorists, disgruntled military families, jobless Americans, and GOP ties to the military-industrial complex getting richer off this tragedy.

It's time to take back America, fellow Democrats. Get a good night's sleep, because we haven't a moment to waste during the next 13 months.

[enki23]

67. you (we) have to do better than letters

we really do. they didn't just use letters, and they've accomplished some pretty surprising wins in the last few years.

yes. they have. deal with it. it doesn't mean they're right, it means they've been successful with our system. you deal with it, like they did, or you don't. there's no real choice here. if the democratic party doesn't become effective enough, some party will. this is how it works, and the dems are (as always, and expected) the best placed to do this (oh my god, this sentence lost its target about a line and a half ago) then they damned well need to do it. fuck truth. truth is what we tell *each other.* useful lies are what we tell the world. think that's fucked up? look at the republicans. they've been doing it for decades. they know the score, and so do we.

we can win. rush limbaugh shows us we can win. these fucks can't stand light, any light at all. my cat eats roaches smarter than these fucks. they're only effective, let me repeat that: THEY ARE ONLY EFFECTIVE, when they're with the opposition. (WHEN THEY'RE WITH THE OPPOSITION.) they can't win on their own merit.


so fuck them. every bit of dirt, no matter how tawdry , should be used. never, ever, EVER, admit mistakes. or regret. every legal initiave. everything. everything, everything, everything should be used. i'll give all i have, though it's not measured in dollars, i swear i'll try. i fucking swear i'll try.

[Muddleoftheroad]

74. We tried every bit of dirt

I think it backfired.

[BenFranklinUSA]

75. We should be able to win "honestly" else we are not ready to win.

The idea that pulling out all the stops is the answer is the kind of thinking that got us down the slippery slope.

Not enough folks think our positions are correct, and if we don't correct that (i.e. education) we not got squat.

[enki23]

76. oh bullshit. arnies numbers fell after the groping charges came out

the biggest problem was that they came *too late*.

and the davis campaign had absolutely jack shit to do with them. they should have, however, and should have pushed it early. his ways with women have been well known for years, and it is a failing of the democrats' campaigns that they didn't do more with this, that they did nothing with this at all. using this fact, and using it well, isn't "dirty politics." it's telling the fucking truth.

[PretzelzRule]

65. This is bullshit

Not you, Goobergunch, this situation.

It's 11 pm, my local news indicated that only FORTY-FIVE PERCENT of the vote had been counted thus far, and they're already declaring victory????!?!?!?!!!!!????!!!?!?!?!!?

As a former Californian, I am ABSOLUTELY DISGUSTED. What a disgrace.


The people who voted in the Gropinator have just solidified Californians' reputation for being "fruits nuts and flakes" ( don't get on my case for saying that; I'm not only Californian by birth, I'm also gay, bipolar and have trouble making commitments )

[goobergunch]

69. Recall Vote Maps (PIC WARNING)

Schwartznegger won LA County?

[BenFranklinUSA]

73. Give or take a million votes...

http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/summary.html

How is it that +/- 1 million folks voted "NO" to recall, and then esentially voted "NO" to Bustamante?

California = PBC, Florida.