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Electronic vote switching: EIRS analysis shows 12:1 ratio of K/E to B/C

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 10:53 AM
Original message
Electronic vote switching: EIRS analysis shows 12:1 ratio of K/E to B/C
An analysis of the U.S. Electronic Incident Reporting System (EIRS) database (for the 2004 presidential election) shows that incidents of "electronic vote switching" from Kerry to Bush outnumber incidents going in the other directions by a ratio of greater than 12:1.

Here is the report of my analysis, which includes the methods that were used, the results, and a discussion of the potential meanings of the findings:


An Analysis of Electronic Vote Switching Incidents During the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Reported to the Election Incidence Reporting System (EIRS)

by Dale Tavris


Purpose

The purpose of this analysis is to characterize reported incidents of vote switching by electronic voting machines that occurred during the 2004 Presidential election, by type of machine, state, county, and which of the two major party candidates benefited from the incident. It is hoped that this characterization will provide additional clues to what went wrong with the 2004 Presidential election, and that these clues will be helpful in targeting efforts to improve the integrity of future elections in the United States.


Methods

Data source
The source of all data for this project is reports to the Election Incidence Reporting System (EIRS): https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&... developed by the National Election Data Archive Project. All reports to this System involve the U.S. national election of November, 2004. The EIRS database includes 28,734 reported incidents, including 2,115 machine problem incidents. The material for this analysis was obtained by searching these machine problem incidents only in counties that used electronic voting machines, according to a database provided by Voters Unite! (www.VotersUnite.Org ).

Definitions
A report was categorized as a presidential vote switching incident if and only if it met both of the following criteria: 1) The report specifically referred to the presidential vote (unless referring only to third party candidates) OR to one or both of the two major parties (unless referring specifically and only to non-presidential candidates), thus implying reference to the presidential vote; and 2) The report noted that the voting machine made it easier or more difficult to vote for one of the two major candidates OR difficult to vote for president in general. Typically these reports involved a voter attempting to register a vote for one candidate, and then the machine noting that another candidate had been selected. These vote switches involved switches from one to the other major party candidate, from a major party to a 3rd party candidate, or vice versa. Other problems involved such incidents as attempting to vote for a candidate and the vote not registering at all.

There were two exemptions from the above noted criteria: 1) Reports where the only problem noted was that one of the candidates was pre-selected. These were not included in this analysis because these cases likely involved a situation where the previous voted failed to register his/her vote, and the situation could be easily remedied by clearing the screen; and 2) Reports where I found it impossible to decipher what the complaint was referring to.

Having determined that a report met the criteria for vote switching, the next step was to categorize the report into one of three categories, according to which candidate the incident apparently potentially benefited: Kerry, Bush, or neither. The incident was categorized as potentially benefiting Bush if it indicated either that: 1) The voter attempted to vote for Kerry (or Democratic Party), but the machine registered Bush (or Republican Party) or another candidate; 2) The voter attempted to vote for a third party candidate, but the machine registered Bush; or 3) The voters attempts to vote for Kerry (or Democratic Party) were made difficult by any other machine related activity. By interposing the words Bush and Kerry in the above noted criteria, we obtain the criteria for categorizing an incident as apparently potentially benefiting Kerry. And if the report failed to meet either of the above two criteria, then it was categorized as potentially benefiting neither candidate.


Results

Overall categorization of reports
Appendix A is a verbatim listing of all of the reports included or considered for inclusion in this analysis. Those highlighted in blue are those that were determined to apparently potentially favor Bush. Those highlighted in red are those that were determined to apparently potentially favor Kerry. Those highlighted in green are those that were determined to potentially favor neither Bush nor Kerry. And those highlighted in yellow were those that were excluded from this analysis on the basis of the exclusion criteria noted above. The following denotes how many reports were placed in each category:
Apparently potentially favored Bush: 87
Apparently potentially favored Kerry: 7
Potentially favored neither: 52
Excluded from analysis: 8

Categorization of reports by state and county
Table 1 shows the categorization of reports by state and county. Only counties with three or more reports in favor of one of the two candidates are specifically included in this table. Reports from counties with only one or two reports in these categories are included in the state totals, but not specifically listed. The 87 reported incidents that favored Bush, compared to the 7 that favored Kerry represent greater than a 12 to 1 ratio in favor of Bush for the U. S. as a whole.

