Analysis: Iraqi insurgency growing larger,more effective

[cal04]

Analysis: Iraqi insurgency growing larger, more effective

The United States is steadily losing ground to the Iraqi insurgency, according to every key military yardstick. A Knight Ridder analysis of U.S. government statistics shows that through all the major turning points that raised hopes of peace in Iraq, including the arrest of Saddam Hussein and the handover of sovereignty at the end of June, the insurgency, led mainly by Sunni Muslims, has become deadlier and more effective.

The analysis suggests that unless something dramatic changes - such as a newfound will by Iraqis to reject the insurgency or a large escalation of U.S. troop strength - the United States won't win the war. It's axiomatic among military thinkers that insurgencies are especially hard to defeat because the insurgents' goal isn't to win in a conventional sense but merely to survive until the will of the occupying power is sapped. Recent polls already suggest an erosion of support among Americans for the war.

more
The unfavorable trends of the war are clear:
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/10703534.htm

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. If the US pulls out, the insurgents take over completely

And a bad ass emerges to run the place. And at what cost did we have to learn this lesson?

[babylonsister]

2. Agreed. Does the US go or stay, and what are the

ramifications of either act? Bush sucks for this because he created the problem.

[driver8]

5. The sad thing is, Bush doesn't think it's a problem...

He thinks he is doing the right thing. We all know what happens when Bush gets an idea -- he makes his decision and sticks with it...no matter how fucked up it is.

[wildwww2]

9. I`ll betcha Bu$h just thinks about his next snort of cocaine and shot

of booze. And besides that. Well lying his ass off comes naturally. Anyone with one functioning brain cell can tell that. He sure doesn`t need money in his pocket like the rest of us. He couldn`t even put a penny in the offering tray at church for Christ`s sake.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[Jawja]

22. and no matter

what kind of advice he gets from experts/military planners he should listen to. Tell him something that contradicts his reality? Retire or get smeared through the machinary of Big Media.

[LynnTheDem]

12. 1. We are the PROBLEM; we will NEVER be the solution. 2. The MAJORITY

as in VAST OVERWHELMING majority of Iraqis want us OUT of their country RIGHT F*CKING NOW.

3. The Iraqis can't "expell" the "insurgents" because the Iraqis ARE THE "INSURGENTS".

4. This is EXACTLY what Iraq did to the Brits when the UK tried their first occupation of Iraq.

5. "Bad Ass"??? WTF do you think CIA-paid TERRORIST CAR-BOMBER ALLAWI is???

6. We pull out now...or we pull out later. The ONLY DIFFERENCE whatsoever will be the number of deaths inbetween.

[ckramer]

16. But If the US doesn't pull out, you get two soldiers death per day

It's called between a rock and a really hard place

[Monkie]

19. it is THEIR country,nothing to take over just to reclaim

and if a badass emerges aslong as he doesnt wage illegal pre-emptive wars (hint hint) its not our problem.
the only badasses there at the moment are the amerikan invaders, the puppets installed by the USA,and various mercenaries/collaborators.
oh and not to forget all the ex-baath party badasses reinstated by the usa

[leesa]

25. The "insurgents" are the Iraqi people, of course they take over.

Why are you perpetuating the myth that these are anti-Iraqi forces?? These are Iraqis fighting the US invaders.

[The_Casual_Observer]

29. It isn't that simple. Whoever they are, they are killing Iraqis

in numbers also. Granted, those murdered Iraqis are seen as working for the occupation, but never the less, it is a ghastly preview of what kind of tactics can be expected after we depart and a struggle for power commences. Iraq is/was a world class can of worms that required the stupidity and arrogance of bush/pnac to open. Clearly, the actual consequences of the sudden and violent ouster of Saddam were not considered by wise people before engaging in this adventure.

[civil discourse]

48. We all know we shouldn't have gone in.

But now we have to leave Iraq a better place than we found it. To cut and run before there is some kind of stable government (even if the country as a whole never becomes stable) would be even more irresponsible.

A majority of the military is reported to favor Bush, so I'm less worried about our casualties than I might otherwise be.

