Gotcha! Gallup Commits "Polling Malpractice" Startling New Info/Controversy on Poll

[kpete]

In describing the poll's usefulness on MSNBC Tuesday morning, Gallup chief Frank Newport said
"it's important to look at likely voters ... just to see under a scenario where McCain supporters are energized."

"Just to see a scenario where McCain supporters are energized";
so now Gallup is passing off speculation and hypothesis as accurate polling?


..................

Gotcha! Gallup Commits "Polling Malpractice" Startling New Info/Controversy on Poll
by Excelscior1
Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:08:49 AM PDT

There were many problems with the latest Gallup Poll, which has McCain up +4 vs Obama. But now with more information (buried deep into the 9th paragraph of USA Today's own write up), it only gets worse. It's potentially "startlingly" worse

It seems that Gallup according to writer Seth Colter Walls, "committed polling malpractice", when describing polling expert, Prof. Adam Abramowitz analysis, of Gallup/USA today's latest halting revelation.

Gallup fudged the numbers in more ways than we ever thought!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com /...
As for how "likely voters" were identified, USA Today reports that respondents were asked "how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall." Fair enough. But the very next sentence raises even more questions about whether USA Today's effort is actually a snapshot of the electorate, as its website claims, or enters the realm of forward-looking hypothesizing. Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today's own write-up, they reveal that "McCain's gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge."

Abramowitz says this contradiction is the equivalent of polling malpractice. "It is simply not plausible that there would be an 11-point swing in party ID among likely voters or that there is now an even split in the likely electorate between Republicans and Democrats," he wrote in an email to the Huffington Post.

.................

So sure, "under a scenario" where McCain's voters are energized at a level equal to Obama's and the national distribution of party ID is equal between Democrats and Republicans, perhaps it would make sense to see McCain with a four-point lead in a poll with a plus/minus 4 percent margin of error. But engineering coverage of a poll with metrics contrived to show results under a certain "scenario" sounds more prospective and hypothetical than the paper's stated mission of covering polls as momentary snapshots and "not forecasts of far-off election days."

As Newport said on MSNBC this morning: "The likely voters simply tell us that turnout could make a difference."


much more plus links at:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/30/111024/383/...

[yardwork]

1. We've known that Gallup polls were bought and sold for a while, this is more proof.

Personally, I don't know anyone who believes the polls anymore. They're being manipulated to make it look like McCain is within shouting distance when he's not.

[rebel with a cause]

5. My college stats classes taught us the most important thing

you need to know is that polls can be easily rigged and studies should not be solely based on them. I never put my faith totally in any of them. The Gallup lost me in 2004.

[Warpy]

12. Someone published their weighting formula back in 2004

showing they weighted heavily toward GOPs, something that consistently skewed their results 5-7% in favor of Stupid.

The only thing new about this is that one of their flunkies admitted it.

Gallup is now officially worthless.

[Selatius]

24. They do that simply by oversampling Republicans. That's how they weight it. nt

[The Backlash Cometh]

49. No question Gallup is pro Republican.

The worse kind.

[BrklynLiberal]

2. I just KNEW that those polls had to be a crock of u-know-what!!!!

So glad that my suspicions have been confirmed and the truth about those "polls" is coming out.
I sure hope that those that have been touting them will be eager to discuss their fallability as enthusiastically...

[youngharry]

31. Gallup polls

Gallup Polls are always up for sale to the highest bidder. They will always give you the answers that you pay for. Why anyone would ever trust Gallup is way beyond my comprehension.

GALLUP IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED---EVER!!

[gratuitous]

3. We gotta do something!

There's almost a hundred days until the election, and if people are tuning out because McThuselah is going down like one of his fighter jets, how in the world are the media chuckleheads going to keep their phony baloney jobs?! Report on issues? Faugh!

[CoffeeCat]

4. Call me a tin-foil hatter...

...but I think most of the polls are rigged. There seems to be a concerted effort between the media
and the pollsters to convince us that McCain and Obama are in a horse race.

There is no way in hell that McCain is within ten points of Obama. I'm sorry, I just don't believe it.

McCain is the WORST candidate the Republicans have put up, in decades. He's pathetic. Obama is drawing
Independents, and Independents tend to be more centrist and McCain is not a candidate who appeals to
the centrists. He's wrong on the war and the economy and he's clearly part of the big problem that is
corrupting our nation. McCain is in lockstep with Bush and everyone understands that. Independents aren't going for that.

