ONE MORE TIME: STOLEN AGAIN -- HERE ARE FACTS -- USE THEM!

[politmuse1]

I tried earlier, and no one wanted to believe it. Maybe now you do? *THE FIX IS IN.*

If we're afraid to call it as is, there's no chance we'll ever see democracy or a Democrat elected in this country every again. PLEASE WAKE UP AND SMELL THE ROSES.

Here are some facts:

(1) All exit polls had Kerry ahead in in FL and OH.

(2) All Democrats were completely confident, based (I'm sure) on internal polls. Kennedy said Kerry won. He was sure. So was the DNC chair, who referred to Kerry as president-elect.

(3) Canadian TV (CTV) said it will be an early landslide (their word) for Kerry. They had inside information.

(4) Exit polls have always been correct -- until they pulled FLorida away from Gore, and Bush took power by force. Since then no exit poll has ever been any good. Coincidence?

(5) In the midterm elections, the VERY SAME thing happened as tonight. Polls nationwide favored Democrats, and then the GOP won every state -- and the exit polls vanished!!! Pollsters had never been so wrong. IT WAS THE FIRST TIME MACHINES WERE USED.

(6) We all know who owns the Diabold (Diabolical) voting machines. And it ain't the Democrats.

(5) Every historical predictor pointed to a Kerry victory: the large turnout, Bush's approval ratings, the economy, and the fact that he consistently polled under 50 or even 48%. No president had ever won with such low numbers.

And then magically everything reversed itself and Bush wins. Do you guys believe this is for real?

I don't know what we can do. But at the very least I suggest:

-- Write letters to every paper and every person you know, outlining the facts above (plus everything you can add about the electronic voting machines -- lots of info out there).

-- Write Kennedy and others who KNOW Kerry had the real vote. We need them to come forward and speak out.

-- We need strategy. We can't just go and protest and be angry. It will look like we can't accept defeat. We need to get our facts and target our message. Or else forget about this country.

Ideas? Drop me a line.
 

[NMDemDist2]

1. here

www.november3.us

[G_j]

7. No Stolen Elections! Campaign

To: Urgent Response Network
From: No Stolen Elections! Campaign

Dear Friends,

It is here: Election Day 2004. Now is the time to make sure everyone gets
to the polls and casts their vote. But we also know that there also have
already been major voting rights problems, and that's why tens of thousands
have already signed the No Stolen Elections! pledge. If there is
significant election fraud, we are committed to be out on the streets
protesting as long as necessary to ensure that every vote is counted.

Many national groups and leaders such as Julian Bond, Jesse Jackson and
Dolores Huerta have become part of this Urgent Response Network. Late on
election night, November 2nd, we will put out the word through the
www.nov3.us website, text messages and massive emailing about whether or
not we will activate the network. Please read this second action alert,
and get ready.

* * *

NO STOLEN ELECTIONS! www.Nov3.US
Second Action Notice:

1. WATCH for the Word - In the case of significant election fraud,
the Urgent Response Network will be be activated via email, phone,
text-messaging, and the web. To receive notice as to whether the network
has been activated, you can check the www.Nov3.US website, you can check
your email (if you've provided it to us), and you can receive text message
updates (see below). The Network will help provide up-to-date information
and identify important demands, messages, and action sites!

2. NEW Text Messaging Service - Please sign up to receive the word
via your cell phone. We are no longer using textmob as our main
service. You can either sign up for our very own text messaging service at
http://voip.radicaldesigns.org/subscribe.php?organization_ID=9, or you can
sign up by simply calling in to 917-779-0015 from your cell phone.

3. PREPARE Your Local Response - Go to the website and click on
"Directory of Local Actions," and see if someone in your community has
already organized a rally, public meeting, or other event for November 3rd,
and beyond. If so, please contact them and help them out. If not, take
steps NOW to organize an event, and please post the details on the
website. Click on "What You Can Do" for tips and suggestions for your
local organizing, and for a PDF poster you can download for local
use. Please share any press releases you send out with out media team:
[email protected] - please also send us any local media coverage of your No
Stolene Elections! organizing.

4. CONTRIBUTE - Go to the website and click on "Contribute!" to make
a contribution to the No Stolen Elections! campaign. For the timebeing,
the costs of coordinating this campaign are limited to field support, web,
communications costs. But we expect that if Urgent Response Network is
mobilized, costs will increase significantly. We need to be
prepared. Please contribute today.