By far, the greatest excess of incidents favoring Bush occurred in Florida, where there were 47 reports favoring Bush (more than half of the total for the whole country), and only one favoring Kerry. Forty two (42) of these reports (89% of the total for Florida) came from three counties: Broward (23), Palm Beach (11), and Miami-Dade (8).

Other states with a significant excess of incidents favoring Bush included Ohio (8 for Bush vs. 0 for Kerry), Georgia (6 for Bush vs. 0 for Kerry) and New Mexico (8 for Bush vs. 2 for Kerry). All of the incidents favoring Bush from Ohio were from Mahoning County, and all those from New Mexico were from Bernalillo County, whereas those from Georgia occurred in five different counties. Florida accounted for 54% of the incidents favoring Bush, and the other three states accounted for 25%, leaving only 18 incidents (21%) in the 46 remaining states.

Categorization of reports by voting machine vendor
Four voting machine vendors accounted for all but three of the 87 reported incidents that were favorable to Bush. These included Diebold (7 incidents, 8%), Danaher (14 incidents, 16%), Sequoia (19 incidents, 22%), and ESS (44 incidents, 51%).
Although these percents were very different than the distribution of voting machine vendors throughout the United States, all four of these vendors were characterized by a significant excess of incidents favorable to Bush, compared with incidents favorable to Kerry.


Discussion

The most striking finding of this analysis was that there were far more reports of electronic voting machine switches favorable to Bush, compared to incidents favorable to Kerry, with a ratio of greater than 12 to one. This poses the question: What is the meaning of this finding?

As with any study which demonstrates an uneven distribution of a variable, there are three possible alternatives: chance, bias, or causal connection. Lets examine each of these possibilities:

Chance
The likelihood of such an uneven distribution of Bush vs. Kerry favorable incidents is similar to the likelihood of flipping a coin 94 times and coming up with 87 or more heads or tails. The odds against that exceed ten million to one.

Bias
Bias would explain the uneven distribution if in reality the Bush and Kerry favorable incidents occurred with approximately the same frequency, but the Bush favorable incidents were more likely to be reported. This possibility is similar to the hypothesis posed by Warren Mitofsky to explain the discrepancy between his November 2004 Presidential exit poll (which had Kerry winning by 3 %) and the official election results (which had Bush winning by 2.5%). Mitofskys hypothesis is that Bush voters were less likely to participate in the exit poll than Kerry voters. Similarly, the findings of this analysis could be explained if Bush voters were much less likely than Kerry voters to report incidents where an electronic voting machine appeared to make it difficult to vote for their candidate or appeared to switch their vote to the other major party candidate.

Although I dont find it difficult to believe that such a bias could exist, I do find it very difficult to believe that the magnitude of such a bias could be so great as to result in a 12 to one ratio. I cant say its not possible. But it seems to me to be a very unlikely explanation.

Causal connection
The remaining possibility is that there were many voting machines throughout the country with which it was more difficult to vote for Kerry than for Bush, or which switched or attempted to switch votes from Kerry to Bush, and that these machines were concentrated in certain areas of the country: Southeast Florida, Mahoning County, Ohio, Bernalillo County, New Mexico, and Georgia. This could have been accidental. But if it was accidental, then why would the vast majority of these incidents tend to favor one candidate over the other? I cannot think of an explanation for this, but perhaps someone with expertise in the computer programming of voting machines could.

If the tendency of these voting machines to favor Bush was not accidental, that means that someone programmed them to act this way. Depending on the magnitude of this phenomenon, that could have compromised the integrity of the election. This is especially true given the fact that Florida and Ohio were the two states where this problem was reported with the greatest frequency, and the fact that if either if these states had gone for Kerry, he would have won the election.

There has been much speculation and accumulated evidence of compromised integrity of the 2004 Presidential election. Much of this has centered on the fact that the Mitofsky-Edison exit polls not only showed Kerry winning the national vote by 3%, but also showed Kerry winning Ohio by 4.2% (which official results showed him losing by 2.5%) and virtually tied in Florida (where official results showed him losing by 5.0%): http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_20... . In addition to exit poll discrepancy evidence, there has been a good deal of more direct evidence accumulated of compromised election integrity, such as the Rep. John Conyers report by the Democratic staff of the House Judiciary Committee: Preserving Democ- racy: What Went Wrong in Ohio: http://www.truthout.org/docs_05/010605Y.shtml .

