DO YOU BELIEVE ALL 37 OF THESE STATEMENTS? CLINTON DOES.

[TruthIsAll]

If you believe ALL of them, then you must also believe what Bill Clinton has already said on national television: "Bush won the election fair and square. He won the late undecided vote".

Bill, you must be kidding, right?


To believe that Bush won the election, Bill, you must also believe:

1. That the exit polls were WRONG...

2. That Zogby's 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning Ohio and Florida and New Mexico and Iowa were WRONG.
He was exactly RIGHT (within 1%) in his final 2000 poll.

3. That Harris's election day polling calling it for Kerry was WRONG.
He was exactly RIGHT (even closer than Zogby) in 2000.

4. That Incumbent Rule I (undecideds break for the challenger) was WRONG.

5. That Incumbent Rule II (an incumbent never exceeds his final polling) was WRONG.

6. That Incumbent Rule III (an incumbent under 50% job approval will most likely lose) was WRONG.

7. That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that prior to the election, that one million votes were stolen from Kerry.
Palast was the ONLY reporter to break the story that 90,000 blacks in Florida were illegally disenfranchised in 2000.

8. That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were ACCURATE in states where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and WRONG (heavily in favor of Bush) where there was NO VOTER VERIFIED PAPER TRAIL.

9. That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.

10. That Bush BEAT 99-1 pre-election polling odds and 10,000,000-1 post-election exit poll odds in winning the election.

11. That Kerry did WORSE than Gore against an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.

12. That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.

13. That voting machines manufactured and programmed by Republicans without a no paper trail and no software publication, and which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election.

14. That people who voted for Bush were not anxious to speak to exit pollsters in the states that Bush had to win (like Florida and Ohio) where the exit polls were off, but wanted to be polled in states that he had sewn up (like Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas) where the exit polls were exactly correct.

15. That Democrats who voted for Kerry were very anxious to be exit-polled, especially in Florida and Ohio. That accounts for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual votes in these two critical states.

16. That women were much more likely to be polled early in the day in Florida and Ohio. That is another reason why the exit polls were wrong in those states. In those states in which the exit polls were correct to within one percent, women did not come out early.

17. That the University of Pennsylvania Professor (trained at MIT) who calculated the probability of Bush gaining votes beyond the exit polling margin of error as ONE out of 250 million, does not have any credibility.

18. That network newscasters who claim that those who consider the possibility of fraud are just wild conspiracy theorists do not have an agenda.

19. That it is just a coincidence that only since the 2000 presidential election have exit polls failed to agree with the actual vote - and that Bush won both disputed elections.

20. That exit polls are not to be trusted in the United States, even though they are used throughout the world to monitor elections for fraud.

21. That even though more votes were cast than there were eligible voters in precincts of the critical states, it is not an important enough an issue to be covered in the media.

22. That the absence of a paper ballot trail for touch screen computers does not encourage fraud, even though they have been proven by hundreds of computer experts to be highly vulnerable to fraudulent attack.

23. That statistical tests which indicate a high probability of fraud are just conspiratorial junk science.

24. That Bush voters were more reluctant than Democrats to speak to exit pollsters due to the fact that it was raining in the East.

25. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.

26. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.

27. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

28. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.

29. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 42 of 50 states - INCLUDING ALL 22 STATES IN THE EASTERN TIME ZONE.
The odds of 42 out of 50 states deviating to Bush: 1 in 1.7 million.

30. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 17 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds: 1 in 300 trillion.

31 That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll by at least 2% in 22 states.
The probability: as close to ZERO as you can get.

32. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability: as close to ZERO as you can get.

33. That Kerry would win the National Exit Poll of 13,047 (1.0% margin of error) (based on Party-ID weighting) by 50.9% to 47.1% and Bush would win with 50.73% of the vote.
The odds: 1 in 2 trillion.

34. That Kerry would win the 21 million new voters by 3-2 over Bush (59%-39%) and still lose.

35. That Kerry would win in every calculation of the votes based on the following weighted National Exit Poll categories:

............ Bush.....Kerry.......Nader

GENDER...... 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
EDUCATION..48.05% 50.21% 1.17%
INCOME...... 48.12% 51.42% 0.95%
RACE......... 47.86% 50.94% 1.00%
AGE........... 48.17% 50.53% 1.00%
PARTY-ID... 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%

IDEOLOGY... 48.15% 49.85% 1.00%
RELIGION.... 47.90% 50.85% 1.18%
MILITARY.... 47.62% 51.20% 1.00%
DECIDED..... 47.95% 51.23% 0.54%
ISSUES...... 47.92% 50.80% 1.28%
REGION...... 47.95% 50.53% 1.00%
VOTED 2000. 47.09% 50.90% 1.19%

AVERAGE..... 47.91% 50.76% 1.02%

36. That 99% of 50,000 reported voting machine anomalies, glitches and other incidents favored Bush, but it was all just a big coincidence.

