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Further confirmation of a Kerry Landslide: Reconciling the Final 5 Million Votes

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:12 PM
Original message
Further confirmation of a Kerry Landslide: Reconciling the Final 5 Million Votes
Edited on Mon Sep-17-07 03:52 PM by tiptoe
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllF...
A 13% discrepancy in margin between the first 117m recorded votes (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 5m (Kerry 53.5-Bush 43.4%) caused the Bush vote margin to decline from 3.5m to 3.0m. Apparently, vote-rigging ended after the first 117m votes were recorded. Late votes (absentees, etc.) were irrelevant as soon as Bush was declared the winner. Many pundits still refer to the Final vote as Bush 59.8-Kerry 56.4m. And Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the first 117m recorded votes.

The final 5m closely matched the True vote. The discrepancy confirms the Election Calculator analysis which determined that Kerry won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for 2000 recorded and uncounted votes, mortality and turnout. Applying Kerry's 52.9% share of the final 5m to the total 122.3m recorded vote, gives him 64.74m. Adding his 75% share (2.58m) of 3.45m uncounted votes gives him a total of 67.32m votes (53.5%)- matching the Election Calculator.

The pundits to this day fail to understand that:
1) The final state polls and a mathematically impossible Final National Exit poll were matched to a miscounted vote.
2) The final 5 million recorded votes reflected the True vote.
3) The unadjusted, pristine exit polls were close to the True vote.
Kerry True Vote:
Recorded: 64.74m ( 52.9 % of 122.3 m)
Uncounted: 2.58m ( 75 % of 3.45m)
True Vote: 67.32m ( 53.54% of 125.74m)

First 117.3m recorded:
Bush 59.83 51.49%
Kerry 56.37 48.51%
Total 116.21 99.08%
Other 1.07 0.92%
Total 117.28 100.00%
Final 122.3m recorded:
Bush 62.04 50.73%
Kerry 59.03 48.27%
Total 121.07 98.996%
Other 1.23 1.004%
Total 122.30 100.00%

5m Adj. Recorded + Uncounted = True Vote
Kerry 2.65 52.9% 64.74 75% 2.58 67.32 53.54%
Bush 2.21 44.0% 53.80 23% 0.79 54.59 43.42%
Other 0.15 3.1% 3.76 2% 0.07 3.83 3.05%

Total 5.01 100.0% 122.30 100% 3.45 125.74 100.00%
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. Good thing Kerry conceded when he did
If he'd put up a fight, we might have found this out BEFORE Chimpy was re-selected as Decider in Chief. Just THINK what would have happened then.

:banghead:



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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I'll never get over it. (eom)
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. same here. and i'll never forgive either. n/t
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Phoebe Loosinhouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #2
38. Me neither. I think I was actually traumatized.
Why the big rush to concede? I have always attributed it to vanity - that JK couldn't bear the idea of being called "sore loserman". He didn't "have my back" even though I (and most of us) had his. I just have never felt the same about him.

I wonder if late at night, in front of a fire, he doesn't just think "What if I had just waited a little bit and fought for every vote?"

Would the world be a better place? Yes, it would.
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superkia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. He probably got a visit from some mercs, who knows with this gang?
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. Surprise,surprise...


:sarcasm:
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jaksavage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:23 PM
Response to Original message
3. Bonesmen to the end. n/t
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. yeah, bonesman. that was OUR mistake. n/t
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jaksavage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. The game was rigged
It wasn't a mistake.
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. we'll probably never know for sure--but it certainly isn't that hard to believe.
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emcguffie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. I think we WILL know.
I think we will know soon. I think this is the era of secrets being revealed, of truth coming out. But it won't be immediately.

Not too far in the future, all of the truth is going to come out. And some of it is going to surprise a lot of people. But that's just my personal take on things.



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jaksavage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. Those who watch FAUX non news
Will be really surprised.
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. i hope you're right. n/t
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loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #15
32. I think you're right on that, mcguffie. This IS the era of secrets being revealed.
The world is going to have to come up with new structures of economics & government in the future, because what we have now will not work in this world. Too much water has gone under the evolutionary bridge. But I don't think the dark lords are going to go down without a fight, and fighting is what many of us are trying to overcome.

