Russian Army Chief Arrives in China Ahead of Joint War Games

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/03/17/chinatrip.shtml

Russia’s army chief Yury Baluyevsky has arrived in China for a four-day visit, Chinese state media report, as plans are laid for the first joint military exercises between the two countries.

The chief of general staff was expected to hold talks with state and military leaders, including his counterpart Liang Guanglie, during his stay in Beijing, the Xinhua news agency said, citing Chinese Defence Ministry sources.

The visit, Baluyevsky’s first trip abroad since he took up the post last July, will also take him to Sanya, a seaside resort in southern Hainan province where China has a military base, AFX reported. snip

The exercises, which will be held on Chinese territory, will be large scale and include the army, navy, air force units and submarines.

more

[acmavm]

1. China and Russia in joint war games. This is a historical event, one I

surely thought would never take place.

[NNN0LHI]

2. Bush the uniter n/t

[Say_What]

16. A line has been drawn in the sand...

Bush and his neocon war criminals will be f*ck'd when the union between these two is complete. In addition to these two I believe there is a slew of countries that will be part of this--Venezuela, Cuba, India, to name a few.

World to Bush: F*ck off TortureBoy!

[leveymg]

3. We should thank Shrub for making the Russian and Chinese militaries feel

so good about themselves (and us) that they've decided to play together.

The * legacy. Spreading good-will and cooperation around the world.

:nuke:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. China has the endless infantry, while Russia has....

...the air and naval units.

Oh, yeah....Russia has the nuclear capability that will neutralize any NeoCon madman's attempt to launch a preemptive strike on China, or Russia, or both.

Thank you, Herr Busch, for your leadership and diplomatic skills.

[Zuni]

21. Bush may have royally screwed us

we could be in for a real fucking mess.

Only a few years ago, our relationships with China and Russia had never been better.
Thanks, George for not only pissing off Russia and China, but every single ally we had in Europe and Latin America.

[Moderator]

5. kick to combine

[Silverhair]

6. CHINA, RUSSIA TO 'REHEARSE INVASION OF TAIWAN'

OK, I know everybody here doesn't like Drudge, but that's where the story is. Even if it is Drudge, it is still worth talking about.

"MOSCOW, March 17. (RIA Novosti)-Yesterday, Chief of the Russian General Staff Yury Baluyevsky left for China to settle a scandal over the first Russian-Chinese military exercise, Commonwealth-2005, which is due to be held this fall off the Yellow Sea coast, writes Kommersant.

The initial plans were to practice operational teamwork in combating terrorism during the exercise. However, Beijing, skillfully changing the format of the exercise, has tried to re-orient the two countries' armies to practicing an invasion of Taiwan.

The choice of where the exercise will take place became a stumbling block. The Russian military selected the Xinjiang-Uigur autonomous region, basing their choice on the area's problematic nature due to Uigur separatists and its proximity to Central Asia, which has become an arena in the fight against international terrorism. However, Beijing flatly rejected the proposal. Instead, it suggested the Zhejiang province near Taiwan."
-----

If Russia decides to play in the game, then everything I have previously written goes in the trash can.

[jayfish]

7. Yup, It Sure Does...

I guess that heavy-lift problem that China has really won't prove to be much of a problem after all. BTW are you rooting for China/Russia or something? :bounce:

Jay

[Silverhair]

10. Just being a realist. NT

[jayfish]

12. Just A Little Ribbing For Ya. -NT-

Jay

[Zuni]

8. HOLY SHIT

This could be the worst crisis ever. I say we stop worrying about Iraq and look at this.

Perhaps China and possibly russia got us into Iraq so they could divert troops from this mission.
If they managed to convince the CIA that Iraq was a danger and then turned the tables on us, it is perhaps the biggest intel coup ever.
Iraq was in league with Russia for decades, even during the war we found all kinds of new Russian stuff. Almost all of their equitment and weapons were Soviet or Chinese made.
Perhaps Russia, China and Saddam were plotting together, and the other two sacrificed Saddam for their own ends?


