DOW 10,000++

[leftyandproud]

F*CK!

Please folks, don't start that "We should be happy for people...They are seeing nice gains in their 401k's..yadda yadda" Bottom line, this will HELP BUSH!

I took a look at my IRA today and see it sitting at a three year high. I admit, for a moment, I felt a moment of glee, then I remembered who this is REALLY helping, big corporations, Bush's supporters, and the sheep who think he really did anything to boost the economy.

Like it or not, people vote with their pocketbooks and when they see these big gains, they will be happy. Couple this with the bigger than ever tax refund checks people we getting (Thanks in no small part to the politically motivated tactic of reducing tax brackets across the board in JULY, and making the bill retroactive, so the first 7 months of overpaid taxes will be INCLUDED in your tax refund...in addition to the doubled child credit and marriage penalty drop...my GOD...I know most of tax cuts help the rich, but this shit really will help middle America with larger refunds. ALSO, since Dubya dropped the steel tariffs, the price of nearly everything with metal in it will be DROPPING over the next few months...meaning more spending...more demand...more products sold...more corporate revenue...more jobs needed...We need to admit this and prepare for it.

The people are going to be happy.
They like their tax reductions.
They like cheap prices on stuff.
They like their 401k's being up 40% this year.

If the economy keeps this pace, unemployment will likely be down to 5.5% by next November and we better have a damn good argument against Bush's policies. Is there any way we can take credit for helping the economy? We certainly are going to need an argument for this next year.

[LuminousX]

1. A Reagan Recovery

A recovery that doesn't add jobs isn't a recovery at all.

[leftyandproud]

7. jobs are always the LAST thing to improve

in every recovery...job growth follows the economic indicators, and the stock market...We need to be ready and have stronger arguments for progressive policies in the face of this improvement. Unemployment is down to 5.9% from a high of 6.1% I believe...so it may have already started.

[On the Road]

21. Yes, This is True, But

job growth has NOT followed economic growth this time. There's a big difference from previous recessions. Here's one chart showing the difference:


For the first time since the government began collecting employment and economic growth (total spending, known as GDP) data, the economy appears to be growing without adding jobs. Occasionally, job growth has lagged GDP growth by as much as one year, but we are well into our second year of economic recovery without job recovery. Note the historical patterns of job growth (pink boxes) and GDP growth (blue triangles) below. Never before have we had such a separation of GDP and job growth. If history repeats itself, as it usually does, job growth should return soon.

[LuminousX]

23. Wow, awesome chart!

Even if job growth were to turn around, there isn't anything on the horizon that could create the 3+ million jobs needed to turn Bush from the Job Destroyer into a job creator.

[leftyandproud]

28. the bubble popped

I think we all know there was a bubble in tech back in the 90's...With thousands of companies posting zero profit made millions in the market, then went bankrupt as the bubble popped. The nasdaq dropped 59% from its highs in the year 2000, dragging everything else down with it. It continued the drop in 2001, then 9-11 hit causing everything to sell off massively. If all else fails, Bush can blame 9-11 for the job loss, which isn't completely inaccurate. It was a huge shock to the economy...It was the freakin "WORLD TRADE" center for God's sake..probably the most important single location for big business in this country.

[rumguy]

32. why don't you just put on a cheerleading outfit

and go cheer for the economy outside the white house...

Suck on this: the dollar is at an all-time low, that is big. Thanks Bush, and thanks for the huge deficit.

[leftyandproud]

39. ignoring reality

is not smart, and acknowledging what we are going to be facing does not make me a 'cheerleader'.

[rumguy]

44. You selectively define reality according to the rose tinted bush glasses

that you are wearing...

Dollar in the toilet.

Debt out of control.

Junk jobs being created.

I can see through you a mile away.

[cigarstore]

98. Nah, he's not

[cigarstore]

37. Thanks for the reality check

Better to face it and deal with it then depend it isn't there.

[rumguy]

41. how's this for a reality check

Dollar at an all time low.

Debts rising and only getting bigger.

Job market, not improving...and those jobs that are being created suck ass compared to the ones during Clinton.

Yes, my friend the rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer, you just wait and see.

Nice avatar image by the way...

[cigarstore]

60. The sheeple don't follow all that minutia

You know that. They hear the big ones; Unemployment rate, Dow jones, Interest rates, and maybe GDP growth.

I am not arguing with you I'm just saying that's what the sheeple see and pay attention to.

[rumguy]

69. Yes, the people do care

They understand when they don't have benefits cuz all the jobs suck. They understand when the unemployment rate is aweful, WHICH IT STILL IS. The much heralded drop from 6 to 5.9% was much less than was anticipated. Something is awry in this economy and people know it.