:kick:
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #10
27. methinks this crew never plays a fair game
I think there was some something really odd about the Kerry campaign, I remember the debates Kerry was way out front,
then he got the silliest grin on his face and brought up the Mary Cheeney thing, I thought at the time it was a
foolish thing to do. Almost like a prize fighter taking a fall.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. I liked Kerry.
Posts like this make me weep for the poor guy.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
22. Yes, poor John Kerry. He has to settle for being a United States Senator.
No one suffers more than him from his failure. :nopity:
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Actually, that wasn't what I meant.
But never mind.
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #11
31. need a tissue?
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
8. why would the "final 5 million recorded votes reflect() the True vote"?
Almost half of these "final 5 million" votes were from California alone (using the USA Today California numbers). Why would anyone expect them to match the national totals? They could turn out any which way, depending on all the other places they are from.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. I expect the final 5 million votes were provisional and early votes..
But you may have some alternative info on that.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. it seems plausible to me
Edited on Mon Sep-17-07 04:16 PM by OnTheOtherHand
I certainly haven't waded through the USA Today numbers to try to figure it out in detail. But absentee votes tend to come in late in California. (ETA: and provisionals are counted late too, of course.)

This works both ways. If the "final 5 million" votes happened to match the rest, it wouldn't give any more credence to the official count.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-20-07 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #17
43. It would have to be primarily late absentee votes
I think althecat is right, that the final 5 million were primarily a mix of absentees and provisionals. I'm fairly certain Mystery Pollster mentioned that after the '04 election, when he had a thread that looked at the final popular vote. I remember I had to adjust some of my statewide partisan index numbers when the final numbers changed.

And the substantial majority of the 5 million would be late absentees, since total provisionals in '04 were below 2 million and slightly more than 1.2 million were accepted. So it was roughly a 75/25 split of absentees to provisionals.

I can think of one reason the late absentees, if they were heavily from California, might have skewed toward Kerry. I've read many times that the GOP in California has heavily prioritized permanent absentee voters since Schwarzenegger took office, trying to get those forms out as early as possible and returned by election day. The GOP party chief in California has said it allows them to focus on election day turnout since absentees are already long taken care of. The absentees returned by election day are counted early and already in the count. It's possible a higher percentage of those early counted absentees are GOP votes, simply due to a difference in schedule emphasis.

But that's merely a guess. I don't think it's a stretch to conclude a high percentage of provisional votes are Democratic. In fact, isn't that always TIA's argument, and correct, that lost and excluded and challenged votes are overwhelmingly Democratic? Those challenged votes now show up in provisionals. I don't see how we were depending on late provisionals to put Kerry over the top in Ohio, overcoming about a 125,000 vote deficit, and now we're surprised a sample of 5 million that apparently includes a significant percentage of provisionals tilts unusually Democratic.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-20-07 05:19 AM
Response to Reply #43
44. yeah, that's the logic
As you say, one shouldn't assume that (for instance) provisionals are particularly Democratic in one context, and perfectly representative in the other.

I'm hedging on the details because I've never vetted these "early" data, and I don't know exactly when they are from -- or, in the CA context, which absentees they do or don't include. I'm not confident that CA registrars are consistent in their reporting of absentee votes.

For what it's worth, it looks as if the "late" votes from CA gave Kerry about an 8.6% margin, so they were actually a bit more Republican than the "early" votes from CA, but of course more Democratic than the national average.
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Hydra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
13. Yet more reports that we didn't lose the last two presidential elections
Edited on Mon Sep-17-07 04:13 PM by Hydra
But people still blather on and on about how we need an "electable" candidate and how 3rd party candidates are sinking our races.