5. SPREAD the word - Go to the website and click on "Spread the
Word." Use the form that is there to send out a letter to everyone you
know asking them to join you in signing the pledge. On that same "Spread
the Word" page there is also a banner at the bottom. Click on that to see
an array of banners and buttons you can add to your website as links to the
No Stolen Elections! campaign.

6. READ & FORWARD the following No Stolen Elections! article:

Florida's Palm Beach County Bracing for the Electoral Storm

By Medea Benjamin and Deborah James
November 1, 2004

(West Palm Beach, Florida) Odile Dumas' daughter Monique, a student at
Howard University in Washington D.C., was so anxious to vote that back in
September she requested an absentee ballot from Palm Beach County in
Florida. On Friday, just five days before the election, when her ballot
still hadn't arrived, she called her mother Odile in a panic. Odile
immediately went to the Supervisor of Elections office to get her
daughter's ballot and Federal Express it to her. But the lines were too
long and she had to get to work. So she returned on Saturday and took her
place on line. "My black ancestors were jailed and killed for trying to
vote," said Odile. "The least I can do is stand in line so that my daughter
can vote." Odile's patience turned to exasperation, however, when the
8-hour wait meant that she had missed the deadline for Federal Express and
the wait was all for naught. "My daughter has just lost her right to vote,"
said Odile. "Is this the democracy we fought for?"

Odile was not alone in her frustration. Also on line was Shelly Marcus,
trying to get an absentee ballot that her son Joshua, a student at Emory
College, had requested on September 11. "My son is 18 and this was his
first opportunity to vote for president. I'm ashamed that once again, Palm
Beach can't get it right." Gregory Berman, who waited on line for 8 hours
and 40 minutes to get an absentee ballot for his 90-year-old father in a
nursing home, was furious. "No one in America should have to wait 8 hours
to vote, and certainly not to get an absentee ballot that the county was
supposed to send out long ago. What you are witnessing here in Palm Beach
County is democracy in crisis­again."

Welcome to Palm Beach County, home in 2000 of the infamous butterfly
ballots, "Jews for Buchanan", and hanging chads. The infamous Supervisor of
Elections Theresa LePore was voted out of office in this past August ­ but
unfortunately her term doesn't end until January. That gives her an
opportunity to muck up one more election as her parting salvo. And before
election day has even arrived, it looks like she's succeeding.

In both Palm Beach County and neighboring Broward County, run by a
Democratic Supervisor, there have been a record number of requests for
absentee ballots­mostly from the elderly, disabled, voters living outside
the county, and people who don't trust the new paperless voting machines.
Both counties have been flooded by complaints from people who never
received their ballots. In Broward, when the media reported that 58,000
absentee ballots seemed to have "disappeared," Supervisor Brenda Snipes
opened up an emergency center to field calls, brought in volunteers to call
all 21,000 out-of-town voters, and overnighted thousands of ballots with
prepaid overnight return envelopes. Here in Palm Beach County, Theresa
LePore's constituents had no comparable support.

Ms. LePore also put obstacles in the way of people wanting to vote early.
One of the solutions to the calamity of the 2000 election was to institute
early voting, an option for voters to go to the polls up to two weeks in
advance. It is estimated that one-third of Florida's voters will take
advantage of this new option. Yet after 10 days of voting, out of 744,000
registered voters in Palm Beach County, less than 30,000 had been able to
vote early­ one of the lowest turnouts in the state. One reason is that
Theresa LePore offered her constituents only eight locations for early
voting in the entire county, making the waiting time in Palm Beach County
longer than anywhere else in the state. "These long lines are ridiculous,"
said Omar Khan, whose father, a diabetic who was fasting for Ramadan, was
forced to abandon his attempt to vote after hours of standing in the hot
sun. "Either it is tremendous incompetence or deliberate voter suppression.
In either case, the supervisor is not doing her job." Liz Grisaru, a
volunteer lawyer with Kerry's Voting Rights Protection Team, said that they
had tried to negotiate with Theresa LePore for more early voting locations,
more voting machines, more poll workers, and longer hours, but all of their
efforts were rebuffed. "The Supervisor has failed miserably in her duty to
the public by not responding to the large volume of voters," said Ms. Grisaru.

