This is a prediction, not a preference, If Clinton is the VP, Obama will win. If not, he will lose.

McCamy Taylor

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Wed Aug-13-08 10:59 PM
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This is a prediction, not a preference, If Clinton is the VP, Obama will win. If not, he will lose.

Like I say in the title of this thread, this is not my preference. I always thought that Hillary was running for president, because Bill wanted her to and that she would be happier staying in the Senate for many years rather than being a lightening rod for right wing attacks as president for 8 years. With Kennedy sick, Clinton has more room to assume a position of power as a Senate Democratic leader who is well known throughout the country.

However, Barack Obama faces a significant handicap. Karl Rove has used the most obvious, criminal election theft twice already, in 2000 and in 2004. The press let him get away with it. The DOJ, under the control of Republican administrations did nothing. Even when there was Democratic control of the Senate from 2001-2, they did nothing. The election theft in Ohio was beyond the statistical margins of error and the entire news media had to be persuaded to suppress their exit polls and 25% of American voters suspected that the election was tainted and a member of the HOuse and Senate filed a challenge and Karl Rove still got away with it . With this history, and with the billions that the oil industry stands to make from four more years of inflated oil prices and from continued war and from the billions which the banking industry stands to lose and then gain from its own criminal practices and then the bailouts which Phil Gramm and John McCain will deliver and with the profits that drug companies and the insurance industry will make by keeping health care the way it is and from the money the telecommunications industry stands to make from unlimited mergers and acquisitions there is a lot of financial incentive to support the theft of another election. That last interest---telecommunications---is the one that will enable the theft, since the news media will declare McCain the winner, fair and square, if the industry bosses think he will help their profits. Never mind that all other sectors of the economy besides those described above will be in the toilet.

The press will begin to create a myth that McCain must win---and so when the election is stolen by a narrow margin it will be "Tough luck, Dems. The election was yours to lose and you lost it, because you_____." And the recriminations will begin.

The only thing that can possibly penetrate the news media wall of inevitable victory which they will build around John McCain is the presence of Hillary Clinton and her husband, the ex president Bill Clinton on the Obama team. The American people love Bill Clinton. To them, he is the ultimate winner, a man who stood up to the bullies in Congress the way that Gary Cooper triumphed in High Noon. The press fears Bill Clinton but it will not be able to ignore him. They will try to create controversy, but if he limits himself to trash talking the Bush economy and praising Obama and his wife and reminding people of the relative prosperity of the 1990s, his message will get through the media filters. Lack of experience will vanish as an issue, as it did for W. when Cheney became his VP and for Reagan when Bush Sr, became his VP.

Essentially, the Dems will be offering three charismatic politicians compared to the Republicans' one war hero. Everyone knows that if Bill Clinton could run again, he would win by a landslide. So, if Bill says "Obama is just like me, and Hillary will make a great VP and I will be there in case they need help" you have got a whole new level of inevitability---and public trust. The press will be torn. McCain will no longer be inevitable. He will no longer be the "safe" or tried and true candidate. Obama/Clinton/Clinton will offer both change and safety ---something old and something new. And in the case of the Democrats, the something old will be an actual ex-president who was more effective than any other in recent memory.

This combo would necessitate a lot of ego suppression from three people who are full of ego. But if played right it would lead to a landslide victory that would completely overwhelm any pathetic efforts by Karl Rove to steal the election by shifting votes.

Since no one seems to expect an Obama/Clinton ticket, I am very pessimistic. No matter how many mistakes John McCain makes, the press covers up for him. Soon, they will have him turning water into wine and curing lepers. Last fall, when I predicted that John McCain would be the GOP nominee because he was the only Republican who had a chance in the general I had no idea how violently the press would support him. All this flinging of panties is making me ill. At this point, he could pick Jeb Bush for a running mate, and the press would not even bat an eye.

People who talk about how perfect the Obama campaign has been seem to be looking at some other campaign than the one I have seen. Sometimes, it seems to me that Axelrod was told "We want Obama to win the primary, but after that, we don't care so much." I can imagine scenarios in which people in Chicago might have reasons to need to keep the Bush administration happy, and one way to do that would be to present a Democratic nominee who comes out from the gate looking good but who makes a poor finish in the race.