[cigarstore]

72. Nah, "SURVIVOR IV" is on tonight

[rumguy]

Yes, the people do care

They understand when they don't have benefits cuz all the jobs suck. They understand when the unemployment rate is aweful, WHICH IT STILL IS. The much heralded drop from 6 to 5.9% was much less than was anticipated. Something is awry in this economy and people know it.

[polpilot]

79. 17,000 manufacturing jobs lost LAST MONTH. Yeah things are great.

Dean '04...

[rumguy]

33. Awesome Chart, should be on the homepage of DU

[okieinpain]

53. all of the companies are moving off shore. I hear that the tech

companys are selling stuff, but I can tell you companies are not hiring tech people. I'm covering two buildings with 100 pcs. my other counterpart is covering 3 buildings with over 300 pc's. three of my senior staff were let go over a year ago, two are working temp (director, and supervisor), and one is still without work (vp).

to me all of this profit is from working the shit out of fewer people and not paying them anything, because there is no where for them to go.

[Sliverofhope]

2. I don't know enough about economics

to be truly wise about this, but I have some doubts about the strength of the recovery. Regardless, we should prepare for it, as we should prepare for every contingency. Excellent point.

[La_Serpiente]

3. hmmmm

Please folks, don't start that "We should be happy for people...They are seeing nice gains in their 401k's..yadda yadda" Bottom line, this will HELP BUSH!

Don't even start.

[Pegleg Thd]

19. I have this 'gut' feeling that

the" Greedy Old Pigs" are giving us inflated figures in order to make the criminals look good. I wonder whhat the NY attorney general thinks of this situation. As I understand it he has had his nose up their asses for the last couple of years. My guess is that before long we will hear of another brokerage caught with their hands raiding the cookie jar. Then watch the bottom drop out and reality set in hard. (we can only hope that I am right )

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Ok here is how you counter this

The job market HAS CONTRACTED under Bush's watch by over two percent

This is the first president to achieve this since HOOVER.

[htuttle]

5. Only 1,700 more points or so

And it will be back where Bush found it when he came into office.

That would make a 0% profit over 4 years -- quite an investment...

[cigarstore]

67. Good point

[rumguy]

6. This is an economy on a sugar high

Remember: the dollar is at an all time low against the Euro. This is a big news story not being reported.

The sudden influx of tax cut money has stimulated the economy, but it's like a sugar high that will burn out quick - meantime the dollar plummets and a massive debt accumulates.

But this may not all be evident by Nov. 2004 - that's why I sometimes think Wes Clark is the best candidate as he can take Bush on directly relative to Iraq and the War on Terror.

[GainesT1958]

8. This latest surge is based upon...

The current "credit-card" spending recovery...not any real, long-term trend in employment--or overall economic--recovery. When unemployment heads up again next year it will again beocme obvious that this so-called "recovery" is a mirage, and Dub won't "profit" from it politically--even though his buddies will profit from it financially. I give Dub ZERO credit for ANY gains my 401 (k) is liable to have, this year or next.

[ozone_man]

46. You can say that again.

Ithink 10K will be a good psychological top to the bear market rally. Time to turn IMO. No recovery at all as you point out. The debt bomb is soon to be triggered.

[tritsofme]

82. I stopped calling this a bear market rally when we topped 9k

nt

[mrgorth]

9. Let me explain this to you

even talking about this only help them. This is war and they started it. The economy is not improving and any recovery is jobless. Repeat it until you believe it.

[Cronus Protagonist]

10. I wish I could get one of them cheap steel loaves of bread

I don't see prices going down, I see them going up. And I don't see credit card interest rates going down, I see them going up. And my rent went up 10% this year so far.

I don't think I'm unusual in not having any stocks and not giving a shit about the price of NYSE poker chips. And we still have to pay for all these wars and occupations. There's no way the economy's going anywhere but down. This is temporary year-end bravado. Wait until the first quarter numbers come out next year...

I forgot to mention, my income went down three years in a row, thanks to bush*.

FUCK BUSH Buttons, Stickers & Magnets

[Yupster]

47. No stocks?

As a voter, you are in th minority if you own no stocks.

From the 2000 exit poll

Do You Own Stocks?
Yes - 70 %
No - 30 %

[Art_from_Ark]

65. That was then... this is now

In case you haven't noticed, a lot has happened in the three years since Election 2000. Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom, and a host of other fiascos have shown that there is no accountability in accounting. Companies can cook the books, lie about their results, and wriggle out on technicalities. Many people who owned stocks in 2000 have since been shaken out, or became disgusted enough to drop out.

As for your survey numbers, since you cite no source, they must be taken with a healthy dose of salt. And if these really are figures from an actual survey, the question that comes next is, What were the survey methods? For example, were the surveys mostly confined to wealthy areas? How many people did not respond? There is no "No answer" response, yet it is unfathomable that everyone who was questioned would answer either "Yes" or "No".

[Yupster]

90. It's the plain old VNS Exit Poll

Here's the link. Geeze.

http://www.udel.edu/poscir/road/course/exitpollsindex.h...