37. That the USCountVotes.org document, signed by Dr. Freeman and 10 other Mathematics/Statistics Professors and researchers from major universities around the country, which concludes that the exit polls were right and the vote counts were wrong, should be discounted as just another conspiracy theory.

[givemebackmycountry]

1. NO I DON'T BELIEVE IT!!!!

kick

[Fly by night]

5. Thanks TIA for updating this list.

We'll start distributing it tomorrow in the Orange State.

No one but a fool, a knave or a co-conspirator could deny the impossibility of these coincidences. The drip, drip, drip of the evidence is beginning to melt the bonds that block so many from the light given off by the fire that is now burning our Constitution. What do we need to keep this process moving forward? The truth is all.

[darkism]

28. Beautifully worded, Fly by night.

Reading your post gave me chills.

[mod mom]

39. The election was a fraud. After reading Greg Palast's "Best Democracy

Money Can Buy" (post election edition), My faith in the Clinton's and DLC has greatly diminished.

I have also witnessed the intentional suppression of inner city African American voters in Columbus Ohio by the disportionate (in comparison to repug precincts) placement of machines that caused the ridiculous 4 + hour waits to vote.(read: modern day poll tax!) I heard the sworn testimony of the disenfranchised voters who testified at the public hearing held by Freepress, CASE, and others in Ohio. Whatever lame ass explanations the SOS and his co-conspirators have to offer (ie use of a lap top at Gahanna precinct caused the 3,800+ extra votes for bu$h) , I will never surrender the truth: John Kerry won the Ohio elction on Nov 2, and therefore is the legitimate president.

[TruthIsAll]

2. Tight fit.

Notice how close the weighted NEP exit poll median (the middle
value) is to the average (mean).

That means it's a tight fit.

Take it to the bank.
Kerry won it by: 51-48%.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL
13407 Respondents	
RANDOMLY SELECTED
1.0% MARGIN OF ERROR
		

           	Bush   Kerry  Nader
GENDER	      48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
EDUCATION	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
INCOME	      48.12%	51.42%	0.95%
RACE	      47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
AGE	      48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
PARTY ID	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
IDEOLOGY	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
RELIGION	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%
MILITARY	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%
DECIDED       47.95%	51.23%	0.54%
ISSUES	       47.92%	50.80%	1.28%
REGION	       47.95%	50.53%	1.00%
VOTE2000	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%

AVERAGE	      47.91%	50.76%	1.02%
MEDIAN	      47.95%	50.80%	1.00%

THIS IS ALMOST EXACTLY OPPOSITE TO THE ACTUAL VOTE
PERCENTAGES:
Bush:	62,028,194	(50.732%)
Kerry: 59,027,612	(48.277%)

Let's calculate the probability that Bush would go from his
average 47.91% in the National Exit poll to 50.73% in the vote
(a 2.82% deviation), assuming the 1.0% MOE as stated by
Edison-Mitofsky:

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4791,0.01/1.96, TRUE)

************** 1 in 61,311,646 ******************	


The probability that Kerry would got from 50.76% in the poll
to 48.48% (a 2.28% deviation) in the vote is:

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5076,0.4828,0.01/1.96,TRUE)		
************** 1 in 1,708,333	 ********************

[TruthIsAll]

9. Note this coincidence...

The probability that Kerry would go from 50.76% in the exit poll
to 48.48% in the vote (2.28% deviation) is:
= 1-NORMDIST(0.5076,0.4828,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
************** 1 in 1,708,333 ********************

The probability that 42 out of 50 states would deviate from the exit polls in favor of Bush is:
=1-BINOMDIST(41,50,0.5,TRUE)
************** 1 in 1,718,869 ********************

But the are dwarfed by the probability that 17 states would deviate beyond the MOE, all in favor of Bush: 1 in 300 trillion.

[TruthIsAll]

23. Typo. My bad. This should read...

The probability that Kerry would go from 50.76% in the exit poll
to 48.28% in the vote (2.48% deviation) is:

= 1-NORMDIST(0.5076,0.4828,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
************** 1 in 1,708,333 ********************

[TruthIsAll]

26. And note this coincidence #2...

................Bush.......Kerry......Nader
AVERAGE 47.91% 50.76% 1.02%
MEDIAN 47.95% 50.80% 1.00%

The Kerry margin is 2.85%, which is EXACTLY equal to the AVERAGE State Exit Poll margin of error (MOE) of 2.85%, using the formula:
MOE = 1/sqrt(N).