Furthermore, Obama has overwhelming support in his own party. McCain does not. The Fundies aren't jazzed
about him. It's also important to note that many Republicans are crossing over and voting for Obama. This
was apparent during the primaries. I met plenty of Republicans who voted for Bush, but were crossing over
to Obama. You find none of this on McCain's side--with Dems going to McCain--none.

Best-case scenario, the media is doing this to create an exciting race to up their ratings. Worse-case scenario--they're
all giving the appearance of a tight race, so it will be easier to steal.

I believe NO poll that shows McCain ahead. It's just not possible. Polls that show Obama up only by single digits
are suspect, in my opinion.

By now, everything is rigged it seems. This latest on the Gallup poll just reinforces what we all ready know.

[Psyop Samurai]

7. Totally agree. nt

[ooglymoogly]

59. and I second that "totally agree"

its just that gallop is somewhat more brazen about its fraud. I also believe the corporate press seeks out the few McCain supporters to make it appear there are many more supporters than there are. Anyone would have to be brain dead to support this antediluvian nut case. I live in a very republican neighborhood and most are either not voting or voting for Obama. They have had enough fraud and corruption.

[DCKit]

8. You and me, both. And I don't need the hat.

The polls haven't made any sense in years.

Further, 43* is in the WH, along with many in Congress and on down to the local level, because the polls (not the exit polls, BTW) gave them the credibility (of the MSM) to get away with stealing their elections.

Why else scream from the mountain-tops about voter fraud when the real, and only, issue is election fraud? Just one of many "look over there" Republicon distractions.

[Lugnut]

13. There's no horse race.

Anybody who thinks there is needs a smack upside the head with a clue stick. We are living in a rigged environment.

[malaise]

16. That fugging simple

Rethugs are going to be whipped unless they find a way to stop the November elections.

[AzDar]

14. Spot-on.

[alstephenson]

20. I totally agree, too, TwoSparkles.

They are going to steal yet another election.

[LonelyLRLiberal]

21. Yep, setting up a "close race" scenario to cover up planned theft of the election.

Plain and simple.

[Jackpine Radical]

33. My money's on "easier to steal."

[DebJ]

34. Only way to keep the t.v. ratings and the polls themselves going.

[lonestarnot]

36. A frigg'n cheat is in the works. You can bet on that.

[donco6]

39. I believe you are absolutely right.

I don't know ANYONE who is "energized" by McCain. I haven't seen a SINGLE McCain sticker on a car. I haven't heard any of my acquaintances talking about him positively. Watching his performances is painful and embarassing. There is no way in hell it's this tight of a race.

[dreamnightwind]

40. OK, you're a tin-foil hatter.

Nothing wrong with that in my world, by the way, so no offense.

I agree that the powers-that-be want it to be close. The MSM gets ratings out of it, hence more advertising money. The repubs get a chance to steal a close election, as I am convinced they have been doing for awhile.

Where I differ with your opinion, and that of most of the posters in this thread, is the idea that Obama is necessarily out in front in this horse race (by the way, I AM outraged at the methodology of Gallop's "likely voter" poll).

I watch a ridiculous amount of MSM election coverage. I'm between jobs and have the tube on here at home most all the time. And I pay attention too. It's incredibly painful, but I do it anyway. Hopefully I'll get a life soon.

Anyway, the mostly subtle and sometimes not-so-subtle manipulation of the facts by the MSM just blows me away. Again and again, I just can't believe what I'm hearing, and I don't believe it. But these people are pros, they have their world-view (or their agenda) and are very skilled at promoting it.

I'm certain that the average 'mericun is completely unaware of this process, or even believes, as the MSM tells them to believe, that the situation is reversed, that the media is in love with Obama and promoting his candidacy.

Sad as it is, most people out there just accept that garbage as reality. To a frightening degree, the media creates whatever reality they want.

[RNdaSilva]

43. TwoSparkles,

I think that many Republicans, at least the thinking ones, would agree with you.

For me the only poll of interest is Intrade...well, not actually a poll. Follow the smart money.

Obama will win...in a landslide. Gallup followers...relax.

The two most accurate polls: About midnight on November 4th and December 15th. December 15th? Electoral College meets...to confirm.