[dpibel]

94. But then again. . .

There's this:

Twenty-two percent of Americans own individual stocks, and 55 percent own either stocks or stock funds — up sharply from 32 percent in 1987 and 48 percent in January 2000.

from http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/marke...

Or this:

Today, 70 percent of American families own homes, compared with 50 percent who own stocks.

from http://www.townhall.com/columnists/larrykudlow/lk200211... (Larry Kudlow not being notable as a left apologist)

Or even this:

The percentage of Americans who owned stocks doubled between 1965 and 1990. Then, between 1990 and 1997, it doubled again. Only one in 10 American adults owned stock a little over three decades ago; today, according to a Peter Hart survey conducted in April for NBC and the Wall Street Journal, 53 percent of all adults now own at least $5,000 in stock.

from http://www.campaignline.com/commentary/index.cfm?id=13

You get the idea. Odd that nobody but VNS seems to have that 70% figure. Could be one of those things where people tell pollsters what they'd like to be true, as opposed to what is true.

Also, note the qualifier in that last one: "at least $5,000." Now, I know that for real people, $5K is serious, and I'm sure that each and every one of those people feels terribly concerned about every little bump in the Dow. But the fact is, for the vast majority of Americans, the state of the Dow makes not one whit of difference. If you've got $5K in the market, and you drop half the value, you've still only lost $2500. No matter how sad that may be, it's not the difference between a comfortable retirement or penury. It doesn't mean your kids can't go to college.

I don't deny that one of the great media themes is "we're all in the market now." I don't deny that it's a powerful, simple thing to throw at folks.

Doesn't make it true, but that's not very important these days, is it?

[Yupster]

95. Perhaps,

people who own stocks are more likely to vote than people who don't.

I'd be surprised if that wasn't true, wouldn't you?

[karabekian]

11. umm the economy is going to come back

and jobs will most likely follow by next Nov. We should assume this and adjust our campaign strategy to reflect this. It is a sad day when I see people hoping for the economy to go south and hoping for Iraq to turn worse for political reasons. There is plenty of other issues that matter in campaigns and I am worried that if we bank on the economy and Iraq failing, we will have nothing if they do not...
Just a thought.

And 10000 is just a number. Although it has psychological importance, it isn't all that important.

[mhr]

25. Karabekkian, You Are Fooling Yourself With That Prediction

Have been unemployed for 40 Months Now.

Two college degrees.

Besides my troubles - personal bankruptcies at all time high, mortgage foreclosures at all time high, executive insider selling at all time high, national debt at all time high, mortgage refi. starting to crash, seasonal hiring down 27% from last year, long-term unemplopyed growing, high-tech layoffs continue, good American jobs being sent to India daily ....

I guess you don't read or make the mistake that the equities market reflects the economy.

[karabekian]

38. am I

what kind of position will our canidate and campaign strategy be in if I am right?

[Lisa0825]

12. How 'bout this for a conflict of interest?

I am employment counselor at a state workforce office, but I worry about employment increasing because I want Bush out so badly!!!

There is a newspaper article that was posted in our breakroom over a year ago, and it had charts and stuff, and said, "Employment picture bright for 2003," or something to that effect. (Gee, mister.... that was an accurate prediction. Can I get you to pick me some lotto numbers?).

I hate to see peope hurting, but it's hard for me to wish for more jobs.

[piece sine]

20. hard to believe...

you actual had the nerve -- or gall -- to just post what you did. And what do you say to your clients? Stay unemployed until after the election?! Man, am I ever THRILLED someone like you is NOT my career counselor. Aren't you even slightly ashamed of yourself?!

[cigarstore]

42. Right on!

[Lisa0825]

58. oh, I am so proud... I got my first flame!:-)

Look, you're overreacting... the bottom line is I have mixed feelings. I am good at my job, and am thrilled for every person I place, but when I look at the stats, I sometimes get worried about the possibility of an upswing in jobs helping Bush. and I have heard lots of people mention such concerns about the economy. The difference is that I work in this industry. Did I say I want things to get worse? No. Did I say I don't help people? No.

So, thanks for giving me my first flame! I'm gonna save it in my memory box!

[NavajoRug]

75. I commend you for being honest . . .

And let's be blunt here -- this is exactly how Republicans were feeling back in the mid to late 1990s.

[tritsofme]

83. No because pubs controlled Congress in mid to late 90's,

they had a stake in the economy, we on the other hand, control no branch of the federal government. This is Bush's to loose and his alone.

[INTELBYTES]

13. What a load of crap!

Can't we be happy when things do go right? We have to fight the right on what we stand for and not hope for armageddon to make our point. Is this what our party has come too? It's just like the post the right wing talking heads gleaned from this board about one of us DUers hoping there will be more dead U.S. soldiers. If we can't win this election on ideology then screw it. I'll just become a couch potato for the rest of my life!

