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U.S. Jobless Claims Grow, "True" Unemployment Rate 9.1 Percent

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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 06:59 AM
Original message
U.S. Jobless Claims Grow, "True" Unemployment Rate 9.1 Percent
U.S. Jobless Claims Grow, "True" Unemployment Rate 9.1 Percent
September 11, 2003
David Williams

WASHINGTON - Unemployment queues lengthened to a two-month record last week, data showed Thursday, and a new analysis suggested the "true" U.S. unemployment rate was now 9.1 percent.

The number of first-time jobless benefit claimants in the week ended September 6 rose 3,000 to a two-month record 422,000, following a 22,000-strong leap the previous week, seasonally adjusted Labor Department data showed.

Analysts, who generally consider the jobs market is deteriorating if new claims exceed 400,000 a week, had been hoping for a decline, said BMO Financial Group analyst Paul Ferley.

"But the level of claims has moved even further above 400,000, pointing to another decline in payroll employment for September," he said.

Last week, the government said U.S. employers had unexpectedly slashed 93,000 jobs in August, demolishing hopes of a revival in the crippled jobs market despite signs that an economic recovery is gathering pace.

The unemployment rate was 6.1 percent in August, it said.

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LosinIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
1. I was unemployed from November until July
Trying to find a job is soooo hard. I finally scored because a friend gave a friend my resume and it finally clicked. I had one week of unemployment left when I got the job. I don't know what we would have done if I hadn't gotten the job. Flippin burgers just would not cover our bills. Not the unemployment did, but we got a settlement from a car accident that we lived off of for the year.

I feel so bad for those still looking. It sucks bigtime.
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Mountainman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I am one of the people who filed for unemployment last week
I thought I would be OK but my job was moved to the East Coast.
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
3. The worst is yet to come...........
business historically cuts more jobs in the fall than at any other time, not wanting to carry over employees into the next year. I was an employee of Eastman Kodak for 29 years, and they always did their dirty work around the holiday season. Holiday greetings; here's your pinkslip. Demons.
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BlueJazz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Yep... I was recently laid off from Kodak.
I had only worked there for 3 years but it still came as a mild shock to me.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Fors Motor Company always did the same thing
I suspect it has to do with saving money on holiday pay and trying to balance the books to look as good as possible for end of the year balance sheet. The bean counters rule.

Don

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jus_the_facts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
6. KICK
:kick:
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sham Donating Member (377 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
7. Just graduated from college in May
I have been looking for a job since last October. Nothing. Companies are filling their entry-level positions with interns, who work for free. I have all but given up looking in my field and have been trying to get a retail job, just to help me get by. I have several years of retail experience and great references. And I can't even find anything in that sector.

I knew the unemployment figures were much higher than we had been told. I don't get unemployment, so I don't get counted. And there are many others like me.
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. In the same boat as you, Sham
Also graduated this past May, and I'm back working at the sub shop I worked the past two years. Granted, the pay is survivable after being there for so long, but still, I didn't go to college for a degree in sub shop management. Could be worse; a lot of my friends have had to move back in with their parents to get by, which thankfully I have not had to do.
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
8. Missed the bullet last week
Where I work (a major electronics company based in the Chicago suburbs) we laid off about 5% last week.

That's in addition to 35% in the last 4 years - mostly in the last two.

Supposedly, there will be no more this year - but I wouldn't bet on that. :scared:

And one of the people laid off was just 5 months out of college on her first job. I felt very badly for her, and her enthusiasm will be missed.
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Nottingham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
9. I think this article is dead on Unemployment is much bigger than 6.1
more like 10 % and thats not taking into account all the people who took major salary cuts

I don't know how long the consumer can drive this economy

:bounce:
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FubarFly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
10. I'll be laid off at the end of December
Just in time for the New Year.

Bastards.
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Robin Hood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
11. That's a little more honest.
But I'm sure that's it's much higher than even that. I'm unemployed and am not counted on the uneployed numbers.
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The_Casual_Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
12. On Friday some jerk analyst on teevee with Lou Dobbs
kept saying the economy was "bipping along". The Republican stand on this and Iraq is that all is really going well, it's just that the press and the Democrats want you to think that it's not.

What else can they do at this point?

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Whoa_Nelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
13. IIRC
Either at the end of August or beginning of September, it was reported that the unemployment rate was at an all-time record high of 11%.
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UnapologeticLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 05:02 PM
Response to Original message
14. What makes this the "true" rate?
What does it include that the regular rate doesn't? Discouraged workers?
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Aries Donating Member (544 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. You have to be looking for work to be counted as "unemployed"
as stated in the article:

"Because they did not actively seek employment during the last month, they were not counted by the government as part of the unemployed labor force," it added.

and as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the source of the data) says:

Who is counted as unemployed?
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.


So "discouraged workers" who didn't look for work make up much of the difference. What constitutes the "real" unemployment number is a matter for debate.

Note that collecting unemployment benefits has NOTHING to do with unemployment status; the data is collected by a monthly household survey conducted by the Census Bureau.

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monobrau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. I'm off the radar
I get enough contract work to get by, but that is not "employment" to me. I know plenty of people in the same position.
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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 05:16 PM
Response to Original message
15. Wow, I knew
the "official" figure was way too low. 3 million jobs lost since 2001, now thats quite an achievement.
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Nottingham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
19. Its because when you hear Unemployment at 10 % that signals
a Depression! :bounce:
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alcuno Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
20. How many people is 9.1%?
Obviously it's more than 3 million.
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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. 9.1% is approx. 14 million people......nt
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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
21. 11% is actually closer to the "true unemployment" figure
About a month ago I read a government website that showed the "unemployed", those not looking and the underemployed...ie, an engineer who lost his/her job and is now working at Home Depot, Wal-Mart, etc. The percent for all of these type people was 10.9%....which translates to approx. 17-18 million people. That is a huge number of people that have been affected by this recession/depression.

I personally know people that were engineers that now do contract work, paint houses, are checkers at grocery stores and these people are NOT counted in the 6.1% unemployed. Right now our economy is walking a tightrope and we can only hope that it gets better soon. If it doesn't, I'm not sure how much longer consumers can keep the economy afloat.
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alcuno Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Thanks. The Kramer guy from Kudlow and Kramer was
extolling the virtues of being a WALMART worker last week because they have benefits. Whoopee! He said they would probably be the only one hiring in the next 6 months. America, a nation of WALMART employees. Thanks, George.
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Clyde39 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Let's hope the Heartland wakes up!
Surely the people who vote Republican in those red states are not happy about losing jobs. Every city in America is having problems, not just those in the blue states.
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snippy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:27 PM
Response to Original message
25. The most informative government statistic "labor underutilization" is 10%
This is the "total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percentage of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers."
Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
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scarface2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-03 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
26. i saw analysis that says 'real' rate is over 15%!!!
and may hit 30 when the tax cuts are made permanent!!
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