Another example of Ms. LePore's attempts to put up obstacles relates to
newly registered voters. Secretary of State Glenda Hood, herself an old
family friend of the Bushes who is proving to be as partisan as her
predecessor Katherine Harris, directed county officials to nullify
applications if the applicants didn't check a box saying they were
citizens, despite the fact that elsewhere on the application they have
signed an oath of citizenship. While Broward and Miami-Dade counties are
ignoring this bureaucratic requirement that disenfranchises new voters, in
Palm Beach, Ms. LePore is following the directive.

And don't forget the issue of direct disenfranchisement of former felons -
a practice which dates back to the times of slavery. This year's list in
Florida, prepared by a private consulting firm that donates heavily to the
Republican Party, disproportionately included African Americans (who vote
Democrat nine to one) yet only 61 Hispanic names (who vote heavily
Republican in Florida). The list was dropped after a lawsuit forced the
list into the light of day, yet the ACLU estimates that 600,000 people in
Florida, predominantly African Americans, are denied their voting rights
because of their criminal history,

Another explosive issue is the paperless electronic voting machines that
will be used by about half the voters in Florida. Ms. LePore spent $14
million in federal funds provided by the Help America Vote Act on this
supposed solution to the problems of the butterfly ballots and hanging
chads of the 2000 elections. But to be audited in the case of a close
election or contested voting, electronic voting machines must yield a paper
trail. Yet Glenda Hood and Ms. LePore fought to make it illegal to do a
paper recount. Since the introduction of paperless electronic voting in
March of 2002, Palm Beach County has witnessed one election in which the
front-runner ­ who entered the election with a 17-point lead over his
nearest opponent ­ finished an upset third. In the following two elections,
the number of people who came to vote - but whose votes were not registered
­ greatly exceeded the margin of victory. These inexplicable anomalies
sufficiently outraged local Democratic Congressman Robert Wexler that he
unsuccessfully filed suit against Ms. LePore and the State of Florida to
force the adoption of a paper trail.

So while hundreds of thousands of citizens in Florida are being prevented
from voting due to problems with absentee ballots, obstacles in early
voting, excessive technicalities barring registration, and felon
disenfranchisement, even those who actually make it to the polls have
little guarantee that their votes will be counted correctly by the voting
machines. If the strategy of the democratic forces is an unprecedented
voter mobilization, the strategy of the Republicans in Florida is clearly
voter suppression and possibly even outright theft.

What we've seen in Florida so far demonstrates a clear lesson. The efforts
of tens of thousands of volunteers to get folks registered and out to vote
are paying off handsomely with massively increased voter participation. The
efforts of monitors documenting irregularities like the Fair Election
International (www.fairelection.us) delegation of Global Exchange
(www.globalexchange.org) and groups like Election Protection
(www.electionprotection.org) to help voters resolve problems, are
indispensable. Yet the specter of a stolen election looms large, and
Floridians are bracing themselves.

"I'm worried," said Janis Botsko, a local Democratic activist who has been
working non-stop to register voters, call voters and knock on their doors.
"I think there are going to be a lot of shenanigans. After all, we have the
grand combination of Jeb Bush, Glenda Hood and Theresa LePore. But we also
have a plan to counter their shenanigans, and that is to overwhelm them
with huge numbers of voters. There will be such a groundswell that they
won't be able to get away with it."

And if that doesn't work, these angry voters will not sit by quietly. Many
have already signed the No Stolen Elections Pledge (see www.nov3.us) and
are setting up their emergency protest sites at federal buildings and
elections offices, just in case. "Here in Florida we've learned to prepare
for hurricanes," said West Palm activist Brian Hefner. "And if that's what
happens on November 2, this time we'll be ready."

Medea Benjamin and Deborah James are in Florida observing the election with
CodePink (www.codepinkalert.org). They are also part of the No Stolen
Election campaign (www.nov3.us).

* * *


NO STOLEN ELECTIONS! www.Nov3.US

"This struggle may be a moral one, or it may be a physical one, and it may
be both moral and physical, but it must be a struggle. Power concedes
nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just
what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact
measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these
will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with
both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom
they oppress." ~ Frederick Douglass, 1857

[PATRICK]

17. The media is a big part of the problem

It's more than election fraud. It's information fraud with zero accountability, zero fairness standards. You'd might as well go to the mob and some say this has been done by unions or parties(other than the GOP too!) in the past.