[Eloriel]

49. Leave it BETTER than we found it?

Not possible. Literally not possible. We've bombed whole cities to rubble (cf. Fallujah, for one), destroyed key infrastructure, raped and pillaged and bombed priceless artifacts of civilization itself, killed thousands if not hundreds of thousands, privatized their whole economy (or would have were it worth anything) and stolen their oil.

You want us to make it BETTER than we found it? There aren't enough eternities available to do that.

[0007]

46. Couldn't be any worse than the U.S. running Iraq! Who placed

Saddam Hussein in power?

[buddysmellgood]

3. Gosh. Do you think it could be someone worse than Saddam?

Women in Iraq are screwed. They will suffer the most. What we will get now is Saddam with religion.

[Newsjock]

4. It's rather shocking

... for such an analysis to appear in the mainstream media. It will be interesting to see how many newspapers actually have the intestinal fortitude to run this analysis tomorrow, and how they present it.

[Zhade]

6. Gettin' drafty in here.

NT!

[Rose Siding]

31. It's everywhere

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d&q=Iraqi+insurgency+growing+larger%2Cmore+effective&btnG=Search+News

[Texifornia]

7. At this point, the only possible

Iraqi leader that will have any credibility with the Iraqi people is one that is seen to have ejected the Americans....and even that is doubtful.

Most likely outcome is a bloody civil war concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and Sumarra with terror attacks throughout. Biggest fight will probably be between the Kurds and the Sunni for control of the northern oil fields. Whoever wins that one will have to fight or bargain with the Shia regime in the south to get that oil to market.

The bloodshed can't stop until the U.S. leaves, but it will be far from over once it does.

[babylonsister]

8. Good evening, and all I can say is

you can spell! and welcome to DU!
I have no idea what will happen on Jan. 30 and after, how our lovely country will be perceived, but I am fearful for our loved ones in Iraq and at home. I'm also pretty awfully afraid of what our current 'leader' might have up his sleeve. I think he is evil.

[wildwww2]

10. The civil war has already started. And our troops are in the middle of it.

I hope nobody thinks that our 150,000 troops are stopping 20 plus million Iraqi`s from killing each other already. (Thats what civil war is). Because they are not. Our troops are just cannon fodder for what profit the U.S. military industrial complex makes. If they are slowing down this civil war crime. It is only slightly.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[UL_Approved]

14. You know, that point has never been raised

Is there any other logical explanation why Iraqi police are the major targets of violence? Does any other item explain why this fighting is not all concentrating on the U.S. forces, and why destruction of infrastructure is taking place?

This is a point that should be raised, and it needs to get taken to media services. This is too important to miss.

[teryang]

24. A resistance movement is the government in the making

The sanction of force is a state monopoly. There cannot be "two governments." The resistance is the government of Iraq. We just don't recognize it yet. As that government, it will not tolerate the police power of a state imposed by a foreign invader. It claims the monopoly of force and does not recognize competitors but rather seeks to destroy them.

If the overt occupation "state" cannot provide law and order which is the life blood of commerce and civil life, it will perish. This has always been the key to securing control of the area. The rampant corruption in the current transitional government suggests that it is much more terminal than transitional as personal enrichment and graft supersede patriotism and commitment to a cause. Those unfortunate peoples of nobler or simpler ways of living eventually long more for order so that they may conduct the daily activities of living in peace, work and raise their families, rather than worrying about bombs, bullets, clean water, their next meal, and survival on a daily basis.

The organization which is the more effective in dispatching rivals by methods of force and perserverance will become the ruler of the country.

[Igel]

35. I can't believe it can have the status of "government".

That presupposes a wider unity of purpose than they have.

It's easy to unite to kick out an invader. But you get a lot of folks with different agendas united behind that one purpose, give them guns, and then dispose of that purpose ... I'm far from convinced that "peace" is the appropriate way to describe the outcome.

So th what color's the sky in your world? It's blue in mine.

[teryang]

36. Historically, the Sunni's have prevailed

..in this role because they are the most effective at it. The other groups participating which fail to yield will ultimately submit or be destroyed.