[La_Serpiente]

15. I'm with you

[NavajoRug]

71. I'm with you on this one . . .

I didn't see the post that you are referring to about casualties in Iraq, but that kind of shit has no place here.

[Fixated]

14. I'm glad it's doing well

Maybe some people are all fucking comfy, but my family isn't doing well, and we need any help we can get. If Bush is in office 4 more years and the economy does well, you know what? Things could be worse.

[Killarney]

16. That is good news, but...

... it doesn't mean much to the average American. More Americans than ever are unemployed or under-employed. They just announced today that unemployment just unexpectedly rose.

When a rightie tells you about the Dow, just come back at him/her with the jobless recovery. The DOW doesn't mean anything to someone that's unemployed or someone that makes half of what they used to make before they were laid off and had to switch careers.

[Cloud]

17. So What?

It hit 10,000 under Clinton. Ahhh, finally back to square one after almost 4 years.

[mhr]

18. Remember 80,000 Per Week Will Start Losing Their Unemployment

Hi All,

Just in time for the Holiday Cheer, Bush's economy shares the wealth once again.

Beginning December 21st, 80,000 people a week will lose their unemployment benefits.

The attached article tells the tale.

Enjoy
------
http://gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031...

December 10. 2003 6:01AM
Selling the illusion

It seems to be very important for the Bush adminstration to sell the notion that the U.S. economy is on the rebound.

Members of the U.S. House passed out an $820 billion "catchall" spending bill and then headed home for the holidays. Citizens Against Government Waste said the bill "set a new record for pork spending."

One thing the bill did not do, however, is hold out the hope for a decent holiday to tens of thousands of out-of-work Americans who will begin losing their unemployment benefits just before Christmas.

It is estimated that as many as 80,000 people a week will see their benefits expire beginning Dec. 21. In past years, Congress has granted extension of those benefits in order to help the unemployed and their families get through very tough times.

Snip ......

[LuminousX]

22. Home foreclosures are up

Credit card debt is up

Bush will have to put on over 3 million jobs in a year just to break even.

This is a Reagan Recovery... where businesses see an improvement in their profits but the average American's life still sucks. Only this time, due to poor laws in Congress, we won't even have the innovation of new technology to help lift the economy. Meanwhile, Bush is going to the moon.

[karabekian]

24. no one else

sees the danger of basing our election arguments on the economy and Iraq war alone? It is possible the economy will be roaring by next Nov., that unemloyment will fall, and that Iraq will stabilize. Where will we be if that happens and the focus of our critism (in the eyes of the average voter) is shot right out from under our feet. Not in a very good position imo.

I also want to throw out there that the 3 million job loss fails to account for self employed individuals. It only is the pay roll for government and big business. I have been fooling around at : http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
and when I ran the numbers including all types of employment and net job loss/gains there was actually a net job gain of 168,000 from when bush took office. Horrible gain in employment historically but there was not a net loss of 3 million jobs. It is kind of hard to find the information but you can make tables and get the graphs of this data in the upper right hand part of the screen.

My main point is not defending Bush. In fact, I think the economy is largely independent of who is president even though it is the main reason for people voting. If its up you get get more votes, down you get less. Its up right now and will likely be up more by next Nov. So I guess my point is that we need to campaign on other things than failure in Iraq and the bad economy.

[Yupster]

50. Agree karab

The Democratic candidate should say vote for me because I have a better plan for our country.

If I am elected, I am going to try my best to get the following two positive changes made.....

[PaDUer]

64. You'll find this interesting..

I found this post on the freepville site, anyway, it was a discussion about Dean...here's what the R's are hoping on..

"Howard Dean is not the biggest challenge to Bush. He's a pimple on a Donkey's a$$ (if I might be so redundant).

Now if the economic recovery tanks then the pimple on the Donkey's backside will get bigger, but Dean is still out of the game IMO. If our troops in Iraq suffer massive casualties, Dean will benefit, but not enough to defeat Bush.

It will take the economy tanking + the downside of Iraq + revelations that Dubya had intimate relations with a representative of Big Oil that could get Dean elected.

Possible? Sure. Probable? Nope."

[cigarstore]

66. They are right about Howard Brush Dean

[leftyandproud]

76. thank you

[Intelsucks]

26. We might have to let the "faltering economy" attack go.

...especially if things continue to get better. It's going to be hard to convince the average Joe that Bush's disasterous economic policies are destroying the nation when it is no longer reflected by the stock market. Hey, shrub got lucky. Where could it go but up, after it tanked so badly?

I do agree with you about the credit card debt though... Last I heard, the nation was about $600 billion in the hole on credit cards, with the average family owing $7000 - $8000.