These explosive issues have been exploding - in our heads- for the past four years. More for some of us. Yeah, I used to thrill with the experience of being an armchair reformist as 60 minutes picked off one little thing after another. Some laws got past. And the Dem Congress and fattening advocacy sort of made things easier without "radical" reform.

Now we have radical fascism. Whoops, how did that happen? By never really progressing democracy at least since WWII. Weeds grow, flies buzz in empty heads. I trust the media. I vote, don't I? Things seem great. I have confidence. The biggest nation of cultivated suckers on earth and plenty ripe with goodies.

It can get rosy again, not perfect. it can get fatally bad and maybe, just maybe end it all. Life is skewed to constant struggle not heavenly entropy.

Right now Kerry is fighting with the skeletal remains of the justice system, all subsumed under the ultimate GOP edge.

[NVMojo]

2. without a paper trail, what can be done to prove this??

we need to do something but my brain can't think past examining evidence. How did we ever let it come to this?

[LisaL]

3. I have no clue. I know we have tried to sue, but those

XXXXXX judges ruled it's all well and dandy.
:nuke:

[politmuse1]

5. How? Because we did nothing in 2000, that's why

It came to this because everyone accepted the election theft in 2000. They knew they could get away with everything. I screamed my lungs out for 4 long years that Gore won. People told me to "move on." Now it's happening again. Will we move on again?

[Dems4HowardDean]

26. Are voter rolls available to the public? If so would it be legal

to call and verify their votes? (Ohio & Fla.) Just wondering...

[FizzFuzz]

4. I'm with you. I don't have any good ideas but I'm on this team.

keep this kicked.

I'm pissed, I feel like puking, but I won't go belly up. We need each others support and good ideas now.

Keep this kicked

[Old and In the Way]

6. Diebold delivered.

Our democracy is broken.....I will not believe the vote anymore until we can recount it. I don't believe people tell exit pollers that they vote Kerry and Bush wins. Nope, total bullshit.

How about everyone who did vote strike? Shut this country down for a week or so.

[psychopomp]

22. This bs needs to be fought NOW

Minds greater than mine are surely on this; may they have the energy left to go over the OH vote with a fine-toothed comb.

Keep hope alive!

[kerry2win]

8. WE HAVE TO MAKE A STAND

PERIOD .THIS CANT STAND THIS IS CIVIL WAR

[Copperred]

31. .....if u say so

its only civil war if you pick up a gun

[Was_Immer]

9. Do you think this will reverse the election?

YOu are just making it harder to admit being a democrat! Stolen elections again? Sure they cheated, but come on, swallow one for the team!

Right now im sick of the democratic party for this pathetic showing. Where was the rock the vote? Where were the massive anti war voters? Where were the fahrenheit 911 voters.

I will no longer ever call myself a democrat again!

[Is It Fascism Yet]

12. I can tell you where they were, they voted early by mail and not counted

the mail votes, folks, its all about the early mail votes, they are virtually all for Kerry, it is how many of his voters chose to vote, because they didn't want to be cheated by diebold. what we have to do is MAKE them count the mail votes.

[checks-n-balances]

14. We can't turn on our own like you're doing, and we can't give in like 2000

What you're saying sounds just like Ralph Nader. So how long have you been a dem anyway?

[NVMojo]

21. Immer, you must be a troll. You don't live in reality.

[Lars39]

10. Only thing you left out was the media calling the states.

[Is It Fascism Yet]

11. We have to get the early by mail ballots counted

we have to get the early by mail ballots counted because a great many kerry voters went that route to avoid diebold cheating. everyone knows that, notably the republicans who are already trying to obtain court orders saying we don't have to count the early by mail votes. that about sucks because that is how my entire family voted. We want our votes counted, and this is america, we can't let them get away with saying they are not going to count our votes anymore.

[politmuse1]

13. It's the machines, stupid (forget recounts)

Recounts will do us no good. The machines will spew the same numbers.

Somehow we need to break through to the world about the machines. If we can't do that, we have no hope.

[DaveofCali]

15. FUCK THE REPUBLICAN NAZI'S

[Selteri]

16. As I said, there were problems already at the polls,

I suspect that there will be a lot comming out if herr Bush doesn't manage to sweep it under the carpet.

I only hope another watergate happens.

[politmuse1]

18. P.S. The head of Diebold promised to deliver Ohio for Kerry

Forgot to mention that:

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0828-08.htm)

[AirAmFan]

19. Y2K & 2002 exit poll data have REAPPEARED, at THIS URL:

DU researchers may want to take a good look, to see wheter patterns in earlier elections are being repeated this year.

