in the media, I've followed up by sending this email.
I was wondering if anyone at (insert name of media here) knew about the theory of Peak Oil. According to the Peak Oil theorists world oil production is shortly about to peak (i.e. estimates range from peak occurring right now to within the next 10 to 20 years). The implications are that peak production can only last a few years and once passed all the easily accessible oil will have been used up, and it will take increasing effort, money and energy inputs to recover less and less oil. Natural gas is also considered to be pretty close to peak now as well.
The geologists, energy consultants etc. who are concerned about Peak Oil and the consequences of our lack of planning for such an occurrence are convinced that non-conventional oil and gas recovery or alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, bio-mass, hydrogen etc. will not even come even close to providing our heavily industrialised and oil dependent developed western economies a replacement for the concentrated and relatively cheap source of energy found in conventional oil and natural gas.
The economic consequences to the industrialised world are likely to be staggering to say the least. One of the most prominent promoters of the Peak Oil theory is. Colin Campbell PhD a retired geologist and oil industry executive and energy consultant. Another prominent individual who has expressed his concerns that Peak Oil will be upon us shortly and we will be totally unprepared to face the consequences is Mathew Simmons, an energy related investment banker (his firm controls 56 billion in assets) and a member of Cheney's 2001 energy task force.
On May 27 2003, Simmons addressed a conference (see link below) at the French Petroleum Institute convened by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) In his address he stated:
>>.....Most serious scientists worry that the world will peak in oil supply. But most assume that this day of reckoning is still years away. Many also assume that non-conventional oil will carry us through several additional decades. They were right to ring the alarm bell. But they too might also be too optimistic. Non-conventional oil unfortunately is too non-conventional. Light oil is easy to produce and convert into usable energy. Heavy oil is hard to produce and extremely energy intensive and very hard to grow rapidly. It turns out the United States of America has nine fields left that still produce over 100,000 barrels a day. And three of the nine have turned out to be located in California and on average are 103 years old. The reason these fields are still there is that they're very heavy oil. And heavy oil can last forever but it's very hard to get out of the ground. And it takes a remarkable amount of energy to convert heavy oil into usable energy.
Five years ago I barely had thought about the question of, "What does peaking mean and when might it occur?" I was intending at the time though to study the concept of depletion and the phenomenon that field after field was tending to peak fast and decline at rates that were unheard of before. The uh, uh, I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating<<
In an Oct 23 , 2002 interview (see link below) Dr. Colin Campbell responded to a question on whether alternative energy sources such as Tar Sands etc. would provide a solution. This was Dr. Campbell's response.
>>Campbell: Of course there is a range of alternatives from wind, sun, tide, nuclear, etc. but today they contribute only a very small percentage, and do not come close to matching the oil of the past in terms of cost or convenience. No doubt production from tar sands and heavy oils can be stepped up in the future but it is painfully slow and expensive, carrying also environmental costs. It will help ameliorate the decline but has minimal impact on peak. The simple solution is to use less. We are extremely wasteful energy users. But
it involves a fundamental change of attitude and the rejection of classical economic principles, which were built on endless growth in a world of limitless resources. Those days are over, exacerbated by the soaring population, itself now set to decline partly from energy shortage.<<
If you are not yet familiar with this topic, I sincerely hope that you will at least review the evidence presented at the various links I have listed below. If the Peak Oil theory is valid, humanity is going to be faced with some critical choices in the not too distant future . It's important that the public be made aware of just how critically dependent on oil and natural gas we are and what the penalties for us as a society are likely to be if we refuse to face the probability that the age of cheap energy will shortly be over.
Here's a list of links to various speeches, articles and interview discussing Peak Oil/Gas.
For a quick summary of Peak Oil and it's implications see this transcript of an Oct 23, 2002 interview with geologist and retired oil industry consultant and executive Colin Campbell PhD.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html Lecture by Dr. Colin Campbell at University of Clausthal (Real Player video)
http://www.rz.tu-clausthal.de/realvideo/event/peak-oil.ram Lecture notes for above Campbell presentation:
http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.html Transcript of address by investment banker Mathew Simmons presented to the ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) meeting at the French Petroleum Institute. May 27, 2003
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/061203_simmons.html Lecture by Julian Darley "US Natural Gas: When Crunch Becomes Crisis" presented June 17, 2003 to the enter for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC (Requires Real Player)
http://ram.postcarbon.org/RAM/2003/06/JulianDarley.DC-CSIS.NatGasCrisis.2003-06-17.P1.ram Discussing oil depletion, natural gas, gov't reaction and ramifications an interview with Dr, Colin Campbell
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/COLIN.CAMPBELL/ www.postcarbon.org
www.hubbertpeak.com
Regards and best wishes