Evidence more directly pertinent to this analysis is testimony given before the House Judiciary Committee by an ex- Florida computer programmer, Clint Curtis: http://www.rawstory.com/images/pdfs/CC_Affidavit_120604... . Curtis testified that he was requested in 2000 by Tom Feeney, then Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, to develop a prototype of a voting program that could alter the vote tabulation in an election and be undetectable. He did develop the program, after telling Feeney, however, that he could not make the program so that it would be undetectable if the source program were to be inspected.

What is the magnitude and significance of the problem?
If voting machines used in the 2004 Presidential election were in fact programmed to make it more difficult to vote for Kerry than for Bush, or to switch votes from Kerry to Bush, what significance could that have had to the integrity or outcome of the election? 87 individual incidents in an election where Kerry lost Ohio by over a hundred thousand votes and Florida by a few hundred thousand votes doesnt seem like very much. But what if these 87 incidents represent only the tip of an iceberg the known part of a much larger problem? Lets consider some possibilities that would suggest that a much larger problem exists than these 87 reports:

Perhaps only a minute fraction of problems discovered by voters were reported to EIRS
No one knows what fraction of problems discovered by voters at the polls in November 2004 were reported to the EIRS. It could be that the great majority of voters werent even aware that the system existed. Or if they were aware of it, they may not have felt the necessity of taking the time to report it.

Most voters may not have noticed the problem
A typical report noted that a voter would attempt to register a choice for President (or other candidate), and then prior to finalizing their choice would note that the screen registered a vote for the other candidate. How many voters would have noticed this, and how many voters would have failed to notice it, and therefore cast their vote for the other candidate?

What if vote switching was usually not accompanied by any visual evidence?
If the machines were programmed to switch votes, the person(s) behind this crime would not have wanted the machines to register any visual evidence to that effect, thus enabling the voter to have a chance to correct the problem, or bring it to the attention of election officials, and potentially a much wider audience. But what if it was not possible to program the machines in such a way that they wouldnt occasionally provide this evidence, or what if doing so would have required a level of skill that many of the programmers didnt have? In that case, the great majority of vote switching would have gone unnoticed and uncorrected and therefore unreported. This is speculation on my part, since I do not have the computer expertise to know how feasible such a scenario would be.


Conclusion

The mystery of the 12 to one ratio of reported vote switching incidents that favored Bush compared to those that favored Kerry remains unexplained. Simple statistical tests show that this ratio could not have occurred by chance. The possibility of a massively large reporting bias seems unlikely, although it cannot completely be ruled out. It seems most likely, therefore, that the computers were programmed to make this happen either accidentally or purposely. In either case, we know neither the magnitude of the problem, nor to what extent it might have affected the 2004 Presidential election results.

A better understanding of this problem can be obtained only by inspection of the implicated computers. Since this problem may have affected the election results, and since if that did happen, the problem may be repeated in future elections, it would seem to be of the utmost importance that the implicated voting machines be examined by qualified experts. To my knowledge, that has not yet been done. Hopefully this report could help target the voting machines that need to be examined.

Here is also a link to all of the documents referenced within.
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Boredtodeath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 11:01 AM
Response to Original message
1. Who is Dale Tavris?
Edited on Fri May-20-05 11:04 AM by Boredtodeath
It's a good article, but I'd like some information on who the author is. Anyone know?

BTW, your link doesn't work (you have an extra http:/ / in it).

Here's the repaired link: http://www.picturestable.com/Election04/switch.htm

on edit:
I guess I found him here:
http://www.ohioelection2004.com/ohioproject.html
Contributors to the Ohio Project: Ray Beckerman, Victoria Lovegren, Dale Tavris

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libertypirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. A person with sourcing...
Edited on Fri May-20-05 11:05 AM by libertypirate
Which is infinitely better then any news publication!

This is how the all news should be reported...
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Boredtodeath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Sorry to disagree, but
If it doesn't get in the news, no one but the 20 activists at DU ever hear about it.

