Post Your Election Prediction

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Poll question: Post Your Election Prediction

Based on electoral history and results from current state and national polls I think this is going to be among the closest races of the post World War 2 era, right up there with 60, 68, 76, and 00... It is difficult to get a handle on this race...

I think the media took the luster off John Kerry's third debate win by focusing on the Mary Cheney brouhaha... As someone who has no problem with a person's heterosexuality, homosexuality, or bisexuality I don't see what all the fuss was about but as a poltical junkie I can see how the Republicans made political hay out of it... However the toothpaste is out of the tube and we can't put it back in...

IMHO, absent the Cheney brouhaha I believe we would be a point or two up or in a dead heat... As it stands we are a in a dead heat or a point or two down...

I see some of my fellow DUers who I love because they are on the same side as I am because I believe we are locked in a manichean struggle with the irrational right for the heart of this nation predicting a Kerry landslide... I just don't see it or the historical predicate.....My favorite example is 1976....Carter was winning by 33% in the Summer of 76 and went on to win by the skin of his teeth despite the Republican legacy of Watergate, a failed economy, and beating Ford in their series of debates... I digress...

The Electoral College vote usually follows the popular vote but not always as we learned in 2000 but as the pop vote margin increases the likelihood of the Electoral College and the pop vote diverging decreases...

As iconoclasts at this site we eschew conventional wisdom but conventional wisdome is more right than wrong and in this case the conventional wisdom is right....

The winner of two of the following three states will be the next president, Ohio, Pennsylvania,and Florida...

I say the bright New England guy and the friendly fella from North Carolina take Ohio and Pennsylvania... Florida will be the icing of the cake if we can win it...

Here goes by fearless prediction.


John Kerry 49.7 %

George Bush* 48.3%

Ralph Nader .08%

Scattered 1.2%

I think Kerry will have around 280 E C Votes...

What do you think the final pop vote will be

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. who's freeping my fucking poll?

[bryant69]

7. Isn't the whole point to a pll to find out what people think?

I don't understand getting mad because it doesn't go the way you think.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I Am Sorry If I Took Umbrage At Bush Voters....

Maybe I should post my address and invite them to a Bush victory party on November 3rd...

-:)

[wakfs]

2. Sorry but...

I call 'em like I see 'em.

There are simply too many gullible voters in the country right now and I don't see Bush's handlers allowing a Kerry victory. A Kerry victory just ain't gonna happen I'm afraid.

I hope I'm wrong.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. How Can Bush's Handlers Prevent A Kerry Victory?

It's ultimately in the hands of the voters and I see a small margin plurality for Kerry...

[deadmessengers]

10. Simple

Diebold. Lawsuits. Recounts. Protests. BBV. Voting irregularities. Code Red.

All the same things that happened in 2000 are still possible, with the addition of BBV and the threat of terror shutting down the polls. Don't fool yourself - The Bush cartel will try to steal the election any way they can.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. There's Going To Be Monitors And Exit Polls...

I just don't see it and if everybody is so pessimistic why vote....


If I truly believed the elections were rigged I would be surfing the net to find a new country to move to...

[Gildor Inglorion]

17. Don't bother...I've been doing that for months.

They don't want you unless you're independently wealthy or have some extremely rare & valuable qualifications (physician, for example). If you're over 50, just forget about emigrating (again, unless you're quite wealthy).

[michigandem2]

4. i actually think all this whoring for * is good for our side...

it gets people motivated...people might see * in the lead and freak out and say...I gotta get out there and vote...The dems are SO motivated this year...and I think most of us want to make sure it is not close..I think the polls are WRONG..and if I am way off on Nov 3rd...I will admit it...but I really believe this will be a historic event..Bush will lose big...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Bush Got Six Votes -WTF

[Hoosier Democrat]

6. Sorry, I had to post my gut

And I think there are enough Shadow Operations and Dirty Tricks afoot to hand Dumbya Florida and possibly Ohio. The Pukes know they can't win in a fair and open election, so they'll cheat like hell.