American visions of Iraq's future are a fantasy merely meant to cover our occupation and dominance of the region economically and militarily. Even many conservatives admit this, rationalizing that we have to do it or we will decline in the world pecking order.

Inasmuch as American presence cannot be sustained permanently based upon economic, demographic and logistical realities, sooner or later the Sunni resistance will be the overt government of Iraq. Of course the destruction wreaked may leave them as an insignificant power for a generation or more. In the past this has been a satisfactory fall back position for military stalemates or nominal failures. Cutting Iraq down at the knees was always job one anyway.

He who wields the monopoly of force, sets the rules. He who sets the rules governs. The killing and violence can't begin to resolve until we leave.

The sky is black where I am, the sun is down and the sky is overcast.

[Igel]

41. I'd be surprised if a few folks from 20% of the country were

again allowed to dominate the other 80%.

And I'm surprised that people would even allow themselves to appear to like the idea of having 20% lord it over the other 80%. If by "most effective at it" you mean oppression, killing, and subjugation ... sorry, I'm not rooting for your team.

Remember, the Kurds are Sunnis, even if the MSM can't keep that bit of trivia straight ... and look where their "Sunni-hood" got them.

And, given the sea of guns and other weapons ... nobody's gonna hold a monopoly of force in Iraq for a while. So, I guess that means no rules.

Sounds like the sun's been down where you are for quite a while.

[teryang]

43. Historically, you are simply wrong

...and I don't have time to educate you. You sound like an intelligence officer I used to know, you use virtually the exact same lexicon. Do you have a degree in communications?

It's sunny and radioactive in Iraq, and there is no water to drink. Sound optimistic enough for you? Have some chicken soup.

Why don't you go over there, (again?) and carry on the cause. The home front will be fine without you.

[Igel]

52. Sorry, not intelligence officer, and no degree in

communications. Slavic. Which is to say, non-communication (given the job prospects in the field).

Somehow I just don't remember reading about a large Shi'a or Kurdish contingent at the tops ranks of either the Baathist regime, or in the Ottoman empire when it held sway between the two rivers and adjacent terrain.

Granted, there were times when Sunnis didn't rule in Iraq. But apart from the Arabized Kurd of note (people know he's a great anti-Crusader, but his Kurdishness is a bit murky), Kurds didn't much rule.

[Ms_Mary]

45. Well, my friend, look at America and who is running the show. Suprised?

[Igel]

53. Not surprised.

But not arguing or even allowing the inference that I agree with it.

Power, unfortunately, does come out of the barrel of a gun.

Eventually, I hope, we'll be civilized. At which point we'll stop implying that "what is, is right".

[NickB79]

28. Many of the Iraqi police force is composed of Kurds

Making them prime targets for assassinations and car bombings. Kurds are one of the few groups in Iraq willing to fight alongside the American forces, and are heavily recruited and driven south for fighting in Mosul and Baghdad.

[ckramer]

20. agree

What Bush didn't realize is - insurgents are also Iraqis. Unless you throw a nuke glassing the whole country, you will never ever defeat insurgents.

It's a FUBI

[Emillereid]

11. We've definitely made a mess -- but one only the Iraqi people

can clean up. It's their country and their history to make. We are the problem -- I imagine that when we leave, if we haven't succeeded in starting a civil war (there has never been a civil war in Iraq before), the Iraqi people will figure something out. They'll bury their dead, hail their heros and hopefully be allowed to write their own history of how their brave compatriots pushed out the mighty American invaders just like their grandfathers pushed out the greedy British. Whether it will take some kind of strong man rule is yet to be seen. It's not our business though, but we should pay big time reparations on our way out.

[LynnTheDem]

13. Absolutely

agree with every single statement of your post, WELL SAID!

[ckramer]

17. Maybe only Suuni can clean things up...It was a Sunni country before

It's gonna be bloody civil war again for sure once US left.

Long live King Bush!

[Emillereid]

38. We are certainly doing our best to provoke a civil war -- so say many of

the reports on the ground, but in all my reading of Iraqi history there has never been a civil war before. I hope they can keep their solidarity in tact and focus on their real enemy -- US.