[TexasObserver]

6. I took a poll and determined that Gallup is 90% full of shit.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

47. Heavily weighted towards flies?

[hughee99]

9. I always wondered how it was that a polling agency could

conduct 2-3000 interviews and tell you how 100+ million people are going to vote with in a margin of error of 3%. It just seems to me like this isn't a sufficient sample size to cover all the countless demographics out there accurately.

[CoffeeCat]

10. I need to ask this question....

If most of the top pollsters are corrupt--why on Earth can't some organization do a REAL poll?

If I had the money, I'd call 1,000 random numbers in the United States and do my own poll!

This needs to be done!

Some organization needs to fund a poll--to see what is REALLY going on out there. I bet Obama is
winning by at least 10-15 points. Seriously.

Are there any pollsters out there who are legitimate?

Is there any way a legitimate poll could be taken in the US??? Maybe if 100 DUers agreed to make
10 random calls...we could design our own poll. Then we could see what those results are.

I really think this should be done. We could ask basic, simple questions: Are you registered to vote?
Do you plan to vote for McCain or Obama or not sure?

Let's do it up!

[IndependentDem]

17. sounds like a good idea to me... let me know if it goes anywhere. n/t

[liskddksil]

18. college /university polls are usually good indicators

Their organizations are representing academic institutions. There is much less chance of malfeasance than with the business organizations who might be paid to put out faulty results.

[progressive_realist]

11. My first thought when I saw this poll was that they mis-weighted the parties

Turns out that's exactly what they did.

Since the results were so different from the Gallup daily polls, and the same organization is responsible for both, the only plausible explanation was that Gallup changed the methodology or the sample construction for this one. I know that the relative weighting by political party for the daily polls has been carefully constructed to reflect actual demographics, and that this is the trickiest part for getting accurate results. So anytime I see one-off outlier polls like this one, they probably did something really stupid like pretending there are as many Republicans as Democrats in this country.

[elehhhhna]

15. POLL FRAUD MUST PRECEDE VOTE FRAUD

[DearAbby]

19. Ding ding ding....n/t

[ooglymoogly]

26. Yes, and clean up the mess after with fudged exit polls....

The Gallops are fundies...here is a quote from the old man.

"I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone—the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity."

They do not believe in evolution.

[ooglymoogly]

30. Here is the skinny the way I see it...

Gallop throws a crooked softball to the media and the corporate owned media puts it on a loop and runs it 24/7 on all the news programs so that it eventually for all practical purposes becomes a truthyness.

[Gman]

22. So the Gallup poll is essentially stupid

just stupid, hypothetical "what-if" BS.

If pigs had wings they could fly to the moon.

[Politicalboi]

23. I thought they were wrong

I never could figure how MaGoo who couldn't fill a stadium in his own state with "Knuckle Head Smith" be so close to Obama.

[ooglymoogly]

25. Gallop is a disgrace to this nation. It is biased claptrap and

and that is not something new. They gave cover to the last two thefts and are softening up the nation for another. Here is a quote from the old man.

"I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone—the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity."

I might ask what is the statistical balloon of impossibilities for the existence of the biblical God.

[whistle]

27. Pollster company has become a whore

[grantcart]

28. McCain is to Maverick as Gallup is to Polls both are working hard to lose their brand

Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today's own write-up, they reveal that "McCain's gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge."

[Willo]

29. Translation: we have successfully scrubbed the voter registrations lists

to eradicate the democrat's landslide.

[ooglymoogly]

32. Here is the skinny the way I see it...

Gallop throws a crooked softball to the media and the corporate owned media puts it on a loop and runs it 24/7 on all the news programs so that it eventually for all practical purposes becomes a truthyness.

[Phred42]

35. Malpractice MY ASS - IT IS FRAUD! Fascist FRAUD - let's wake up

This is FRAUD Designed to SUBVERT THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS - it is nothing SHORT of THAT! - Don't candy coat it for god sakes.
This is Terrorism against Democracy and the American People.

Gallup was caught OVER-POLLING republicans in 2000 and 2004
on a couple of occasions (each time ) just to make Bush's numbers look better.

No one in the Reality-based community should EVER take Gallup any more seriously than you'd take a FOX poll

.

[McCamy Taylor]

37. Ever since Warren Mitofsky created the "reluctant responder" theory the professional has degenerated

[dreamnightwind]

41. yes!

That "reluctant responder" invention of theirs had nothing to support it, yet the MSM trumpeted it anyway, and if anyone questioned it, they were conspiracy nuts. I'll never get over the feeling of watching those lies become conventional wisdom, with no credible data to support them.

