Exit polls from PA

[deminks]

Morning Joe and Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC have reported twice this morning that the exit polls in PA at 5pm yesterday showed that Sen. Obama would win by 5% yesterday. Joe says the exit polls were off by 15%! Andrea verified this.

Are these the raw data polls that we never see? before they are adjusted to fit?

Anyone else hear this?


And, no, I don't have a frog in this race. I will vote for either candidate in the general. I am only restating what Joe Schmoe said.

[snappyturtle]

1. Exit polls are only important in other countries' elections!

I can't help but wonder if we're being set up again.

[Tarc]

2. Yep. 7:30am and here comes the tinfoil

[BeFree]

14. Tin foil?

Wow, you are just the ticket, aren't you? No discussion, just a one-liner crapolla.

Obviously the gov. has gotten to you and you think all is hunky-dory and whatever the gov tells you, you suck it up without even a question. Not my kind of people. Not at all.

[The Doctor.]

20. You just arrive on Planet?

[gear_head]

3. people lie. n/t

[Junkdrawer]

4. Ah, but you forget the new concept: Unweighted Exit Polls...

You see, exit polls MUST be weighted with machine counted results to be meaningful. *




* Procedure only valid for US Elections. In all other nations, large exit poll/vote count discrepancies constitutes fraud. Your mileage may vary.

[KaryninMiami]

5. We'll never know will we. We do know that just like NH, 85% were on electronic voting machines.

http://www.bradblog.com/= Read about the voting problems reported yesterday- and these are the ones we could see. The ones we cannot see took place - possibly-- in the machines.

Then there's the piece Brad ran on 4/21- http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5916#more-5916

The Pennsylvania Primary: Democracy of the Gods

Tuesday's Election Will be 'Unrecountable, Unverifiable, and Unauditable'...
On Tuesday night, you will be told who the winner of the Pennsylvania Primary is. You will accept it. You will have no choice. No matter who the winner really is. Or isn't

I do think it's odd that the exit polls went from too close to call- to a 10 point win for Hillary. But we'll never know what happened unless someone demands access to the source codes.

[DemReadingDU]

6. It is strange that the exit polls were off by that much.

But yesterday, the talking heads said Clinton had to win by 10% to stay in the race. She didn't win by 11% or 12% or 9%. She actually did win by 10%. Just a odd coincidence that Clinton won by the percentage that it was said she needed to win. And Zogby's polls did indicate Clinton would win.

[IndyOp]

24. She won by 9% -- 9.2% to be exact...

54.6% - 45.4% = 9.2%

*** 9,219 out of 9,264 Districts (99.51%) Reporting Statewide ***

CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,238,232 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,030,703 45.4%


http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us /

[texpatriot2004]

7. Exit Polls should not be off by that much. nt

[gear_head]

9. pollsters lie. n/t

[The Doctor.]

21. That's what all the RW said about the MOE in '00, '02, and '04...

You know what's funny?

Exit polls are stunningly accurate where there are paper ballots, and notoriously inaccurate where there are paperless DREs.


That tells the intelligent people that something is very fishy.

[Fly by night]

8. Can anyone provide a link to this 15% discrepancy b/ween exit poll and "reported" result?

Please post something other than "I saw this on TV." Not that I doubt you but I need a quotable reference for this discrepancy before speaking with my legislators this afternoon. Thanks.

Vote free or Die-bold.

[Junkdrawer]

10. Here:

...

On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls*, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.


But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

...

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZi...

[deminks]

11. Thanks for posting. I was just going to add this.

I was hoping someone taped the Morning Joe segment. It was in the very first part of the show. I will look around later.

[Bonn1997]

12. I can't believe Obama is not contesting this!

I don't see how I can continue to support him over Hillary if he's not willing to stand up against election fraud.

[Wilms]

13. .

[Cieran]

15. Contesting it

If Obama contested PA, the story on the front page for 2 weeks would be "Sore Loser Obama 'claims' Clinton cheated". Did she make good use of the electronic voting machines owned by her globalist/neo-con friends? Assuredly.

But since she could only commit fraud to the point of saving herself from the landslide in PA, and not giving herself a landslide victory (20% or more would have been waaay too obvious of a theft), she wasn't able to truly make a big impact on the post-election spin. Obama survived the theft, and calling attention to it will hurt him immediately and massively.

I agree that he needs to stand up for it. But doing so at this moment in time would be a massive mistake. Hillary tried to provoke him into the "sore loser" meme after rigging NH. He didn't fall for it then either. She's becoming more brazen in her stealing to try and provoke him into that corner, which will be her downfall. At this point, she has to steal NC/Indiana/Oregon so blatantly, that Obama won't need to be the one that calls it out in the MSM.

Obama is playing a brilliant game of chess. He learned from the mistakes of 2000, and is not going to let Hillary push that Republican meme of "sore loser".