Joseph Stalin said it best: "It doesn't matter who votes, it matters who COUNTS the votes."


never before in our nation's history has a presidential election presented such a stark contrast of good versus evil. Unfortunately, it looks like evil is just better at election fraud.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Call Me Naive But I Don't Think You Can Steal An Election

And both parties have put their fingers in the cookie jar so that means lots of people will be watching...

[Hoosier Democrat]

I wouldn't have believed it possible, either....

But what we saw in Florida in 2000 will pale by comparison to what they'll try this year.

Florida is already showing (after one day of voting) serious irregularities. The fact that Florida State Government refused to allow ANY independent observers from the UN to monitor elections there should send up some real red flags.

One of my great-uncles is a WWII vet. Visitng with him recently, he was on a tear against Bush and his cronies. He told me "I fought the Fascists in Italy 60 years ago; I never thought they'd show up here."

[RaulGroom]

8. Kerry by 7

Kerry 52
Bush 45
Nader 2
Other 1

With Bush pulling about 220 electoral votes. Bush's approval rating is anywhere between 44 and 48%, and unlikely to rise in the next two weeks. He'll pull his rating and get clobbered.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Don't See It...

Bush's 48% are sticking with him...

Also, if Kerry did win by 7% he would pick up over 350 EC votes...

[RafterMan]

29. Presidents get their approval rating in the polls

and their reelect number in elections.

I'm not buying 48%.

[ochazuke]

13. I don't think it will be close

Close elections have been ones without incumbents. When incumbents go down, they do so in a big way: Bush I, Carter, Hoover. Truman and Johnson would have been trounced if they had run for reelection, and the reason in both cases was an undeclared war gone bad. Bush should have said the magic words "I will not accept the nomination."

Unless a combination of fundy fever and voter suppression come to his aid, Bush will be thrown out in an electoral landslide.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Hope You're Right...

Except the consensus that Iraq was a mistake isn't as strong as the consensus that Viet Nam and Korea were a mistake when the elections were held...


Throw in the "9-11 changed everything" thinking and we have an unprecedented situation...

[TriMetFan]

14. Kerry will win by 3.5%

What everyone has to think about is the new voters plus Republicans that are going to vote for Kerry that voted Bush in 2000.

[The_Counsel]

18. Kerry 49%, Bush 47%, Nader 1%

Kerry 49%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%

Kerry will take the following states:
CA - CO - CT - DE - DC - FL - HI - IL - IA - ME - MD - MA - MI - MN - NH - NJ - NM - NY - OH - OR - PA - RI - VT - WA - WI
Total Electoral Votes for Kerry: 325

Bush will take the following states:
AL - AK - AZ - AR - GA - ID - IN - KS - KY - LA - MS - MO - MT - NE - NC - ND - OK - SC - SD - TN - TX - UT - VA - WV - WY
Total Electoral Votes for Bush: 213

Funny part about all of this is under this scenario, Kerry could actually lose two of the "big three" battleground states, Ohio and Florida, and STILL be elected. He would be ahead 278-260.

- sigh -

Sometimes I look at that electoral map and wonder why in the hell would Kerry give up on states like Missouri and Arizona. Those states are winnable, IMO...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. You're Leaving Three Percent For Scattered Votes

That would be a record...

[The_Counsel]

25. So I Am... I Doubt 3% Will Be Scattered. Thanks.

I also doubt Nader will even garner 3% by himself, much less get all of the remaining 3%.

Funny part is I really don't see anybody getting much more than 50% of the vote either. That's why I'm so baffled by alll these polls giving Bush 52-54%. Is America CONSCIOUS or what...?

Okay, revised tally:

Kerry 49%
Bush 49%
Nader 1%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I Think You're A Tad Bit Generous To Bush...

He will be in the 48% to 48.5% range...