Now the MSM is preparing us for the same thing, talking about how Obama is likely in worse shape than the polls show, due to a possible Bradley Effect. I've heard this a number of times already.

It's gonna be a rough ride. God (or whatever is out there) help us all.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

38. Bastards!

[Odin2005]

42. There are lies, there are damned lies, and finally there are statistics.

If I were all-powerful I would ban polls of all electoral races within 6 months of the election.

[TexasObserver]

44. Guess who is more likely to respond to polls in the midst of summer?!

It's not people under 60. They're traveling. They're going to the beach. They're out with their kids or with their partner/spouse.

One thing that is unsaid is the flaw of polling: it is inherently imprecise. Even if they could poll every person in the United States, all at the same instant in time, the results might be wrong. Because not everyone will tell the truth to a pollster, not everyone will be alive on election day, and not everyone will vote on election day.

If you want to skew a poll one direction, there are a multitude of ways to stack that deck of cards:

*poll a disproportionate number of GOPers

*poll a disproportionate number of older voters

*poll a disproportionate number of white voters

*poll on weekends

*poll only land lines

*make the poll long and full of questions

*poll at times of day young people are less likely to answer the phone

[riverdeep]

45. Yes, a lot of people have gotten rid of their land lines completely.

Or have caller ID and won't pick up an unrecognized number. They are creating their own reality. Which when enough people believe it, actually does become real.

[DallasNE]

46. This Poll Doesn't Even Give Gallup What They Were Looking For

When using an even split between Republicans and Democrats you will pick up Blue-Dog Democrats that often vote Republican for President. The Blue-Dog's help explain why the Democrats, with an 11 point registeration advantage, aren't projecting to a blow-out win by Obama. Also, the questions on voting history for "likely" voters weeds out young voters, a group that is very strong for Obama. Given the data that Gallup used the surprise is that McCain didn't have more than a 4 point lead. This poll is actually bad news for McCain.

[The Backlash Cometh]

48. They got away with this because you all gave them credence when they

said Obama was ahead. Gallup is the Karl Rove of the pollster world. They will work those statistics, manipulate the process to get the results they want. Don't you remember that they would, as a standard, pick more Republicans than Democrats for a poll, and kept this fact hidden until a DUer uncovered it? And then they said that it was legitimate because more Republicans vote than Democrats?

Gallup should be dismissed, and never used as a valid polling company on DU.

[ooglymoogly]

53. And lest we forget....

Gallop gave the election to republican Dewey back in the day, over Harry Truman by fifteen points but the voters paid no mind and voted for Truman by a mile. But that was then this is corporatocracy now. The citizenry was not brainwashed to become corporate robots as they are now.

[CTyankee]

55. My understanding is that the Truman poll was done by telephone and

therefore was skewed to Republicans who were wealthier and more likely to even have a telephone than poorer Democrats. At that point in time not every American household had a phone...

[ooglymoogly]

56. A polling co. searching for the truth would have understood that and acted accordingly.

Beside that I take issue with your analysis. Though I was only a child then and living on a rural farm, there was nobody I knew or even heard of who did not have a telephone. I think you are thinking of the depression years and before but even then phones were a common thing, even a necessity for most people to have. In 1948 the cost of a telephone was regulated in all states so that most folks could have this necessity.

[CTyankee]

57. I suspect that polling was not then the science that it is now.

However, it is really the same thing with cell phones today. There's no way to historically "weight" for cell phone only users.

[The Backlash Cometh]

58. Is this a joke?

It was Gallup who was responsible for that screw up?

Maybe the Repubs were trying to steal it back then, too?

[defendandprotect]

50. Of course the "polls" are being fixed --- always have been ---

and we don't only have election steals since 2000 ---

we've had election steals since the coup on our government in '63 ---

http://www.constitution.org/vote/votescam__.htm

Large computer counters began coming in and media was using them ---

[defendandprotect]

51. ...so figure out that the truth is probably disastrous to GOP/McCain ---

[Overseas]

52. KICK KICK because I believe it isn't fair to even-out likely voters

when there have been far more new Democratic registrations and so few people nowadays want to register as Republicans or admit they're from that party of disasters.

[ooglymoogly]

54. Pugs are 5 star cooks (at least to pugs) when it comes to cooking the books

to their benefit and CNN-Gallop is a pug dominated world making up its own reality.