[piece sine]

103. yeah...

maybe all that debt will break the backs of millions of families and crush the American economy from that direction. It will be a new manifestation of the Great Depression -- maybe the Great CREDIT CARD CRASH!!! The mass-suffering will be acute, and these angry people, crushed by permanent, lifelong debt will rush to the polls in November to vote out Bush!

I'm kinda hoping the crash-thing doesn't happen, but I'm cool about them voting-out Bush.

[KFC]

27. Nice to see the gains

I have to laugh when people complain about good news. Or deny that it is good news. It really is pretty pathetic.

Help Bush or not, we have no control over it at this point. Economic forces have been set in motion and we will see how it plays out. As always, I'm hoping for the best.

[KoKo]

29. You must realize though that other folks 401-K's aren't what they were

during the late 90's and that many of those folks lost their jobs and can't contribute anymore, or had to cash in with penalities as they were downsized, or merged out. The folks who don't have 401-K's have seen their working ours increase and their overtime benefits are in danger.
The others who had to depend on CD (certificates of deposit) or Money Market Funds to safeguard for retirement or kids education have seen their money dwindle because of 0-1% interest, and the people who have been down sized aren't going to be re-hired until 2005 according to the latest reports from the Fed and Labor Dept.

So, the rosy scenario will affect some, but the devastation out there will affect more. And the Middle Class is what's being downsized.

There's more about this if you look at the shrinking dollar, loss of a manufacturing base, and limited consumer ability to spend because of Huge Debt. The Mortgage Refinancing is dwindling, and Real Estate Boom has probably reached it's limit. The Recovery you think will happen will increase inflation and that will cause Mortgage Rates and those Homeequity Loans to take more money out of people pockets.

It isn't as rosy as it may feel to you. But, I'm glad you are okay and any other DU'ers who feel things are good...I'm glad it's good for them, but guard your wallet. 's

[Droopy]

30. Regarding the steel tariffs

The loss of those won't create more jobs for people in the US. That's what the tariffs were there for- to keep prices from falling too much and to keep from losing business to foreign mills. The loss of those tariffs mean rising unemployment and the loss of business for US companies.

[leftyandproud]

36. don't think so..

seems to me the benefit from lower price will more than exceed any lost jobs...lower prices = more demand for the products, which is good for workers, and more money in consumers' pockets, which is good for them.

[rumguy]

45. you look good in your rose tinted bush glasses

they fit you quite well.

What the hell do you know? You can't predict anything. We'll just wait and see. Those tarriffs will have an impact on the economy in certain key industries and states.

[karabekian]

43. but

the repeal of steel tarrifs helps manufacturing jobs that use steel as well.

[hedda_foil]

31. This time the stock market does not reflect anything but $ devaluatio

The dollar has lost what? 30-35% against the Euro and about the same against gold. The stock market is an investment that competes internationally with all other forms of investment. That 10,000++ is worth 30+% less in real terms than it was a year ago. Which would put the market (against gold and the euro) at between 6500 and 7000 I believe. Can anyone correct me if I'm wrong.

[amazona]

40. i think you must be right

Individual stocks are not doing well at all. Ford was 25 under Clinton. Now on a good day it's 13 and change. Disney was up to 40- now it's 22.

Similar situation with the others I just checked.

Clinton's 10,000 DOW is not the same as this 10,000 DOW, and people who actually have owned stock for more than 10 minutes can see this.

[Hawkeye-X]

63. I can see this

I own 40 shares of COVD. Covad Communications -- top DSL provider and they're still struggling (and OTCBB)

Hawkeye-X

[tritsofme]

84. All that tells me that there is still a lot of room to go up

next year and beyond, and that many of these basic stocks are still undervalued, even though they are way up from the year, and their 52wk lows.

[Yupster]

92. The Dow only mearures 30 stocks

and the stocks change from time to time. S+P 500 is a better measure of the market.

[rumguy]

55. excellent point!

The dollar is in the toilet thanks to Bush.

[NavajoRug]

73. You have the right idea, but . . .

. . . it's actually the other way around. The U.S. stock market does BETTER with a strengthening dollar than with a weakening one -- that's why the market was at record levels when the U.S. dollar was trading at record levels against other currencies.

The rationale behind it is this: If I'm a European investor and the dollar is trading at $1 = 1 euro, and I think the U.S. dollar is going to get stronger, I would invest my money in the U.S. even if I didn't expect the stock market to grow very much (or not at all). If I buy in when the market is at 10,000 and the U.S. dollar rises in strength so that $1 = 1.20 euro, then I've made a 20% gain even if the stock market stays at 10,000.

I honestly have no idea why the market would be at this level when the dollar is so weak, unless a lot of foreign investors are guessing that the dollar is going to rise soon.

[Yupster]

91. But why would the average American

care what the exchange rate is between the dollar and the Euro? If he goes on a vacation, he'll be more likely to stay in the USA because Europe will be so expensive, but really how many Americans are thinking of vacationing in Europe anyway?