This is massive.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Russia told us repeatedly to stay out of Iraq...did the NeoCons...........

....listen? They didn't listen to anybody, much less the millions of Americans opposed to the mission.

Russia also had a major deal with Iraq that was worth billions to them, and got zero after we invaded. That was like a slap in the face to the Russians, and they usually don't react well to stuff like that.

As to the Russians and Chinese working with Iraq and selling Iraq arms just prior to our invasion, I tend to discount by about 95% any reports about Iraq in the US media. Virtually everything reported by the US press turned out to be false, especially where the reports were about WMDs, and weapons of any other sort.

I will say that I bet there were a lot of countries hoping that Herr Busch and his war machine would get bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. They knew that would weaken us economically, and that's where the global war with the US is already being waged.

[Zuni]

20. Actually, there was warehouses full of Russian military equitment

new stuff too.
I knew people who had been in Iraq. They saw stockpiles of new russian stuff, rockets, missles, rifles etc.
Almost all of Iraq's arsenal was of Soviet or Chinese origin. The US media did not make that up.
Bush didn't want Russia to conflict, but it seems clear that there was a lot going on between Russia and Iraq before the war.
I do not think the media made that up, because the media had been trying to sell Putin to us as an ally.

[NNN0LHI]

18. Russia's former Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov went to Iraq twice...

...right before the US invaded. I don't think he made the trip to drink tea with Saddam? It was to tell the Iraqis how to turn Iraq into the morass it has become. A little gift for the US helping bin Laden and his friends drive the Soviets from Afghanistan. Paybacks are a bitch.

Don

[Zuni]

23. They had military advisors there too, I believe

who didn't leave until the war actually started. If I remember correctly, some of Russia's military advisors were killed in a US air strike when they were headed for Syria.

The USSR supplied most of Iraq's arsenal. Since then, while arms sales have slowed, the Russians continued to sell Saddam military equitment. A friend of mine who was in Iraq right after the main war said they had found warehouses full of new Russian equitment.

The Russians wanted us to bleed a little for screwing up their investments in Iraq.

[mattclearing]

9. What are we going to do about it?

Nothing.

[jayfish]

11. I'd Be Surprised...

if we didn't have a carrier group in the area to monitor the exercises. Other than that "nothing" is the correct answer.

Jay

[happyslug]

19. Yes and that may be the purpose of the Exercise

One less Carrier in the Persian Gulf to support an invasion of Iran. If the Russians commit enough naval and air forces, we may have to have more than one carrier in the Area.

Remember the report that Russia is backing Iran and Syria against any American invasion does not mean Russia will commit troops. In many cases committing troops is NOT the best way to help an Ally. For example in 1862 Russia sent its Fleet to America ports as a symbol of support for the Lincoln, it was a way to tell England and France that if they intervened in the American Civil War, Russia will Support Lincoln. Another example is in 1865 the US started to Mass troops along the Mexican Border just to tell Napoleon III that the US could intervene into Mexico unless he removed his French Troops. Napoleon III got the message and pulled his troops out (This was also the result of the US support for Juarez as the US turned over US Civil War Surplus to Juarez Army, like the US in 1865 shipping such supplies are another way Russian can support Syria and Iran against the US).

Thus Russia and China do not need to commit troops, all either needs to do is tie up US Troops. Russia can do this by mobilizing its troops near US bases (in Response the US will have to at least keep enough forces back to defend those bases). China and Russia could put into place near Taiwan enough military assets that the US would have to keep 2-3 carriers in the Pacific during any invasion of Syria or Iran. Another things the Russians could do is give Chavez those 100,000 AK he purchased and have Chavez turn them over to the Columbia Rebels forcing the US to Keep a Carrier or two off the Columbia coast as the Rebel start a new Offensive.