[Rose Siding]

33. "when we leave..."

The real fighting will begin when they find out we aren't leaving- not entirely. There are all those permanent bases.

Might not seem like much but leaving one permanent base in SA didn't work out too well for us.

[Emillereid]

39. I know all about the 14 permanent bases -- but I'm taking the

real long view here. We will eventually be pushed out -- it's just a matter of time like Robert Fisk says. Unfortunately many, too many, Iraqis will have to die to make it so -- just like in Vietnam. It is so sad that these innocent people have to form the front line against the empire.

[Bozita]

15. U.S. in danger of losing the war (DFP headline, frontpage)

http://www.freep.com/news/nw/iraq22e_20050122.htm

U.S. in danger of losing the war

Analysis finds troubling trends in Iraq: Rising fatalities, attacks

January 22, 2005
BY TOM LASSETER and JONATHAN S. LANDAY
FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Unless something dramatic changes, the United States is heading toward losing the war in Iraq.

A Knight Ridder Newspapers analysis of U.S. government statistics shows the U.S. military steadily losing ground to the predominately Sunni Muslim insurgency in Iraq.

The analysis suggests that, short of a newfound will by Iraqis to reject the insurgency or a large escalation of U.S. troop strength, the United States won't win the war.

Military thinkers say insurgencies are especially hard to defeat because the insurgents' goal isn't to win in a conventional sense but to survive until the will of the occupying power is sapped. Recent polls suggest an erosion of support among Americans for the war.

more...

[llmart]

30. Good for the Detroit Free Press......

for running this. This is what we need - some mainstream media to plaster this all over the place every day. We have already lost this war, and we need to say that over and over again. That is the only way the sheeple will wake up and see what an evil administration this is. Then maybe the Dems in Congress will grow some backbones and stand up to this monster in the WH once and for all and make him a lame duck for 4 years.

[Bozita]

34. The Freep operates on weekends under a JOA with the Detroit News

DN subscribers received this edition too.

[llmart]

37. I know......

I live in the northern suburbs of Detroit. And the rightwingers love the Detroit News. I remember that the News didn't have the balls to endorse anyone for President because they knew what a lousy job Bush had done but couldn't bring themselves to tick off their readership.

[ckramer]

18. One of the quick solutions is let Saddam out

Let him do the killing.

[Ilsa]

21. Too many are not opposing violence...

"Other indications that "things are turning around" include surveys that show 80 percent of Iraqis wanting to vote in the Jan. 30 elections and more than 90 percent opposing violence as a solution to the crisis. In addition, the recruitment and training of Iraqi security forces are being stepped up, Lessel said."


Isn't that going to be over a million Iraqis who do not oppose violence?

I wish we would "lose" and get the hell out, versus stay and spend every last dime we have for out retirement, help for the poor and sick, etc.

[fedsron2us]

23. The PNAC project for Iraq is following the classic path

that so many who have worked on similar grandiose adventures in industry will recognise. The steps are

1) Enthusiasm
2) Disillusion
3) Panic
4) Blame for the innocent
5) Praise, honor and rewards for the non participants.

We are at the stage 3 at the moment. Look out for steps 4-5 over the next twelve months. Sadly, this exercise in delusion has cost many, many lives.

[Ilsa]

26. Good and reasonable assessment.

I'm waiting for anti-war people to be blamed outright for losing the war because we didn't "Support the troops".

[Rose Siding]

27. They site Najaf and Sadr City as "bright spots"?

NAJAF, Iraq — As the usually joyful Eid al-Adha holiday began in the Shiite Muslim heartland of Iraq, relentless violence and disappointment trumped centuries of tradition. This holy city's renowned cemetery lacked the multitudes who have made their way here for generations. Relatively few visitors appeared Friday along the forlorn pathways that slice through endless acres of headstones.