Or buying French wine for that matter. The quickest result to see of the weak dollar will be lots more European tourists in the USA and more American products sold in Europe.

[amazona]

34. it don't compute

The DOW is made up of individual stocks. Supposedly. But when I look at my stocks, they are way way way way down over what they were back in the day. I am talking basic stocks like Ford and Home Depot. Even Johnson and Johnson.

Something smells awfully fishy to me.

[Yupster]

51. That's because

the high in the DOW was 11,400 in January of 2000. So DOW 10,000 is cool, but it's still well below the high of early 2000.

I don't have the DOW numbers available, but here are the S+P 500 numbers.

1993 10.06
1994 1.31
1995 37.53
1996 22.95
1997 33.35
1998 28.60
1999 21.03
2000 < 9.10>
2001 <11.88>
2002 <22.09>

[NavajoRug]

74. That's an excellent summary there . . .

And it shows just how relative the stock market performance really is. By the end of 2002, the S&P500 had come off three straight dismal years, but it wasn't as if the market returned to 1940 levels. It actually just returned to a point that it had been somewhere back in 1996 or 1997 -- hardly the end of the world.

[Liberal Veteran]

35. So we should party like it's 1999?

Since the Dow has finally reached the level it acheived almost 5 years ago?

[West Coast Democrat]

48. The Market Has Gone Up and Down

It will continue to go up and down. Will it stay above 10,000 for long? Who knows? But most people don't vote based on the stock market. That's not tangible enough.

[rumguy]

49. The "advice" lefty and proud gives is poisonous!

How can we take credit for what's happening?

What a joke.

That would play right into Rove's greasy little hands. We need to emphasize the weakening dollar, the massive debt, the crappy jobs being created, the rich getting richer, and the enronization of our commerce and treasury departments.

This is an economy on a sugar high.

And the last job statistics, the much heralded drop to 5.9% unemployment was much less than was anticipated...

[Imajika]

61. Emphasize the weakening dollar?

More Americans would probably find this a benefit than a detriment.

Unless your someone whom travel overseas (which I am so I am pissed about the crumbling dollar for my own personal reasons) and is used to the strong dollar policies of the past, the current state of the US greenback has few if any near term negative impacts on most Americans.

Infact, I'd venture to guess that more Americans like the weakening dollar than are worried about it. Lots of US business's and business men and women love it. The majority of Americans probably just don't care one tiny little bit.

"the massive debt"

Hate to say it, but I don't think the deficit will be a good campaign issue. Perot got some traction with it, but for the most part the deficit as a political campaign issue is a loser.

"the crappy jobs being created, the rich getting richer"

This sounds exactly like what Walter Mondale ran on in 83'-84' and it was an utter failure.

"This is an economy on a sugar high."

I don't even buy that. Economies run in cycles. Tax cuts can spur an economy, but it would have improved anyway. GOP tax cuts are really mostly about starving the government to force deficit spending as a means of cutting social services. Saying that, the economy is improving and to deny it just sounds a bit silly.


"And the last job statistics, the much heralded drop to 5.9% unemployment was much less than was anticipated"

The last job statistics are not the final ones. I agree that Bush is vulnerable here, but for it to be a powerful Democratic issue - unemployment would have to be higher and getting worse, instead it looks like it will be fair to moderately bad by historic standards and improving if only modestly.

The Democratic nominee should focus on the fundamental direction the nation should go. Hit on 4 or 5 big themes and stick to em'. Talk repeatedly about how WONDERFUL America already is and how much better it could even be if the public gives the Democratic Party a chance. The message needs to optimisitic and hopeful. Trying to claim the economy isn't improving is just ridiculous and will do absolutely nothing to help get a Democrat into the White House.

Imajika

[rumguy]

68. Bullcrap

We must emphasize the areas of the economy that ARE NOT improving or are getting worse. The national debt is something that worries everyone, even people over in freepville. People remember the SURPLUSES under Clinton.

And the QUALITY of the jobs being created is an important thing. It's amazing how many people in this country, hard working people, DON'T HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE, cuz their jobs offer no benefits. This number IS GROWING cuz the quality of jobs is going down.

So suck on that.

[Imajika]

80. rumguy

"So suck on that"

Yes, that is very constructive. Do you actually convince anyone of anything with stupid comments like that?

"The national debt is something that worries everyone, even people over in freepville."

Is that right? Perhaps it worries them, but it sure doesn't usually affect how they vote. Mondale and Dukakis ran on the deficit and it got them nowhere. There are a lot of issues that people say they "worry" about, but what matters in winning general elections are finding the issues that actually cause people to vote one way or the other.

"We must emphasize the areas of the economy that ARE NOT improving or are getting worse."

That is wonderful, every opposition party throughout American history does that. Not exactly a wonderful new suggestion. I am with you on hightlighting where the economy is not doing well and offering constructive solutions that attract votes, but to deny that the economy is turning around is just plain foolish.