The Voter News Service exit-poll data for the 2000 and 2002 and previous elections are available online at http://webapp.icpsr.umich.edu/cocoon/ICPSR-STUDY/03527.xml

Interestingly, there are NO citations of 'Related Literature' available through that link. I don't know whether this is just a bibliographic problem or whether no reputable statistical studies of the 2000 exit poll fiasco have been published.

Does anyone here know?

From http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cgi/CITATIONS/search.prl?&study=03527&method=study&path=ICPSR

"Voter News Service General Election Exit Polls, 2000 (ICPSR 03527)

Sorry, there are currently no citations in the Bibliography of Data-related Literature pertaining to Voter News Service General Election Exit Polls, 2000 (ICPSR <03527>). If you are aware of any publications related to this study, please let us know using our online Bibliography Citation Submission form."

[BrightKnight]

20. Results too statistically Improvable to be Believed

It appears to me that is is highly improvable that in two consecutive elections the vote count would be literally within a few votes in almost every state. How statistically provable is this result? This is all one huge homogenous thing. There are hundreds of millions of votes to a precision of literally a few. The idea that every vote is critical and counts is cute but what is really happening here. It appears much much much more provable that the results are being manipulated. I am most inclined to believe that the winning party is doing the manipulating.

[crispini]

23. Agree.

:kick:

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[stepnw1f]

25. Bush Supporters Really Do Enjoy the Division Don't They?

Your post is a proven fact.

[Tsiyu]

27. What can we do? What are our options?

This election can't be real. It just doesn't make any sense, not after the way everything has been going, not after those exit polls early in the day yesterday, not after election workers everywhere were commenting about the record voter turnout, only for reporters later to claim that there were only 108 million voters (about 3 million more than last time). I have no doubt that they would steal it, and wouldn't lose any sleep about it.

My question is, what do we do about it? What are our legal options? Is there a possibility that DU itself could take legal action to demand to see the results of those blackboxes for ourselves? Or maybe that we could fuse with BBV which is doing the same thing?

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

I don't know how realistic an option that is, but I've been thinking about it since last night and that's the only compelling possibility I've come up with.

[luaptifer]

28. LIARS! All exit polls matched results except OH and FL

My tired brain cannot recall where I've posted this but it agrees with YOUR basic factset. You might want to hit the Daily Kos to see what's gong on there, I believe those guys were involved in revealing exposing the georgewbush.com --> *.org email story. They are quite active. Anyhow...

LIARS! All exit polls matched results except OH and FL
by LondonYank


Wed Nov 3rd, 2004 at 05:34:38 EDT

It saddens me greatly to report that the voters in Florida and Ohio are staggeringly dishonest. They appear to have uniquely lied to the exit pollsters yesterday, unlike the honest citizens of every other state. This seems the only rational explanation for the very big discrepancy between (the original) exit poll results and the outcomes of their (reported) votes.
It is sad when the citizens of such fine states cannot be relied on to accurately report their votes. It is a good thing that Diebold is there to report their votes for them.

See below the fold for substantiation of the mismatch between exit polls and reported results courtesy of Requiem99 at DU.

Diaries :: LondonYank's diary ::


The assertion by pundits/Bushies that exit polling was 'way off', and thus, exit polls, which showed an easy Kerry victory in both Ohio and Florida, were incorrectly skewed and did not represent the electorate, is completely bogus.
This is disproved in minutes by simply noting the entire rest of the suite of exit polls conducted by AP and distributed to the news media. View here:

AP exit polls

Notice, if you will, that states with a narrow or wide Bush margin of victory NOT called Ohio or Florida, project perfectly. Missouri leans to Bush in exit polls, and leaned to him in the vote. Tennessee likewise was favorable to Bush in exit polls, and it showed in the final results with a clear Bush margin of victory. Pick a state, any state, there is not one single exit poll off by more than a few percentage points in any semi-competitive race. Not one.