Using the more precise formula,
MOE = 1.96*sqrt(p*(1-p))/sqrt(N),
the average state poll MOE was 2.71%.

Note:
N = exit poll sample size,
p and (1-p) is the two-party exit poll percentage split.

So Bush (p) + Kerry (1-p) = 100%.

[glitch]

3. Sweet and easy to understand. I am no longer tolerant of those in denial.

Not even much-abused former presidents. A lot of us gave Clinton a pass because he was so viciously attacked. That grace period is over now.
All of our leaders have to step up.

[bleever]

4. Rec'd for Greatest. Powerful list of all the nails in the coffin on this

election.

We started at, "What are they hiding?"

We had to add, "How long can they hide it?"

Then we really had to ask, "How long can everyone ignore it?"

BTW...how long CAN everyone ignore it?

Thanks, TIA.

[ailsagirl]

6. Please tell me something...

since we're on the subject of the (so-called) election: Does Dean believe it was rigged?

[understandinglife]

8. Someone should ask him -- On The Record -- after he has been...

....given the opportunity to study all of TIA's, Land Shark's, Freeman's, et al., analysis and all the reports compiled by berniew1, here at DU. One convenient, recent DU compilation was posted by FogerRox (which also contains links to other resources posted by garybeck and NashuaAdvocate):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x311105

He needs to be crystal clear with all of us and with all our fellow citizens.

Peace.


BE THE BU$H OPPOSITION;24/7

[super simian]

19. Please PM me...

... if and when you get the answer to this. It is a very interesting question and even more interesting that the answer is not forthcoming.

[mod mom]

44. The DNC just allocated $ 500,000 toward an election investigation in Ohio.

We will soon find out. It behooved him to remain quiet until after he was elected chairman. I for one, have faith in Howard Dean!

[ailsagirl]

59. Hmmmm... interesting

I'm curious: did you find this out from MSM? I'm doubting they'd carry such a story...

[understandinglife]

7. Recommended. And, I hope it can stay at the top of the list for at least .

...48 hours.



BE THE BU$H OPPOSITION;24/7

[LostinRed]

10. There is a case

I agree that there is a case to be made about voter fraud. However, I don't think it very constructive to discuss the fraud. I think we need to move on and focus on other topics. There is nothing we can do now. The courageous Senators and members of congress that spoke up should be applauded, but there is nothing we can do now. Lets focus our attention and the many other misdeeds that this administration is committing.

[KaliTracy]

12. so we move on and let this happen again? or do we keep up so that

it is less likely to happen again?

where are you most comfortable?

[TruthIsAll]

13. Shh...let's keep it quiet. Right. No sense in getting at the truth.

Let's just all sit and suffocate while we succumb to the global warming.

There have been many like you who have come before us with the same old tired refrain.

Sorry. It won't work.
Obviously, you are not outraged.

You are truly lost in that red state.

[satya]

20. Sorry, in the USA it is not acceptable to sieze power through fraud.

And it is positively intolerable that the thief is bankrupting this country while engaging in endless immoral, illegal wars. And that this regime wants to supplant our constitution with their twisted interpretation of biblical law.

[AuntiBush]

29. You said it, "There is a Case" and it CAN NOT be forgotten, ever!

Sorry, but we can not allow the voting issues lie by the roadside any longer. No, not here in American nor ever again! Yes, our Senators and Representatives are most courageous and have their hands-full, but if you think for one minute that allowing the horrific fraud of the very thing this country was based on, the vote shall go ignored. Well, I think not!

:kick:

[mod mom]

43. Sorry, no can do. We let it happen in 2000, then 2004. If we "move-on"

what will stop the thieves. Yes we need to work toward meaningful reform and also toward 2006, but we MUST focus on the truth!

[Extend a Hand]

11. thank you! next time...

one of the repubs at work calls me a "sore loser" or tells me to "get over it" I'm going to email this to them.

nothing like keeping the peace :)

[Karenca]

14. Recommended for greatest page.Thanks again, TIA....nt

[Karenca]

15. I sent this to my best friend, a VERY Liberal Democrat, and this is what

she emailed back:

<<<<< All of these things said, just why then did the Democrats cave? Why didn't anybody stand up and fight except the bloggers? Why didn't Kerry fight?