Rather than try to pick at what parts of the economy are not doing well, which is always a tough sell when the overall economy is improving - we would be better off chosing a few big exciting issues and pounding them home.

"And the QUALITY of the jobs being created is an important thing."

This was also an issue in the eighties and it just flat didn't work for the Democratic Party, and I suspect it will work no better now. If the overall economy is improving, and the majority of people feel reasonably secure - we just won't get anywhere complaining about the QUALITY of the new jobs.

"It's amazing how many people in this country, hard working people, DON'T HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE, cuz their jobs offer no benefits."

Healthcare is a HUGE issue which the Democratic Party has no excuse for not having capitalized on. In my opinion, our candidate(s) should talk about broad themes here and not get mired in details. The talking points should focus on the big issue and not the messy specifics - that we can save for when a Democrat is safely in the White House.

Imajika

[rumguy]

88. You miss my point

I don't want our candidates to go around braying about the weak dollar and the deficits. But those issues have to be tied into the overall themes - like fiscal sanity, and healthcare! Yes we have to paint a big picture but we do that using some of the selected details.

And yes, health care is a HUGE issue. That is one piece of American life that is getting worse and worse for the average person. And what can the gov. do to address it when it is wracked to the heavens in debt? Nothing. Thanks Bush.

[Yupster]

93. I'd sure rather if the Democratic candidate

ran on a positive message.

If the news is how the economy is up strongly for the second year in a row, and the Democtratic message is "yeah but," man that sounds bleak to me.

I'd rather a positive message.

Elect me and I will do my best to accomplish the following two positive things. ........

[rumguy]

96. Yes a positive message, but it must be a positive message based

on improving lives...so you must identify areas that need improvement...like health insurance, etc...and you can't do those things without a fiscally sane government...

[okieinpain]

52. I would rather the economy do okay, and have to live with

4 more years of bush. then to be out of work and hope that a dem can maybe straighten it out in 2 - 3 years. but to me there is plenty that bush can be beaten over the head with.

[INTELBYTES]

54. I agree!

nt

[reknewcomer]

56. Exactly

Any other choice will get *us* beaten over the head. Health, security and comfort first then we can deal with the politics and power.

[juajen]

62. Please correct me, if I am wrong

I admit to not knowing a lot about economics; but, since so many of our jobs are being sent overseas, doesn't the increased profit from lower wages, but higher productivity from slave labor show up in our GDP? I would think it would also be reflected in the stock market. Of course the corporations are doing well; they are paying cheap wages with no benefits to make even larger profits.

If this is added in as productivity from American companies, even though their workers are overseas, this produces a completely false evaluation of our economy. People might make a little more on their stocks, but their children will still be either unemployed or underemployed, even with graduate degrees, and probably still living at home with Mom and Dad, costing them even more money to offset that extra they might be making in the stockmarket, because those grown-up children are just as expensive or even more so than younger kids. Most have car payments, cellphone bills, clothing bills and going-out bills, not to mention that they cannot be covered under your health policies from your employment, are used to eating well, etc.

If you honestly believe in the platforms of democrats everywhere, you cannot possibly believe in trickle-down-economics, depressed wages, seniors dying from lack of medicines and food, the poor and poverty stricken suffering even more and no jobs. Come on now, dems, get a grip. You are buying into the pugs stupid economics and policies.

How many times during a dem administration have individual states and cities gone out on their own to denounce the policies of an administration, like the Patriot Act and the stupid prohibition on Canadian drugs.

Don't forget, we also have people on this board with a different agenda. Sowing disquiet and dissension is a "necessary" with some of these people.

DON'T BUY IT!!!!!!!

[reknewcomer]

81. It's that giant sucking sound

Guess who signed NAFTA into law...Give up yet?

[dweller]

104. And who would repeal NAFTA?

here's a hint:http://www.house.gov/kucinich/issues/trade.htm

dp

[qanda]

57. I'm glad corporations are doing well under Bush*

And I'm glad that most people don't even realize just how screwed we really are. I actually hope that people get exactly what they deserve-- another four years of this disaster in the White House.

[LoneStarLiberal]

59. 10,000, 20,000, 30,000...

These numbers have everything to do with investor psychology and very little to do with the shaky reality of the stock market.

Why is our current market exceptional? Because unlike 1929, unlike Reagan, unlike any other time in our financial history, we're all floating on a nearly-bottomless sea of debt that severly limits not only the policy makers' range of options but that also will greatly magnify the damage that even the slightest teeter in market benchmarks (for example rising rates) will do to all of us.

The disconnects between financial reality and financial Never-Never Land are almost so great as to be beyond the pale of description.

[NavajoRug]

70. I've got one major problem with your post . . .

"I took a look at my IRA today and see it sitting at a three year high. I admit, for a moment, I felt a moment of glee, then I remembered who this is REALLY helping, big corporations, Bush's supporters, and the sheep who think he really did anything to boost the economy."