[The_Counsel]

30. Not Generous to Bush, Just Realistic About Electoral Stupidity...

It's four years later and I STILL can't believe 50 million Americans voted for Bush four years ago. I'm afraid my intelligence will be further insulted on November 2/3.

Again I ask: how is it that with general anti-Bush sentiment; an energized Democratic base; increased voter registration; the news tanking on Bush (Iraq gone bad, Dow gone south, oil prices in the stratosphere, etc.); and at least two obvious Kerry ass-kickings of Bush in the debates, Bush's support is going UP?

Stupid people who vote. That's the only logical conclusion I can reach. Do you know there are people in this country who actually believe that BUSH wants to roll back the tax cuts for people earning $200K/year? Ignorance. Just sheer ignorance...

Kerry should be winning this thing in a fuckin' landslide. The fact that this thing is still close really pisses me off...

[RafterMan]

19. 53-44

The over-under for Bush is 44.

[HFishbine]

20. Pop: Kerry 51.5%, Bush 46.7%..... EV: Kerry 300 - 316

An actual majority for Kerry.

[Joe Turner]

22. Kerry 50%, Bush 46%, Other 4%

The surprise in this election is that the vote for 3rd Parties will not only be substantially higher this time around it will also take more votes from Bush than Kerry.

Other:

Nader 1%

Libertarian Party 2%

Constitution Party 1%

Just my 2 cents.

[Harlan James]

23. Less than 1%

According to my crystal ball: Shrub's huge majorities in the Fundie Belt, plus a much smaller MOV in CA due to the ravings of celluloid action hero Steroid Arnie, will make Kerry's popular vote plurality a razor thin one. Among the Blues, only New York will give Kerry a margin as big as Gore got in 2000. However, on the EV question, Kerry will come in well over 300 with tight wins in Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Watch for the Bushits and their knuckledragging internet storm troops to yowl endlessly about voter fraud and a "stolen election."

And while Kerry will be declared the winner on 11/3, the fight won't really end on 11/2.

[strizi64]

24. Kerry 300+ n/t

[Roland99]

27. Kerry 53...Bush 46...Nader/others 1

[baldguy]

28. Kerry will get the pop vote by 3.5%

That's 3,500,000 votes. EV will be Kerry 355 Bush 183, an effective landslide.

I got this by assuming that the national polls are skewed by at least 2% toward Bush, and adjusting the totals accordingly. Really they're biased about 5%, but we KNOW there will be some GOP shenanigans.

[Ishoutandscream]

31. Kerry by 4

and that's after all of the voter fraud that will be perpetuated by the Bush folks.

[WI_DEM]

32. I think the last weekend the floodgates will open and Kerry

will win by five points. He will win Ohio, NH, Florida, Nevada, W. Va, Colorado--six states which went to Bush in 2000 and retain the Gore states. It will be an electoral landslide.

[Joe Turner]

36. Just saw Kerry's speech in PA and he is hitting all the right buttons

Talking about how folks are losing their health insurance, the rising costs of health insurance, people losing their good paying jobs, Smirk's millionare giveaways, turning a surplus into record deficits etc.

It is a powerful message that is going to reasonate with most Americans.

If Kerry stays on this message and pounds it home till election day he will go over 50% of the popular vote and have more than enough EVs to send Smirk packing back to his Crawford ranch.

[Shadow30]

33. I figure it'll be something like...

Kerry 51%

Bush 48%

Nader 1%

I do think that no matter what Bush will contest,even if there does happen to be a Kerry landslide.

[LibDemAlways]

34. Kerry 49% Chimp 46%

Nader 2% All others 3%

[VOX]

35. EV: Kerry -- 286, * -- 252. Election will be decided in Ohio and/or Fla.

In a close contest, Ohio will probably tip for *. And, in spite of the right wing's concerted efforts, Kerry will take Florida.

My guesses all presuppose that the election will actually take place with a modicum of fairness.