One thing to know about Bill Clinton is that he's courting Republicans for Hillary's run. He's trying to make nice so that swing voters can like her more.

Anyway, didn't Kerry become dislikable after he refused to fight? We hate Bush very much, but don't you feel that Kerry let us down?

The whole thing sucks. >>>>>>

[TruthIsAll]

16. Right now, I actually think less of Kerry than Bush...

Bush is caught in his lifetime web of deceit. He's a sociopath, a dry drunk, who has no moral compass. A lost cause. That's not meant as an excuse. But he's just a child in a man's world.

Kerry, however, has no excuse. He, like Clinton, has made a conscious decision to hoodwink and lie to the American people - and both have committed the cardinal sin of treating us like fools.

They have either both sold their souls - or they know there is something coming which will take Bushco down and are just biding their time. Unless that is the case, they are both finished as leaders of whatever remains of the Democratic party.

Howard Dean is our only hope.

[Karenca]

17. Thank you...I feel exactly the same way......nt

[super simian]

18. paint by numbers

yes TIA you have portrayed the big picture of election deception (except for #17... I thought those odds were revised downwards quite a bit at some point, but still alarming).

The concept that Bill is trading favors to promote Hillary is viable, IMHO.

Bill. Are you listening? IT WON'T WORK!.

There is nothing you or anyone else can do to promote a candidate when our votes are counted in secret by GOP operatives. And -- BTW -- Al Gore and John Kerry are already elected non-presidents. Hillary would just have to wait in line for the justice that will never come in the future if there is no courage to fight for the truth right now.
Get a clue.

[KaliTracy]

21. compelling argument. I still find it weird that several people including

Bill, maybe Michael Moore, and I thought there were a few others who used this very phrase, or something quite similar: * won it "fair and square" -- it just struck me as odd.

[trudyco]

42. Jessie Jackson, no? After he wrote an article blasting

Ohio irregularities but before he helped set up the Ohio meetings for people to complain. It was like he was trying to toe the party line in the middle there but couldn't stay on message. It was just too hard to swallow.

trudyco

[KaliTracy]

49. I saw it more like saying what the GOP wanted to hear --- especially

Moore... as "if we don't raise a stink about this stinky election then maybe we can get to the heart of it without getting Spun to Mars by the GOP spindoctors...." probably wishful thinking on my part, though.

[deacon2]

22. Why do you hate America so much :)

the only "arguments" left against this mountain of proof are the usual irrational right wing droolings. Thanks, TIA, for giving me a fresh case of heartburn before bed. And thanks for loving this country enough to care for her. She's in desperate need of TLC from all of us right now. God bless...

[Beam Me Up]

24. Hey! * Stole the election fare and square.

So what the hell are you complaining about? You really believe that people--working class people--should have the RIGHT to elect their REPRESENTATIVES and LEADERS? Give me a fucking break, TIA.

(/sarcasm)

[mattclearing]

25. You forgot the Redskins rule.

The Redskins lost, which has heralded incumbent presidential defeat consistently.

[Old and In the Way]

27. Bill Clinton is an enigma

Is he playing the elder statesman role? Is partisan politics beneath him now? I really don't know. I'd think he'd be kneecapping the Republicans every chace he got, considering the 8 year Inquisition they put him through. I certaily hope it's not something more nefarious and tinfoilish...(same with Kerry).

FYI, your analysis was posted over on the Freeman site tonight:

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1970/P80/

[Timebound]

30. kick! n/t

:kick:

[RoeBear]

31. Who is the highest ranking Democrat

that says it was fraud? Not just some fraud, but complete and massive fraud that changed the out come of the election as you are claiming.

[RoeBear]

34. Someone must have the

answer to my question.

[mod mom]

45. Our heroes: Senator Barbara Boxer and 2005 Man of the Year: Rep John

Conyers, but remember they looked at the proof. I wonder how many others took the time to look at the grassroots investigation.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Al-CIAda]

32. He also wanted us to 'get over it' -fucker

He wantts the UN job and is part of the treason IMO

NAFTA
GATT
Consolidation of media
Corporate whore

[Jokinomx]

33. Great post....

:toast:

I really don't know who to support anymore. With the Democratic leaders not taking a stand... it just makes them seem just as repulsive as the repugs.

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

35. Kick For Truth!

:kick:

[NationalEnquirer]

36. Clinton is one of them, he is not a Progressive. n/t

[dandrhesse]

37. I think Clinton is playing with their heads

The only thing better as retribution that HW having to suck it up and smile while standing next to Clinton would be Babs having to stand next to Hillary and smile. Clinton is no dope, he beating them at their own game.