Was there a reason to be snippy?
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. That's me
What would you like to know about me?

And thanks for repairing the link.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. The Odds are 1 in 1,783,106,652,071,710,000
Edited on Fri May-20-05 12:38 PM by TruthIsAll
that at least 87 of 94 would switch from Kerry to Bush.
Here are the total probabilities, for n= 0 to n= 94 successes.

Here is the probability for 86 of 88:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The probability of at least 87 successes is the sum:
P(87)+P(88)+....P(94)

n BINOMDIST(n,94,0.5,TRUE)
0 5.04871E-29
1 4.74579E-27
2 2.20679E-25
3 6.76749E-24
4 1.5396E-22
5 2.77129E-21
6 4.11074E-20
7 5.16779E-19
8 5.61997E-18
9 5.3702E-17
10 4.56467E-16
11 3.48575E-15
12 2.41097E-14
13 1.52077E-13
14 8.79873E-13
15 4.69266E-12
16 2.317E-11
17 1.06309E-10
18 4.54768E-10
19 1.81907E-09
20 6.82152E-09
21 2.40377E-08
22 7.97616E-08
23 2.49688E-07
24 7.38662E-07
25 2.06825E-06
26 5.48882E-06
27 1.38237E-05
28 3.30781E-05
29 7.52813E-05
30 0.000163109
31 0.000336742
32 0.000662961
33 0.001245563
34 0.002234687
35 0.003830893
36 0.006278407
37 0.009841828
38 0.014762741
39 0.021197782
40 0.029146951
41 0.038388667
42 0.048442842
43 0.058582041
44 0.067901911
45 0.075446568
46 0.080366997
47 0.082076933
48 0.080366997
49 0.075446568
50 0.067901911
51 0.058582041
52 0.048442842
53 0.038388667
54 0.029146951
55 0.021197782
56 0.014762741
57 0.009841828
58 0.006278407
59 0.003830893
60 0.002234687
61 0.001245563
62 0.000662961
63 0.000336742
64 0.000163109
65 7.52813E-05
66 3.30781E-05
67 1.38237E-05
68 5.48882E-06
69 2.06825E-06
70 7.38662E-07
71 2.49688E-07
72 7.97616E-08
73 2.40377E-08
74 6.82152E-09
75 1.81907E-09
76 4.54768E-10
77 1.06309E-10
78 2.317E-11
79 4.69266E-12
80 8.79873E-13
81 1.52077E-13
82 2.41097E-14
83 3.48575E-15
84 4.56467E-16
85 5.3702E-17
86 5.61997E-18

87 5.16779E-19
88 4.11074E-20
89 2.77129E-21
90 1.5396E-22
91 6.76749E-24
92 2.20679E-25
93 4.74579E-27
94 5.04871E-29

P(87.94)= 5.60819E-19
1 in 1,783,106,652,071,710,000
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Boredtodeath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. Good work
I just asked about the author because we have to be careful to source the documents we use.

We wouldn't want to rely on something like this from a right winger, would we?

I was just trying to be careful about sourcing and trying to understand the purpose for the piece.

Just being cautious, that's all.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Thank you very much
I hope there wasn't anything in my report that sounded right wing. But I like to think that even a right winger could have written the same report -- after all, aren't there some right wingers who want honest elections in this country and who are concerned about the possibility of election fraud?
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LeahD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. I surely hope that would be the case. n/t
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
4. Nominated. Thank you for sharing with DU. (nt)
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EOTE Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
6. Another nomination.
This is of utmost importance. And thanks to Pauldp for hosting the Word files.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. kick.nt
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emlev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 01:30 PM
Response to Original message
9. link doesn't work n/t
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. See response # 1 for corrected link n/t
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LeahD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
12. Thanks and nominated n/t
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Kip Humphrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 04:36 PM
Response to Original message
15. The problem with drawing conclusions, Hart Intercivic eSlates
While vote switching occurred in the 2004 election, a problem with any analysis using a single source like EIRS is there are too many unknowns in the way of drawing significant conclusions.

We do not know how many voters saw, corrected, and remained silent.
We don't know how many voters did not see a switch that actually occurred.
We do not know how many Bush voters knew of EIRS
We don't know how many Kerry voters knew of EIRS

I investigated the reports on Hart Intercivic eSlate vote switching with the following finding: Every county in which eSlates were placed had at least one reported incident of no vote registering for Kerry when "Vote Democratic Slate" was selected.