Except 2. Ohio and Florida, the latter of which has already been "awarded" to Bush, and the former, which appears to nearly be a lock for him as he is up 3 percentage points with 80 percent of the electorate tallied. George Bush's win in each of these 2 states is nowhere near what exit polls suggest. In Ohio, Kerry had a small but noticeable lead with both male and female voters, a rare thing for him as males have tended to favor Bush in this election by a small margin. Likewise, independent voters clearly broke for Kerry, by a 21 percent margin, 60-39. This is not anywhere near the result we are seeing now, and along with Florida, whom I will get to in a moment, it is a clear and blatant sign of voter fraud. I don't use that most dangerous of "F" words lightly, but I must call a wolf a wolf and a sheep a sheep, and this whole setup stinks like Karl Rove after he's ran 15 feet.

. . . While Mr. Kerry had 6 percent less support from his party than Mr. Bush did, he scored among woman yet again (54 percent of Florida's electorate) by a 52-48 margin, small but important, while losing men (46 percent of the electorate) 47-52, essentially the same margin. Independents, however, broke heavily for John Kerry, favoring him a staggering 60-38 over Mr. Bush. At the very least, this would suggest a very close race, and certainly not the lopsided blowout it turned out to be.

As Joe Pesci once said, "Something is fishy in Florida."

Ohio too, Joe. Ohio too.

Another analysis of the data from SoCalDemocrat also indicates that there is a significant imbalance between the exit polls and the results.


Here is exit polling for Florida (3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush)
Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%

Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

Dem: 86/13 Kerry 38%

Rep: 92/7 Bush 39%

Ind: 60/38 Kerry 23%

3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush

2065388 Women (54% of total)

1759405 Men (46% of total)

Bush leads male vote by 5% of M = 87970

Kerry leads female vote by 4% of M = 82615

That means Bush is ahead by just 5355 votes in exit polling in FL.

Another odd thing is that there are more Reps then Dems in Florida by 1%, which is not expected. Either there are more voting Republicans in FL than Democrats, a first and not matching known statistics, or more Republicans were exit polled than Democrats. If the exit poll is off by just 1% that's a difference of 382479 more voters who are Democracts.

The results being posted however show Bush ahead 326,000 actual votes. This is simply not possible from the exit polling numbers. Even skewed for a 5% higher Republican vs. Democrat turnout from 2000, it doesn't add up.

When you add this to the stories about the changed exit polls in the middle of the night after polls had long closed, there appears to be some dishonesty somewhere. It's a good thing that EarlG at DU was farsighted enough to do a screencapture of the earlier posted exit polls for comparison.

Now the interesting comparison for statistical wonks out there will be the exit polls in counties with old fashioned voting in OH and FL against counties with blackbox voting. If our fellow citizens who lied to the exit pollsters are highly concentrated not just in Ohio and Florida but in counties with Diebold machines, then we will know something truly worth knowing. It will also be interesting to compare the recorded numbers of voters in these districts as reported by the election observers with the recorded votes.

I'd hate to think ill of so many fellow citizens . . .

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3/53438/6175

[Faun Otter]

33. More complete analysis of exit poll data

* I'm putting this analysis up in its own thread because it is very important.

Try this for yourself: Grab one site which lists the exit polls before they were "corrected.” Correction is the procedure by which the exit polls are retrofitted to match the figures provided by the vote counting machines. It is easily done by changing the exit poll results, such as the 2.00 a.m. flip-flop of the Nevada exit poll scores which was done without any change to the sample size.

A slightly less obvious sleight of hand is to alter the weighting. Weighting is the name for a multiplier used to correct sample subgroups to match the proportions in the whole of a state population. Thus an exit poll can be ‘corrected’ by saying something to the effect,
“Oh well, the vote results show we must have under sampled Republicans and therefore we’ll multiply that subgroup of the exit poll sample by 1.5 to make our results fit the figures the ballot counting machines are spitting out.”

Here is one list as an example of raw exit poll data:
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386

Then take a look at the results by state, such as on this chart:
http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults

There is a bit of math involved but don't worry, I taught market research at a University - a place where Republicans fear to tread, according to the media’s own polls! The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they don’t say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result,, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.

What do we actually see when comparing exit polls with actual results?

There is skew - but ONLY in states which the Republicans had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew is in the same direction every time; that is to say in favor of Bush.

The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts. They are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll figures.

Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each pair of figures. Published = the figure presented as the vote count as of 10.00 a.m. EST on 11/3/04

AZ Poll one 45-55 Final 45-55 Published 44-55
CO Poll one 48-51 2nd 48-50 3rd 46-53 Published 46-53
LA Poll one 42-57 Final 43-56 Published 42-57
MI Poll one 51-48 Published 51-48 Published 51-48
IOWA Poll one 49-49 3rd 50-48 Final 49-49 Published 49-50
NM Poll one 50-48 2nd 50-48 3rd 50-48 Final 50-49 Published 49-50
ME 3rd 55-44 Published 53-45
NV: 3rd 48-49 Published 48-51
AR: 3rd 45-54 Published 45-54
MO Final 46-54 Published 46-53

These tracking polls were right where you would expect them to be and within the margin of error. However, if we look at some other states, the figures are beyond curious. either the exit polls were wrong or the vote count is wrong:

WI Poll one 52-48 3rd 51-46 Final 52-47 Published 50-49
PA Poll one 60-40 3rd 54-45 Final 53-46 Published 51-49
OH Poll one 52-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 49-51
FL Poll one 51-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 47-52
MINN Poll one 58-40 3rd 58-40 Final 54-44 Published 51-48
NH Poll one 57-41 3rd 58-41 Published 50-49
NC Poll one 3rd 49-51 Final 48-52 Published 43-56

Taking the figures and measuring the size and direction of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, we find:

WI Bush plus 4%
PA Bush plus 5%
OH Bush plus 4%
FL Bush plus 7%
MINN Bush plus 7%
NH Bush plus 15%
NC Bush plus 9%

Our election results appear to have been tampered with to give Bush some unearned electoral votes.

Again.

Faun

[Norman_Bates_Sr]

29. Here are two ideas!

Let's go for a level playing field. 

 First, We will never Socialize the Medical care with the
Republicans in power, so let's socialize the Legal System!
Yes, our lawyers did and do a wonderful job.  However, the
Republicans just have more money. So, why not Socialize the
Legal Field.  Think of the benefits.  The poor would have as
good a representation as the rich, regardless if it were
criminal or civil.  There are a lot of dedicated people who
want justice!  Please give this though serious consideration.


Second, let's promote the idea of the minimum wage increase as
a Republican position.  Here is what I mean. Push for the $1 /
hr wage increase BUT for ALL workers.  Suggest that the
increase be made TAX FREE, the Republicans will love that
idea.  Then, require that the dollar per hour, a significant
sum, be placed in the medical accounts that they Republicans
tout.  I am sorry, I do not know how the Reps. think their
plan will work. This way, we get the pay increase for the poor
and medical coverage for almost all! Let's get together on
this. :bounce: 

[SkyeTerrier]

30. Yep

I have to agree, there are some shenanigans going on with this election. Things just don't add up, this election is being stolen, no doubt about it. OTOH, I have to say if this is for real, and there is no fraud; America is getting what it deserves. Perhaps after another 4 years of being raped by this administration the sheeple will wake up.

[sunnystarr]

32. Does anyone know

how many absentee ballots there are in FL and if they're counted yet?

[PATRICK]

34. I wrote Hagel

Look for someone with a shred of integrity who knows damn well what is going on.

We may get a whistleblower but time is nmopt on our side. All our eggs are currently in a very exposed basket- according to the media view anyway. Squeaking in technically is NOT enough. Bush just tried to pull the same stunt they had prepared to do in 2000, with impunity, without variation or shame.

We must remove all support for the major electronic media outlets and the pussyfooting newspapers. Uncondtionally.

Now it is we who are begging like the Black Caucus( I should say WITH the Black caucus) for someone anyone to do their duty.

I am shamed. I did not march against Vietnam. I wisely knew its limits and how it was being gamed into social decisions devoid of cause or context. I knew they knew it was a losing wear. I knew they would stop it. Time dragged on. That other smart guy McNamara seeks redemption in feeble futility. Too late. So fing smart. And I STILL am thinking that protests are not near enough! I believe the best I can do is from this keyboard. I can barely speak on the phone and not blow it.

My whole life has been this version of the American Berlin Wall, and we can just walk away anytime or act without getting shot or tortured(so far). As during the Mondale campaign I walked the streets where very few even shared my pitiful sense of urgency and token show. Even if the election were fair my fellow citizens don't get it at all.

And how much personal investment do I pour into fighting the odd crusade against obsolescent villains? Pitiful. I thought it was a fine joke that I had some effect after all. Now with two keystrokes any moron can steal my life, my world, my humanity, my hope. And we are going to wait until violence, hideously laughing, replaces our lost civic opportunities? What a long way to slide that is. And how inevitable. And how uselessly tragic.