Regardless of who this is "REALLY" helping, it looks like it is helping you, too. And me, and a whole lot of other people here on this board.

Believe me -- it pains me to admit this, but there actually WAS one crucial part of the "Bush tax cut" that has helped here: the reduction in tax rates on dividends from the recipient's income tax rate to the lower capital gains tax rate.

This should come as no surprise to folks from the Clinton economic team, because this is simply a variation of what drove the stock market to record levels in the late 1990s.

[classics]

77. Pump and Dump

The stock bubble is just being inflated again.

Another round of easy takes. The suckers have deep pockets.

[OneTwentyoNine]

78. 10,000? so what,thats how many jobs are still missing here....

Well...actually about 11,000 high paying aviation jobs have gone in the dumpster under Chimpboys watch,another 300 are going in January. Maybe the Dow going up helps the fucking fat cats that run big corporations that have millions of shares but it doesn't mean crap to a person who might own a 100 or so and is STILL out of a job.

I've said it over and over,this economy BS is getting to be much bigger news than Iraq. These numbers are being pimped on daily basis by the media whores and most are total bullshit.

David

[Ksec]

85. In Bush' economy the Corporations do great, its the middle class that suff

suffers. Falling wages mean corporations are making more money for stockholders. Less jobs mean more profit for shareholders. If you're a shareholder great. If your a typical Middle class working stiff you're in serious trouble. Homes are being taken in foreclosures at record rates. Unemployment is terrible. Jobs are going to Mexico and China. All good for the Profits but a disease on the American middle class. Third world status is just around the corner. Its already here in the Rust Belt.

[Broderick]

86. WRONG wrong wrong - everyone is WRONG

The message should be that this is good news, fine, BUT we can do much better.

Everything seems so negative. I say go out there and stump a positive message and say why we can do better.

Rather than say job market is bad, say that we need a recovery that will include job growth.

Rather than say the market is just a bubble, say we would like to get the Dow to where it should go -12000

Rather than say consumer debt is at an all time high, say we want to help people lower their debt load...

ETC. Etc.

Anyway, just being Mr. Positive.

Somehow a positive message works in my little world.

This is all just my humble opinion by the way.

[Selwynn]

87. We SHOULD be happy for people

Jesus Christ with a handbag people, I am not going to be pissed off if the economy really does improve! Not when I have REAL PEOPLE I LOVE AND CARE ABOUT who are DIRECTLY effected by the bad economy. Some of those people are starting to find jobs again, and I celebrate that with them!

I don't play politics with peoples fucking lives. I hope the economy truly does improve and I hope it starts TOMORROW. If we democrats are such a bunch of pathetic losers that we can't win on policy and on exposing Bush's lies and failures, then we deserve to lose. And even if we don't I despise this attitude that takes pleasure in the prolonged suffering of people for political gain.

[cigarstore]

97. Hey!

We need to win. A little short term pain for long term gain is okay with me. And the public will get over it.

[Robin Hood]

89. Like all of that bloated military spending had nothing to do with it.

9/11 is the best thing that happened to Bush's economy, because he got whatever he has wanted for spening. I think the tax money is laready spent. The militry moeny is a gift that keeps on giving. Life is great if you Bechtel, halliburton or a host of other parasite companies to the big military contractors.

Somehow military spending always gets overlooked in the equation. And military spending is a financial black hole where moeny flows in and little product flows out. Of course GPS, the internet and humvees are all products of military spending but how much have you already paid for that handheld GPS before you spend 130.00$ bucks on it?

[opihimoimoi]

99. The Friggen DOW is supposed to be about 15,000 if the Shrub

was defeated by counting all of the votes. He is turning out to be Americas nightmare, a lingering one to boot.

[Romberry]

100. It's the Great Bubble Part Two, Charlie Brown!

Listen, there is nothing but air in those numbers. Bush's DOW has been here before. Right now we are headed for a perfect storm. Huge federal deficits, a falling dollar, unsustainably low interest rates and American families up to their eye teeth in debt.

What happens to home and auto sales when rates inch up? What happens to the stock market? Wanna know why gold keeps flirting around with 400 dollars an ounce and the rates on long bonds have so diverged in the spread from short term rates?

I'm telling you, unless we turn this boat around right now we are sailing into the perfect storm. The rich will be OK. The rest of us will be thrown under the bus.

Take the advice of a former broker (me) and if you have money in stocks, get it out NOW and put it in something solid -- though with where we are now I would be hard pressed to tell you what solid is. You may miss a little run up for a month or two but by spring if not sooner you will look pretty smart. This baby is gonna pop. Look for March.

[INTELBYTES]

101. kick

nt

[BaltExpat]

102. Wall Street Journal Comments on This Thread

FYI - posted to WSJ Best of the Web.