Russia and China may be up to all of the above (and I can NOT exclude Germany, France and Japan from this calculation). The real issue will it be enough to prevent Bush from Attacking Iran and Syria or will Russia and China actually have to commit troops? Committing Troops is a higher level of opposition than the above. Will France, Germany and Japan accept a Chinese/Russian Invasion of Taiwan? France, Germany and Japan may have to accept such an invasion just to force the US to response to the Invasion and thus denying US some of its forces for the Invasion of Iran and Syria. I do not see France, Germany or Japan committing Troops to defend Syria and/or Iran but will they support a Russian intervention?

Coalitions are hard to form and hard to keep together. I always remember the quote from a WWII French General after the 1940 Campaign "Now that I have worked in a Coalition, I have less respect for Napoleon" (Napoleon had fought defeated and was defeated by a series of Coalitions). Coalitions are hard to keep together for the members all have different Agendas (France and Germany's Agendas are close, but neither has the same agenda as Russia, China or Japan). The key to someone like Bush who is facing a coalition is to make sure those different agenda are more important then defeating Bush. An invasion of Iran means total US control over Middle East Oil, something China, Russia, Japan, Germany and France all will oppose. Thus I foresee a coming Anti-America Coalition of these five Nations the real key will be how the five nations will oppose the upcoming American Invasion. Tyeing up US forces by sending supplies to Columbian Rebels? Selling planes to Chavez? Shipping anti-aircraft, Anti-Tank and Anti-Ship weapons to Iran and Syria? Invading Taiwan (Russia and China only but with some sort of understanding with Germany, France and Japan) or direct intervention (Russia only but again with some sort of support from Germany, France, Japan and China)?

It may become very interesting very quickly.

[jayfish]

22. Very True.

Clinton sent two battle groups to the area in '96 as a show of force against similar exercises. I also don't see Russian troops involved in the ME or China but Russia can provide air and sea lift capability to get lots of boots, in the case of China, and gear on the ground. I also wouldn't be surprised if Russia provided some CAP assistance. That could really put a crimp in things. The rest of your speculation is just as delicious. I just hope we have a few people in government who have gamed the same scenarios and can see the pitfalls. My gut tells me we might not.

Jay

[zipplewrath]

14. Which foreshadows our position

We're perfectly willing to "defend" Taiwan in a diplomatic sense, but we won't actually attempt to oppose China in a military sense. And at this point we have more interests in China than Taiwan. Economically, we couldn't afford the "fight" with China.
I wouldn't worry too much though. I seriously doubt they have any real intent. It is more an exercise in intimidation for China and chest pounding for Russia.

[Chrisduhfur]

15. One thing to keep in mind though.

Could China afford to invade Taiwan? It wouldn't be exactly an easy task for them, as the US has learned in Iraq, occupying a foreigne nation isn't exactly simple. Not to mention the economic consequences they would face, not just from US but from probably much of the world. Would they gain more from taken Taiwan, or would they lose more?

I always said that China is going to strike out soon. They are growing more powerful all the time. They have a huge population, that population living standards will continue to rise. What will happen when most their populations wants SUVs and huge houses? Will they trying to take things militarily? What happens when they butt heads even more with the US and other major powers? **KAAA BOOOM** We're all gonna die. ;)

[zipplewrath]

26. China basically won't "invade"

For all the reasons you suggest, and more, they won't invade
Taiwan.  I suspect even if Taiwan acts to become more
"independent" that the most China might do is some
strong arm tactics like embargoes,
assassinations, etc.  I strongly believe that the People's
Party believes that if they become economically dominant
enough, that Taiwan will look for reconcilliation and
reunification along the lines of a Hong Kong.  Dunno if they
are right, but I suspec that is their plan.

[Say_What]

17. No way. Saving their energy for wannabe King of the Planet, TortureBoy

[bullimiami]

24. Stupidity + Arrogance meet the Law of Unintended Consequences

[barbaraann]

25. I wish I could have seen Bush's face when he heard this.

I'll bet he didn't smirk.