[Bonn1997]

23. You're mostly right

Now wouldn't be the time to contest the elections. The best thing to do politically and in my opinion the only right thing to do morally would have been to stand up for the right to valid elections at *the first moment* when it was clear that there was consistent, systematic bias in vote counting favoring Hillary. It would have been a huge gamble politically and it could have been political suicide (although I think he'd still always keep his Illinois Senate seat). But decisions that test character are by definition TOUGH decisions with big consequences. Martin Luther King Jr. was willing to risk it all (not a political seat but his entire life!) for what he believed in. Gandhi was willing to die of starvation. How deeply does Obama really believe in the right to fair elections?

[rainy]

19. Ah, the overnight change. In the dark of the night our votes are stolen.

[tiptoe]

16. The PA Exit Poll matched TIA's True Vote Projection Model (Obama 51-52%)

Pennsylvania: A True Vote (not Recorded) Projection Model
TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PennsylvaniaVote...

April 20, 2008

The latest PA polls show the race tightening. The latest 5-poll moving average (Image) has Clinton leading by 47-43. But there are factors which don’t show up in the polls.

This model analysis takes the following factors into account:

1. 10–12% of voters are undecided. Professional pollsters usually allocate 67-90% to the “challenger”. Obama has just four years as a Senator and can be considered as the challenger — while the “incumbent” Clinton has high unfavorable ratings.
   
2. Democratic new voter registration in Philadelphia (strongly Obama). New voters are not polled.
   
3. Cell phone users are mostly younger (Obama) voters and can't be reached by the pollsters.

One would expect that Obama should do better than his final polling, but...
The true vote, as most of us know, is never equal to the official, recorded vote.
There is no reason to assume that this election will be any different.

There are other factors that the model does not account for:

1. Insufficient polling machines and long lines
   
2. Uncounted votes
   
3. Electronically switched votes

So be forewarned: The following model projections assume a fraud-free election.

Assume the following PA Base Case scenario:

1. Latest poll: Clinton leads 46–43.
   
2. Undecided voters break 60% for Obama.
   
3. Newly registered Democrats are approximately 10% of the electorate and 60% vote for Obama.
   
4. Cell phone users are approximately 10% of the electorate and 60% vote for Obama.

Given these (conservative) assumptions, Obama wins the Base Case with 51.3% of the vote.

Sensitivity Analysis I (25 scenarios)
Clinton's poll share ranges from 44–48% and Obama's from 43–47%.
Obama wins all 25 scenarios.
Obama's worst case scenario is 50.3% (he trails Clinton by 48-43% in the polls)
His best case is 53.7% (he leads in the polls by 47-44%)

Sensitivity Analysis II (20 scenarios)
Obama's share of the undecided vote ranges from 45–80%.
Obama's share of new voters ranges from 50–75%.
Obama wins 19 of 20 scenarios.
Obama's worst case scenario is 49.1% (he wins 45% of undecided and 50% of new voters)
His best case is 54.4% (he wins 80% of undecided and 75% of new voters)

Base Case Scenario

        Obama    Clinton    Total                      
Poll      43       46        89.0
Undec     6.6      4.4       11.0
New       6.0      4.0       10.0
Cell      6.0      4.0       10.0
 
Total    61.6     58.4      120.0
Share    51.3     48.7      100.0 

Sensitivity Analysis I

Clinton           Obama % poll share
%Shr       43       44       45       46       47
 44       52.3     52.7     53.0     53.3     53.7
 45       51.8     52.2     52.5     52.8     53.2
 46       51.3     51.7     52.0     52.3     52.7
 47       50.8     51.2     51.5     51.8     52.2
 48       50.3     50.7     51.0     51.3     51.7 

Sensitivity Analysis II

Obama             Obama % of Undecided                  
%New       45       55       60       75       80
 75       51.2     52.1     52.6     54.0     54.4
 70       50.8     51.7     52.2     53.5     54.0
 60       50.0     50.9     51.3     52.7     53.2
 50       49.1     50.0     50.5     51.9     52.3 

[Kip Humphrey]

17. Its obvious: RHr, reluctant Hillary responders.

[The Doctor.]

22. One more time... that's the REPUBLICAN explaination for the EP MOE.

You know what's funny?

Exit polls are stunningly accurate where there are paper ballots, and notoriously inaccurate where there are paperless DREs.


That tells the intelligent people that something is very fishy.

[starmaker]

18. AS THE FLIP GOES

on to Indiana

[IndyOp]

25. 60% of Indiana votes on paperfree e-voting machines...

BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!

I keep banging on my local Obama campaign to tell voters to use paper ballots during early voting. If they wait until election day they have no choice but to use the voting machines.

[deminks]

26. I posted a video from one of the Morning Joe segments from this morning

in the video forum here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[deminks]

27. Here is video of the segment that I saw this morning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcqdwgeLFU8

[DemReadingDU]

28. thankyou for the video