This may have been a configuration error replicated in each area on at least one machine per county, or it may have been a pre-programmed "feature" of the all Hart Intercivic eSlates. There is no way to tell conclusively from the data which is correct. The fact that this exploit appeared in every county with eSlates and occurred on machines from different manufacturers and machine types (DREs and OptiScans) strongly suggests that centralized GEMS configuration of evoting machines was the source. For example, in Texas this exploit appeared wherever eSlates OR OptiScans were placed.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. I agree that there are lots of unknowns
as stated in the discussion section of my report.

Isn't that a good rationale for demanding access to the machines?

But I don't know much about voting machines. What do you think is the likelihood that if qualified experts were to examine them, that some explanations for all of this could be found?
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Kip Humphrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. Would require a forensics hardware analysis which can take up to 6 months
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. Are you implying that that's a reason why it shouldn't be done? n/t
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. I would think one could ask the pollworkers what they saw.
Have them file affidavits.

After all, if there was switching to Kerry from Bush, wouldn't they have heard about it? Or were the Bush voters "too shy"?
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Lots of them heard about it
Look at the Appendix to see the actual reports. Many of them note such things as that the poll workers were seeing this kind of thing all day long.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. I know, but I meant reports about switching of Bush votes to Kerry.
Apparently, the reports were all of Kerry votes switched to Bush. If someone interviewed the pollworkers, perhaps we could ascertain how frequent an occurrence this really was, and whether or not there were any Bush votes switching to Kerry.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. I found 7 cases of that
Compared to 87 cases of switching from Kerry to Bush.

But that would be a good idea to interview the pollworkers, because that would give us more reliable data than voter reporting.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
16. Another smoking gun......I'm chocking on the gunpowder...
Seriously, what are the chances of these being random failures? Nil, I'd say...and TIA pretty well defines the nil.

Of course, these were only the reported cases. I wonder how many-

(1) Didn't report the errors because they aren't computer literate?
(2) Were afraid to question the results in fear of looking foolish?

The programming could be quite subtle, too. Certainly, nothing that could be duplicated in sequence. Maybe every n voters the program could run the switch routine. Of course, it probably had some kind of program to erase itself, maybe based on the date/time.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. One thing that I neglected to mention in my report
is that many of the reports note something to the effect, "this has been happening all day". So my guess is, because of this, and because of the reasons that you mention, that the reports represent only a tiny fraction of the actual incidents.

If you want to look at the actual reports, click to the Appendix link (However, apparently the link that is labelled Table will take you to the Appendix, and vice versa).
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pauldp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
19. What are the chances of this and...
the unexplained exit poll discrepancy all happening in the same election both favoring the same candidate?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
20. Have to say it: I posted on this 4-5 months ago...
Edited on Fri May-20-05 08:58 PM by TruthIsAll
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pauldp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. The sad news is that only you, TFC and a handful of others
have even done an analysis of this. WTF?

But you know there is a simple explanation. Bush voters are very shy and they don't care if their votes are counted right?
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. Here's another part of the explanation -- eFd (enthusiastic fraud deniers)
You get those rBv's and add a "liberal" dose of eFd's and you've got a research, analysis, and press blackout.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #24
30. Thank you Paul
And thank you for providing the space for my table and appendix.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 07:05 PM
Response to Original message
25. Nice work, Tfc. Thanks.
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 11:18 PM
Response to Original message
31. is there a link to this article on a website somehwere? or a
PDF of the document?

if not, it should be published outside of DU. can someone put me in touch with Dale Tavris?

thanks

gb

------------------------------------
the solar bus
ELECTION JUSTICE CENTER
your home for updated information on the fight for democracy in America
http://election.solarbus.org
------------------------------------
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #31
32. That's me
I have Word files for all this.

You can e-mail me at dale.tavris@verizon.net . I will be home probably late this afternoon. Thanks you.
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EOTE Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #31
33. Here's a link to the file in html format.....
Including links on Paul's website. If you'd like, PM me and I can send it to you in DOC format as well.
http://www.picturestable.com/Election04/updatedvoteswit...
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