"It's half-empty," lamented Naja Hussein, who ventured here for the annual three-day Muslim Feast of the Sacrifice, which marks Abraham's willingness to offer his son at God's request. "With all the car bombs and violence, no one will drive."
...
In Najaf, the threat of ambushes, kidnappings and killings — particularly on the perilous road from Baghdad — kept many Shiites from embarking on the annual journey of remembrance.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-eid22jan22,1,2993075.story?coll=la-headlines-world

8 Chinese were kidnapped last week and one day last month, Najaf and Karbala suffered 60 deaths from car bombs.

The most recent beheadings were of Sadr City residents.

Maybe. If one were *really* desperate for bright spots...

[reprobate]

32. There is one thing that will spell doom to US plans in Iraq.

IIRC, almost every insurgent movement was followed and then led by a political movement that came from within it.

If and when this happens in iraq it's all over for the PNAC plans for the middle east. Iraqi nationalism will emerge and that's all she wrote. IF it happens there will no longer be a sunni vs. shia argument. It will be a "let's get rid of the American invaders and then we can form a legitimate govt". That will unite Iraqis and there's no way from then on that Lil Boots can win in the middle east. That kind of nationalism can spread throughout the region and lead to the entire area turning against us.

Thanks George.

God Save America

[SpinalTap]

40. Its time to admit the truth...

Its time to admit that arabs are either unwilling to create or perhaps incapable of creating democracy in the middle east. They just don't want it.

Time to pull our troops out NOW and let the insurgents take over. I have no doubt that al-Zarqawi will be in charge of Iraq. If they want oppressive dictatorships let them have them.

[Fovea]

42. I see it differently, and less optimistically

The problem is that many *do* want
democracy, but many, perhaps a greater number do not.

It is the same here, but we are in denial. Dubya, declaring
a max 2% victory as a 'mandate' shows how instable America itself is.
I predict what PNAC will go whole hog this year, that
the war will have a significant 5th column problem, that we will be economically embargoed by the EU, Russia, and China, and that we
will leave the war in exactly the same way Russia left WW1.

PS: When spell checking, the app threw a dialog for Dubya
that said <Ignore Replace> and I thought 'we should be so lucky'...

[Ms_Mary]

44. Solution: invade Iran. I'm still reeling over that. It's very scary.

It's like I told my mother in an accidental diatribe yesterday, if you aren't scared, then you don't have any idea what's going on.

[ausiedownunderground]

47. If Sistani doesn't win this supposed election- Vietnam cometh!

If "The Bush Gang" allows Sistani to win this election next week then many US and British and OZ lives will be saved! If they do not then America will probably face Vietnam in the Desert. If the Sunni's can inflict so much damage then imagine if Sistani unleashes his Badr Brigades in co-ordination with the Sunni Guerrillas. US,British and any remaining members of the "Coalition of the willing" will be easily defeated in a "Bloody mess". Helo's over the "Green Zone" will make really great TV. Will "The Bush Gang" really care?

[jmcgowanjm]

50. SCIRI controls BadrBrigade/Resistance targets BadrBrigade

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1171195&mesg_id=1175791

It is clear for everyone that it is the resistance who is on
the offensive in Iraq. The intelligence chief of the Allawi
puppet regime, Mohamed Abdullah Shahwani, recently
stated that the resistance counts more than 200,000
active fighters and sympathisers, a figure, which
for propagandist reasons is surely lower than in reality, but it
is still higher than the number of occupation forces and
the “Iraqi” army altogether. This shows that no one, if he or
she wants to be taken seriously, can hide the fact that
the resistance is growing and succeeding in
Iraq.
Therefore, and especially at this moment, one should be
very much aware of all kinds of illusions about the
occupation, about spectacular ways to magically end it
without continuing on the successful road of armed
resistance. All these proposals involving the so-
called international community, which was just watching as
the Iraqis were suffering and being killed for 13 years under
the genocidal UN sanctions, or this or that institution, only
serve one single purpose: to save the US-led occupation of
Iraq from defeat, to hinder the Iraqi people from getting
their great victory: the liberation of
Iraq.

http://www.fritirak.dk/artikler/english/articles/2005/0122-ck.htm

[rodeodance]

51. what a tragic mess-and the WH lives in "freedom' land!!