Blah. Election fraud is not being addressed properly, so we'll lose again...
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RufusTFirefly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. The "electable" meme is losing one
1. It forces us to choose uninspiring "safe" candidates that few people feel passionate about.
2. The lukewarm response from the electorate toward these uninspiring candidates makes election fraud easier because a loss is more plausible.
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Hydra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Well said, Rufus
and worse, I fear the "electable" candidate will be the wolf in sheep's clothing.
They may allow us to win if they have an infiltrator candidate that works for them.
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
28. Amen, except not only works for them but is them
a wolf in sheeps clothing, a corporate toadie who will allow more ruthless profiteers to plunder our tax dollars.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. How 'bout we just nominate someone with the courage to fight for our votes?
Just think where we'd be right now if Kerry hadn't folded like a wet paper towel in order to preserve his "viability".
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Hydra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Both He and Gore
Were stripped of their victories "for the greater good"

I really wish Dean had been chosen. He doesn't hesitate to let these people have it!
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snappyturtle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Agreed.....look what "for the greater good" cost. We didn't think it
would be good but never thought it would be this bad. Some days when I think of the nefarious acts it becomes incomprehensible.
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Hydra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. I just wish people would be honest
Putting Bush in and keeping him there was NOT for "the greater good." It was for the good of the few, the proud, the slimy.

And another thing...HE DIDN'T WIN!!!! KILL THAT MEME!!!
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Raster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #26
39. KILL IT DEAD!! Every day more rational, logical, intelligent people are reaching the conclusion

that cheney*/bush* were NEVER legally and lawfully elected.

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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. I thought it would be this bad, I still can't get over the iraq
Edited on Mon Sep-17-07 08:55 PM by MissWaverly
thing, like we kept shouting wait, and everything just kept going like a train wreck in slow motion.
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #29
33. i so underestimated these fucking criminals. i remember consoling
myself thinking they seemed harmless enough--stupid and harmless.

oh my god! can you imagine??

(i have always been a SHIT judge of character)
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Hydra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #33
37. They SEEMED stupid
And they wanted us to think so. They've gotten so much mileage out of "incompetence"- things that would never fly if more people understood that they were deliberate acts.
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #33
40. we never had a situation like this before
first we have a president with Alzheimers, then his second in command (former Director of CIA and head of the RNC during Watergate)
becomes prez, then we have an 8 year interlude of peace and prosperity, then we have son of CIA Director running for office against
the VP and the race is contested in the state where the other son of the former CIA Director is Governor, then the presidential
contender who is the son of the ex CIA Director, files a lawsuit saying that he will suffer irrepable harm if the votes are recounted
and then the Supreme Court intervenes and says that a recount cannot be held becuz it would violate the equal protection
clause which was designed to allow minority voters the right to vote. Are you keeping up here.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 05:11 PM
Response to Original message
23. What this tells me is that I shouldn't vote absentee.
Because then my vote won't be counted until later--after the election has been called--right? Is this what this is saying (besides the fact that President Kerry should be in the White House)?
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-17-07 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #23
30. or your vote won't be counted at all but shredded
they have this down to a science, they can tell how you vote by your zip codes with all their micro targeting, so if you
are from a dem zip code then shred it before it can be counted against them. Why would they do this, becuz they want the
government to remain the same as it was during the Eisenhower administration forever. But the country is not the same,
there is now a diverse society, Oprah is the most popular talk show host, Tv and sports are an electic mix of everybody,
this gives them the creepy creeps, the last thing they want is a Washington DC like the rest of the country, so they
are doing everything they can to stop time and keep their buds in power forever.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #30
36. my county votes 70% Republican
So I suppose they'd think my vote was worth saving. We do have our loyal opposition though--30% Dem. My Kerry/Edwards car sticker was pretty lonely out here in the burbs. But it's still on my car!
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #36
41. well, I have respect for the honest, hard-working republicans
it's people like the bugman and the Newts that I can't stand.
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riqster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #23
35. In my county, the alternative to an Absentee ballot was a touch-screen
...Diebold TSx to be precise. Even worse than an absentee ballot.
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Senator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 05:23 AM
Response to Original message
34. K&R&I
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-18-07 10:27 PM
Response to Original message
42. Kerry Vote Share: Initial vs Late Reported Vote (Graph)
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-24-07 04:22 AM
Response to Reply #42
45. corrected link
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