[i miss america]

38. I hope you're right. The thought has crossed my mind that Clinton

is kissing up to this admin, most likely to rehabilitate his legacy. Or could there be a seat on the SC bench for him in the near future?

[dandrhesse]

50. supreme court, that would be sweet but a long shot at best i think

[mod mom]

46. Remember when we all thought Kerry was working behind the scenes. I put

faith in those willing to speak out, not on false hopes.

[garybeck]

40. evidently KERRY believes it all too

How many times have we heard him say

"Bush just got more votes."

[Fly by night]

48. But Kerry doesn't say, "Bush had more voters supporting him."

I also wish Kerry would get out in front on this election theft issue, though I've read the many DU threads agonizing to figure out Kerry's non-position on the crime of the century.

It's true, Bush just "got" more votes, Senator Kerry, but we fervantly believe that -- in 2004 -- the "votes" and the voters weren't necessarily as linked as they should have been (that is, if we were still distributing political and governmental power based on the "consent of the governed" in the United States).

I believe that Senator Kerry will have many more opportunities to speak about the 2004 election, and as more evidence continues to perculate to the top (even with the corporately corpusculous fat asses of the media sitting heavily on the truth), I look forward to him saying what he feels about what he knows now -- versus what he knew several months ago. The evidence is mounting, the case is developing -- the opportunities to speak are growing. Let's all stay tuned, y'all....

[pauldp]

41. Kick It! Great List! n/t

[mod mom]

47. You can always count on TIA posts, even when your numerically challenged.

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

51. Are you writing a book yet?

if not, when are you starting?

I'm being 100% serious. Just make sure to write a statistics primer for the lay-people (myself included). Your posts are chock-full of truth...

[anaxarchos]

52. This is starting to be very good...

You could argue over whether every point has the same weight or whether 37 points is too many but weaving the voting patterns and election theory arguements into the exit poll and probability analysis is VERY compelling...

[bush_is_wacko]

53. Does Bill Clinton have email or should Hillary have to receive

this in mass from 67,000 DUer's? I have about had it with these two shortchanging their constituents. How can Hilary make such an eloquent speech on Jan. 6, 2005 and then turn around and allow her husband to go off blindly telling everyone he LIKES GWB and thinks he won "fair and square."

I love my hubby and he sometimes makes dumb remarks, but I always go out of my way to make sure to point out the other side of the issue to him so he doesn't continue to look like a fool.

As far as I know my husband hasn't had an affair but that doesn't negate her responsibility to make sure he isn't out there making a fool of himself daily. She is still married to him last time I checked. Although probably only to save her political career...
<<somewhat sarcastically>>
:evilgrin:

[mod mom]

54. I've attempted to contact Hillary in the past, but you must be from New

York. (unless someone else has another way)

[bush_is_wacko]

57. I wrote her and emailed her and have recieved responses from her

by email. I live in Colorado. Try congress.org. I think that's what I used.

[Hell in a Handbasket]

55. i seem to remember lurking, and having you assure us of a 'big con'.

remember that, tsa? Clinton was pulling one over on Bush?

[Hell in a Handbasket]

58. any remarks about the big con, tsa?

remember, it was all an act? Clinton was feigning belief, so that they'd be even MORE shocked when all hell broke loose?

[AnneD]

56. IMHO...

I think that because of our long and relatively stable government and fairly honest elections, it is inconceivable to the average American that 1)our election could really be stolen and 2)democracy is fragile, even in this country. Sure you have had isolate cases here and there of voter fraud, but most Americans just cannot wrap their minds around the possibility. The MSM does little to challenge this, so most assume all is well. But once you start digging, the more you come to believe that the 2000 and 2004 elections were rigged AND stolen. I get laughed at by many and called a sore loser by some but my gut tells me that Gore AND Kerry won, for many of the reasons stated above. I fear that in the end, we may have to do as they did in the Ukraine and surround DC and not let the government officials in until we get a recount or an election with countable paper ballots.

[TruthIsAll]

60. Just wait. The facts of this election are overwhelming and are...

becoming part of the public record.

We have Conyers.
We have Boxer.
We have Hitchens.
We have Freeman et al at uscountvotes.org.

This was not a subtle scam.

[TruthIsAll]

61. #38- You would have to believe that in the Final National Exit Poll...

43% of respondents voted for Bush in 2000 and only 37% for Gore -
and at the same time accept the contradictory Edison/Mitofsky Reluctant Bush Responder theory.